LongBench v2 / 6703f57bbb02136c067cd714 / Based on the energy outlook and policy scenarios presented in the report, which…

PREFACE
Energy security and climate change are very important issues in the world. At the Second 
East Asia Summit (EAS) in Cebu, Philippines in January 2007, the leaders of the region 
declared that East Asia could mitigate problems on these two issues through strong 
leadership on several countermeasures. These include promoting energy conservation, 
and utilising biofuels, and adopting cleaner use of coal. 
Two groups were designated to assist in implementing the countermeasures mentioned 
above: the Energy Cooperation Task Force (ECTF) and the Economic Research Institute 
for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA). The ECTF is responsible for supporting the efforts of the 
EAS and its Energy Ministers Meeting to promote cooperation on policies to implement 
these countermeasures. ERIA is responsible for studying the potential impacts of the 
countermeasures and is focusing its energy studies in two areas: (i) promotion of energy 
conservation and (ii) utilisation of biofuels.
This report was prepared by the Working Group for Analysis of Energy Saving Potential 
in East Asia under the ERIA Energy Project. The report covers all research activities of 
the Working Group from August 2015 to May 2016, including methodology, estimated 
impacts of current energy-saving goals, and policy recommendations to the ECTF. 
The structure of this report is like the earlier editions because of the application of similar 
methodology. However, one important accomplishment of this study is the development 
of energy efficiency targets for the countries that did not have targets when this project 
started in 2007. It could be said that those countries started adopting energy efficiency as 
an important energy policy as a result of this study.
This report hopefully contributes to mitigating problems related to energy security and 
climate change by increasing understanding of the potential for energy savings of a range 
of energy efficiency goals, action plans, and policies. It also discusses several key insights 
for policy development.
Shigeru Kimura
Leader of the Working Group
2019


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study is a joint effort of Working Group members from the East Asia Summit countries, 
the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), and The Institute of 
Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ). We would like to acknowledge the support provided 
by everyone involved. We especially take this opportunity to thank the members of the 
Working Group, ERIA’s energy team, the International Affairs Division of the Agency for 
Natural Resources and Energy of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, 
and IEEJ’s energy outlook modelling team.
Special acknowledgement also goes to Shigeru Kimura, Han Phoumin, Yanfei Li, and 
Cecilya Laksmiwati Malik for their technical editing of this report.
This study could not have been realised without the invaluable support and contribution 
provided by many people (please see details in the List of Project Members).
Special thanks go to ERIA Publications Department—Stefan Wesiak, Chrestella Budyanto, 
Fadriani Trianingsih, and their team of editors for helping edit the report and prepare it for 
publication.
The Authors


V
CONTENTS
Tables
Figures
Abbreviations and Acronyms
Project Members
Executive Summary
Energy Outlook and Saving Potential in the East Asia 
Region: Main Report
Han Phoumin, Shigeru Kimura, and Cecilya Laksmiwati Malik
Australia Country Report
Shamim Ahmad and Lu Zheng
Brunei Darussalam Country Report
Ministry of Energy and Industry, Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia Country Report
Chiphong Sarasy
China Country Report
Yu Hao and Mingyuan Zhao
India Country Report
Atul Kumar, Michael O. Dioha, and Lu Zheng
Indonesia Country Report
Cecilya Laksmiwati Malik
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
VII
IX
XIX
XXI
XXIV
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Japan Country Report
Seiya Endo
Republic of Korea Country Report
Kyung-Jin Boo
Lao PDR Country Report
Khamso Kouphokham
Malaysia Country Report
Zaharin Zulkifli
Myanmar Country Report
Tin Zaw Myint
New Zealand Country Report
Hien Dieu Thi Dang and Seiya Endo
Philippines Country Report
Danilo V. Vivar
Singapore Country Report
Loi Tian Sheng Allan
Thailand Country Report
Supit Padprem
Viet Nam Country Report
Nguyen Minh Bao
United States Country Report
Clara Gillispie and Seiya Endo
Results Summary Tables
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Chapter 10
Chapter 11
Chapter 12
Chapter 13
Chapter 14
Chapter 15
Chapter 16
Chapter 17
Chapter 18
Annex
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349


VII
TABLES
Main Report
Geographic, Demographic, and Economic Profiles, 2015
Economic Structure and Energy Consumption, 2015
Access to Electricity, %
Assumptions on Biofuels – Summary by Country
Reference Materials and their Estimation
Production Outlook of Oil
Production Outlook of Gas
Production Outlook of Coal
Summary of Energy-Saving Goals, Action Plans, and Policies 
Collected from Each EAS17 Working Group Member
Comparison of CO2 Emissions amongst the Scenarios in 
2040, Mt-C
Brunei Darussalam Country Report
Energy Supply and Consumption, 2015 (Mtoe)
Cambodia Country Report
Power Generation Facility by Fuel Type
Updated Cambodia Energy Information
BAU Installed Capacity
APS Installed Capacity
Cambodia’s INDC Targets
Results of CO2 Emissions Reduction by 2040 (Million Tons 
CO2)
Chapter 1
Table 1.1  
Table 1.2
Table 1.3
Table 1.4
Table 1.5
Table 1.6
Table 1.7
Table 1.8
Table 1.9
Table 1.10
Chapter 3
Table 3.1
Chapter 4
Table 4.1
Table 4.2
Table 4.3
Table 4.4
Table 4.5
Table 4.6
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Indonesia Country Report
NDC Emissions Reduction Targets for GHG
CO2 Emissions in 2030 and 2040, BAU and APS
Lao PDR Country Report
Assumption of Annual Average Annual Growth of GDP and 
Population
Malaysia Country Report
GDP Growth Assumptions by Sector to 2040 (% per year)
Population Growth Assumptions to 2040
Potential Mitigation Scenarios
Current Results of Key Indicators from APS 
Newly Proposed Mitigation Scenarios
Results for INDC Scenario
Myanmar Country Report
Installed Capacity and Power Generation by Fuel Type 
(2015–2016) 
Yearly Plan for the Construction of Power Plan Projects (MW) 
(2018–2022)
Installed Capacity and Power Supply in Scenarios for 2030
Chapter 7
Table 7.1
Table 7.2
Chapter 10
Table 10.1
Chapter 11
Table 11.1
Table 11.2
Table 11.3
Table 11.4
Table 11.5
Table 11.6
Chapter 12
Table 12.1
Table 12.2
Table 12.3
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IX
FIGURES
Main Report
Assumed Population in the EAS17 Region, 2015 and 2040
Assumed Average Annual Growth in Population, 2015–2040
Assumed Economic Activity in the EAS17 Region, 2015 and 
2040
Assumed Average Annual Growth in GDP, 2015–2040
Real GDP per Capita, 2015 and 2040
Thermal Efficiencies of Gas Electricity Generation
Thermal Efficiencies of Coal Electricity Generation
Share of Fuel Type in the Electricity Generation Mix in the 
EAS17 Region
Real Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal Imported Price Assumptions 
(Real prices in 2016 US$)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption Share by Sector (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption Share by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply in EAS17 (1990–2040)
Share of Primary Energy Mix by Source (1990–2040)
Power Generation in EAS17 (1990–2040)
Share of Power Generation Mix in EAS17 (1990–2040)
Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators in EAS17
Total Final Energy Consumption, BAU and APS
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU vs APS
Primary Energy Supply by Sources, BAU and APS
Total Primary Energy Supply – BAU and APS
Total CO2 Emissions – BAU and APS
Investment Share by Power Source (EAS17–BAU)
Investment Share by Power Source (EAS17–APS)
Investment Share by Power Source (ASEAN–BAU)
Investment Share by Power Source (ASEAN–APS)
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1
Figure 1.2
Figure 1.3
Figure 1.4
Figure 1.5
Figure 1.6
Figure 1.7
Figure 1.8
Figure 1.9
Figure 1.10
Figure 1.11
Figure 1.12
Figure 1.13
Figure 1.14
Figure 1.15
Figure 1.16
Figure 1.17
Figure 1.18
Figure 1.19
Figure 1.20
Figure 1.21
Figure 1.22
Figure 1.23
Figure 1.24
Figure 1.25
Figure 1.26
Figure 1.27
Figure 1.28
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X
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Energy Infrastructure Investment (EAS17, BAU–APS)
Energy Infrastructure Investment (ASEAN, BAU–APS)
Australia Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type
Power Generation under BAU
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS
CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU and APS
Brunei Darussalam Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Reduction of Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Cambodia Country Report
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU
Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU
Energy and CO2 Indicators
Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply by 
2040 
Comparison of Scenarios of Electricity Generation by 2040
Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions, 2040 
Figure 1.29
Figure 1.30
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1
Figure 2.2
Figure 2.3
Figure 2.4
Figure 2.5
Figure 2.6
Figure 2.7
Figure 2.8
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1
Figure 3.2
Figure 3.3
Figure 3.4
Figure 3.5
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1
Figure 4.2
Figure 4.3
Figure 4.4
Figure 4.5
Figure 4.6
Figure 4.7
Figure 4.8
Figure 4.9
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XI
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS
Total Primary Energy Saving Potential by Fuel Type, BAU vs APS
CO2 Emissions by Fuel Type, BAU and APS
China Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Power Generation, BAU (1990–2040)
Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
India Country Report
Grid Power Sources (GW) and their Percentage Shares as of 
June 2017
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU (1990–2040)
Electricity Generation under BAU (1990–2040)
CO2 Emissions under BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption under APSs
Final Energy Consumption, BAU vs APS5 (2015 and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Sector, BAU vs APS5
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU vs APS5 (2015 and 2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU vs APS5 
(2015 and 2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU vs APSs
CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU vs APS5 
(2015 and 2040)
Figure 4.10
Figure 4.11
Figure 4.12
Figure 4.13
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1
Figure 5.2
Figure 5.3
Figure 5.4
Figure 5.5
Figure 5.6
Figure 5.7
Figure 5.8
Figure 5.9
Figure 5.10
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1
Figure 6.2
Figure 6.3
Figure 6.4
Figure 6.5
Figure 6.6
Figure 6.7
Figure 6.8
Figure 6.9
Figure 6.10
Figure 6.11
Figure 6.12
Figure 6.13
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Figures


XII
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Indonesia Country Report
Energy Efficiency and Conservation Assumptions
Final Energy Consumption by Sector (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040))
Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
Power Generation by Fuel Type (TWh) (1990–2040))
Thermal Efficiency, BAU (2015–2040)
Energy Intensity and Other Energy Indicators (1990=100)
Comparison of Scenarios of Total Primary Energy Supply by 
2040
Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation by 2040
Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions by 2040
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(2015–2040)
Power Generation Mix, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Japan Country Report
Annual Growth Rate of GDP and Population
Thermal Efficiency, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Source, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
Indices of Energy and CO2 Intensities, Energy per Capita,and 
Carbonisation Rate, BAU (1990–2040) 
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 
2040)
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1
Figure 7.2
Figure 7.3
Figure 7.4
Figure 7.5
Figure 7.6
Figure 7.7
Figure 7.8
Figure 7.9
Figure 7.10
Figure 7.11
Figure 7.12
Figure 7.13
Figure 7.14
Figure 7.15
Figure 7.16
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1
Figure 8.2
Figure 8.3
Figure 8.4
Figure 8.5
Figure 8.6
Figure 8.7
Figure 8.8
Figure 8.9
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XIII
CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion, BAU and APS 
(1990, 2015, and 2040)
Republic of Korea Country Report
Assumptions for GDP and Population (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS
Final Energy Consumption by Energy, BAU and APS
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Energy Type, BAU and APS (1990–
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APSs
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Energy and Carbon Intensities (1990–2040)
Lao PDR Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector (1990–2040)
Sectors’ Share in Final Energy Consumption (1990–2040)
Fuels’ Share in Total Final Energy Consumption (1990–2040) 
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source (1990–2040)
Fuels’ Share in Primary Energy Supply (1990–2040)
Electricity Generation in 2040
Technologies’ Share in Electricity Generation (1990–2040)
Energy Intensity and Other Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply in 
2040
Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation in 2040
Comparison of Scenarios to Carbon Emissions in 2040
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Figure 8.10
Chapter 9
Figure 9.1
Figure 9.2
Figure 9.3
Figure 9.4
Figure 9.5
Figure 9.6
Figure 9.7
Figure 9.8
Figure 9.9
Figure 9.10
Figure 9.11
Figure 9.12
Chapter 10
Figure 10.1
Figure 10.2
Figure 10.3
Figure 10.4
Figure 10.5
Figure 10.6
Figure 10.7
Figure 10.8
Figure 10.9
Figure 10.10
Figure 10.11
Figure 10.12
Figure 10.13
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Figures


XIV
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Primary Energy Demand by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Final Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU vs APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Malaysia Country Report
Modelling Structure
Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Share of Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Share of Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU 
(1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Share of Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–
2040)
Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Share of Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Myanmar Country Report
Final Energy Demand by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040) 
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU (1990–2040)
Power Generation Mix, BAU (1990–2040)
Figure 10.14
Figure 10.15
Figure 10.16
Figure 10.17
Figure 10.18
Chapter 11
Figure 11.1
Figure 11.2
Figure 11.3
Figure 11.4
Figure 11.5
Figure 11.6
Figure 11.7
Figure 11.8
Figure 11.9
Figure 11.10
Figure 11.11
Figure 11.12
Figure 11.13
Figure 11.14
Figure 11.15
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1
Figure 12.2
Figure 12.3
Figure 12.4
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XV
Energy Intensity, CO2 Intensity, and Energy per Capita 
(1990–2040)
Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply in 
2040
Comparison of Scenarios of Electricity Generation in 2040
Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions in 2040
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Evolution of Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Electricity Demand, BAU and APS (2015–2040)
Power Generation Capacity in 2030, BAU and APS
New Zealand Country Report
GDP and Population (1990–2040)
Power Generation by Fuel, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Intensity and Energy per Capita Indicator, 
BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 
2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(1990, 2015, and 2040)
Figure 12.5
Figure 12.6
Figure 12.7
Figure 12.8
Figure 12.9
Figure 12.10
Figure 12.11
Figure 12.12
Figure 12.13
Figure 12.14
Chapter 13
Figure 13.1
Figure 13.2
Figure 13.3
Figure 13.4
Figure 13.5
Figure 13.6
Figure 13.7
Figure 13.8
Figure 13.9
Figure 13.10
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Figures


XVI
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Philippines Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990, 2015, and 
2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Energy Intensity, Energy Per Capita, and Income Elasticity of 
Energy (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply 
(2040)
Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation (2040)
Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions (2040)
Comparison of Total Final Energy Consumption in 2040, BAU 
and APS 
Comparison of Final Energy Consumption in 2040, BAU and 
APS 
Comparison of Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type in 
2040, BAU and APS
Comparison of Total Primary Energy Supply in 2040 (BAU, 
INDC, and APS5)
Comparison of Total CO2 in 2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5)
Comparison of Final Energy Consumption by Sector in 2040 
(BAU, INDC, and APS5)
Comparison of Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type in 
2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5)
Singapore Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
Electricity Generation, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APSs
Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APSs
Chapter 14
Figure 14.1
Figure 14.2
Figure 14.3
Figure 14.4
Figure 14.5
Figure 14.6
Figure 14.7
Figure 14.8
Figure 14.9
Figure 14.10
Figure 14.11
Figure 14.12
Figure 14.13
Figure 14.14
Figure 14.15
Figure 14.16
Chapter 15
Figure 15.1
Figure 15.2
Figure 15.3
Figure 15.4
Figure 15.5
Figure 15.6
Figure 15.7
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XVII
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS5 (2015 
and 2040)
Electricity Generation,  BAU and APSs
CO2 Emissions from Energy Supply, BAU and APS5 (2015 
and 2040)
Thailand Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Demand by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 
2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(1990, 2015, and 2040)
Viet Nam Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU (1990–2040)
Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APSs
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU vs APS (2015 and 
2040)
Primary Energy Saving Potential by Fuel Type, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Evolution of Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 
2015, and 2040)
CO2 Emissions by Fuel Type, BAU and APSs
Figure 15.8
Figure 15.9
Figure15.10
Chapter 16
Figure 16.1
Figure 16.2
Figure 16.3
Figure 16.4
Figure 16.5
Figure 16.6
Figure 16.7
Figure 16.8
Figure 16.9
Figure 16.10
Chapter 17
Figure 17.1
Figure 17.2
Figure 17.3
Figure 17.4
Figure17. 5
Figure 17.6
Figure 17.7
Figure 17.8
Figure 17.9
Figure 17.10
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Figures


XVIII
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Evolution of CO2 Emissions, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 
2040)
GHG Reduction Targets, APS5 vs INDC
United States Country Report
GDP and Population (1990–2040)
Per Capita GDP (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Changes in Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU 
(1990–2040)
Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Power Generation under BAU (1990–2040)
Share of Power Generation Mix under BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU vs APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU vs APS (2015 and 2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU vs APS (2015 
and 2040)
CO2 Emissions Trends under APS (1990–2040)
Figure 17.11
Figure 17.12
Chapter 18
Figure 18.1
Figure 18.2
Figure 18.3
Figure 18.4
Figure 18.5
Figure 18.6
Figure 18.7
Figure 18.8
Figure 18.9
Figure 18.10
Figure 18.11
329
331
337
337
339
340
341
341
342
343
344
345
346


XIX
ABBREVIATIONS AND 
ACRONYMS
AAGR 
average annual growth rate
APS 
Alternative Policy Scenario
ASEAN  
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
BAU  
Business-As-Usual
BCA 
Building and Construction Authority (Singapore)
BPS 
Central Bureau of Statistics (Indonesia)
CCS  
carbon capture and storage
CNG  
compressed natural gas
CO2  
carbon dioxide
DOE 
Department of Energy (Philippines)
DSM 
demand-side management
EAS  
East Asia Summit
ECTF  
Energy Cooperation Task Force
EEC  
energy efficiency and conservation
EPU 
Economic Planning Unit (Malaysia)
ERIA  
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia
FiT  
feed-in tariff
GDP 
gross domestic product
GHG  
greenhouse gas 
GTMP 
Green Technology Master Plan (Malaysia)
GWh  
gigawatt-hour
HDB 
Housing and Development Board (Singapore)
IEEJ  
The Institute for Energy Economics, Japan
INDC 
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
KEN 
National Energy Policy (Indonesia)
ktoe  
thousand tons of oil equivalent
kWh 
kilowatt-hour
LEAP 
Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System
LPG 
liquefied petroleum gas
LSS 
large-scale solar
MEF 
Ministry of Economy and Finance (Cambodia)


XX
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
MEGTW 
Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water (Malaysia)
MELS 
Mandatory Energy Labelling Scheme (Singapore)
MEMR 
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (Indonesia)
MEPS 
Minimum Energy Performance Standards (Singapore)
METI  
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan)
Mtoe  
million tons of oil equivalent
Mt-C  
million tons of carbon
MW  
megawatts
MWh  
megawatt-hour
MWp 
megawatt-peak
NDC 
Nationally Determined Contributions
NEB 
National Energy Balance (Malaysia)
NEM 
net energy metering
NRE 
new and renewable energy
NREP 
National Renewable Energy Program (Philippines)
OECD  
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
PPP 
purchasing power parity
PRC 
People’s Republic of China
RE 
renewable energy
RPS  
Renewable Portfolio Standards
SEDA 
Sustainable Energy Development Authority (Malaysia)
TCF 
trillion cubic feet
TCM 
trillion cubic metres
toe  
tons of oil equivalent
t-C 
tons of carbon
TFEC 
total final energy consumption
TPES  
total primary energy supply
Tscf 
trillion standard cubic feet
TWh  
terawatt-hour
US$  
United States dollar


XXI
PROJECT MEMBERS
SHIGERU KIMURA (LEADER): Special Advisor to President on Energy Affairs, 
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) 
PHOUMIN HAN (SUB-LEADER): Energy Economist, ERIA
SHIGEKI KAMIYAMA (COORDINATOR): Director General for Research 
Administration, ERIA
YANFEI LI (COORDINATOR): Energy Economist, ERIA
HIEN DIEU THI DANG: Senior Analyst, Energy Information, Strategy and Programme, 
Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, New Zealand
SHAMIM AHMAD: Assistant Director, Policy Analysis and Implementation Division, 
Department of the Environment and Energy, Australia
CLARA ELIZABETH GILLISPIE: Senior Director, Trade, Economics, and Energy 
Affairs, National Bureau of Asia Research, United States
RIFDI SAHARI: Economic Officer, Strategy, Energy Commercial and Data Division, 
Energy and Industry Department, Prime Minister’s Office, Brunei Darussalam
CHIPHONG SARASY: Chief, Renewable Energy Office, Department of New and 
Renewable Energy, Ministry of Mines and Energy, Cambodia
YU HAO: Associated Professor, School of Management and Economics, Beijing 
Institute of Technology, China
ATUL KUMAR: Professor, Department of Energy and Environment, The Energy and 
Resources Institute of Advanced Studies, India


XXII
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
CECILYA LAKSMIWATI MALIK: Energy Policy Planning Expert (Former Senior 
Scientist and Researcher of BPPT), Indonesia 
KIMINORI MAEKAWA: Senior Coordinator and Manager, The Institute of Energy 
Economics, Japan (IEEJ)
SHIGERU SUEHIRO: Senior Economist and Manager, The Energy Data and Modelling 
Center, IEEJ
ZHENG LU: Senior Economist, The Energy Data and Modelling Center, IEEJ
MOMOKO AOSHIMA: Senior Economist, The Energy Data and Modelling Center, IEEJ
SEIYA ENDO: Economist, IEEJ
KYUNG-JIN BOO: Professor, Urban Affairs and Public Policy, Technology and 
Management, Economics and Policy Program, College of Engineering, Seoul National 
University, Korea
KHAMSO KOUPHOKHAM: Acting Director-General, Department of Law, Ministry of 
Energy and Mines, Lao PDR
ZAHARIN ZULKIFLI: Senior Regulatory Officer, Malaysia Energy Information 
Hub, Energy Management and Service Quality Development Department, Energy 
Commission, Malaysia
TIN ZAW MYINT: Director, Oil and Gas Planning Department, Ministry of Electricity 
and Energy, Myanmar
DANILO V. VIVAR: Chief, Policy Formulation and Research Division, Energy Policy and 
Planning Bureau, Department of Energy, Philippines
ALLAN LOI: Energy Analyst, Energy Economics Department, Energy Studies Institute, 
National University of Singapore, Singapore
SUPIT PADPREM: Director, Energy Analysis and Forecast Group, Energy Forecast and 
Information Technology Center, Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy, 
Thailand


XXIII
NGUYEN MINH BAO: Former Senior Researcher, Institute of Energy, Viet Nam
LEONG SIEW MENG: Consultant, Green Tech Solution Inc. (ASHRAE, Malaysia 
Chapter)
Project Members


XXIV
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019


XXV
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia–East Asia Summit (ERIA-EAS) 
Energy Outlook was updated in 2017–2018 through a revision of macro assumptions, 
such as economic and population growth as well as crude oil prices under the current 
lower price situation. In addition, this outlook incorporates more recent information on the 
EAS17 member countries’ energy-saving goals and action plans, and power development 
plans such as renewable electricity. 
The outlook still focuses on analysing the additional energy savings that might be achieved 
by the individual countries above and beyond the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario 
projection. It continues to examine two scenarios, the BAU scenario and the Alternative 
Policy Scenario (APS), and predicts energy supply, consumption, and CO2 emissions from 
2015 until 2040. The APS includes not only more ambitious energy-saving targets but 
also rapid advances in low-carbon energy technologies, especially renewable energy.
Under the BAU scenario, sustained population and economic growth will significantly 
increase the total final energy consumption (TFEC) by 1.6 times in 2015–2040. The total 
primary energy supply (TPES) in the EAS17 region is projected to grow at a slightly slower 
pace of 1.5% per year. It is projected to increase from 7,488 Mtoe in 2015 to 10,943 
Mtoe in 2040. Coal will remain the largest share of the TPES, but its growth is expected 
to be slower, increasing at 1.3% per year. Consequently, the share of coal in the TPES is 
forecasted to decline from 41.4% in 2015 to 38.9% in 2040. Increasing the use of clean 
coal technology and development of carbon capture storage technology will be critical for 
the coal power plants in this region to mitigate CO2 emissions and become carbon free.
Fossil fuel energy consisting of coal, oil, and gas will still be dominant in 2040 and its 
share under the BAU scenario will be 84.1%. If EAS17 countries remain dedicated to 
implementing their energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) policies and increase low-
carbon energy technologies, such as nuclear power generation and solar photovoltaic 
(PV)/wind (APS), the EAS17 region could achieve fossil fuel savings of 23.4% and 
the fossil fuel share could fall to 76.6%. CO2 emissions would be reduced significantly 
about 24.2% from BAU to the APS consequently. In view of this, EAS countries need to 
implement their EEC and renewable energy policies (energy saving targets and action 
plans) as scheduled. The targets and action plans that will be applied across sectors – 


XXVI
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
industry, transport, residential, and commercial – should be appropriate and feasible. 
Governments of EAS17 countries are encouraged to support the activities of energy 
service companies as such is crucial in achieving energy efficiency and savings. 
Renewable energy such as hydro, geothermal, solar PV, wind, and biomass will also 
contribute to the expected reduction of fossil fuel consumption, which will result in a 
mitigation of CO2 emissions. To increase the share of renewable energy in the primary 
energy mix, appropriate government policies will be crucial. Policies such as net metering, 
Renewable Portfolio Standards, and feed-in tariff have been implemented in some 
EAS17 member countries and have accelerated the deployment of renewable energy at 
appropriate levels. 
Energy supply security has become a top priority energy issue for the EAS17 region. 
Implementing EEC measures and increasing renewable energy shares will certainly 
contribute to maintaining regional energy security through the reduction of imported 
fossil fuel consumption and increasing the use of domestic energy. In addition, regional 
energy networks, such as the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline and the ASEAN Power Grid, 
and oil stockpiling are recommended to maintain energy supply security. Nuclear power 
generation is another option for securing the energy supply in this region.
The ERIA-EAS17 Outlook 2018 assessed the Intended Nationally Determined 
Contributions (INDC)/NDC reported by EAS17 countries. Some INDC/NDC might be 
too ambitious because CO2 emissions targets seem to be much higher than their APS 
targets. Governments should review their INDC/NDC applying energy outlook models 
and prepare appropriate CO2 emission targets.
This year, 2019, the Energy Outlook includes an estimation of the investment cost 
required for power generation and the whole energy infrastructure, including liquefied 
natural gas (LNG)–receiving terminals and oil refineries. The analysis results indicate that 
the EAS17 region will need an investment in power generation of around US3.5trillionfortheBAUscenarioandUS4 trillion for the APS to meet electricity demand by 2040. 
The APS will be higher than the BAU scenario because of the shift to low-carbon power 
sources, such as nuclear and renewable energy.


XXVII
The required investment cost of refinery and LNG-receiving terminals in the EAS17 
will be US367billionandUS132 billion, respectively, in the BAU scenario due to the 
increase in oil demand especially in the road transport sector and natural gas demand in 
the power generation sector. Investment in the APS is expected to be reduced to US60billionforrefineriesandUS75 billion for LNG-receiving terminals, respectively, due to 
promotion of energy efficiency. These investment costs will be much lower than power 
generation. Power generation and refineries and LNG-receiving terminals have different 
capacity factors. Usually the capacity factor of power generation is much lower (around 
10%–33%) than refineries and LNG-receiving terminals.
Executive Summary


X
X
V
I
I
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019


1
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND SAVING 
POTENTIAL IN THE EAST ASIA 
REGION: MAIN REPORT 
1.   Introduction
Sustained population and economic growth in the East Asia Summit (EAS) region (the 
original EAS plus the United States of America [EAS17]) are the key drivers for the 
projected increasing energy demand for both primary and final energy consumption 
to nearly 50% from 2015 to 2040, reflecting an annual growth rate of about 1.6%. This 
increasing energy demand threatens the region’s energy security. Hence, potential energy 
saving is key to reducing energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. 
In 2007, leaders from member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations 
(ASEAN), as well as Australia, the People’s Republic of China (henceforth, China), India, 
Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand (the original EAS), adopted the Cebu 
Declaration, which focused on energy security. The leaders agreed to promote energy 
efficiency, new renewable energy, and the clean use of coal. Subsequently, the EAS Energy 
Cooperation Task Force (ECTF) was established in response to the Cebu Declaration, 
and Japan proposed to undertake a study on energy savings and the potential of reducing 
CO2 emissions. This is an agreed area of cooperation on which the Economic Research 
Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), through the EAS Energy Ministers Meeting, 
officially requested to support studies.
CHAPTER 1
Han Phoumin, Energy Economist, Economic Research Institute for 
ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Shigeru Kimura, Special Advisor on Energy Affairs to the ERIA 
President
Cecilya Laksmiwati Malik, Regional Consultant on Energy Policy 
Planning


2
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
This study shows the energy saving potential using the Business-As-Usual (BAU) 
scenario and Alternative Policy Scenarios (APS). The BAU scenario was developed for 
each EAS country, outlining future sectoral and economy-wide energy consumption, 
assuming no significant changes to government policies. The APS was set to examine the 
potential impacts if additional energy efficiency goals, action plans, or policies being or 
likely to be considered were developed. The difference between the BAU scenario and 
the APS in both final and primary energy supply represents potential energy savings. 
The difference in CO2 emissions between the two scenarios represents the potential for 
reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The scope of analysis of this outlook covers 
the original EAS – the original EAS composed of 10 ASEAN+6 countries mentioned on 
page 1 – plus the United States of America (US) (EAS17). Under the EAS’s initiative of 
energy cooperation is an energy research platform called the Energy Research Institutes 
Network, of which the US is a member. Therefore, the scope of this outlook extends to 
include the US. This publication uses the terms EAS and EAS17. The EAS refers to the 10 
ASEAN+6 countries before 2012 and 10 ASEAN+8 countries after 2013. EAS17 refers 
to the 10 ASEAN+7 countries, meaning, the original EAS plus the US.
The findings of this study continue to shed light on the policy implications for decision-
making to ensure that the region can enjoy both economic growth and investment 
opportunities without compromising the aversion to the threat to energy security and of 
environmental problems due to rising CO2 emissions.
1.1.  The East Asia Summit
The EAS17 is a collection of diverse countries, with wide variations amongst them in 
terms of per capita income, standards of living, energy resource endowments, climate, 
and energy consumption per capita. It is composed of the 10 ASEAN member countries – 
Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), 
Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam – and seven 
other countries – Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea), 
New Zealand, and the US.
Whereas some EAS17 countries are mature economies, the majority are developing 
economies. Several countries have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of less 
than US11,000(in2010prices1).Countrieswithmatureeconomieshavehigherenergyconsumptionpercapita,whereasdevelopingcountriesgenerallyhavelowerenergyconsumptionpercapita.Alargepercentageofthepeopleindevelopingcountriesstillmeettheirenergyneedsusingmainlytraditionalbiomassfuels.1AllUS (US dollars) in this document are stated at constant year 2010 values unless specified.


3
Main Report
These differences partly explain why energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) goals, 
action plans, and policies are assigned different priorities across countries. Developed 
economies may be very keen in reducing energy consumption, whereas developing 
countries tend to emphasise economic growth and improving the standard of living. 
However, as the economies of these countries grow, energy consumption per capita is 
expected to grow as well. 
Despite the differences amongst the 17 countries, the leaders agreed that the EAS could 
play a significant role in community building’ which could be an important cornerstone in 
developing regional cooperation in the years to come. 
Table 1.1 shows the geographic, demographic, and economic profiles of the EAS17 
countries. Table 1.2 shows their economic structure and energy consumption profiles.
Table 1.1: Geographic, Demographic, and Economic Profiles, 2015
Land Area 
(thousand 
km2)1 
Population 
(million)
Population 
Density 
(persons/km2)
GDP (billion 
2010 US)GDPperCapita(2010US/person)
Australia
7,682
23.79
3.10
1,355
56,953
Brunei Darussalam
5.3
0.42
79.03
14
33,344
Cambodia
177
15.52
87.91
16
1,025
China
9,388
1,371.22
146.06
8,910
6,498
India
2,973
1,311.05
440.96
2,288
1,745
Indonesia
1,812
258.16
142.51
988
3,828
Japan
365
126.96
348.25
5,986
47,150
Korea, Rep. of
97
51.07
523.89
1,267
24,801
Lao PDR
231
6.66
28.87
5
764
Malaysia
329
30.72
93.51
330
10,740
Myanmar
653
52.40
80.24
71
1,346
New Zealand
263
4.60
17.45
169
36,801
Philippines
298
101.72
341.14
266
2,616
Singapore
0.7
5.54
7,806.77
289
52,245
Thailand
511
65.73
128.66
394
5,989
Viet Nam
310
91.71
295.77
155
1,685
United States
9,147
321.42
35.14
16,598
51,638
GDP = gross domestic product, km2 = square kilometre.
Source: World Bank (2018) World Databank: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/source/world-development-indicators# (accessed: 27 May 2018).


4
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 1.2: Economic Structure and Energy Consumption, 2015
GDP
(Billion 
2010 
US$)
Share of 
Industry
in GDP, %
Share of 
Services
in GDP, %
Share of 
Agriculture
in GDP, %
Primary 
Energy 
Consumption 
(Mtoe)
Energy 
Consumption 
per Capita 
(toe/person)
Australia
1,355
25.4
72.0
2.6
125
5.3
Brunei Darussalam
14
61.4
37.5
1.1
3
7.8
Cambodia
16
29.8
41.5
28.6
7
0.5
China
8,910
40.9
50.2
8.8
2,973
2.2
India
2,288
29.6
52.9
17.5
851
0.6
Indonesia
988
41.3
44.7
13.9
229
0.9
Japan
5,986
28.9
70.0
1.1
430
3.4
Korea, Rep. of
1,267
38.3
59.4
2.3
273
5.3
Lao PDR
5
31.0
49.4
19.7
9
1.4
Malaysia
330
39.1
52.4
8.5
71
2.3
Myanmar
71
34.5
38.8
26.8
20
0.4
New Zealand
169
..
..
..
21
4.5
Philippines
266
30.9
58.8
10.3
47
0.5
Singapore
289
26.1
73.8
0.0
34
6.1
Thailand
394
36.4
54.9
8.7
135
2.1
Viet Nam
155
37.0
44.2
18.9
70
0.8
United States
16,598
20.0
78.9
1.1
2,188
6.8
GDP = gross domestic product, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: World Bank (2018) World Databank: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/source/world-development-indicators# (accessed 27 May 2018).
1.2.  Objective and Rationale 
This study aims to analyse the potential impacts of proposed additional energy-saving 
goals, action plans, and policies in the EAS17 region on energy consumption, by fuel and 
sector, and GHG emissions. The study also provides a platform for energy collaboration and 
capacity building amongst EAS17 countries on energy modelling and policy development.
The study supports the Cebu Declaration (ASEAN Secretariat, 2007), which highlighted 
several goals such as:
• 
improving the efficiency and environmental performance of fossil fuel use;
• 
reducing the dependence on conventional fuels through intensified EEC programmes, 
increased share of hydropower, expansion of renewable energy systems and biofuel 
production/utilisation, and, for interested parties, civilian nuclear power; and 


5
• 
mitigating GHG emissions through effective policies and measures, thus contributing 
to global climate change abatement.
The Government of Japan asked the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East 
Asia (ERIA) to conduct a study on energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction potential in 
the East Asia region. Japan is the coordinating country of the energy efficiency work stream 
under the ECTF. As a result, the Working Group for this study on the Analysis of Energy 
Savings Potential was convened. Members from all EAS17 countries are represented in 
the Working Group to support this study. 
2.   Data and Methodology 
2.1.  The Scenarios 
The study continues to examine two scenarios, as in the studies conducted annually from 
2007 to the present: a BAU scenario reflecting each country’s current goals, action plans, 
and policies; and an APS that includes additional goals, action plans, and policies reported 
every year to the East Asia Energy Ministers Meeting (EAS–EMM). The latest updated 
policies were reported at the 11th EAS–EMM held on 28 September 2017 in Manila, 
Philippines.
One might be tempted to call the APS a ‘maximum effort’ case, but that would not 
be accurate. One reason is that goals, action plans, and policies for reducing energy 
consumption are still relatively new in most countries. Many potential EEC policies and 
technological options have not been examined or incorporated in the APS. 
In 2014, the APS assumptions were grouped into four: (i) more efficient final energy 
consumption (APS1), (ii) more efficient thermal power generation (APS2), (iii) 
higher consumption of new and renewable energy (NRE) and biofuels (APS3), and 
(d) introduction or higher utilisation of nuclear energy (APS4). In addition to these 
four scenarios, the 2018 outlook also compares the APS to the Intended Nationally 
Determined Contributions (INDC) or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) if the 
countries can achieve their commitment pledged at the COP21.2
2 
COP stands for Conference of the Parties, referring to the countries that have signed up to the 1992 United Nations 
Framework Convention on Climate Change. The COP in Paris is the 21st such conference.
Main Report


6
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The energy models can estimate the individual impacts of these assumptions on both 
primary energy supply and CO2 emissions. The combination of these assumptions 
constitutes the assumptions of the APS. The main report highlights only the BAU scenario 
and the APS. However, each country report will analyse all the APS from APS1 to APS4. 
Detailed assumptions for each APS are follows:
• 
The assumptions in APS1 are the reduction targets in sectoral final energy 
consumption, assuming more efficient technologies are utilised and energy-saving 
practices are implemented in the industrial, transport, residential, commercial, and 
even the agricultural sectors for some countries. This scenario resulted in less primary 
energy and CO2 emissions in proportion to the reduction in final energy consumption.
• 
APS2 assumes the utilisation of more efficient thermal power plant technologies in 
the power sector. This assumption resulted in lower primary energy supply and CO2 
emissions in proportion to the efficiency improvement in generating thermal power. 
The most efficient coal and natural gas combined–cycle technologies are assumed to 
be utilised for new power plant construction in this scenario. 
• 
APS3 assumes higher contributions of NRE for electricity generation and utilisation 
of liquid biofuels in the transport sector. This results in lower CO2 emissions as NRE 
is considered carbon-neutral or would not emit additional CO2 in the atmosphere. 
However, primary energy supply may not decrease as NRE, like biomass and 
geothermal energy, is assumed to have lower efficiencies compared with fossil fuel–
fired generation when electricity generated from these NRE sources is converted into 
their primary energy equivalent.
• 
APS4 assumes the introduction of nuclear energy or a higher contribution of nuclear 
energy in countries already using this energy source. This scenario would produce lower 
CO2 emissions as nuclear energy emits minimal CO2. However, as the assumption of 
thermal efficiency when converting nuclear energy output into primary energy is only 
33%, primary energy supply is not expected to be lower than for the BAU scenario in 
this scenario.
All EAS17 countries are actively developing and implementing EEC goals, action plans, 
and policies, but progress so far has varied widely. Some countries are advanced in their 
efforts, whereas others are just getting started. A few countries already have significant 
energy-saving goals, action plans, and policies built into the BAU scenario, whereas others 
have only started to quantify their goals. However, significant potential does exist in these 
countries at the sectoral and economy-wide levels. 
Every country still has a great deal to learn from experience on what works and what does 
not work. It is worthwhile updating this study periodically, as the quality and scope of 
the national goals, action plans, and policies are likely to improve considerably over time, 
allowing for valuable collaboration across countries. 
 


7
2.2.  Data 
For consistency, the historical energy data used in this analysis came from the energy 
balances of the International Energy Agency (IEA) for Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries (IEA, 2017a; 2017b), 
except for the Lao PDR. Estimations of national energy data from the Lao PDR were made 
using the same methodology as that of the IEA. The socio-economic data for 17 countries 
were obtained from the World Bank’s online World Databank – World Development 
Indicators and Global Development Finance; the data of Myanmar were obtained from 
the United Nations Statistics Division statistical databases. Other data, such as those 
relating to transportation, buildings, and industrial production indices, were provided by 
the Working Group members from each EAS17 country where such data were available. 
Where official data were not available, estimates were obtained from other sources or 
developed by the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ).
2.3.  Methodology 
In 2007, the primary model used was IEEJ’s World Energy Outlook Model, which was also 
used in preparing the Asia/World Energy Outlook (IEEJ, 2014). In 2014, all 10 ASEAN 
member countries used their own energy models. The remaining countries provided the 
IEEJ their key assumptions on population and GDP growth; electric generation fuel mixes; 
and EEC goals, action plans, and policies. The IEEJ models were then used to develop 
energy projections for these countries. The next section briefly describes the energy 
models in this study. 
ASEAN countries. The energy models of ASEAN countries were developed using the 
Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) software, an accounting system 
used to develop projections of energy balance tables based on final energy consumption 
and energy input/output in the transformation sector. Final energy consumption is 
forecast using energy demand equations by energy and sector and future macroeconomic 
assumptions. For this study, all 10 member countries used the LEAP model. 
Other countries. Other countries used the IEEJ model, which has a macroeconomic 
module that calculates coefficients for various explanatory variables based on exogenously 
specified GDP growth rates. The macroeconomic module also projects prices for natural 
gas and coal based on exogenously specified oil price assumptions. Demand equations 
are econometrically calculated in another module using historical data, and future 
parameters are projected using the explanatory variables from the macroeconomic 
module. An econometric approach means that future demand and supply will be heavily 
Main Report


8
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
influenced by historical trends. However, the supply of energy and new technologies are 
treated exogenously. For electricity generation, the Working Group members were asked 
to specify assumptions about the future electricity generation mix in their respective 
countries by energy source. These assumptions were used to determine the future 
electricity generation mix. 
3.   Assumptions of the Study
Growth in energy consumption and GHG emissions is driven by various socio-economic 
factors. In the EAS17 region, these factors – including increasing population, sustained 
economic growth, increasing vehicle ownership, and increasing access to electricity – will 
tend to increase energy demand. Together they create what might be called a huge growth 
‘headwind’ that works against efforts to limit energy consumption. Understanding the 
nature and size of this ‘headwind’ is critical for any analysis of energy demand in the region. 
However, an increase in consumption of energy services is fundamental for achieving a 
range of socio-economic development goals. 
This section discusses the assumptions on key socio-economic indicators and energy 
policies for the EAS17 countries until 2040.
3.1.  Population 
In the models used for this study, changes in population to 2040 are set exogenously. 
No difference in population between the BAU scenario and the APS is assumed. The 
EAS17 countries, except China, submitted assumed changes in population based on the 
population projections from the United Nations. 
In 2015, the total population in the EAS17 region was about 3.84 billion. Based on the 
forecasts, it is projected to increase at an average annual rate of about 0.5%, reaching 
about 4.36 billion in 2040. Figure 1.1 shows the 2015 and projected 2040 population by 
country. 
Brunei Darussalam is generally assumed to have the fastest population growth rate, 
although the country has high per capita income (Figure 1.2). Except Brunei, the fastest 
growth rate is assumed to be in developing countries. China and Thailand are notable and 
significant exceptions, as they are expected to have relatively modest population growth. 
Nevertheless, by 2040, India and China are assumed to account for around 70% of the 


9
total population in the EAS17 region, with populations of around 1.39 billion for China 
and 1.61 billion for India. 
Countries with more mature economies tend to have slower population growth. New 
Zealand, the US, and Singapore are assumed to have low, but still significant, population 
growth. That of Korea is assumed to be roughly stable. Japan’s population is assumed to 
decline slowly throughout the projection period as the population continues to age.
Figure 1.1: Assumed Population in the EAS17 Region, 2015 and 2040
AUS = Australia, BRN = Brunei, EAS = East Asia Summit, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, IND = India, INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, 
 
KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines, SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand,  
VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America)
Source: World Bank (2018).
2015
2040
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Population (Million)
24
0.4
16
258
127
114
51
7
31
52
9
40
52
5
6
66
66
92
107
321
376
102
5
7
148
63
31
0.7
23
317
1,371
1,311
1,391
1,608
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10
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.2: Assumed Average Annual Growth in Population, 2015–2040
AUS = Australia, BRN = Brunei, EAS = East Asia Summit, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, IND = India, INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, 
 
KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines, SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand,  
VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America)
Source: World Bank (2018).
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Total
Population Growth Rate  (%/year)
1.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
1.3
1.0
-0.4
2.3
1.5
1.5
3.2.  Economic Activity 
In the models used for this study, assumed changes in economic output to 2040 were 
set exogenously. GDP data (in 2010 US$) were obtained from the World Development 
Indicators of the World Bank (2018). Assumed GDP growth rates to 2040 were submitted 
by all EAS17 countries. In general, these assumptions considered actual GDP growth 
rates from 2005 to 2015, which already reflect the economic recession and recovery in 
the US and other countries. No difference in growth rates was assumed between BAU 
and the APS. 
In 2015, the total GDP in the EAS17 region was about US39trillionin2010US constant 
price, accounting for about 51% of global GDP. The GDP of the region is assumed to grow 
at an average annual rate of about 3.5% from 2015 to 2040. This implies that, by 2040, 
total regional GDP will reach about US91.5trillionin2010US constant price. 


11
China is projected to be the largest economy in terms of real GDP (2010 USconstantprice)ofaboutUS31.1 trillion, followed by the US of about US27.7trillionby2040.IndiaandJapanarealsoprojectedtobethenextlargesteconomieswithprojectedGDPsofaboutUS11.5 trillion and 7.7trillion,respectively,at2010US constant price by 
2040 (Figure 1.3).
Long-term economic growth rates are assumed to be quite high in the developing 
countries, with the highest growth rates in India, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Philippines, Viet 
Nam, and Cambodia (Figure 1.4). Economic growth in other developing countries is also 
assumed to be relatively rapid. Brunei is expected to also have high GDP annual growth 
rate. For developed countries in EAS17, the US, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, and Australia 
are expected to have moderate annual GDP growth rate. Due to their large economies, 
the rapid growth in China, India, and Indonesia, together with the US, are likely to be 
especially significant for energy demand. 
Figure 1.3: Assumed Economic Activity in the EAS17 Region, 2015 and 2040
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Real GDP (Billion US$ in 2000 Prices)
2015
2040
1,355
2,510
8,910
11,486
2,288
4,052
5,986
1,267
2,272
7,705
988
31,116
14
55
16
5
330
71
169
289
155
394
266
61
23
775
316
276
511
663
16,598
27, 667
999
1,147
AUS = Australia, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, EAS = East Asia Summit, GDP = gross domestic product, IND = India, 
 
INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines,  
SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: World Bank (2018).
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12
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.4: Assumed Average Annual Growth in GDP, 2015–2040
AUS = Australia, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, GDP = gross domestic product, IND = India, INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, 
KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines, SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, 
VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: World Bank (2018).
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7,0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Total
Real GDP Growth Rate  (%/year)
 2.5 
0.1
2.4
3.8
6.7
 5.8 
 2.3 
 6.2 
 6.0 
 2.0 
 6.0 
2.1
3.5
 6.2 
 3.5 
1.0
 5.5 
 5.1 
 5.6 
The average real GDP (2010 US$ constant) per capita in the EAS17 region is assumed to 
increase from about US10,186in2015toaboutUS21,016 in 2040. However, there 
are, and will continue to be, significant differences in GDP per capita amongst EAS17 
countries (Figure 1.5). In 2015, per capita GDP (constant price US2010)rangedfromaboutUS1,025 in Cambodia to over US50,000inAustralia,theUS,andSingapore.In2040,percapitaGDPisassumedtorangefromaboutUS2,495 in the Lao PDR to over 
US$80,000 in Australia.


13
3.3.  Electricity Generation 
3.3.1. 
 Electricity generation thermal efficiency
The thermal efficiency of electricity generation reflects the amount of fuel required to 
generate a unit of electricity. Thermal efficiency was another exogenous assumption 
used in this study. Base year 2015 thermal efficiencies by fuel type (coal, gas, and oil) 
were derived from fossil fuel input and fuel output as electricity production. Thermal 
efficiencies by fuel (coal, gas, and oil) were projected by the following countries: Brunei 
Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, 
Thailand, and Viet Nam, and growth rates in thermal efficiency were derived from these 
projections. For the remaining countries, assumptions about the potential changes in 
thermal efficiency were based on IEEJ’s Asia/World Energy Outlook 2017.
Figure 1.5: Real GDP per Capita, 2015 and 2040
AUS = Australia, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, EAS = East Asia Summit, GDP = gross domestic product, IND = India, 
 
INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines,  
SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: World Bank (2018).
AUS
BRN
KHM CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Total
Real GDP per Capita (US$ in 2000 Prices/Person)
2015
2040
56,935
81,610
74,919
33,344
1,025
2,694
6,498
22,361
1,745
7,144
3,828
12,779
47,150
67,413
24,801
43,534
1,566
2,495
10,740
19,582
1,346
2,616
5,989
1,685
5,050
7,771
15,076
51,638
73,646
21,018
10,186
6,194
36,801
52,245
50,361
75,843
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
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14
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Thermal efficiencies may differ significantly amongst countries due to differences in 
technological availability, age, cost of technology, temperatures, and the cost and 
availability of fuel inputs. Thermal efficiency in the EAS17 countries is expected to improve 
considerably over time in the BAU scenario as more advanced generation technologies, 
such as natural gas combined-cycle and supercritical coal-fired power plants, become 
available. In many countries, there are also assumed to be additional improvements in the 
APS (Figures 1.6 and 1.7).
Figure 1.6: Thermal Efficiencies of Gas Electricity Generation
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, AUS = Australia, BAU = Business-As-Usual, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, IND = India,  
INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines,  
SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)’s database.
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Gas Thermal Efficiency (%)
38
28
-
-
- -
37
37
48
48
48
48
50
52
49
57
59
60
43
44
38
40
49
49
52
52
51
51
55
55
55
61
60
49
56
56
57
57
40
28
40
50
45
55
51
49
52
45
48
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
48
48


15
Figure 1.7: Thermal Efficiencies of Coal Electricity Generation
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, AUS = Australia, BAU = Business-As-Usual scenario, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, IND = India, 
INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines,  
SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)’s database.
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Coal Thermal Efficiency (%)
35
-
45
45
38
32
38
39
34
37
37
35
38
37
42
43
40
35
35
35
35
39
30
34
42
42
42
20
20
47
36
34
34
37
20
49
40
42
35
38
45
36
45
46
42
43
38
40
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
-
- -
3.4.1. 
  Electricity generation fuel mix
The combination of fuels used in electricity generation differs amongst countries, 
reflecting both historical and current conditions, including access to and cost of resources 
and technology. It was, therefore, an exogenous input to the model. It is an important 
input not only because it is a key driver of demand for primary fuels, but also because the 
fuel mix used can have important implications for GHG emissions. Figure 1.8 shows the 
projected electricity generation mix.
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16
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.8: Share of Fuel Type in the Electricity Generation Mix in the EAS17 Region
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, AUS = Australia, BAU = Business-As-Usual, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China,  
 
EAS = East Asia Summit, IND = India, INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, 
 
NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines, SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: Country Energy Saving Potential Report,  sub-report of this main report (2016).
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
Others
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Coal is projected to remain the dominant source of electricity generation in the EAS17 
region in both the BAU scenario and the APS. However, the share of coal in electricity 
generation in the region is projected to decline from about 48% in BAU to about 35.8% in 
the APS by 2040, as countries are assumed to implement policies designed to reduce the 
emissions intensity of electricity generation. In the APS, the share of lower emission fuels 
such as hydro, nuclear, and non-hydro renewable energy are expected to be higher than in 
the BAU scenario on average. The use of oil in generating electricity is assumed to decline 
to almost negligible levels across the region. 
3.4.2  Access to electricity
Many households in developing countries lack access to electricity, and resolving this 
problem is a major development goal. At the Working Group meetings, several developing 
countries reported on initiatives to significantly expand access to electricity in their 
countries by 2040. Although this increasing access to electricity is one of the drivers 
of increasing energy demand in the EAS17 region, it is not explicitly represented in the 
model used for this study. Nevertheless, the impact of increasing access to electricity 
on electricity demand should be largely reflected through the increased demand for 


17
electricity because of the relatively rapid GDP growth that is assumed to be experienced 
in these same countries.
Table 1.3 shows electricity access in EAS17. It also informs the progress of access 
to electricity in urban versus rural areas in 1990–2012, and a national data on energy 
access in 2016. Whereas tremendous progress of 100% energy access has been observed 
in Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Korea, Japan, 
Australia, the US, and New Zealand, some Southeast Asian countries have struggled to 
improve energy access for their population.
Table 1.3: Access to Electricity, %
1990
2000
2012
2016
Rural 
Urban National
Rural 
Urban
National
Rural 
Urban National National
Cambodia
5.0
36.6
19.2
9.0
49.9
16.6
18.8
91.3
31.1
49.8
Myanmar
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
32*
57.0
Lao PDR
39.7
100.0
51.5
40.0
68.7
46.3
54.8
97.9
70.0
87.1
Brunei Darussalam
56.4
70.5
65.7
61.2
72.7
69.4
67.1
79.0
76.2
100.0
India
38.7
86.5
50.9
48.4
98.6
62.3
69.7
98.2
78.7
84.5
Indonesia
.
.
66.9
.
.
.
.
.
74**
97.6
Viet Nam
84.5
100.0
87.9
86.6
96.9
89.1
97.7
100.0
99.0
100.0
Philippines
46.4
85.5
65.4
51.9
92.3
71.3
81.5
93.7
87.5
91.0
Malaysia
89.2
97.3
93.2
93.0
98.5
96.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Singapore
99.0
100.0
100.0
99.0
100.0
100.0
99.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Thailand
82.0
75.2
80.0
87.0
72.6
82.5
99.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
Australia
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
China
92.0
100.0
94.2
95.3
100.0
98.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Korea, Rep. of
92.0
95.0
94.2
95.3
98.7
98.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Japan
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
New Zealand
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
United States
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
. = missing value. 
* The number was taken from a 2014 presentation by Khin Seint Wint.
** The number was taken from ACE, 2013.
Source: World Bank (2018).
Main Report


18
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.4.  Use of Biofuels 
Working Group members from each country were asked to include information on the 
potential use of biofuels in the BAU scenario and the APS. Some, but not all, countries 
in the EAS17 region plan to increase the contribution of biofuels in the transport fuel 
mix to enhance energy security or meet other policy objectives. For China and Japan, 
the assumptions on the use of biofuels were based on IEEJ’s Asia/World Energy Outlook 
2017. Table 1.4 summarises the assumptions regarding the use of biofuels. 
Table 1.4: Assumptions on Biofuels – Summary by Country
Country
Period
Assumptions
Australia
No targets on biofuels
Brunei Darussalam
No targets on biofuels
Cambodia
No targets on biofuels
China
2030
BAU: 20 billion litres; APS: 60 billion litres
India
2017
20% blending of biofuels, both for biodiesel and bioethanol
Indonesia
2025
Bioethanol: 15% blend from 3% to 7% in 2010
Biodiesel: 20% blend from 1% to 5% in 2010
Japan
2005–2030
No biofuel targets submitted
Korea, Rep. of
2012
Replace 1.4% of diesel with biodiesel
2020
Replace 6.7% of diesel with biodiesel
2030
Replace 11.4% of diesel with biodiesel
Lao PDR
2030
Utilise biofuels equivalent to 10% of road transport fuels
Malaysia
2030
Replace 5% of diesel in road transport with biodiesel
Myanmar
2020
Replace 8% of transport diesel with biodiesel
New Zealand
2012–2030
Mandatory biofuels sales obligation of 3.4% by 2012 
Philippines
2025–2035
BAU: The Biofuels Law requires 10% bioethanol/gasoline blend and 2% 
biodiesel/diesel blend 2 years from enactment of the law (roughly 2009)
APS: Displace 20% of diesel and gasoline with biofuels by 2025
Thailand
Biofuels to displace 12.2% of transport energy demand
United States
2011–2022
Renewable Fuels Standard – The US Environmental Protection Agency  
oversees the world’s most ambitious programme to promote ethanol. 
The Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2), created by the 2007 Energy 
Independence and Security Act , requires adding continually increasing 
volumes of renewable sources into the country’s fuel supply – growing 
from nearly 49 billion litres (13 billion gallons) in 2011 up to 136 billion litres 
(36 billion gallons) by 2022.
Viet Nam 
2020
10 % ethanol blend in gasoline for road transport
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Country Energy Saving Potential Report, sub-report of this main report (2018).


19
The largest increases in biofuel consumption in the APS are expected in the US, India, and 
China. In all countries, biofuels are expected to meet only a small portion of the transport 
fuel demand by 2040. 
3.5.  Crude Oil Price
Figure 1.9 depicts the oil price assumptions used in the modelling. In the Reference 
Scenario, the crude oil prices were US286/tonsofoilequivalent(toe)in2016;thesewillrisegraduallytoUS653/toe by 2030 and to US791/toein2040.Theincreaseintheoilpricein2030and2040areduetocombinedfactorssuchasrobustdemandgrowthinnon−OECDcountries,newemerginggeopoliticalrisksandfinancialfactors,oilsupplyconstraintsreflectingrisingdepletionratesforoilfields,etc.Figure1.9:RealOil,NaturalGas,andCoalImportedPriceAssumptions(Realpricesin2016US) 
toe = tons of oil equivalent. 
Note: Crude oil price assumptions start from 2016 onwards.
Source: IEEJ’s oil price assumptions (2017). 
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
$/toe
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
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20
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.6.  Assumptions of Fossil Fuel Production Outlook
3.6.1. 
 Analytical method
The fossil fuel production outlook is generated through the ‘expert’s judgment’ of 
the Delphi process. First, a historical data set of production volume is collected from 
British Petroleum and IEA statistics. The data are used to understand the transition 
of production volume in each country. Second, reference was made to the IEA World 
Energy Outlook 2017 and the IEEJ Asia-World Energy Outlook 2016 to understand the 
future direction of changes in production volume. The estimated fossil fuel outlook also 
utilises supplementary information such as the national plans and targets provided by 
each Working Group member and the country analyses issued by the Energy Information 
Agency (Table 1.5).
3.6.2. 
 Results of the fossil fuel production outlook 
Tables 1.6 to 1.8 present the assumption of fossil fuel production outlook. The results 
indicated that the following:
Table 1.5: Reference Materials and their Estimation
IEA WEO 2017
IEEJ AWEO 2017
Oil
• Employ the New Policies Scenario, amongst the 
Current Policies Scenario, 450 Scenario, Low Oil 
Price Scenario.
• Production increase until 2020 and decline after 
that time.
• Employ the Advanced Technologies Case, 
amongst the Reference Case, Advanced 
Technologies Case, Low Oil Price Case.
• Production is estimated to decrease in 
many Asian countries.
Natural gas
• Employ the New Policies Scenario.
• Production steadily increases towards 2040.
• Employ the Advanced Technologies Case.
• Production is estimated to increase in line 
with IEA WEO 2017.
Coal
• Employ the New Policies Scenario.
• Production increase in major producing 
countries, except China where demand for 
power generation and industry sectors are 
estimated to decrease.
• Employ the Advanced Technologies Case.
• Production is estimated to decrease as 
demand declines.
AWEO = Asia/World Energy Outlook, IEA = International Energy Agency;  
 
 
 
 
 
IEEJ = Institute of Energy Economics, Japan; WEO = World Energy Outlook.
Source: Working Group of the study (2016) and IEA (2017b).


21
• 
For crude oil, many countries will not able to maintain recent production levels except 
in some cases such as Australia, the Philippines, and the US where oil production 
amount surpasses that of 2014. In most countries, oil reserves are estimated to be 
depleted in the future, an estimate based on the sie of a country’s oil reservoir (ERIA, 
2015). Although some countries have untapped oil resources, their size seems too 
small to maintain current production amounts. In addition, insufficient investment in 
exploring new fields will hamper increasing production amounts. Furthermore, some 
fields may be too costly to exploit due to their geographical condition, such as deep 
sea and mountainous areas. However, the oil production of the US is the largest in 
the EAS17 region; it can provide more oil into the market and ease the tension of oil 
shortage if any political tension occurs in some Middle East and African countries.
• 
For natural gas, production is estimated to increase in almost all gas-producing 
countries. Overall, the region is relatively rich in natural gas resources compared to 
oil. Therefore, many countries are promoting the production of indigenous natural 
gas. Australia, China, and the US, which are richly endowed with conventional and 
unconventional gas resources, are expected to increase production, with Australia 
and the US aiming to export and China, for domestic supply. Some countries, such 
as Viet Nam, put natural gas at the centre of their energy mix, so they are boosting 
production activities.
• 
Coal (thermal + coking) production is estimated to decrease in China, the major coal-
producing country, whereas India, the second-largest coal consumer, will increase 
production. Indonesia is also expected to increase production by 2040. The energy 
policies are different amongst China, the US, India, and Indonesia, the largest coal 
producers and consumers in the region. China and the US have changed their policies 
to pursue cleaner energy use; so they intend to curb coal consumption. Indonesia and 
India, however, intend to ensure energy supply at an affordable price, and thus plan to 
increase domestically available cheap energy sources such as coal. Australia, a major 
coal exporter, is estimated to decrease production as global coal demand declines 
due to the gradual shift to a low-carbon society. Japan and the Republic of Korea as 
consumers are likely to use coal for energy security although they intend to diversify 
the energy mix, gradually reducing coal consumption in the future.
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22
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 1.6: Production Outlook of Oil
Oil Production (1,000b/d)
2014
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Australia
448 
600 
650 
650 
600 
600 
Brunei
138 
140 
130 
130 
120 
120 
China
4,341 
4,300 
4,250 
4,200 
4,100 
4,000 
India
895 
740 
680 
680 
700 
720 
Indonesia
852 
830 
820 
800 
780 
770 
Japan 
17 
15 
15 
15 
15 
15 
Korea, Rep. of 
20 
15 
15 
15 
15 
15 
Malaysia
666 
650 
620 
600 
600 
600 
Myanmar 
20 
20 
20 
20 
20 
20 
Philippines 
24 
39 
35 
30 
30 
30 
New Zealand
47 
27 
10 
3 
1 
1 
Thailand
453 
480 
470 
460 
450 
440 
United States 
8,900* 
10,700 
11,380 
11,700 
11,850 
11,900 
Viet Nam
365 
360 
350 
330 
320 
320 
Total EAS
17,186
18,916 
19,445 
19,633 
19,601 
19,551 
*The number is in year 2016, b/d = barrel/day. 
Source: IEA (2017b).
Table 1.7: Production Outlook of Gas
Gas Production (bcm)
2014
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Australia
58.8 
133.0 
144.5 
165.5 
175.5 
174.0 
Brunei
11.9 
12.5 
12.5 
12.5 
12.5 
12.5 
China
134.5 
172.0 
212.0 
255.0 
299.0 
342.0 
India
31.7 
38.0 
45.0 
55.0 
69.0 
89.0 
Indonesia
73.4 
80.0 
82.0 
83.0 
84.0 
85.0 
Japan 
3.9 
3.5 
3.0 
3.0 
3.0 
2.5 
Korea, Rep. of 
0.5 
0.5 
0.5 
0.5 
0.5 
0.5 
Malaysia
66.4 
68.0 
70.0 
67.0 
65.0 
65.0 
Myanmar 
16.8 
17.5 
18.5 
18.5 
18.5 
18.5 
Philippines 
3.4 
3.0 
4.0 
7.0 
7.0 
8.0 
New Zealand
5.4 
4.0 
3.0 
2.0 
1.0 
1.0 
Thailand
42.1 
42.0 
41.0 
40.0 
40.0 
40.0 
United States 
27,000*
32,700
35,800
37,900
38,800
40,200
Viet Nam
11.1 
11.0 
15.0 
18.0 
22.0 
25.0 
Total EAS
27,460
33,285
36,451
38,627
39,597
41,063
*The number is in year 2016, bcm = billion cubic metre. 
Source: IEA (2017b).


23
Table 1.8: Production Outlook of Coal
Coal Production (Mton)
2014
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Australia
431 
437 
421 
412 
411 
405 
China
3,532 
3,548 
3,383 
3,286 
3,132 
2,944 
India
604 
627 
650 
624 
652 
683 
Indonesia
444 
471 
476 
478 
478 
480 
Korea, Rep. of 
2.09 
1.76 
1.20 
0.63 
0.07 
0 
Lao PDR
0.5 
0.7 
0.7 
0.7 
0.7 
0.7 
Malaysia
3.0 
3.2 
3.6 
4.0 
4.0 
4.0 
Myanmar 
0.8 
0.6 
0.8 
0.9 
1.0 
1.0 
Philippines 
7.3 
7.1 
7.9 
9 
9 
9 
New Zealand
4.9 
4.1 
4.0 
3.9 
3.8 
3.7 
Thailand
18 
19 
18 
14 
10 
7 
Viet Nam
42 
42 
41 
42 
49 
53 
United States 
741* 
731 
738 
750 
736 
746 
Total EAS
5,831 
5,892 
5,745 
5,625 
5,488 
5,337 
*The number is in year 2016, Mton = million tons.
Source: IEA (2017b).
3.7.  Energy-Saving Goals
Collected from each Working Group member from the EAS17 countries was information 
about the potential energy savings achievable under specific policy initiatives to increase 
energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption. Each member specified which policies 
exist and should be applied to the BAU scenario, and which are proposed and should 
be applied only to the APS. Quantitative energy savings were estimated based on the 
countries’ own assumptions and modelling results. Table 1.9 summarises energy-saving 
goals, action plans, and policies collected from each EAS Working Group member in 2017.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 1.9: Summary of Energy Saving Goals, Action Plans, and Policies Collected 
from Each EAS17 Working Group Member 
Indicator
Goals
Australia
Carbon pollution
Australia’s emissions reduction target of 26%–28% below 2005 
level by 2030
Brunei Darussalam
Energy intensity
45% improvement by 2035 from 2005 level
Cambodia 
Carbon pollution
Reduce 3,100 Gg  CO2 equivalent (approximately 1.8 Mt CO2e.) 
compared to baseline emission 11,600 Gg Co2e by 2030
China
Energy intensity
By 2020, energy consumption per unit of GDP will drop by 15% 
from 2016
India
Not submitted
Indonesia
Energy intensity
Reduce by 1% per year until 2025
Japan
Energy intensity
30% improvement in energy intensity in 2030 from 2003 level
Korea, Rep. of
Energy intensity
46.7% reduction by 2030 from 2006 level
Lao PDR
Final energy consumption • 10% reduction from BAU by 2030
• 5% energy intensity reduction by 2030, from 2015.
Malaysia
Final energy consumption 8.6% reduction from BAU by 2020
Myanmar
TPES
• 5% reduction from BAU by 2020
• 10% reduction from BAU by 2030
(Final energy consumption: 5% by 2020 and 8% by 2030).
New Zealand
Energy intensity
1.3% per year improvement from 2011 to 2016
Philippines
Final energy consumption 10% savings from BAU by 2030
Singapore
Energy intensity
• 20% reduction by 2020 from 2005 level
• 35% reduction by 2030 from 2005 level
Thailand
Energy intensity
• 15% reduction by 2020 from 2005 level
• 25% reduction by 2030 from 2005 level
Viet Nam 
Final energy consumption • 3%–5% savings from BAU until 2015
• 5%–8% savings from BAU after 2015
United States
This Vision for the 
National Action Plan 
for Energy Efficiency 
targets  achieving all 
cost-effective energy 
efficiency by 2025
• The action plan presents 10 implementation goals for states, 
utilities, and other stakeholders to consider achieving this goal; 
describes what 2025 might look like if the goal is achieved; and 
provides a means for measuring progress. It is a framework for 
implementing the five policy recommendations of the Action 
Plan, announced in July 2006, which can be modified and 
improved over time.
BAU = Business-As-Usual, EAS = East Asia Summit, Gg CO2 = greenhouse gas emissions, TPES = total primary energy supply. 
Source: EAS Energy Outlook and Saving Potential Working Group Members (2017).
3.8.  Economic Growth and Climate Change Mitigation
Economic growth in the EAS countries is needed to provide for the region’s growing 
population and improving living standards. Economic growth is assumed to exceed 
population growth in 2015–2040. This relatively strong economic growth and rising per 
capita incomes in the EAS countries could mean significant reductions in poverty and 
significant increases in living standards for hundreds of millions of people. 
With economic growth will come increasing access to, and demand for, electricity and 
rising levels of vehicle ownership. The continued reliance on fossil fuels to meet the 
increases in energy demand may be associated with increased GHG emissions and climate 


25
change challenges unless low-emission technologies are used. Even if fossil fuel resources 
are enough, most of the fuel will likely be imported from other regions, and no assurance 
can be given that they will be secure or affordable. 
Fossil fuel consumption using today’s technologies will lead to considerable increases in 
greenhouse gas emissions, potentially creating new longer-term threats to the region’s 
living standards and economic vitality. Growing adverse health impacts throughout the 
region are also likely because of particulate emissions.
Given this, considerable improvements in energy efficiency and greater uptake of cleaner 
energy technologies and renewable energy are required to address a range of energy, 
environmental, and economic challenges. Yet, efforts to limit energy consumption and 
GHGs will be very challenging given such strong growth. However, as will be discussed 
in Section 4.3, sharp reductions in GHGs are being called for by scientists. This huge 
‘headwind’ working against EEC and emission reductions poses a challenge to the EAS 
region that needs to be addressed.
4. 
   Energy Outlook for the EAS Region
4.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario
4.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Between 2015 and 2040, total final energy consumption3 in the EAS17 countries is 
projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.6%, reflecting the assumed 3.5% annual 
GDP growth and 0.5% population growth. Final energy consumption is projected to 
increase from 5,020 Mtoe in 2015 to 7,410 Mtoe in 2040. By sector, transport energy 
demand is projected to grow moderately about 1.7% per year, and its energy consumption 
share is projected to be 26.1% by 2040. For the industry sector, its annual growth rate in 
2015–2040 is just about 1.6% per year, but its energy consumption share is projected to 
be the largest at about 34.1% by 2040. The demand of the commercial and residential 
(‘others’) sector will grow at a lower rate of 1.3% per year, slower than that of the industry 
sector. However, its energy consumption share is projected to be 29.4%, the second-
largest share after the industry sector. Figure 1.10 shows final energy consumption by 
sector under the BAU scenario in EAS17 from 1990 to 2040. Figure 1.11 shows details of 
sectoral shares in final energy consumption.
3 
Refers to energy in the form in which it is consumed, i.e. including electricity, but not including the fuels and/or 
energy sources used to generate electricity.
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26
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.10: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040) 
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Figure 1.11: Final Energy Consumption Share by Sector (1990–2040)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy


27
Figures 1.12 and 1.13 show final energy consumption and shares by fuel type in the EAS17 
under the BAU scenario from 1990 to 2040. By energy source, electricity and natural 
gas demand in the BAU scenario are projected to show the fastest growth, increasing 
by 2.3% and 2.1% per year, respectively, but their share will just be 25.1% for electricity 
and 13.2% for natural gas. Although oil will retain the largest share at 37.5% of total final 
energy consumption, it is projected to grow at a lower rate of 1.5% per year in 2015–2040, 
reaching 2,779 Mtoe in 2040. Generally, oil share slightly dropped from 37.7% in 2015 to 
37.5% in 2040. Coal demand will grow at a slower rate of 1.2% per year on average from 
2015 to 2040, reaching 1,218 Mtoe in 2040. The share of other fuels such as biomass 
will decline from 9.9% in 2015 to 6.2% in 2040. This slow growth is due to the gradual shift 
from non-commercial biomass to conventional fuels like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) 
and electricity in the residential sector.
Figure 1.12: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040) 
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
8,000.0
7,000.0
6,000.0
5,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
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28
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.13: Final Energy Consumption Share by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
Source: Authors’ calculation.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
4.1.2. 
 Primary energy supply
Figure 1.14 shows primary energy supply in EAS17 from 1990 to 2040. Primary energy 
supply4  in the region is projected to grow at a slightly slower pace, of 1.5% per year, as final 
energy consumption grows at 1.6% per year. EAS17 primary energy supply is projected to 
increase from 7,488 Mtoe in 2015 to 10,943 Mtoe in 2040. Coal will still comprise the 
largest share of primary energy supply, but its growth is expected to be slower, increasing 
at 1.3% per year. Consequently, the share of coal in total primary energy supply (TPES) is 
forecast to decline from 41.4% in 2015 to 38.9% in 2040. 
4 
Refers to energy in its raw form, before any transformations, most significantly, the generation of electricity. 


29
Amongst fossil sources of energy, natural gas is projected to see moderate growth in 2015–
2040, increasing at an annual average rate of 2.2% Its share in the total will consequently 
increase from 15.4% (equivalent to 1,155 Mtoe) in 2015 to 18% (equivalent to 1,972 
Mtoe) in 2040. Nuclear energy is projected to increase at a similar rate of natural gas rate 
of 2.2% per year on average. Its share will grow from 4.2% in 2015 to 5% in 2040. This is 
due to the assumed resumption of nuclear power generation in Japan and the expansion 
of nuclear power generation capacity in China and India. Geothermal is projected to grow 
the fastest at 3.1% per year during 2015–2040. However, its share is projected to be 
relatively small, about 0.9% by 2040, increasing from 0.6% in 2015.
Amongst the energy sources, others – which is made up of solar, wind, and solid and liquid 
biofuels – will see the slowest growth rate of 1.3% Consequently, the share of these other 
sources of energy will decrease from 8.4% in 2015 to 8.1% in 2040. The growth of hydro 
will also be low at 1.3% per year and its share will remain low, at around 1.9% by 2040. 
Figure 1.15 shows the shares of each energy source in the total primary energy mix in 
1990–2040.
Figure 1.14: Primary Energy Supply in EAS17 (1990–2040)
EAS = East Asia Summit , Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
12,000.0
10,000.0
8,000.0
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
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30
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.15: Share of Primary Energy Mix by Source (1990–2040)
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
Source: Authors’ calculation.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
4.1.3. 
  Power generation in EAS17
Figure 1.16 shows the power generation output in the EAS region. Total power generation 
is projected to grow at 2.3% per year on average, from 2015 (equivalent to 14,290 
terawatt-hours [TWh]) to 2040 (equivalent to 25,030 TWh). However, the growth rate 
in 1990–2015 was 3.9%, nearly twice as high as the projected growth rate in 2015–2040.


31
Figure 1.17 shows the share of each energy source in electricity generation from 1990 to 
2040. The share of coal-fired generation is projected to continue to be the largest and will 
be about 48% in 2040, a drop from the 53.8% share in 2015. The share of natural gas is 
projected to increase from 17.8% in 2015 to 19.4% in 2040. Nuclear share (8.5% in 2015) 
is forecast to decrease to 8.3% in 2040. The share of geothermal (0.4% in 2015) and other 
(wind, solar, biomass, etc.) sources at 5.7% will also increase to 0.5% and 13.7% in 2040, 
respectively. The share of oil and hydro are projected to decrease, from 1.6% to 0.4% and 
from 12.3% to 9.7% respectively, over the same period.
Figure 1.16: Power Generation in EAS17 (1990–2040)
EAS = East Asia Summit, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
30,000.0
25,000.0
20,000.0
15,000.0
10,000.0
5,000.0
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
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32
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.17: Share of Power Generation Mix in EAS17 (1990–2040)
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
EAS = East Asia Summit.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Figure 1.18 shows the thermal efficiency of coal-, oil-, and natural gas–fired power 
plants from 1990 to 2040. Thermal efficiency is projected to grow in EAS17 from 2015 
to 2040 due to improvement in electricity generation technologies like combined-cycle 
gas turbines and advanced coal power plant technologies. The efficiency of coal thermal 
power plants, which is a mix of old and new power plants, will increase slightly, from 37.5% 
in 2015 to 40.1% in 2040. The efficiency of natural gas power plants will also increase, 
from 47.9% in 2015 to 51.3% in 2040. Oil power plants, which will not be used very much 
in the future, will deteriorate in efficiency, slightly increasing from 36.3% in 2015 to 37.7% 
in 2040.


33
4.1.4. 
 Primary energy intensity and per capita energy demand
Figure 1.19 shows the energy intensity and energy per capita from 1990 to 2040. For the 
BAU scenario, energy intensity in the EAS is projected to decline by 38%, from 192 toe/
million US$ (constant 2010) in 2015 to 120 toe/million US$ in 2040. The improvement 
in energy intensity is also reflected in the improvement in CO2 intensity at a similar pace. 
In contrast to energy intensity, energy demand per capita is projected to increase by 28.7%, 
from 1.95 toe per person in 2015 to 2.51 toe per person in 2040. This could be attributed 
to the projected continuing economic growth in the region, which will bring about a more 
energy-intensive lifestyle as people are able to purchase vehicles, household appliances, 
and other energy-consuming devices due to increases in disposable income. As energy 
demand per capita increases, CO2 per capita is projected to increase at a similar rate.
Figure 1.18: Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040) 
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
55
50
45
30
35
30
25
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
%
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
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34
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
EAS = East Asia Summit, CO2 = carbon dioxide.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita
Figure 1.19: Energy Indicators in EAS17 
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 = 100
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
4.2.  Comparison of BAU and APS 
4.2.1. 
 Total final energy consumption, BAU vs APS 
In the APS, final energy consumption is projected to rise from 5,020 Mtoe in 2015 to 
6,615 Mtoe. Comparing the BAU scenario and the APS, final energy consumption is 
projected to be 795 Mtoe or 10.8% lower than in the BAU scenario in 2040. This is due 
to the various energy efficiency plans and programmes, presented in Section 3, on both 
the supply and demand sides that are to be implemented by EAS17 countries. Figure 1.20 
shows the evolution of final energy consumption in 1990–2040 in both the BAU scenario 
and APS.


35
4.2.2. 
 Final energy consumption by sector – BAU vs APS 
Figure 1.21 shows the composition of final energy consumption by sector in both the BAU 
scenario and the APS. Final energy consumption in most sectors is significantly reduced 
in the APS compared with the BAU scenario. In percentage terms, the reduction is largest 
in the transportation sector (14.6%), followed by the industry sector (11.4%), the ‘others’ 
sector (10.2%); non-energy demand will be the same as the BAU scenario.
Figure 1.20: Total Final Energy Consumption, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil eqivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990
10.8%
2015
2040
Mtoe
BAU
APS
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36
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.21: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU vs APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario , BAU = Business-As-Usual .
Source: Authors’ calculation.
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
–11.4%
–14.6%
–10.2%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
4.2.3. 
 Primary energy supply by sources – BAU vs APS 
Figure 1.22 shows primary energy supply by fuel source. In the APS, growth in primary 
energy supply for fossil fuels is lower compared with the BAU scenario. The growth rate 
in primary energy supply of the APS is projected to be 1% per year on average from 2015 
to 2040. This rate is lower than the BAU scenario in which the growth rate is projected to 
be 1.5%. In absolute terms, the largest reduction will be in coal demand, by 1,154 Mtoe or 
27.1% from the BAU scenario’s 4,254 Mtoe to 3,100 Mtoe in the APS. The savings potential 
for other fuels are projected to be 408 Mtoe for oil (equivalent to a 13.7% reduction from 
the BAU scenario), and 355 Mtoe for gas (equivalent to a 17.9% reduction from the BAU 
scenario). Due to increased renewable energy in the primary supply, renewable energy 
supply including biomass is projected to increase by 30.1% from the BAU scenario to the 
APS for the aggressive policy scenario of including more renewables into the supply mix.


37
4.2.4. 
 Total primary energy supply – BAU vs APS
Figure 1.23 shows the TPES in both the BAU scenario and the APS. The total savings 
potential in the TPES is expected to be 1,431 Mtoe, a consumption reduction from 10,943 
Mtoe in the BAU scenario to 9,512 Mtoe in the APS. This savings potential represents a 
13.1% reduction from the BAU scenario to the APS. 
The energy savings potential is brought about by improvements both in the transformation 
sector, particularly power generation, and the final energy consumption sector where 
efficiencies of household appliances and more efficient building designs are expected. 
The ‘others’ sector has an expected increase of renewable energy in the energy supply, 
which is projected to be a 31.1% increase from the BAU scenario to the APS.
Figure 1.22: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent..
Source: Authors’ calculation.
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-13.7%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
-27.1%
-17.9%
30.1%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.23: Total Primary Energy Supply – BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
1431.17 Mtoe, –13.1%
4.3.  CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption
4.3.1. 
 CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions from energy consumption in the BAU scenario are projected to increase 
from 5,660 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 8,189 Mt-C in 2040, implying an 
average annual growth rate of 1.5% (Figure 1.24). This is the same growth rate of TPES of 
1.5% per year. In the APS, CO2 emissions are projected to be 6,207 Mt-C in 2040, 24.2% 
lower than the BAU scenario.
At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the 
first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. The agreement sets out a global 
action plan to put the world on track to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global 
warming to well below 2°C. The Paris Agreement could be a bridge between today’s 
policies and climate-neutrality before the end of the century. 
Although the emission reductions under the APS are significant, CO2 emissions from 
energy demand in the APS in 2040 will still be above 2015 levels and more than two times 
higher than 1990 levels. Scientific evidence suggests that these reductions will not be 
adequate to prevent severe climate change impacts. Analysis by the Intergovernmental 
Panel on Climate Change suggests that to keep the increase in global mean temperature 


39
to not more than 2°C compared with pre-industrial levels, global CO2 emissions need to 
peak between 2000 and 2015.
In the adopted version of the Paris Agreement, the parties will also ‘pursue efforts’ to 
limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C, which will require zero emissions between 2030 
and 2050, according to scientists. However, this study shows that even in the APS, the 
emissions will be about 6,207 Mt-C. It is supposed to be at zero emissions for the efforts 
to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C to be successful.
4.4.  NDC/INDC Scenario
This working group also assessed reducing the effect of CO2 emissions brought by NDC/
INDC targets that countries submit to the United Nations Framework Convention on 
Climate Change following the Paris Agreement (Table 1.10). The results clearly show that 
INDC/NDC targets of the following ASEAN countries and Australia are more ambitious 
than the EAS targets.
Figure 1.24 Total CO2 Emissions – BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, CO2 = carbon dioxide,  Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
9,000 
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
1981.93 Mt-C, -24.2%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 1.10: Comparison of CO2 Emissions amongst the Scenarios in 2040, Mt-C  
Country
BAU
APS
INDC/NDC
Malaysia
116
90
78
Philippines
271
191
87
Thailand
410
252
220
Australia
100
80
50
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,  
 
 
NDC = Nationally Determined Contributions.
Source: Authors.
Cambodia, the Lao PDR, Myanmar, Singapore, and Viet Nam were not assessed due to 
their technical problems. Other countries such as Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, and 
China could already achieve their INDC/NDC targets with their APS targets.
To achieve the INDC/NDC targets, additional efforts need to be made to reduce emissions 
in the APS to reach INDC/NDC in some countries. For example, CO2 emissions reduction 
target rate from APS to INDC/NDC are 13% for Malaysia, 54% for the Philippines, 13% for 
Thailand, and 38% for Australia. The INDC/NDC targets of the Philippines and Australia 
seem to be too ambitious; these countries should review their INDC/NDC targets from 
the scientific viewpoint.
4.5.  Necessary Investment Cost
4.5.1  Power infrastructure
Based on the energy outlook results for the BAU scenario and the APS, the Working Group 
estimated the necessary investment in the power sector, especially for power generation 
facilities, comprising coal, gas, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar PV, wind, and biomass 
power generation plants. The Working Group drew from several sources of information to 
obtain the current capital cost of each power plant, but it did not forecast future capital cost 
due to its uncertainty. For all EAS17 countries taken together, the amount of investment 
needs to meet electricity demand would be US$3.5 trillion for the BAU scenario and 
US$4 trillion for the APS. This investment cost considers the reduction of upfront cost of 
each technology due to a fast drop of unit cost of each technology, especially renewables. 
Figures 1.25 and 1.26 show the investment shares by power generation type for the BAU 
scenario and the APS in the region. The Increment of electricity demand from 2015 
to 2040 of the BAU scenario will be 13,361 TWh. On the other hand, its APS will be 


41
12,641 TWh. But the APS will shift to renewables and nuclear energy. In the case of the 
high share of renewables in the power generation mix, the total expected power capacity 
will be 3,119 GW in the APS, which is 2,875 GW higher than the BAU scenario due to 
the lower operation (or lower efficiency) rate of renewable energy. Consequently, the 
APS will be higher than the BAU scenario in terms of necessary investment for power 
generation, and the share of power generation sources will be different between the BAU 
scenario and the APS.
Figure 1.25: Investment Share by Power Source (EAS17-BAU)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, EAS = East Asia Summit, PV = photovoltaic. 
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Wind
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar PV
31%
31%
8%
14%
5%
2%
9%
Figure 1.26: Investment Share by Power Sources (EAS17-APS)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, EAS = East Asia Summit, PV = photovoltaic.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
3%
4%
Wind
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar PV
15%
23%
9%
3%
43%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.27 shows the investment needs of the 10 ASEAN Member States. ASEAN would 
account for about US$432 billion for the BAU scenario, and about US$440 billion in the 
APS. The investment shares by power generation source are different between the BAU 
scenario and the APS. Investment in coal and gas power are the dominant shares in the 
ASEAN–BAU case, while investment in the APS is more towards clean energy such as 
hydro, geothermal, wind, solar PV, and possibly nuclear as well (Figure 1.28). In other 
words, ASEAN will seek for a more balanced energy mix for power generation to increase 
energy security and mitigate CO2 emissions.
Figure 1.27: Investment Share by Power Source (ASEAN–BAU)
ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, BAU = Business-As-Usual, PV = photovoltaic. 
Source: Authors’ calculation.
1%
Wind
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar PV
4%
7%
66%
14%
8%
Figure 1.28: Investment Share by Power Source (ASEAN–APS)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, PV = photovoltaic.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
8%
Wind
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar PV
22%
33%
9%
7%
12%
9%


43
4.5.2  Other energy infrastructure
There are many necessary investments in energy infrastructure in the future, but here 
we focus on necessary investment cost for refineries and liquefied natural gas (LNG)–
receiving terminals. Natural gas will have a higher growth rate until 2040 but its supply 
to EAS17 will shift from domestic production to countries outside EAS17. In this regard, 
LNG-receiving terminals will also be essential. The investment for refineries and LNG-
receiving terminals in EAS17 will be estimated at US$367 billion and US132billion,respectively,intheBAUscenario.TheinvestmentsintheAPSarereducedtoUS60 
billion for refineries, and US$75 billion for LNG-receiving terminals due to promotion 
of energy efficiency. However, these investment costs will be much lower than power 
generation. The share of investment cost of refineries and LNG-receiving terminals to 
power generation facilities will be 13% of the BAU scenario and 3% of the APS, respectively. 
These results seem to indicate energy transition from fossil fuel to more advanced energy 
technologies such as renewable energy (Figure 1.29). 
Figure 1.29: Energy Infrastructure Investment (EAS17, BAU–APS)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, EAS = East Asia Summit, LNG = liquefied natural gas.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Power Generation
LNG (receiving terminal)
Refinery
4,500 
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Investment Cost ($US Billion)
2040 BAU
2040 APS
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The investments for refineries and LNG-receiving terminals in ASEAN are estimated at 
US226billionandUS28 billion, respectively, in the BAU scenario. The investments 
in ASEAN in the APS are reduced to US149billionforrefineriesandUS16 billion for 
LNG-receiving terminals. The share of investment cost of refineries and LNG-receiving 
terminals to power generation facilities will be 59% of the BAU scenario and 17% of the 
APS. ASEAN will still need fossil fuel for its economic and social activities. The total 
investment cost for power generation, refineries, and LNG-receiving terminals of the 
APS will be lower than the BAU scenario. This indicates that the EEC in the final energy 
consumption sector and natural gas power plants will be crucial (Figure 1.30).
Figure 1.30: Energy Infrastructure Investment (ASEAN, BAU-APS)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, BAU = Business-As-Usual, LNG = liquefied natural gas.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Power Generation
LNG (receiving terminal)
Refinery
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Investment Cost ($US Billion)
2040 BAU
2040 APS


45
5.  Conclusions and Recommendations 
At the third Working Group meeting, the members discussed the key findings and 
implications of the analysis based on the two energy outlook scenarios – the BAU scenario 
and the APS.
5.1.  Key Findings
Based on projected changes in socio-economic factors, energy consumption, and CO2 
emissions in the BAU scenario and the APS, the Working Group members identified 
several key findings:
1) Sustained population and economic growth in the EAS region will lead to significant 
increases in energy demand. Total final energy consumption in 2040 will increase by 
almost 50%, reflecting actual annual growth rate of 1.6% per year between 2015 and 
2040. By sector, transport energy demand is projected to grow moderately at about 
1.7% per year, and its energy consumption share is projected to be 26.1% by 2040. 
The annual growth rate of the industry sector in 2015–2040 is just about 1.6% per 
year, but its energy consumption share is projected to be the largest, about 34.1% 
by 2040. Demand of the commercial and residential (‘others’) sectors will grow at a 
lower rate of 1.3% per year, slower than that of the industry and the transport sectors. 
However, its energy consumption share is projected to be 29.4%, the second-largest 
share after the industry sector. 
2) The total EAS17 power generation is projected to grow at 2.3% per year on average, 
from 2015 (equivalent to 14,290 TWh) to 2040 (equivalent to 25,030 TWh), 
reflecting an increase of 1.8 times during the period. The share of coal-fired generation 
is projected to continue to be the largest and will be about 48% in 2040, a drop from 
the 53.8% share in 2015. The share of natural gas is projected to increase from 17.8% 
in 2015 to 19.4% in 2040. The nuclear share (8.5% in 2015) is forecast to decrease 
to 8.3% in 2040. Geothermal (0.4% in 2015) and other (wind, solar, biomass, etc.) 
sources at 5.7% share will also increase to 0.5% and 13.7% in 2040, respectively. The 
shares of oil and hydro are projected to decrease, from 1.6% to 0.4%, and from 12.3% 
to 9.7%, respectively, over the same period.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3) The total EAS17 primary energy supply is projected to increase from 7,488 Mtoe in 
2015 to 10,943 Mtoe in 2040. Coal will still comprise the largest share of primary 
energy supply, but its growth is expected to be slower, increasing at 1.3% per year. 
Consequently, the share of coal in the TPES is forecast to decline from 41.4% in 2015 
to 38.9% in 2040. Amongst fossil sources of energy, natural gas is projected to see a 
moderate annual average growth rate of 2.2%. Its share in the total will consequently 
increase from 15.4% (equivalent to 1,155 Mtoe) in 2015 to 18% (equivalent to 1,972 
Mtoe) in 2040. Nuclear energy is projected to increase at a similar rate as natural 
gas at 2.2% per year on average; its share will grow from 4.2% in 2015 to 5% in 2040. 
This is due to the assumed resumption of nuclear power generation in Japan, and 
the expansion of nuclear power generation capacity in China and India. Geothermal 
is projected to grow fastest at 3.1% per year in 2015–2040. However, its share is 
projected to be relatively small, about 0.9% by 2040, increasing from 0.6% in 2015.
4) The continuing reliance on fossil fuels to meet increasing energy demand will also 
be associated with significant increases in CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions from 
energy consumption in the BAU scenario are projected to increase from 5,660 Mt-C 
in 2015 to 8,189 Mt-C in 2040, implying an average annual growth rate of 1.5%. In 
the APS, CO2 emissions are projected to be 6,207 Mt-C in 2040, 24.2% lower than in 
the BAU scenario. Although the emissions reductions under the APS are significant, 
CO2 emissions from energy demand in the APS in 2040 will still be above 2015 levels 
and more than two times higher than 1990 levels. 
5) However, the EEC in EAS17 provides strong hope for the region to reduce energy 
demand and CO2 emissions. The results of this analysis indicate that, by 2040, the 
implementation of currently proposed energy efficiency goals, action plans, and 
policies across the region could lead to the following reductions:
o 
13.1% in primary energy supply,
o 
38% in energy intensity, and
o 
24.2% in energy-derived CO2 emissions.
6) According to assessment results of INDC/NDC targets based on comparison of CO2 
emissions in the BAU scenario, APS, and INDC/NDC scenarios, the APS of many 
EAS17 countries clearly shows lower CO2 emissions than their INDC/NDC targets. 
But several countries show much lower CO2 emissions compared to the APS. It is 
suggested that those countries review them from a scientific viewpoint. 


47
7) Based on the key findings, the necessary investment cost of combined power 
generation, refineries, and LNG-receiving terminals in EAS17 is estimated to 
be US$4.0 trillion in the BAU scenario by 2040, and US4.2trillionintheAPS.InvestmentsinrefineriesandLNG−receivingterminalsinEAS17areestimatedtocostUS67 billion and US131billion,respectively,intheBAUscenario.InvestmentsintheAPSarereducedtoUS60 billion for refineries and US75billionforLNG−receivingterminals.IntheAPS,althoughelectricitydemandislowerduetotheimplementationofefficiencymeasures,theestimatedinvestmentcostofpowergenerationwillbelarger(US4.0 trillion in the APS from US$3.5 trillion in the BAU 
scenario) mainly because of the increased share of renewables imposed under the 
APS in addition to the EEC measures. The largest share of total investment will be 
for additional capacity of NRE plants, such as hydro, geothermal, solar PV, wind, and 
biomass.
5.2.  Policy Implications
Based on the above key findings, the Working Group members identified several policy 
implications, aggregated into five major categories. The identified policy implications are 
based on a shared desire to enhance action plans in specific sectors, prepare appropriate 
energy efficiency policies, shift from fossil energy to non-fossil energy, rationalise 
energy pricing mechanisms, and a need for accurate energy consumption statistics. 
The implications identified by the Working Group are listed below. It should be noted 
that appropriate policies will differ between countries based on differences in country 
circumstances, policy objectives, and market structures, and that not all members 
necessarily agreed to all recommendations.
 
1) Energy efficiency action plans in final consumption sectors. The industry sector 
will be a major source of energy savings because it will still be the largest energy-
consuming sector by 2040, followed by transport especially road and residential/
commercial sectors. Several EEC action plans will be implemented, which include 
building design and replacement of existing facilities and equipment with more 
efficient ones. Those policies are listed by area/sector: 
• 
The building sector would need both passive and active design policies such as
o 
setting up and enforcing building codes and rewards for green building,
o 
supporting energy service companies regulated by governments, and
o 
exploring and establishing a good and practical green building business model 
to meet the context and situation.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
• 
The road transport sector will need to consider measures to reduce energy 
consumption per unit of transport activities such as
o 
improving fuel economy of internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles;
o 
shifting from personal to mass transportation mode;
o 
shifting to more low-emission fuels, such as biofuels and compressed natural 
gas vehicles;
o 
shifting to next-generation vehicle technologies, such as electric vehicles, 
plug-in hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles;
• 
Other sectors will need to consider measures to improve energy efficiency such 
as
o 
applying standards and labelling systems;
o 
using demand management systems such as household energy management 
systems and factory energy management systems;
o 
growing energy managers and energy service companies;
o 
improving thermal efficiency in the power generation sector by constructing 
or replacing existing facilities with new and more efficient generation 
technologies.
 
2) Renewable energy policies. Low-carbon fuels need to be increased. This could be 
attained by increasing the share of NRE and nuclear energy in the energy mix of each 
country. Several policies and actions should be considered:
• 
Renewable technologies are not as competitive as thermal power generation 
technologies using fossil fuel in terms of their costs. Supportive renewable 
energy policies such as feed-in tariffs (FiT), renewable portfolio standards, and 
net metering are suggested. In addition, international financing schemes, which 
include clean development mechanisms and joint credit mechanisms, are also 
penetrating renewable energy. The key to incentivise private investment in 
renewable energy is to lower the risks related to renewable energy projects and 
improve profitability prospects.
• 
The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources poses significant challenges 
in integrating renewable-energy generation with existing electricity grids. Thus, 
electricity storage technologies, combined with solar and wind power, will be very 
important, but the combination cost is still high.
3) Technology development policies. Environmental technologies will need to be 
considered to curb the increasing CO2 emissions:
• 
The development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology will be very 
important in controlling the release of GHGs into the atmosphere. Continued 
research and development will be important to ensure the future economic 
viability of deploying CCS technology. 


49
• 
Hydrogen could be extracted from fossil fuels, such as oil and natural gas, and 
through electrolysis using renewable energy. But its cost is still higher than existing 
fuels. Hydrogen fuel development is very promising and could be commercialised 
in the future. Continued research and development in fuel cells and hydrogen 
power generation will be important for future clean fuel use. 
• 
Technological cooperation and technology diffusion need to be accelerated in 
the ASEAN region.
4) Energy supply security policies. The region will largely depend on imported oil and 
gas. Thus, measures to secure the supply of energy will be very important for the 
region. Several measures are identified:
• 
Promote regional energy connectivity such as the trans-ASEAN gas pipeline and 
the ASEAN Power Grid.
• 
Diversify sources of import.
• 
Strengthen energy infrastructure, including the construction of LNG-receiving 
terminals and re-gasification plants.
• 
Increase domestic energy such as renewable energy share.
• 
ASEAN may need to look into the strategic reserve or stockpiling requirement on 
both public and private bases in the near future.
 
5.3.  Recommendations
 
Based on this study, energy consumption in the EAS region will increase remarkably due 
to stable economic and population growth. It will continue to depend largely on fossil fuel 
energy, such as coal, oil, and gas, until 2040 (the BAU scenario) even though a higher 
crude oil assumption (about US$120 per barrel in 2040 at 2016 constant price) reflects 
the current market situation. But if EAS17 countries dedicate themselves to implementing 
their EEC policies and increase low-carbon energy technologies, such as nuclear power 
generation and solar PV/wind (APS), the region could achieve remarkable energy savings 
in the APS, especially through fossil fuel savings, and significantly reduce CO2 emissions. 
The APS of many EAS17 countries is appropriate because their expected CO2  emissions 
reduction is the same or larger than the countries’ INDC/NDC targets. Therefore, EAS17 
countries need to apply the plan-do-check-act cycle approach in promoting their EEC 
and renewable energy policies (energy-saving targets and action plans) according to their 
respective timetables.
Natural gas will grow the highest up to 2040 amongst fossil fuels and will be an important 
fuel as transition to a new energy system in the future occurs because of lower price than 
crude oil, various import sources, and lower carbon emissions compared to oil and coal. To 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
realise this increase, the establishment of a transparent LNG market in Asia, the removal 
of destination clause, and consumers’ participation in LNG development, and others are 
recommended.
 
This energy outlook study also shows that a lot of energy savings, especially on oil and 
electricity consumption by final users, will come from energy efficiency activities. 
So, the following EEC policies (specified by energy-saving targets and action plans) of 
EAS17 countries are recommended: (i) standards and labelling systems for appliances 
and energy facilities such as boilers and compressors; (ii) energy service companies; (iii) 
increase of next-generation vehicles including hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, plug-in 
hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles; (iv) green building index; (v) and advanced energy 
management system.
Increasing the share of renewable energy – such as hydro, geothermal, solar PV, wind, and 
biomass – will contribute to reduced fossil fuel consumption and mitigate CO2 emissions, 
and thus contribute to INDC/NDC and SDGs. It will require appropriate government 
policies such as renewable targets, legal approaches such as FiT/Renewable Portfolio 
Standards (RPS), and revised FiT to include bidding and tendering processes. 
Energy supply security in the EAS17 region is a top priority energy issue. EEC and 
renewable energy contribute to maintaining regional energy security by reducing fossil 
fuel consumption and increasing the use of domestic energy. Moreover, energy supply 
sources can be diversified through regional energy networks such as the Trans-ASEAN 
Gas Pipeline, including LNG transportation as virtual pipeline, and the ASEAN Power Grid 
(APG) with region-wide electricity trade market. The Lao PDR, Thailand, and Myanmar 
are a starting point of the APG. Oil stockpiling and nuclear power generation are other 
options to secure energy supply in the region.
According to the energy outlook’s results, as coal power generation will still be dominant 
in the EAS region in 2040, the greater use of clean coal technology and development of 
CCS technology are critical because they will make coal-fired power plants in the region 
carbon free. Hydrogen technology also has a key role as an alternative to fossil fuels, as it 
can be applied across sectors, such as the power generation, industry, and road transport 
sectors.


51
This energy outlook also estimates the necessary investment cost for combined energy 
infrastructure such as power generation, LNG-receiving terminals, and refineries. 
The EAS17 region will need around US4trillionfortheconstructionofpowerplants,refineries,andLNG−receivingterminalsintheBAUscenario,butpowergenerationplantswillbethelargestshareestimatedatUS3.5 trillion. ASEAN needs about US686billionintheBAUscenarioforthetotalenergyinfrastructureofcombinedpowergeneration,refineries,andLNG−receivingterminals,andUS605 billion in the APS. The difference 
comes from refineries and LNG-receiving terminals due to savings in oil and gas 
consumption. In the BAU scenario, a lot of money will be allocated to coal-fired power 
plants (clean coal technology), whereas under the APS, more money will be allocated 
to low-carbon energy electricity, such as nuclear, geothermal hydropower, solar PV/
wind, and biomass. Consequently, financing schemes to develop energy infrastructure 
such as public–private partnership, public financing of international/regional banks, clean 
development mechanism, and/or joint credit mechanism, etc. will be essential.
References
ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) (2013), ASEAN Guideline on Off-grid Rural 
Electrification Approaches, Jakarta: ACE.
ASEAN Secretariat (2007), Cebu Declaration on East Asian Energy Security 2007. 
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February 2008).
Energy Department, Prime Minister’s Office (2015), Brunei Darussalam Energy White 
Paper, Bandar Seri Begawan.
ERIA (2015), Scenario Analysis of Energy Security in the East Asia Summit Region. 
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No.35.html
IEA (2017a), Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2014. Paris: OECD Publishing.
IEA (2017b), Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries 2015. Paris: OECD Publishing.
IEA (2017c), World Energy Outlook 2017. Paris: International Energy Agency. https://
webstore.iea.org/world-energy-outlook-2017
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) (2014), Asia/World Energy Outlook 
2014. Tokyo, Japan. https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/5875.pdf (accessed 20 February 
2018).
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) (2016), Asia/World Energy Outlook 
2016. Tokyo, Japan. https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/7199.pdf (accessed 20 February 
2018).
IPCC (2007), ‘Summary for Policymakers in Climate Change 2007: Mitigation,’ In B. 
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Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press. 
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) (2007), ‘EAS Cooperation on Energy 
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2007.
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worldbank.org/ddp/home.do (accessed June 2016).


53
AUSTRALIA COUNTRY REPORT
Shamim Ahmad, Department of the Environment and Energy, 
Australia  
Lu Zheng, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
1.   Introduction
Australia is the largest country in Oceania, and the sixth-largest country in the world 
by total area.  It has a land area of around 7.7 million square kilometres, and is diverse 
in geography and climate. It has six states and two territories. Over the past 25 years, 
Australia’s population grew at an average annual rate of 1.3%, from 17.1 million in 1990 
to 23.8 million in 2015.  
Australia’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an average annual rate of 3.1%, from 
US636billionin1990toUS1.36 trillion in 2015 (constant 2010 US$ values), which 
translates the increase of Australia’s per capita income from around US$37,300 in 1990 
to US$56,950 in 2015. Economic activities are focused on the eastern and southeastern 
seaboard, where most of the population lives. For example, in 2016, only three states – 
New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland – generated 73% of Australia’s GDP, while 
these states represent 32%, 25%, and 20% of the national population, respectively (Carr 
et al., 2017).
1.1.  Energy Situation
Australia has abundant, high-quality, and diverse non-renewable and renewable energy 
resources. Its non-renewable energy resources include fossil fuels (coal, gas, and oil) and 
nuclear energy fuels (uranium and potentially thorium). Australia has 1.27 million tons 
of economic demonstrated resources of uranium, which is equivalent to 16,984 million 
tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) or 711,076 petajoules (Geoscience Australia, 2018). This 
amount is more than one-third of the world’s uranium resources. Australia also has a major 
share of the world’s thorium resources, and thorium could be an alternative to uranium as 
a nuclear fuel in the future.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The country has 70,927 million tons of recoverable black coal resources, which is 10% 
of the world’s black coal resources. It has a further 76,508 million tons of brown coal 
resources, about 24% of the world’s brown coal reserves (Geoscience Australia, 2017). 
Australia’s substantial conventional and unconventional gas resources account for almost 
2% of the world’s gas resources, and it has a relatively small share (0.2%) of crude oil 
resources (BP, 2017). The amount of recoverable resources is expected to grow with 
further exploration, and these resources are expected to last for many more decades, 
even if production increases. 
Australia also has large, widely distributed wind, solar, geothermal, hydroelectricity, 
ocean energy, and bioenergy resources. Wind energy technology is relatively mature, 
and its uptake is growing faster in the country. Generation capacity of solar electricity 
is also increasing rapidly due to the rapid reductions of solar technology costs. Australia 
has the highest solar radiation per square metre in the world. No substantial expansion of 
traditional hydropower will likely occur due to the dry climate and low water runoff over 
most of Australia. Pumped hydro for electricity storage is being examined at existing hydro 
installations and new sites.
Australia’s energy resources play a significant role in the country’s economic prosperity. 
Coal and gas resources support not only domestic consumption but also significant export 
earnings. In 2015, Australia was the world’s eighth-largest energy producer (381.3 Mtoe), 
accounting for 2.8% of global primary energy supply. It was the world’s 21st-largest energy 
consumer, accounting for 0.9% (125.3 Mtoe) of world primary energy supply (IEA, 2017). 
Primary energy supply is largely based on fossil fuels. In 2015, coal contributed about 
34% of primary energy supply; oil, 33%; and natural gas, 26%. Renewables contributed the 
remaining 7%, consisting of hydro (1%), solar and wind (2%), and biofuel and waste (4%) 
(IEA, 2017).
Australia plays a prominent role in meeting the increasing energy demand of the Asia-
Pacific region and the world. In 2015, Australia was the world’s fourth-largest energy 
exporter; it exported 78% of its energy production, consisting largely of coal and liquefied 
natural gas. It is the world’s largest exporter of metallurgical coal and the second-largest 
exporter of thermal coal (IEA, 2017). It is also a large exporter of uranium. With limited 
crude oil resources, Australia is a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products; it is 
increasingly reliant on imports for its transport fuels.


55
Over the past 25 years, Australia’s gross electricity generation has increased at an average 
annual rate of 2% from 154 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 1990 to 252 TWh in 2015. In 2015, 
coal accounted for almost two-thirds (63%) of total electricity generation; followed by 
natural gas, 21%; hydro, 5%; oil, 3%; and others (non-hydro renewables), 8%. Coal still 
dominates Australia’s electricity generation mix, though its share has fallen from 79% in 
1990 to 63% in 2015. The share of natural gas and non-hydro renewables in the generation 
mix has increased significantly over this period. 
2.  Modelling Assumptions 
Australia’s GDP is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 2.5% between 2015 to 
2040, compared with the average annual growth rate of 3.1% between 1990 and 2015. 
The Australian economy will gradually shift from energy-intensive industries towards less 
energy-intensive ones. Its GDP growth will gradually decrease towards the end of the 
projection period. Australia’s population is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 
1% between 2015 to 2040, which is marginally slower than the average annual growth rate 
of about 1.3% from 1990 to 2015.
Fossil fuels will remain the dominant energy source in Australia’s primary energy mix due 
to their relative abundance and costs. In electricity generation, no new coal plants will 
be installed, and the share of coal-fired electricity generation will decrease due to the 
scheduled closure and/or retirement of a few coal-fired electricity plants. Gas-fired 
electricity and non-hydro renewable electricity generation is assumed to rise to meet the 
increasing demand over the projection period.
The Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) assumes the implementation of improved efficiency 
of final energy consumption in the end-use sectors. The APS will see more efficient 
thermal power generation, and a higher contribution of renewable energy to the total 
supply. Combined effects of these measures are assumed to provide maximum energy 
savings over the projection period. Energy savings in the industry sector are assumed 
to be achieved from improvements in large energy-intensive industries, and closure of 
inefficient small plants. Structural changes are assumed to gradually shift the economy 
away from energy-intensive industries. In the residential and commercial sectors, efficient 
end-use technologies and energy management systems are assumed to further achieve 
energy savings. The transport sector is assumed to be more energy efficient through 
improved vehicle standards and fuel economy. Rapid uptake of energy-efficient electric 
vehicles for private and public transport is assumed to occur during the second half of the 
projection period. 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
This study further attempts to develop a Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 
scenario to analyse Australia’s emissions reduction target for 2030. This scenario in this 
study is designed to meet Australia’s emissions reduction target of 26%–28% below the 
2005 level by 2030.
3.   Outlook Results 
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Under the BAU scenario, total final energy consumption in Australia is projected to 
increase from 81.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 94.1 Mtoe in 2040, a rise of about 15.7% over the 
projection period and an average annual rate of increase at 0.6% (Figure 2.1). The strongest 
growth is projected to occur in the ‘others’ sector (e.g. residential and services sectors), 
increasing at 1.3% per year between 2015 and 2040. The growth of energy consumption 
in the transport sector is projected to remain slow (0.1% per year) over the projection 
period, though it saw relatively strong growth (1.7% per year) in the past 25 years.
Figure 2.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU Scenario
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Others
Transportation
Industry
Non-energy
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
57
70
81
84
90
94


57
Electricity consumption is projected to have the fastest growth at an average annual rate 
of 1.7% per year between 2015 and 2040 (Figure 2.2). Natural gas is projected to increase 
at the second highest rate of 0.7% per year. Petroleum products are projected to see a 
slower growth rate, with an average rate of 0.1% per year. Coal consumption is expected 
to decline at an average rate of 0.9% per year.
3.1.2. 
 Primary energy supply
Under the BAU scenario, Australia’s primary energy supply is projected to increase from 
125.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 140.1 Mtoe in 2040 at an average annual rate of 0.4% (Figure 2.3). 
Coal consumption is expected to decline at an annual average rate of 0.8% during this 
period, and growth in oil consumption is projected to remain flat. Natural gas will increase 
at 1.5% per year between 2015 and 2040, where its share in the primary energy mix is 
expected to increase from about 26% in 2015 to 34% in 2040. The overall share of fossil 
fuel in Australia’s primary energy supply will decline from 94% in 2015 to 89% in 2040.
Figure 2.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Heat
Others
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
57
70
81
84
90
94
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 2.3: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
86
103
125
129
137
140
 ‘Others’ (including non-hydro renewables) is projected to increase by 2.7% a year over 
the projection period. The share of ‘others’ is expected to increase from 5.7% in 2015 to 
about 10% in 2040, where the major contribution to this increase would come from solar 
and wind followed by biofuels and biomass. Solar, wind, and ocean energy together are 
expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.9% between 2015 and 2040.
3.1.3. 
 Power generation 
Electricity generation in Australia, under the BAU scenario, is projected to increase from 
252.3 TWh in 2015 to 373.7 TWh in 2040 at an average rate of 1.6% per year (Figure 
2-4). The share of coal in Australia’s power generation mix is projected to fall from 63% in 
2015 to 38% in 2040, which will still maintain its largest share in the generation mix under 
the BAU scenario. Coal share will decline due to the scheduled closure and retirement of 
some old coal-fired generation plants. Generation from oil is also projected to decline at 
an average rate of 0.1% per year, and the share of oil in the generation mix will decline from 
2.7% in 2015 to 1.8% in 2040. In contrast, the share of natural gas–fired generation will 
increase from 21% in 2015 to 32% in 2040, and natural gas use in electricity generation is 
projected to grow at an average rate of 3.3% per year over the period.


59
3.2.  Energy Saving and CO2 Reduction Potential 
3.2.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Under the APS, final energy consumption is projected to increase at a slower rate of 
0.2% per year from 81.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 84.5 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 2.5). This shows 
energy savings of 9.6 Mtoe, or 10.2%, under the APS in 2040, compared to that of the 
BAU scenario in 2040. The slower growth in demand is expected to occur across all end-
use sectors, excluding the non-energy sector. The transport sector is projected to see the 
highest energy savings followed by the ‘others’ (residential and commercial) sector. These 
reflect the improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency and end-use technologies. 
In 2040, under the APS, estimated savings are 2.0 Mtoe (7.3%) in the industry sector, 4.5 
Mtoe (13.4%) in the transport sector, and 3.0 Mtoe (10.6%) in the ‘others’ sector (Figure 
2.5).
Hydro’s share in Australia’s power generation mix is expected to decline slightly from 5.3% 
in 2015 to 4.7% by 2040. Electricity generation from ‘others’ (non-hydro renewables) 
is expected to grow faster at an average rate of 6% per year between 2015 and 2040. 
Declining costs of wind and solar technology would partly contribute to the faster growth 
of electricity generation from ‘others’ (including wind and solar) in Australia.
Figure 2.4: Power Generation under BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
154
210
252
275
325
374
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 2.5: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS
BAU = Business-As-Usual, APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Source: Authors’ calculation.
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0
–13.4%
–10.6%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–7.3%
Under the NDC scenario, final energy consumption is forecast to decrease at a rate 
of 0.6% per year from 81.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 70.5 Mtoe in 2040. Therefore, the NDC 
scenario shows further savings of 14 Mtoe final energy compared to the savings under 
the APS. The highest contribution to final energy savings would come from the transport 
sector, followed by ‘others’ (i.e. residential and services) in this scenario. 
3.2.2. 
 Primary energy supply 
Under the APS, Australia’s primary energy supply is projected to decrease at a rate of 0.2% 
per year from 125.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 119.9 Mtoe in 2040. This implies that in 2040, under 
the APS, savings of primary energy supply will be around 20.1 Mtoe or 14.4% compared 
to BAU (Figure 2.6).


61
Figure 2.6: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
145.0
140.0
135.0
130.0
125.0
120.0
115.0
110.0
105.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
20.13 Mtoe, –14.4%
Figure 2.7: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–23.3%
–18.0%
24.0%
–16.8%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Primary energy supply in the APS is expected to decline for coal at 1.8% per year 
(compared to a decline of 0.8% per year in the BAU scenario) over the projection period. 
This will result in a saving of coal consumption by about 8.3 Mtoe in 2040 compared 
to the BAU scenario. Similarly, the negative growth of oil demand (0.7% per year) will 
save oil consumption of about 7.1 Mtoe in 2040. With an average annual growth of 
0.7%, savings on natural gas consumption will be about 8.4 Mtoe compared to the BAU 
scenario. However, the demand for ‘others’ (renewables) is expected to increase by about 
3.7 Mtoe, or 24%, compared to the BAU scenario in 2040 (Figure 2.7).
Primary energy supply under the NDC scenario is projected to decline at a rate of 1.3% per 
year, from 125.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 89.3 Mtoe in 2040. Therefore, this scenario provides 
additional savings of 31 Mtoe of primary energy compared to the APS in 2040. The share 
of renewables in the primary energy mix needs to increase from 11% in 2015 to about 27% 
in 2040 under the NDC scenario.
3.3.  CO2 Emissions 
CO2 emissions from energy consumption under the BAU scenario are projected to increase 
by 0.1% per year from 98.8 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 100.3 Mt-C in 2040 
(Figure 2.8). The growth in emissions appears to be less than the projected growth in 
primary energy supply, reflecting increased use of fewer carbon-intensive energy sources 
over the period. 
In the APS, CO2 emissions are projected to decrease at an average annual rate of 0.8% 
from 98.8 Mt-C in 2015 to 80.0 Mt-C in 2040. Emissions savings in the APS will be about 
20% compared to the BAU scenario in 2040. The lower growth rate for the APS indicates 
that the energy-saving options are effective in reducing CO2 emissions in Australia. 
Reduced demand for coal in power generation and in final demand, including reduced oil 
consumption in the transport sector, will contribute the most to the expected reduction 
of CO2 emissions in the APS.


63
CO2 emissions under the NDC scenario will decline at an average annual rate of 2.6% 
from 100.3 Mt-C to 50.5 Mt-C in 2040. This is about 50% reduction of CO2 emissions 
compared to the BAU scenario in 2040. 
In 2005, energy-related CO2 emissions in Australia were 94.1 Mt-C. In 2030, such 
emissions are projected to be 101.9 Mt-C in the BAU scenario, 88.8 Mt-C in the APS, and 
69.5 Mt-C in the NDC scenario. It appears that the energy-related emissions reduction 
target of 26%–28% below the 2005 level by 2030 will not be achieved under the APS. 
The NDC scenario in this study is designed to meet Australia’s emissions reduction target 
of 26% below the 2005 level by 2030, by further enhancing the assumptions of energy 
efficiency and renewable energy.
Figure 2.8: CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4. 
  Implications 
• 
Fossil fuels – namely, coal, oil, and gas – will continue to dominate the energy mix in 
both the BAU scenario and the APS.
• 
Coal will continue to dominate Australia’s electricity generation mix over the period up 
to 2040; however, the share of coal in the power mix is projected to decline. Advance 
technologies for power generation would be necessary to enhance efficiency, energy 
savings, and emissions reduction. 
• 
Australia has substantial reserves and a secure supply of coal. Coal prices are 
expected to remain much lower over the long term. Coal-fired generation is likely 
to remain cheaper than other energy sources. However, global attempts to curb 
emissions would put pressure on Australia to adopt low-emission technologies for 
power generation. The use of efficient and clean coal technologies will be necessary. 
Research, development, and deployment of clean energy technologies will play a key 
role.
• 
Substantial expansion of traditional hydropower will likely not occur due to the dry 
climate and low water runoff in much of Australia. While wind and solar technology 
costs are going to fall more quickly over the next 25 years, the growth of renewable 
energy will likely come from large-scale adoption of wind and solar energy supported 
by energy storage. Better integration of variable renewable energy sources into 
Australia’s energy systems will be necessary.
• 
Energy efficiency and demand-side management are important. The implementation 
of improved and efficient end-use technologies will reduce final energy consumption 
in the end-use sectors. Energy savings in the industry sector will come from the 
improved efficiency  of large energy-intensive industries.
• 
Oil will continue to supply Australia’s transport fuel needs. Improved vehicle fuel 
efficiency and uptake of electric vehicles would reduce oil demand in the transport 
sector. Investment in new petroleum refinery plants may be necessary to reduce 
import dependence of transport fuel. 


65
References
BP (2017), BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017, 66th ed. London: BP, 
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp-country/de_ch/PDF/bp-statistical-review-
of-world-energy-2017-full-report.pdf (accessed 17 May 2018).
Carr, T., K. Fernandes, and T. Rosewall (2017), ‘The Recent Economic Performance of 
the States’, RBA Bulletin, March Quarter 2017, pp.1–12.
Geoscience Australia (2017), Australia’s Identified Mineral Resources 2017. Canberra: 
Geoscience Australia, http://www.ga.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/58874/
Australias-Identified-Mineral-Resources-2017.pdf (accessed 17 May 2018).
Geoscience Australia (2018), Australian Energy Resources Assessment 2018. Canberra: 
Geoscience Australia, http://aera.ga.gov.au/ (accessed 17 May  2018).
IEA (2017), World Energy Balances (2017 ed.). Paris: International Energy Agency.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM COUNTRY 
REPORT
Ministry of Energy and Industry, Brunei Darussalam
1.   Background
Brunei Darussalam (Brunei) is a small nation on the northwest coast of the island of 
Borneo. It is located in Southeast Asia and has a coastline of 161 kilometres along the 
South China Sea in the north. The East Malaysian state of Sarawak completely surrounds 
Brunei on all other sides. The country has a total land area of only 5,765 square kilometres 
and comprises four main districts: Belait, Tutong, Temburong, and Brunei-Muara. Its 
capital city is Bandar Seri Begawan located in the Brunei-Muara district. Because of its 
proximity to the equator, the country experiences a hot and wet climate throughout the 
year.
Brunei Darussalam is an economy with great economic potential. Its gross domestic 
product (GDP) in 2015 was US$13.9 billion at constant year 2010. With a population of 
416,500, Brunei’s GDP per capita was US$33,340 at constant year 2010. About 60% of 
Brunei’s GDP is generated by the energy sector. This reflects the significant contribution 
of this sector to the country’s economy. The energy sector also dominates Brunei’s export 
value as crude oil, natural gas (in the form of liquefied natural gas), and methanol exports 
account for more than 90% of its total exports, which are primarily destined to Japan, the 
Republic of  Korea, India, China, and (ASEAN) countries.
To drive the economy into a sustainable future, the country supports the implementation 
of three strategic goals set out in the Brunei Darussalam’s Energy White Paper launched 
in March 2014. The White Paper sets out strategic goal 2, which is specifically for energy 
supply and demand, i.e. to ensure a safe, secure, reliable, and efficient supply of energy 
in Brunei Darussalam. Strategic goal 1 focuses on strengthening oil and gas upstream and 
downstream activities while goal 3 focuses on maximising economic spin-off from the 
energy sector. 
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67
2.   Energy Supply and Consumption in 2015
Oil and natural gas remain the main sources of energy for Brunei Darussalam. In 2015, 
the total primary energy supply (TPES) of the country for both energy sources was 3.26 
million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in total, with 3.07 Mtoe or 94.3% from natural gas 
(Table 3.1). 
Brunei Darussalam has 922 MW of installed capacity in power generation of public 
utilities, including a solar photovoltaic (PV) at 1.2 MW. Electricity production from the 
public utilities in 2015 was 3.78 terawatt-hours (TWh). In the same year, the installed 
capacity of auto producers was 116.99 MW, which produced 0.39 TWh of electricity.
The total final energy consumption (TFEC) of Brunei Darussalam in 2015 was 0.81 Mtoe, 
with the transport sector having the highest energy demand at 0.31 Mtoe or 38.27%  of 
the TFEC. This is followed by the ‘others’ sector (34.57%), industry sector (24.69%), and 
non-energy use (2.47%). In terms of energy source, oil accounted for 65.43% of final 
energy consumption, followed by electricity at 32.10% and gas at 2.47%.
Table 3.1: Energy Supply and Consumption 2015 (Mtoe)
Supply and Consumption
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Total
Primary energy supply
Indigenous production
8.88
11.19
-
20.07
Net import and others
-8.69
-8.12
-
-16.81
Total primary energy supply
0.19
3.07
-
3.26
Final energy consumption
Industry sector
0.18
-
0.02
0.20
Transport sector
0.31
-
-
0.31
Others sectora
0.02
0.02
0.24
0.28
Non-energy
0.02
-
-
0.02
Total final energy consumption
0.53
0.02
0.26
0.81
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
aThe ‘others’ sector includes the residential and commercial sectors.
Source: Author’s calculation.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.   Energy Policies 
3.1.  Supply 
Brunei seeks to expand exploration areas to increase reserves and ensure long-term 
sustainability and conservation of oil and gas reserves. A core focus as well is to rejuvenate 
the current producing assets to enhance recovery from the field and maximise production, 
which are  aligned with the national vision, Wawasan Brunei 2035. The country is also 
maximising its potential for economic spin-off from upstream production and assets. In 
this regard, Brunei Darussalam has set strategies to strengthen and grow the upstream and 
downstream activities of oil and gas, with the targets set as follows:
1) To sustain a reserve replacement ratio of greater than 1 also means ensuring that 
Brunei continues to benefit from production in the energy sector in the long term;
2) To increase production of oil and gas to 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 
2035;
3) To grow revenue from domestic downstream industries and reach at least B$5 billion 
by 2035 through the development of infrastructure and facilities, including chemical 
and petrochemical plants and a refinery.
Despite its aspiration to increase oil and gas production to 650 kboe per day by 2035, 
the country acknowledges the importance of reducing energy intensity by 45% by 2035 
in line with its commitment to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Brunei has also 
targeted to increase the share of its power generation mix from renewable energy to at 
least 10% by 2035. It has considered and started to develop renewable energy, particularly 
solar PV and waste-to-energy, which are deemed feasible at this stage. To support the 
development of renewable energy sources, the government plans to introduce renewable 
energy policies and regulatory frameworks that will stimulate investment from both the 
public and the private sectors in developing and deploying renewable energy.
3.2.  Consumption 
Brunei has been actively improving energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) to reduce 
energy intensity by 2035. In achieving the energy intensity target, relevant government 
agencies and industries have been collaborating to set up legislation and to introduce 
financial and fiscal policy measures that promote energy efficiency and low energy-
intensive industries. Industries’ roles include identification of technical levers that may 
assist the reduction of energy use over time while individuals shift consumption behaviour 
towards energy efficiency that include making choices on highly energy-efficient 
appliances.


69
Brunei Darussalam Country Report
Efforts towards achieving EEC targets were through power generation efficiency, standard 
and labelling, fuel economy regulation, EEC building guidelines, street lighting alternate 
switching off, and LED-fitting lighting for street lights.
The Department of Electrical Services and Berakas power management company  play 
major roles in setting out plans to increase power generation efficiency. The plan will 
emphasise the implementation of combined-cycle turbine and cogeneration power plants, 
reduction of partial load operation, and improvement of transmission and distribution 
losses.
4. 
  Outlook Result
4.1.   Final Energy Consumption
Business-As-Usual  Scenario
Under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the projected TFEC in the year 2040 is 
4.78 Mtoe. The increase of projected TFEC is linked to the GDP growth rate which, in 
the model, is set at a constant rate of 5.6% per year over the projection period. The high 
GDP growth rate is supported by the country’s aspiration to strengthen its economic 
structure to develop the commercial, services, and industry sectors. For instance, as per 
projection from the BAU scenario, industry TFEC  in 2040 is expected to grow to 1.13 
Mtoe, compared with 0.20 Mtoe in 2015. 
In 2040, the share of oil in the country’s total demand will be 65%, mainly to be consumed 
as transportation fuel. In 2015, the TFEC of oil was 0.52 Mtoe and is projected to increase 
to 1.75 Mtoe in 2040. The model also predicts that the demand for electricity will increase 
at an average of 6.6% per year, from 0.26 Mtoe in 2015 to 1.26 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 3.1).


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Alternative Policy Scenario
An Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) was developed as a basis to estimate the energy 
saving potential for Brunei Darussalam to achieve the energy intensity reduction targets 
through the deployment of advanced technologies for energy saving and enforcement of 
relevant initiatives. Under the APS, the overall TFEC in 2040 will be 3.86 Mtoe. In 2040, 
the ‘others’ sector will require about 14.8% of energy demand, followed by the transport 
sector at 15.5% and the industry sector at 24.4%. Demand of the non-energy sector will 
be at 45.1%. 
The improvement in vehicle fuel efficiency in the future due to proposed fuel economy 
regulations would be the main factor for the declining growth rate of demand in the 
transport sector. For the period 2015–2040, the TFEC will grow at 2.7% per year on 
average. Referring to the results of the LEAP1 model for energy outlook, the TFEC under 
the APS will be reduced by 19.2% compared to the BAU scenario. The ‘others’ sector 
(residential and commercial sectors) will decrease  by 39.4%; transport, by 37.5%; and 
industry, by 16.9% from the BAU scenario. Meanwhile, non-energy use will also decline 
by 0.3% (Figure 3.2).
Figure 3.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
1 
LEAP stands for Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System.


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Brunei Darussalam Country Report
Figure 3.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
–37.5%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–16.9%
–39.4%
–0.3%
4.2  Primary Energy Supply
Business-As-Usual Scenario
Under the BAU scenario, the TPES of Brunei is projected to reach 9.39 Mtoe in 2040, 
increasing at 4.3% per year from 3.26 Mtoe in 2015. Its TPES was dominated by natural 
gas at 94.2% in 2015, while oil share was about 5.8%.  
The TPES for natural gas is expected to increase at 3.3% per year from 3.07 Mtoe in 2015 
to 6.86 Mtoe in 2040. The country will continue to be a net exporter of energy in the 
future.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Alternative Policy Scenario
A significant decrease in the TPES for oil and natural gas is projected between the BAU 
scenario and the APS in 2040. In 2040, oil supply under the APS will be 1.25 Mtoe against 
the BAU scenario at 1.84 Mtoe, or 32.1% lower. Natural gas supply under the APS is also 
predicted to be lower by 9.3% compared to the BAU scenario. However, supply from 
renewable energy, particularly from solar and waste-to-energy sources, will significantly 
increase (Figure 3.3).
4.3  Power Generation
In Brunei Darussalam, power generation capacity from public utilities is dominated by 
natural gas. From 806.2 MW of installed capacity (including 1.2 MW solar PV), diesel 
contributes only 12 MW. In addition to the public utilities capacity, autoproducers’ 
capacity in 2015 was 116.9 MW. Based on the model projection under BAU, about 17.74 
TWh of electricity will be generated in 2040 from both public utilities and autoproducers, 
including from renewable energy of 0.05 TWh. Under the APS, electricity generation in 
2040 is projected at about 13.08 TWh, a decrease of 26.3% in electricity generation from 
the BAU scenario, which includes renewable energy at 0.9 TWh. The decrease is due to 
the decommissioning of the diesel power plants in Temburong in 2021. As planned in the 
Figure 3.3: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
–32.1%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–76.9%
–9.3%
519%


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Brunei Darussalam Country Report
APS, all thermal power plants in Brunei Darussalam will be combined-cycle gas turbines 
(with improved efficiency of 45%) and cogeneration power plants.
4.4  Projected Energy Savings2
The energy saving potential that could be achieved through the implementation of 
legislative measures on EEC, as well as the development of renewable energy in Brunei 
Darussalam, is about 1.76 Mtoe of the TPES, or equivalent to a reduction of 18.7% from 
the BAU scenario in 2040. 
4.5  Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Business-As-Usual Scenario
The percentage increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions correlates to the increase 
in the TPES. This is expected because the energy mix for Brunei Darussalam is 99% 
dependent on fossil fuels. In 2015, the LEAP model shows 6.7 million tons of carbon 
(Mt-C). An increase of 3.6% per year is expected with an eventual value of 16.0 Mt-C in 
2040 (Figure 3.5).
2 
The difference between primary energy consumption in BAU and the APS.
Figure 3.4: Reduction of Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
1.76 Mtoe, -18.7%


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Alternative Policy Scenario
As of this writing, Brunei Darussalam is still finalising the Nationally Determined 
Contributions (NDC)  target, which will be reported before 2020. Therefore, the current 
APS is equal to the target of the NDC. In the APS, CO2 emissions could decrease by 27.9% 
in 2040 compared to the BAU scenario. The results of the model show that a total of 10.6 
Mt-C will be emitted by 2040. The decrease in CO2 is significantly attributed to improved 
efficiencies of power generation plants (Figure 3.5). 
5.   Policy Implications
Based on Brunei’s second national communication submitted to the United Nations 
Framework Convention on Climate Change in November 2017, major mitigation efforts 
of the energy sector mainly focused on the following:
a)  Setting Sustainable Development Targets for the Energy Sector
i)  The energy sector aims to reduce energy intensity by 45% in 2035 from the 
baseline year of 2005. Energy intensity can be reduced through energy efficiency 
improvements and energy conservation as well as by diversifying the economy to 
high value-added but less energy-intensive industries.
Figure 3.5: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0
Million Tons of Oil Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
4.45 Mtoe, 27.9%


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Brunei Darussalam Country Report
ii) Deployment of renewable energy technologies is targeted to increase by 10% by 
2035. This could be achieved by both public and private sector investments on 
these technologies. At present, policy frameworks that incentivise private sector 
investments are being prepared.
b)  Promoting EEC
i)  Improving supply-side efficiency. The government is pursuing a strategy to 
improve efficiency of existing open-cycle gas turbines through the installation of 
heat recovery steam generators while more efficient combined-cycle gas turbines 
are being used for new capacity expansion.
ii)  Managing electricity demand. Demand management is one strategy to reduce the 
use of fossil fuels in electricity generation. This could be achieved by improving 
energy efficiency of the stock of energy technologies and increasing the efficiency 
of the use of existing technologies.
•  
EEC building guidelines and standards and labelling scheme. The Building 
Guidelines and the soon-to-be implemented standards and labelling order 
for electrical appliances are regulatory frameworks that allow only efficient 
technologies to be used in new buildings, and only efficient electrical 
appliances to be sold in the market.
• 
Energy management. The planned energy management scheme will ensure 
that existing equipment and technologies are operating at efficiency levels 
consistent with industry’s best practices.
• 
Tariff reforms. The progressive electricity tariff structure, which was 
introduced in 2012, is an economic tool to manage efficient use of energy by 
providing a financial disincentive to higher energy consumption.
iii)  Managing transport energy demand. Among the end-use sectors, the 
contribution of the transport sector in the overall emissions is significant. Road 
transport energy demand management is key to reducing fossil fuel consumption 
of the sector. The strategies outlined in the Land Transport Master Plan could be 
categorised as follows:
• 
Efficient transport technologies. Promoting the deployment of efficient and 
less-polluting vehicles and fuel technologies is outlined in the 4th strategy of 
the Land Transport Master Plan. The implementation of measures under this 
strategy will improve the overall efficiency of the road transport fleet.
• 
Improving fuel economy through traffic flow improvement. Vehicles often 
reach their optimal fuel economy at specific speeds. Vehicles have lower 
fuel economy at slower speeds. Managing traffic volume and reducing road 
congestion would improve fuel economy of the vehicle fleet.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
• 
 Managing private transport demand. The strategy to reduce car dependency 
through the development of public transport systems would eventually reduce 
individual transport demand and consequently reduce fuel consumption. 
In addition, strengthening the management of the transport infrastructure 
and services would further encourage a shift from individual travel towards a 
mass transport system.
Along with economic development to achieve the objectives of Wawasan Brunei 2035, a 
significant increase in the activity level of all economic sectors, including the energy sector, 
is expected. Despite the increased focus on EEC, energy demand of Brunei Darussalam 
is projected to increase steadily. In meeting the growing domestic energy demand, fossil 
fuels will remain as the primary source of supply for the country. 
The results of the model used by this study show the improvement in energy efficiency, 
when coupled with the implementation of appropriate legislative measures and 
development of renewable energy, contributing to the reduction in the TPES and the 
TFEC at 18.7% and 19.2%, respectively. The model also shows that improvement in 
energy efficiency will help reduce CO2 emissions by 27.9%.


77
CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT
Chiphong Sarasy, Ministry of Mines and Energy, Cambodia
1.   Background
The Kingdom of Cambodia is located in the lower Mekong region of Southeast Asia. The 
country has an area of 181,035 square kilometres; with an 800 kilometre border with 
Thailand in the west, Lao People’s Democratic Republic in the north, and Viet Nam in the 
east. The physical landscape is dominated by lowland plains around the Mekong River and 
Tonle Sap Lake. About 2.5 million hectares are arable land and over 0.5 million hectares 
are pastureland. 
The real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 was almost US$1 15.9 billion (World 
Bank, 2017), comprising agriculture (29%), industry (26.18%), and services (39.43%). 
Cambodia’s economy maintained high economic growth exceeding 7% since 2011. The 
Ministry of Economy and Finance predicted that the GDP growth rate will be maintained 
at the 7% range.
The population census of Cambodia 2008 revealed 13,388,910 people, 56% of whom 
were under 24 years old (NIS, 2009). Cambodia’s population in 2015 was 15.5 million. As 
migration into urban areas has been continuous, the urban population can be more than 
15% of the national population. The population density is about 75 people per square 
kilometres. About 85%–90% reside in rural areas. Phnom Penh, the capital city, has about 
2 million people, and Siem Reap Province has about 100,000.
Cambodia’s power generation facility by fuel type is shown in Table 4.1. The installed capacity 
of hydropower occupied around 55% of the total. The generated energy by hydropower in 
2016 was around 1.2 times as much as in 2015. Cambodia’s hydropower energy potential 
was estimated with the theoretical potential of about 10,000 megawatts (MW), of which 
50% is in the Mekong mainstream, 40% in its tributaries, and the remaining 10% is in the 
southwestern coastal area outside the Mekong River Basin. Hydropower capacity will be 
developed up to 4,000 MW by 2030. Coal-fired power generation will have a capacity of 
403 MW by 2015.
CHAPTER 4
1 
All US$ in this report are in constant 2010 values unless specified.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 4.1: Power Generation Facility by Fuel Type
No
Type of Generation
Installed Capacity (MW)
Proportion in %
for 2016
2015
2016
1
Hydro
   929.7
  930.0
55.3
2
Diesel/heavy fuel oil
  304.6
  304.2
18.1
3
Biomass 
    19.9
  17.6
1.1
4
Coal
 403.0
 429.2
25.5
5
Solar
      0.0
     0.0
0.00
Total
1,657.2
1,689.0
100.00
MW = megawatt.
Source: EAC (2017).
Cambodia’s total primary energy supply in 2015 stood at 7 million tons of oil equivalent 
(Mtoe). Renewable energy (mostly biomass) represented the first-largest share of the 
total primary energy supply at 62.4% while oil was the second-largest share at 27.4%, 
followed by coal at 8.3%. The remaining share is the electricity import (1.9%).
Total final energy consumption was about 6 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2015. 
It is dependent on imports of petroleum products, having no crude oil production or 
oil refining facilities. Its electricity supply is dominated by hydro at 45.5% with oil, coal, 
biomass, and imports accounting for the rest. 
2.   Modelling Assumptions
2.1.  GDP and Population
Forecasting energy demand to 2040 assumes that the GDP of Cambodia will grow at an 
annual rate of 5.5%. Its population, on the other hand, is projected to grow at 1.5% per 
year resulting in a growth rate of GDP per capita of 3.9% per year up to 2040 (Table 4.2).
Table 4.2: Updated Cambodia Energy Information
Year
2015
2020
2030
2040
AAGR (%) 
2015–2040
GDP
15.9
20.8
35.5
60.6
5.5
Population
15.5
16.7
19.4
22.5
1.5
AAGR = aggregate annual growth rate, GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Author’s assumptions based on various consultations.


79
2.2.  Electricity Generation
On future electricity supply, hydro is expected to dominate Cambodia’s fuel mix in 2040, 
followed by coal. This is a big change from the current oil-dominated electricity generation. 
According to the Electricity Supply Development Master Plan for 2010–2020, Cambodia 
will have a total additional installed electricity generation capacity of 3,536 MW, of which 
1,050 MW will come from coal-fired power plants to be installed from 2010 to 2018. 
Hydro will make up 2,606 MW of the total. From 2020 to 2040, hydro will meet the 
additional electricity generation capacity requirements (Tables 4.3 and 4.4). 
Table 4.3: BAU Installed Capacity
Technology
Installed Capacity (MW)
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Coal
535
785
1,385
1,985
2,185
2,485
Oil
264
0
0
0
0
0
Natural gas
0
0
0
900
900
1500
Hydro
979
1,379
2,523
3,819
4,019
4,619
Other
Biomass
74
74
74
74
74
74
Solar, wind
10
10
10
10
300
300
Biofuel
0
0
0
0
0
0
Electricity
416
416
416
416
416
416
Total
2,278
2,664
4,408
7,204
7,894
9,394
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s assumptions based on administrative data of various agencies.
Table 4.4: APS Installed Capacity
Technology
Installed Capacity (MW)
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Coal
535
535
535
535
535
535
Oil
264
0
0
0
0
0
Natural gas
0
300
300
300
300
300
Hydro
979
2,000
2,800
3,600
4,800
5,600
Other
Biomass
74
150
200
300
400
500
Solar, wind
10
100
400
600
800
1,000
Biofuel
0
0
0
0
0
0
Electricity
416
650
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Total
2,278
3,735
5,135
6,535
8,335
9,735
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, MW = megawatt.
Source: Author’s assumptions based on administrative data of various agencies.
Cambodia Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
2.3.  Energy Efficiency and Conservation Policies
Cambodia’s energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) policies aim to achieve an integrated 
and sustainable programme that will facilitate improvements in energy efficiency in the 
major energy-consuming sectors and help prevent wasteful fuel consumption. To achieve 
these aims, the country realises the need to transform the market towards more efficient 
energy use, increased access to energy efficiency project financing, and the establishment 
of energy efficiency regulatory frameworks. As a start, Cambodia is implementing the 
following pilot projects:
• 
Improving the efficiency of the overall supply chain for home lighting in rural areas by 
providing decentralised rural energy services through a new generation of rural energy 
entrepreneurs.
• 
Assisting in market transformation for home and office electrical appliances through 
bulk purchases and dissemination of high-performance lamps, showcasing of energy-
efficient products, support to competent organisations for testing and certification 
of energy-efficient products, and establishment of ‘green learning rooms’ in selected 
schools to impart life-long education on the relevance of EEC.
• 
Improving energy efficiency in buildings and public facilities.
• 
Improving energy efficiency in industries in cooperation with the United Nations 
Industrial Development Organization and the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy 
(now changed to Ministry of Mines and Energy) to be implemented in the following 
sectors: rice mill, brick kiln, rubber refinery, and garment.
Cambodia has also started preparing an action plan for EEC in cooperation with the Energy 
Efficiency Design sub-working group. Specific actions plans are being drafted for the 
industry, transport, and ‘others’ sectors. The initial estimates of sector demand reduction 
of existing consumers from these actions plans are 10% by 2015 and 15% by 2035 relative 
to the BAU scenario. These initial estimates were used in forecasting the energy demand 
in the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS).
The previous Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy, in close consultation with the 
European Union Energy Initiative Partnership Dialogue Facility , agreed to launch a project 
to support the Royal Government of Cambodia in the elaboration of the National Energy 
Efficiency Policy, Strategy and Action Plan (MIME, 2013). The inception phase of the 
project began in August 2012; the project was concluded in April 2013 through a final 
workshop, which elaborated the recommendations and conclusion in the plan.


81
The National Energy Efficiency Policy, Strategy and Action Plan targets energy efficiency 
in the following priority areas: industry, end-user products, buildings, rural electricity 
generation and distribution, and use of biomass resources for residential and industrial 
purposes.
The energy efficiency assumptions in the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning 
System, or LEAP model, are based on the assessment of the energy efficiency potential 
for buildings, industry, and transport. The overarching target of the National Energy 
Efficiency Policy is to reduce energy demand by 20% in 2035 relative to the BAU scenario. 
2.4.  Cambodia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions 
 
 
 (INDC)
Cambodia’s intended greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation contribution for the non- 
LULUCF2 sectors, conditional upon the availability of support from the international 
community, will be a reduction of 3,100 total greenhouse gas emissions (Gg CO2e) 
compared to the baseline emissions of 11,600 Gg CO2e by 2030. This amounts to 27% 
reduction of GHG emissions by 2030 (Table 4.5).
2 
Land use, land-use change, and forestry. 
Table 4.5: Cambodia’s INDC Targets
Sector
Priority Action
Reduction as Gg 
CO2eq  and % in 
2030 Compared to 
the Baseline 
Energy industry
• National grid connected renewable energy generation 
(solar energy, hydropower, biomass, and biogas) and 
connecting decentralised renewable generation to the grid 
• Off-grid electricity such as solar home systems, hydro (pico, 
mini, and micro) 
• Promoting energy efficiency by end users 
1,800 (16%)
Manufacturing 
industries
Promoting use of renewable energy and adopting energy 
efficiency for garment factories, rice mills, and brick kilns. 
727 (7%)
Transport
• Promoting mass public transport 
• Improving operation and maintenance of vehicles through 
motor vehicle inspection and eco-driving, and the increased 
use of hybrid cars, electric vehicles, and bicycles 
390 (3%)
Other
• Promoting energy efficiency for buildings and more efficient 
cook stoves 
• Reducing emissions from waste through use of biodigesters 
and water filters 
• Using of renewable energy for irrigation and solar lamps 
155 (1%)
Total Savings
3,100 (27%)
Gg CO2e - total greenhouse gas emissions, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. 
Source: Kingdom of Cambodia (2015).
Cambodia Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.   Outlook Results 
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Primary energy consumption in Cambodia grew at 4.6% per year, which is a slightly faster 
rate than final energy demand from 2.84 Mtoe in 1995 to 7.04 Mtoe in 2015. Amongst 
the major energy sources, oil grew the fastest. Oil consumption grew at an average annual 
rate of 6.9% between 1995 and 2015 (Figure 4.1).
In  the BAU scenario, Cambodia’s primary energy consumption is projected to increase 
at an annual rate of 3.1% per year or 2.2 times, from 7.04 Mtoe in 2015 to 15.24 Mtoe 
in 2040. The fastest growth is expected in hydro, increasing at an annual average rate of 
9.1% between 2015 and 2040, followed by coal (6.7%) and oil (3.7%). The share of hydro 
is projected to increase from 2.4% in 2015 to 9.9% in 2040. This growth in the share is due 
to the huge potential of water reserves available in Cambodia. The share of oil is projected 
to increase from 27.4% in 2015 to 31.2% in 2040 due to the growth of the number of cars 
and motorbikes.
Figure 4.1: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = miilion tons of oil equivalent. 
Source: Author’s calculation.
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe


83
The strongest growth in demand is projected to occur in the transport sector at an average 
annual rate of 3.9% per year or 2.6 times, from 1.39 Mtoe in 2015 to 3.59 Mtoe in 2040. 
In addition, the industry sector is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3.5% or 2.3 times, 
from 1.03 Mtoe in 2015 to 2.41 Mtoe in 2040, followed by the non-energy sector at 3.2% 
(from 0.05 Mtoe in 2015 to 0.10 Mtoe in 2040) and the ‘others’ sector at  2% (from 3.45 
Mtoe in 2015 to 5.67 Mtoe in 2040).
3.1.2. 
 Final energy demand
3.1.2.1. By sector
Cambodia’s final energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 4.3% per year, from 
2.54 Mtoe in 1995 to 5.93 Mtoe in 2015.
 
In the BAU scenario, driven by assumed strong economic growth and an increasing 
population, final energy demand is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.8% 
or around 2 times, from 5.93 Mtoe in 2015 to 11.77 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 4.2).
Figure 4.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = miilion tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Others
Transportation
Industry
Non-energy
Cambodia Country Report


84
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.1.2.2. By fuel type
Electricity is projected to exhibit the fastest growth in final energy demand at 8.4% per 
year, or 7.6 times, from 0.43 Mtoe in 2015 to 3.24 Mtoe in 2040. Oil is projected to have 
the second-highest growth rate of 3.8% per year or 2.5 times, from 1.87 Mtoe in 2015 to 
4.75 Mtoe in 2040. ‘Others’, which mainly include solid and liquid biofuels, will increase 
at 0.2% per year from 3.62 Mtoe in 2015 to 3.76 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 4.3).
Figure 4.3: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = miilion tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Heat
Others
3.1.3. 
 Electricity generation
 
Electricity generation in Cambodia increased at 16.8% per year from 0.20 TWh in 1995 to 
4.40 TWh in 2015. From 1995 to 2000, electricity was 100% generated by oil-powered 
power plants. By 2015, three other types of power plants had contributed in electricity 
generation in Cambodia. Coal-fired power plants have a share of 48.4%, hydro with a 
45.5% share, and ‘others’ with a 0.9% share.


85
3.1.4. 
  CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to increase by 5.4% per year from 
2.02 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 7.60 Mt-C in 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Oil is the largest source of carbon emissions; it will increase from 1.39 Mt-C in 2015 to 
3.55 Mt-C in 2040. Emissions from coal would grow the fastest at 6.8% per year, from 
0.63 Mt-C in 2015 to 3.24 Mt-C in 2040 (Figure 4.5).
In the BAU scenario, to meet the demand for electricity, power generation is projected to 
increase at an average rate of 9% per year between 2015 and 2040. The fastest growth in 
electricity generation will be in ‘others’ (11.7% per year), followed by hydro (9.1% per year) 
and coal (7.5% per year) (Figure 4.4). Generation from oil-fired power plants will decrease 
considerably due to high fuel costs.
Figure 4.4: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
Cambodia Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 4.5: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Million Tons of Carbon
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
3.1.5. 
 Energy indicators
Primary energy intensity had a decreasing trend from US775toe/millionin1995toUS 
442 toe/million in 2015. In the BAU scenario, energy intensity will further decrease to 
US251toe/millionin2040.Thisindicatesthatenergywillbeusedmoreefficientlyineconomicdevelopment.Suchismainlyduetothedominanceofconventionalbiomassuseintheruralareasofthecountry,anditsfuturegrowthwillbeslowerthanGDPgrowth.Primaryenergypercapitahadbeenincreasingfrom0.3toeperpersonin1995to0.5toeperpersonin2015.IntheBAUscenario,energypercapitawillfurtherincreaseto0.68toeperpersonin2040.Thisindicatesthatlivingstandardsofpeopleareimproving,resultinginincreasingenergydemandpercapita.Figure4.6showsvariousindicatorsforenergyconsumption.87CO2perprimaryenergyintheBAUscenarioisprojectedtoincreasefrom0.3metrictonsofcarbonpertoe(t−C/toe)in2015to0.50t−C/toein2040,implyingfastergrowthoffossilfuelsintotalenergyconsumption.However,CO2intensityhadbeenincreasingfrom108t−C/millionUS in 1995 to 127 t-C/million USin2015.Itwilldropto125t−C/millionUS in 2040.
4. 
  Scenario Analysis
4.1.  Alternative Policy Scenario 
The APS consists of scenarios such as the EEC scenario (APS1), improvement of energy 
efficiency in power generation (APS2), and development of renewable energy (APS3). 
The scenarios were individually modelled to determine the impact of each on reduction 
of energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Below are the assumptions in each scenario:
Source: Author’s calculation.
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita
Figure 4.6: Energy and CO2 Indicators 
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990 = 100
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
• 
APS1: focus on EEC on the demand side, such as
- 
energy demand in all sectors to be equal in numbers in 2015 and reduced by 20% 
by the year 2040 relative to the BAU scenario
- 
using efficient motorbikes and hybrid car in road transport
- 
replacing inefficient devices with efficient ones in the commercial and residential 
sectors, such as in cooking, lighting, refrigeration, air conditioning. 
• 
APS2: improvement of energy efficiency in thermal power plants. Energy efficiency of 
coal and fuel oil thermal power plants is assumed to stay constant at 32% until 2040 
in the BAU scenario. In the APS, new coal fired power plants are assumed to have 
thermal efficiencies of 39%.
• 
APS3: Maximum capacity of 5,000 MW for hydro power plants by 2040 is assumed 
in this scenario.
• 
APS5 or APS: combination of APS1 to APS3.
The assumptions in the APS were analysed separately to determine the individual impacts 
of each assumption in APS1, APS2, APS3, and APS5. Figure 4.7 shows the changes 
in primary energy supply in all scenarios. APS1 and APS5 have the largest reduction in 
primary energy supply in 2040 due to the energy efficiency assumptions on the demand 
side. Energy efficiency assumptions in APS1 could reduce primary energy supply in the 
BAU scenario by as much as 12.2 Mtoe or 20%. For APS5, the reduction will be slower, 
amounting to 13 Mtoe or 14.4%.
Figure 4.7: Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply by 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = millions of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
APS5
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
Mtoe
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


89
Figure 4.8 shows the total electricity generation in 2040 in all scenarios. In APS1, due to 
the lower electricity demand, the fossil fuel–fired electricity generation will be lower than 
19% compared to the BAU scenario. In APS2, the share is the same as that of the BAU 
scenario. In APS3, due to the assumption of more renewable energy, the fossil fuel–fired 
generation will only be 14%. In APS5, where all scenarios are combined, the reduction in 
the share of fossil energy–based generation will be significant at almost 32.6% lower than 
the BAU scenario.
Figure 4.9 compares scenarios of CO2 emissions in 2040. In terms of CO2 emission 
reduction, the energy efficiency assumption in APS1 could reduce emissions by 21.2% 
in 2040 compared with the BAU scenario. In APS2, the installation of more efficient 
new power plants is projected to reduce emissions by 16.8%. Higher contributions from 
renewable energy could reduce emissions by 36.9%. All these assumptions combined 
(APS5) could reduce the BAU scenario CO2 emissions by 34.5% in 2040. 
Figure 4.8: Comparison of Scenarios of Electricity Generation by 2040
Source: Author’s calculation.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
TWh
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
APS5
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 4.9: Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions, 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
TWh
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
APS5
4.2.  Energy Saving Potential and CO2 Emissions Reduction
4.2.2. 
 Final energy demand
In the APS, final energy demand is projected to increase at a slower rate of 2.8% (compared 
with 2.8% in the BAU scenario), from 5.93 Mtoe in 2015 to 10.02 Mtoe in 2040 because 
of EEC measures assumed in APS1 in the industry, transport, and ‘others’ (residential and 
commercial) sectors.
The APS final energy demand is 1.8 Mtoe lower than the BAU scenario, indicating that 
the APS includes savings up to 1.8 Mtoe.  The bulk of the savings are expected to occur 
in the ‘others’ sector (0.9 Mtoe), followed by the transport sector (0.5 Mtoe), and the 
industry sector (0.4 Mtoe).
An improvement in end-user technologies and the introduction of energy management 
systems are expected to contribute to the slower growth rate of consumption, particularly 
in the ‘others’ (residential and commercial), industry, and transport sectors (Figure 4.10).


91
4.2.3. 
 Primary energy consumption
In the APS, primary energy consumption is projected to have a slower increase rate of 
2.5% per year, from 7.04 Mtoe in 2015 to 13.04 Mtoe in 2040. The savings could mostly 
be derived from the EEC scenarios on the demand side and development of renewable 
energy technology (APS3).
In the APS, hydro is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.0% compared with 
the 9.1% annual growth in the BAU scenario, followed by coal with a 5.9% annual growth 
rate compared with 6.7% in the BAU scenario, and oil with 3.3% compared with 3.7% in the 
BAU scenario over the same period.
The total savings amount to 2.2 Mtoe, which is equivalent to 21.5% of Cambodia’s primary 
energy consumption in 2040 (Figure 4.11).
Figure 4.10: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU vs APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = millions of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
–14.9%
–15.0%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–15.0%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 4.11: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe - million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
2.19 Mtoe, –14,4%
The reduction in consumption, relative to the BAU scenario, comes from EEC measures 
on the demand side (APS1), more aggressive uptake of energy efficiency in thermal power 
plants (APS2), and adoption of renewable energy (APS3) on the supply side. Accordingly, 
the energy saving potential from gas energy sources would be 85.1%, followed by coal at 
16.3%, oil at 8.4%, and ‘others’ at 3.9% (Figure 4.12).
Figure 4.12: Total Primary Energy Saving Potential by Fuel Type, BAU vs APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–16.3%
–85.1%
–8.4%
–3.9%


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4.2.4. 
 CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions from energy consumption under the BAU scenario are projected to 
increase by 5.4% per year from 2.02 (Mt-C) in 2015 to 7.60 Mt-C in 2040. Under the 
APS, the annual increase in CO2 emissions is projected to be 3.7% per year between 2015 
and 2040, which represents a 34.5% reduction from the BAU scenario.
The CO2 emissions reduction would be mostly derived from EEC measures on the demand 
side (APS1). Improvement of energy efficiency in thermal power plants (APS2) and 
development of renewable energy technologies (APS3) can also contribute significantly 
to CO2 reduction (Figure 4.13).
4.2.5. 
 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions/Nationally 
 
 
 Determined Contributions
CO2 emissions from energy consumption under the BAU scenario are projected to 
increase by 5.4% per year from 7.41 Mt-CO2e in 2015 to 27.8 Mt-CO2e in 2040. Under 
the APS, the annual increase in CO2 emissions is projected to be 3.7% per year between 
2015 and 2040. The APS emission in 2030 will be 3.9 Mt-CO2e lower than BAU, which 
is in line with Cambodia’s INDC.
Figure 4.13: CO2 Emissions by Fuel Type, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = millions of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
2.62 Mtoe, –34.5%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Scenarios
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
AAGR (%) 
2015-40
Reference (BAU)
 7.41 
 12.00 
 14.27 
 17.51 
 21.56 
 27.83 
54357.3%
Energy Efficiency (APS1)
 7.41 
 11.35 
 14.48 
 14.92 
 15.63 
 21.93 
4.4%
Efficient Supply (APS2)
 7.41 
 12.00 
 13.49 
 16.21 
 19.84 
 23.15 
4.7%
Renewable Energy (APS3)
 7.41 
 10.57 
 11.61 
 12.94 
 14.79 
 17.57 
3.5%
APS (Combined APS)
 7.41 
 10.80 
 13.15 
 13.63 
 14.29 
 18.22 
3.7%
Table 4.6: Results of CO2 Emissions by Scenario (Million Tons CO2)
AAGR = average annual growth rate, Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
5.   Key Findings and Policy Implications 
The above analysis on energy saving potential yields the following key findings:
• 
Energy demand in Cambodia is expected to continue to grow significantly, driven by 
robust economic growth, industrialisation, urbanisation, and population growth. EEC 
is the ‘new source’ of energy, and measures reflected in the APS are estimated to have 
significant potential to help meet future demand in a sustainable manner.
• 
Cambodia’s energy intensity will be further reduced due to efficient use of energy.
• 
The annual growth of energy demand in the transport sector is projected to be the 
highest at 3.9% in the BAU scenario and its share will increase continuously from 
23.5% in 2015 to 30.5% in 2040. This shows that the transport sector has a large 
energy saving potential.
• 
Electricity demand is increasing at the highest annual growth rate of 8.4% in the BAU 
scenario and is projected to be a slightly lower at 7.7% in the APS. 
• 
Hydropower plants will be the major power generation source in Cambodia. Their 
share in the total power generation output is increasing slightly from 5.5% in 2015, 
leading up to 45.8% in 2040. 
• 
Coal thermal plants will be the second major source of power generation in Cambodia. 
Its share in the total power generation output would decrease continuously from 
48.4% in 2015 to 34.1% in 2040. 


95
From the findings above and to be able to implement EEC activities in Cambodia 
effectively, the following actions are recommended:
• 
Promotion of the establishment of targets and road map for EEC implementation. The 
targets for EEC in Cambodia should be set up for the short, medium, and long term 
and focused on the building and industry sectors. The long-term plan should be set 
up based on an assessment of energy saving potential for all energy sectors, including 
the residential and commercial sectors, which have a large potential on energy saving 
until 2040. Moreover, some activities can promote EEC in Cambodia. Examples 
are (i) support for the development of professionals in the energy conservation 
field to be responsible persons for energy management and operation, verification 
and monitoring, consultancy, and engineering services provision and the planning, 
supervision, and promotion of the implementation of energy conservation measures; 
(ii) support for the development of institutional capability of agencies/organisations 
in the public and private sectors responsible for the planning, supervision, and 
promotion of the implementation of energy conservation measures; (iii) support for 
the operation of energy-saving companies to alleviate technical and financial risks 
of entrepreneurs wishing to implement energy conservation measures; (iv) public 
relations and provision of knowledge on energy conservation to the general public via 
the teaching/learning process in educational institutions, fostering youth awareness.
• 
Compulsory energy labelling for electrical appliances. The annual growth of electricity 
demand in the residential and commercial sectors is projected to be substantial 
compared to the other sectors. Compulsory energy labelling for electrical appliances 
could be an effective management measure to generate energy savings.
• 
Priority for the development of advanced hydro and coal thermal power technology. Hydro 
and coal thermal power plants will be the major power generation in Cambodia up 
to 2040. Therefore, advanced technologies for both types of resources should be 
prioritised for development from the project design stage.
• 
Priority for renewable energy development. Renewable energy is an important resource 
for energy independence, energy security, and GHG emissions abatement. It is 
necessary to build up the strategy and mechanisms to support renewable energy 
development.
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References 
Electric Authority of Cambodia (EAC) (2017), Report on Power Sector of the Kingdom of 
Cambodia. Phnom Penh: EAC. 
Kingdom of Cambodia (2015), ‘Cambodia’s Intended Nationally Determined 
Contribution’. 
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/submissions/INDC/Published%20
Documents/Cambodia/1/Cambodia’s%20INDC%20to%20the%20UNFCCC.pdf 
(accessed 7 September 2017).
Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy (MIME) (2013), National Policy, Strategy And 
Action Plan On Energy Efficiency In Cambodia. Phnom Penh: MIME.
National Institute of Statistics (NIS) (2009), General Population Census of Cambodia 
2008. National Report on Final Census Results. Phnom Penh, NIS, Ministry of Planning.
World Bank (2017), World Development Index (WDI), Update September 2017. 
Washington, DC: World Bank (accessed 10 October 2017).


97
CHINA COUNTRY REPORT
Yu Hao and Mingyuan Zhao, Center for Energy and Environmental 
Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, China
1.   Background
1.1  Natural Conditions and History
China (officially known as the People’s Republic of China, the PRC) has a land area of 
9.6 million square kilometres (km2) and is situated in eastern Asia on the western shores 
of the Pacific Ocean. China’s continental coastline extends for about 18,000 kilometres, 
and its vast sea surface is studded with more than 5,000 islands. Due to its size, China’s 
climate is diverse, ranging from an unbearable 48ºC in the northwest during summer to an 
equally unbearable –40oC in the far north in winter.
China has more than 5,000 years of history. The PRC was founded on 1 October 1949. 
China has been implementing reforms and opening up its economy for 40 years and 
has established a socialist market economy, thereby charting the course for socialist 
modernisation with Chinese characteristics. 
1.2  Economy and Population
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017 was around US12,225trillion,whichtranslatesintoapercapitaGDPofaroundUS8,848.0 (in 2017 US$ terms). China 
is currently the world’s most populous country, with about 1.39 billion people in 
2017 (National Bureau of Statistics, 2017). To mitigate population growth, China has 
implemented a family planning policy since the 1970s. However, in 2015, the ‘one child’ 
policy ended, and couples that satisfy the conditions can have two children. China has 
been experiencing fast urbanisation at the annual growth rate of about 1% since 1978 
when China’s reform and opening up started. At the end of 2017, around 58.5% of the 
population lived in urban areas.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
1.3  Energy Situation
In terms of energy resources, China is endowed with coal, oil, and gas reserves and 
tremendous hydropower potential. China is the world’s largest coal producer and has the 
third-largest coal reserves, with recoverable reserves of 114.5 billion tons. In 2015, the 
country produced 3.75 billion tons of raw coal. China is still a major crude oil producer, 
with output of 214.6 million tons of crude oil in 2015. However, driven by very fast 
increases in oil demand, China became an oil importer in the 1990s. In 2014, the amount 
of net imported oil reached 328 million tons with a growth rate of 6.4% and a dependence 
level of more than 60%. China is also a large producer and exporter of energy-intensive 
items. In 2015, it produced 2.36 billion tons of cement and 1.12 billion tons of finished 
steel, of which 112 million tons were exported (National Bureau of Statistics and China 
Energy Statistics Yearbook).
China’s per capita energy reserves are considerably lower than those of the world average. 
The per capita average of both coal and hydropower resources is only about 50% of the 
world average, while the per capita average of both oil and natural gas reserves is only 
about one-fifteenth of the world average. The per capita average of arable land is less than 
30% of the world average, which hinders the development of biomass energy.
Since 1990, coal has dominated primary energy consumption, at 60.6%, while oil, natural 
gas, and hydro consumption accounted for 13.6%, 1.5%, and 1.3%, respectively. However, 
biomass consumption represented 23%, which is only lower than that of coal consumption. 
In 2015, coal was still a major fuel, with a higher share of about 66.7%. The share of other 
energy sources increased from 1990 levels to 18.0% for oil, 5.3% for gas, and 3.2% for 
hydro, but the share of biomass decreased to 3.5%. Primary energy consumption in China 
increased at an average annual rate of around 5% from 870.7 million tons of oil equivalent 
(Mtoe) in 1990 to 2,973.3 Mtoe in 2015. Energy intensity (primary energy demand per 
unit of GDP) declined from 1,050 tons of oil equivalent per million US$ in 1990 to 344 
tons of oil equivalent per million US$ in 2015.
Final energy consumption in China increased at a lower average annual rate of 4.4%, from 
664.2 Mtoe in 1990 to 1,905.7 Mtoe in 2015. Coal accounted for 47.9% of final energy 
consumption in 1990 and 36.8% in 2015. In 1990, oil consumption accounted for 12.7% 
of total final energy consumption and had increased rapidly at 7.4% per year between 
1990 and 2015, significantly increasing its share to 25.2% in 2015. Both electricity and 
natural gas consumption grew sharply at 16.0% and 5.5% per year, respectively, between 
1990 and 2015. It makes the shares of electricity and natural gas consumption increase 
from 5.9% and 1.3% in 1990 to 21.9% and 5.5% in 2015. In 2015, the share of electricity 
consumption had almost reached the same as that of oil consumption.


99
Industry is the major energy-consuming sector in China, followed by the residential and 
commercial (‘others’) sectors. The share of industry consumption increased from 36.7% 
in 1990 to 50.7% in 2015. Conversely, the share of energy consumption in the ‘others’ 
sector declined from 51.8% in 1990 to 25.4% in 2015 because of relatively faster growth 
in the industry and transport sectors.
Power in China is mainly generated from coal-fired power plants, whose electricity 
generation accounted for around 71% of the total amount in 1990. By 2015, this share 
increased to 78.2%. The share of hydro was 20.4% in 1990 but declined to 16.4% in 2015. 
Gas and oil, collectively, accounted for about 2.7% of total generation in 2015. The share 
of nuclear power increased to about 2.9% in 2015.
The Chinese government is pushing for the development of a modern energy industry. 
Resource conservation and environmental protection are two basic state policies, giving 
prominence to building a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society in the 
course of its industrialisation and modernisation.
2.   Modelling Assumptions
2.1.  Population and Gross Domestic Product
The model results for China have been developed by the Institute of Energy Economics, 
Japan and were taken from modelling of the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario and the 
Alternative Policy Scenarios (APS).
China’s population increased from 1.135 billion in 1990 to 1.375 billion in 2015. It is 
assumed to increase at an average rate of 0.2% per year in 2015–2040, the projection 
period. The population will peak at 1.450 billion around 2030 and reach 1.428 billion by 
2040.
China’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 10.2% from US$530.6 billion in 1990 
to about US4.913trillionin2013(in2005US terms). In this study, GDP is assumed 
to grow at a slower rate of 6.5% per year from 2015 to 2020 because of the ‘new normal’ 
state of China’s economy, 5.3% per year in 2020–2030, and 4.2% per year in 2030–2040. 
The average annual growth rate of GDP in 2015–2040 is 5.1%. It is calculated to reach 
US31.116trillionby2040.GivenGDPandpopulationassumptions,GDPpercapitainChinaisassumedtoincreasefromaroundUS6,500 per capita in 2015 to US$22,400 
per capita in 2040.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
2.2.  Energy and Climate Change Policies and their Performance
Although China is still a developing country and its GDP per capita is around one-seventh 
that of the United States (according to nominal exchange rate) in 2015, the government 
has set ambitious goals of reducing energy intensity and addressing climate change issues. 
According to the data from relevant official departments, in the last 5 years, China has 
achieved significant energy conservation and remarkable progress in environmental 
protection and climate change mitigation.
China’s Outline of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) for the National Economic and 
Social Development stipulates that, by 2020, energy consumption per unit of GDP will 
drop by 15% from 2016. To achieve this goal, the government has already implemented 
administrative, market-based, and legal measures to promote energy conservation. 
Energy intensity reduction goals are assigned to provincial governments and progress is 
announced publicly every year. During the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), energy 
consumption grew at the rate of 3.6% and GDP increased at the rate of 7.8%. Accordingly, 
energy intensity decreased by 18.2%, successfully achieving the target of 16%. Energy 
consumption per unit of GDP in 2015 decreased by 5.6% compared with that of 2014.
In addition to energy intensity targets, controlling the total amount of energy consumption 
is proposed. According to the Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014–2020), 
China’s coal consumption (primary energy consumption) would be controlled at 2,940 
Mtoe in 2020 and primary energy consumption would be controlled at 3,362 Mtoe in 
2020. According to the 13th Five-Year Plan of Energy Development, by 2020, the ratio 
of coal consumption to total energy consumption should be lowered to at most 60%, and 
natural gas consumption should account for 10% of the total amount. In addition, the 
amount of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million.
China announced its goal of reducing CO2 emissions per GDP (carbon intensity) by 
40%–45% by 2020 and 60%–65% by 2030 from the 2005 level. Apart from the carbon 
intensity target, China also declared that the CO2 emissions will reach their peak at around 
2030. To meet the target, China has implemented ambitious energy efficiency and fuel-
switching policies. For instance, the government proclaimed its goal of cultivating 40 
million hectares of forested land to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In 2014, China’s 
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP dropped by 9.1% compared to the level of 2013. 


101
China also exerted great effort to develop non-fossil fuels and accelerate the development 
of renewable energy. The National People’s Congress passed the Renewable Energy 
Development Law of China in 2005 to support renewable energy development in the 
country. The government also announced the target of increasing the share of non-fossil 
energy to about 15% by 2020 (measured in coal-equivalent) and about 20% in 2030. 
Subsidisation policies have also been developed to encourage the development of wind 
power, solar photovoltaic (PV), and biomass. In 2015, China invested US$102.9 billion 
on renewable energy, accounting for 36% of the total amount in the world. By the end of 
2015, power generation capacity had reached 1,508 gigawatts (GW). Within this, the 
capacity of hydropower, which ranked first globally, reached 319 GW, increasing at a 
growth rate of 4.9%; the capacity of nuclear power plants was 26.08 GW; on-grid wind 
power capacity, which was the largest in the world, amounted to 129.34 GW, increasing 
33.5% year on year; on-grid solar power reached 43.18 GW, growing 73.7% from a year 
earlier. The installed electricity capacity of non-fossil fuel such as hydro, nuclear, wind, 
and solar energy – in 2015 took up 34.3% of the whole, 1.5% higher than that of 2014. 
The electricity generated from non-fossil fuels accounted for 25.1% of the total on-grid 
electricity in 2015. China’s current installed capacity, under-construction capacity, and 
generation of hydropower, the accumulative installed capacity of PV solar power, and 
the capacity of under-construction nuclear power all rank first in the world, which have 
positively contributed to addressing the problem of global climate change.
After the evaluation in 2015, China phased out the backward production capacity in the 
following industries: small thermal power units (4.23 GW), cement (50 million tons), 
and steel (30 million tons). To consume the surplus production capacity, from 2016 no 
new coal mine projects will be approved for 3 years, and steel production capacity will 
decrease by between 100 million and 150 million tons over 5 years.
The 2015 scenario analyses set five APSs: APS1 – energy efficiency and conservation 
(EEC) in the final consumption sectors; APS2 – EEC in thermal efficiency in coal, oil- 
and gas-fired power generation; APS3 – increase of hydro, geothermal, and new and 
renewable energy; APS4 – increase in nuclear energy; APS5 – implement APS1 to APS4. 
If not specifically declared, all results shown in this chapter under the APS refer to APS5.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Total Final Energy Consumption
Between 2015 and 2040, China’s final energy consumption is projected to grow slowly, 
reflecting lower assumed economic and population growth. 
Business-As-Usual Scenario
Final energy consumption is projected to increase at an average rate of 1.3% per year 
between 2015 and 2040. Transport sector consumption is projected to grow the fastest, 
increasing by 2.7% a year, followed by the non-energy sector of 1.9%. Energy consumption 
in the industry sector is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.2%. Figure 5.1 
shows China’s final energy consumption by sector under the BAU scenario.
Amongst energy sources, natural gas consumption in the BAU scenario, which is 
projected to exhibit the fastest growth, will increase by 5.2% per year, from 158.5 Mtoe in 
2015 to 556.5 Mtoe in 2040. Though coal is still a large portion in the whole final energy 
consumption, it is projected to increase at such a lower growth rate, -0.1% per year, 
achieving 1938.6 Mtoe in 2040, compared with -0.7% per year over the last 2 decades. 
Consumption of electricity and heat is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 
2.3% and 0.8%, respectively, over the same period, achieving 737.6 Mtoe and 110.0 Mtoe 
in 2040. Oil is projected to grow by 1.9% annually to around 853.4 Mtoe in 2040. Figure 
5.2 shows China’s final energy consumption by fuel type under the BAU scenario.
Figure 5.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual,  Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Others
Transport
Industry
Non-energy
654
781
1,906
2,134
2,421
2,602


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Alternative Policy Scenario 
In the APS, final energy consumption is projected to increase by 0.6% per year, from 
2,973.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 3,494.9 Mtoe in 2040, as a result of EEC programmes. An 
improvement in end-use technologies and the introduction of energy management 
systems are expected to contribute to slower energy growth in all sectors, particularly 
in the commercial, residential, and transport sectors. Figure 5.3 shows the final energy 
consumption in China in 2015 and 2040 in both the BAU scenario and the APS.
Figure 5.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
654
781
1,906
   2,134
2,421
2,602
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Heat
Others
Figure 5.3: Final Energy Consumption, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.  Primary Energy Supply
Primary energy supply in China is projected to grow at a slower pace than in the past years. 
Growth in primary energy supply is also expected to be slightly slower than final energy 
consumption because of improved efficiency in the energy transformation sector.
Business-As-Usual Scenario
In  the BAU scenario, China’s primary energy supply is projected to increase at an average 
annual rate of 1.2% per year to 4,014.9 Mtoe in 2040. Coal will still constitute the largest 
share in total primary energy, but its growth is expected to be slower and decreasing 
by -0.1% a year on average. Consequently, the share of coal in total primary energy is 
projected to decline from 66.7% in 2015 to 48.3% in 2040.
Nuclear energy is projected to exhibit the fastest growth between 2015 and 2040, 
increasing at an annual average rate of 7.2%, followed by natural gas at 5.2%. Oil and hydro 
are projected to grow at lower rates of 1.9% and 1.1% per year, respectively. The share of 
natural gas is projected to increase from 5.3% in 2015 to 13.9% in 2040, whereas the share 
of nuclear will increase from 1.5% to 6.3%. The share of oil is projected to increase from 
18% in 2015 to 21.3% in 2040, and hydro is projected to decrease from 3.2% in 2015 to 
3.1% in 2040. Figure 5.4 shows China’s primary energy supply by energy type under the 
BAU scenario.
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Figure 5.4: Primary Energy Supply by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040)
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
871
1,130
2,973
3,294
3,735
4,015
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


105
Alternative Policy Scenario 
In the APS, primary energy consumption is projected to increase by 0.6% per year between 
2015 and 2040, reaching 3,494.9 Mtoe by 2040. The growth in primary energy supply 
is projected to be slower under the APS than the BAU scenario (Figure 5.5). Coal is 
projected to decrease by -1.1% a year, oil by 1.4% a year, and natural gas by 4.1% a year. For 
nuclear, the average annual growth rate will be higher than the BAU scenario, increasing 
by 8.7% a year between 2015 and 2040. The growth rate of hydro in the APS is expected 
to be higher than that of the BAU scenario, increasing by 1.3% per year. The consumption 
mitigated in the APS is achieved through EEC measures on the demand side.
3.3.  Projected Energy Savings
The implementation of EEC goals and action plans in China could reduce primary energy 
supply in 2040 by about 267.3 Mtoe under the APS relative to the BAU scenario. In 
the APS, China’s primary energy demand is around 10.3% lower than the BAU scenario 
(Figure 5.6).
In terms of final energy consumption, there are estimated savings of 110.6 Mtoe in the 
industry sector, 71.5 Mtoe in the transport sector, and 85 Mtoe in the ‘others’ sector in 
2040 under the APS.
Figure 5.5: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
–11.9%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–22.5%
–21.8%
20.8%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 5.6: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
3.4.  CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption
CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to increase by 0.6% per year, from 
2,545.4 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 2930.9 Mt-C in 2040, under the BAU 
scenario. This percentage increase is lower than that in primary energy supply (1.3%) over 
the same period, indicating improved emissions intensity in China’s economy.
In the APS, the annual increase in CO2 emissions between 2015 and 2040 is projected 
to be -0.4%. This rate is also lower than the average annual growth rate in primary energy 
supply over the same period. The difference between the APS and the BAU scenario CO2 
emissions growth rates indicates that the energy-saving goals and action plans of China 
are effective in reducing CO2 emissions (Figure 5.7).


107
3.5.  Power Generation
Power generation in China is projected to grow more slowly between 2015 and 2040 than 
in the last decade. 
Business-As-Usual Scenario
In the BAU scenario, power generation in China is projected to grow at a slower pace, 
by 2.5% per year from 5,844.2 terawatt-hour (TWh) in 2015 to 10,054.5 TWh in 2040 
(Figure 5.8).
The share of coal power under the BAU scenario is projected to experience a decreasing 
trend from 70.3% in 2015 to 48.6% in 2040. Conversely, the share of natural gas and 
nuclear are both projected to grow because of cleanness, from 2.5% and 2.9% in 2015 to 
11.3% and 9.6% in 2040, respectively. The share of oil is projected to decrease slightly. 
In addition, other methods of power generation are projected to be increasing. The fast 
development of PV power generation in China is a typical example reflecting the country’s 
clean power generation tendency. China’s thermal efficiency by fuel under the BAU 
scenario is projected to increase between 2015 and 2040 (Figure 5.9).
Figure 5.7: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 5.8: Power Generation, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = business as usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Natura Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
621
1,356
5,844
6,891
8,638
10,054
Figure 5.9: Thermal Efficiency by Fuel, BAU 
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
%
%
1990
2000
2013
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
          Natural Gas
38.9
38.9
38.9
39.8
42.2
44.5
46.8
49.1
51.4
          Oil
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.6
36.0
36.3
36.7
37.0
37.4
          Coal
28.8
32.0
38.0
38.1
38.2
38.4
38.6
38.8
38.9


109
Alternative Policy Scenario
In the APS, total power generation will increase by 2.2% per year between 2015 and 
2040. By 2040, total power generation output is projected to reach 10,054.5 TWh. 
Except for coal-fired power, oil power, and natural gas power, the annual growth rate per 
year between 2015 and 2040 of all other fuels under the APS is projected to grow faster 
than in the BAU scenario. In 2040, nuclear power, hydro power, geothermal power, and 
‘others’ are projected to increase under the APS by 7.2%, 1.1%, 5.1%, 7.0% in 2015–2040, 
respectively.
3.6.  Energy Intensity
According to the assumed economic and population data, along with the projected 
energy information of China, energy intensity defined as total primary energy supply/GDP 
(TPES/GDP) and energy per capita are accounted and illustrated in Figure 5.10, along 
with other vital energy indicators under the BAU scenario. From 1990 to 2015, China’s 
energy intensity experienced a remarkable drop through efforts on energy efficiency. In 
2040, it is projected to drop to about 257 toe per million (in 2005 US$ terms). With 
improved living standards in China, energy per capita under the BAU scenario is projected 
to reach 3.18 toe per person in 2040. Compared with the energy intensity in the BAU 
scenario, that in the APS is projected to show a faster decreasing rate of 3.6% from 2015 
to 2040.
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Figure 5.10: Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 = 100
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
For China, which is the world’s largest developing country, eliminating poverty and 
improving the quality of life have always been paramount tasks. In recent years, China has 
witnessed fast growth in its economy, but the urbanisation rate is still low, with 58.5% in 
2017. 
On the other hand, being the world’s biggest energy consumer and CO2 emitter, China 
also faces great pressure to save energy and reduce CO2. Since the1990s, China has 
made great efforts and set ambitious targets on energy conservation and climate change 
mitigation. During the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summits, China and the 
United States issued a joint announcement on climate change, in which China vowed 
to decrease CO2 emissions from its peak and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in 
primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030. In April 2016, China signed the 
Paris Agreement, which includes the above commitments in addition to the provision 
that China cut its carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 60%–65% by 2030 from the 2005 
levels. In the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020), China plans to control the total energy 
consumption within 41 billion tons of standard coal and decrease its CO2 emissions per 
unit of GDP by 18% compared with 2015 levels.
As China’s GDP keeps growing, albeit at a slower pace compared with that of the last 
20 years, its energy demand and CO2 emissions will increase in the foreseeable future 
accordingly. However, energy intensity (energy demand per unit of GDP) and emissions 
intensity (CO2 emissions per unit of GDP) are required to decrease considering China’s 
targets. According to the model results, if sound energy efficiency and conservation 
policies could be implemented, China could reduce its total primary energy consumption 
by around 13.0% and CO2 emissions by about 21.6% by 2040. 
Coal consumption has decreased since 2014; it decreased by 3.7% in 2015. It is projected 
to be cut by 22.5% in the APS compared with the BAU scenario. To improve urban air 
quality, Chinese metropolises, such as Beijing and Shanghai, have shown great ambitions 
in controlling the use of coal, so the relatively low growth rate of coal consumption may 
persist in the following years. Therefore, clean and low-carbon energies are encouraged 
to develop, especially renewable and nuclear energy in the power generation sector. To 
optimise the energy structure, policies such as on energy and carbon taxes should be 
carried out, to limit the energy- and pollution-intensive industries. On the other hand, 
more market-based measures, for instance, electricity market reform, energy pricing 
reform, and green certificate trade, are needed to make energy more market-oriented and 
to motivate more enterprises to act.


111
The energy efficiency improvement in APS5 has the largest potential to reduce CO2 
emissions. Based on our calculation of 2015 scenario, within the APS5, the industry 
sector can potentially reduce energy consumption by 10.9% based on the APS5 results. 
Measures such as the closure of small and inefficient power plants, coal mines, and 
small energy-intensive plants in industries like cement and steel, and stricter approval 
requirements for energy-intensive industries are necessarily implemented. Moreover, 
the change in industrial structure (heavy to light industries or industry to services) is also 
needed. Furthermore, since China has entered the ‘new normal’ state of economy, in 
which economic growth rate would be moderately high, and the GDP of the tertiary sector 
has accounted for half of the total amount, in the long run, it is more important to enhance 
energy efficiency in the residential, commercial, and transport sectors for energy saving 
and CO2 reduction. Moreover, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by President Xi 
in 2013 is also a good chance to further save energy and reduce emissions. The countries 
along the route of BRI contribute to 50% of global energy consumption and more than 
60% of global carbon emissions. Thus, establishing a BRI low-carbon community is greatly 
significant to the improvement of energy structure and emissions reduction in both China 
and the world.
Reference
National Bureau of Statistics (2017), China Statistical Yearbook 2017 (Chinese-English 
Edition). Beijing: China Statistics Press.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
INDIA COUNTRY REPORT
a,b
1.   Country Brief
India, also called the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia and occupies an area 
of around 3.1 million square kilometres. It is the seventh-largest country by area, the 
second-most populous country (with over 1.2 billion people), and the most populous 
democracy in the world. It is bounded by the Indian Ocean in the south, the Arabian 
Sea in the southwest, and the Bay of Bengal in the southeast. It shares land borders with 
Pakistan to the west; China, Nepal, and Bhutan to the northeast; and Bangladesh and 
Myanmar to the east. 
Its climate comprises a wide range of weather conditions across a vast geographic scale and 
varied topography, making generalisations difficult. Based on the Köppen system, India 
hosts six major climatic subtypes, ranging from arid desert in the west, alpine tundra and 
glaciers in the north, and humid tropical regions supporting rainforests in the southwest 
and the island territories. Many regions have starkly different microclimates.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2018), India’s economy in 2017 was 
nominally worth US$2.611 trillion. It is the sixth-largest economy by market exchange 
rate, and the third-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) at US$9.459 trillion. With its 
average annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.8% over the past 2 decades 
and reaching 6.1% in 2011–2012, India is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. 
However, the country ranks 140th in the world in nominal GDP per capita and 129th in 
GDP per capita at PPP. Despite economic growth during recent decades, India continues 
to face socio-economic challenges, such as poverty and modern energy access. 
CHAPTER 6
Atul Kumar and Michael O. Dioha, TERI School of Advanced Studies, 
India  
Lu Zheng, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
a 
Based on model run and broad assumptions by The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, with inputs provided by 
TERI School of Advanced Studies. 
b 
Unless otherwise specified, the information in figures come from the results of the model run. 


113
2.   Energy Situation
Energy systems in India have evolved over the last 6 decades along with the country’s 
economic development, supporting the aspiration of 1.2 billion people within the 
framework of democratic polity, a globally integrated economy, and an environmentally 
sensitive regime. The ever-increasing demand of energy has posed tremendous pressure 
on its limited resources and has necessitated optimum use of its resources. India has 
pursued a reformed development agenda since 1991. Significant effort has gone into 
improving energy availability to support the country’s development initiatives. 
India is fuelled by primary (coal and lignite, natural gas), secondary (electricity and 
petroleum products), and renewable energy sources. India’s energy mix is dominated by 
coal. Coal forms the largest source of primary energy in India, accounting for around 50% 
of the total primary energy supply (GoI, 2017). Coal production has witnessed an upward 
trend. It was about 430.83 million tons (MTs) in 2006–2007, and increased to 639.23 
MTs in 2015–2016 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.02%. Production of 
crude petroleum increased from 33.99 MTs in 2006–2007 to 36.95 MTs in 2015–2016, 
a CAGR of about 0.84%. 
Crude oil imports increased by 10 MT, although the value of imports fell for the second 
year in a row. The total share of imported crude oil in India’s total supply was 84.3% in 
2015/16. India’s refining capacity increased to 230 MT per annum (MMTPA) owing to 
the commissioning of the Paradip refinery in Odisha, with a capacity of 15 MMTPA. The 
production of natural gas declined for the fifth year in a row to 32.2 billion cubic metres 
in 2015/16. Imports of liquefied natural gas grew to 19.95 MT in 2015/16. Import 
dependency of natural gas stands at 46%.
As of 31 January 2017, the total installed capacity of the power sector in India was 330 
gigwatts (GW), with thermal power having the largest share of 67% in total installed 
capacity (Figure 6.1).
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The all-India gross electricity generation from utilities, excluding that from captive 
generating plants, was 670,654 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2006–2007. It rose to 
1,116,850 GWh in 2014–2015 (CSO, 2017). During 2015–2016, the production of 
electricity from utilities has further increased to 1,167,584 GWh, registering an annual 
growth rate of about 4.54%. Total electricity generation in the country from utilities and 
non-utilities in 2015–2016 was 1,335,956 GWh. Out of the total electricity generated 
through utilities, 943,013 GWh was generated from thermal, 121,377 GWh was from 
hydro, and 37,414 GWh was generated from nuclear sources. Total output from non-
utilities was 168,372 GWh.
As of June 2017, the cumulative installed capacity from renewable sources was 58.3 
GW in India, which was 17% of the total installed capacity of 330 GW. Currently, India 
ranks sixth worldwide in  renewable energy capacity (REN21, 2017). The current installed 
nuclear power capacity of the country is 5,780 MW, and it is expected to increase to 
10,080 MW by 2019. India is ranked 12th in terms of power generation from nuclear 
sources as per data published in May 2015 by the Power Reactor Information System  of 
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). India has signed nuclear agreements with 
the United States (US), France, Russia, Namibia, Mongolia, Republic of Korea, Argentine 
Republic, United Kingdom, Republic of Kazakhstan, Canada, Sri Lanka, and Australia 
(PIB, 2015). India’s installed capacity of hydro was 44,189.43 MW as of 31 January 2017 
(CEA, 2017b). Of the all-India target of 10,897 MW under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, 
3,311.02 MW of hydro capacity has been achieved (as of August 2015).
Figure 6.1: Grid Power Sources (GW) and their Percentage Shares up to June 2017
GW = gigawatt.
Sources: CEA (2017a), MNRE (2017).
Solar 13.1 GW (22%)
Wind 32.5 GW (56%)
Small Hydro 4.4 GW (8%)
Bio Power 8.2 GW (14%)
Waste-to-power 0.1 GW (0.2%)
Thermal
Nuclear
Large Hydro
Renewable
220,6 GW 
(67%)
44,6 GW 
(14%)
6,8 GW 
(2%)
58,3 GW 
(17%)


115
India Country Report
India’s final energy consumption has increased more than seven times since 1980, with 
the industry sector consuming the largest amount of energy. In 2015–2016, the industry 
sector accounted for about 52% of final energy consumption. This is followed by the 
transport sector (24%), and then the residential and commercial sectors (17%). The 
agriculture sector accounts for the least share of final commercial energy demand during 
the same period. 
3.   Modelling Assumptions
India’s GDP is assumed to grow from US$ 2.29 trillion of 2010 in 2015 to around US$ 
11.49 trillion of 2010 in 2040, equivalent to 6.5% and 6.7% average annual growth rates 
in 2015 and 2040, respectively. The population is assumed to grow at an average annual 
rate of 0.9% from 1.31 billion persons in 2015 to around 1.61 billion persons in 2040.  
Regarding future electricity supply, coal share in electricity generation will continue to 
be the largest. Meanwhile, nuclear power plants and others, especially wind and solar, 
are projected to increase to 2040. On the other hand, the shares of oil and hydro are 
expected to decrease. 
The implementation of energy efficiency programmes in power generation and energy 
end-use sectors are expected to attain India’s energy-saving goals. Improvements in 
highly energy-intensive industries and in inefficient small plants are some of the measures 
to ensure energy savings in the industry sector. In the residential and commercial sectors, 
significant savings can be induced through efficient end-use technologies and energy 
management systems. In the transport sector, improved vehicle fuel economy and more 
effective traffic management are important measures to improve efficiency. 
4. 
  Outlook Results
4.1.  Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario
This section describes the current trend of energy production and utilisation in the country, 
without any policy intervention, aimed at reducing energy demand or CO2 emissions.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4.1.1. 
 Total final energy consumption
Under the BAU scenario, with assumed strong economic growth and a rising population, 
India’s final energy demand is projected to increase at an average rate of 4.1% per year, from 
578 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2015 to 1,560 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 6.2). The 
strong growth is projected to occur in the transport and the industry sectors, increasing 
at 5.1% a year between 2015 and 2040. Strong growth is also expected in non-energy 
consumption (4.8% a year). Due to the large share of non-commercial energy in the final 
energy consumption, the growth rate of the ‘others’ sector that includes residential and 
commercial sectors is projected to be modest at 2.3% per year. However, in the residential 
and commercial sectors, the consumption of commercial energy, especially electricity, 
will increase rapidly.
The share of ‘others’ which is the largest at 43% in 2015, will drop to 28.3% in 2040. 
Meanwhile, the share of industry will increase to 43.1% in 2040 from 33.7% in 2015, and 
that of transport will reach 19% in 2040, from 14.9% in 2015.
In the final energy consumption by source, natural gas will have the fastest growth, 
increasing by 6.1% per year over the period 2015–2040 (Figure 6.3). Coal demand will 
have the second highest increase of 5.8% a year, followed by electricity (5.4% per year) 
and then oil (4.7% per year).
Figure 6.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
 BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Others
Transportation
Industry
Non-energy
243
315
578
720
1,082
1,560


117
Figure 6.3: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
243
315
1,082
1,560
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Others
578
720
4.1.2. 
 Primary energy supply
Under the BAU scenario, India’s primary energy supply will increase at an average annual 
rate of 4.1% to 2,312 Mtoe in 2040 from 851 Mtoe in 2015. Coal demand, driven by the 
demand of power generation, will grow at 5% per year and reach 1,290 Mtoe in 2040, from 
379 Mtoe in 2015, maintaining the largest share at 56% in 2040 (45% in 2015). Due to 
rapid motorisation, oil will increase to 592 Mtoe and will have the second-largest share 
at 26% in 2040. The average annual growth rate for oil demand in 2015–2040 would be 
4.3%. Natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 5.8% per year between 2015 
and 2040. Its share will be 7.6% in 2040, 2.5 percentage points up from 5.1% in 2015. 
Figure 6.4 shows the projected primary energy supply in India from 1990 to 2040 under 
the BAU scenario.
Within ‘others’, solar and wind will increase significantly. However, due to the negative 
growth of non-commercial biomass, which has the largest portion, ‘others’ is projected to 
decrease by 0.5% a year through to 2040. Its share will drop to 7.7% from 23.4% in 2015.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4.1.3. 
 Power generation
In 2015, power generation in India was 1,383 terawatt-hours (TWh). Under the BAU 
scenario, it will be increasing at the rate of 5.1% per year to 4,809 TWh in 2040. Coal will 
continue to dominate India’s power generation mix; however, the share will slightly drop 
from 75.3% in 2015 to 74.8% in 2040. Hydro’s share in India’s power generation mix will 
decline from 10% in 2015 to 6.7% in 2040, and oil’s share will decline from 1.7% in 2015 
to 0% in 2040. In contrast, the share of nuclear power will increase from 2.7% to 3.9%, 
and ‘others’, including wind and solar power, will increase from 5.4% to 9.8%. The share 
of natural gas will be 4.7% in 2040, and the average growth rate during 2015–2040 will be 
5% per year. Figure 6.5 shows the projected power generation in India from 1990 to 2040 
under the BAU scenario.
Figure 6.4: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
306
441
851
1,069
1,624
2,312
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Others


119
Figure 6.5: Electricity Generation, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWH = terawatt-hour.
Source: Model results.
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
293
570
1,383
1,926
3,255
4,809
4.1.4. 
 CO2 emissions
In 2015, CO2 emissions from India’s energy sector were 575 million tons of carbon (Mt-
C). Under the BAU scenario, CO2 emissions will be increasing at an annual rate of 4.9% 
to 1,894 Mt-C in 2040. Coal is the main source of CO2 emissions in India. CO2 emissions 
from coal will rise at an annual rate of 5% from 409 Mt-C in 2015 to about 1,393 Mt-C in 
2040. CO2 emissions from oil will increase by 4.4% annually, from 151 Mt-C in 2015 to 
441 Mt-C in 2040, while emissions from natural gas will increase at a rate of 5.6% from 
15 Mt-C to 59 Mt-C during the same period. In 2040, coal will account for around 73.5% 
of total energy CO2 emissions, followed by oil with a share of 23.3%; the remaining 3.2% 
comes from natural gas. Figure 6.6 shows the projected energy-related CO2 emissions in 
India from 1990 to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
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4.2.  Energy Saving and CO2 Reduction Potential
This section describes the energy saving and CO2 mitigation potential of different energy 
policies. Five alternative policy scenarios (APS) are considered and have been tagged as 
APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and APS5. APS1 is a scenario of improved efficiency in final 
energy demand. APS2 deals with more efficient thermal power generation. APS3 assumes 
a high contribution of renewable energy to total supply. APS4 involves the use of nuclear 
energy in the total supply, and APS5 is a combined effect of APS1, APS2, APS3, and 
APS4.
4.2.1  Final energy demand 
Total final energy consumption by 2040 in APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and APS5 will be 
1400, 1560, 1560, 3121, and 1400 Mtoe, respectively. This implies that only APS1 and 
APS5 can potentially reduce energy demand. (Figure 6.7). It may be observed that the 
final energy demand of APS2 and APS3 are the same with the BAU scenario.
Figure 6.6: CO2 Emissions under BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Model results.
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Million Tons of Carbon
148
245
575
752
1,252
1,894


121
Figure 6.7: Final Energy Consumption under APSs
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
Others
Transport
Industry
Non-energy
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Mtoe
Under APS5, final energy demand is projected to decrease by 10.3% in 2040 compared to 
the BAU scenario. The reduction in energy demand is expected to occur across all end-
use sectors, reflecting improvements in end-use technologies and the introduction of 
energy management systems (Figure 6.8).
 
In 2040, under APS5 relative to the BAU scenario, are estimated savings of 82 Mtoe 
(12.2%) in the industry sector, 40 Mtoe (13.4%) in the transport sector, and 38 Mtoe 
(8.5%) in the ‘others’ sector.
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4.2.2  Primary energy demand
By 2040, primary energy demand in APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and APS5 will be 2057, 
2245, 2276, 2115, and 1973 Mtoe, respectively (Figure 6.9). The results indicate that 
primary energy supply in 2040 will reduce in APS1, APS2, APS3, and APS5 compared to 
the BAU scenario. Analysis shows that primary energy demand in APS4 will be higher than 
the BAU scenario.
Figure 6.8: Final Energy Consumption, BAU vs APS5 (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS5
Figure 6.9: Primary Energy Supply by Sectors, BAU vs APS5
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
Others
Transport
Industry
Non-energy
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Mtoe


123
Under APS5 relative to the BAU scenario, India’s primary energy demand is projected to 
decrease by 339 Mtoe or 14.7% (Figure 6.10).
Figure 6.10: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU vs APS5 (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
In APS5 in 2040 (Figure 6.11), coal consumption will decrease by 308 Mtoe or 23.9% 
while oil demand will drop by 66 Mtoe or 11.1%. The demand for natural gas is seen to 
fall by 26 Mtoe (14.8%). However, the demand for ‘others’, driven by strong demand for 
renewables (wind and solar), is observed to rise by 59.4% or 61 Mtoe.
Figure 6.11: Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU vs APS5 (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
–23.9%
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS5
–14.8%
–11.1%
24.0%
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In APS5, CO2 emissions in 2040 will be 1,489 Mt-C, 21% lower than in the BAU scenario. 
Less demand of coal in final demand and in power generation and of oil in the transport 
sector will contribute most to reduced CO2 emissions. Emissions from coal, oil, and 
natural gas in 2040 will decrease by 333 (24% reduction), 55.3 (13% reduction), and 16.7 
(28% reduction) Mt-C compared to the BAU scenario. Figure 6.13 shows CO2 emissions 
in 2040 under the BAU scenario versus APS5 in this energy outlook.
4.2.3. 
 CO2 emissions from energy consumption
By 2040, CO2 emissions in APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and APS5 will be 1646, 1824, 1807, 
1874, and 1489 Mt-C, respectively, compared to 1,984 Mt-C in the BAU scenario. The 
results indicate that CO2 emissions in 2040 will decrease by 405 Mt-C in APS5 compared 
to the BAU scenario (Figure 6.12).
Figure 6.12: CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU vs APSs
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Model results.
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Million Tons of Carbon
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal


125
Figure 6.13: CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, 
BAU and APS5 (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Model results.
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS5
405Mt-C,-21.4%
4.2.4. 
 Implications
• 
Energy security and access to energy are key challenges to India. Enhanced domestic 
production of energy is necessary to address these challenges. 
• 
Hydrocarbons, particularly coal and oil, will continue to dominate the energy mix in 
both the BAU scenario and the APS. Use of domestic coal to secure supply as well as 
more efficient coal technologies such as ultra-supercritical, etc. would be necessary. 
In the long and medium terms, research and development on cleaner energy 
development will play a key role.
• 
Natural gas can play an important role in energy supply and environment issues. 
To fully utilise the increasing global natural gas production, the infrastructure for 
importation, domestic transportation, and utilisation needs to be enhanced.
• 
The Government of India announced ambitious targets for renewable energy, but the 
cost and infrastructure will be the bottlenecks. Developing domestic manufacturing 
capacity can play an important role.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
• 
Energy efficiency and demand-side management are important. New power plants, 
new factories, new buildings, new appliances, and new cars should be more efficient. 
The Minimum Energy Performance Standard and mandatory energy labels should be 
expanded to more equipment.
o 
The power sector has huge potential savings. Advance technologies for power 
generation should be used as much as possible.  
o 
Industry will account for 43% of the incremental energy use to 2040; energy 
efficiency programmes should be focused on this sector. Broadening the scope 
of the Perform, Achieve, Trade scheme will be an important way to achieve this. 
o 
Growth of energy consumption in the transport sector should be curtailed.
o 
Losses in electricity distribution should be minimised by using better technologies. 
 
• 
Rationalising energy prices across fuels and sectors is necessary. 
• 
In its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), India pledged to reduce the 
emissions intensity of its GDP by 33% to 35% by 2030 from the 2005 level. This can 
be achieved between APS2 to APS5. This implies that India is on course to achieve 
its NDC and make more climate commitments in the future when significant progress 
has been made towards achieving the NDC.


127
References
CEA (2014), All-India Electricity Statistics: General Review 2014. New Delhi: Central 
Electricity Authority, Government of India.
CEA (2017a), ‘Power Sector June 2017’, http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/
executivesummary/2017/exe_summary-06.pdf (accessed 22 February 2018).
CEA (2017b), ‘Power Sector Jan 2017’, http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/
executivesummary/2017/exe_summary-01.pdf (accessed 24 February 2018).
CSO 
(2017), 
‘Energy 
Statistics,’ 
http://www.mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/
publication_reports/Energy_Statistics_2017r.pdf.pdf (accessed 20 February 2018).
GoI (2017), ‘Coal Directory of India 2015-16: Coal Statistics,’ http://www.coalcontroller.
gov.in/writereaddata/files/Coal Directory of India 2015-16.pdf (accessed 1 March 
2018).
IMF (2018), ‘World Economic Outlook Database – Report for Selected Countries and 
Subjects,’ 
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/weorept.
aspx?pr.x=48&pr.y=6&sy=2017&ey=2018&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1
&c=534&s=NGDPD%2CPPPGDP%2CNGDPDPC%2CPPPPC&grp=0&a= (accessed 26 
May 2018).
MNRE (2017), ‘Initiatives and Achievements’, http://mnre.gov.in/mission-and-
vision-2/achievements (accessed 24 February 2018). 
PIB (2015), ‘India Ranks at 12th Position in Terms of Power Generation from Nuclear 
Source as per data Published in May 2015 by PRIS of IAEA,’ http://pib.nic.in/newsite/
PrintRelease.aspx?relid=123553 (accessed 24 February 2018).
REN21 (2017), Renewables 2017: Global Status Report, Paris: REN21 Secretariat.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
INDONESIA COUNTRY REPORT 
Cecilya Laksmiwati Malik, Energy Policy Planning Expert 
(Independent Consultant), Indonesia
1.   Background
Indonesia is the largest archipelagic state in Southeast Asia comprising 17,504 islands 
scattered over both sides of the equator. The five largest islands are Java, Sumatra, 
Kalimantan (the Indonesian part of Borneo), New Guinea (shared with Papua New 
Guinea), and Sulawesi. The country shares land borders with Papua New Guinea, Timor-
Leste, and Malaysia. Other neighbouring countries include Singapore, the Philippines, 
Australia, and the Indian territories of Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Indonesia covers an area of 1.913 million square kilometres and is the world’s 16th largest 
country in terms of land area. The 2010 population census showed that Indonesia’s 
population reached 238 million people with an average population density of 124 people 
per square kilometre. It increased to 258 million people in 2015 and, by the end of 2016, 
reached 261 million people (World Bank, 2017).
Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) was US$988 billion (constant 2010 US$) in 
2015, increasing at an average rate of 4.9% from 2014. This growth rate was the lowest 
experienced by the country since 2010. In 2016, real GDP increased slightly faster at 
5.02%, reaching US$1,038 billion (constant 2010 US$). From 1990, GDP grew at an 
average rate of 4.7% per year to 2015. GDP per capita in 2015 was almost US$4,000 
(constant 2010 US)whileitwasonlyUS1,700 in 1990 (constant 2010 US$).
Indonesia is richly endowed with natural resources. The country's vast oil and gas reserves 
have made Indonesia a significant player in the international oil and gas industry. As of 
January 2017, its crude oil proven reserves were 3.17 billion barrels while natural gas 
proven reserves were 100.4 trillion cubic feet (TCF) or 2.8 trillion cubic metres (TCM) 
(Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, 2017). Indonesia is also a coal exporter with 
proven coal reserves of around 29.9 billion tons. In addition to fossil energy resources, 
Indonesia’s non-fossil energy resources include hydro, geothermal, biomass, and other 
CHAPTER 7


129
renewables such as solar and wind. For hydro, the estimated potential is around 75 
gigawatts (GW) while the estimated geothermal potential is more than 28 GW. In total, 
renewable energy potential in Indonesia is around 441.7 GW. Out of this, only 2%, or 
around 9 GW, has been utilised.
2.   Modelling Assumptions
Indonesia’s real GDP growth was 5.03% in 2016 and 5.07% in 2017 (Indrawati, 2018). The 
expected real GDP growth for 2018 is 5.4%. For 2019, the proposed state budget (APBN) 
2019 targeted the real GDP growth in the range of 5.4%–5.8%. The National Energy Policy 
(KEN) of 2014 assumed an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 8% from 2015 to 2025 
and will slow down to 7.25% in 2035 and 6.5% in 2050. 
Since the current real GDP growth is slower than that assumed in KEN, this study 
assumes that real GDP would grow at an AAGR of 5.8% in 2015–2040. This was based 
on the economic projections of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. For 
population, the growth assumption will be 0.8% per year over 2015–2040 period, based 
on the revised population projection of the Central Bureau of Statistics (2013). 
The scenarios are like the previous EOSP reports (since 2013); i.e. Business-As-Usual 
(BAU) scenario and the five Alternative Policy Scenarios (APSs). These APSs reflected 
the additional policy interventions likely to be implemented. These are energy efficiency 
and conservation (EEC) targets and action plans; efficiency improvement in power 
generation plants; more aggressive adoption of renewable energy; and introduction of 
nuclear energy, etc. For Indonesia, the five APSs considered are as follows:
1) More efficient final energy consumption (APS1), with specific energy saving targets by 
sector (Figure 7.1). In addition, Article 9 of the 2014 KEN states that energy elasticity 
will be less than 1 by 2025 and that final energy intensity will also be decreasing at 1% 
per year. These goals and targets were also the energy saving targets for this year’s 
study.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
2) More efficient thermal power generation (APS2), where higher improvement of 
existing coal-fired power plants and the introduction of cleaner coal technologies, 
were considered in the analysis. Also considered for this scenario are most efficient 
natural gas combined–cycle technologies. 
3) Higher contribution of new and renewable energy (NRE) and biofuels (APS3) – In 
this case, higher penetration of NRE for electricity generation and utilisation of liquid 
biofuels in the transport sector is assumed  compared to the BAU scenario. 
4) Introduction or higher utilisation of nuclear energy (APS4), an assumption that it will 
be in operation after 2020. This is in line with the current plan where two units will be 
constructed after 2020, each with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts (MW).  
5) The combination of APS1 to APS4 constitutes the assumptions of the APS (APS5).
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As Usual (BAU) Scenario
3.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Indonesia’s total final energy consumption (TFEC) increased at an average annual rate of 
2.9% between 1990 and 2015, increasing from 80 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) 
to 163 Mtoe. Given the assumed economic and population growth, the growth in the 
TFEC will continue but at a faster rate of 4.4% per year in 2015–2040 in the BAU scenario 
(Figure 7.2).
-
2015
2040
Figure 7.1: Energy Efficiency and Conservation  Assumptions  
Source: Author’s assumptions.
0.80
0.80
0.70
0.90
0.90
0.90
Power
Others
Commercial
Residential
Transport
Industrial
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20


131
Indonesia Country Report
This growth stems from the rapid increase of the energy consumed in the transport and 
industry sectors. The transport sector is still heavily dependent on oil. In the past, the final 
energy consumption of the transport sector grew at an average rate of 5.8% per year over 
1990–2015. This growth is expected to continue up to 2040 for the BAU scenario at a 
faster rate of 6.1% per year.
Final energy consumption in the industry sector grew at a slower rate than the transport 
sector in 1990–2015 (3.4% per year). It will still grow slower than the transport sector for 
the period 2015–2040 at an average rate of 5.3% per year.
Final energy consumption of the ‘others’ sector (mainly consisting of residential and 
commercial) grew at an average rate of 1.9% per year in 1990–2015. The final energy 
consumption of this sector is projected to experience a similar growth rate for the period 
2015–2040.
The ‘others’ sector had the highest share in the TFEC in 1990–2015 because of the high 
consumption of biomass mainly in the residential sector. The share, however, decreased 
from around 55% in 1990 to 43% in 2015. This is mainly due to the rapid increase of the 
fuel consumption of the transport sector. The share will continue to decline in the future 
as household appliances become more efficient and households use more alternatives, 
such as natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas or LPG. The sector’s share in the TFEC 
will decrease to 23% in 2040.
100
200
300
400
500
600
-
Mtoe
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Figure 7.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector (1990–2040)
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040


132
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The share of the transport sector in the TFEC had increased from around 13% in 1990 to 
27% in 2015. This share will continue to increase, reaching 41% in 2040. The combined 
share of oil and alternative fuels for transport will contribute more to the increase of the 
transport’s share in the TFEC.
The industry sector’s share in the TFEC was 23% in 1990–2015. This share is expected to 
increase to 32% by 2040 in line with the growth in industrial activities.
By fuel type, electricity experienced the fastest growth in 1990–2015, at an average 
rate of 8.1% per year. This rapid growth of electricity demand was due to the significant 
increase in the consumption of the industry and residential sectors, from 2.4 Mtoe in 
1990 to 17.2 Mtoe in 2015. Coal is also increasing significantly over the same period as 
industry expands, particularly the cement industries. Total coal demand increased from 
2 Mtoe in 1990 to almost 10 Mtoe in 2015, growing at an average rate of 6.2% per year. 
As for natural gas and oil, the average annual growth of these fuels in 1990–2015 was 
5.7% and 2.9%, respectively. Demand for other fuels (mostly biomass for households) 
increased by 13.5 Mtoe, at an average rate of 1.1% per year.
In the future, the demand for all fuels will continue to increase. For coal, demand will 
increase the fastest at an average rate of 6.4% per year to 45.6 Mtoe in 2040. Electricity 
is also expected to grow but at a slower rate than in the past. The AAGR for electricity 
demand would be 6.2% per year over the 2015–2040 period.
Natural gas and oil demand will grow at an average rate of 4.0% per year and 5.6% per year, 
respectively, between 2015 and 2040. Demand for other fuels will increase the slowest 
over the same period, at an average growth rate of 0.9% per year. This is mainly due to the 
decrease in the growth rate of biomass consumption of the residential sector.


133
100
200
300
400
500
600
-
Mtoe
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Electricity
Oil
Heat
Natural gas
Others
Coal
Electricity
Oil
Heat
Natural gas
Others
Figure 7.3: Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Oil will still play a major role in the country’s final energy consumption although more 
alternative fuels will be consumed by the end-use sectors. The share of oil is expected to 
be around 46% in 2040, increasing from 34.5% in 2015. The remaining share will be that 
of coal (9.6%), natural gas (13.5%), electricity (16.3%), and others (14.6%). 
3.1.2. 
 Primary Energy Supply
Total primary energy supply (TPES) in Indonesia grew faster than the final energy 
consumption at about 3.4% per year, from 98.6 Mtoe in 1990 to 229.5 Mtoe in 2015. 
Amongst the major energy sources, the fastest-growing fuels 1990–2015 were coal and 
geothermal energy. Coal supply grew at an average annual rate of 10.8% while geothermal 
energy grew at 9.2% a year. Gas supply increased at a slower rate of 3.8% per year while oil 
grew slightly slower at 2.9% per year.
In the BAU scenario, Indonesia’s TPES is projected to increase at an average annual rate 
of 4.4%, reaching 671.4 Mtoe in 2040. Coal is projected to continue growing but at a 
slower rate of 6.4% per year. Geothermal energy is also expected to increase over the 
same period. The new price structure for generating electricity from renewable energy will 
stimulate the development of geothermal energy, amongst others. The projected growth 
rate of geothermal energy until 2040 is 2.6% per year. 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Hydro, including mini and small hydro, will also increase at the same rate of geothermal in 
2015–2040. Consideration is being given to building more run-of-river-type hydro rather 
than reservoir type. 
Oil is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 5.1% in 2015–2040. At the same 
time, natural gas supply will also increase but slower than oil at an average rate of 4.2% per 
year. 
No uptake of nuclear energy is assumed in the BAU scenario. Thus, renewable energy 
will have a significant role in the future primary energy supply mix as the uptake of cleaner 
alternatives to oil increases. Other renewable energy resources include solar, wind, 
biofuels, and biomass.
Oil constituted the largest fossil fuel share in the TPES, but the share had declined slightly 
from 33.8% in 1990 to 29.5% in 2015. The share of natural gas in the total mix slightly 
increased from 16% in 1990 to 17.5% in 2015. 
Since both coal and geothermal rapidly grew in 1990–2015, the shares of these energy 
sources in the TPES have increased significantly. Coal share in the TPES increased from 
around 4% to 20% while geothermal share increased from 2% to 7.5%. Hydro’s share remains 
the same at 0.5% over the same period. Since others, which include biomass, solar, wind, 
100
300
200
400
500
600
700
800
-
Mtoe
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Coal
Nuclear
Nuclear
Oil
Oil
Hydro
Hydro
Natural gas
Natural gas
Geothermal
Geothermal
Others
Others
Figure 7.4: Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040


135
ocean, biofuels, and electricity, grew slower than the other fuels, its share declined from 
44.1% in 1990 to 24.7% in 2015.
In the BAU scenario, oil’s share will still be dominant throughout the 2015–2040 period, 
and its share in the TPES will reach 35% in 2040. Natural gas share will decrease slightly to 
16.6% by the end of 2040, while coal share will increase to 32.5%.
Since the supply of hydro, geothermal, and ‘others’ is growing slower than fossil fuel 
sources, the shares will be declining over 2015–2040. Hydro’s share in the TPES will 
decrease to 0.3% by 2040 and geothermal share, to 4.9%. The share of ‘others’ will reach 
10.8% in 2040, from 24.7% in 2015
3.1.3. 
 Power generation
Power generation output increased at an average rate of 8.2% per year over the past 2 
decades, from around 33 TWh in 1990 to 233 TWh in 2015. The fastest growth occurred 
in the production of electricity from natural gas plants at 19.2% per year. This is due to the 
increase in gas turbine and combined cycle capacities as natural gas became increasingly 
available.
In the BAU scenario, to meet electricity demand, power generation is projected to 
increase at a slower rate of 5.9% per year reaching almost 969 TWh in 2040. By type of 
fuel, generation from ‘others’ will grow the fastest at an average rate of 10.9% per year. The 
main reason for this very rapid growth is that generation from these other sources was very 
small in 2015 but is expected to increase significantly as a result of the government’s policy 
of increasing the use of NRE sources, including solar PV, wind, biomass, etc., classified as 
‘others’.
Generation from geothermal and hydro is also growing, but much slower than ’others’, 
both at 2.6%.
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Power generation from natural gas will continue to increase but at a much slower rate of 
5.4% per year while coal-based power generation will be growing at an average annual rate 
of 6.8%. No nuclear plant is considered under the BAU scenario.
The share of coal will remain dominant in the total power generation of the country. Its 
share in total power generation was lower than oil in 1990 (30%). The share increased 
over time as more coal-fired power plants were constructed. In 2015, the share increased 
to almost 56%, higher than that of oil. This share is expected to continue to increase in the 
future, reaching around 70% in 2040.
Oil had the largest share in power generation in 1990 (47%). By 2015, the share of oil 
declined to around 8.4% as production from coal and natural gas plants increased rapidly. 
Natural gas share in 2015 reached 25.2% and declined to 22.7% by 2040 under the BAU 
scenario.
Hydro’s share in the total electricity production of the country was 17.5% in 1990. The 
share declined to 5.9% in 2015. Under the BAU scenario, hydro's share is expected to 
continue to decline and reach 2.7% in 2040.
The share of geothermal and other renewables constituted about 4.5% of the power 
generation in 2015. The share of these renewables declined to 2.7% by 2040 under the 
BAU scenario. 
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
-
TWh
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Nuclear
Oil
Hydro
Natural gas
Geothermal
Others
Coal
Nuclear
Oil
Hydro
Natural gas
Geothermal
Others
Figure 7.5: Power Generation by Fuel Type (TWh) (1990–2040)
TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040


137
The average thermal efficiency of fossil fuel–based power plants was around 32% in 2015. 
the BAU scenario assumes a slight improvement in the efficiency of  coal and natural gas 
power plants causing the thermal efficiency of fossil fuel plants to increase to almost 35% 
in 2040.
By fuel, the thermal efficiency of coal-fired power plants will increase from 30% in 2015 to 
34% in 2040 while natural gas is assumed to increase from 38% to 40%. Oil will remain less 
than 31% over the 2015–2040 period (Figure 7.6).
3.1.4. 
 Energy indicators
Indonesia’s primary energy intensity (TPES/GDP) had been increasing until 2000. Since 
then, the intensity declined and reached a level of 232 toe/million 2010 US$ in 2015. The 
final energy intensity had been declining and reached a level of 165 toe/million 2010 US$ 
in 2015. These indicate that energy producers and consumers have started to effectively 
use energy by implementing energy conservation measures and greater utilisation of 
energy-efficient technologies. 
In the BAU scenario, primary and final energy intensity is projected to decline at an average 
annual rate of 1.3% in 2015–2040. Primary energy intensity in 2040 will be around 166 
toe/million 2010 US$ while final energy intensity will be 118 toe/million 2010 US$. 
Figure 7.6: Thermal Efficiency, BAU (2015–2040)
Source: Author’s assumptions.
25
27
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
29
31
33
35
39
37
41
Percent
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Thus, the energy intensity ratio (primary and final) is expected to improve by almost 29% 
in 2040 compared to 2015.
Per capita energy consumption, measured as the ratio of TPES to the total population, had 
been increasing since 1990, from 0.5 to 0.9 in 2015. This level of energy consumption 
per capita indicates improving energy access of society, which can be reflected by the 
electrification ratio. In 2015, the electrification ratio was around 88.5% and reached 94.8% 
in 2017. The government expected all households to have access to electricity by 2020. 
Under the BAU scenario, energy consumption per capita will continue to increase and will 
reach 2.1 toe per person in 2040. This result is in accordance with the existing national 
energy policy (2014), which targeted a level of 1.4 toe in 2025 and 3.2 toe in 2050.
In  the BAU scenario, the elasticity of final energy consumption is expected to continue 
declining and will reach 0.8 in 2040. Elasticity lesser than 1 indicates that growth in final 
energy consumption will be slower than growth in GDP over the period 2015–2040. 
3.2. Energy Savings and CO2 Reduction Potential 
The assumptions in the APS were analysed separately to determine the individual impact 
of each assumption in APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and the combination of all these 
assumptions, APS5. Figure 7.8 shows the changes in the TPES for all the scenarios.
Figure 7.7: Energy Intensity and Other Energy Indicators (1990=100)
    Source: Author’s calculations.
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
600
500
400
300
200
100
700
%
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 per Intensity
CO2 per Capita


139
Figure 7.8: Comparison of Scenarios of Total Primary Energy Supply by 2040
 Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
-
Mtoe
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
Figure 7.8 illustrates that APS1 and APS5 have the largest reduction in primary energy 
supply in 2040 due to the energy efficiency assumptions on the demand side. Energy 
efficiency assumptions in APS1 could reduce the TPES in the BAU scenario by as much as 
118 Mtoe or 17.6%. For APS5, the reduction will amount to 104 Mtoe or 15.5%.
APS2, which assumes higher efficiency in thermal electricity generation, will also reduce 
the TPES in 2040 by 42 Mtoe or 6.2% compared to the BAU scenario. Since APS2 does 
not assume efficiency measures for the final sector, it will have a lower impact than APS1. 
Therefore, the reduction is due mainly to the use of more efficient power generation while 
some conventional plants ceased operation after reaching their technical lifetime. 
For APS3, the TPES increased slightly as more renewable energy for power generation 
started operation and more biofuels were being consumed by the transport sector. The 
difference between APS3 and the BAU scenario for 2040 is only around 11.5 Mtoe or 
1.7%. 
The introduction of nuclear power generation after 2020 (APS4) will also increase the 
total primary energy mix of 2040 by only 1.4 Mtoe or 0.2% compared to the BAU scenario. 
The result indicates that the introduction of nuclear plants will reduce the consumption 
of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) in generating power. However, since the efficiency of nuclear 
plants is slightly lower than the average thermal efficiency of fossil fuel plants, then there 
can be no savings relative to the BAU scenario results.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 7.9 shows the total electricity generation in 2040 in all scenarios. In APS1, due to 
the lower electricity demand, the shares of fossil-fired electricity generation will be lower 
than in  the BAU scenario, 93%  compared to 95%. In APS2, the share is the same as that of 
the BAU scenario. In APS3, due to the assumption of more renewable energy, the shares 
of fossil fuel–fired generation could be reduced by 5% while in APS4, nuclear energy could 
reduce fossil fuel share by almost 2%. In APS5, where all scenarios were combined, the 
reduction in the shares of fossil energy–based generation will be significant; i.e. almost 
22% lower than the BAU scenario.
In terms of CO2 emissions reduction, energy efficiency assumptions in APS1 could reduce 
emissions by 22% in 2040  compared to the BAU scenario. In APS2, the installation of 
more efficient new power plants could reduce emissions by 9%. Higher contributions 
from renewable energy could reduce emissions by 6% while nuclear energy could reduce 
emissions by 1%. All these assumptions combined (APS5) could reduce BAU scenario 
CO2 emissions by 36% in 2040.
Figure 7.9: Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation by 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
-
Mtoe
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


141
Figure 7.10: Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions by 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons carbon.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
250
200
150
100
50
300
350
400
450
500
-
Mt-C
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
3.2.1. 
 Final energy consumption
In the combined APS (APS5), the TFEC is projected to increase at a slower rate than 
in  the BAU scenario, increasing at an average rate of 3.5% per year from 162 Mtoe in 
2015 to 388 Mtoe in 2040. Slower growth under the APS, relative to the BAU scenario, is 
projected across all sectors as a result of the government’s EEC programme, particularly in 
the transport sector. The growth rate of energy demand in the transport sector is projected 
to increase by 4.8% per year compared with 6.1% per year in the BAU scenario. Figure 7.11 
shows the TFEC by sector in 2015 and 2040 in both the BAU scenario and the APS.
Final energy consumption savings are estimated to be 27 Mtoe in the industry sector, 52 
Mtoe in the transport sector, and 9.3 Mtoe in the residential/commercial (‘others’) sector 
by 2040 under the APS, relative to the BAU scenario.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.2. 
 Primary energy supply
In the combined APS (APS5), the TPES is projected to increase at a slower rate, relative to 
the BAU scenario, 3.7% per year to 567 Mtoe in 2040. All energy sources are projected to 
experience positive AAGRs. However, some will be slower than in the BAU scenario. The 
lower TPES relative to the BAU scenario reflects EEC measures on the demand and supply 
sides, with the use of more efficient technology for power generation.
In terms of  fuel type, there are estimated savings of almost 111 Mtoe for coal, 50 Mtoe 
for oil, and 18 Mtoe for natural gas by 2040 under the APS, relative to the BAU scenario. 
In case of other resources (new and renewable resources, nuclear, and ‘others’), the TPES 
in the APS in 2040 is 159 Mtoe higher than that in the BAU scenario.
Figure 7.11: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
100
50
150
200
250
-
–18.1%
–26.9%
–8.4%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
Mtoe
0.0%


143
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
Mtoe
Figure 7.12: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
150
100
50
250
200
300
350
-
147.9%
–50.9%
–21.6%
–15.9%
3.2.3. 
 Projected energy savings
Total energy savings (the difference between the TPES in the BAU scenario and the APS) 
are 104 Mtoe in 2040. These could be achieved through the implementation of EEC and 
renewable energy targets and action plans of Indonesia, improved power plant efficiency, 
and introduction of nuclear energy. These are more than half of Indonesia’s TPES in 2015, 
which is around 230 Mtoe.
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
104.13 Mtoe, –15.5%
Figure 7.13: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
500
400
300
200
100
600
700
800
-
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.4. 
 Energy intensities
The 2014 National Energy Policy emphasised the target of 1% per year reduction in final 
energy intensity up to 2025. Under the BAU scenario, the final energy intensity has 
been (and will be) on the decline at an average rate of 1.3 per year over 2015–2040. 
Implementation of the sectoral EEC targets under the APS will result in a faster declining 
rate for the final energy intensity, 2% per year over the projection period.
In terms of primary energy intensity, the annual reduction will be similar, 1.3% under the 
BAU scenario. In the APS, the annual reduction in primary energy intensity will also be 2% 
under extensive implementation of the sectoral EEC targets.
3.2.5. 
 CO2 emissions from energy consumption
CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to increase at an average annual 
rate of 5.6% from around 122 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 476 Mt-C in 
2040 in the BAU scenario. This is driven by the increasing use of carbon-intensive fuels, 
particularly the use of coal for power generation and industry, as well as oil in the transport 
sector.
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, toe = tons of oil equivalent.    
Source: Author’s calculations.
Final Energy Intensity
toe/million US$
toe/million US$
Primary Energy Intensity
Figure 7.14: Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
-
1990
2000 2015 2020 2025 2030
2035 2040
250
200
150
100
50
300
BAU
APS
-
1990
2000 2015 2020 2025 2030
2035 2040
300
200
250
150
100
50
350
400
BAU
APS


145
Figure 7.15: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS (2015–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
300
200
100
400
500
-
Million Tons of Oil Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
171.32 Mtoe, –36%
In the combined APS (APS5), the CO2 emissions in 2015–2040 are expected to be 36% 
lower than in the BAU scenario. The inclusion of more energy conservation measures, 
higher efficiency, elevated renewable targets, and the inclusion of nuclear energy after 
2020 would contribute to the reduced emissions. The government has committed 
to reduce CO2 emissions in 2030 by 29% without international assistance, and 41% 
with international assistance. This study’s result, which is 36% reduction, is above the 
committed target of 29%. However, to achieve the committed CO2 reduction target of 
41%, the combined target and action plan specified under APS5 must be more aggressive. 
3.2.6. 
 Review of Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contributions and APS 
 
 
 results
Regarding climate change, Indonesia ratified the Paris Agreement through Law Number 
16, year of 2016, which was submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on 
Climate Change on 6 November 2016. This is a commitment amongst countries across 
the globe to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The commitment in Indonesia’s 
NDC was to unconditionally reduce 29% of GHG emissions by 2030, and conditionally 
reduce up to 41% through international support. The percentage value is the sectors' 
reduction compared to the total BAU value of 2030. Table 7.1 shows the GHG emissions 
reduction target under the NDC. The CM1 is the countermeasure under the unconditional 
mitigation scenario, and CM2 is the countermeasure under the conditional mitigation 
scenario.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Based on the NDC, the energy sector is projected to emit GHG almost four times the 
2010 level by 2030 if no countermeasures are taken (CM1). The sources of emissions 
are fuel combustion and fugitive emissions from fuel production. The industry and power 
generation will be the major emitters of GHG emissions in 2030. These sectors are the 
major consumers of coal in the country. 
Based on the NDC emissions reduction target, the estimated GHG emissions reduction 
from energy (fuel combustion and including fugitive) will be 314 Mt-CO2e under the CM1 
condition (unconditional) and 398 Mt-CO2e under the CM2 condition (conditional). 
This will be around 19% reduction and 23% reduction, respectively, from the BAU scenario 
emissions of the sector.
The CO2 emissions in the current outlook will also increase almost four times over the 
planning period, from around 122 Mt-C (447 Mt-CO2) in 2015 to 476 Mt-C (1,745 
Mt-CO2) in 2040 under the BAU scenario. Although slightly higher, the trend is like the 
NDC projection for 2010 to 2030. The CO2 emissions under the APS for 2040 will be 
1,117 Mt-CO2, which is 12% lower than the projected level for the CM2 in the NDC. 
Compared to  BAU, the APS will reduce the CO2 emission by 628 Mt-CO2, or 36% (Table 
7.2). By implementing the efforts assumed under the APS (which is a combination of 
APS1, APS2, APS3, and APS4), the reduction in CO2 emissions will be higher than the 
NDC target. These are promoting energy efficiency efforts in all final sectors, improving 
thermal efficiency of fossil power plants, increasing renewable shares in the transport and 
power sectors, and installing two units of 1,100 MW nuclear plants by 2040.
Table 7.1: NDC Emissions Reduction Targets for GHG
No
Sector
GHG
Emissions Level
2010*
GHG Emissions Level 
2030, (MtCO2e)
GHG Emissions Reduction
MtCO2e
(MtCO2e)
% of Total BAU
BAU
CM1
CM2
CM1
CM2
CM1
CM2
1
Energy*
453.2
1,669
1,355
1,271
314
398
11.0%
13.9%
2
Waste
88.0
296
285
270
11
26
0.4%
0.9%
3
IPPU
36.0
70
67
66
3
3
0.1%
0.1%
4
Agriculture
110.5
120
110
116
9
4
0.3%
0.1%
5
Forestry**
647.0
714
217
64
497
650
17.2%
23.0%
TOTAL
1,334.0
2,869
2,034
1,787
834
1,081
29.0%
38.0%
BAU = Business-As-Usual, CM = countermeasure, GHG = greenhouse gases, IPPU = Industrial Processes and Product Use,   
 
MtCO2e = metric tons of equivalent carbon dioxide, NDC = Nationally Determined Contributions.
*Including fugitive,  ** including peat fire
Source: Indonesia NDC and the Way Forward, Webinar NDC on 20 July 2017.


147
Table 7.2: CO2 Emissions in 2030 and 2040 for BAU and APS
Fuel Type
GHG Emissions Level (Mt-CO2)
GHG Emissions Reduction
2015
2030
BAU
2030
APS
2040
BAU
2040
APS
2030 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Mt-
CO2)
2040 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Mt-
CO2)
2030 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(%)
2040 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(%)
Coal
181 
553 
261 
850 
418 
292
432 
52.9
50.9
Gas
87 
137 
119 
237
194 
18
43
13.3
18.1
Oil
179
540
411
658 
505
129
153
23.9
23.2
TOTAL
447
1,230
790
1,745
1,117
440 
628
35.8
36.0
BAU = Business-As-Usual, CM = countermeasure, GHG = greenhouse gases, Mt-CO2 = metric tons of carbon dioxide.
Source: Author’s calculation.
In 2030, the total CO2 emission under the BAU scenario is around 1,230 Mt-CO2, which 
is slightly below the CM2 level of the NDC. Thus, under the current outlook, the CO2 
emission level assumed for the CM2 will be achievable in 2030 under the BAU scenario 
assumption which are economic growth on average at 5.8% per year, average population 
growth of 0.8% per year, and implementation of the current energy policy which already 
assumed 1.3% reduction in energy intensity, and increased share of renewables including 
biofuels both in the transport and the power sectors as outlined in the biofuel road map.
The CO2 emissions reduction is highest in the case of coal compared to oil and gas. 
Oil is mostly consumed by the transport sector and will remain dominant, despite the 
introduction of other alternatives to oil. Coal is mainly used in the power sector. The 
increasing share of NRE as outlined in the current energy policy will reduce the coal 
share significantly. Figure 7.16 shows the share of the different sources of energy in total 
electricity generation in 2040. The figure shows that the growth of electricity production 
from coal-fired power plants in the APS is slower than that of the NRE- and gas-based 
power plants. In the case of NRE-based power plants, solar- and biomass-based power 
generation will grow fastest, considering it was very small in 2015.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
Indonesia’s primary energy intensity (TPES/GDP) and final energy intensity (TFEC/GDP) 
have been declining as a result of greater utilisation of efficient energy technologies by both 
energy producers and consumers. Under the BAU scenario, the primary energy intensity 
declined at 1.3% per year over the projection period. Further adaptation of the sectoral 
target combined with the renewables’ portfolio, efficient power plant technology, and 
introduction of nuclear energy, will enable the country’s energy intensity to decline even 
more at 2.1% per year. The elasticity of primary energy supply is also projected to decrease 
to below 1.0 under the BAU scenario (0.8) and furthermore to 0.6 under the assumptions 
that the sectoral saving target and the other policy interventions under APS2, APS3, and 
APS4 are implemented fully as indicated in the combined APS (APS5) scenario.
The primary energy supply per capita is in the range of 1.7 to 2.2 toe/person for all 
scenarios by 2040. This is still below that of neighbouring countries like Thailand and 
Malaysia. The development of energy infrastructure, particularly in the remote and small 
island areas, will improve the electrification ratio and, hence, increase accessibility to 
energy.
Oil will still have the largest share in the total primary energy mix. The 2014 National 
Energy Policy sets the target of less than 25% in 2025, and of less than 20% in 2050. 
The transport sector, which is the main consumer of oil in the country, will be crucial 
Figure 7.16: Power Generation Mix, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, NRE = new and renewable energy.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60%
40%
20%
80%
100%
0%
2015
2040-BAU
2040-APS
10.40%
5.38%
26.87%
26.59%
3.12%
43.42%
22.71%
1.59%
70.33%
25.24%
8.24%
55.93%
NRE
Oil
Coal
Gas


149
for achieving these energy-saving targets. Government should further encourage the 
transport sector programme by improving the public transport system and promoting the 
use of alternative fuels and more efficient vehicles.
The current analysis which assumed increased use of alternative fuels and more efficient 
vehicles in the transport sector and efficient boilers in the industries resulted in  oil 
consumption savings between the BAU scenario and the APS of as high as 23% in 2040. 
The combined APSs (APS5) assumed implementation of programmes to achieve the 
sectoral energy-saving targets such as
• 
Promoting industrial energy efficiency through mandatory energy management for 
industries consuming more than 6,000 toe as mandated by Government Regulation 
no. 70/2009, through a system optimisation approach, and by adapting the 
ISO50001 as the reference for the national competent standard on energy managers. 
• 
Saving 10% of electricity consumption through national campaigns and through 
regulations in the case of government buildings.
• 
Implementing ‘Green Building’ in existing and new buildings by formulating stricter 
legislation to improve the environment quality of buildings , and encouraging green 
buildings by adopting the standards in Regulation No. 02/PRT/M/2015 on Green 
Building issued by the Minister of Public Works and Public Housing. Both the governor 
of DKI Jakarta and the mayor of Bandung had already issued regulations on green 
buildings, Regulation No. 38/2012 and Regulation no. 1023/2016, respectively.
• 
Promoting the labelling and performance standards on electrical appliances in the 
residential sector through regulations that mandate energy efficiency labelling and 
minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for appliances. Regulations are 
in place for compact fluorescent lamps or CFL and for air conditioning. MEPS and 
labelling for refrigerators, rice cookers, washing machines, water pumps, and LED 
lights will soon be finalised.
• 
Formulating funding mechanisms (private, public, or a combination of both) to 
promote efficient technologies and equipment. The main issue is the lack of financial 
support from commercial banks and other financial institutions. Provision of policies 
that will increase investment amounts and reduce strict collateral requirements of 
banks and other financial institutions is currently ongoing. In addition, policies and 
regulations to facilitate and support the establishment of energy-saving companies 
will also support funding for EEC projects. 
Pursuing EEC programmes is one measure of reducing CO2 emissions to achieve the 
committed target in the NDC of 29% (without international support) and 41% (with 
international support). Increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the supply 
mix, increased thermal efficiency of fossil fuel plants, and the introduction of nuclear 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
energy, as implied in the APS, would further reduce CO2 emissions. The assumptions in 
the APS will slow down CO2 emissions compared to the BAU scenario. The reduction 
level is more than that targeted in the NDC for the energy sector; i.e. more than 440 Mt-
CO2 in 2030 compared to 392 Mt-CO2 under CM2 of the NDC. Most of the reductions 
will come from reducing the use of coal, particularly in the power sector, and replacing it 
with renewable energy such as solar, hydro, and geothermal.
Both the BAU scenario and the combined APS (APS5) projected that renewable energy 
will play a major role in the country’s energy mix. The government has implemented 
programmes and issued regulations to accelerate the development of renewable energy 
in Indonesia. The recent Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) Regulation 
No. 50 Year 2017 provide more opportunities for the private sector to enhance the 
development of hydro, geothermal, PV, wind, municipal waste, biomass (agriculture 
estates), biogas, and ocean energy for on-grid electricity. MEMR Regulation no. 38 of 
2016 provides opportunities for the private sector and local state-owned companies to 
develop small-scale power supply (off-grid/mini-grid) from renewable energy (mini/
micro hydro, PV, etc.) to accelerate electrification in undeveloped rural, remote, border, 
and populated small island areas.
Through the Biodiesel Mandatory Roadmap (MEMR Regulation No. 12 of 2015), the 
government promotes biofuel use for non-electricity purposes, such as in the transport 
sector, as alternative for diesel fuel. Indonesia started Biodiesel Blending in 2008 with 
B2.5 then gradually increased to B5, B10, B15, and reached B20 in 2016. This mandate 
opens  opportunities for the private sector to produce cleaner biofuel.
Further measures still need to be undertaken to attract increased private sector 
involvement. Examples are improving the transparency and awareness of government 
support mechanisms, enhancing financial institutions to participate in renewable energy 
projects, improving the mechanism for providing incentives to promote NRE sources, 
further collaborating with developed countries to promote low-carbon technologies, etc.


151
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Hutapea, M. (2018), ‘The Experiences of Renewable Energy Development in Indonesia,’ 
Presentation material at the 1st Working Meeting of the Basic Energy Plan for Cambodia, 
Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 4–6 May 2018 (unpublished). 
Indrawati, S.M. (2018), ‘Indonesia Outlook. Striking the Right Balance Between Reform 
and Growth,’ Paper presented at the Mandiri Investor Forum, Hotel Fairmont Senayan, 
Jakarta, Indonesia, 7 February 2018. http://perbanas.org/file/CP180208007_file2018-
02-08_11-10-10.pdf. (accessed 22 June 2016). 
Masripatin, N. (2017), 'Indonesia NDC and the Way Forward,' Webinar NDC on 20 July 
2017. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/09_indonesia_webinar_ndc_20jul2017.
pdf (accessed 7 September 2017).
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (2017), ‘Handbook of Energy and Economic 
Statistics of Indonesia 2017.’ http://www.esdm.go.id/publikasi/statistik/handbook.
html (accessed 3 November 2017).
Indonesia Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Republic of Indonesia (2015), ‘Intended National Determined Contribution Republic of 
Indonesia’, 
http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/
Indonesia/ 1/INDC_REPUBLIC%20OF%20INDONESIA.pdf (accessed 7 September 
2017).
Republic of Indonesia (2014), ‘National Energy Policy 2014, Government Regulation No. 
79 year 2014.’ http://www.den.go.id/.(accessed 10 October 2017).
World Bank (2017), World Development Index (WDI) Update, September 2017. 
Washington, DC: World Bank.


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JAPAN COUNTRY REPORT
1.   Background
Japan is a small island-nation in Eastern Asia. It consists of several thousand islands 
spanning a land area of approximately 377,960 square kilometres; most of its land area is 
mountainous and thickly forested. Until 2009, it was the world’s second-largest economy 
after the United States. In 2010, however, China surpassed Japan as the world’s second-
largest economy. Japan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 was about US$5,986 
billion (constant 2010 prices) (World Bank, 2017), and the population is currently about 
127 million.
1.1.  Energy Situation
Japan possesses limited indigenous energy resources and imports almost all its crude 
oil, coal, and natural gas requirements to sustain economic activity. In 2015, Japan’s 
primary energy supply was 429.8 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe). By energy type, oil 
represented the largest share at 43.0%, coal was second at 27.3%, followed by natural gas 
at 23.3%. Nuclear energy accounted for 0.6%. Others, such as hydro, geothermal, wind, 
and solar, represented the remainder of 5.8%. In 2015, net imports of energy accounted 
for about 99% of net primary energy supply. With limited indigenous energy sources, 
Japan imported almost 100% of oil and coal, and 98% of gas.
Japan is a large importer of coal: steam coal for power generation, pulp and paper, and 
cement production; and coking coal for steel production. Domestic demand for natural 
gas is met almost entirely by imports of liquefied natural gas. Natural gas is mainly used 
for electricity generation, followed by reticulated city gas and industrial fuels. In 2015, 
primary natural gas consumption was 100 Mtoe.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Japan’s final energy consumption experienced a slight growth of 0.1% per year from 287.0 
Mtoe in 1990 to 291.4 Mtoe in 2015. The residential/commercial (‘others’) sector had 
the highest growth rate during this period at 1.1% per year, followed by the transport 
sector with 0.2%. Consumption in the industry sector decreased at a rate of 1.1% per year 
on average over the period 1990–2015. Oil was the most-consumed product, having a 
share of 59.5% in 1990; it decreased to 52.3% in 2015. Electricity was the second most-
consumed product. 
Japan’s primary energy supply decreased at the rate of 0.1% per year from 438.6 Mtoe 
in 1990 to 429.8 Mtoe in 2015. Amongst the major energy sources, the fastest-growing 
fuels were natural gas and coal. Natural gas and coal consumption grew at an average 
annual rate of 3.3% and 1.7%, respectively, while nuclear energy declined at 11.5% in 
1990–2015 due to the Great East Japan earthquake. Oil consumption declined by 1.2% 
per year over the same period.
In Japan, 292 gigawatts (GW) of power generation capacity was installed and generated 
about 1,035 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2015. The generation by energy type 
is broken down as thermal (coal, natural gas, and oil) at 82.6%; nuclear, 0.9%; hydro, 8.2%; 
and geothermal, solar, and wind taking up the remaining 8.0%.
2. Modelling Assumptions
In this outlook, Japan’s real GDP is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 1% 
from 2015 to 2040. With the maturing of Japanese society and economy, the industry 
structure will become increasingly oriented towards the service industry. 
Population growth, on the other hand, will decline by about 0.4% per year from 2015 to 
2040 due to the decreasing birth rate. Japan’s population is projected to decrease from 
127 million in 2013 to 114 million in 2040. Figure 8.1 shows the assumptions of GDP and 
population growth in this study.
The development of Japan’s infrastructure and the expansion of its manufacturing industry 
will be saturated over the outlook period, and production of crude steel, cement, and 
ethylene will gradually decline. The number of automobiles will decline as the population 
shrinks.


155
Japan Country Report
%
Figure 8.1: Annual Growth Rate of GDP and Population
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Author’s assumption.
-0.5
-1.0
0.0
1990-2015
2015-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
0.5
1.0
1.5
GDP
Population
The New Strategic Energy Plan was approved by the Cabinet in April 2014. Based on 
this plan, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) approved the Long-term 
Energy Supply and Demand Outlook in July 2015. According to the Outlook, the share of 
nuclear power will be reduced from about 30% before the Great East Japan Earthquake to 
about 20%–22% in 2030. The share of renewable energy will be about 22% to 24% in 2030, 
which was 11% before the earthquake. Also, the share of baseload power (hydropower, 
coal-fired thermal power, nuclear power, etc.) will be approximately 56%.
Japan’s energy savings goal will be attained through the implementation of national 
energy efficiency programmes in all energy-consuming sectors. For the industry sector, 
energy savings are expected from improvements in manufacturing technologies. In the 
residential/commercial sector, the ‘Top Runner Programme’1 is projected to induce huge 
savings in addition to programmes on energy management systems, improvements in 
adiabatic efficiency, lighting systems, and heat pump systems. In the transport sector, 
efficiency improvements will be achieved from improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency, 
including increases in the stock of hybrid vehicles and structural changes in vehicles. Figure 
8.2 shows the assumed thermal efficiencies of thermal power plants in the Business-As-
Usual (BAU) scenario.
1 
This is Japan’s energy efficiency programme that aims to improve the energy efficiency of household and office 
appliances as well as vehicles. It sets the end-use energy performance of the best technology available in the market 
as the standard for each product category.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.   Simulation Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1. 
 Final Energy Consumption
With the projected relatively low economic growth and declining population, Japan’s final 
energy demand from 2015 to 2040 is projected to decline at an average rate of 0.4% per 
year in the BAU scenario. This is also driven by improved energy efficiency in the transport 
sector. The final energy consumption of the transport sector is projected to decrease at an 
annual average rate of 1.3% from 2015 to 2040. This is mainly due to improvements in the 
fuel economy of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, and the penetration 
of hybrid vehicles. Figure 8.3 shows the projected final energy consumption by sector 
from 1990 to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Figure 8.2: Thermal Efficiency, BAU
BAU= Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
30
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
35
40
45
50
55
%
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas


157
Figure 8.3: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Industry
Transportation
Others
Non-Energy
Mtoe
By fuel type, the consumption of coal and oil is projected to decrease at an average 
annual rate of 0.4% and 1.1%, respectively, between 2015 and 2040. On the other 
hand, consumption of natural gas and electricity is projected to increase at 0.6% and 
0.4% per year, respectively, over the period. Figure 8.4 shows the projected final energy 
consumption by source from 1990 to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Mtoe
Figure 8.4: Final Energy Consumption by Source, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
100
200
300
400
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.1.2. 
 Primary energy supply
Under the BAU scenario, Japan’s net primary energy supply is projected to decrease 
at an average annual rate of 0.1% per year from 429.8 Mtoe in 2015 to 414.3 Mtoe in 
2040 (Figure 8.5). This decrease is due mainly to the decreasing use of oil at an average 
annual growth rate (AAGR) of 1.5% between 2015 and 2040. On the other hand, nuclear 
and renewable energy including hydro will have increased AAGRs of 10.9% and 1.7%, 
respectively. The share of nuclear between 2015 and 2040 is projected to increase from 
0.6% to 7.9%. The self-sufficiency rate of primary energy will reach 26.3% in 2040, from 
7.0% in 2015, after the restart of nuclear power plants and penetration of renewable 
energy.
3.1.3.  Energy indicators
The energy consumption per capita towards 2040 will increase during the projection 
period. Income elasticity2 between 2015 and 2040 is expected to decline because the 
growth rate in energy consumption will be negative while the GDP growth rate is assumed 
to be positive.
Except for energy consumption per capita, all other energy indicators will exhibit decreases 
from the 2015 levels by 2040. CO2 intensity carbonisation rate (CO2 emissions per unit 
of energy consumption) will be about 46% lower than the 1990 levels and about 44% 
lower than the 2015 levels. Figure 8.6 shows the evolution of several kinds of indicators of 
energy consumption in Japan from 1990 to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Figure 8.5: Primary Energy Supply, BAU
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
Mtoe
2 
Growth rate of energy consumption divided by growth rate of GDP. 


159
3.2.  Energy Savings and CO2 Reduction Potential
3.2.1. 
 Final energy consumption
In the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), final energy consumption is projected to decline 
at the faster rate of 0.6% per year, from 291.4 Mtoe in 2015 to 248.8 Mtoe in 2040. 
In all final sectors (industry, transport, ‘others’), energy consumption will continue to 
decrease due to improved energy efficiency. The transport sector especially will achieve a 
remarkable savings of 1.3% per year due to the Top Runner Programme and more aggressive 
energy management systems. Japan will implement continuous efforts to improve energy 
efficiency, especially regarding the penetration of energy-efficient automobiles, such as 
hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. 
The industry and services sectors will also make efforts to improve their energy efficiency 
although it will be difficult for these sectors to do so drastically because energy efficiency 
and conservation actions in those sectors have already been done so far.  Figure 8.7 shows 
the final energy consumption by sector in the BAU scenario and the APS.
Figure 8.6: Indices of Energy and CO2 Intensities, Energy per 
Capita, and Carbonisation Rate, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 per Intensity
CO2 per Capita
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
120
100
80
60
40
20
140
1990=100
Japan Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 8.7: Final Energy Consumption by Sectors, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
80
60
40
20
100
120
0
–17.9%
–7.3%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–1.2%
3.2.2. 
 Primary energy supply
In the APS, the projected primary energy supply of Japan will decline at a rate of 0.3% per 
year to 394.1 Mtoe in 2040, 35.7 Mtoe lower than that in 2015. Coal, oil, and natural gas 
will have decreasing AAGRs of 1.1%, 1.8%, and 0.7%, respectively. Nuclear and biomass 
will partially substitute fossil fuels. Figure 8.8 shows the primary energy supply by source 
under the BAU scenario and the APS.
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
Mtoe
+42.8%
–18.3%
–10.9%
–16.0%
Figure 8.8: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
100
50
150
200
0


161
3.2.3. 
 Projected energy savings
Energy savings that could be derived from action plans of Japan amount to 20.15 Mtoe, 
the difference between the primary energy demand of the BAU scenario and the APS 
(Figure 8.9). This is equivalent to 4.9% reduction of Japan’s consumption under the BAU 
scenario in 2040. 
Estimated savings in final energy consumption in the residential/commercial sector will 
amount to 7.11 Mtoe and 9.25 Mtoe in the transport sector in 2040 in the APS. The 
projected decreases in the consumption of the transport sector in 2015–2040 are 25.3 
Mtoe in the BAU scenario and 42.6 Mtoe in the APS. This is attributable to the increase 
of more efficient vehicles.
3.2.4. 
 CO2 emissions from energy consumption
Under the BAU scenario, CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to 
decrease at an average annual rate of 0.7% from 312.9 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 
2015 to 219.2 Mt-C in 2040 (Figure 8.10). Under the APS, CO2 emissions are projected 
to decline at average annual rate of 1.4% between 2015 and 2040.
Figure 8.9: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
420.0
410.0
400.0
390.0
380.0
430.0
440.0
450.0
370.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
20.15 Mtoe,-4.9%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
Figure 8.10: CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion, BAU and APS
420.0
410.0
400.0
390.0
380.0
430.0
440.0
370.0
44.11 Mt-C,-16.7%
4. 
  Japan’s Intended Nationally Determined 
   Contributions
Japan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions towards reduced greenhouse 
gas emissions after 2020 is 26.6% by fiscal year (FY) 2030, compared to that of FY2013 
(25.4% reduction compared to FY2005, approximately 1.042 billion tons of carbon 
dioxide equivalent (t-CO2e). That target is consistent with METI’s Long-term Energy 
Supply and Demand Outlook of Japan’s quantitative policy target for energy mix in 2030. 
Japan is expected to achieve this target in the APS.
5.   Implications and Policy Recommendations
Japan’s primary energy intensity has been declining since 1980, and it is the lowest 
worldwide. This could be due to the enormous improvements in energy efficiencies in 
both supply- and demand-side technologies that have been developed and implemented 
in the country. The fact that Japan imports most of its energy requirements is another 
reason the country is very aggressive in improving energy efficiency. 
The Cabinet approved the Strategic Energy Plan in April 2014 (Government of Japan, 
2014). The plan was the basis for METI’s approval in July 2015 of the Long-term Energy 
Supply and Demand Outlook (METI, 2015), which presents the ideal structure of energy 
supply and demand. This can be realised if appropriate measures are taken based on the 


163
fundamental direction of energy policies. Japan’s objectives are safety, energy security, 
economic efficiency, and environment, which are the basic concepts of the policies. 
CO2 emissions in 2040 are projected to be much lower than those of the 1990 level in the 
APS, based on METI’s Outlook, and even in the BAU scenario. However, to achieve the 
26% reduction target for 2030, Japan should effectively implement its policies on low-
carbon technology, including energy efficiency and zero emissions energy.
For energy efficiency, the APS requires a 1% improvement per year for companies that 
consume large amounts of energy, and a target of 50% share in sales for hybrid vehicles. 
Renewable and nuclear energy play a key role in decarbonising power generation. 
To achieve intensive renewable energy penetration, like in the APS, it is necessary to 
significantly reduce the capital cost, invest in grids to cope with fluctuations of power 
from photovoltaic and wind, and implement effective grid rules. As for nuclear energy, 
mature safety measures and sufficient communication with local communities for restart 
are required.
In addition, as the leader in energy efficiency, Japan’s government and companies should 
share best practices of policies, services, and products with other countries. By doing this, 
Japan can contribute to reducing world energy consumption. This is beneficial to Japan as 
well since such activity helps with the global expansion of its market. 
References
Government of Japan (2014), Strategic Energy Plan. Tokyo: Government of Japan.
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2017), World Energy Balances. Paris: IEA.
Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry Japan (METI) (2015), Long-term Energy Supply 
and Demand Outlook. Tokyo: METI.
World Bank (2017), World Develop Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Japan Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
REPUBLIC OF KOREA COUNTRY 
REPORT
1.   Background
The Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea) is in the southern half of the Korean Peninsula 
and shares a 238-kilometre border with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 
(North Korea). It occupies 100,188 square kilometres and includes about 3,000 mostly 
small, uninhabited islands. Korea is a mountainous country with lowlands accounting for 
only 30% of the total land area. The climate is temperate, with heavy rainfall in summer. As 
of 2015, Korea had a population of 51.069 million, over 90% of whom live in urban areas. 
Korea has recorded tremendous economic growth over the past half century, overcoming 
the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and the global economic crisis in 2008. However, due to 
the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, growth has slowed down. The Korean economy 
is dominated by manufacturing, particularly electronic products, passenger vehicles, and 
petrochemicals.
Korea has no domestic oil resources and has produced only a small amount of anthracite 
coal, but imports most of its coal, which is bituminous coal. Consequently, Korea must 
import nearly all of its needed energy and is the fifth-largest oil importer and the second-
largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world. The total primary consumption 
in 2015 was 272.7 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), increasing by 4.4% a year since 
1990. Although primary energy consumption is dominated by oil and coal, nuclear power 
and LNG also supply a significant share of the country’s primary energy. The strongest 
growth occurred in natural gas (11.3% per year), followed by renewable energy (9.1% per 
year), coal (4.7% per year), and nuclear (4.7% per year). Oil has increased at a relatively 
slower 2.9% per year.
The total final energy consumption in 2015 was 174.2 Mtoe, increasing at an average 
annual rate of 4% from that in 1990. The industry sector accounted for 28.2% of final 
energy consumption in 2015, followed by non-energy (27.2%) and transport (19.2%). 
CHAPTER 9
Kyung-Jin Boo, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea 


165
While consumption of coal and oil has gradually decreased, natural gas in the final energy 
consumption rapidly grew at a rate of 14.9% per year between 1990 and 2015.
In 2015, electric power generation in Korea amounted to 549.2 terawatt-hours (TWh), 
with coal and nuclear combined providing nearly three-fourths of the country’s electricity, 
followed by natural gas, sharing 22.4% of generation. Total electricity consumption has 
grown at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 6.8% between 1990 and 2015. When 
broken down by fuel, coal, natural gas, and nuclear grew by an average annual rate of 
10.9%, 10.7%, and 4.7%, respectively, between 1990 and 2015. Over the same period, 
oil and hydro, however, recorded negative annual growth rates of -1.6% and -4.3%, 
respectively. Meanwhile, other energy sources such as new and renewable energy (NRE) 
rapidly grew at an annual rate of 44.7%.
Since the 1990s, the Korean government has established five, Basic Plans for Rational 
Energy Use, which are being revised every 5 years and contain various policy tools and 
programmes developed and implemented under the auspices of the Ministry of Trade, 
Industry, and Energy. Several energy savings measures were announced to encourage 
the public to voluntarily conserve energy. As part of the measures, voluntary energy 
conservation campaigns were launched to reduce heating and fuel consumption. 
Furthermore, the government urged energy-intensive industries to enhance the energy 
efficiency of their products. In addition, the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy and 
the Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea formed a task force to examine 660 public and 
private organisations to measure their progress in implementing voluntary energy saving 
plans.
The current ‘Fifth Basic Plan for Rational Energy Use (2013–2017)’ encompasses various 
key policy tools and programmes to attain the country’s energy savings target. Amongst 
them are voluntary agreements, energy audits, energy service companies, appliance 
labelling and standards, fuel economy, and public transit and mode shifting. These policy 
tools have played and will continue to play important roles in energy savings.
2. Modelling Assumptions
Korea’s GDP grew at an average annual rate of 5% between 1990 and 2015. In this report, 
Korea’s GDP is assumed to grow at an AAGR of 2.4% from 2015 to 2040 as shown in figure 
9.1. Affected by the 2008–2009 global economic slowdown, the Korean economy has 
been a bit shaken. However, the economy is still in good shape and its economic growth 
is expected to recover to 2.9% per year from 2015 to 2020, slowing down to 2.2% per year 
between 2020 and 2040. 
Republic of Korea Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Korea is expected to continue to rely heavily on coal and nuclear energy for power 
generation to meet the baseload. Gas-fired power generation is projected to increase 
from 2013 to 2040, while oil-fired generation is projected to decline. Generation from 
hydro sources is projected to remain relatively stable. Also projected is a strong growth 
in electricity generation from wind power and solar photovoltaics driven by renewable 
portfolio standards, which were launched in January 2012.
Korea’s energy-saving goals can be attained by implementing energy efficiency 
improvement programmes in all energy sectors. In the industry sector, energy savings are 
expected from the expansion of voluntary agreements, the highly efficient equipment 
programme, and the development of alternative energy and improvements in efficient 
technologies. The transport sector aims to save energy by enhancing the efficiency of the 
logistics system, expanding public transport, and improving the fuel economy of vehicles. 
In the residential/commercial (‘others’) sector, the minimum energy efficiency standards 
programme is projected to induce huge savings in addition to ‘e-Standby Korea 2010.’1 
Figure 9.1: Assumptions for GDP and Population (1990–2040)
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Author.
0
0
500
20
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
1,000
30
1,500
40
2,000
50
2, 500
60
Population
GDP
US$ billion 2010
million persons
1 
The Korea Energy Agency introduced the ‘E-Standby Korea’ programme, which urges the manufacturers to minimise 
standby power and select sleep mode during the standby. It is a voluntary agreement. 


167
Republic of Korea Country Report
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Final Energy Consumption
Korea’s final energy consumption grew 4.4% per year, from 64.9 Mtoe in 1990 to 174.2 
Mtoe in 2015.2 The non-energy sector had the highest growth rate during this period 
at 8.1% per year, followed by the industry sector with 4.0%. Energy consumption in the 
residential/commercial/public (‘others’) sector had grown at a relatively slow pace 
of 2.4% per year. Oil was the most consumed product, with a share of 67.3% in 1990, 
declining to 51.8% in 2015. The share of coal in the final energy consumption declined by 
11.3% between 1990 and 2015 whereas the energy share of electricity had doubled to be 
the second-largest consumed product.
Business-As-Usual Scenario
With an assumption of low economic and population growth, final energy consumption in 
Korea is projected to increase at a low average rate of 0.7% a year between 2015 and 2040 
under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario as shown in figure 9.2. This is largely due 
to the negative growth in energy consumption in the transport sector, which is projected 
to decrease at an AAGR of -0.01% between 2015 and 2040. The growth in final energy 
consumption is expected to be led by the ‘others’ and industry sectors up to 2020 at 1.4% 
and 1.2% per year, respectively, then be taken over by the non-energy sectors such as the 
residential/commercial, and public sectors at 1.0% thereafter up to 2040. Nevertheless, 
all sectors are expected to slow down at a rate less than 0.8%, or a negative average growth 
rate per year except for the ‘others’ sectors.
2 
Energy consumption is calculated based on the net calorific values as converted by The Institute of Energy 
Economics, Japan from original data submitted by the Republic of Korea.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Final energy consumption by energy type is expected to be patterned after energy 
consumption by sector as shown in figure 9.3. The AAGR shows -0.1% for coal, 0.3% for 
oil, 1.3% for natural gas, 1.2% for electricity, and 0.3% for heat over the 2015–2040 period. 
Coal and oil consumption is expected to peak around 2020, then gradually decrease 
thereafter, showing a negative growth rate. Heat energy consumption is anticipated to 
follow the same pattern as oil because of the expected decrease in population and the 
changing lifestyle oriented towards using more electricity for heating. The case of oil is 
more like due to the decreasing energy consumption in the transport sector caused by an 
increasing deployment of electrical vehicles. Other energy types, including NRE, show 
a growth rate of 1.8% a year, faster than natural gas, electricity, and heat. The use of 
renewable energy, in addition to natural gas, will increase as clean and green energy will 
considerably contribute to reduced CO2 emissions.
Figure 9.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
174
185
200
206
127
65
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Mtoe


169
Figure 9.3: Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
174
185
200
206
127
65
Mtoe
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Heat
Others
Alternative Policy Scenarios 
This section discusses the five alternative scenarios developed based on the focus of 
policy options: (i) improved efficiency of final energy demand (APS1), (ii) more efficient 
thermal power generation (APS2), (iii) higher contribution of renewable energy to 
total supply (APS3), (iv) contribution of nuclear energy to total supply (APS4), and (v) 
combined effects of APS1 to APS4 (APS5). 
Figure 9.4 shows final energy demand by sector in each APS. Total final energy demand is 
to be reduced in the case of APS1 (improved efficiency) and APS5 (combined effects of 
APS1 to APS 4) at 192.6 Mtoe, 13.1 Mtoe or 5.2% lower than that in BAU. APS2, APS3, 
and APS4 show 205.7 Mtoe. The total amount and share of final energy demand by sector 
are the same as those of the BAU scenario. Accordingly, APS5 which is a combination of 
all APSs shows 192.6 Mtoe, 19.7 Mtoe or 9.5% lower than in the BAU scenario, the same 
as in APS1.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Final energy demand by energy type is shown in Figure 9.5. In APS1 (improved efficiency), 
oil accounts for 5.9 Mtoe of energy savings, the largest energy savings, followed by 
electricity (4.8 Mtoe) and natural gas (1.7 Mtoe). In terms of percentage, electricity 
shows the largest (8.3%), followed by oil and natural gas, both at 6.0%. APS2, APS3, and 
APS4 are identical in terms of energy demand by energy source, and APS1 and APS5 are 
identical in terms of total energy demand, share of energy demand by sector, and energy 
source.
In APS5, final energy consumption is projected to increase at an AAGR of 0.4%, from 
174.2 Mtoe in 2015 to 192.6 Mtoe in 2040. Energy demand in the transport sector is 
projected to decrease at an AAGR of -2.7% over the same period, whereas other sectors 
have increased energy consumption over the same period. The rate of growth is much 
slower across all sectors, except for the industry sector, compared to the BAU scenario 
(Figure 9.6). The non-energy sector shows an AAGR of 1.0%, followed by the ‘others’ 
sector at 0.4%, and the industry sector at 0.3%.
Figure 9.4: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
205.7
205.7
205.7
192.6
192.6
205.7
61.3
61.3
61.3
61.3
61.3
61.3
49.2
49.2
28.9
28.9
53.2
53.2
53.8
53.8
53.8
53.8
33.5
33.5
33.5
33.5
57.1
57.1
57.1
57.1
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Mtoe


171
Figure 9.5: Final Energy Consumption by Energy, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
53.0
53.0
4.4
4.4
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
57.8
2%
8.3%
6.0%
6.0%
4.4%
57.8
57.8
57.8
26.7
26.7
92.0
92.0
28.4
28.4
28.4
28.4
97.9
97.9
97.9
97.9
11.4
10.9
10.9
11.4
11.4
11.4
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
Electricity
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Heat
Others
Mtoe
Figure 9.6: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
40
30
20
10
60
70
0
–13.5%
–8.5%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–7%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.  Primary Energy Demand
The primary energy demand in Korea had increased at an average rate of 4.4%, from 92.9 
Mtoe in 1990 to 272.7 Mtoe in 2015. Amongst the major energy sources, natural gas grew 
the fastest at an average annual rate of 11.3%. The next was coal (4.7%), followed by oil 
(29%) and nuclear (4.7%) over the same period. Other energy sources, mainly renewable 
energy such as solar, wind, biomass, and ocean energy, have been rapidly growing at a 
rate of 9.1% over the same period. This indicates that the Korean government has been 
successfully implementing its ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ and, Energy New Industry’ 
policies initiated by previous administrations.
Business-As-Usual Scenario
In the BAU scenario, the primary energy demand in Korea is projected to increase at an 
average annual rate of 0.4%, from 272.7 Mtoe in 2015 to 303.5 Mtoe in 2040. Growth in 
all energy sources is projected to slow down. While the consumption of natural gas shows 
the fastest growth with a rate of 2.2% per year, coal and oil show much slower AAGRs of 
0.5% and 0.2%, respectively, over the period 2015–2040. The growth in natural gas will 
largely be at the expense of nuclear, with the share of nuclear declining from 15.7% in 
2015 to 6.2% in 2040.
Figure 9.7: Primary Energy Supply by Energy Type, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Geothermal
Others
93
188
273
287
304
304
Mtoe


173
Alternative Policy Scenario
Based on the projection and analysis in the final energy demand by sector and by energy 
source, primary energy demand is projected in figure 9.8 for all five scenarios. Unlike in final 
energy demand, each APS has a different amount and share by energy source depending 
on a specific policy focus of each APS. Except for APS4 (contribution of nuclear energy 
to total supply), APS1, APS2, and APS3 have primary energy demand less than the BAU 
scenario. Amongst those APSs, APS1 (improved efficiency of final energy demand) is the 
lowest, 281.8 Mtoe, 7.1% lower than that in the BAU scenario, APS3 (higher contribution 
of renewable energy to total supply) follows at 298.6 Mtoe; and APS2 (more efficient 
thermal power generation), at 299.4 Mtoe. In APS1, the largest reduction is in the demand 
for coal, 9.9%, followed by natural gas (8.9%), and oil (6.0%). Nuclear is to be the same as 
in the BAU scenario, but others (renewable energy) are to increase by 6.6%.
In APS5, which combines APS1 to APS4, primary energy demand is projected to increase 
at a lower rate of 0.1% per year, from 272.7 Mtoe in 2015 to 279.3 Mtoe in 2040. The 
consumption of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, will gradually decrease in 2015–2040 
whereas that of clean energy such as natural gas, nuclear, and others (NRE) will increase 
by 1.1%, 0.2%, and 4.4% per year, respectively, over the projection period (Figure 9.7). 
Aggressive implementation of energy efficiency and conservation measures on the 
demand side, along with a larger uptake of renewable energy on the supply side, will be 
the main contributors to reduced consumption of fossil fuels.
Figure 9.8: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0,0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
303.5
15.2
18.8
18.8
18.8
18.8
44.6
44.6
15.3
15.2
19.1
18.9
67.6
61.6
66.5
64.7
60.8
51.2
102.5
109.1
109.1
109.0
108.9
102.2
92.3
83.2
89.3
86.6
78.6
61.8
281.8
299.4
298.6
308.6
279.3
vs BAU
25.7%
137.2%
24.3%
33.0%
6.3%
Mtoe
15.2
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Projected Energy Savings
Major energy policy approaches to reduce energy demand in Korea are as follows: 
1. Shift of energy policy from a supply-oriented approach to a demand-oriented one. 
More than anything else, reform in energy pricing and energy taxation is a most 
pressing issue. In this context, market mechanisms should be introduced in energy 
pricing where rational energy use is induced by sharing information on the full cost of 
energy production and consumption. 
2. Transformation of industrial structure into a less energy-intensive one, currently under 
way, should be accelerated towards knowledge-based, service, and green industries, 
which consume less and clean energies. 
3. Application of energy efficiency standards and codes in product design and production 
processes as well as in designing and constructing a system such as factories, buildings, 
and plants. Under these policy directions, the Korean government should develop 
and implement an action plan that contains milestones and strategies with specific 
and cost-effective policy tools.
The energy savings that could be derived from the energy saving targets, action plans, 
and policy tools in Korea briefly mentioned in the previous paragraph is 24.19 Mtoe, the 
difference between primary energy demand in the BAU scenario and the APS in 2040 
(Figure 9.9). This is equivalent to only 2.4% increase compared to the primary energy 
consumption in 2015. Figure 9.10 shows the energy savings potential by energy source. 
Amongst energy sources, coal has the largest reduction in energy demand, -33.1%, 
followed by natural gas (-24.3%) and oil (-6.4%). In contrast, other energy sources, such 
as nuclear and renewable energy, will increase by 86.2% than in the BAU scenario, whose 
major contributor is renewable energy.


175
Figure 9.9: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
295
290
285
280
275
270
265
260
300
305
310
255
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
24.19 Mtoe, –8%
Figure 9.10: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60
40
20
100
80
120
0
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
Mtoe
+86.2%
–33.1%
–6.4%
–24.3%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.3.  CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy consumption are projected to increase at 
an AAGR of 0.4%, from 158.7 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 176.7 Mt-C in 
2040 based on the BAU scenario. Such a growth rate is slower than that in primary energy 
consumption. This indicates that Korea will be using less carbon-intensive fuels – such as 
nuclear, natural gas, and renewable energy – and employing more energy-efficient green 
technologies.
In the APS, CO2 emissions are projected to decline at an AAGR of -0.7% between 2015 
and 2040. The difference in CO2 emissions between the BAU scenario and the APS is 
49.31 Mt-C or -27.0% (Figure 9.11). To attain such an ambitious target, the government 
must develop and implement cost-effective and consensus-based action plans to save 
energy and reduce CO2 emissions. 
Figure 9.11: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, 
BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon. 
Source: Author’s calculation.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
160
180
200
0
Million Tons of Oil Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
–49.31Mt-C, –27,0%


177
3.4.  Energy and Carbon Intensity
As a result of energy savings, the energy intensity of GDP is projected to improve (Figure 
9.12). In the BAU scenario, energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/thousand 
2010 US$) is projected to be reduced from 0.197 down to 0.123, indicating a 37.7% 
improvement. In the APS, it was accelerated by 42.8%. Energy intensity in the APS is 8.2% 
below that in the BAU scenario. Carbon intensity is also projected to improve in both the 
BAU scenario and the APS mainly due to the reduction in primary energy consumption 
in terms of energy intensity. Improvement in carbon intensity, CO2 emissions per unit 
of GDP (t-C/thousand 2010 US),ismoresalientthanthatinenergyintensity.Itisprojectedtobereducedfrom0.113downto0.080and0.059t−C/thousand2010US 
for the BAU scenario and APS, 36.0% and 52.8%, respectively. Carbon intensity in the 
APS is 26.3% below that in the BAU scenario.
Figure 9.12: Energy and Carbon Intensities (1990–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
0
1990
1990
2000
2000
2015
2015
2020
2020
2025
2025
2030
2030
2035
2035
2040
2040
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
Toe/thousand US2010T−C/thousandUS 2010
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
8.2%
26.3%
0.246
0.265
0.215
0.173
0.166
0.125
0.105
0.084
0.074
0.064
0.059
0.113
0.101
0.090 0.085
0.080
0.197
0.177
0.160
0.146
0.134
0.194
0.172
0.152
0.137
0.123
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
Without any domestic energy resources economically available, Korea has been importing 
97% of the energy needed for economic growth. Thus, Korea’s top policy agenda on energy 
is energy security, that is, how to maintain a stable energy supply to keep the economy 
going. However, on entering the 21st century, the Korean government shifted its energy 
policy into a sustainable, efficient, and energy-saving approach, which was to some extent 
reflected in the first (2009) and second (2014) National Energy Basic Plan. 
Korea’s total primary and final energy consumption in the 1990s had rapidly increased at a 
rate faster than that of GDP whose growth was driven by energy-intensive industries, such 
as the petrochemical, steel, and cement industries. Since 1997, the contribution of these 
industries to Korea’s GDP has gradually declined, resulting in reduced energy intensity. 
However, the shift to a less energy-intensive industrial structure takes time, indicating 
that energy-intensive industries will prevail in the short to medium term. However, Korea 
will and must transform its industrial structure into a less energy-intensive one in the 
longer term.
The Second National Energy Basic Plan3 released in 2014 sets the policy approach of 
completely shifting the industrial structure from a supply-oriented into a demand-oriented 
one. Its basic policy direction consists of six major agendas with demand-oriented energy 
policy as a priority. Five other key agendas are to build a distributed generation system, 
an improved sustainable energy policy, to strengthen energy security, an enhanced stable 
energy supply, and to implement an energy policy with people’s support.
As regards the priority of an energy policy shift to a demand-oriented approach, the target 
is to save 13% of the total primary energy consumption along with 15% of electric power 
consumption. Under this agenda, four policy tasks are proposed: (i) reform of energy-
related taxation, (ii) reform of energy pricing, (iii) information and communications 
technology–based demand management, and (iv) strengthen programmes by sector. 
The reform of energy-related taxation as well as energy pricing are intended to induce 
a rational use of electricity by coordinating relative prices between electricity and non-
electricity energy. Additionally, it was proposed that social costs such as nuclear safety, 
reinforcement of transmission lines, and a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 
should be reflected. 
3 
The Korean government worked on the Second National Energy Basic Plan in 2013, releasing its report in early 2014.


179
Another policy agenda includes an approach from the environmental side, namely, setting 
a target of for reduced GHG emissions in response to global climate change. The Korean 
government announced an ambitious, aggressive target to reduce its GHG emissions by 
37% from that of the BAU scenario (850.6 MtCO2e) by 2030 across all economic sectors. 
Out of this target of 37%, 25.7% will be met by domestic activities and the rest, 11.3%, will 
be attained by emissions trade in the international market. It is a proactive response to and 
a fulfilment of its international responsibility for the new climate regime established as a 
follow-up action to the Paris Agreement in December 2015.
Throughout the past 3 decades, the Korean government has been mostly concerned 
with energy security, energy efficiency, and environmental preservation. The energy 
security issue has been dealt with by promoting foreign resource development imports 
and renewable energy development. Energy efficiency improvement has been addressed 
through programmes supported by a series of the Five-Year Basic Plans of Rational Energy 
Use. Relevant offices of the Ministry of Environment have approached the environmental 
issue caused by the consumption of fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Now is the time for 
Korea to synergise those efforts exerted so far by the selection and concentration of 
policy tools and programmes through coordination amongst relevant ministries, as clearly 
specified in the Second National Energy Basic Plan.
In 2017, the new government led by President Moon Jae-In proposed reforms to the 
current energy policy, announcing a new energy policy direction, ‘Energy Transition’, 
which has completely shaken up the existing national energy policy. Energy Transition 
rests on two major energy policy agendas: (i) step-wise reduction of nuclear power plants 
and coal-fired plants (‘de-nuclearisation’ and ‘de-coalisation’ policies), and (ii) expansion 
of renewable energy with the share of renewable electricity raised to 20% by 2030 (RE 
3020). These policy agendas will be reflected in subsequent energy plans: the Eighth 
Electricity Demand and Supply Basic Plan (completed and announced) and the Third 
National Energy Master Plan (under way).
If successfully implemented, Energy Transition will result in a complete turnaround 
from traditional energy based on coal and nuclear power to a sustainable energy system 
based on renewable energy and gas-fired power generation. This change in energy mix, 
nevertheless, does not necessarily signify the end for the nuclear industry in Korea. Recent 
polling suggests that the public is marginally in favour of continued investment in nuclear 
power. In 2017, five nuclear reactor units were being constructed. Keeping nuclear power 
in the energy mix, along with a larger uptake of renewable energy, will give Korea more 
options to meet its Paris Agreement targets which were set by Nationally Determined 
Contributions (NDC).
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The impacts and implications of the reform in the energy mix remain to be seen. Such 
reform calls for a vast amount of investment in rebuilding infrastructure, hardware, 
and software, along with institutional arrangements. It also entails a change not only in 
the energy sector per se but also in the cultural, political, and social domains. Having 
successfully gone through several energy transitions in the past, the Korean government 
is highly confident to go ahead with the current policy goals of transforming into a less 
energy-intensive, greener economic structure and implementing major policy agendas and 
their corresponding policy tools and programmes. Such nationwide efforts and campaigns 
would eventually transform the Korean economy into a less energy-intensive and greener 
one in terms of energy savings and reduced CO2 emissions. Such an achievement will 
position Korea as one of the leading global nations in terms of low-carbon green growth.


181
LAO PDR COUNTRY REPORT
Khamso Kouphokham, Ministry of Energy and Mines, Lao People’s 
Democratic Republic
1.   Background
1.1.  Socio-economic Situation
The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is in the middle of the Southeast Asian 
peninsula.  It is bounded by five countries: China in the north, Viet Nam in the east, 
Cambodia in the south, and Thailand and Myanmar in the west. The Lao PDR has a total 
area of 236,800 square kilometres (km2), about 70% of which is covered by mountains. In 
2015, the country had a population of 6,663,967, with an average population density of 
27 persons/km2. It comprises 18 provinces, with Vientiane as the capital.
Since the country shifted to an open-door economic policy in 1986, its economy has been 
progressing and expanding rapidly.  Gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 increased 
7.56% from the previous year (Lao Statistics Bureau, 2015), increasing to KN 39,647 
billion at 2002 constant prices. This is equivalent to US140,814million,bringingthepercapitaincometoUS1,628. The economy has been gradually changing from agriculture-
oriented activities to a wider range of activities such as services and industry.  For example, 
in 2013, the services sector had a share of 37.9% of the total GDP, while the agriculture 
sector had only 23.5%. The share of the industry sector to GDP was 33.2% in 2013; it 
is expected to have a bigger share in the coming years due to large investments in the 
mineral and hydropower sectors.  
1.2.  Energy Supply–Demand Situation
The Lao PDR is well endowed with renewable energy resources, especially hydropower 
and biomass. Since 1990 hydropower resources are being intensively developed to 
provide electricity for the requirements of the country and its neighbours. Every year 
the Lao PDR receives a significant amount of hard currencies from those power exports, 
widely considered as a driving force to boost socio-economic development and the energy 
security of the country. 
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182
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Lao PDR’s total primary energy consumption (TPEC) in 2013 was 2.47 Mtoe. The energy 
mix consisted of hydro, oil, coal, and biomass. Many power plants in the country generate 
electricity for export, with the export figure reaching 11,548 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 
2013, equivalent to 1.18 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), and accounting for more 
than half of the total power consumed in the country and 73.2% of total hydropower 
generation. Biomass continues to be an important energy source, and is mostly consumed 
in the country. In places where modern energy is inaccessible, Lao people use it as a main 
source for cooking, heating, and many other activities because it is abundant, obtainable 
everywhere, and free. In 2015, 1.30 Mtoe of biomass, representing 13.7% of the TPEC, 
was used. Consumption of oil products was the second largest after biomass. The Lao PDR 
does not have oil refineries; thus, the supply of all oil products has been met by imports 
from Thailand and Viet Nam.  In 2015, the Lao PDR imported 0.99 Mtoe of oil products 
to supply the demand of the transport and the residential/commercial (‘others’) sectors. 
In the same year, 6.49 Mtoe of coal was consumed, mainly by the industry sector, i.e. the 
Hongsa Thermal Power Plant, which is the first and largest coal-fired power plant that 
started operation in 2015.  Therefore, from 2015 onwards, coal demand is expected to 
increase sharply. 
Due to its geographic advantage and its many rivers, the Lao PDR is a rich country in terms 
of hydropower resources. According to the Mekong River Commission Study in 1995, 
the potential of the country’s hydropower resources is 26,000 megawatt-hours (MW). 
However, until 2015, only 3,894 MW (Department of Energy Policy and Planning, 2015) 
or 15% of total potential had been realised. In 2015, it produced around 16,501 GWh 
of electricity (Department of Energy Policy and Planning, 2015). Out of this, 65.7% 
(equivalent to 10,842 GWh) was exported to Thailand, Viet Nam, and Cambodia; the 
remaining was consumed domestically. Power exports are projected to increase sharply 
because of the government’s agreements with neighbouring countries that, by 2020, 
the Lao PDR should export 7,000 MW to Thailand and 5,000 MW to Viet Nam. The 
power sources for export are mainly from hydropower. However, one thermal power 
plant, the Hongsa Thermal Power Plant, which has 1,878 MW of installed capacity and 
three hydropower projects in 2018 are being constructed for export purposes. All projects 
for export purposes are being developed by foreign private investors through the built-
operate-transfer scheme. 
The power sector plays a major role in the energy sector, as well as in the country’s 
economy, as it generates substantial revenues for the country. The revenues may not be 
significant in the short to medium terms, but for the long term, they will be high or will 
increase manyfold because the ownership of private power plants will be transferred to 
the government. The electrification ratio in the Lao PDR is 88.94% in 2015 (Department 
of Energy Policy and Planning, 2015). The government plans to raise the country’s 


183
electrification ratio to 90% by 2020. This plan is amongst the government priorities to 
eradicate poverty in the country. Considering the increase of electricity demand in the Lao 
PDR and power production for export, optimisation of the power sector will be necessary 
for future electricity supply. 
1.3.  Energy Policies
Since the establishment of the Ministry of Energy and Mines in 2006, energy infrastructure 
and legislation have been developed and expanded. Also, the energy policies are developing 
and gaining public attention and support.  The policies gradually evolved from just the 
power sector policy to broader energy policies towards the development of a sustainable 
and environment-friendly energy sector. The improvement of the energy policies could be 
credited to the strong support from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 
and other international organisations, especially the Economic Research Institute for 
ASEAN and East Asia for its continuous cooperation and support on energy policies of 
Cambodia, the Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam to catch up with other ASEAN countries. 
The Lao PDR is a landlocked country in the middle of the Mekong subregion. It is 
surrounded by the three big economies of China, Thailand, and Viet Nam and the two 
medium economies of Myanmar and Cambodia. Thus, the Lao PDR can promote itself 
as a land-linked country to take advantage of its geography. Based on the energy policies 
exchanged in the platform of ASEAN+31 energy cooperation, evidence shows that those 
countries have high energy demand and support the energy trade and power integration in 
this region because it can raise regional energy security and sustainable development. At 
the same time, the Lao PDR has been trading electricity with Thailand for many decades; 
now it expands this policy to other  neighbouring countries to support regional energy 
cooperation. Particularly, the country will increase power exports to 15,000 MW by 2030 
– 10,000 MW to Thailand and 5,000 MW to Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Myanmar.
Apart from international cooperation, the Lao PDR also aims to:  
• 
Increase access to electricity by grid extensions and off-grid rural electrification. 
• 
Maintain an affordable tariff to promote economic and social development.
• 
Increase electrification ratio to more than 95% by 2020.
• 
Promote energy efficiency and conservation.
• 
Make modern energy more affordable and accessible for every Lao citizen even in 
remote areas.
• 
Increase the share of renewable energy in total energy supply by 30% in 2030, including 
to blend 10% of biofuels in the oil supply for the transport sector. 
Lao PDR Country Report
1 
ASEAN countries plus China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea.


184
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
2.   Modelling Assumptions
This study aims to forecast the Lao PDR’s energy growth and demand from a base year of 
2015 to 2040 and to see its energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction potential if it uses 
or implements some Alternative Policy Scenarios (APSs). This study, therefore, uses four 
scenarios as described below: 
• 
Business-As-Usual  (BAU) – a scenario calculated based on the assuming growth of 
GDP, population, and oil price (Table 10.1);
• 
APS 1 – a scenario in which the Lao PDR is implementing energy saving and 
conservation programmes, i. e. reducing energy consumption by 10% during the study 
period (2015–2040);
• 
APS 3 – a scenario in which the Lao PDR is implementing the biofuel programme, 
 
i. e. blending 10% of biofuel with all oil to be consumed in the country during the study 
period;
• 
APS 5 – a scenario that combines APS 1 and APS 3 into one scenario.
3.   Outlook Results
3.1  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1  Final energy demand
In the Lao PDR, final energy consists of coal, oil, electricity, and others. Its total final 
energy consumption (TFEC) increased at an average annual rate of 8.6%, from 1.09 Mtoe 
in 1990 to 9.12 Mtoe in 2015 (Figure 10.1). The growth will continue at a faster rate of 3% 
per year and 6.9% per year in 2015–2020 and 2020–2030, respectively. Then after 2040, 
the TFEC will grow at a slower rate of 4.8% per year.
Table 10.1: Assumption of Annual Average Growth of GDP and Population
Projection Period
GDP Growth, %
Population Growth, %
2015–2020
7.0 
1.5 
2020–2030
6.5 
1.3 
2030–2040
6.0
1.2 
2013–2040
6.0 
1.2 
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Author’s assumptions based on consultation with relevant ministries;


185
For the final energy consumption by sector, the Lao PDR, like other Southeast Asian 
countries, has four sectors that use energy: industry, transport, ‘others’, and non-
energy. The ‘others’ sector covers sub-sectors like residential, agriculture, services, and 
commerce. Between 1990 and 2015, the industry sector registered the highest energy 
use at 22.9% per year, followed by the transport sector which grew at 7.5% per year, while 
the ‘others’ sector grew at the lowest rate of 1.9% per year. The highest growth rate of 
the industry sector continues until 2040. In 1990-2040, the transport sector grew at an 
average annual rate of 2.2%, followed by the ‘others’ (21%) and non-energy (0.9%) sectors. 
The share of final energy consumption by sectors is shown in Figure 10.2.
Figure 10.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector (1990–2040)
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Mtoe
30%
20%
10%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
100%
90%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Figure 10.2: Sectors’ Share in Final Energy Consumption (1990–2040)
Source: Author’s calculation.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
In terms of energy type, coal was mostly used in 2015; it stood at 6.49 Mtoe and shared 
71.1% in the total final energy demand. It is expected to have more than 71% share until the 
end of the study period. For example, coal’s share in the TFEC will be 74.5% in 2020, 78.5% 
in 2025, 76.9% in 2030, 75.0% in 2035, and 85.3% in 2040 (Figure 10.3 and Figure 10.4). 
The year 2015 was a turning point for the TFEC of the Lao PDR. In 1990–2000, Others 
included the residential and commercial sectors and always had the biggest share, 83.8% in 
1990 and 78.2% in 2000. However, in 2015, coal had the biggest share because the Hongsa 
Thermal Power Plant started operation. Other coal-fired power plants are also expected to 
be developed after 2025. From 1990 to 2000, the ‘others’ sector used biomass, which 
consists of fuelwood and charcoal, the most because a majority of Lao people still live in 
rural areas and rely on fuelwood as a main fuel for their cooking. Although using fuelwood 
is inconvenient compared to other energy types like electricity and liquefied petroleum gas, 
which are mostly used for cooking in urban areas, fuelwood costs less. 
Figure 10.3: Fuels’ Share in Total Final Energy Consumption
Source: Author’s calculation.
40%
30%
20%
10%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Others
Electricity
Oil
Coal
Figure 10.4: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Others
Electicity
Oil
Coal
Mtoe


187
Oil is an important energy source for the Lao PDR because the whole transport sector relies 
solely on this fuel. The oil price directly affects the country’s socio-economic development 
because it is part of living and of doing business in the country. However, unlike electricity 
and coal, oil is the only energy that is not produced domestically; it is imported either 
from Thailand or Viet Nam. Therefore, it is worthwhile to closely observe and monitor 
its trend during this study. In 2015, 0.99 Mtoe was consumed and it is projected to grow 
at an average annual rate of 2.1% in 2015–2040. Oil demand is expected to rise from 
0.99 Mtoe in 2015 to 1.09 Mtoe in 2020, 1.21 Mtoe in 2025, 1.35 Mtoe in 2030, 1.50 
Mtoe in 2035, and 1.68 Mtoe in 2040. In terms of  average annual growth rate (AAGR), 
oil is projected to increase at a rate of 2.0% in 2015–2020, 2.1% in 2020–2030, 2.2% in 
2030–2040, and 2.1% in 2015–2040. Compared with coal, electricity, and biomass, coal 
will rank third in 2015–2040. 
3.1.2  Primary energy supply
The country’s primary energy supply consists of coal, oil, hydro, and others. Others 
cover biomass, biofuels, and exported electricity. The Lao PDR’s total primary energy 
consumption (TPEC) increased at an average annual rate of 8.6%, from 1.20 Mtoe in 1990 
to 9.49 Mtoe in 2015 (Figure 10.5). The growth is expected to continue at a faster rate 
of 7.2% per year in 2015–2020 because a big amount of coal has been used since 2015 
for a thermal power plant. The TPEC growth rate is then projected to continue at a slower 
rate of 3.3% per year during 2020–2030 and at a faster rate again of 7.1% in 2030–2040. 
However, primary energy is forecasted to grow at a rate of 5.6% per year in 2015–2040.
In 2015, coal was the energy used the most (7.04 Mtoe), followed by hydro (1.33 Mtoe) 
and biomass (1.3 Mtoe). The reason for coal being used the most is the beginning of 
the operation of the Hongsa Thermal Power Plant. This plant will also increase coal 
consumption at a high rate of 10.6% in 2015–2020, and its share in the TPEC will increase 
from 74.3% in 2015 to 86.8% in 2020. Coal’s share is projected to continuously have a 
higher percentage of more than 86% until 2040. 
In 2015, 1.33 Mtoe of hydro with a 14.1% share in the TPEC was used; it is expected to 
increase to 2.42 Mtoe at 18% TPEC share in 2020. Its AAGR is forecast to reach 2.2% 
in between 2015 and 2040, so hydro demand will increase to 2.30 Mtoe by 2040. The 
increase in hydro is due to the country’s intensive development of hydropower projects 
to meet increasing domestic demand and to export 7,000 MW to Thailand by 2025 and 
5,000 MW to Viet Nam by 2030 per agreement.
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Biomass is also used a lot in the Lao PDR because it is a cheaper fuel for cooking and is 
the main fuel for most rural people.  In 1990, 1.01 Mtoe of biomass was used and this 
increased to 1.30 Mtoe in 2015. It is projected to increase to 1.39 Mtoe in 2020, 1.48 
Mtoe in 2025, 1.56 Mtoe in 2030, 1.66 Mtoe in 2035, and 1.75 Mtoe in 2040. In terms 
of its growth rate, like the projection of biomass in final energy, it is also estimated to grow 
at 1.2% between 2015 and 2040.
The demand for oil has been experiencing a high growth in the Lao PDR. Many people 
can afford to buy private cars for their daily commute, thus, significantly increasing the 
number of vehicles. Until 2015, the country did not have any refinery, and all oil products 
were imported. More than 20 oil companies did business in the Lao PDR, and they were 
authorised to import and sell oil in the country. In 1990, only 0.16 Mtoe of oil was used. Oil 
usage increased at an AAGR of 7.5% in 1990–2015 and with a 13.6% share in the TPEC in 
1990.  It increased from 0.28 Mtoe in 2000 to  0.99 Mtoe in 2015.  Its share in the TPEC 
also went down from 17.2% in 2000 to 10.4% in 2015; it is projected to have shares of 
8.1% in 2020, 6.7% in 2025, 7.3% in 2030, 7.9% in 2035, and 4.6% in 2040 (Figure 10.6). 
However, in terms of the AAGR, oil, being the fourth energy source, is expected to have a 
rate of 2.1% per year after those of coal, electricity (exported), and hydro between 2015 
and 2040.
Apart from the primary energy described above that are related to those that could be 
produced domestically and imported from its neighbours, the Lao PDR still exports a 
significant amount of electricity to Viet Nam, Cambodia, and mostly to Thailand. Figure 
10.5 shows that ‘others’ show negative signs from 1990 onwards because the exported 
electricity is greater than biomass. The Lao PDR has been exporting power to Thailand 
since Nam Ngum Dam started operation in 1971; later, many power plants followed suit. 
The exported figures increased from 0.05 Mtoe in 1990 to 1.18 Mtoe in 2015. Exported 
electricity is also projected to increase to 3.12 Mtoe in 2020, 2.38 Mtoe in 2025, 3.02 
Mtoe in 2030, 2.88 Mtoe in 2035, and 5.24 Mtoe in 2040. Although the AAGR of 
electricity for export showed a high rate of 21.4% per year in 1990–2020, it is forecasted 
to grow only at a rate of 6.1% per year in 2015–2020.


189
Figure 10.5: Primary Energy Supply by Source
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation
20.00
10.00
(10,00)
30.00
40.00
50.00
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Others
Hydro
Oil
Coal
Mtoe
Figure 10.6: Fuels’ Share in Primary Energy Supply
Source: Author’s calculation.
40%
20%
–20%
60%
80%
100%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Others
Hydro
Oil
Coal
3.1.3  Power generation
The history of Lao PDR’s power generation can be divided into periods. The first period is 
1970–2015, during which all power is generated from one source like hydropower. The 
second period is after 2015, during which the country has both hydro and thermal power 
plants because the Hongsa Lignite Power Plant started operation in 2015. In 1990, the 
Lao PDR produced only 0.82 TWh of electricity, then increased to 3.44 TWh in 2000 and 
to 17.76 TWh in 2015. Its generation is forecasted to increase to 41.12 TWh in 2020. 
The outputs of power generation are estimated to go up dramatically from 2015 to 2040; 
they are forecasted to reach 33.63 TWh in 2025, 42.32 TWh in 2030, 42.32 TWh in 
2035, and 71.86 TWh in 2040 (Figure 10.7). All power generated before 2015 was from 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
hydropower sources. Over that period, power generation grew at an AAGR of 13.1%. This 
rate is then expected to be greater than 18.3% in 2015–2020, at 0.3% in 2020–2030, and 
at 5.4% in 2030–2040. Because of the first thermal power plant being put into operation 
in 2015, the power generation mix in the Lao PDR has changed since 2015 (Figures 10.7 
and 10.8). For example, in 2015, out of the output of power generation, hydropower 
plants are projected to share 87.3%, while the thermal power plant will share 12.7% of 
total generation. Hydropower plants are forecasted to continue to have the bigger share 
over the thermal power plant until 2020.
Figure 10.7: Electricity Generation in 2040
TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation
30.00
10.00
20.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Hydro
Coal
TWh
Figure 10.8: Technologies’ Share in Electricity Generation (1990–2040)
Source: Author’s calculation.
40%
30%
20%
10%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Hydro
Coal


191
3.2  Energy Saving and CO2 Reduction Potential (APS)
For this study, the Lao PDR uses three APSs for its energy saving and CO2 reduction 
potential: (i) EEC scenario (APS1), (ii) development of renewable energy (APS3), and 
(iii) APS5 that combines APS1 and APS3. These three APSs yield the following changes. 
First, the TPEC of APS1 amounting to 2.76 Mtoe has decreased; compared with the BAU 
scenario, it declined from 35.055 Mtoe in the BAU scenario to 32.289 Mtoe in APS1. 
Second, there is no change in primary energy consumption of APS3. Third, primary 
energy consumption of APS5 has been reduced to the same amount as APS1. The 10% 
reduction in the TPEC mainly comes from the implementation of EEC programmes. All 
existing primary energies such as coal, oil, hydro, and others are reduced (Figure 10.10).
3.1.4  Energy indicators
In 2020, the Lao PDR’s primary energy intensity (TPES/GDP) will reach the highest level 
of 1,872 toe/million 2010 USandisexpectedtodeclineto1,076toe/million2010US in 2035 (Figure 10.9). Similarly, final energy intensity will decline even lower; from 
1,791 toe/million 2010 USin2020,itwilldecreaseto888toe/million2010US 
in 2035. This indicates that energy consumers are implementing energy efficiency and 
conservation (EEC) programmes. 
Figure 10.9: Energy Intensity and Other Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
Source: Author’s calculations.
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
0
9,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
10,000
1990=100
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 per Intensity
CO2 per Capita
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 10.10: Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
20.0
10.0
0.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
-10.0
Mtoe
BAU
APS1
APS3
APS5
Coal
Hydro
Others
Oil
Figure 10.11 shows no change in power generation from the BAU scenario to APS1, APS3, 
and APS5.
Figure 10.12 illustrates energy saving potential amounting to 2.797 million tons of carbon 
(Mt-C) in APS1 and APS5. CO2 emissions declined from 40.943 Mt-C in the BAU 
scenario to 38.146 Mt-C in APS1 and to 38.146 Mt-C in APS5. This reduction is a result 
of the EEC programmes.
Figure 10.11: Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation
30.0
10.0
20.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
0.0
BAU
APS1
APS3
APS5
Hydro
Coal
TWh


193
3.2.1  Final energy consumption
For trends of final energy demand of the BAU scenario and the APS in each sector, 
the model shows that, in APS1, final energy demand is expected to increase from 9.19 
Mtoe in 2015 to 26.65 Mtoe in 2040. Industry demonstrates the highest trends both in 
consumption and share in the TFEC in 2015–2040. This dominance of industry in the 
TFEC is due to the high use of coal in the Hongsa Thermal Power Plant and other coal-
fired power plants that have operated since 2015. In APS1, industry consumed 6.70 
Mtoe of energy in 2015, and is forecast to consume 7.80 Mtoe in 2020, 10.72 Mtoe in 
2025, 10.76 Mtoe in 2030, 10.78 Mtoe in 2035, and 22.94 Mtoe in 2040. Likewise, it 
always keeps larger shares throughout the study period, i.e. 73.5% in 2015, 76.4% in 2020, 
80.0% in 2025, 78.3% in 2030, 76.5% in 2035, and 86.1% in 2040. Industry also shows 
the highest growth rate per year in 2015–2040 during which it is expected to grow at 5% 
per year. After industry, the ‘others’ sector is forecast to use the most energy for the study 
period: 1.44 Mtoe in 2020, 1.59 Mtoe in 2025, 1.76 Mtoe in 2030, 1.96 Mtoe in 2035, 
and 2.20 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 10.13).
For the AAGR, APS1 is expected to grow more slowly than in the BAU scenario in 2015–
2040. The growth rate is forecast to be 4.8% per year in the BAU scenario and 4.4% in APS1.
For final energy demand by fuel, similar to the BAU scenario, in APS1 coal also showed a 
majority share of 71.1% in 2015. It is forecast to increase gradually to 78.4% in 2025, decline 
gradually to 76.8% in 2030 and to 74.9% in 2035, then go up again to 85.2% in 2040.
Figure 10.13 shows that, in 2040, the final energy demand in industry is expected to be 
reduced from the BAU scenario to the APS at 10.0%; in transport, 9.0%; ‘others’, 10.0%; 
and non-energy, 4.6%.
Figure 10.12: Comparison of Scenarios to Carbon Emissions in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculation.
37.0
35.0
36.0
38.0
39.0
40.0
41.0
42.0
34.0
BAU
APS1
APS3
APS5
Oil
Coal
Mt-C
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 10.13: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60.0
40.0
20.0
100.0
80.0
120.0
0.0
–9.0%
–10.0%
Mtoe
–4.6%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–10.0%
3.2.2  Primary energy consumption
In APS1, 9.49 Mtoe of primary energy was consumed in 2015; it is expected to increase 
to 12.30 Mtoe in 2020, 17.05 Mtoe in 2030, and 33.87 Mtoe in 2040. In terms of the 
AAGR, primary energy grew at 8.6% per year between 1990 and 2015. It is expected to 
grow at 5.3% in 2015–2020, 3.3% in 2020–2030, and 7.1% in 2030–2040. But for 2015–
2040, primary energy is expected to increase at 5.2%.
Figure 10.14 shows that, by comparing the BAU scenario and the APS in 2040, coal and 
oil are expected to decrease by 6.9% and 9.0, respectively. However, ‘others’ is forecast to 
increase by 9.7% because of the increase in power exports to Lao PDR’s neighbours.


195
3.2.3  Projected energy savings
Figure 10.15 shows that, in 2040, primary energy is expected to decrease from the 
BAU scenario to the APS by 2.34 Mtoe or 6.3%. This decrease in the TPEC is due to 
implementation of the 10% reduction in energy consumption from 2015 to 2030.
Figure 10.14: Primary Energy Demand by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-5.0
-10.0
35.0
30.0
40.0
0.0
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
Mtoe
–9.7%
–6.9%
–9.0%
Figure 10.15: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
0.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
2.34 Mtoe,-6.3%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.4  Energy intensities
As the Lao PDR endeavours to move towards an efficient and competitive economy and 
promote sustainable development, energy intensity for both final and primary energy has 
been reduced significantly. Final energy intensity is projected to decrease from 1,791 
toe/million 2010 USin2015to1,279.2toe/million2010US in 2040. Primary energy 
intensity is expected to decline from 1,862.1 toe/million 2010 USin2015to1,591.7toe/million2010US in 2040. Figures 10.16 and 10.17 show that energy intensity in 
APS5 is less than that in the BAU scenario. This is due to the implementation of the 10% 
energy saving from 2015 to 2030. However, Figure 10.17 shows an increase in energy 
intensity between 2035 and 2040 because of the end of the energy savings programme.
Figure 10.16: Final Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, toe = tons of oil.
Source: Author’s calculation.
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
-
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
2,000
toe/million 2010 US$
BAU
APS5


197
3.2.5  CO2 emissions from energy consumption
By reducing energy consumption by 10%, the Lao PDR can reduce CO2 emissions by 2.8 
Mt-C (or 6.8%) in the APS in 2040 (Figure 10.18 ).
Figure 10.17: Primary Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, toe = tons of oil.
Source: Author’s calculation.
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
-
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
2,000
toe/million 2010 US$
BAU
APS5
Figure 10.18: CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU vs. APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
0.0
Million Tons of Oil Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
2.8 Mtoe,-6.8%
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4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
In this study, the Lao PDR will achieve energy savings mainly through the implementation 
of the government’s renewable EEC programmes.  The programmes consist of an increase 
of the renewable energy share in total energy supply by 30% by 2025, 10% of biofuels in 
oil supply for the transport sector, and the reduction of 10% in energy consumption in all 
sectors.
To reduce both the TPEC and the TFEC, as well as CO2 emissions, the Lao PDR should 
extend the implementation of the renewable EEC programmes until 2040. As these 
programmes are most important in reducing energy, these should be proposed as a 
national policy.  At the same time, it should implement sound projects and programmes. 
The industry sector should implement an energy management system, develop and 
implement its own energy saving or reduction plans, cooperate with the government 
on energy security, and regularly conduct seminars on energy-saving measures. The 
transport sector should increase public transport in big cities and conduct campaigns to 
promote the use of public transport. The ‘others’ sector should raise public awareness in 
energy conservation and implement energy management systems in the building sector. 
In addition, a study on the correlation between GDP and energy consumption should be 
carried out and energy statistics should be improved accordingly. The government should 
also consider the following:
1. Implement EEC programmes in all sectors.
2. Establish an EEC fund (like that of Thailand) to support EEC programmes and energy-
saving companies. 
3. Increase public transport and use electric vehicles (including public buses and tuk-
tuks) to reduce oil imports, CO2 emissions, and worsening traffic congestion.
4. Reform electricity tariff to encourage more EEC activities, e.g. time of use  pricing.
5. Increase the share of coal thermal power generation in the power generation mix by 
using local coal and clean coal technology to stabilise electricity supply.
6. Promote power trade within ASEAN.
References
Department of Energy Policy and Planning (2015), Electricity Statistics Yearbook. Ministry 
of Energy and Mines.
Lao Statistics Bureau (2015), Statistical Yearbook 2015, Vientiane: Lao Statistics Bureau, 
Ministry of Planning and Investment, Lao PDR. www.lsb.gov.la.


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MALAYSIA COUNTRY REPORT
1.   Introduction
Malaysia is in Southeast Asia. Its 329,847 square kilometres of territory comprise 
Peninsular Malaysia and the Sabah and Sarawak States on the island of Borneo. Malaysia 
has a tropical, humid climate with temperatures averaging 30oC. Its gross domestic 
product (GDP) grew steadily over the last 26 years, growing at an average of 5.7% per year 
from 1990 to 2016, except for sluggish growth in 1998 due to the Asian financial crisis 
and in 2001 due to slow growth of export demand for electronic products. The country 
also experienced the latest downward economy trend in 2009 due to the world economic 
crisis.
Malaysia is well endowed with conventional energy resources such as oil, gas, and coal, as 
well as renewables such as hydro, biomass, and solar energy. Crude oil and condensates 
reserves in the country stood at 5.03 billion barrels or 21 years of lifespan as of 1 January 
2016, supported by the rising reserves from the deep-water discoveries in offshore Sabah. 
Meanwhile, natural gas reserves are at 87.76 trillion standard cubic feet (Tscf), enough to 
cover 37 years of gas output at current production levels. As of January 2015, reserves of 
coal stood at 1,983.37 million tons. In terms of energy equivalent, Malaysia’s gas reserves 
are four times the size of its crude oil reserves. Natural gas reserves off the east coast of 
Peninsular Malaysia are dedicated for domestic consumption while those in Sarawak are 
allocated as revenue earner in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Malaysia 
is a net energy exporter. 
During the last 10 years, some of the barriers to the uptake of energy efficiency and 
renewable energy have been removed. But there is room for further improvement and 
progress. The challenge would be to give renewable energy the necessary lift to greater 
heights in the next 5 years. Efforts to promote energy efficiency should be intensified. 
In addition, climate change, which is inextricably linked with energy use, has become 
increasingly important, as people begin to appreciate the implications of an increased risk 
of unpredictable, severe weather and rapid changes to the ecosystem. Thus, the need to 
CHAPTER 11
Zaharin Zulkifli, Energy Commission of Malaysia


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
work towards a truly sustainable energy future becomes more compelling. A sustainable 
energy system is central to meeting the economic goals of Malaysia. Malaysia’s levels 
of energy use per unit of production (intensity) are high compared to other nations. A 
national strategy aimed at reducing energy intensity must be drawn up. Energy planning 
must recognise that the place to begin is not only with supply but also the management 
of demand for energy services, by increasing energy efficiency and the use of renewable 
energy sources to meet any remaining demand. To pursue the green growth stated in the 
Eleventh Malaysia Plan, KeTTHA1 launched the Green Technology Master Plan (GTMP) 
in 2017 to earmark green growth as one of the six game changers that would alter the 
trajectory of the economy’s growth. The GTMP creates a framework for facilitating the 
mainstreaming of green technology into the planned development of Malaysia while 
encompassing the four pillars set out in the plan. 
Throughout the years, the government of Malaysia has formulated some policies and 
programmes on energy to ensure the long-term reliability and security of energy supply 
for sustainable socio-economic development in the country. The major energy policies 
implemented in the country are:
• 
Petroleum Development Act (1974)
• 
National Petroleum Policy (1975)
• 
National Energy Policy (1979)
• 
National Depletion Policy (1980)
• 
Four-Fuel Diversification Policy (1981)
• 
Fifth Fuel Policy (2000)
• 
Biofuel Policy (2006)
• 
National Green Technology Policy (2009)
• 
National Renewable Energy Policy and Action Plan (2010)
• 
New Energy Policy and 10th Malaysia Plan (2010)
• 
Eleventh Malaysia Plan (2015) 
• 
Green Technology Master Plan (2017)
2. Modelling Assumptions
The energy demand projections up to 2040 were estimated using the econometric 
approach. Historical energy demand data were taken from the National Energy Balance 
published by the Energy Commission of Malaysia. The economic indicators used in 
1 
Formerly the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water. Now it is the Ministry of Energy, Science, Technology, 
Environment and Climate Change (MESTECC).


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energy modelling such as GDP were taken from the World Bank’s World Development 
Indicators. Energy modelling involved the estimation of final energy consumption and 
the corresponding primary energy requirements or supply. Figure 11.1 shows the model 
structure for final energy demand projection and estimation of transformation inputs to 
arrive at the primary energy requirements.
The econometric approach is the method applied in forecasting final energy demand. 
The historical correlation between energy demand as well as macroeconomic and activity 
indicators were derived by regression analysis using Microfit. Microfit is an interactive 
software package written for microcomputers and is designed especially for the 
econometric modelling of time series data. It has powerful features for data processing, 
file management, graphic display, estimation, hypothesis testing, and forecasting under 
various univariate and multivariate model specifications. 
The future energy demand for various energy sources were estimated using assumed 
values of the macroeconomic and activity indicators. Future values of these indicators 
were also derived using historical data depending on the sufficiency for such analysis. In 
the model structure, energy demand is modelled as a function of activity such as income, 
industrial production, number of vehicles, number of households, number of appliances, 
floor area of buildings, etc. In the residential sector, for example, the demand for electricity 
Figure 11.1: Modelling Structure
Macroeconomic Assumptions
Final Consumption
Primary Energy
GDP, Crude Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, Population, GDP Deflator, Index of Industrial 
Production, etc.
Industry
Transport
Power 
Generation
Agriculture
Residential & 
Commercial
Oil Refinery
Non-Energy
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Author.


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could be a function of the number of households, disposable income, and penetration 
rate of electrical appliances. In the commercial sector, energy consumption could be 
driven by building floor arrears, private consumption, and other factors that encourage 
commercial activities. However, due to unavailable information on the activity indicators, 
macroeconomic data, which is GDP, was the best variable to search for the relationship 
with the energy demand trend. GDP information was broken down into industry GDP, 
commercial GDP, agriculture GDP, and manufacturing GDP. These macroeconomic 
indicators were mainly used to generate the model equations. In some cases, where 
regression analysis is not applicable due to insufficiency of data or there is failure to derive 
a statistically sound equation, other methods such as share of percentage approach are 
used.
One of the main drivers of the modelling assumption is GDP growth rates. The GDP 
growth rates assumption forecast was based on IHS2 data from a study conducted by 
the Economic Planning Unit (EPU) of Malaysia (IHS Energy Insight, 2014). Most of the 
energy demand equations for Malaysia use GDP as the key factor in determining future 
projections. This is due to the high correlation between energy demand and GDP. Table 
11.1 shows the assumptions of GDP growth rates by sector.
2 
IHS Markit Ltd is a London-based global information provider that was formed in 2016 when IHS Inc. and Markit Ltd. 
merged.
Table 11.1: GDP Growth Assumptions by Sector to 2040 (% per year)
GDP Growth Rate, 
%
2016–2020
2021–2025
2026–2030
2031–2035
2036–2040
Agriculture
2.16
2.26
2.09
1.91
1.74
Mining & Quarrying
0.01
1.01
3.03
3.74
5.17
Manufacturing
3.55
3.16
2.77
2.47
2.3
Construction
3.44
3.01
2.54
2.26
2.09
Services
4.41
4.42
3.67
3.07
2.67
Total GDP
3.88
3.77
3.19
2.74
2.43
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: IHS data from Economic Planning Unit (EPU) (2016).


203
Besides future GDP growth rates, the annual average population growth was also a key 
driver for future energy growth. In 2015, Malaysia’s population was 31.0 million; it is 
projected to increase by 10.5 million (33.9%) to 41.5 million in 2040. However, annual 
population growth rate would be decreasing from 1.15% in 2016–2020 to 1.02% in 
2021–2025, 0.87% in 2026–2030, 0.74% in 2031–2035, and 0.63% in 2036–2040. This 
situation is in tandem with the targeted decline in fertility rate and international migration. 
The assumption of future growth rates of population was obtained from the Department 
of Statistics Malaysia (Table 11.2).
In accelerating its socio-economic development, supported by its current position as a net 
energy exporter, Malaysia subsidises energy use for various users. The energy subsidies 
offered to various energy users in the country have been growing from year to year, 
corresponding with the volatility of global energy prices and growing demand for energy. 
The subsidies have reached a worrisome level that the government expenditure capacity 
has been stretched beyond its ability and has taken the share of other developmental 
budget allocations. This situation has prompted the Malaysian government to review its 
policies related to energy subsidies and to act to mitigate growing energy subsidies. In 
this regard, energy efficiency offers a sound solution to mitigate the effects of the gradual 
removal of energy subsidies.
In promoting energy efficiency, the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water 
(MEGTW) had enacted several legal instruments. The main legal instrument on energy 
efficiency promotion is the Electricity Supply Act (Amendment) 2001, or Act A1116. 
This empowers the MEGTW, under Sections 23A to 23C, to promote efficient use of 
electricity in the country. Deriving from Act 1116, the MEGTW issued the Efficient 
Management of Electrical Energy Regulation 2008. Under this regulation, all installations 
that consume or generate 3 million kilowatt-hours (KWh) or more of electricity over  6 
months will be required to engage an electrical energy manager who shall, amongst 
others, be responsible to analyse the total consumption of electrical energy, advise on 
the development and implementation of measures to ensure efficient management 
Table 11.2: Population Growth Assumption to 2040
2016–2020
2021–2025
2026–2030
2031–2035
2036–2040
Population (million)
33.8
36.0
38.1
39.9
41.5
Population growth 
(%)
1.15
1.02
0.87
0.74
0.63
Source: Department of Statistics (2016).
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of electrical energy, and monitor the effectiveness of the measures taken. The Energy 
Commission is empowered to enforce the energy efficiency regulations.
A lack of holistic and long-term policy for demand-side management (DSM) has been 
identified as a main barrier in implementing energy efficiency initiatives in Malaysia, 
even though it is an important element in the country’s energy plan and policy. Energy 
efficiency initiatives are set to receive renewed attention under the Eleventh Malaysia 
Plan through a reinvigoration of the DSM. This is intended to be achieved by formulating 
a comprehensive DSM master plan. The EPU will initiate a study on DSM, which covers 
the whole spectrum of the energy sector.
Malaysia has developed a reasonably well-designed renewable support mechanism that 
includes a set of legislation: published feed-in tariffs (FiT) with annual digression rates from 
2013 onwards, quota mechanisms, a Renewable Energy Master Plan, and an implementing 
agency (the Sustainable Energy Development Authority or SEDA). Malaysia has opted for 
FiT to drive the development of renewable capacity. FiT is guaranteed by the Renewable 
Energy Act 2011 and the levels are set by SEDA. The scheme is intended to provide a 
reasonable level of return for investors over a fixed period to give a level of certainty. FiTs 
are available for biogas, biomass, solar photovoltaic (PV), and small hydro. Support of 
16 years is given for biomass and biogas and 21 years for small hydropower and solar PV. 
A capacity quota system is in place to manage the new capacity added to the system. 
This mechanism enables Malaysia to shape the amount of new capacity to be added to 
the system from the different technologies and make it economically sustainable. Similar 
systems have been applied, for example, for solar PV in deregulated markets, including 
Italy and Spain, in response to a rush for new installations. FiT levels adjust to the cost of 
the technology. Except for small hydro, FiTs have been revised every year per different 
digression rates from 2013 onwards. This system is used in countries like Germany to 
adjust the level of remuneration to technology cost evolutions. However, these digression 
rates must be correctly calculated to avoid a slowdown in capacity buildup. Such a 
mechanism has proven to work well only in relatively experienced markets, with more 
track records and know-how.
To complement the current FiT mechanism, a new instrument termed net energy 
metering (NEM) will be implemented in the Eleventh Malaysia Plan. NEM aims to 
promote and encourage more solar PV generation by prioritising internal consumption 
before any excess electricity generated is fed to the grid. NEM is expected to encourage 
manufacturing facilities and the public to generate clean electricity. This will further 
assist the government’s effort to increase the contribution of renewable energy in the 
generation mix. NEM, which was started on 1 November 2016, is regulated by the Energy 


205
Commission and implemented by SEDA. The total quota allocated for the 5-year period 
(2016–2020) is 500 megawatts (MW).3
The new NEM scheme is only applicable to Peninsular Malaysia and applicants must 
be a registered TNB customers. NEM is executed by the Ministry of Energy, Science, 
Technology, Environment and Climate Change (MESTECC), regulated by the Energy 
Commission (EC), with Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA) Malaysia as 
the implementing agency.
As a continuation of the government’s effort to boost solar PV market in the economy, 
the EC has been tasked with implementing the large-scale solar (LSS) programme, which 
is based on a bidding process. The total quota allocated for the LSS from 2017 to 2020 is 
1,250 MW. Of this, 250 MW was granted direct award under the fast-track programme. 
As of 2018, there are 91.5 MW solar operated from five LSS projects from an open bidding 
exercise. While in Sabah, there are 50 MW solar operated from direct award projects. 
The remaining 1,000 MW fall under the bidding mechanism. In August 2017, the Energy 
Commission announced the bid open price for LSS PV plants for 2019–2020. The bid 
was divided into three categories based on capacity: 1 MW–5.99 MW; 6.00 MW–9.99 
MW; and 10 MW–30 MW. The results showed that the lowest bid received was in the 10 
MW–30.00 MW category, with a tariff of RM0.3398/kWh (US$0.079/kWh).
The implementation of the Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development Plan and the 
Nuclear Power Regulatory Infrastructure Development Plan would be an important 
step in developing nuclear power to supply electricity in the future. This will support 
the multiple goals of improving energy security, spurring economic development, and 
reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A new independent atomic energy regulatory 
commission will be established. The 10-Year Comprehensive Communication Plan and 
Strategies on Nuclear Power for electricity will be continued to increase awareness and 
public acceptance.
3 
The Ministry has introduced several solar PV initiatives to encourage Malaysia’s renewable energy (RE) uptake. From 
the RE townhall held on 12 July 2018, one of the key issues highlighted by the PV industry is the need to change 
the concept of NEM from the existing net billing to true net energy metering. This is will help improve the return of 
investment of solar PV under NEM.
 
Effective from 1 January 2019, NEM will be improved by adopting the true net energy metering concept and this will 
allow excess solar PV generated energy to be exported back to the grid on a ‘one-on-one’ offset basis. This means 
that every 1kWh exported to the grid will be offset against 1kWh consumed from the grid, instead of at the Displaced 
Cost previously.
 
The quota allocation for NEM is 500 MW up to year 2020. Quota allocation will be divided into domestic and non-
domestic category. Agriculture will be a new category to be added to the NEM scheme. The NEM category has been 
divided into four categories – Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agriculture.
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In setting up the scenarios for this project, several assumptions or scenarios have been 
identified (Table 11.3).
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.   Business-As-Usual Scenario
Total primary energy consumption (TPEC) in the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario 
registered a growth at 5.2% per year from 1990 until 2015. The outlook results showed 
that the TPEC is projected to increase by 3.6% per year from 2015 until 2040. Hydro 
will increase from 1.22 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2015 to 2.05 Mtoe with 
average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 2.1%. Oil supply will increase at 3.5% per year in 
2015–2040. The supply of coal consumed mainly by the power sector is expected to 
increase by 3.3% per year in 2015–2040. Natural gas will experience an increase from 
24.60 Mtoe in 2015 to 66.11 Mtoe in 2040, or an AAGR of 4%. Biomass for power 
generation will increase at an average annual rate of 8% in 2015–2040 while biofuel use 
for land transportation will increase at 1% per year (Figure 11.2).
Table 11.3: Potential Mitigation Scenarios
Scenario
Mitigation Actions
Energy Efficiency 
and Conservation
1. Improve final energy consumption of all energy types by 8% in 2016 and 
reach 16% by 2040. 
Renewable Energy
1. Implement renewable energy  in the power sector by 2036:
a. Hydro: 8,543 MW
b. Solar: 2,679 MW
c. Biomass: 916 MW
d. Biogas: 194 MW
e. MSW: 39 MW
Total: 12,372 MW
2. Increase the share of biodiesel from 5% to 7% from 2020
Energy Efficiency in 
the Power Sector
(EEP)
1. Improve the efficiency of power plants:
a. Natural gas at 55% by 2040
b. Coal at 45% by 2040
Nuclear (NUC)
Commission 2,000 MW of nuclear in 2036
Alternative Policy 
Scenario
Combination of all scenarios:
APS = EEC + RE + EEP + NUC
MSW = Municipal Sold Waste, MW = megawatt.
Source: Author’s assumptions.


207
In terms of share by fuel type, oil share will decrease from 38.7% in 2015 to 37.2% in 2040. 
However, the share of natural gas will increase from 34.9% in 2015 to 38.3% in 2040. Coal 
will have a decreasing share over the projection period, from 24.6% in 2015 to 22.6% in 
2040. The share of hydro will decrease from 1.7% in 2015 to 1.2% in 2040 (Figure 11.3).
Total final energy demand in the BAU scenario will increase from 49.52 Mtoe in 2015 to 
125.14 Mtoe in 2040, illustrating an AAGR of 3.8% per year. Final demand of natural gas 
and electricity will experience the highest AAGR of 4.6% and 3.7% per year, from 2015 
to 2040, respectively. Oil demand will grow from 26.39 Mtoe in 2015 to 62.52 Mtoe in 
2040, or 3.5% per year. Coal demand will increase 3.5% per year from 2015 until 2040 
and other fuels will grow from 0.39 Mtoe in 2015 to 0.50 Mtoe in 2040, or 1% per year 
(Figure 11.4)
Figure 11.2: Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
80
60
40
20
100
120
140
160
180
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
Mtoe
Figure 11.3: Share of Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60
40
20
80
100
-
%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Hydro
Others
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Figure 11.4: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mtoe
Analysis by share showed that oil, with 50%, will still dominate in 2040, slightly lower than 
that in 2015 (53.3%). This will be followed by natural gas (23.4%) and electricity (22.8%) 
in 2040. Share of coal will decrease from 3.6% in 2015 to 3.4% in 2040 (Figure 11.5).
Final energy demand by sector showed that the non-energy use sector will lead the growth 
with 4.2% per year from 2015 until 2040. This will be followed by the ‘others’ sector 
growing from 8.53 Mtoe in 2015 until 22.29 Mtoe in 2040 or 3.9% per year. The transport 
sector is expected to increase from 21.10 Mtoe in 2015 to 53.03 Mtoe in 2040, or 3.8% 
per year. The industry sector will have an average annual growth of 3.5% per year from 
2015 until 2040 (Figure 11.6).
Figure 11.5: Share of Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60
40
20
80
100
-
%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Others


209
Analysis by share showed that the transport sector will still dominate energy use in 2040, 
with 42.4% compared to 42.6% in 2015. This will be followed by the industry sector with 
26.6% share in 2040 compared to 28.2% in 2015. The share of non-energy use is 13.2% 
of total final energy demand in 2040, to increase in 2015 at 12%. The share of the ‘others’ 
sector is expected to be at 17.8% in 2040 (Figure 11.7).
In the BAU scenario, total power generation is expected to grow around 3.6% per year 
from 2015 until 2040, reaching 368.13 terawatt-hours (TWh). Power generation from 
other types of fuel (others) will have the fastest growth at 7% per year during the same 
period. Power generation from natural gas is projected to increase to 191.40 TWh in 2040 
from 69.96 TWh in 2015. Power generation from coal will grow 3.4% per year from 63.47 
TWh in 2015 to 145.83 TWh in 2040. Electricity generation from hydro will increase by 
2.1% per year during the same period. Power generation from oil is expected to decline 
by 0.3% per year to register at 1.60 TWh in 2040 compared to 1.74 TWh in 2015 (Figure 
11.8).   
Figure 11.6: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60
40
20
80
100
120
140
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Non-Energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Mtoe
Figure 11.7: Share of Final Energy Consumption by Sectors, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
40
30
20
10
50
60
70
80
90
100
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Non-Energy
Others
Transport
Industry
%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 11.8: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation.
200
150
100
50
250
300
350
400
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
In terms of share, power generation mix will be dominated by natural gas and coal in 2040 
with share of 52.0% and 39.6%, respectively, followed by hydro with a share of 6.5% in 2040 
compared to 9.4% in 2015. Share of others will be at 1.5% of the total power generation in 
2040. Oil share will be at 0.4% in 2040 compared to 1.2% share in 2015.
In the BAU scenario, the thermal efficiency of coal power plants is expected to improve 
to 36.1% in 2040 from 35.0% in 2015. That of oil power plants is projected to remain the 
same over the same period at around 33%. Thermal efficiency of natural gas power plants 
will further improve to almost 44.8% by 2040 from the 2015 level of 40.0% (Figure 11.10).
Figure 11.9: Share of Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
40
30
20
10
50
60
70
80
90
100
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
%
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Hydro
Others


211
Malaysia’s primary energy intensity is expected to increase to 223 toe/million US$ in 2040 
from 214 toe/million USin2015,whilefinalenergyintensityisexpectedtoincreaseto161toe/millionUS in 2040 compared to 150 toe/million USin2015.Primaryenergypercapitaisprojectedtoincreaseto4.37toe/personin2040comparedto2.30toe/personin2015.Carbondioxide(CO2)intensityisexpectedtodecreaseto150t−C/millionUS in 2040 
from 157 t-C/million US$ in 2015. CO2 per primary energy would slightly decrease in 
2040 at 0.67 t-C/toe from 0.74 t-C/toe in 2015.
Figure 11.10: Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
1990
2015
2025
2035
2040
-
50
40
30
20
10
%
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Figure 11.11: Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
1990
2015
2025
2035
2040
-
300
350
400
450
250
150
200
100
50
1990=100
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.  Alternative Policy Scenario 
In the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), growth in final energy demand will be at 3.5% from 
2015 until 2040, slightly lower than that of the BAU scenario. The slower rate of increase 
in the APS is projected to be the result of improvements in manufacturing technologies 
as well as efforts to improve energy efficiency, particularly in the industry and the ‘others’ 
sectors. Thus, savings of 16% in the industry sector in 2040 could be expected. In the 
‘others’ sector, the growth rate of energy consumption is projected to be slower than 
the BAU scenario at 3.2% per year compared to 3.9% per year in the BAU scenario. The 
potential saving of 16% in 2040 can be achieved through the implementation of energy 
efficiency measures (Figure 11.12).
In the APS, primary energy consumption is projected to increase at a slower rate than in 
the BAU scenario at 2.9% per year from 70.58 Mtoe in 2015 to 145.21 Mtoe in 2040 
(Figure 11.13).  Solar and biomass will be growing the fastest at average rates of 12.1% per 
year and 8.7% per year, respectively. This is due to the implementation of FiT, NEM, and 
LSS in power generation that largely impact on primary energy consumption in 2040 as 
more renewable energy for power generation is expected to be commissioned. Hydro will 
also increase fast but at a slower rate of 2.4% per year between 2015 and 2040.  Oil will 
have slower growth rates of 3.3% per year in 2015–2040 from the BAU scenario. Natural 
gas and coal are  projected to increase at 3.0% per year and 1.5% per year, respectively. 
Nuclear power as a future energy option will be introduced after 2036 (Figure 11.13).
Figure 11.12: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
30
20
10
50
40
60
0
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
0.0%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–16%
–16%


213
3.3.  Projected Energy Savings
The energy savings that could be achieved under the APS because of energy efficiency 
efforts in the industry and the ‘others’ sectors, more efficient thermal power supply, and 
higher contribution from renewable energy are estimated at 27.53 Mtoe in 2040 or 15.9% 
(Figure 11.14).
Figure 11.13: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
60,0
50,0
70,0
0,0
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
Mtoe
190.4%
–35.1%
–4.5%
–22.8%
Figure 11.14: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
120
140
100
80
60
40
20
160
200
180
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
27.53 Mtoe,-15.9%
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Major savings can be achieved by switching from coal or natural gas to renewable energy 
and nuclear power. While for final energy demand, savings of 8.9 Mtoe – comprising 
savings of 5.3 Mtoe in the industry sector and 3.6 Mtoe in the ‘others’ sector – can be 
achieved in 2040.
3.4.  CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption
In the BAU scenario, total CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to 
increase by 3.3% per year in 2015–2040. In 2015, the CO2 level was at 52.0 million tons 
of carbon (Mt-C) and was expected to increase to 116.3 Mt-C in 2040 under the BAU 
scenario. 
In the APS, the annual increase in CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2040 will be lower than 
in the BAU scenario at 2.2% per year, which is consistent with the growth in primary 
energy consumption. Reduced CO2 emissions in the APS of 25.94 Mt-C or 22.3% relative 
to the BAU scenario is also due to a significant decrease in coal consumption for power 
generation in the APS. This is because coal consumption is being replaced by natural 
gas and other clean energy sources such as nuclear and renewable energy. Furthermore, 
the lower energy usage in the industry and the ‘others’ sectors has also contributed to 
the reduction. This indicates that Malaysia’s energy-saving efforts and renewable energy 
action plan would be effective in reducing CO2 emissions (Figure 11.15).
Figure 11.15: CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, 
BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
100
80
60
40
20
120
140
0
Million Tons of Oil Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
25.94 Mtoe,-22.3%


215
3.5.  Review of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions 
 
 
 of Malaysia
In 2013, parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 
(UNFCCC) were invited to initiate domestic preparations for and submit their Intended 
Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) by 2015. The INDC submission aimed 
to facilitate the UNFCCC negotiations for adopting relevant instruments under the 
convention that are applicable to all parties towards achieving the objectives of the 
convention as per Article 2. Countries were expected to outline in their INDC the post-
2020 climate actions they intend to take under an international agreement. During the 
21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) of the UNFCCC in Paris in December 2015, the 
parties adopted the Paris Agreement, a historic international climate agreement aimed to 
keep the global average temperature to well below 2°C. It also aimed to pursue efforts to 
limit the increase to 1.5°C, and to achieve net zero emissions in the second half of this 
century.
Malaysia submitted its INDC to the UNFCCC in November 2015. Its INDC stipulates 
that Malaysia intends to reduce its GHG emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 
relative to that in 2005. This consists of 35% on an unconditional basis and a further 10% 
conditional upon receipt of climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building 
from developed countries. Malaysia’s INDC was developed by a participatory process 
through an inter-ministerial and government agencies working group. A stakeholders’ 
workshop was conducted in 2015 to obtain inputs on possible measures to reduce GHG 
emissions.
Based on results calculated from the APS, Malaysia already achieved its unconditional 
target of 35% of GHG emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 relative to that in 2005 by 
40.8% (Table 11.4).
Table 11.4: Current Results of Key Indicators from APS
2016–2020
2021–2025
GDP (billions of 2010 US$)
204.862
582.879
CO2 emissions (Mt-C)
42.400
71.391
Carbon intensity
0.207
0.122
Total reduction (%)
(40.82)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, GDP = gross domestic product, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
To achieve the 45% conditional target upon receipt of climate finance, technology transfer, 
and capacity building from developed countries, Malaysia needs to exert further efforts to 
reduce its carbon emissions. New targets under the EEC scenario have been identified as 
the best solution to achieve this target (Table 11-5).
Table 11.5 shows that the new target for EEC is improvement of final energy consumption 
in all energy types by 8% in 2016 and reach 17% by 2040. The old target of 16% under the 
APS will be reached by 2040. Table 11.6 shows the INDC results.
Table 11.5: Newly Proposed Mitigation Scenario
Scenario
Mitigation Actions
Energy Efficiency 
and Conservation 
(EEC)
1. Improve final energy consumption of all energy types by 8% in 2016 and 
reach 17% by 2040. 
Renewable Energy 
(RE)
1. Implement RE in the power sector by 2036:
a. Hydro: 8,543 MW
b. Solar: 2,679 MW
c. Biomass: 916 MW
d. Biogas: 194 MW
e. MSW: 39 MW
Total: 12,372 MW
2. Increase the share of biodiesel from 5% to 7% from 2020
Energy Efficiency 
in the Power Sector 
(EEP)
1. Improve the efficiency of power plants:
a. Natural gas at 55% by 2040
b. Coal at 45% by 2040
Nuclear (NUC)
Commission 2,000 MW of nuclear in 2036
Alternative Policy 
Scenario (APS)
Combination of all scenarios:
APS = EEC + RE + EEP + NUC
MSW = Municipal Sold Waste, MW = megawatt.
Source: Author.
Table 11.6: Results for INDC Scenario
2005
2030
GDP (billions of 2010 US$)
204.862 
582.879 
CO2 emissions (Mt-C)
 42.400 
63.800 
Carbon intensity
0.207 
0.109 
Total Reduction (%)
(47.11)
GDP = gross domestic product, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions.
Source: Malaysia INDC Report.


217
4. 
  Conclusions
The TPEC in the BAU scenario registered a growth at 5.2% per year from 1990 until 2015. 
The outlook results showed that the TPEC is projected to increase by 3.6% per year from 
2015 until 2040. In the APS, primary energy consumption is projected to increase at a 
slower rate than in the BAU scenario at 2.9% per year, from 70.58 Mtoe in 2015 to 145.21 
Mtoe in 2040. Total final energy demand in the BAU scenario will increase from 49.52 
Mtoe in 2015 to 125.14 Mtoe in 2040. This illustrates an AAGR of 3.8% per year. In the 
APS, growth in final energy demand will be at 3.5% in 2015–2040, slightly lower compared 
to that of the BAU scenario. The slower rate of increase in the APS is projected to be the 
result of improvements in manufacturing technologies as well as efforts to improve energy 
efficiency, particularly in the industry and the ‘others’ sectors.
There is still room for improvement in reducing energy in Malaysia. The potential of 
reducing energy in the industry sector should consider not only electricity but also other 
fuels, such as oil and gas, especially for heating purposes. Potential saving or target for the 
transport sector in Malaysia still cannot be quantified due to lack of information. Malaysia 
needs to collect energy data on the transport sector to identify accurate potential savings. 
It also needs to develop a comprehensive policy study to identify potential energy savings 
in the transport sector. The power sector should continuously use renewable energy to 
minimise carbon emissions. Introduction of new technology that can generate electricity 
more efficiently can contribute to  potential savings. Nuclear power is a possible energy 
option in Malaysia. 
Clear action plans and targets for each sector will help formulate energy potential savings 
in Malaysia. Government policy in terms of laws and regulations is needed to ensure that 
all related initiatives in reducing energy is moving forward. Furthermore, financial support 
from developed countries will speed up the whole process in meeting the target of reducing 
energy. Since climate change has become a global issue, identifying the potential energy 
saving will be very important. This effort needs cooperation from all stakeholders such as 
policymakers, the private sector, and others. 
Malaysia Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
References
Department of Statistics (2016), Population Projections (Revised) Malaysia 2010–2040, 
https://newss.statistics.gov.my/newss-portalx/ep/epFreeDownloadContentSearch.
seam?cid=74634 (accessed 19 January 2018).
Economic Planning Unit (EPU) (2015), Eleventh Malaysia Plan 2016–2020, http://epu.
gov.my/en/rmk/eleventh-malaysia-plan-2016-2020 (accessed 19 January 2018)
IHS Energy Insight (2014), A Study to Formulate an Energy Policy for Malaysia (2013–
2050), Putrajaya: Economic Planning Unit.
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment  (2015), ‘Malaysia INDC Report’, 
Putrajaya.
World Bank (n.d.), ‘World Development Indicators’,  https://datacatalog.worldbank.
org/dataset/world-development-indicators (accessed 19 January 2018).


219
MYANMAR COUNTRY REPORT
Tin Zaw Myint, Planning and Statistics Branch, Ministry of Electricity 
and Energy, Myanmar
1.   Background
1.1.  Country Profile 
Myanmar is the largest country in mainland Southeast Asia. It covers 676,577 square 
kilometres (km) and shares a border of 5,858 km with Bangladesh and India to the 
northwest, China to the northeast, and Thailand to the southeast. About 48% of the total 
land area is covered with forest, and most of the land is used for agriculture. Myanmar had 
a population of 52.4 million in 2015, with an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 1% 
per year from 1990 to 2015. 
Myanmar is located in Southeast Asia and has three distinct seasons. It enjoys 3 to 4 
months of heavy monsoon and abundant sunshine all year round, which makes it ideal 
for accumulating water for hydropower and for agriculture. Its topographic features 
favour the existence of numerous rivers, mountain ranges, and sedimentary basins where 
mineral deposits and energy resources have abundantly accumulated. The delta regions 
where the two major river systems (N’mail and Mali rivers) enter the Bay of Bengal and the 
2,832 km coastal strip along the southern part are also a good area for the development of 
marine ecosystems and an abundant source for marine products and chemicals.
Myanmar is endowed with rich natural resources for the production of commercial energy. 
Its current sources of energy are crude oil, natural gas, hydroelectricity, biomass, and coal. 
Besides these, wind, solar, geothermal, bioethanol, biodiesel, and biogas are potential 
energy sources found in the country. 
Myanmar’s proven energy reserves in 2017 comprised 105 million barrels of oil, 6.58 
trillion cubic feet of gas, and 542.56 million metric tons of coal. The country is a net 
exporter of energy, exporting substantial amounts of natural gas and coal to neighbouring 
countries. However, it imports around 90% of its total oil requirements.
CHAPTER 12


220
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
1 
All US$ in this report are in constant 2010 values unless specified.
1.2.  Socio-economic Status
The population of Myanmar grew at 1% per year between 1990 and 2015 to 52.4 million in 
2015. Myanmar’s gross domestic product (GDP) was US170.5billion(constant2010)in2015,anditsGDPpercapitagrewfromaroundUS200 in 1990 to US$1,300 in 2015. 
Aiming to enhance economic development, Myanmar formulated and implemented 
5-year short-term plans in 1992 to 2013. The first (1992–1995), second (1996–2000), 
third (2001–2005), and fourth plans (2006–2010) achieved AAGRs in GDP of 7.5%, 
8.5%, 12.8%, and 12.0%, respectively. The last 5-year plan (2011–2016) was formulated 
to achieve an AAGR of 7% in GDP.
1.3.  Energy Consumption in the Base Year
Myanmar’s total primary energy supply was 19.8 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) 
in 2015. Natural gas is mainly used to generate electricity and in industry. Currently, 
Myanmar has 5,235 megawatts (MW) of installed generation capacity and produced 
almost 16 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2015 (Table 12.1). During the same 
year, thermal (coal, natural gas, and oil) and hydro accounted for 41% and 59% of total 
electricity generation, respectively.
Table 12.1: Installed Capacity and Power Generation by Fuel Type (2015–2016)
No.
Type of Fuel
2015-2016
Installed (MW)
Generation (GWh)
1
Hydro
3,215
9,399
2
Gas + Steam
1,695
6,511
3
Coal
120
4
Diesel
95
55
Total Reduction (%)
5,125
15,965
GWh = gigwatt-hour, MW = megawatt.
Source: Myanmar Ministry of Electricity and Energy (2018a).


221
Myanmar Country Report
2.   Modelling Assumptions
2.1.  GDP and Population Growth
In this publication, Myanmar’s GDP is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of around 
6.2% from 2015 to 2040, slowing from the 9.1% growth of 1990–2015. The population 
is assumed to increase by about 0.71% per year from 2015 to 2040. The assumption is 
based on data from the Ministry of Labour, Immigration and Population.
2.2.  Energy Consumption and Electricity Generation
Hydro and natural gas dominated electricity generation in Myanmar. Other fuels such as 
oil and coal also contributed to the country’s generation mix but was only less than 13% in 
total in 1990. The government’s plan is to increase further the share of natural gas, coal, 
hydro, and other renewables in the total generation mix and decrease oil share. Myanmar 
also has plans to export electricity to neighbouring countries, such as Thailand and China, 
from its hydropower plants.
Based on the yearly plan for the construction of power plants in 2018–2022 (Table 
12.2), majority of the projects are gas-based power plants, including liquefied natural gas 
(LNG). Others are hydro and solar power plants. The yearly plan excludes coal-based 
power plants, currently at 120 MW installed capacity.
In this masterplan, the shares between scenarios differ. The lowest is the Power Resource 
Balance scenario (Scenario 3), under which total installed capacity will reach 23,594 MW 
by 2030 with hydro share amounting to 38%; coal, 33%; gas, 20%; and the remaining which 
are renewables (solar, wind, etc.), 8%. Both installed capacity in the yearly plan and the 
power supply scenario 3 are included in the current outlook model under the Reference 
scenario.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 12.2: Yearly Plan for the Construction of Power Plant Projects (MW)
No
Project Name
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Total
1
Thahtone CCGT (World 
Bank)
118
 
 
 
 
 
2
MyinGyan CCGT 
(Sembcorp)
225
 
 
 
 
 
3
Minbu Solar (Green Earth)
 
40
40
40
50
 
4
Baelin Gas Engine (Rental)
 
135
 
 
 
 
5
MyinGyan Gas Engine
 
90
 
 
 
 
6
Myanaung Gas Engine 
(Japan Grant)
 
 
20
 
 
 
7
Pahtoelon CCGT (JICA)
 
 
12
 
 
 
8
Ahlon LNG to Power (Toyo 
Thai)
 
 
356
 
 
 
9
KyaukPhyu CCGT 
(Sinohydro)
 
 
135
 
 
 
10
MelaungGyaing (LNG) LNG 
to Power (Zhefu)
 
 
 
1390
 
 
11
Kanbauk LNG to Power 
(Total & Siemens)
 
 
 
820
410
 
12
Ywama (W.B.) (Gas)
 
 
 
150
75
 
13
Upper KyaingTaung (Hydro)
 
 
 
51
 
 
14
Upper Yeywa (Hydro)
 
 
 
280
 
 
15
Middle PaungLaung 
(Energize)
 
 
 
 
152
 
16
Dee Dote (Andritz)
 
 
 
 
60
 
Total
343
265
563
2731
747
4649
MW = megawatt.
Source: Department of Electric Power Planning, Myanmar Ministry of Electricity and Energy (2018b).
Table 12.3: Installed Capacity and Power Supply in Scenarios for 2030
No
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
(Domestic Energy Consumption)
(Least Cost)
(Power Resources 
Balance)
Energy Resources
Installed Capacity
Installed Capacity
Installed Capacity
(MW)
%
(MW)
%
(MW)
%
1
Hydro (large)
12,147
42
12147
43
1412
6
2
Hydro (small and medium)
6,891
24
6,891
24
7,484
32
3
Gas
4,986
17
2,484
9
4,758
20
4
Coal
2,760
10
5,030
18
7,940
34
5
Renewable
2,000
7
2,000
7
2,000
8
Total
28,784
28,552
23,594
MW = megawatt.
Source: Myanmar Energy Master Plan (2015).
The Energy Masterplan of Myanmar considers three scenarios (Table 12.3).


223
2.3.  Energy and Climate Change/Environmental Policies
Myanmar’s energy policy in general strives to maintain energy independence by increasing 
indigenous production of available primary energy resources through intensive exploration 
and development activities. It also addresses electric power as the main driving power 
source for economic development and the need to generate and distribute in terms of 
volume, density, and reliability. It also advocates the use of water resources, a renewable 
energy resource for generating electricity to save non-renewable sources of energy such 
as fossil fuels for alternative and future use. It also emphasises energy efficiency and 
conservation (EEC) to save energy through effective energy management and to reduce 
energy consumption to minimise harmful environmental impacts. It further encourages 
the use of new and renewable energy (NRE) sources, especially solar and wind which are 
abundant under Myanmar’s climatic condition. It also recognises that traditional energy 
sources, such as fuelwood and charcoal, still need to be used. Regulations and anticipatory 
actions are necessary for the sustained harvesting of this primary energy source.
Savings in Myanmar’s energy consumption can be attained through the implementation 
of energy efficiency programmes in all energy-consuming sectors. In the industry 
sector, energy savings of at least 14% from Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario levels are 
expected by 2020 from improved manufacturing technologies. In the residential and 
commercial (‘others’) sectors, efficient end-use technologies and energy management 
systems are also projected to induce significant savings. In the transport sector, efficiency 
improvements will be achieved by improved vehicle fuel economy and more effective 
traffic management.
Myanmar still lacks a national strategy and action plan for mitigating and adapting to climate 
change, but several ministries have been implementing sector-specific initiatives relevant 
to climate change. The government is encouraging the use of biofuel in the transport and 
agriculture sectors to reduce oil dependency and curb carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. 
These efforts are already in place, although the amount of biofuel used in the country 
is still small for the time being. The government, through the Ministry of Electricity and 
Energy, has initiated the Clean Fuel Programme to reduce CO2 emissions by increasing 
the use of natural gas in the industry sector for power generation. This includes converting 
gasoline, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vehicles to compressed natural gas 
vehicles.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation (MONREC), the 
designated national authority for clean development mechanism, has submitted one 
hydropower project to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 
for consideration. The National Environmental Conservation Committee was formed in 
2004 and re-formed in April 2011, replacing the National Commission for Environmental 
Affairs, and now serves as the focal organisation for environmental matters. It is chaired by 
MONREC, formerly the Ministry of Forestry, and its members  come from 19 ministries. 
The Environmental Conservation Law was enacted in March 2012. The law provides 
the legal basis for implementing a range of enhanced environmental management 
measures. Simultaneously, the draft Environmental Conservation Rule, which embodies 
regulations and technical guidelines and creates the enabling conditions for their effective 
implementation, is being drawn up and submitted to the authorised body.
2.4.  The National Efficiency Policy
The National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Policy, Strategy and Roadmap for 
Myanmar (ADB, 2015) mandates the following:
 
The National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Policy, Strategy and Roadmap 
for Myanmar 2015 was supported by the Asian Development Bank and the Japan 
Fund for Poverty Reduction. Based on the calculated potential energy savings, the 
National Energy Efficiency Policy targets the following objectives by 2020, using 2012 
as a baseline: (i) to reduce national electricity demand by 12%, (ii) to reduce biomass 
consumption by 2.3%, and (iii) to reduce national carbon dioxide emissions by 78,690 
tonnes. To reach the overall energy efficiency objective, it is necessary to develop a 
strategy to save energy for all important energy-intensive sectors such as the industry, 
transport, commercial, and residential sectors.
Specifically, the following strategies could achieve the goals:
For the residential sector: (i) introduction of energy efficiency performance standards 
and labelling for appliances, (ii) establishment of testing and certification facilities for 
appliances, (iii) introduction of incentives for energy-efficient equipment, (iv) phasing 
out of inefficient appliances from the market, (v) promotion of efficient biomass cook 
stoves, (vi) increasing consumer awareness on the benefits of LPG for cooking, (vii) 
introduction of energy efficiency labelling scheme for LPG cook stoves, and (viii) conduct 
of regular energy efficiency awareness campaigns in national media.


225
For the commercial sector: (i) conduct of energy audits; (ii) formulation of energy 
performance standards (for appliances); (iii) incorporation of energy efficiency in new 
building design, energy building code, and refurbishments; and (iv) preparation of energy 
efficiency guidelines for commercial buildings.
Action Plan 2018–2021 provides for a step-by-step implementation of activities to 
harmonise energy efficiency performance standards for air conditioning and lighting.
In addition, the following measures are considered important in achieving the goals:
• 
Residential: high efficiency lighting and refrigeration, LPG cooking  
• 
Industry: cogeneration, energy efficiency (boiler, kilns, motor), waste heat recovery
• 
Commercial: high efficiency lighting and air conditioning, LPG cooking, solar water 
heating, standard labelling equipment of appliances, LED
2.5. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions/Nationally 
 
 
Determined Contributions (INDC/NDC) 
Mitigation actions and policies in the energy sector:
• 
Energy – 30% renewable in rural electrification (mini hydropower; biomass; solar, 
wind, and solar mini-grid technologies)
• 
Clean cooking and heating – distribute approximately 260,000 energy-efficient 
cooking stoves between 2016 and 2031
• 
Renewable energy (hydropower) – 9.4 GW hydroelectric generation by 2030
• 
Energy efficiency – 20% electricity-saving potential of the total forecast electricity 
consumption by 2030.
Government plans to achieve by 2030 a 27% share of renewable energy to the national 
energy mix. To fulfil this goal, the share of these four types of renewable energy sources 
should be allocated as follows: hydropower (1.3%), solar (on-grid, 17.8%) (off-gird, 3.7%), 
biomass (1%), bio-gasification (0.02%), and biofuel (5%).This higher share of renewable 
targets in the energy mix could be achieved if the government has clear policy support 
to scale up renewables such as feed-in-tariff or any other policy to attract investment in 
renewable power generation. 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
2.6.  Alternative Policy Scenarios 
In previous studies, two scenarios were formulated to analyse the impact of policy 
interventions to the energy sector. The BAU scenario serves as the reference case to 
project energy demand and CO2 emissions, and the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), to 
evaluate the impacts of policy interventions in the development and utilisation of energy 
resources in the country. The APS as such can include policies to increase EEC targets, 
expedite penetration of NRE and introduction of cleaner technology, including options for 
a nuclear power plant. To understand further the impact of individual policy interventions, 
this year’s study formulated five APSs as follows:
• 
APS1 –  Improved energy efficiency of final energy demand
• 
APS2 –  Higher efficiency of thermal electricity generation  
• 
APS3 –  Higher contribution of NRE (here, NRE for electricity generation and biofuels 
in the transport sector are assumed) 
• 
APS4 –  Introduction or higher contribution of nuclear energy 
• 
APS5 –  Combined impact of scenarios APS1 to APS4  
Myanmar does not have an existing plan to introduce nuclear energy for power generation. 
As such, APS4 has not been considered in the analysis. Thus,  APS5 would consist only of 
APS1, APS2, and APS3.
APS3 includes more renewables in the power generation mix of Myanmar. As such, for 
APS3, the additional installed capacity for coal-based and gas-based power plant for 
2030 is replaced by renewable energy capacity, including hydro plants.
Beside the APS, this 2018 study also considers the emissions plan and target of East Asia 
Summit member countries under the INDC/NDC of the energy sector. 
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario
Final Energy Consumption
The total final energy consumption in Myanmar increased by about 2.6% per year, from 
9.4 Mtoe in 1990 to 17.73 Mtoe in 2015.The transport sector was the fastest-growing 
sector with an average annual growth of 8.6% in 1990–2015. Consequently, the share of 


227
this sector in the total final energy demand increased from around 4.7% in 1990 to almost 
19.9% in 2015. The industry sector was the second-fastest growing sector with an AAGR 
of 7.1% over the same period; the share of this sector in the total final energy demand 
increased from 4.2% in 1990 to 12.3% in 2015.
The ‘others’ sector, which comprises the commercial, residential, and agriculture sectors, 
was the major contributor to total final energy consumption. The shares of this sector, 
however, has been declining from 90.1% in 1990 to 66.3% in 2015. This indicates that the 
annual growth of demand for this sector was slower than that of the industry and transport 
sectors. The AAGR of the demand of the ‘others’ sector was 1.3% in 1990–2015. Non-
energy consumption grew gradually at an average annual rate of 4.2% over the same 
period, from almost 0.09 Mtoe in 1990 to 0.27 Mtoe in 2015. Although the share of this 
sector demand was only 1.0% in 1990, it increased slightly to 1.5% in 2015.
Using the socio-economic assumptions stated above, final energy demand in Myanmar is 
projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.8% under the BAU scenario, reaching 35.29 Mtoe 
in 2040. The transport sector will still experience the fastest growth in final energy demand 
in 2015–2040. Its growth rate, however, is lower than that of 1990–2015. Final energy 
demand of the transport sector will increase at an average rate of 5.3% per year while that 
of the industry sector will grow at 4.8% per year. Final energy demand of the ‘others’ sector 
(mainly the residential and commercial sectors) is projected to grow at an annual average 
rate of 0.9%, slower than in the past. This is mainly because of the reduction in biomass 
demand, which represents majority of the fuel consumed by the sector. Figure 12.1 shows 
the final energy demand by sector to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Figure 12.1: Final Energy Demand by Sector, BAU (1990-2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Others
Industry
Transport
Non-energy
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The growth of the respective sectors under BAU will result in a continuous increase of the 
transport, industry, and non-energy sector shares in the total final energy demand and a 
decline in the share of the ‘others’ sector. The share of the transport, industry, and non-
energy sectors is projected to increase to 36.4%, 19.9 %, and 2.0%, respectively, in 2040. 
That of the ‘others’ sector will decline to around 41.7% from 66.3 % in 2015.
By fuel type, others, which are mostly biomass, were the most consumed fuel in 1990 with 
a share of 89.2% in the country’s total final energy demand. Its share decreased to 56.8% in 
2015 due to the higher growth of other fuels. The demand of natural gas increased from 
0.23 Mtoe in 1990 to 0.71 Mtoe in 2015 while that for oil increased from 0.59 Mtoe to 
5.43 Mtoe over the same period. Oil demand grew the fastest at an average rate of 9.3% 
per year in 1990–2015.
Under the BAU scenario, the share of other fuels will decline to 31.7% in 2040, indicating 
that its future use will grow slower than the other fuels. In contrast, oil share will continue 
to increase and will reach 44.9% in 2040 from 30.6% in 2015 with an average growth of 
4.4% per year. This is due to the rapid increase of transport sector activities in 2015-2040. 
Figure 12.2 shows the final energy demand by fuel type to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Coal is projected to have an AAGR of 3.2% in 2015–2040, still slower than natural gas 
(5.2%). Electricity demand will still grow the fastest at an AAGR of 6% per year during the 
same period. Its share will increase from 6.5% in 2015 to 14.0% in 2040.
Figure 12.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990-2040)
Mtoe
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Electricity
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Others


229
Figure 12.3: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU (1990-2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Others
Myanmar Country Report
Primary Energy Consumption
The primary energy consumption in Myanmar grew at an average annual rate of 2.5%, 
from 10.68 Mtoe in 1990 to 19.85 Mtoe in 2015 (Figure 12.3). Amongst the major 
energy sources, hydro and oil grew the fastest, with AAGRs of 8.6% and 8.4%, respectively. 
Natural gas consumption grew at an average annual rate of 5.8% over the same period. 
Coal consumption increased at 7.1% per year on the average over the same period. 
Others, such as biomass, dominate the primary energy consumption mix in 2015, with a 
50.9% share. Oil (27.6%) and natural gas (15.5%) had the next largest shares amongst the 
major fuels over the same period.
In the BAU scenario, Myanmar’s primary energy consumption is projected to increase at 
an annual average rate of 3% per year to 41.79 Mtoe in 2040. Hydro and natural gas are 
expected to grow at average annual rates of 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. Coal will grow 
fastest at 12.3% over the period 2015–2040. Oil will grow at 4.4% per year.
The share of oil and hydro in the total primary energy mix of Myanmar will increase to 
38.3% and 3.8%, respectively, in 2040. Coal share will also increase from 1.9% in 2015 
to 16.4% in 2040. Natural gas shares will increase to 13.8% over the projection period. 
Notably, the share of biomass will decrease due to its slow growth that is driven just by 
the growth of the rural population. From 50.9% in 2015, its share will decline to 27.6% in 
2040.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Power Generation
Hydro and natural gas dominated the power sector fuel mix in Myanmar (Figure 12.4). 
In 2015, the share of hydro in the power generation mix reached 58.9%, while that of 
natural gas was 40.8%. The remaining fuel (coal and oil) accounted for only 0.3% of the 
total generation mix.
Under the BAU scenario, oil-based power plants will cease operation by 2030 while hydro 
and natural gas still have shares in the power sector mix of Myanmar in 2040. The share, 
however, has changed. Hydro-based power plants will have a 29.1% share while that of 
natural gas will be 21.8%. 
The remaining fuel will have an increasing role in the future. Coal-based power generation 
share in the total fuel mix will increase to 42.2% in 2040, becoming the dominant power 
generation sector while other renewable shares (solar, wind, and biomass) will reach 6.8%.
Total electricity generation from the different plants will grow at an average annual rate of 
5.6% in 2015–2040, with natural gas–based power plants growing at an average annual 
rate of 3.0%. Hydropower generation will increase but at a slower average annual rate of 
2.7% during the same period. 
Figure 12.4: Power Generation Mix, BAU (1990-2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Study outcome.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Others


231
3.2.  Energy Savings Potential (APS)
The APS was analysed separately to determine the individual impacts of the policy 
interventions assumed in APS1, APS2, and APS3. The combination of all these policy 
interventions was further analysed in APS5. Figure 12.6 shows the changes in total primary 
energy consumption (TPEC) in all  scenarios.
Energy Intensity, Energy per Capita, and Energy Elasticity
Myanmar’s primary energy intensity (TPES/GDP) has been declining since 1990. In 
2015, the primary energy intensity was 281 toe/million 2010 US$, lower than what it was 
in 1990 which was 1,333 toe/million 2010 US.Theintensityisprojectedtocontinuetodecreaseto132toe/million2010US by 2040 at an average rate of 3% per year. Energy 
consumption per capita grew from 0.3 toe in 1990 to 0.4 toe in 2015 and will increase to 
0.67 toe by 2040, at an AAGR of 2.3%. CO2 intensity was 140t-C/million 2010 USin1990anddecreasedto93t−C/million2010US in 2015. CO2 intensity is projected to 
continue to decrease to 74 t-C/million 2010 US$ in 2040 at an AAGR of 0.9%. Figure 
12.5 shows the evolution of these energy indicators from 1990 to 2040.
CO2 = carbon dioxide.
Source: Study outcome.
Figure 12.5: Energy Intensity, CO2 Intensity, and Energy per Capita (1990–2040)
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1990 = 100
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 12.6: Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Mtoe
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Others
Figure 12.6 shows that APS5 has the largest reduction in the TPEC due to the 
implementation of EEC action plans, improvement of thermal efficiency of fossil-fuelled 
power plants, and higher penetration of NRE in the country’s supply mix. The AAGR 
of the TPEC under APS5 will be around 2.1% over the projection period. In 2040, the 
reduction of primary energy consumption in APS5 compared to the BAU scenario will 
be 8.64 Mtoe or 20.7%. Individually, implementation of energy efficiency targets and 
masterplan as defined in APS1 will reduce the TPEC of Myanmar by 5.49 Mtoe or 13.1% 
in 2040 compared to the BAU scenario. The AAGR of primary energy consumption in 
APS1 will be 2.4%, slightly higher than APS5. APS2, which assumes higher efficiency in 
thermal electricity generation, will reduce the TPES by 1.53 Mtoe or 3.7% compared to 
the BAU scenario. The country’s TPES under APS2 will grow at an annual average rate 
of 2.9%, slightly slower than the BAU scenario. Since no final energy demand efficiency 
measures were assumed for APS2, the impact on primary energy supply will be lower than 
APS1 or APS5. Of all the fossil fuels considered, implementation of this higher efficiency 
in thermal power generation policy intervention will reduce the use of coal and natural gas 
for power generation. A highly efficient  power generation could lead to higher reduction 
in coal use by almost 14% in 2040. 
If a policy for higher penetration of NRE is implemented, then the TPEC will decrease, 
compared to the BAU scenario, by 2.63 Mtoe or 6.3%. By fuel type, coal consumption will 
decrease but the use of renewable energy will increase by 12% (1.60 Mtoe).


233
The impact of implementing policy interventions will also be reflected in the power 
generation of the country. Figure 12.7 shows  total electricity generation in 2040 in all 
scenarios. In both APS1 and APS5, due to lower electricity demand, power generation will 
be reduced by 11.47 Mtoe or 20% compared to the BAU scenario. The reduction in power 
generation will be from natural gas, coal, and hydro plants; highest reduction will be in coal 
power plants (5.32 Mtoe in APS1 and 26.1 Mtoe in APS5).
Under APS2 and APS3, the total amount of electricity generated will be similar to the 
BAU scenario because no efficiency measures were imposed on the final sector. The 
differences, however, lie in the fuel mix for power generation under APS3. More ‘others’ 
renewable power plants such as solar, wind, biomass, etc. will be in operation over 
the projection period, replacing coal-based power plants, which are supposed to be in 
operation up to 2040.
Figure 12.7: Comparison of Scenarios of Electricity Generation in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Study outcome.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
TWh
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Others
In terms of CO2 emissions reduction, the energy efficiency assumption in APS5 is expected 
to reduce emissions at the largest by around 8.9 million metric tons of carbon (Mt-C) 
or 38% lower than the BAU scenario. The decrease in CO2 indicates that the energy-
saving goals, action plans, and policies in the promotion of programmes, and switching 
to less carbon-intensive technologies such as renewable sources in the supply mix will be 
effective in reducing CO2 emissions. Figure 12.8 shows the projected CO2 emissions in 
2040 in all scenarios.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 12.8: Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Study outcome.
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
25
20
15
10
5
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Million Tons of Carbon
In APS1, total final energy demand will be lower so that CO2 emissions from energy 
consumption will also be lower, reaching 19.50 Mt-C. This is a reduction of CO2 emissions 
by around 3.9 Mt-C, which is about 17% lower than the BAU scenario. In APS3, higher 
contributions from renewable energy could reduce emissions by 21% compared to the 
BAU scenario. Total CO2 emissions under APS3 will be around 18.6 Mt-C. The decrease 
in CO2 indicates that increasing renewable energy shares in the total supply will reduce 
further CO2 emissions.
3.2.1  Final energy consumption in the APS
In APS5, the growth in final energy demand is projected to grow at a lower average annual 
rate of 2.3% compared to the 2.8% annual growth in the BAU scenario. The reason for the 
slower growth rate is the result of technological improvement in manufacturing processes 
and the reduction of final energy demand of electricity and oil in the residential and 
commercial (‘others’) sectors. Figure 12.9 shows the differences in final energy demand 
in 2040 by sector in the BAU scenario and the APS.


235
Primary Energy Supply
In the APS, Myanmar’s primary energy supply is projected to increase at a slightly lower 
rate than the BAU scenario’s at 2.1% per year, from 19.85 Mtoe in 2015 to 33.15 Mtoe 
in 2040. Hydro will be the fastest growing at 4.3% per year, followed by oil at 3.7% per 
year in 2015–2040. Coal is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.1% over the 
same period and natural gas, at 1.9% per year. Figure 12.10 shows the primary energy 
consumption by source in 2040 under the BAU scenario and the APS.
Figure 12.9: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–14.6%
–8.6%
0.0%
–15.9%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 12.10: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–14.3%
–15.2%
–88.3%
4.4%
Projected Energy Savings
In Myanmar, commercial energy consumption is projected based on the energy 
requirements of the major sectors (industry, transport, agriculture, and households). 
The choice of fuel type is determined by available supply, since energy demand must be 
met mainly by domestic sources. Obviously, there is a gap between demand and supply, 
but the demand is much higher than the actual requirement. Due to these constraints, 
coefficients, derived by time series regression, have been applied to allocate energy. These 
allocations are made according to the priority of state organisations and enterprises. For 
the private sector, allocations are made according to the registered licensed capacity of 
the firm.
Future savings in energy could be due to savings in primary energy consumption in the 
residential, commercial, transport, and industry sectors. In this regard, Myanmar has 
implemented a range of EEC goals and action plans which target energy savings in all 
sectors of the economy and in cooperation with the private and the public sectors. There 
is an estimated saving of 8.64 Mtoe in 2040 in the APS relative to the BAU scenario. 
This is equivalent to 20.7% saving of the primary energy consumption in 2040 of the BAU 
scenario (Figure 12.11). Myanmar has plans to decrease the growth in primary energy 
consumption by implementing a range of EEC measures on the demand side.


237
CO2 Reduction Potential
In the APS, the energy efficiency policy of Myanmar is projected to reduce growth in CO2 
emissions from energy consumption. In 2040, in the APS, CO2 emissions from energy 
consumption are projected to reach about 14.4 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) which is 
about 38% below the the BAU scenario level (Figure 12.12).
Figure 12.11: Evolution of Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual scenario, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
25
20
15
10
5
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS 
8.64Mtoe,-20.7%
Figure 12.12: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, 
BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
25
20
15
10
5
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS 
8.95Mtoe,-38.3%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.3.  Intended Nationally Determined Contributions/Nationally 
 
 
 Determined Contributions 
The current energy outlook model considered the Mitigation Actions and Policies of 
Myanmar in the Energy Sector as specified above in section 2.5 on INDC/NDC. These are 
the 20% electricity saving potential by 2030 and the 9.4 GW hydroelectricity generation 
by 2030. The 30% renewable in rural electrification (mini hydropower; biomass; solar, 
wind, and solar mini-grid technologies) is considered in the share of renewable in the total 
power supply mix of Myanmar.
The energy sector mitigation actions and policies are represented in the APS scenario 
since the scenario includes:
• 
Energy savings (APS1) in the different final sectors (industry, transport, residential, 
commercial, and others) as a result of introducing more efficient technologies. The 
assumptions were:
− 
Electricity: 20% reduction of demand compared to the BAU scenario 
− 
Oil: 15% saving from the BAU scenario
− 
Others (biomass): 5% reduction compared to the BAU scenario 
• 
Introduction of highly efficient technologies for fossil fuel use in the power sector 
(APS2)
• 
Increasing renewable energy share in the electricity-generating capacity (APS3):
− 
Hydro-installed capacity of 9.4 GW by 2030 (including mini- and micro-hydro)
− 
Other renewables such as wind, solar, and biomass with total capacity of 3 GW 
by 2030.
Electricity demand reached 36 TWh in 2030 under the BAU scenario. Under the APS, 
electricity demand was expected to be reduced by 20%  compared to the BAU scenario. As 
a result, electricity demand in the APS will be only 29 TWh in 2030. The electricity saving 
of 20% has been assumed to continue to 2040 as no additional target is available after 
2030. Figure 12.13 shows the electricity demand of the final sectors over the projection 
period. ‘Others’ comprises the residential, commercial, agriculture, construction, and 
other sectors. Electricity demand in the transport sector has been excluded in the current 
outlook.


239
Figure 12.13: Electricity Demand, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Sources: Study outcome.
Other Sectors
Industry
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
TWh
2015
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
-6.0%
-13.0%
-20.0%
-20.0%
-20.0%
The APS generation capacity will be more towards renewable energy compared to the 
BAU scenario (Figure 12.14). As explained earlier in the modelling assumption, the APS 
excludes some of the additional capacity for the coal-based and natural gas capacity 
after 2025. More capacity will be made available from renewable energy sources. Hydro 
resources will reach the 9.4 GW capacity by 2030 as stipulated in the mitigation actions 
and policies for the energy sector of Myanmar. These include not only the large hydro but 
also the mini- and micro-hydro plants. Hydro share reached 52% under the APS compared 
to 38% under the BAU scenario while other renewable sources such as solar, wind, and 
biomass will also have increasing share compared to the BAU scenario (22% compared to 
8%).
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Considering lower final energy demand and more renewable share under the APS, the 
impact of the APS to the environment would be a lower CO2 emissions. The total CO2 
emissions under the BAU scenario in 2030 will be 55.2 Mt-CO2e (or 15.1 Mt-C). Under 
the APS, CO2 emissions will be around 36.4 Mt-CO2e (or 9.9 Mt-C) in 2030. This is a 
reduction of CO2 emissions by 18.8 Mt-CO2e (or 5.1 Mt-C) compared to the BAU 
scenario, which is approximately around 34%.
As previously shown, the CO2 emission reductions in the APS will be 38% by 2040, which 
is around 32.8 Mt-CO2e (or 8.9 Mt-C).
4. 
  Conclusions and Policy Implications
Although energy intensity will decline, energy consumption will still increase due to 
economic, population, and vehicle growth. Myanmar should increase adoption of energy-
efficient technologies to mitigate growth in energy consumption; it should also diversify 
energy availability. The energy-saving programme will target the residential, commercial, 
transport, and industry sectors.
The current energy supply has been kept below its potential due to the scarcity of technical 
and financial resources needed first to reverse the decline and then to accelerate natural 
gas and oil development and production.
Figure 12.14: Power Generation Capacity in 2030, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual scenario, ORNW = other renewable sources.
Source: Study outcome.
Hydro
Gas
Coal
ORNW
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
BAU
APS
34%
20%
38%
8%
22%
52%
20%
6%
%


241
The country has been experiencing serious energy shortages, which will become more 
acute in the absence of further energy sector investment. First, there should be more 
aggressive exploration of the upstream energy sector and more financial and technical 
assistance in each energy subsector to secure the national energy supply.
To increase electricity production, Myanmar should rehabilitate existing electricity 
transmission and distribution, expand rural electrification, build coal- or gas-fired power 
plants, and promote renewable energy in the country’s fuel mix as secure energy sources. 
The framework should list all potential renewable energy projects in the area, outlining 
priorities and sequencing, along with funding requirements which would be based on 
completed studies.
In this regard, the following actions are proposed to be considered:
• 
The Ministry of Electricity and Energy should formulate an integrated national energy 
policy, including on energy efficiency. 
• 
Adopt a coordination mechanism and institutional arrangement and legal framework. 
• 
Improve energy statistics for better analysis of energy saving potential in Myanmar.
• 
Conduct a demand-side survey for energy consumption, which can be done by 
combining this survey with existing ones.
• 
Due to the continuous dominance of the transport sector in final energy consumption, 
set an energy efficiency target for the transport sector in addition to those that have 
been calculated for the industry, commercial, and household sectors.
• 
Create a detailed policy mechanism for the renewable energy sector to implement 
potential programmes and projects. This mechanism should be developed and 
planned in conjunction with external stakeholders, who offer experiences, advanced 
technologies, new markets, and investment. 
• 
Improve energy management practices of the industrial and commercial sectors.
• 
Establish a dedicated energy efficiency body to oversee the energy efficiency 
programme of Myanmar.
• 
Refine the current energy efficiency target to include the numerical targets and 
detailed action plans of all sectors.
• 
Establish a comprehensive integrated energy plan to guide the development of 
the sector, including an energy efficiency labelling programme for energy service 
companies and appliances.
• 
Since the electrification rate is still low, formulate schemes to enhance private 
participation, including foreign companies, to accelerate power sector development, 
including transmission and distribution system to ensure reliable electricity supply to 
the consumers.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
• 
The Ministry of Industry should set specific targets for each sector on energy efficiency 
and government should implement to achieve these targets.
• 
Consider the import of LNG in floating terminals in the short term to meet the 
projected rapid growth of electricity demand while exploration of new domestic 
natural gas resources is still being undertaken.
• 
Consider civilian nuclear energy policy and exploration of geothermal energy potential 
to generate electricity.
• 
Remove taxes in LPG and kerosene to reduce biomass consumption, which is 
increasing continuously, in the residential sector.
• 
Encourage private companies to invest in new refinery capacities to meet domestic 
petroleum products demand.
References
ADB (2015), TA 8356-MYA Final Report: National Energy Efficiency and Conservation 
Policy, Strategy and Roadmap for Myanmar, Manila: ADB.
Government of Myanmar, National Energy Management Committee (2015), Myanmar 
Energy Master Plan. Nay Pyi Taw.
Myanmar Ministry of Electricity and Energy (2018a), Database of Oil and Gas Planning 
Department, Nay Pyi Taw.
Myanmar Ministry of Electricity and Energy (2018b), Database of Oil and Gas Planning 
Department. Data obtained from the Department of Electric Power Planning, Nay Pyi 
Taw.


243
NEW ZEALAND COUNTRY REPORT
Hien Dieu Thi Dang, Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, 
New Zealand
Seiya Endo, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
1.   Background
New Zealand is an island country in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. It is located some 
1,500 kilometres (km) east of Australia and consists of three main islands (the North 
Island, the South Island, and Stewart Island), and several smaller, mostly uninhabited 
outer islands. The land area is approximately 269,000 km2, making it smaller than Japan 
or Italy, but larger than the United Kingdom. Most of New Zealand is hilly or mountainous 
and has a mild temperate climate. The population was about 4.6 million at the end of 
2015. Although there are some light and heavy industries, foreign trade is heavily 
dependent on agriculture, tourism, forestry, and fishing. In 2015, New Zealand had a 
nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of about US$169.1 billion, or about US$36,800 
per capita. Although the latter figure is near the average of countries of the Organisation 
for Economic Co-operation and Development, New Zealand tends to be ranked highly in 
international quality-of-life surveys.
The country possesses significant indigenous energy resources, including hydro, 
geothermal, wind, natural gas, and coal. New Zealand is self-sufficient in natural gas and 
electricity and is a net exporter of coal. It has locally produced crude oil, which is generally 
exported because of its high quality and, therefore, has a high value on the international 
market. To meet its oil demand, over half of all imported oil to New Zealand in 2015 was 
produced in the Middle East. Remaining energy reserves as of 1 January 2018 include 
71.1 million barrels of oil (2P1) and 50.1 billion cubic metres of natural gas, as well as 
in-ground resources of over 15 billion tons of coal, 80% of which are South Island lignite.
 
CHAPTER 13
1 
2P values may be totalled safely using arithmetic summation since they are the midpoint of the probability 
distribution.


244
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
In 2015, New Zealand’s total primary energy supply (TPES) was around 20.6 million 
tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe). By source, oil represented the largest share at about 33%. 
Natural gas and geothermal energy were second largest, contributing around 20% and 
24%, respectively. The remainder of the primary energy supply were hydro (10%), coal 
(7%), biomass (5%), and a smaller percentage of other renewables such as wind, solar 
photovoltaic (PV), and biofuels.
Final energy consumption was about 14.1 Mtoe in 2015. By sector, transport accounted 
for the largest share at around 34% because New Zealand heavily depends on private road 
vehicles, road freight, and air transport. The share of the industry sector was the second 
largest at about 31%, whereas the total of agricultural, residential, and commercial sectors 
was 25%. The non-energy sector consumes the balance of 10%.
Total gross power generation output in 2015 was about 44.2 terawatt-hours (TWh). Hydro 
accounted for about 56% as the most utilised source, whereas geothermal represented 
the second most utilised source at about 18%, followed by natural gas (15%), coal (4%), 
and other renewables (7%). Oil is used in electricity generation only as a minor source for 
peaking and emergency supply (IEA, 2017).
2.   Modelling Assumptions
In this outlook, New Zealand’s GDP is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 2% 
between 2015 and 2040. Its population will increase by about 19% to 5.5 million by 2040, 
from 4.6 million in 2015 (Figure 13.1).
In the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, hydro use in power generation will remain 
constant, as most hydro sites have already been developed. Generation from natural 
gas-based plants is projected to increase slightly, at an annual average rate of 1.1%. 
Geothermal power generation will increase at an average annual growth rate of 2.6% and 
wind generation will continue to grow, but it will contribute only a small share of New 
Zealand’s electricity by 2040. In contrast, coal-fired power generation will disappear 
(Figure 13.2). Thermal efficiency of gas- and oil-fired power plants may not increase so 
much in the future because new large fossil fuel–based plants are not planned. Moreover, 
Genesis Energy (New Zealand’s largest energy company) has decided to decommission 
its coal-fired power plants by 2023.


245
New Zealand Country Report
In terms of primary energy consumption, the overall energy intensity of the economy 
improved in real terms at an annual average rate of 0.9% in 1990–2015.
Figure 13.1: GDP and Population (1990–2040)
GDP = gross domestic product at 2010 constant prices.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Population
GDP
billion 2010 US$
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
million persons
Figure 13.2: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
TWh
1990
Coal
Oil
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


246
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The government implemented an emissions trading scheme in 2010 and is currently 
reviewing that scheme to determine how it can best support the country in meeting its 
climate change targets and transitioning to a low-emissions economy. New Zealand, 
through its Energy and Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategies, has also set a target 
for 90% of electricity to be generated from renewable sources by 2025. The government 
also maintains a range of programmes to promote energy efficiency at home, at work, 
and in transport, as well as the development and deployment of sustainable energy 
technologies.
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Final Energy Consumption
New Zealand’s final energy consumption grew by 1.5% per year from 9.7 Mtoe in 1990 
to 14.1 Mtoe in 2015. During the same period, oil increased from 4.0 Mtoe to 6.2 Mtoe; 
electricity, from 2.4 Mtoe to 3.4 Mtoe; and natural gas, from 1.8 Mtoe to 2.7 Mtoe. On 
the other hand, coal declined from 0.7 Mtoe to 0.6 Mtoe.
 
3.1.1. 
 Business-As-Usual scenario 
In the BAU scenario, final energy consumption in 2015–2040 is projected to grow by 0.6 
Mtoe at an average rate of 0.2% per year. The ‘others’ sector (agricultural, residential, and 
commercial) will have the largest increase of 0.6 Mtoe during this period, growing at an 
average annual rate of 0.6%. Transport sector consumption is projected to decrease by 0.1 
Mtoe at an annual rate of 0.1%, but that of the industry sector is projected to increase by 
0.2 Mtoe in 2040. Non-energy sector consumption will remain constant in 2015–2040 
(Figure 13.3).


247
Figure 13.3: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Note: The ‘others’ sector includes the agricultural, residential, and commercial sectors.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
2
4
Mtoe
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
By source, final demand of electricity will steadily increase by 1.0 Mtoe between 2015 
and 2040 at an average rate of 1.1% per year. Final demand of other renewable energy 
– which includes geothermal, solar, biogas, and woody biomass used for direct-use heat 
applications – will increase slightly in 2015–2040 at an average rate of 0.1% per year. 
By 2040, final demand for oil will decrease by 0.3 Mtoe at an average rate of 0.2%; coal 
demand, by 0.1 Mtoe at an average rate of 0.4%; and natural gas, by 0.1 Mtoe at an average 
rate of 0.1% per year (Figure 13.4).
Figure 13.4: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Note: The ‘others’ sector includes geothermal, solar, biogas, and woody biomass.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
2
4
Mtoe
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
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3.1.2. 
 Alternative Policy Scenario 
In the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), final energy consumption will be slightly lower 
at 0.9 Mtoe between 2015 and 2040. Energy use in the ‘others’ sector will increase at 
an average rate of 0.2% per year, reflecting increasing use of efficient appliances in the 
residential and commercial sectors. Energy use in the industry sector is projected to 
decrease at an annual average rate of 0.2%. Energy use in the transport sector will decrease 
slightly, reflecting a shift to more energy-efficient vehicles, particularly electric vehicles. 
The sectoral final energy consumption in 2015 and 2040 in the BAU scenario and the 
APS is shown in Figure 13.5.
3.2.  Primary Energy Supply
Primary energy supply in New Zealand grew at a rate of 1.9% per year, from 12.8 Mtoe in 
1990 to 20.6 Mtoe in 2015. The fastest-growing primary fuel in absolute terms was oil, 
rising from 3.5 Mtoe in 1990 to 6.8 Mtoe in 2015. The increase in oil consumption was 
due to the rapid growth in transport energy demand.
Figure 13.5: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Mtoe
5.0
6.0
3.0
4.0
1.0
2.0
0.0
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Source: Authors’ calculations.
–18.1%
–8.5%
0.0%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–7.3%


249
Between 1990 and 2015, natural gas and coal consumption increased at an annual 
average rate of 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively. Geothermal energy use grew from 1.5 Mtoe 
in 1990 to 4.9 Mtoe in 2015 at an annual rate of 4.9% for electricity generation, while 
hydro demand for electricity production slightly increased from 2.0 Mtoe in 1990 to 2.1 
Mtoe in 2015. ‘Other’ energy sources, which include biomass, solar, wind, liquid biofuels, 
and biogas, increased by 2.3% per year.
3.2.1. 
Business-As-Usual scenario
In the BAU scenario, New Zealand’s primary energy supply will grow at an average 
annual rate of 0.7% to 24.6 Mtoe in 2040 from 20.6 Mtoe in 2015. Geothermal energy is 
projected to contribute most to the incremental growth of primary energy supply between 
2015 and 2040 and will account for 37% of total primary energy supply in 2040. Primary 
energy of ‘others’ will grow by 1% per year, reflecting mainly the expected growth in wind 
power. The share of ‘others’ will account for 7.4% of total primary energy supply in 2040. 
In contrast, primary fossil fuel will slightly decrease at an average rate of 0.2%.  Its share of 
the total will account for 46.7% in 2040, down from 59.3% in 2015. The remaining 8.9% 
of the total share in 2040 will be hydro for electricity generation, increasing at an average 
annual growth rate of 0.2% (Figure 13.6).
Figure 13.6: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
5
10
15
20
Mtoe
25
30
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The lower growth of primary energy supply relative to GDP growth will result in lower 
energy intensity in the future. From 122 toe/million USin2015,energyintensitywillimproveto89toe/millionUS in 2040. Primary energy supply per capita will remain 
constant at 4.5 toe per person in 2015–2040. Figure 13.7 shows primary energy intensity 
and energy per capita as indicators.
3.2.1. 
 Alternative Policy Scenario (APS)
In the APS, primary energy supply is projected to grow at a lower rate of 0.5% per year to 
23.2 Mtoe in 2040. Coal, oil, and gas are expected to show significant declines of 3.2%, 
1.0%, and 0.7% per year, respectively. Geothermal primary energy is expected to grow 
by 2.9% per year. ‘Others’ primary energy, which includes biomass, solar, wind, liquid 
biofuels, and biogas, is expected to grow by 1.3% per year (Figure 13.8).
BAU = Business-As-Usual, GDP = gross domestic product, toe = tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
Figure 13.7: Primary Energy Intensity and Energy per Capita Indicator,
BAU (1990–2040)
0
50
100
150
200
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
toe/ million 2010 $US
toe/ person
0
1
2
3
4
5
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 US Dollars)
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)


251
Mtoe
Figure 13.8: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Note: The ‘others’ sector includes biomass, solar, wind, liquid biofuels, biogas, hydro, and geothermal.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
20
30
10
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
522.1%
–7.0%
–19.3%
–21.5%
3.3.  Projected Energy Savings
Under the APS, energy savings could amount to 1.35 Mtoe or 5.5% less than under the 
BAU scenario in 2040. Energy savings is the difference between the primary energy supply 
in the BAU scenario and the APS (Figure 13.9).
Figure 13.9: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS 
(1990, 2015, and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
Mtoe
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
1.35Mtoe,-5.5%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The above savings in primary energy are mainly due to a switch to more efficient vehicles, 
particularly electric vehicles, in the transport sector, along with improved insulation and 
more efficient appliances in the residential and commercial sectors.
3.4.  Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the BAU scenario will decrease slightly, from 8.8 
million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 7.9 Mt-C in 2040. In the APS, CO2 emissions 
will decrease from 2015 to 2040 by 1.4% per year. The decrease reflects the switch to 
renewable energy in electricity generation, and the switch to electric vehicles in the 
transport sector. Figure 13.10 shows the difference of CO2 emissions from energy 
consumption between the BAU scenario and the APS in 2040, compared with 1990 and 
2015, in New Zealand.
4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
Although New Zealand’s primary energy intensity (energy per dollar of GDP) has been 
declining since 1990, energy use has continued to grow steadily, reflecting economic 
growth, population growth, and increasing numbers of private road vehicles.
Figure 13.10: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(1990, 2015, and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
Million Tons of Carbon
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
1.7Mt-C,-21.4%


253
New Zealand generates a high proportion of its electricity from renewable sources, 
particularly hydro, although CO2 emissions from this sector have grown with large 
investment in fossil fuel–based generation in the 1990s and 2000s.
Trading of carbon credits will incentivise investment into new renewable generation 
technologies, with geothermal and wind as prospective options, provided CO2 trading 
prices rise above the current levels. As the Acting Minister of Energy and Resources 
announced on 30 August 2011, New Zealand’s ambitious goal is for 90% of electricity 
generation to be from renewable sources by 2025. New Zealand’s large base of renewable 
generation, however, limits the room for CO2 emissions reduction in the electricity 
generation sector. In March 2016, the minister announced that the targets will be 
developed and the New Zealand Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy (NZEECS) 
2011–2016 will be replaced by mid-2019. The NZEECS’s successor will have a carbon 
reduction focus.
New Zealand has some other opportunities to improve energy efficiency, for example, 
through improving the efficiency of vehicles, improving the insulation of buildings, and 
improving the efficiency of heat production in industry, or switching to lower-carbon fuels.
The largest potential energy and carbon savings are in the transport sector. Growth in 
energy consumption in the transport sector has been slowing in recent years, mainly 
because of high fuel prices and a shift to smaller vehicles. Furthermore, reduction in 
emissions from the transport sector is possible through a switch to electric vehicles and 
increased use of biofuels. Electric vehicles are a good match for New Zealand, given the 
high proportion of electricity generated from renewables and the relatively short distances 
of average trips. Also, charging infrastructure already exists in most residential dwellings. 
In early 2018, the government  announced a package of measures designed to encourage 
the use of electric vehicles. The target is to double the number of electric vehicles every 
year through to 2021 and to do so by removing barriers that have until now prevented 
households and businesses from choosing electric cars. Current barriers include the 
limited selection of models available, a lack of widespread public charging infrastructure, 
and lack of awareness about electric vehicles.
In the building sector, the government should consider formulating and implementing 
stronger regulations to enhance the energy efficiency of new and existing buildings in 
the residential and commercial sectors. New Zealand should also consider a package of 
measures (including regulatory instruments) to improve the energy efficiency of industrial 
heat plants.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
References
International Energy Agency, (2017), World Energy Balances, Paris: IEA.


255
PHILIPPINES COUNTRY REPORT
Danilo V. Vivar, Department of Energy, Philippines
1.   Background
1.1.  Socio-economic Background
The Philippines, officially known as the Republic of the Philippines, is amidst Southeast 
Asia’s main water bodies, namely, the South China Sea on the west, Philippine Sea on 
the east, and Sulu and Celebes Sea on the southwest. The country comprises more than 
7,000 islands, situated in the western Pacific Ocean, and is composed of three main 
geographical divisions: Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. The country’s capital, officially 
known as the National Capital Region and commonly known as Metro Manila, is in Luzon. 
It is composed of 16 cities, namely, Caloocan, Las Piñas, Makati, Malabon, Mandaluyong, 
Manila, Marikina, Muntinlupa, Navotas, Parañaque, Pasay, Pasig, Quezon City (the 
country’s most populous city), San Juan, Taguig, and Valenzuela.
 In 2015, the Philippine economy sustained its 6.1% growth rate from the previous year. This 
was largely due to the vigorous economic activities in the industry and the services sectors 
during the period, which posted an annual growth rate of 6.4% and 6.9%, respectively. The 
increase in the industry sector was driven by the 5.7% growth in the manufacturing sector, 
as well as the double-digit hike of 11.6% in the construction sector. The increase in the 
services sector is attributed to the robust domestic trade and services and the boom in real 
estate businesses. Meanwhile, agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing posted a small 
0.1% increase during the period, a slowdown from its 1.7% growth registered for 2014. 
Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita1 of the country was recorded at US$2,616 per 
person in 2015. 
CHAPTER 14
1 
In constant 2010 US$ (World Bank ICP database/World Development Indicators).


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
1.2.  Policy 
The Philippine Department of Energy (DOE) has set forth strategic directions and energy 
agenda to assist President Duterte’s administration in attaining its development goals 
as envisioned in Ambisyon 2040, the blueprint of a long-term, collective vision, and 
aspirations of Filipinos, and supported by national economic strategies that will provide 
opportunities for inclusive growth. Within Ambisyon 2040, the Philippine energy sector 
plays a vital role as an indispensable factor for economic growth. Foremost amongst the 
focus of the DOE is consumer-first policies, reliability of energy supply, and affordability 
of tariffs.
To achieve security and reliability of supply, as well as the vision of a low-carbon future, 
the DOE is adopting a technology-neutral policy in coming up with an optimal energy 
mix, especially for the power sector, for the baseload (70%), mid-merit (20%), and 
peaking (10%) requirements that match the peak demand and the required 25% reserve 
requirements on a per regional grid basis to meet the 43,765 MW additional capacity 
required by 2040. In addition, efforts on the development and promotion of indigenous 
energy, such as renewable energy (RE) and hydrocarbon fuels (oil, gas, and coal) and 
tapping into clean and smart technologies, have been on the priority list to augment the 
country’s long-term energy needs. A Nuclear Energy Implementing Organization, created 
within the DOE, has recommended a firm national policy on nuclear. The country’s 
liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacities and capabilities shall be harnessed through the 
development of the J100 billion2 Batangas integrated LNG by 2020, with an initial 5 
million tons per year throughput and initial reserve capacity of 200 MW. 
The DOE is also pushing for greater energy access thru a 100% national and regional 
electrification rate by facilitating the completion of transmission projects, such as the 
Visayas–Mindanao Interconnection Project by 2020 and the Semirara–Mindoro–Panay 
Interconnection, by 2019 in support of our country’s goal of a One-Grid Philippines. 
Consistent with its drive for consumer empowerment, the DOE is implementing a Pro-
Consumer Distribution Framework for energy affordability, choice, and transparency. On 
the other hand, the finalisation of the Implementing Rules and Regulations of Executive 
Order No. 30,3 which President Duterte signed in June 2017, tags energy projects 
amounting to at least US$70 million as projects of ‘national significance’, while creating 
the Energy Investment Coordinating Council mandated to fast-track the permitting 
process of such energy projects. Aside from this, the DOE is working towards drafting 
guidelines that will assist energy stakeholders and industry participants in coming up with 
2 
Philippine peso.
3 
Full title: ‘Creating the Energy Investment Coordinating Council In Order to Streamline the Regulatory Procedures 
Affecting Energy Projects’.


257
Philippines Country Report
an Energy Sector Resiliency Compliance Plan (RCP). The RCP shall contain adaptation 
measures, both engineering and non-engineering options, to gauge infrastructure and 
human resource preparedness during and in the aftermath of disruptive events.
Below are some of the highlights of the energy sector’s plans and programmes:
Renewable Energy 
The passage of Republic Act (RA) No. 9513, or Renewable Energy Act of 2008, legally 
supports the policy and programme framework to promote the utilisation of RE resources 
and technologies. On 14 June 2011, the government unveiled the National Renewable 
Energy Program (NREP) or the ‘Green Energy Roadmap’ of the Philippines. NREP is 
anchored on the DOE’s Energy Reform Agenda, which aims to ensure greater energy 
supply security for the country. It established the policy and programme framework for 
the promotion of RE and a road map to guide efforts in realising the market penetration 
targets of each RE resource in the country. Under the updated RE road map, the target of 
15,304 megawatts (MW) installed RE capacity by 2030 is envisioned to be increased to 
20,000 by 2040. To achieve this, NREP also provides for policy mechanisms to support 
the implementation of the RE Act. These policy mechanisms include the Renewable 
Portfolio Standards (RPS), feed-in tariffs (FiT), Green Energy Option Program, and Net-
Metering for Renewable Energy.
The RPS sets the minimum percentage of generation from eligible RE resources, provided 
by generators, distribution utilities, and electric suppliers. Initially, an installation target of 
760 megawatts (MW) from RE was set for the first 3 years, from 2013 to 2015, broken 
down as follows: biomass (250 MW), run-of-river hydro (250 MW), solar (50 MW), 
wind (200 MW), and ocean (10 MW).
On the other hand, FiT provides guaranteed payments on a fixed rate per kilowatt-hour 
for RE generation, excluding generation for own use. Effective October 2015, the Energy 
Regulatory Commission has approved FiT rates, which will apply to generation from RE 
sources, particularly run-of-river hydro, biomass, wind, and solar. Effective October 
2015, the approved FiT rates for biomass, hydropower, solar, and wind are J6.63, J5.90, 
J8.69, and J7.40 per kilowatt-hour, respectively. Currently, there is no FiT rate for ocean 
energy since the technology is still for further study and not yet available in the country. 


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Alternative Fuels
Biofuels 
The DOE is aggressively implementing RA 9367, or the Biofuels Act of 2006. The law 
intends to tap the country’s indigenous agricultural resources as potential feedstock 
for biofuel to contribute to the country’s goal of achieving energy security, as well as 
augmenting farmers’ income, generating rural employment, and reducing greenhouse gas 
(GHG) emissions. 
The mandatory 1% biodiesel blend in all diesel fuel sold in the country since May 2007 was 
increased to 2% in February 2009 on a voluntary basis. On the other hand, the country 
now enjoys an accelerated use of E10 (10%) bioethanol blend as supplied by most gasoline 
retailers. The DOE, together with the National Biofuels Board, is embarking on revisiting 
and/or re-evaluating the blending requirement with due consideration on the availability 
of feedstock and to facilitate the scheduled blending of biofuels in compliance with RA 
9367. 
In terms of research and development, the DOE initiated a partnership with the academe 
to implement biofuel projects using alternative feedstocks, such as sweet sorghum, 
cassava, and macro-algae. Four projects were implemented in 2016 to introduce and 
develop alternative feedstocks of biofuels in the country: 
1. Village Scale Production of MMSU4 Hydrous Ethanol as Feedstock for R&D in Biofuel 
Trials and Anhydrous Ethanol Production, which has been completed. 
2. Establishment of a Community-Based Bioethanol Industry and Continued Research 
and Development on the Feasibility of Hydrous Bioethanol as Biofuel Blend, whose 
implementation started only in 2015. These projects are being implemented by the 
Mariano Marcos State University. 
3. Bioethanol Production from Macro-algae and Socio-ecological Implications, which is 
being implemented by the University of the Philippines-Visayas Foundation Inc. 
4. Bioethanol Production Potential of Different Cassava Varieties under Northern 
Mindanao Condition and Development of a Pilot-Scale Cassava Bioethanol Plant, 
which is being implemented by Xavier University.
4 
Mariano Marcos State University.


259
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
The DOE is keen to pursue the implementation of the Natural Gas Vehicle Program 
for Public Transport by engaging a third party to evaluate the feasibility of its project’s 
implementation. To date, the DOE is coordinating with the Department of Transportation 
– Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board – on the confirmation of 
franchise availability for the targeted 200 compressed natural gas (CNG) buses, of which 
176 franchises were declared available for the CNG buses in March 2015. Accordingly, 
the DOE mandated the Philippine National Oil Company Exploration Corporation to take 
over the operation and maintenance of CNG refilling stations. However, the procurement 
of two modular CNG stations for Biñan, Laguna and Port Area, Batangas City has yet to 
be finalised; the issue of securing CNG supply and the negative impact of the current 
volatility of diesel prices on the economic viability of operating the CNG delivery system.
AutoLPG
In terms of using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as an alternative fuel for transport, the 
total number of commercial autoLPG-fuelled taxis nationwide stood at 9,718 units 
complemented by 192 refilling stations in 2015. In 2016, the total number of converted 
taxi units decreased to about 8,415, but the total number of refilling stations remained 
at 192. The decline of taxi units was brought about by various issues that hampered the 
programme’s implementation.
Despite the setback, the DOE is exerting all efforts within its mandate to make autoLPG 
a viable option as a fuel for public transport. To sustain the programme, the DOE, in 
coordination with concerned national government agencies, promotes the mainstreaming 
of autoLPG in the transport sector through policy recommendations. In June 2016, 
the interim inter-agency AutoLPG Technical Working Group (TWG) was officially 
institutionalised through the adoption of Joint Administrative Order No. 1, Series of 2016, 
entitled ‘Creating the Technical Working Group (TWG) on the Use of AutoLPG as Fuel 
for Public Transport and for Other Related Purposes’. The TWG is to be created in key 
areas in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao to harmonise all autoLPG-related policies, rules, 
and guidelines and develop a mechanism for collaboration, cooperation, and coordination 
amongst member national government agencies for the effective implementation of the 
AutoLPG Program (DOE, 2017). 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
E-vehicles 
As of the end of 2015, 10 new companies were engaged in the manufacture of e-trikes 
and were registered under the Board of Investments’ Investment Priority Projects. This 
has translated to about J500 million of fresh investments and generated more than 500 
local jobs. For electric and hybrid vehicles, the Government of Japan coordinated with 
the Department of Foreign Affairs and the DOE for the Japan Non-Project Grant Aid 
for the Introduction of Japanese Advance Products and its System (Next-Generation 
Vehicle Package) for the Philippines. Under the terms of the grant aid, next-generation 
vehicles such as hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and electric vehicles, 
including charging stations, will be procured by the Government of Japan and delivered 
to the Philippines through the DOE for deployment to identified beneficiaries. Target 
beneficiaries of this grant aid include Philippine National Police stations in Leyte and 
Samar which were devastated by typhoon ‘Yolanda’, government agencies in Region 8 
that are instrumental to emergency response operations and rehabilitation. Vehicles were 
also allocated to non-government agencies that could assist in conducting research, 
performance testing, and promoting alternative fuel vehicles. 
Household Electrification
The provision of electricity access is now focused on households throughout the country. 
Household electrification levels increased from 89.6% in 2015 to 90.7% in 2016. This 
increase corresponds to a 3% growth in the number of households energised – from 
19,994,430 in 2015 to 20,597,320 in 2016. It also implies that 20,597,320 out of the 
potential 22,721,430 households are reaping the benefits of electricity access. On a grid 
level, Luzon has the highest electrification and this increased from 94.6% in 2015 to 95.5% 
in 2016. Visayas and Mindanao posted electrification levels of 94.0% and 74.1% in 2016, 
respectively. Aside from these are various grid and off-grid programmes that also aim to 
contribute to 100% electrification of all targeted and identified households accessible to 
the grid by 2022. These are embodied in the Household Electrification Development Plan. 


261
1.3.  Energy 
The country’s total primary energy supply (TPES)  in 2015 reached 51.3 million tons of oil 
equivalent (Mtoe). Oil accounted for the biggest share of 33.6% in the total energy supply, 
followed by coal (22.7%) and geothermal (18.5%). Total primary production reached 26.9 
Mtoe, bringing the country’s energy self-sufficiency level at 52.4% during the period.
Meanwhile, the country’s total electricity generation in 2015 reached 82.4 terawatt-hours 
(TWh). Coal-fired power plants remained the major source for power generation, with 
total installed capacity of 5,963 megawatts (MW) during the period. Coal contributed 
44.5% or 36.7 TWh in the total power generation mix of the country. Meanwhile, natural 
gas–fired power plants accounted for 22.9% or 18.9 TWh in the power mix, as the country’s 
three existing natural gas power plants had a combined installed capacity of 2,862 MW. 
On the other hand, the combined share of renewable energy in the total power generation 
mix was registered at 25.4% during the period. 
2.   Modelling Assumptions 
Five scenarios, aside from the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, were developed 
to assess the energy savings potential of the country. the BAU scenario serves as the 
reference case in the projection of energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions 
of the energy sector. the BAU scenario incorporates the energy sector’s existing energy 
policies, plans, and programmes which are being implemented and will be pursued within 
the forecast period. 
Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) 1 assessed the impact of possible policy interventions 
in terms of possible utilisation of energy efficiency technologies for future energy use, 
together with their corresponding reductions in CO2 emissions. This assumes that the 
energy saving goals of 10% in 2024, 25% in 2025, and 20% in 2035 from annual final energy 
demand of the country will be achieved through a range of measures, including intensified 
energy utilisation management programmes in the commercial and industry sectors as 
well as the continuous use of alternative fuels and technologies. The Information and 
Education Campaign Program of the DOE will also contribute to the energy-saving goals of 
the country. In the residential and commercial sectors, the use of more efficient electrical 
appliances is projected to induce savings. Energy labelling and ratings on major electrical 
appliances will also help consumers choose more efficient electrical products.
APS2 assessed the effect of more efficient thermal power generation, particularly for 
future coal and natural gas power plant technologies.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
APS3 measured the results of combined contribution of renewable energy and alternative 
fuels to the total energy supply. As part of the government’s initiative to ensure security 
of energy supply and, at the same time, to protect the environment and promote green 
technology, the targets set under the NREP were incorporated in the model to test their 
impact on the TPES. The NREP lays down the foundation for developing the country’s 
RE resources, stimulating investments in the RE sector, developing technologies, and 
providing the impetus for national and local renewable utilisation. It sets out indicative 
interim targets for the delivery of RE within the time frame. In this scenario, the aggregated 
20 GW RE capacity is assumed in 2040. 
Although the Philippines currently has no firm policy direction on the use of nuclear 
energy in power generation, APS4 considered additional capacity from nuclear power to 
determine the impact of possible long-term nuclear option in the country. Lastly, APS5 
will focus on the combined effects of the four scenarios: APS1, APS2, APS3, and APS4. 
In the model, GDP is projected to grow at an annual rate of around 6% between 2015 and 
2040. The population of the country is expected to grow at the rate of 1.5% yearly for the 
same period. Population growth is based on the adjusted 2000 census-based medium 
population projections using the results of the 2010 census of population.
Additional scenarios were simulated in the energy outlook model to investigate the 
feasibility of the 70% Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) of the 
country as a commitment to international environmental agreements for the planning 
period 2010–2030. INDC1 reflects the possibility of reducing CO2 emissions according 
to the level of INDC submission of the country, which is 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 from 
the BAU scenario level of the same period. The model for INDC1 sets the target of 70% 
CO2 reduction by 2030. On the other hand, INDC2 was simulated to look for a more 
suitable level of CO2 reduction at the end of the planning period in terms of realistic policy 
interventions and assumptions.


263
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1  Total final energy consumption (TFEC)
3.1.1.1. TFEC by sector 
The Philippines’ final energy consumption grew from 19.7 Mtoe in 1990 to 29.6 Mtoe 
in 2015 at an average annual growth rate of about 1.7%. During this period, energy 
consumption in the transport sector grew the fastest at an average annual rate of 3.5%, 
followed by the industry sector with 1.9%. The ‘others’ sector (residential and commercial, 
and agriculture, fishery, and forestry) posted a sluggish average annual growth of 0.1% per 
year.
Final energy consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.7% in the 
BAU scenario over 2015–2040. The transport sector will grow at an average rate of 3.1% 
per year. On the other hand, the industry and ‘others’ sectors are expected to grow faster 
at an average rate of 4.8% and 3.6% per year, respectively (Figure 14.1).
Figure 14.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
10.0
1990
1990
20.0
Mtoe
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2015
2015
2040
2040
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
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Despite the sluggish growth of the aggregated energy consumption of the ‘others’ (such as 
residential and commercial) sector in 1990–2015, it continued to account for the biggest 
share in the total consumption mix for the period – albeit declining from 52.1% in 1990 to 
35.6% by 2015. In the same period, the share of the transport sector in the demand mix 
increased from its level of 23.0% to 35.8%. However, across the planning period, 2015–
2040, the share of transport in the demand mix is declining and will drop to 30.9% by 
2040. On the other hand, as the energy requirement in the industry sector is expected to 
increase the fastest, its share to the demand mix is on a continuous uptrend from 23.7% in 
1990 to 25.1% in 2015 and to 32.5% by 2040. Meanwhile, the combined consumption of 
other sectors will recover from its sluggish growth to sustain its share in the consumption 
mix at an average of 36.3% across the planning horizon. 
3.1.1.2. TFEC by fuel
By fuel type, the consumption of natural gas is projected to grow the fastest at an 
average of 11.5% per year between 2015 and 2040. Increased requirements from 
industry, particularly in cement and other energy-intensive manufacturing sub-sectors, 
will contribute to the average hike in coal demand of 6.0% per year, while electricity is 
expected to maintain its steady pace with an average increment in demand of 4.3% for 
the next 25 years. On the other hand, demand for oil, mainly from the transport sector, is 
expected to grow by 3.7% during the period (Figure 14.2).
Figure 14.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Mtoe
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1990
2015
2040
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990
2015
2040
Oil
Electricity
Coal
Natural Gas
Others
Oil
Electricity
Coal
Natural Gas
Others
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
-


265
Oil will remain as the most-consumed fuel throughout the planning period, with a share 
of 49.7% in 2040 in the total demand mix, slightly lower from its 2015 level of 50.7%. 
Electricity will contribute an average share of 22.7% by 2040, making it the second-most 
consumed energy source after oil. Coal is expected to increase its share of total demand by 
almost twice its 2015 share of 7.7% to 13.3% in 2040. On the other hand, the consumption 
of other fuels such as biomass and other RE, despite their projected lacklustre growth of 
1.7% per year, will account for 13.3% of the demand mix in 2040. 
3.1.2. 
 Total primary energy supply (TPES) by fuel type
Primary energy supply in the Philippines grew at an average annual rate of 2.4%, from 26.0 
Mtoe in 1990 to 47.5 Mtoe in 2015. Amongst the major energy sources, coal grew the 
fastest at 11.5% per year. Geothermal, oil, and hydro each registered average increments 
of 2.9%, 1.7%, and 1.4%, respectively. On the other hand, primary energy supply of other 
fuels went down by 1.3 % per year.  
For 2015–2040, the country’s primary energy supply is expected to increase by 3.6% 
per year from its 2015 level to 115.8 Mtoe in 2040. Consumption of all major energy 
sources are projected to increase during the period, with coal growing the fastest at 4.9% 
per year. Natural gas is also expected to expand with a growth rate of 4.7% per year, while 
oil growth rate is estimated at 3.5% for the period in review. On the other hand, major RE 
consumption from geothermal and hydro will have an average growth rate of 2.9% and 
2.7%, respectively, for the planning period, while other fuels’ aggregated consumption 
level is expected to rise the slowest at 2.1%. 
Oil will account for the largest share in the total energy supply of the country at 33.2%, on 
average, over the planning period. Coal and natural gas, being part of the country’s major 
energy requirements, are projected to register the shares of 31.5% and 8.2%, respectively, 
by the end of 2040. During the same year, geothermal and hydro, which are mainly used 
for power generation, will register shares of 15.9% and 1.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, the 
requirement for other fuels in 2040 will contribute 9.6% to the supply mix (Figure 14.3).
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Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Figure 14.3: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Mtoe
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
1990
2015
2040
Geothermal
Others
1990
2015
2040
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
3.1.3. 
 Power generation
Total power generation in 2015 reached 82.4 TWh, more than thrice the country’s level 
in 1990. Coal maintains its spot as the major source of power generation, accounting for 
a 44.5% share in 2015. With total power generation expected to increase by 3.9% yearly 
to 215.3 TWh by 2040, the share of coal in the generation mix will likewise increase to 
48.7% for the period to reflect an average annual growth rate of 4.3% and reach the level 
of 105.0 TWh by 2040. Natural gas–fired power plants are also expected to follow the 
same trend as coal, with their generation levels rising by as much as three times its 2015 
level of 18.9 TWh to 55.8 TWh in 2040, about one-fourth of total generation during the 
same year. Major RE sources, such as hydro and geothermal, are expected to contribute 
an aggregate share of 18.1% (8.2% share for hydro and 9.9% share for geothermal) to the 
country’s generation mix in 2040, as output grows at an average annual rate of 2.9% and 
2.7%, respectively. Generation from other energy (solar, wind, and biomass) is expected 
to increase at an average annual rate of 7.7%. Meanwhile, declining use of oil in the power 
sector is evident in its paltry average growth of 0.9% for the planning period (Figure 14.4).


267
The thermal efficiencies of coal, oil, and natural gas under the BAU scenario are projected 
to be constant for the whole planning period. Coal thermal efficiency is set at 34%, while 
oil and natural gas power plant efficiencies are set at around 35% and 55%, respectively 
(Figure 14.5).
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
Figure 14.4: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
TWh
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1990
2015
2040
Coal
Natural Gas
Geothermal
Hydro
Oil
Other
Coal
Natural Gas
Geothermal
Hydro
Oil
Other
1990
2015
2040
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
-
Figure 14.5: Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
0.0
1990
10.0
%
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2015
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculations.
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3.1.4. 
 Energy indicators
Under the BAU scenario, the energy intensity of the country tends to decrease at a rate 
of 2.3% for the period 2015–2040. Energy intensity is the ratio of total primary energy 
over GDP. The significant reduction of energy intensity is attributable to the government’s 
efforts in promoting energy conservation and efficiency in the different sectors of the 
economy. Meanwhile, energy per capita has an increasing trend from 0.47 toe/person in 
2015 to 0.78 toe/person in 2040, due to the improvement in the standard of living and 
income of the people.
Income elasticity of energy is the relationship between changes in the primary energy 
supply and the changes in GDP. The income elasticity for 2015–2040 is expected to be 
at approximately 0.6, indicating that energy demand is rising less than proportionately to 
income.
3.2  Alternative Policy Scenario 
As mentioned, the assumptions in the APS were analysed separately to determine the 
individual impact of each assumption in APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and the combination 
of all these assumptions (APS5).
 
Figure 14.6: Energy Intensity, Energy Per Capita, and Income 
Elasticity of Energy (1990, 2015, and 2040)
1990
1990 - 2015
2040
Energy Intensity
Energy Per Capita
TOE/Million 2010 US$
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.1
-
0.2
0.9
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Energy Elasticity
0.7
0.8
TOE/Person
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
2015 - 2040
2015
Source: Author’s calculations.


269
3.2.1. 
 TPES
Figure 14.7 shows the changes in the TPES in all the scenarios. APS1, which assumes 
improved efficiency of final energy consumption, is projected to increase at a rate of 3% 
per year as levels reach 98.4 Mtoe by 2040. Compared to the BAU scenario, APS1 is 
lower by 17.4 Mtoe, or 15%, indicating the effectiveness of energy efficiency measures 
implemented in various sectors of the economy.
Based on the assumption of more efficient thermal power generation, APS2’s TPES will 
be lower by 4.7 Mtoe or 4% compared to the BAU scenario as it will reach 111.06 Mtoe 
in 2040. The bulk of the reduction would be from coal as more efficient power plants are 
assumed to be used to generate power in this scenario.
Under APS3, where the bulk of the increase in the contribution of RE will be in the form of 
variable RE (solar and wind), TPES is lower by 3 Mtoe or 2.6% compared to BAU. This is 
mainly due to the slowdown in the use of geothermal energy in power generation vis-à-vis 
hydro and other RE. Under APS3, aggregate generation output from other RE (solar, wind, 
biomass, etc.) alone is expected to increase by as much as 10.5% per year, outpacing the 
2.4% annual growth in geothermal generation output. This brings the TPES levels under 
APS3 to 112.8 Mtoe by 2040. 
Figure 14.7: Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply (2040)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Mtoe
38.8
9.5
18.4
11.2
31.8
6.8
16.6
10.8
38.8
8.7
18.4
10.7
38.6
8.8
17.1
11.7
38.8
8.7
18.1
11.1
4.1
31.6
4.9
17.1
3.8
11.4
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Natural Gas
Geothermal
Hydro
Oil
Others
Nuclear
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
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With the entry of nuclear in the energy mix, APS4 is the only scenario where the TPES 
is slightly higher than the BAU scenario by about 0.5 Mtoe, or 0.4%. This is due to the 
assumption that the thermal efficiency of nuclear power plants is 33% lower than the 
efficiencies of natural gas and coal power plants at 35.0% and 55.0%, respectively.
Combining all scenarios, the country’s TPES under APS5 will grow at an average annual 
rate of 2.8% to reach 95.05 Mtoe in 2040. The combined effects of APS1 to APS4 is 
expected to yield the biggest reduction of 20.8 Mtoe, making the level of energy supply 
under APS5 17.9% lower than under the BAU scenario. This indicates the effectiveness of 
combining various energy assumptions – improved efficiency in the energy demand and 
thermal power generation, as well as higher contribution of RE and entry of nuclear in the 
supply mix – to achieve the feasible level of the TPES by 2040.
3.2.2. 
 Total electricity generation
Figure 14.8 shows the total electricity generation in 2040 in all scenarios. Due to the 
efficiency measures resulting in lower electricity demand, APS1’s total generation output 
was at 172.3 TWh as all fuels register reduced generation output vis-à-vis the BAU 
scenario. This makes APS1’s level at 43.1 TWh or 20% less than 215.3 TWh under the 
BAU scenario, with lower shares for fossil-fired power plants, particularly for natural gas 
and coal.
Figure 14.8: Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation (2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hours.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
0
50
100
150
200
250
TWh
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Natural Gas
Geothermal
Hydro
Oil
Others
Nuclear
105.0
83.5
105.0
97.1
94.8
62.2
6.6
29.3
24.2
19.9
15.7
14.4
7.4
7.1
7.3
56.5
51.4
50.8
17.6
24.2
17.5
21.4
19.9
21.1
7.5
15.7
8.0
15.9
7.3
38.4
16.6
19.4
7.1
7.4
55.8
17.6
21.4
8.2


271
APS2, APS3, and APS4 yield the same total generation output with the BAU scenario. 
However, under APS2, coal share will increase slightly by less than a TWh compared 
with the BAU scenario level. This is because of the entry of highly efficient coal-fired 
power plants, which, although operating with higher thermal efficiency by 2% compared 
with conventional coal plants, will contribute significantly to the generation mix. Power 
generation from coal is projected to reach 105.0 TWh level by 2040 for APS2, slightly 
higher compared with its level in the BAU scenario. This is the same case with the power 
generation from natural gas that will also increase slightly in APS2 from the BAU scenario. 
On the total account, the effect of higher thermal efficiencies of fossil fuel plants is a slight 
reduction on the aggregated variable RE generation output for APS2. On the other hand, 
the shares of generation from fossil fuels are lower for the two other scenarios, as they are 
displaced by RE for APS3 and entry of nuclear in the generation mix for APS4. 
While APS5’s total generation output is equal to that of APS1 for 2040 at 172.3 TWh, 
there is a significant reduction in the aggregate level of fossil fuels’ power output from the 
BAU scenario to APS5 at 41.7 %, or from 168.1 TWh to 98.02 TWh.
3.2.3. 
 Total CO2 emissions
In terms of reduction of CO2 emissions, the energy efficiency assumption in APS1 will 
generate 222.6 million metric tons of carbon (Mt-C), which is 49.0 Mt-C or 18.0% lower 
than BAU for 2040. The decrease in CO2 indicates that the energy-saving goals, action 
plans, and policies in the promotion of the energy efficiency and conservation programme 
will be effective in reducing CO2 emissions (Figure 14.9). 
Figure 14.9: Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions (2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
Mt-C
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
144.6
104.8
22.3
122.9
83.8
15.9
132.2
104.8
20.4
136.6
104.4
20.7
134.4
104.8
20.4
96.0
83.8
11.5
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
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Under APS2, total CO2 emissions are lower by 14.2 Mt-C or 5.2% relative to the BAU 
scenario’s 271.6 Mt-C. In APS3, the reduction is the least amongst all alternative 
scenarios at 10 Mt-C. In APS4, the reduction will account for the level of 12.1 Mt-C or 
4.4% compared with the BAU scenario.
Combining all the assumptions in APS1, APS2, APS3, and APS4 (APS5) will give the 
aggregate reduction of CO2 emissions from the BAU scenario at 80.3 Mt-C or 29.6%. 
3.2.4. 
 Final energy consumption
Figures 14.10 to 14.12 show the levels of the TFEC in 2040 between the BAU scenario 
and the APS (APS5), by sector and by fuel. Due to the improved economy-wide energy 
efficiency that will yield higher energy savings on the demand side under the APS, final 
energy demand is at 63.8 Mtoe, which is 10.4 Mtoe or 14% lower than the BAU scenario.
Figure 14.10: Comparison of Total Final Energy Consumption in 2040, BAU and APS 
Mtoe
19.7
0
20
40
60
80
100
29.6
74.2
63.8
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
-10.4 Mtoe, -14.0%
Figure 14.11: Comparison of Final Energy Consumption in 2040, BAU and APS
Mtoe
7.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
25.0
24.1
22.1
10.6
22.9
18.5
10.5
25.2
21.3
1.048
1.991
1.991
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
–17.9%
–7.3%
0.0%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–1.2%


273
All economic sectors are expected to contribute to the aggregate reduction in energy 
demand under the APS. The transport sector will cut its demand by as much 19.5% to 
reach 18.5 Mtoe, from 22.9 Mtoe in the BAU scenario. Energy demand from the ‘others’ 
sector (residential, commercial, agriculture, fishery, and forestry) at 21.3 Mtoe is 15.4% 
lower than its BAU level of 25.2 Mtoe. The industry sector will also contribute 8.5% 
reduction – from 24.1 Mtoe under the BAU scenario to 22.1 Mtoe in the APS.
The impact of improved efficiency is evident in the 19% and 20% decline in the consumption 
of oil and electricity under the APS (APS5) vis-à-vis BAU (Figure 14.12).
3.3  Intended Nationally Determined Contributions Scenario
Aside from the assumptions set forth under the APSs, the country’s commitment to 
international environmental agreements in terms of its INDC was likewise studied. 
Two simulations were done for this purpose: INDC1 seeks to determine the effect of 
a 70% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 from BAU, while INDC2 looks into more 
considerable CO2 emissions reduction targets by 2040. In INDC1, to be able to reduce 
CO2 emissions by 70% in 2030, fuel substitution, such as from fossil fuels to electricity 
and biomass, was assumed from 2025 to 2035 in the demand sectors. On the other hand, 
more considerable assumptions were made in INDC2, such as 25%–30% energy efficiency 
target from 2025 to 2035 and 10% electricity use in the transport, industry, and services 
sectors to substitute gasoline and diesel demand. For INDC2 power generation, it was 
Figure 14.12: Comparison of Final Energy Consumption 
by Fuel Type in 2040, BAU and APS 
0.0
2015
5.0
Mtoe
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
25.0
2040
Coal
BAU
APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
2.3
35.0
45.0
40.0
50.0
9.9
9.9
2015
2040
Oil
BAU
APS
15.0
36.9
29.9
2015
2040
Natural Gas
BAU
APS
0.1
0.8
0.8
2015
2040
Electricity
BAU
APS
5.8
16.8
13.5
2015
2040
Others
BAU
APS
6.4
9.8
9.8
–19.0%
–20.0%
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assumed that all additional capacities from coal and natural gas power plants by 2022 
until 2040 will be of highly efficient technologies and more contribution of RE generation 
output to compensate for the significant increase in electricity demand. At the end, the 
energy savings potential of INDC2 at 25.5 Mtoe is higher by 4 percentage points compared 
with APS5 (20.8 Mtoe) but with much higher CO2 reduction from the BAU scenario by 
38.2% in 2040 compared with APS5 with 29.6% CO2 reduction at the same period. 
3.3.1  TPES 
INDC1 yields a TPES level of 64.5 Mtoe, 44.3% (51.3 Mtoe) less than that of the BAU 
scenario. Under INDC1, supply of fossil fuels will significantly decline by 70.6% from the 
BAU level. On the other hand, the reduction on INDC2 supply level compared with the 
BAU scenario is projected at 22%. Comparing also the supply level between INDC2 and 
the APS, the difference is only 4.8 Mtoe, with INDC2 lower by 5% at the 90.3 Mtoe level 
of energy supply. Despite the significant reduction in the aggregate supply of fossil fuels in 
INDC2 at 37%, this was compensated by the higher production of RE compared with the 
BAU scenario and APS5.  
0.0
20.0
Mtoe
40.0
Figure 14.13: Comparison of Total Primary Energy 
Supply in 2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5)
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
INDC1
12.2
9.1
BAU
36.5
38.8
9.5
1.5
18.4
11.2
3.7
18.4
15.5
3.1
3.6
INDC2
21.5
26.3
5.8
3.8
2.1
17.6
13.1
APS5
24.2
31.6
4.9
3.8
2.1
17.1
11.4
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Geothermal
Others
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,  
 
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.


275
3.3.3  Final energy demand
The CO2 emissions reduction targets for both INDC1 and INDC2 put a cap on final 
energy demand, resulting in lower levels  compared to APS5. However, energy demand in 
transport, which has been the primary source of CO2 emissions amongst end-use sectors, 
has been reduced to 7.4 Mtoe under INDC1, which is considerably lower  compared to 
the sector’s historical consumption levels. This contributes to the halving of final energy 
demand for INDC1 at 35.4 Mtoe from the BAU scenario’s 74.2 Mtoe. On the other hand, 
the demand mix of INDC2, which totals 57.6 Mtoe, is almost similar with the levels of 
each end-use sector from that of the BAU scenario and APS5.
3.3.2  Total CO2 Emissions 
INDC1 will produce the least amount of CO2 emissions at 74.7 Mt-C amongst the 
four  scenarios. This will reflect 70% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2030 and 72.5 CO2 
emission by 2040 from BAU. On the other hand, INDC2’s CO2 emissions reduction at 
167.9 Mt-C in 2040 is lesser by 55.4% compared with that of INDC1 during the period, 
while only 12.2% higher reduction from APS5. The CO2 emissions reduction of INDC1, 
INDC2, and APS5 from the BAU scenario will register at 72.5%, 38.2%, and 29.6%, 
respectively, by 2040. 
Figure 14.14: Comparison of Total CO2 in 2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5) 
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
Mt-C
BAU
144.6
104.8
22.3
INDC1
48.9
17.2
8.7
INDC2
86.4
67.8
13.7
INDC2
96.0
83.8
11.5
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
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Figure 14.15: Comparison of Final Energy Consumption 
by Sector in 2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5)
Mtoe
BAU
24.1
22.9
25.2
2.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
INDC1
14.0
7.4
12.0
2.0
INDC2
20.3
16.0
19.2
2.0
APS5
22.1
18.5
21.3
2.0
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,  
 
 
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Industry
Others
Transport
Non-energy
In Figure 14.16, the effect of 70% CO2 reduction in INDC1 will bring down the aggregate 
consumption of oil and coal by 80.3% from its BAU scenario level. The scenario may not 
be possible without other fuels to substitute this aggregate level of consumption of oil and 
coal. In particular, coal consumption in INDC1 will be reduced to a mere 1.4 Mtoe by 
2040 or an almost sevenfold reduction from the BAU scenario, while oil will account for 
an almost fivefold reduction. For INDC2, an assumption to substitute smaller reduction 
of fossil fuels in the demand sectors will bring down the coal and oil demands by 32% to 
33% from the BAU scenario. INDC2’s electricity demand is higher by 6.5% compared with 
the APS5 level to compensate reduction in fossil-fuel demand. Meanwhile, oil demand in 
INDC2 will be reduced significantly compared with the BAU scenario and APS5 but will 
still be the most dominant fuel in the demand sector as could also be observed in the BAU 
scenario and APS5.


277
4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
Amongst the fossil fuels under the BAU scenario, coal supply will register the fastest growth 
rate at 4.9% throughout the planning period. This is due to the significant contribution of 
coal in power generation, which corresponds to the increasing demand for electricity at 
4.3% average annual rate. Towards 2040, coal supply level will almost be at equal level 
with the country’s most dominant fuel, oil, that is mainly used in the transport sector. The 
aggregated share of RE at 26.8% is behind by 14.8% of the projected contribution of coal 
in the supply mix. The result of the study indicates that the significant use of coal during 
the planning period is inevitable. Given the current policy of the government to fully 
support the attainment of its development goals as envisioned in Ambisyon 2040, which 
covers the country’s industrialisation and urbanisation goal within the framework of the 
long-term Philippine Development Plan, the DOE is focused on achieving security and 
reliability of energy supply in anticipation of the long-term economic development of the 
country. This is to support the vision of a low-carbon future and adopting a technology-
neutral policy in coming up with an optimal energy mix. At this point, a reliable source 
of energy for power generation such as coal is indispensable; in fact, majority of the 
committed capacities from the private power projects are coal power projects (more than 
70% of the committed capacities). Consistent with the results of the study, the share 
Figure 14.16: Comparison of Final Energy Consumption 
by Fuel Type in 2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5)
Mtoe
BAU
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
INDC1
INDC2
APS5
36.9
16.8
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,  
 
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculations. 
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Natural gas
9.9
0.8
9.8
7.8
12.1
1.4
0.8
13.3
24.5
14.4
6.7
0.8
11.1
29.9
13.5
9.9
0.8
9.8
Others
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of coal in power generation by 2040 will account for almost half of the total generation 
output. Natural gas will comprise one-fourth of the generation output while the remaining 
shares will be sourced from oil and RE. Thus, it is important for the government to push 
for more diversification of energy sources in a feasible manner to achieve an ideal energy 
mix that would be consistent with the goal of the energy sector on energy security. Coal-
fired power plants provide reliable baseload capacity given their dominant share in power 
generation,  while avoiding or controlling their increased capacity in power generation will 
hamper the stability of electricity supply.  The government still needs to safeguard the 
environment through policy interventions such as promoting the use of highly efficient 
and clean coal technologies in power generation and non-power industries. In fact, coal 
demand in the industry sector will be the third highest in utilisation level by 2040 after 
oil and electricity at 13.3% share of the total demand mix. However, there is an issue in 
implementing the policy, considering the power sector is a deregulated industry. Under 
this condition, the government has limited control in choosing the type of power plants 
to be built since the power industry is already deregulated and led by private investment. 
It can be addressed somehow by formulating a fuel mix policy for power generation to 
guide and inform investors and other key players of the industry on the preferred power 
mix of the country for long-term sustainability of the country’s power sector. This policy 
might have been in conflict with technology-neutral policies. However, the role of the 
government here is only to provide a check-and-balance on the share of fuel types in the 
power mix. Each fuel should not be more than the required level that it could dictate the 
price of electricity and disrupt supply that will more likely cause a total power crisis. 
On the demand side, oil will register the biggest share in the final energy consumption 
by almost half of the demand mix at the end of the planning period. This will happen 
despite the current effort of the government to promote the energy efficiency and 
conservation programme and alternative fuel and technology development. The results 
of the model indicate that the share of oil in the total demand is constantly at around 
50% across different scenarios. It would be appropriate for the government to focus on 
the promotion of alternative fuels in the transport sector to substitute partly and directly 
the use of oil in the sector with the extended implementation of alternative fuels in the 
transport programme.
Moreover, the use of alternative technologies and fuels such as electric vehicles, 
compressed natural gas (CNG), autogas (LPG for transportation), and biofuels for 
transport will temper the utilisation of oil in the country in the future, thus, reducing the 
negative impacts of oil price volatility in the world market. The government’s efforts in 
the promotion of alternative fuels in the transport sector will help not only in reducing 
the energy requirements but also in lessening GHG emissions that mostly come from the 
transport sector.


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On the other hand, under the APS, energy and CO2 intensity will continue to decline 
from 2015 to 2040, although CO2 emissions per energy consumption will increase 
corresponding to the increased share of fossil fuels. In this regard, the government should 
strictly implement plans and/or programmes for energy efficiency and conservation 
that will address volatile oil prices and their inflationary effect on the prices of basic 
commodities, and change the economic structure of the country to rely more on its 
services sector rather than on energy-intensive industries. This is also consistent with the 
target of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) to reduce its aggregate energy 
intensity (energy demand per unit of GDP) by 45% by 2035, with 2005 as the base year. 
Improvement in the energy intensity of the Philippines is expected to be driven in part 
by the country’s changing economic structure, relying more on its service sector than on 
energy-intensive industries. 
In response to the results of this study, the government should pursue its programmes and 
projects that will further increase and enhance the use of indigenous, clean, and efficient 
alternative fuels. The full implementation of the Renewable Energy Act of 2008 to expand 
the utilisation and development of indigenous energy, such as geothermal, hydro, solar, 
wind, and other clean energy, will not only promote the use of sustainable energy but will 
also lessen the country’s need for energy imports. FiT, RPS, and other policy mechanisms 
provided under the law will boost the use of RE.
 Special attention should also be given to the industry sector since its energy demand is 
growing more than the transport sector and could have high potential energy savings. In 
fact, based on the study results, the demand of the industry sector will surpass that of the 
transport sector as early as 2035 across different scenarios.
Currently, the Philippines has a specific quantitative energy-saving requirement as 
provided under Administrative Order (AO) No. 110, Directing the Institutionalisation of 
a Government Energy Management Program. The AO requires the reduction of at least 
10% in the cost of fuel and electricity consumption, amongst others, in the government. 
This can be duplicated or expanded to other sectors if an existing energy conservation law 
will require strict regulation and implementation. 
In addition, there is a need to pass the Energy Conservation Law to realise the targets 
set by the government. The law will institutionalise energy conservation and enhance the 
efficient use of energy in the country.
Moreover, looking at the integration of all the scenarios, the result is effective in reducing 
the carbonisation ratio. This indicates that the government should set the enabling 
environment to ensure that policies will strictly be implemented.
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Finally, it is important to ratify commitment to international environmental agreements 
like the INDC and Nationally Determined Contributions that will direct member countries 
to pursue reduction of CO2 emissions under a certain framework. Based on the results of 
the study, nearly 35% could be a suitable level of CO2 emissions reduction in the country 
by 2040.
 
References
Congress of the Philippines (2007), Republic Act No. 9367, Biofuels Act of 2006. 
Quezon City.
Congress of the Philippines (2008), Republic Act No. 9513, Renewable Energy Act of 
2008. Quezon City. 
DOE (2016a), Energy Sector Accomplishment Report 2016, Taguig: DOE.
DOE (2016b), 2015 Philippine Energy Situationer, Taguig, Manila: Energy Policy and 
Planning Bureau–DOE.
DOE (2016c), 2015 Philippine Energy Supply and Demand Outlook, Taguig, Manila: 
DOE
Department of Energy (DOE) (2017), Philippine Energy Plan 2017 Update, Taguig, 
Manila: DOE.
Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA) (2016), Philippine Statistical Yearbook. Manila: 
PSA.
World Bank (2015), World Bank ICP database/World Development Indicators, 
Washington, DC: World Bank.


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SINGAPORE COUNTRY REPORT
Loi Tian Sheng Allan, Energy Studies Institute, 
National University of Singapore, Singapore
1.   Background
Singapore is a small island-state in Southeast Asia, located along the Strait of Malacca 
between Malaysia and Indonesia. It is the most urbanised and industrialised country in 
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with a per capita gross domestic 
product (GDP) of $52,200 (in constant 2010 US$) in 2015. Singapore submitted its 
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the Secretariat of the United 
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on 3 July 2015 (NCCS, 2015) and has 
signed off to the Paris Agreement as of 22 April 2016 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2016). 
Singapore’s INDC highlights its intentions to reduce its emissions intensity by 36% from 
2005 levels by 2030. In addition to emissions intensity targets, Singapore also intends to 
stabilise emissions with the aim of peaking around 2030. Under the Copenhagen Accord, 
Singapore also has a voluntary target of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 7%–
11% below Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario levels in 2020 (NCCS, 2012), which will 
be increased to 16% if there is a global agreement on climate change. 
2.   Singapore’s Policy Initiatives
The Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change was created in 2007 to facilitate a 
whole-of-government approach to addressing climate change–related issues. Chaired 
by Teo Chee Hean, Deputy Prime Minister and Co-ordinating Minister for National 
Security and Minister of Home Affairs, the committee was attended by the ministers for 
the environment and water resources, finance, foreign affairs, national development, 
trade and industry, as well as transport, to provide an overarching strategic planning for 
Singapore’s mitigation efforts. 
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Switching to cleaner fuels, energy efficiency improvements and the promotion of 
alternative sources of energy were highlighted as the main tenets of Singapore’s mitigation 
policies. These policies were developed as part of the country’s national policy framework 
to support its multipronged objectives of achieving economic competitiveness, energy 
security, and environmental sustainability (Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2007) all at 
the same time.
2.1.  Fuel Switch
Singapore started switching from oil to natural gas as a source for power generation in 
the early 2000s. Today, natural gas remains a key component of the country’s power 
generation mix. Imports into Singapore increased by 2.4% in 2016 and, in 2017, natural gas 
represented 95.2% of the fuel mix for electricity generation in Singapore (Energy Market 
Authority, 2018). Petroleum products, coal, and others accounted for the remaining 
0.7%, 1.2%, and 2.9%, respectively (Energy Market Authority, 2018). In a consultation 
paper released by the Energy Market Authority in 2015, natural gas is expected to remain 
dominant in Singapore’s power sector in the foreseeable future.
To expand the country’s import capability and sourcing options for liquefied natural 
gas (LNG), Singapore has already commenced commercial operations with its newly 
constructed LNG terminal in May 2013. This currently has a throughput capacity of 
6 million tons per year (Boon, 2013) and 9 million metric tons per annum (Mtpa) 
thereafter in 2017 with a fourth storage tank to be constructed. The current aims are to 
increase the targeted annual capacity to 11 Mtpa by 2018 (Veras, 2016).
2.2.  Promoting Solar Energy
Singapore has been active in promoting solar energy as the only alternative renewable 
source of energy to meet its needs. Although solar technology is not subsidised, there is 
policy support for the deployment of solar resources in the form of removal of non-market 
barriers; system support in terms of facilitating system integration of the intermittency 
of solar energy without compromising grid stability; and continued support for research, 
development, and demonstration efforts aimed at reducing costs and improving 
efficiency of solar modules. As part of the policy objective of accelerating the scale of 
solar deployment in Singapore, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) awarded in 
2015 a public tender for the installation and management of 76 megawatt-peak (MWp) 
of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels under the SolarNova programme (HDB, 2015a). The 
SolarNova programme, led by the Economic Development Board (EBD), is a government-


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led programme that aims to promote solar deployment through aggregating solar demand 
across the public sector (Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2014). The EDB and the Public 
Utilities Board have also partnered to install floating PV platforms in reservoirs (Channel 
News Asia, 2015). Future initiatives will involve the installation of solar-ready roofs on all 
HDB flats with at least 400 square metres of open roof space, with the HDB committing to 
install at least 220 MWp of solar panels at about 5,500 HDB flats by 2020 (HDB, 2017).
Beyond these forms of support, Singapore also has a national target of deploying 350 
MWp of solar PV by 2020 and extending the share of solar PV to 8% of the country’s peak 
electricity demand by 2030 (NCCS, 2016a). 
In 2010, Singapore had explored the nuclear option with a nuclear energy pre-feasibility 
study. The results of the study, which was confirmed in a 2012 statement from the 
Ministry of Trade and Industry, was that nuclear energy was not suitable for deployment, 
given that the high risks associated with the dense urban population of Singapore outweigh 
the benefits (Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2012). However, Singapore will continue 
to monitor technological developments and may revisit the option in the future. In the 
meantime, it shall cooperate with international and regional players to actively tackle 
issues regarding nuclear safety and emergency planning. 
2.3.  Energy Efficiency Improvements
Energy efficiency is another integral part of Singapore’s mitigation effort. An inter-agency 
Energy Efficiency Programme Office, led by the National Environment Agency and the 
Energy Market Authority, was established in May 2007 to help promote and facilitate the 
adoption of energy efficiency across sectors in Singapore (Energy Efficiency Programme 
Office, 2013a). Across the nation, energy efficiency improvements are promoted through 
a plethora of standards and regulations, public awareness, and messaging as well as the 
adoption of more efficient appliance stock.
Households
Households account for about one-sixth of the electricity consumed in Singapore 
(NCCS, 2016b) and are, thus, a key sector for energy efficiency policies. The Mandatory 
Energy Labelling Scheme (MELS) and Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) 
are two pillars of residential energy efficiency policies. The MELS, introduced in 2008, 
imposes compulsory display of energy labels on relevant household appliances. This 
requirement was imposed on all registrable air conditioners and refrigerators, as well as 
smaller appliances such as television sets, clothes dryers, and lighting. MELS serves to 
inform consumers and help them identify, and thereby purchase, more energy-efficient 


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appliances. MEPS is a supply-side policy that complements MELS by prohibiting the sale 
of appliance models that do not meet the minimum specified energy efficiency levels. 
They help consumers avoid being locked into using inefficient appliances with high 
operating costs and encourage suppliers to import more energy-efficient appliances as 
innovation progresses over time. Both MELS and MEPS are constantly evaluated and 
revised to ensure policy efficacy and efficiency. 
In addition to MELS and MEPS, various public messaging campaigns aimed at targeting 
behavioural change in households were also introduced. These initiatives target both the 
initial purchasing decision as well as behaviour at the consumption stage. For example, 
the Life Cycle Calculator improves consumer awareness during the purchasing stage, 
while the Home Energy Auditor motivates energy efficiency behavioural change when 
consuming electricity at home. Recent public messaging campaigns have also began 
targeting residential interior design with the Resource Efficiency Guide for New Home 
Owners.
Since the early 2010s, the relevant ministries are studying the feasibility and cost–benefit 
of utilising smart home technologies, such as the home energy management systems, 
to reduce residential energy consumption. Residents in the Yuhua estate in the west of 
Singapore will be the first as a pilot estate to experience such technologies, where smart 
features will be progressively implemented until 2018 (HDB, 2015b). Subsequently, the 
rollout of full retail contestability, where residential consumers can choose their own 
electricity supplier in the second half of 2018 (Tang See Kit, 2018), could provide further 
support for conservation efforts should consumers become more aware of their own 
electricity load profiles (Loi, Owen, and Ke, 2017).
Transport
Energy efficiency in the transport sector is governed by three complementary policy 
objectives: (i) reducing private transport (ii) promoting public transport ridership, and (iii) 
promoting non-motorised transport.
The Vehicle Quota System regulates the growth of vehicle population in Singapore. 
Under this system, anyone who wishes to register or buy a new vehicle in Singapore must 
first obtain a certificate of entitlement, which represents a right to vehicle ownership 
for 10 years (Land Transport Authority, 2014a). In view of the land constraints on road 
expansion, the annual vehicle population growth rate has decreased to 0% effectively 
from February 2018 onwards (Land Transport Authority, 2017a). Since 2012, the Fuel 
Economy Labelling Scheme has mandated fuel economy labels to be affixed to vehicles 
at the point of sale. This was complemented by the Carbon Emissions-based Vehicle 


285
Scheme, introduced in 2013 (Land Transport Authority, n.d.), and was in place until 
December 2017. This scheme qualified all new cars and imported used cars with low 
carbon emissions of less than or equal to 135 g carbon emissions per kilometre (CO2/
km) for vehicle tax rebates of S$5,000–S30,000.Carswithhighcarbonemissionsofmorethan185gCO2/kmalsoincurredacorrespondingregistrationsurchargebetweenS5,000 and S20,000.Taxiswereimposedhighersurchargestoadoptloweremissionmodelsfortheirfleet(LandTransportAuthority,2015).ThisschemewasreplacedinJanuary2018bythenewVehicularEmissionsLabel,whichoffersrebatesandsurchargesbasedontheworst−performingpollutantoutoffive.ThesechargesrangefromS30,000 
(rebates) to S$30,000 (surcharge), depending on the band category in which the new car 
or taxi is being purchased (Land Transport Authority, 2017b).
Public transport is the most energy-efficient mode of travel. Under the Land Transport 
Masterplan, Singapore targets to achieve a 75% public transport modal share during peak 
hours by 2030, up from 66% in 2014. In a nutshell, the promotion of public transport 
ridership is achieved by ensuring the efficiency and reliability of public transport services. 
In addition to constantly upgrading and expanding the current fleet of public transport 
vehicles, actions were also taken to expand existing metro lines and outreach. Mandatory 
give-way operations also ensure bus priority on the roads. The Park & Ride scheme was 
also initiated to ensure a seamless switch between private and public transport. 
The government will create more connections through the construction of two new rail 
lines and three new extensions. By 2030, the rail network would have doubled from the 
existing 178 km in 2013 to about 360 km, and 8 in 10 homes would be located within 
a 10-minute walk from a train station. Public buses would connect commuters to even 
more places, with new bus routes added to the bus network. Singapore is adding about 80 
new bus services under the Bus Service Enhancement Programme. 
To improve the overall experience of commuters, especially in the first and last miles of 
their journeys, the government will also build more than 200 km of sheltered walkways. 
More integrated transport hubs will also be built to enable commuters to switch between 
different types of transport easily, with convenient access to retail, dining, and other 
lifestyle services. Cycling and walking are also encouraged through public messaging 
campaigns. Specifically, the intra-town cycling programme launched by the Land 
Transport Authority promotes cycling through designated specialised road cycling paths. 
The island-wide cycling path network will eventually be well over 700 km in length. In 
addition, the electric vehicle pilot car-sharing programme is in progress, which will see the 
introduction of possibly 1,000 electric vehicles and charging infrastructure by (2020) to 
promote their use (Land Transport Authority, 2014b).
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Buildings
At the design stage, energy efficiency in buildings is governed by the Building and 
Construction Authority (BCA) of Singapore’s Green Mark Scheme. Launched in January 
2005 to promote environment sustainability in the construction and real estate sectors, 
the Green Mark Scheme targets environment-friendly designs in buildings, with a focus 
on energy efficiency, water efficiency, environmental protection, indoor environmental 
quality, and other green features focusing on landlord’s contributions in ‘going green’ (E2 
Singapore, 2016). Since April 2008, all new buildings and existing buildings undergoing 
major retrofitting works with a gross floor area above 2,000 square metres must meet 
Green Mark certified standards. The BCA Green Mark Scheme promotes the adoption 
of green building technologies and reduces the use of electricity in the commercial 
sector via efficiency improvements and conservation. Buildings exceeding the minimum 
requirements are also awarded higher accreditations, such as the Platinum Green Mark, 
which serves to promote exceptional performance. Technical and financial support 
mechanisms are also provided to motivate continued energy efficiency upgrades. The 
Building Energy Efficiency Roadmap, published jointly by the National Climate Change 
Secretariat and the National Research Foundation in 2014, evaluates existing energy 
efficiency technologies for buildings, hence, providing technical expertise in the area. 
Various financial support mechanisms, such as Green Mark Incentive Scheme for Existing 
Buildings and Premises and the Building Retrofit Energy Efficiency Financing scheme, 
are available to provide co-financing for retrofitting and energy efficiency upgrades. The 
target is for at least 80% of the buildings in Singapore to achieve BCA Green Mark certified 
rating by 2030 (BCA, 2013). The most recent updates for the Green Mark Assessment 
Criteria are in 2016 for residential buildings (BCA, 2016), and an ongoing pilot for non-
residential buildings (BCA, 2017).
Since a 2012 survey by the Development Authority of Singapore revealed that the 10 
largest data centre operators in Singapore consumed as much energy as 130,000 
households, data centres became a key sector for policymakers. Data centres have been 
included in the BCA Green Mark Scheme since 2012. A similar technology roadmap has 
been prepared for data centres, which highlights strong growth prospects for improving 
energy efficiency in the sector. This was in line with estimates from the 2012 survey which 
posited that there is an energy efficiency potential of 20%. The Development Authority 
of Singapore also launched a new Green Data Centre Innovation Programme aimed at 
promoting innovative technological approaches to improving energy efficiency in data 
centres. 


287
Since 2006, the Public Sector Taking the Lead in Environmental Sustainability (PSTLES) 
initiative has placed the public sector at the front of building energy efficiency. Under 
the PSTLES, all existing public sector buildings must meet a minimum Gold Mark 
rating, as determined by the type of building. Moreover, the Guaranteed Energy Savings 
Performance (GESP) contracts initiative was introduced to ensure reaping the expected 
energy savings. Under the GESP contract structure, the public sector agency is expected 
to engage an accredited energy services company to carry out an energy audit, implement 
the relevant energy efficiency measures, and guarantee annual energy savings over a 3- 
to 5-year contract period (E2 Singapore, n.d.). The efficacy of this initiative could be 
proved with the average electricity savings of 15% across 14 projects by March 2015 (E2 
Singapore, 2015a), contributing to annual monetary savings of S$6 million. 
Industry
The industry-focused Energy Efficiency National Partnership is a voluntary programme 
which started in 2010 that helps companies put in place energy management systems 
and implement projects to improve energy efficiency. Mandatory energy management 
requirements for energy-intensive companies in the industry sector were later introduced 
in April 2013 under the Energy Conservation Act . Energy-intensive companies consuming 
more than 15 GWh (electricity) or 54 terajoules (fuel or steam) each year are required to 
appoint an energy manager, monitor and report energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, 
and submit energy efficiency improvement plans (National Environment Agency, 2014). 
Beside legislation enforcing mandatory energy management practices, policies were also 
introduced to incentivise energy efficiency investments. The ESCO (energy services 
company) Accreditation Scheme supports the Energy Conservation Act by ensuring 
professionalism in energy-related services. As of mid-2018, 29 qualified energy services 
specialists are from 19 accredited ESCOs.
Incentives and grants, such as the Design for Efficiency Scheme, Energy Efficiency 
Improvement Assistance Scheme, and the Grant for Energy Efficiency Technologies, 
were also put in place as co-financing schemes to reduce initial costs of energy efficiency 
upgrades. The One-Year Accelerated Depreciation Allowance for Energy Efficient 
Equipment and Technology is another example of a tax incentive to encourage energy 
efficiency upgrades in industries (E2 Singapore, 2015b). Knowledge-sharing is also 
promoted through industry-focused seminars and provision of energy management 
training and resources. 
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3.   Modelling Assumptions
3.1.  Power Generation Sector
For the BAU scenario, the generation efficiency of combined-cycle gas turbine plants is 
assumed to improve from 50.5% in 2015 to 52% in 2040, registering an increase of 2.9% 
due to progression towards a competitive electricity market. Single-cycle thermal plants 
are expected to improve marginally as well from 34.7% to 42% in 2040. The use of solar 
generation capacity is assumed to grow from 3% in 2015 to around 9% of aggregate demand 
for electricity in 2040, as part of public efforts towards promoting renewable energies. 
With respect to Alternative Policy Scenario (APS2), which considers greater potential for 
efficiency in the power generation sector, combined-cycle gas turbine plants will reach 
60% efficiency by 2040, whilst single-cycle thermal plants could reach 45%. APS3 allows 
for the share of solar to reach 30% of Singapore total electricity needs in 2040.
3.2.  Transport Sector
The demand for gasoline, natural gas, and diesel for Singapore’s road vehicles is assumed 
to be dependent primarily on vehicle growth. Consistent with vehicle quota targets set by 
the Land Transport Authority, vehicle growth would remain at 0.25% from 2015 to 2017, 
before going down to 0% from 2018 thereafter for the BAU scenario. Electricity demand 
for the mass rapid transit system is mainly driven by the expected expansion of railway 
length, which will increase from around 200 km in 2015 to 344 km by 2040, an annual 
average growth rate (AAGR) of 2.2% per year. APS1 is like the BAU scenario here, as no 
further vehicle growth reductions or railway efficiency improvements have been assumed.
3.3.  Residential Sector
In the BAU scenario, electricity demand growth is assumed to follow an AAGR of 6.9% 
from 2015 to 2040. Electricity demand growth can be further reduced to an AAGR of 
6.7% in APS1. Demand for natural gas and oil products remains like the BAU scenario. 


289
3.4.  Commercial Sector
In the BAU scenario, electricity demand is assumed to slow down at an AAGR of 0.8% from 
2015 to 2040, which will eventually end up below the baseline econometric forecasts in 
2040. APS1 will lead to a further reduction in AAGR for electricity demand to -0.9%. No 
reduction is expected from natural gas and oil consumption.
3.5.  Industry/Petrochemicals Sector
For industry, the BAU scenario assumes that natural gas, electricity, diesel, kerosene, 
residual fuel oil, as well as refinery gas demand will grow at an AAGR of 1.2% in 2015–2040. 
The demand growth will slow further to 1% in APS1, which is also 10% below econometric 
estimates in 2040. the BAU scenario and APS1 remain similar for the other fuels in the 
industry sector.
The production of ethylene is supposedly tied to policy targets to grow linearly to reach 
6 million tons per year by 2020, which translates to 22.2 Mtoe of naphtha produced 
(EDB, 2012) in the BAU scenario. Naphtha is used as an intermediary fuel to produce 
petrochemicals mainly stockpiled for exports from Singapore to other countries. Here, 
we assume that naphtha demand remains constant at 6,099.53 Mtoe on the observation 
that production figures remain like 2008, having just recovered from a large decline after 
the financial recession.
4. 
  Outlook Results
4.1.   Business-As-Usual Scenario
4.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Singapore’s total final energy consumption (TFEC) grew at an annual rate of 5%, from 
5.01 Mtoe in 1990 to 17.07 Mtoe in 2015. During the same period, oil was the dominant 
energy source, with 3.8 Mtoe and 11.59 Mtoe consumed in 1990 and 2015, respectively. 
About 38.8% of the country’s final energy is consumed for non-energy uses in 2015, 
particularly as feedstock for petrochemical production. In 1990, 27.1% of the TFEC was 
used in the transport sector although its share declined by almost 50%, reaching around 
13.8% only in 2015.
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Under the BAU scenario, the TFEC is projected to grow by 0.9% a year between 2015 and 
2040. The petrochemical sector is expected to remain stagnant in terms of growth (Figure 
15.1). The industry sector’s consumption will increase on average by 1.2% per year. The 
transport sector is projected to grow by 0.3% per year while the ‘others’ (residential and 
commercial) sector is projected to grow by 2.7% per year.
Under the BAU scenario, industry and non-energy consumption will be dominant in the 
TFEC. By the end of 2040, non-energy share in the TFEC will decline to 30.9% while the 
industry sector’s share will increase from 32.7% in 2015 to around 34.7% in 2040.
The transport sector’s share in the TFEC in 2015–2040 is expected to decrease to 11.7% 
from its 27.1% share in 1990. This decrease stems from the country’s national policies 
advocating for more efficient automobile technology and the promotion of public 
transport as the main means of transportation. In addition, the Certificate of Entitlement 
quotas are also expected to remain effective in curbing vehicle growth.
By fuel type, natural gas experienced the fastest growth in 1990–2015 at an average 
rate of 12.7% per year. The growth of natural gas was due to the increasing demand in 
its use mainly in the rapidly expanding industry sector. Also, in 1990–2015, electricity 
consumption grew at an average annual rate of 5.1%.
Figure 15.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Mtoe
-
5.00
1990
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Industry
Others
Transportation
Non-energy


291
Under the BAU scenario, the demand for natural gas is expected to continue expanding 
but at a slower average growth of 2% per year until 2040. Meanwhile, electricity demand 
will be growing at an average rate of 2.5% per year.
Oil is still expected to play a major role in the country’s TFEC. For the past 2 decades, that 
is, from 1990 to 2015, the share of oil fell from 76.1% to around 67.9%. Under the BAU 
scenario, oil’s share to the TFEC will fall to 64.1% in 2020 before falling further to 54.3% in 
2040. This decline is mainly due to the high growth in natural gas use, which will increase 
from its share of 7.3% in 2015 to 9.5% in 2040. Meanwhile, the share of electricity in the 
TFEC will increase to around 27.7% starting 2020 before rising further to 35.5% until 
2040. Figure 15.2 shows the final energy consumption by fuel.
4.1.2. 
 Primary energy supply
Total primary energy supply (TPES) grew by 4.4% per year, from 11.53 Mtoe in 1990 to 
33.63 Mtoe in 2015. Singapore’s dominant source of energy in 1990 was oil, and its supply 
increased by 2.9% yearly from 11.44 Mtoe in 1990 to 23.15 Mtoe in 2015. Following the 
construction of pipelines for gas-fired power plants – the first of which sourced gas from 
Malaysia in 1991 – and two more recent pipelines from Indonesia, the share of natural 
gas consequently increased. Natural gas consumption increased rapidly from 0.4 Mtoe in 
1992 to 9.39 Mtoe in 2015. 
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Figure 15.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Mtoe
-
5.00
1990
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
2000
2015
2020
2030
2030
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Electricity
Heat
Others
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Figure 15.3: Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Mtoe
-
5.00
1990
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Others
Geothermal
Primary energy supply in the BAU scenario is projected to grow by 1.1% per year during 
2015–2040 (Figure 15.3). Amongst the energy sources, solar energy is expected to grow 
the fastest at 3.9% a year, followed by biomass (2.5% per year) and natural gas (2.2% per 
year). Natural gas demand is expected to grow in line with the expansion of gas-fired 
power plants. 
Singapore’s net generation capacity has already increased by more than 2,000 megawatts 
(MW) or about 20% of current installed capacity with more efficient combined-cycle gas 
turbines (Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2013). Nevertheless, oil is expected to remain 
the primary energy source, accounting for 58.2% of primary energy supply in 2040, 
followed by natural gas at 36.4%. 
4.1.3. 
 Power generation
Electricity generation grew by 4.8% per year from 15.7 terawatt-hours (TWh) to 50.41 
TWh in 1990–2015. The electricity generation mix has changed significantly over the 
past decade. Natural gas, which accounted for 28% of electricity generation in Singapore 
in 2001, grew rapidly to supply 95% of Singapore’s electricity in 2015. Thermal power 
generation from fuel oil was around 0.35 TWh in 2015. In the same period, biomass and 
solar took up a small proportion of the mix, totalling around 3.1%. 
In the BAU scenario, power generation is projected to increase at 2.5% per year as well, 
reaching 94.54 TWh in 2040. By type of fuel, generation from others, which comprise 
biomass and solar power, will have the fastest growth at an average rate of almost 6.6% 


293
per year. Power generation of others is expected to increase its share from a minimal share 
of 3.1% in 2015 to 8.1% in 2040. Coal started to be utilised in 2013 as a substitute for 
hydrogen and carbon monoxide as feedstock for the energy and petrochemical sectors. It 
is projected to grow only marginally at 2.5% per year.
After 2015, at least 90% of the country’s power generation mix will come from natural gas 
under the BAU scenario. Its share of the generation mix will gradually decline over time – 
from 95.0% in 2015 to 90.5% in 2040 – as more solar power is utilised. On the other hand, 
the share of oil will decline to 0.2% over the same period.
The average thermal efficiency of Singapore’s fossil-fuelled power plants was around 
30.3% in 1990 and improved to 49.5% in 2015 as more natural gas–fired power plants 
operated. In the BAU scenario, the thermal efficiency of fossil plants is expected to 
improve further to around 50.9% in 2040. That of natural gas plants will be 52% in 2040, 
and that of oil, 42%.
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Others
Geothermal
Figure 15.4: Electricity Generation, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation.
TWh
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
4.1.4. 
 Energy indicators
Primary energy intensity, which is computed as the ratio of primary energy supply over 
GDP, is expected to decrease. Similarly, final energy intensity of Singapore (ratio of 
final energy consumption over GDP) will also be declining in 2015–2040. This decrease 
in energy intensity indicates that Singapore is moving towards a highly economically 
productive country; that is, less energy will be used to produce each unit of output. Energy 
and CO2 per capita increases as population growth is expected to remain lower than fossil 
fuel demand growth (Figure 15.5). 
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Figure 15.5: Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, CO2 = carbon dioxide.
Source: Author’s calculation.
1990=100
-
5.0
1990
Energy Intensity
10.0
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
15.0
20.0
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita
4.2.  Energy Saving and CO2 Reduction Potential
4.2.1. 
 Final energy consumption
The TFEC under APS1 is projected to increase by 0.8% from 2015 to 2040. Like the 
BAU scenario, the non-energy sector grows at 0% per year. The ‘others’ (residential and 
commercial) sector grows at 2.5%; this is followed by the industry sector at 1.0% and the 
transport sector at 0.3%. APS2 and APS3 do not include energy conservation policies for 
end-demand and, hence, are like the BAU scenario. APS5, a combination of all APS, will 
have the same final energy consumption as that of APS1 (Figure 15.6).
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Figure 15.6: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APSs
Mtoe
1990
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Industry
Others
Transport
Non-energy


295
4.2.2. Primary energy supply
Results from APS2 show that the primary energy supply for 2015–2040 will increase at an 
average annual rate of 0.9%, a 1.89 Mtoe decrease from the BAU scenario (Figure 15.7) 
in 2040. This translates to a reduction of 4.2% from the BAU scenario in 2040. APS1 and 
APS3 will help lower primary energy supply by 1.01 Mtoe and 1.5 Mtoe, respectively, in 
2040. This illustrates that policies targeting end-user energy efficiency and renewables 
still play only a secondary role to power generation efficiency policies in reducing primary 
energy supply.
Most of the reduction in primary energy supply will come from natural gas at 1.89 Mtoe, 
which is a drop of 11.7% from the BAU scenario (Figure 15.8). Oil falls only by 0.14% as it 
is limited by the already-declining the BAU scenario consumption for power generation, 
as well as the large consumption in petrochemical non-energy use. Biomass consumption 
will remain relatively constant, whereas solar power progresses significantly but is still 
small in magnitude. Hence, this leads to increased consumption of others by 84.6%.
Figure 15.7: Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APSs 
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Mtoe
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Others
Geothermal
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 15.8: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS5 (2015 and 2040) 
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Source: Author’s calculation.
Mtoe
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
84.6%
–3.5%
–0.2%
–32.1%
4.2.3. 
 Power generation
Results from APS1 and APS5 show decreased electricity generation, registering a drop of 
4.4 TWh or 4.7% from the BAU scenario. APS2 and APS3 assume the same generation as 
the BAU scenario since these do not have energy-saving measures (Figure 15.9).
Figure 15.9: Electricity Generation, BAU and APSs
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour. 
Source: Author’s calculation.
TWh
0.0
BAU
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Others
Geothermal


297
4.2.4. 
 CO2 reduction potential
Under the BAU scenario, CO2 emissions from energy demand are projected to increase 
at an average annual rate of 1.3%, from 12.4 Mt-C in 2015 to around 17.2 Mt-C in 2040 
(Figure 15.10). 
CO2 emissions reduction potential comes mainly from improvements in thermal 
efficiency for power generation (APS2), with savings of 1.21 Mt-C in 2040, equivalent 
to a 7.1% decrease from the BAU scenario. Educational policies and incentives that target 
behavioural changes in end-consumers of energy are also very beneficial, with APS1 
registering emissions reduction of 0.59 Mt-C in the same period (a 3.4% reduction from 
the BAU scenario). Increased use of solar power offers large emissions reduction of 2 
Mt-C (a 11.7% reduction from BAU). Overall, APS5 will contribute to emissions reduction 
of 3.38 Mt-C, which is a 19.7% reduction from the BAU scenario. Under this scenario, 
carbon emissions will increase at an AAGR of 0.4% from 2015 to 2040, compared with 
1.3% under the BAU scenario. 
Figure 15.10: CO2 Emissions from Energy Supply, BAU and APS5 (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Million Tons of Carbon
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
BAU
2015
2040
APS
3.38 Mtoe,-19.7%
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5.   Implications and Policy Recommendations
The Singapore government has been progressively implementing new strategies to help 
incentivise and advocate the adoption of clean energy technologies and conservation 
behaviour amongst industries and households. These programmes include several funding 
schemes, including the Clean Development Mechanism, Documentation Grant that help 
provide companies with financial assistance to engage carbon consultancy services, and 
Grant for Energy Efficient Technologies to help encourage industry investments in energy-
efficient equipment or technologies (Energy Efficiency Programme Office, 2013b). 
Zero-Capex (Capital Expenditure) or similar commercial contracts can also be actively 
promoted to increase the involvement of energy service companies to help conserve 
energy. 
Solar adoption, an electric vehicle car-sharing programme, as well as smart technologies 
pave the way to further reduce carbon in industries and households in the future. 
There is also an initiative to improve the petrochemical industry’s energy efficiency and 
competitiveness by way of a ‘heat-integration’ plan (Lim, 2013). 
Singapore has also taken measures to ensure that its energy needs are diversified across 
more countries for energy imports rather than depending on gas pipeline flows from 
Malaysia and Indonesia as Singapore transits towards using more natural gas to power 
its electricity needs. Currently, Singapore plans to increase LNG import storage facilities, 
and is appointing one or two companies to import LNG for Singapore in the short-term 
future. Coal use for co-generation, as well as the greater adoption of solar energy, shows 
efforts made towards fuel mix diversification.
As shown in the forecast results for the BAU scenario with 2015 as the base year, 
Singapore is already on track to meet its projected 2020 targets of hitting 77.2 million 
tons of MT-CO2, (NCCS, 2016c) where estimations show the potential to go as low as 
13.42 Mt-C or approximately 50 million tons of MT-CO2 if much greater efforts are taken 
to reduce emissions.
Despite the limitations posed by its small size and the paucity of renewable energy 
sources, Singapore’s long-term commitment to building a sustainable city will ensure 
that the efforts of using energy efficiently and in an environmentally viable manner will 
continue to receive broad support.


299
Notes
APS 1 to APS5 are results from an academic exercise and should not be taken to reflect 
Singapore’s national position for climate policies.
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THAILAND COUNTRY REPORT
1.   Background
Thailand is in the middle of Southeast Asia, with the Pacific Ocean on the southeast coast 
and the Indian Ocean on the southwest coast. Its land area is approximately 513,115 
square kilometres, with great plains in the centre, mountainous areas in the north, and 
highlands in the northeast. Its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 was about US393.7billion(inconstant2010US terms). In 2015, its population was 65.7 million and income 
per capita was around US$5,989.
Thailand is an energy importer, especially of crude oil, because of very limited domestic 
resources. Its indigenous energy resources include natural gas, coal (only lignite), and 
biomass. In 2015, proven reserves were 0.2 billion barrels (26.1 million cubic metres) of 
oil, and 7.3 trillion cubic feet (0.21 trillion cubic metres) of natural gas. Proven reserves of 
lignite amounted to 1,181 million tons but this number was published in 2013. 
Thailand’s total primary energy supply (TPES) reached 135 million tons of oil equivalent 
(Mtoe) in 2015. Oil accounted for the largest share at around 38.7%, followed by natural 
gas (28.1%) and coal (12.5%). ‘Others’ accounted for the remaining 20.7%. In 2015, net 
imports of energy accounted for 46.5% of the TPES. Due to very limited indigenous oil 
resources, Thailand imported around 83.6% of its oil and most of its bituminous coal. 
Although the country produces large quantities of natural gas, about 29.9% of its use was 
imported from Myanmar and other countries. 
In Thailand, natural gas is used as a major energy source for power generation. In 2015, 
primary natural gas supply registered at 37.9 Mtoe; around 75.3% of this level was sourced 
from domestic supply and the rest was imported from neighbouring countries. Liquefied 
natural gas was also sourced from other countries. Coal was mainly consumed in power 
generation and industry. It was also heavily used in cement and paper production.
CHAPTER 16
Supit Padrem, Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy, 
Thailand


305
Thailand generated about 165.7 terawatt-hours (TWh) of power in 2015. The majority 
of the country’s power generation used thermal sources (coal, natural gas, and oil), 
accounting for 91.5% of generation. It is followed by hydro at 3.5% while geothermal, solar, 
small hydro, and biomass made up the remainder.
2.   Modelling Assumptions
GDP growth in 1990–2015 was a moderate 4.2% per year. Thailand’s GDP is assumed to 
grow at an average rate of 3.8% per year in 2015–2040. Population growth is also projected 
to be reasonably slow at around 0.03% per year in 2015–2040, compared with average 
growth of about 0.6% per year in 1990–2015.
Natural gas and coal are projected to be the largest energy sources for power generation. 
Conversely, the shares of fuel oil and diesel power plants are projected to remain constant. 
Nuclear power and renewable energy are projected to increase their shares in the power 
generation mix in the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS). 
Thailand expects its energy-saving goals to be achieved through the implementation 
of energy efficiency programmes in all sectors. In the industry sector, improvements 
in technology development in manufacturing processes should help improve energy 
efficiency. In the residential and commercial (‘others’) sectors, large energy savings are 
projected, driven by programmes to promote public awareness of energy efficiency and 
energy efficiency labelling. In the transport sector, further developments in the Bangkok 
metro area railway network will contribute to energy savings. Significant improvements in 
energy efficiency in passenger vehicles are also expected to be achieved in line with new 
developments in car technologies and the introduction of the next phase of the eco-car 
programme phase 2. 
Government policies will continue to encourage the increased use of alternative fuels, 
especially biofuels. Growth of CO2 emissions is also expected to be reduced through 
the increased adoption of more energy-efficient and lower-emissions technologies. In 
particular, in the APS, nuclear power and renewable energy sources are expected to help 
reduce CO2 emissions from electricity generation. Gasohol and biodiesel as oil alternatives 
are also expected to help curb CO2 emissions from transportation.
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3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario
In 1990–2015, Thailand’s final energy consumption grew at a high rate of 5% per year, 
from 28.9 Mtoe in 1990 to 98.0 Mtoe in 2015. Given moderate economic growth and 
low population growth rate, final energy consumption is projected to grow moderately at 
around 2.9% per year between 2015 and 2040. 
Oil was the dominant energy source in final energy consumption, accounting for 49.3 
Mtoe, or a 50.2% share, in 2015. Electricity was the second-largest energy source, 
accounting for 15 Mtoe, or a 15.3% share, in 2015. 
Oil is expected to remain the largest final energy source throughout the projection period. 
Its share is projected to increase from 2015 level to 52% in 2040. In 2040, the shares of 
electricity will remain the same at the current level, 15.3%, but natural gas and coal in final 
energy consumption are projected to slightly increase to 10.7% and 8.5%, respectively 
(Figure 16.1).
Figure 16.1: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
50
100
150
200
250
Mtoe
-
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Electricity
Heat
Others


307
Thailand Country Report
The industry sector has the smallest share, 8.7 Mtoe, in the total final energy in 1990. 
While consumption in the sector highly increased at an average rate of 5.2% a year in 1990–
2015, the share of industry increased from 30.0% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2015, making it the 
largest consuming sector. The industry sector is projected to remain the largest consumer, 
accounting for 34.1% in the final energy consumption in 2040. In addition, non-energy 
use, which consists mainly of naphtha, will also increase its consumption like the industry 
sector. As a result, the ‘others’ (residential and commercial) sector, will account for the 
smallest proportion of final energy consumption at 17.2% in 2040, showing the declining 
trend of its share as has been observed since 1990. 
Primary energy supply grew at an average annual rate of 4.7%, from 42.6 Mtoe in 1990 
to 135.0 Mtoe in 2015, driven largely by fast economic development between 1990 and 
1996 and moderate economic growth after 1997. This growth in primary energy supply 
was achieved despite the severe economic crisis in 1997–1998 and the world economic 
crisis in 2008. In 2015, the major sources of primary energy were oil, natural gas, and 
coal with shares of 38.7% (52.3 Mtoe), 28.1% (37.9 Mtoe), and 12.5% (16.8 Mtoe), 
respectively. Although oil remained the largest source in 1990–2015, its share in primary 
energy demand declined a little from 42.1% in 1990 to 38.7% in 2015. Natural gas, which is 
mainly consumed in the power generation sector, became an important source of energy 
with its share in primary energy demand increasing significantly from 11.7% in 1990 to 
28.1% in 2015. Contrastingly, the share of hydropower declined from 1.0% in 1990 to only 
0.4% in 2015 (Figure 16.2).
Figure 16.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
50
100
-
150
200
250
Mtoe
Industry
Others
Transport
Non-energy


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In the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, primary energy demand is projected to grow 
at about 2.5% per year from 2015 to 2040, reaching 250.8 Mtoe in 2040. The highest 
average annual growth rate is expected in oil (3%), with consumption expected to reach 
109.1 Mtoe in 2040, followed by coal and natural gas. The growth rate of coal is expected 
to be around 2.8% in 2015–2040. Natural gas growth is expected to be slower than that 
of primary energy demand. Its average growth rate is about 1.4% per year between 2015 
and 2040.
In 1990, total power generation registered at 44.2 TWh and reached 167.7 TWh in 2015 
with an average growth rate of 5.4% per year. Figure 16.4 shows that natural gas has been 
a major fuel for power generation since 1990. Natural gas power generation grew with a 
robust rate of 7.8% per year from 17.8 TWh (40.2% share) in 1990 to 117.0 TWh (70.6% 
share) in 2015. Coal has the second-largest share at 25.0% in 1990, but its share shrank 
to 19.9% in 2015. Power generation by oil was the smallest, with only 1.7 TWh in 2015.
Figure 16.3: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
50
100
-
150
200
250
Mtoe
300
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


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Figure 16.4: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hours.
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
50
100
150
TWh
-
200
250
300
350
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
In the BAU scenario, power generation is expected to grow at around 2.3% per year in 
2015–2040 and will reach 294.6 TWh in 2040. In 2040, natural gas will remain to be a 
dominant fuel in power generation, with the highest share of 54.6% or 161.0 TWh. Coal 
will still be the second-largest source of power with 24.4% share, or 71.8 TWh during the 
period. Power generation from hydro will increase slightly by 3.8% per year, from 5.8 TWh 
in 2015 to 14.6 TWh in 2040 (Figure 16.4). 
Thermal efficiency of natural gas improved the highest improvement as combined cycle 
gas turbines technology was applied. The 40.0% efficiency of natural gas in 1990 jumped 
to 47.9% in 2015 and is expected to remain unchanged until 2040. Coal thermal efficiency 
declined almost 4.0% from 1990 to 2015, but the efficiency is also assumed to improve 
from 33.9% in 2015 to 37.3% in 2040 (Figure 16.5). 
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Energy intensity reached 343 toe/million at 2010 US$ in 2015. In the BAU scenario, 
energy intensity is projected to decline by 1.2% per year to reach 251 toe/million 2010 
US$ in 2040. Energy per capita will move upward from 2.1 toe per person in 2015 to 3.8 
toe per person in 2040 (Figure 16.6).
Figure 16.5: Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
2040
Natural Gas
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
0
10
20
%
30
40
50
60
Oil
Coal
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.
Figure 16.6: Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
0
100
200
1990=100
300
CO2 per Capita
400
500
600
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Energy
Energy per Capita
Energy Intensity
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.


311
Energy elasticity in 1990–2015 was 1.2, indicating that energy demand rose faster than 
economic growth. In the BAU scenario, energy elasticity is projected at 0.8 between 2015 
and 2040. It means that energy demand will grow at a slower rate than economic output. 
3.2  Energy Saving and CO2 Reduction Potential
 
3.2.1   Final Demand
In the APS (APS5), final energy consumption is projected to grow at 1.6% per year, from 
98.0 Mtoe in 2015 to 147.2 Mtoe in 2040. This is lower by 25.8% than the BAU scenario, 
which will grow at an average annual rate of 2.9% in 2040. The majority of energy savings 
will be achieved through energy efficiency improvement programmes implemented in the 
industry (20.8%) and the transport (69.7%) sectors. Improvements will also be achieved 
in the ‘others’ sector (17%) (Figure 16.7).
Figure 16.7: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Sources:  2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2040 compiled by author.
Mtoe
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
–69.7%
–17.0%
0.0%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–20.8%
3.2.2  Primary Energy Supply
In the APS, growth in primary energy supply is projected to be much slower than in BAU, 
increasing at 1.2% per year (compared with 2.5% in the BAU scenario) to reach 184 Mtoe 
in 2040. Primary energy supply is expected to be about 26.6% lower than in the BAU 
scenario in 2040, an energy saving of about 66.8 Mtoe. 
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Oil and coal are projected to increase at slower average annual rates of 1.7% and 1.3%, 
respectively (3.0% and 2.8% in the BAU scenario). Natural gas is projected to decrease 
at an average annual rate of -0.4% (1.4% in the BAU scenario) from 53.4 Mtoe in 2015 
to 34.2 Mtoe in 2040. The lower growth rates compared to the BAU scenario are mainly 
achieved through energy efficiency and conservation measures on the demand side. The 
differences in the projections between the two scenarios are shown in Figure 16.8.
3.3  Projected Energy Savings
The difference between primary energy supply in BAU and the APS in 2040 is 66.8 
Mtoe (Figure 16.9 ). This represents the potential energy savings that could be achieved 
if energy efficiency and conservation goals and action plans were implemented. Oil will 
contribute the largest energy savings at 29.4 Mtoe. Meanwhile, energy savings from 
natural gas and coal will reach 19.2 Mtoe and 10.1 Mtoe, respectively, in 2040. However, 
the contribution of non-fossil energy sources will also be 10.6 Mtoe lower than in the BAU 
scenario. 
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Sources:  2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2040 compiled by author.
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–30.4%
–27.0%
–36.0%
–14.5%
Figure 16.8: Primary Energy Demand by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Mtoe
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0


313
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Sources: 1990 and 2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2040 compiled by author.
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
–66.8 Mtoe, –26.6%
Figure 16.9: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 2040)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Mtoe
In final energy consumption, the savings in the APS in 2040 will reach 51.1 Mtoe. The 
largest savings are expected to be achieved in the transport sector at 31.3 Mtoe. On the 
other hand, the industry and the ‘others’ sectors are expected to save 14.1 Mtoe and 5.8 
Mtoe of energy, respectively. 
3.4  CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption
CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to increase by 2.5% per year on 
average, from 220.6 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 410.1 Mt-C in 2040 under 
the BAU scenario. 
Under the APS, the average annual growth in CO2 emissions in 2013–2040 is projected to 
be 0.5%, with emissions level of 252 Mt-C in 2040. The difference in the CO2 emissions 
between the BAU scenario and the APS is 158.2 Mt-C or 38.6%. This reduction in CO2 
emissions highlights the range of benefits that can be achieved through energy efficiency 
improvements and savings via action plans as well as shifting to lower carbon energy 
(Figure 16.10).
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.5  Thailand’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions 
 
 
 (INDC)
3.5.1  Thailand’s INDC in Greenhouse Gases 
Thailand submitted its INDC in greenhouse gas to the United Nations Framework 
Convention on Climate Change on 1 October 2015. The target of greenhouse gas 
reduction, according to its INDC, would be 20% off from BAU by 2030; this was forecast 
nationally in 2005. CO2 emissions in the BAU scenario were estimated at 555 Mt-C in 
2030. Consequently, the INDC also targets reduced CO2 of 113 Mt-C in the energy 
sector. 
3.5.2  INDC Achievement and the APS
Under the APS, carbon emission reduction in 2030 was estimated at 80 Mt-C, about 
227 Mt-C lower than 307 Mt-C of the BAU scenario (East Asia Summit outlook). This 
reduction amount of 80 Mt-C is equal to 288 Mt-C. In this regard, the APS’s CO2 reduction 
targets can be achieved through the INDC targets (reduction of 113 Mt-C) in the energy 
sector. Thailand’s policy on energy savings should be satisfied adequately based on the 
target of CO2 reduction commitment described in its INDC. 
Figure 16.10: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, 
BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Million Tons of Carbon
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Sources: 1990 and 2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2040 compiled by author.
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
–158.2 Mt-C, –38.6%


315
4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
Strong economic growth before the 1997 Asian financial crisis contributed to relatively 
high energy intensity in Thailand in 1990–2011. However, energy intensity has declined 
since the economy recovered from the 1997 crisis. Furthermore, Thailand’s energy 
efficiency programmes in a wide range of areas (including the industry, transport, and 
building sectors) and higher oil prices in the world market will contribute to a continued 
decline in energy intensity.
Improving energy efficiency will also help Thailand (which is an oil importer) address the 
challenges posed by high world oil prices. Thailand is committed to reduce the intensity 
of energy consumption, particularly oil consumption, and is looking for more sustainable 
energy sources and environment-friendly fuels. The more Thailand saves energy, the 
less sensitive it will be to fluctuations in world energy prices and supply. Furthermore, 
Thailand has realised that energy savings is important; thus, the country should put more 
effort into it. 
Although the country has an alternative policy for the next 23 years, oil will remain a major 
energy source. Oil is one of the most sensitive energy sources in terms of price and security. 
Thailand should focus more on saving oil to be less dependent on this fuel. Furthermore, 
energy use in the transport sector will become the smallest in the future compared to 
other sectors. Nonetheless, this sector is also less productive than the others. It means 
that it consumes more energy, but adds less value. The more energy saving effort in the 
transport sector, the more benefit it will be for the economy as a whole.
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VIET NAM COUNTRY REPORT
1.   Background
Viet Nam has a total land area of about 331,111 square kilometres and lies in Southeast 
Asia. In 2015, its population was 91.7 million and its gross domestic product (GDP) was 
$154.5 billion in 2010 US$ terms. The commercial sector contributes the most to Viet 
Nam’s GDP (38.3%), followed by the industry sector (34.2%), agriculture (16.1%), and 
‘others’ (11.4%). GDP per capita was US$1,685 in 2015.
Viet Nam possesses considerable indigenous energy resources. It has 3,390 million tons 
of proven recoverable reserves of coal, 460 million cubic metres of crude oil reserves, and 
610 billion cubic metres of gas reserves. 
Viet Nam’s total primary energy supply (TPES) was 70.1 million tons of oil equivalent 
(Mtoe) in 2015. Coal represented the largest share of the country’s TPES at 35.9%; oil 
was second at 22.2%, followed by natural gas (13.7%), hydro (7.8%), and others (20.3%). 
Viet Nam is a net exporter of crude oil and coal but is an importer of petroleum products 
because of limited capacity at the Dung Quat oil refinery (6.5 million tons a year) that 
could meet around 45% of domestic demand. 
Coal is mainly used in the industry sector with consumption of 25.2 Mtoe in 2015, while 
natural gas is largely used to generate electricity. 
Viet Nam had around 38.5 gigawatts (GW) of installed generating capacity and produced 
159.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2015. Most of its electricity generation 
comes from thermal sources (coal, natural gas, and oil), accounting for 60.2% of total 
generation; the remaining is hydro (39.5%) and others (around 0.3%). 
CHAPTER 17
Nguyen Minh Bao, Institute of Energy, Viet Nam


317
2.   Modelling Assumptions
In this outlook, Viet Nam’s GDP is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 6.0% from 
2015 to 2040. Growth is projected to be faster in the first outlook period, increasing at 7% 
per year between 2015 and 2020. For the remaining periods of 2020–2030 and 2030–
2040, the country’s economic growth will moderate to an annual rate of 6.2% and 5.2%, 
respectively. Population growth is projected to increase at a much slower rate, increasing 
by 0.6% per year between 2015 and 2040. 
The share of electricity generated from coal-fired power plants is projected to increase 
considerably because of the expense of other energy types (natural gas and hydro). Viet 
Nam is expected to increase its imports of electricity, particularly from the Lao People’s 
Democratic Republic and China. 
Viet Nam’s energy-saving goals are assumed to be 3%–5% of total energy consumption, 
equivalent to 5 Mtoe, between 2006 and 2010, and 5%–8% of total energy consumption, 
equivalent to 13.1 Mtoe between 2010 and 2015, in line with the national target on 
energy efficiency and conservation (EEC).
In 2010, the Law on Energy Efficiency and Conservation, approved by the National 
Assembly, focused on priority policies, such as (i) increasing the use of renewable energy 
in line with Viet Nam’s potential and conditions, (ii) contributing to energy security 
and environmental protection, and (iii) promoting energy efficiency in production and 
residential areas through regulations and technological measures on energy efficiency and 
renewable energy.
In November 2015, the Renewable Energy Development Strategy of Viet Nam was 
approved by the Prime Minister’s Decision1 to accelerate the expansion and use of 
renewable energy sources; gradually increase renewable energy share in national 
energy production and consumption and ensure less dependence on fossil sources; and 
contribute to better energy security, mitigating climate change, environmental protection, 
and sustainable socio-economic development. 
1 
Decision No. 2068/QD-TTg issued on 25 November 2015 to approve the Vietnam Renewable Energy Development 
Strategy to 2030 outlook up to 2050 (in Vietnamese).
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The strategic targets are: 
• 
Increase the share of renewable energy-based electricity to 4.5% in 2020, 15% in 
2030, and 33.1% in 2050.
• 
Increase the proportion of households using solar water-heating devices to 12% in 
2020, 26% in 2030, and 50% in 2050.
• 
Scale up the application of biogas technologies with a construction volume of from 
about 4 million cubic metres (m3) in 2015 to 8 million m3 in 2020, to approximately 
60 million m3 in 2030, and 100 million m3 in 2050.
• 
Increase the production of biofuels to meet the transport sector’s fuel demand: 5% in 
2020, 13% in 2030, and 25% in 2050.
From the above analysis, in this study, Alternative Policy Scenarios (APSs) are proposed: 
EEC scenarios (APS1), improvement of energy efficiencies in power generation (APS2), 
and development of renewable energy (APS3).
• 
APS1: Develop EEC scenarios in potential sectors on the demand side, including:
o 
Industry: Improve technologies in making cement, bricks, non-baked bricks, 
iron, and steel. For the remaining other industries, EEC measures are assumed to 
be implemented to reduce energy consumption by around 15% by 2040.   
o 
Transport: Implement EEC measures such as passenger transport mode 
shift from private to public, freight transport switch from road, and increased 
penetration of electric vehicles. 
o 
Residential: Replace inefficient devices with efficient ones, such as high- 
efficient lamps in lighting, efficient refrigerators, and air conditioners in cooling 
homes.  
o 
Commercial: Use EEC measures in the commercial sector to reduce 12% of 
energy consumption by 2040.
• 
APS2: Improve energy efficiency in thermal power plants
 
The efficiency of coal-fired thermal power plants is assumed to increase to 40% by 
2040 compared with 38% in the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, while natural gas 
with combined cycle gas turbines technologies will increase to 60% by 2040 compared 
with 52% in the BAU scenario.


319
Viet Nam Country Report
• 
APS3: Develop renewable energy technologies
 
Installed electricity generating capacity from renewable energy is assumed to reach 
40,200 megawatts (MW) in 2040 with solar photovoltaic contributing 20,000 MW; 
wind,10,000 MW; small hydro, 5,000 MW; biomass,5,000 MW; and biogas, 200 MW.
 
Moreover, the Renewable Energy Development Strategy has set the targets for using 
biofuels in the transport sector, solar water heaters in the residential sector, and 
biogas cook stoves in rural areas to reduce dependency on oil and curb CO2 emissions. 
Therefore, it is assumed that by 2040, the share of households using solar water-
heating devices in urban and rural areas would reach 60% and 25%, respectively, 
biogas cook stoves in rural areas would reach 15%; and the substitution of ethanol for 
gasoline in the transport sector would reach around 20%. 
• 
APS5: Combining from APS1 to APS3. 
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual  Scenario
3.1.1. 
 Total final energy consumption
Viet Nam’s total final energy consumption (TFEC) in 2015 was 56.3 Mtoe, which has 
increased at 5.1% per year, 3.5 times more than its 1990 level of 16.1 Mtoe. On a per 
sector basis, the fastest growth occurred in the transport sector (8.4% per year), followed 
by the industry sector (6.8%), and the residential/commercial (‘others’) sector (3.0% per 
year). Non-energy use is expected to grow at 16.3% per year.
For 2015–2040, the TFEC is projected to increase at an average rate of 4% per year 
under the BAU scenario. Growth is driven by strong economic growth, which is assumed 
to be at an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, and the rising population at an average 
annual growth rate of 0.6%. On a per sector basis, the strongest growth in consumption 
is projected to occur in transport, increasing by 5.2% per year. This is followed by the 
industry sector (4.9% per year) and the residential/commercial (‘others’) sector (1.6% per 
year). Non-energy use is expected to grow at 5.1% per year. Figure 17.1 shows the final 
energy consumption by sector from 1990 to 2040.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 17.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
20.0
-
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Mtoe
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
The bulk of the country’s energy consumption (around 63% in 1990) comes from the 
residential/commercial (‘others’) sector, where biomass fuel used for residential cooking 
takes the dominant share. This share will decrease from 37.2% in 2015 to 20.7% by 2040 
due to the substitution of biomass fuels by commercial fuels with higher efficiency. The 
decreasing share of the sector is due to the growing economy. Economic growth will 
translate to improvements in the standard of living, thus, increasing the transition from 
biomass to modern fuels.
Starting from 2015 up to 2040, the industry sector will be the largest consuming sector 
in Viet Nam. The share of energy consumption in the industry sector will increase from 
42.0% in 2015 to 51.6% in 2040. The smaller consumer is the transport sector although 
its share will increase slowly from 18.6% in 2015 to 24.9% in 2040. 
Meanwhile, other fuels (mostly biomass) are the most-consumed product, accounting for 
73.9% of the TFEC in 1990; however, this declined to 28.1% in 2015. Oil was the second 
most-consumed product, accounting for 14.5% of the TFEC in 1990 and increasing to 
25.3% in 2015. The share of coal consumed from 1990 to 2015 increased from 8.3% to 
22.5%. Electricity had a small share of 3.3% in 1990 but increased significantly to 21.6% 
in 2015. 


321
On a per fuel basis under the BAU scenario, natural gas is projected to exhibit the fastest 
growth in final energy consumption, increasing at 6.1% per year between 2015 and 2040. 
Electricity and oil are projected to have the second-highest growth rate of 5.3% per year, 
followed by coal at 4.5%. Other fuels (mostly biomass) are projected to decrease at an 
annual rate of 1.8% due to the transition from biomass to modern fuels.
Other fuels (dominated by biomass) had the largest share at 28.1% in 2015 but this share 
will reduce significantly to 6.7% in 2040. Oil products had the second-largest share of 
25.3% in 2015; this share is projected to increase to 34.3% in 2040. The third-largest share 
of demand is coal, which is projected to increase from 22.5% in 2015 to 25.4% in 2040. 
On the other hand, electricity and natural gas were used primarily in the industry sector 
with shares of 21.6% and 2.6% in 2015, respectively. In 2040, the shares of electricity and 
natural gas will increase up to 29.2% and 4.3%, respectively (Figure 17.2).
Figure 17.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
20.0
-
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Mtoe
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
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Coal accounted for the largest share of 35.9% of the TPES in 2015 and will increase  to 
56.2% in 2040. The share of oil was 22.2% in 2015 and will increase to 26.3% in 2040. This 
growth is  due to the projected decline of natural gas (from 13.7% to 12.1%), hydro (from 
7.8% to 2.3%), and others (from 20.3% to 3.1%).
3.1.2. 
 Total primary energy supply
Viet Nam’s total primary energy supply (TPES) grew at a higher rate than final energy 
consumption; it increased at 5.6% per year or 3.9 times, from 17.9 Mtoe in 1990 to 70.1 
Mtoe in 2015. Amongst the major energy sources, the fastest-growing were natural gas, 
hydro, coal, and oil. Natural gas consumption grew at an average annual rate of 38.1% 
between 1990 and 2015 while hydro, coal, and oil grew at 10.4%, 10.2%, and 7.2% per 
year, respectively. 
In the BAU scenario, Viet Nam’s TPES is projected to increase at an annual rate of 4.7% or 
3.1 times, from 70.1 Mtoe in 2015 to 219.9 Mtoe in 2040. The fastest growth is expected 
in coal, increasing at an annual average rate of 6.6% between 2015 and 2040, followed 
by oil (5.4%) and natural gas (4.1%) while hydro and other fuels (mostly biomass) will 
decrease slightly and strongly at 0.2% and 2.9% per year, respectively.  Figure 17.3 shows 
the primary energy supply by source in 1990–2040.
50.0
-
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Figure 17.3: Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


323
3.1.3. 
 Power generation
Power generation output increased at 12.4% per year or 18.4 times, from 8.7 TWh in 
1990 to 159.8 TWh in 2015. The fastest growth occurred in natural gas power generation 
(42.9% per year), followed by coal (13.8%) and hydropower (10.4% per year). This fast 
growth is due to the 5.8% decrease of oil. 
Power generation is projected to increase at an average rate of 5% per year, or 3.4 times 
between 2015 and 2040, to meet electricity demand under the BAU scenario. The fastest 
growth will be in coal power generation (8.3% per year), followed by natural gas (3.6% 
per year). This fast growth is due to the decrease of hydro, oil, and other (mostly small 
hydropower). Figure 17.4 shows the power generation output by the type of fuel under 
the BAU scenario from 1990 to 2040. 
By the end of 2015, the majority of the country’s power came from hydropower, which 
comprised about 39.5% of the total power generation mix. The share of coal-fired power 
generation was around 31.9% while the rest were from natural gas (28.1%), oil (0.2%), and 
other power generation (around 0.3%).
In the BAU scenario, coal will be the major fuel used for power generationbetween 2020 
and 2040, with its share increasing from 64.0% in 2020 to 68.9% in 2040. On the other 
hand, the share of hydro in the total power generation will decline from 20.4% in 2020 to 
around 11.0% in 2040.
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Figure 17.4: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculations.
100.0
-
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
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3.1.4. 
 Energy indicators 
From 1990 to 2015, Viet Nam’s energy intensity showed a decreasing trend. Both primary 
and final energy intensities of the country decreased from 1,006 toe/million and 905 toe/
million 2010 USin1990to453toe/millionand364toe/million2010US in 2015. 
This was due to the high economic growth, which significantly reduced the use of biomass 
fuels in the residential sector, although the energy requirement in the industry and the 
transport sectors had been increasing in recent years. The final energy intensity under 
the BAU scenario is estimated to continue the decreasing trend from 364 toe/million to 
228toe/million 2010 US$ by 2040. This decreasing trend indicates that energy will be used 
efficiently for economic development.
Meanwhile, the primary energy per capita increased from 0.27 toe/person in 1990 to 0.76 
toe/person in 2015; it will continue to increase to 2.06 toe/person by 2040. This indicates 
that, in the future,  living standards and people’s incomes will increase, resulting in rising 
total primary energy consumption (TPEC) per capita.
Regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, CO2 intensity and CO2 per energy increased 
from 265 t-C/million 2010 US$ and 0.26 t-C/toe in 1990 to 317 t-C/million 2010 USand0.7t−C/toein2015,respectively.IntheBAUscenario,CO2intensityandCO2perenergywillalsoslightlyincreaseby2020at417t−C/million2010US and 0.84 t-C/toe. 
Beyond 2020, CO2 intensity will decline until 2040 at 295 t-C/million 2010 US$, while CO2 
per energy will  slightly increase at around 0.89 t-C/toe. CO2 per capita will continuously 
increase due to energy demand rising faster than population growth. (Figure 17.5).
Figure 17.5: Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
Source: Author’s calculations.
1990=100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Energy Intensity
Energy per capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita


325
3.2.  Energy Savings and CO2 Reduction Potential
3.2.1. 
 Total final energy consumption
In the Alternative Policy Scenario (or APS5, the TFEC is projected to increase at a slower 
rate of 3.4% per year (compared with 4.0% in the BAU scenario), from 56.3 Mtoe in 2015 
to 130.2 Mtoe in 2040 because of EEC measures (APS1) in the industry, transport, and 
‘others’ sectors. The total final consumption by sector in APSs compared to the BAU 
scenario is presented in Figure 17.6.
The bulk of the savings are expected to occur in the industry sector with 13.7 Mtoe 
(equivalent to 17.5% reduction), followed by the transport sector with 4.3 Mtoe 
(equivalent to 11.5% reduction), and the ‘others’ sector with 2.8 Mtoe (equivalent to 9.0% 
reduction).
An improvement in end-use technologies and the introduction of energy management 
systems are expected to contribute to the slower rate of consumption growth, particularly 
in the industry, transport, and ‘others’ sectors (Figure 17.7).
Figure 17.6: Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector in BAU and APSs
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Mtoe
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.2. 
 Total primary energy supply
In APS5, the TPES is projected to increase at a slower rate of 3.9% per year, from 70.1 
Mtoe in 2015 to 183.7 Mtoe in 2040. Coal is projected to grow at the highest average 
annual rate of 5.2% compared with 6.6% in the BAU scenario. This is followed by oil (4.8%) 
and natural gas (3.6%), compared with 5.4% and 4.1% in the BAU scenario, respectively, 
over the same period. 
The slower growth in consumption, compared to the BAU scenario, stems from EEC 
measures on the demand side (APS1), and the more aggressive uptake of energy efficiency 
in thermal power plants (APS2) and renewables (APS3) on the supply side. Coal has 
the highest energy savings potential with 28.2%, followed by oil (13.9%) and natural gas 
(11.9%). Figure 17.8 shows the primary energy saving potential by fuel under the BAU 
scenario and APS.
Figure 17.7: Final Energy Consumption, BAU vs APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Mtoe
0.0%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–17.5%
–9.0%
–11.5%


327
Figure 17.8: Primary Energy Saving Potential by Fuel 
Type, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
81.8%
–28.2%
–13.9%
–11.9%
The total savings amount to 36.3 Mtoe, equivalent to 16.5% of Viet Nam’s TPEC in 2040. 
(see Figure 17.9).
Figure 17.9: Evolution of Primary Energy Supply, 
BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Mtoe
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
36Mtoe,-16.5%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.3. 
 CO2 reduction potential
CO2 emissions from energy consumption under the BAU scenario are projected to increase 
by 5.7% per year from 49.0 million metric tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 195.2 Mt-C in 
2040. Meanwhile, under APS5, the annual increase in CO2 emissions between 2015 and 
2040 is projected to be 4.6% yearly, which is 1.1 percentage points lower than the BAU 
scenario. 
Reduced CO2 emissions are mostly derived from EEC measures on the demand side 
(APS1). Moreover, improvement of energy efficiency in thermal power plants (APS2) and 
development of renewable energy technologies (APS3) also contributed significantly to 
CO2 reduction (Figure 17.10). 
Improvements on CO2 emissions under the APSs will be around 45.3 Mt-C lower, equal 
to 23.2% reduction in 2040. This indicates that the energy saving goals and action plans of 
Viet Nam are effective in reducing CO2 emissions (see Figure 17.11).
Figure 17.10: CO2 Emissions by Fuel Type, BAU and APSs
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-c = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculations.
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Mt-C
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas


329
Figure 17.11: Evolution of CO2 Emissions, 
BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-c = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Mt-C
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
45.3Mt-C,-23.2%
4. 
  Review of Viet Nam’s INDC and APS5 Results 
In September 2015, Viet Nam submitted its Intended Nationally Determined 
Contributions (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 
Viet Nam’s INDC includes mitigation and adaptation components and covers the entire 
economy, including the energy; agriculture; land use, land use change, and forestry; and 
waste sectors. The mitigation component includes both unconditional and conditional 
contributions. Unconditional contributions are measures implemented using domestic 
resources, while conditional contributions are those that could be implemented if new 
and additional international financial support, technology transfer, and capacity building 
are received.
With domestic resources, by 2030, Viet Nam will reduce GHG emissions by 8% compared 
to the BAU scenario, equal to around 63 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent 
(tCO2e). The contribution of the energy sector on GHG emissions reduction by 2030 
will be 29.5 million tCO2e, accounting for 46.8% of total GHG emissions reduction under 
unconditional contribution.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The above-mentioned 8% contribution could be increased to 25%, with international 
support, equal to around 197 million tCO2e. The contribution of the energy sector on 
GHG emissions reduction by 2030 will be 65.9 million tCO2e, accounting for 33.5% of 
total GHG emissions reduction under conditional contribution. 
GHG mitigation goals in the energy sector are expected to be attained through the 
potential mitigation options in the industry, transport, and ‘others’ sectors on the demand 
side and the development of renewable energy technologies, particularly solar, wind, and 
biomass for power generation, on the supply side. 
These options were proposed and selected based on the following criteria: government 
prioritisation, GHG reduction potential, cost-effectiveness, and the maturity of technology 
development, which can be classified by unconditional and conditional contributions as 
follows: 
• 
Prioritised mitigation options: GHG reduction potential, alignment with government 
policies, cost-effectiveness, and maturity of technologies
• 
Unconditional: low abatement costs, already implemented in Viet Nam, aligned with 
sectoral plans for 2021–2030
• 
Conditional: higher abatement costs and new technologies currently implemented in 
developed countries.
To evaluate and compare GHG emissions reduction potential and targets with Viet Nam’s 
INDC, the author classified the mitigation technologies in APS5 and based on the above 
criteria to compare APS5 of this study with INDC on GHG emissions reduction.
Under APS5, with domestic resources, Viet Nam will reduce by 2030 33.7 million tCO2e 
(or 6.3% reduction) compared to 29.5 million tCO2e (or 5.5% reduction) in the INDC. 
These GHG emissions will further decrease to 76.9 million tCO2e (or 14.4% reduction) 
compared to 65.9 million tCO2e (or 12.3% reduction) in the INDC under conditional 
contribution with international support.


331
In both the INDC and APS5, the power generation and industry sectors have high 
potential in reducing GHG. Compared to Viet Nam’s INDC on GHG emissions reduction 
targets, those in APS5 look similar but seem to be more ambitious due to new policies and 
technologies being updated. These also prove that if APS5 were implemented, Viet Nam’s 
INDC would be achieved.  
5.   Key Findings and Policy Implications
The following are some key findings from the above analysis on energy savings potential:
• 
Energy demand in Viet Nam is expected to continue to grow significantly, driven 
by robust economic growth, industrialisation, urbanisation, and population growth. 
EEC measures can potentially contribute to meeting higher demand in a sustainable 
manner. 
• 
Viet Nam’s energy intensity, which is amongst the highest in the world, indicates high 
savings potential. 
• 
Electricity demand is increasing with highest annual growth rate of 5.3% in the BAU 
scenario and is projected to decline to 4.7% in the APS. This decline proves that the 
EEC measures are effective in electricity demand. 
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual Scenario, GHG = greenhouse gases,   
 
 
 
INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, Mt-CO2 = million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
MtCO2e
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
BAU
Un-Con INDC
Con INDC
Un-Con APS5
Con APS5
Industry
Supply side
Transport
Others
29.5 Mt-CO2,–5.5%
65.9 Mt-CO2,–12.3%
33.7 Mt-CO2,–6.3%
76.9 Mt-CO2,–14.4%
Figure 17.12: GHG Reduction Targets, APS5 vs INDC
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
• 
EEC scenarios on the demand side are most effective compared with other proposed 
scenarios, which are APS2 and APS3. 
• 
Coal-fired thermal power plants will be the major power source in Viet Nam in 
the coming years. Their share in the total power generation output is increasing 
continuously from 31.9% in 2015 to 68.9% in 2040 in the BAU scenario. This is the 
area with the largest energy savings and GHG mitigation potential in both Viet Nam’s 
INDC and APS5.  
• 
GHG mitigation technologies in APS5 will be developed to conform with Viet Nam’s 
INDC and government policies.
The following policies are recommended to effectively implement EEC activities in Viet 
Nam:
• 
Establishment of new targets and a roadmap for EEC implementation: Energy 
demand in Viet Nam in the BAU scenario is expected to continue to grow significantly 
in the coming years. EEC scenarios on the demand side are most effective compared 
to other proposed scenarios (APS2 and APS3). Therefore, Viet Nam needs to 
strengthen EEC activities by updating and setting new targets globally and specifically 
in each sector for the next periods and by preparing specific road maps or action plans 
to achieve these targets.    
• 
Compulsory energy standards and labelling for electrical appliances: The annual 
growth of electricity demand, especially in the ‘others’ sector, is projected to be the 
second highest (5.3%) in the BAU scenario. Therefore, compulsory energy standards 
and labelling for electrical appliances is an effective management measure in energy 
savings.  
• 
Priority for development of advanced coal-fired thermal power technology: 
Coal-fired thermal power plants will be the major source of power generation in Viet 
Nam up to 2040. Therefore, Viet Nam needs to retrofit the existing thermal power 
plants to improve the efficiency of power generation and to prioritise energy-effective 
technologies (clean coal technologies) for the development of new coal-fired thermal 
power plants. 
• 
Priority for renewable energy development: Coal-fired power generation is 
projected to have a dominant share in the future, which will result in the country’s 
reliance on coal imports for power generation. The development of renewable energy 
technologies to replace coal for power generation is an important factor for energy 
independence, energy security, and GHG abatement. This is necessary in setting up 
policy support and mechanisms to promote renewable energy development.


333
References
Government of Viet Nam (2006), Decision 79/2006/QD-TTg dated 14 April 2006 
of the Prime Minister Approving the National Target Program on Energy Savings and 
Conservation. Ha Noi.
Government of Viet Nam (2007), Decision 177/2007/QD-TTg dated 20 November 
2007 of the Prime Minister Approving the Master Plan on Biofuel Development Until 
2015 with Perspective of 2025. Ha Noi.
Government of Viet Nam (2015), Decision No. 2068/QD-TTg dated 2 November 2015 
of the Prime Minister Approving ‘The Vietnam Renewable Energy Development Strategy 
to 2030, Outlook Up to 2050. Ha Noi.
General Statistics Office, Government of Viet Nam (2011), Viet Nam Population 
Forecasts 2009–2049. Ha Noi. 
General Statistics Office, Government of Viet Nam (2015), Statistical Yearbook of Viet 
Nam. Ha Noi. 
Institute of Energy, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Government of Viet Nam (2015), 
Revised Power Development Plan for the Period of 2011–2020 with Perspective to 2030. 
Ha Noi. 
Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (2015), Technical Report. Viet Nam's 
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, Ha Noi: Ministry of Natural Resource and 
Environment.
The National Assembly of Viet Nam (2010), Law on Energy Savings and Conservation 
(2010). Ha Noi: The National Assembly of Viet Nam.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
UNITED STATES COUNTRY 
REPORT
1.   Introduction
The United States (US) is the fourth-largest country in the world by total area and the 
third largest by population. Since 1990, its population has grown at an average annual 
rate of 2.4%, reaching approximately 321 million in 2015.1 As of 2018, 82.3% of its total 
population lives in urban areas, with the trend towards increased urbanisation expected 
to continue at an average annual rate of change of 0.95% throughout the current 2015–
2020 period (CIA, 2018). 
The US is also the world’s second-largest economy, with a gross domestic product (GDP) 
of $16.9 trillion and per capita income of 51,640in2015(bothinconstant2010US 
values). By sector of origin, 80.2% of its GDP can be linked to services, while 18.9% is 
linked to industrial output, including motor vehicles, aerospace, chemicals, and consumer 
goods. Agriculture, including wheat, corn, beef, dairy, and forest products, makes up the 
remaining 0.9% (CIA, 2018). International trade also plays a crucial role in the overall 
strength and health of the US economy. As one measure of this, studies have suggested 
that in numerous areas of the country, more than one-quarter of state-level GDP can 
be attributed to international trade, including in Washington, Michigan, Louisiana, Texas, 
and New Jersey (Perry, 2018). 
CHAPTER 18
Clara Gillispie, The National Bureau of Asia Research 
Seiya Endo, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
1 
Unless otherwise cited, all data in this report can be attributed to economic modelling results for the United States of 
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, which are included in full as an annex to this publication. 


335
1.1.  Energy Situation
The US is the world’s second-largest consumer of energy and the second-largest emitter 
of CO2, though by per capita measures, it ranks first in both categories. In 1990, its final 
energy consumption was 1,294 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe). Over the following 
decade, consumption increased to 1,546 Mtoe in 2000, and then experienced a modest 
overall decline in 2000 to 2015 so that consumption was 1,520 Mtoe as of the end of 
2015. Different studies have contested whether this indicates that US consumption has 
peaked, or if a gradual recovery in economic activity following the 2007–2008 global 
economic crisis may have ultimately reversed this trend. Periodically cited as evidence is 
that between 1990 and 2015, only industry sector consumption declined overall (though 
non-energy sector consumption has also declined in the period since 2000). Meanwhile, 
energy consumption in the ‘others’ (residential/commercial/public) sector and transport 
grew steadily. 
During this period, coal consumption also declined sharply from 56 Mtoe to 20 Mtoe, but 
growth in consumption of natural gas and renewables more than offset this decline. A key 
contributor to this is the major shift under way in the US’s domestic energy supply outlook. 
While the country has long had abundant, diverse resource potential – including substantial 
natural endowments in fossil fuels such as coal, shale oil, and natural gas; geothermal 
and hydroelectric potential; and favourable conditions for wind and solar energy – up 
until recently, significant portions of this potential were not considered technically or 
economically viable. However, since the 2000s, breakthroughs in technology, declining 
production costs, and favourable environments for development and investment have 
contributed to a growing abundance in accessible domestic resource potential. Between 
2008 and 2013, the incremental increase alone of US daily oil production was equivalent 
to the total daily oil production of Iraq in 2010 (Richardson-Barlow et al., 2014). The 
International Energy Agency estimates that the US will be the world’s largest oil producer 
by 2023. Natural gas production also increased twelvefold during a similar period, resulting 
in the US becoming a top producer of natural gas (Richardson-Barlow et al., 2014). 
As has been well documented, such developments are now having a crucial, transformative 
impact on reshaping US energy outlooks. Rises in production levels of oil and natural gas 
are contributing to reducing or backing out of import requirements from Canada and other 
country sources. Combined with other market and policy factors, energy independence 
is also contributing to accelerating trends in transforming the US power generation mix. 
In 2014, for the first time ever, natural gas surpassed coal as the single largest share of 
US power generation. Meanwhile, increasingly favourable economics, coupled with 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
supportive domestic policy environments, also contributed to significant increases in 
consumption levels for wind and solar, which grew at the largest rates of increase of any 
fuel source in between 1990 and 2015. In some states of the US, including Texas and 
Iowa, wind energy is considered cost competitive with traditional fuel sources, which may 
further incentivise further consumption (Gillespie, Johnson, and Schwartz, 2017). 
Expanded production and reduced requirements for domestic consumption (particularly 
of abundant, high-quality indigenous coal resources) have also opened the door for the 
US to play an increasingly important role as a key exporter to the Asia-Pacific region. To 
date, US liquefied natural gas exports have been delivered to several major economies in 
Asia, including Japan, Taiwan, India, the Republic of  Korea, and China, and frequency 
and volumes are anticipated to grow exponentially in the coming decades (EIA, 2018a). 
The US is also becoming an increasingly important supplier of crude oil to Asia. It is 
also an important global exporter of coal, with India, the Republic of  Korea, and Japan 
representing three of the top five recipients of US steam coal exports in 2017 (EIA, 2018b). 
Going forward, while each of these fuel sources may potentially contribute immensely to 
strengthening regional energy security outlooks, factors such as overall competitiveness 
of US supplies, social licence considerations in both the US and Asian countries, and the 
need to overcome current bottlenecks in US transport infrastructure may limit the overall 
potential of US export growth. 
2.   Modelling Assumptions 
Over this study’s outlook period of 2015–2040, both overall GDP and population counts 
are projected to grow, though at markedly different rates – resulting in a trend of an overall 
rising per capita GDP (Figures 18.1 and 18.2). While US birth rates are projected to remain 
below replacement levels during the outlook window, its population continues to grow 
overall due to sustained immigration and improvements in life expectancies. However, at 
0.6% per year, population growth rate for the outlook period is still at a notably slower pace 
than the 1% of the previous 25-year period (CIA, 2018).


337
United States Country Report
Figure 18.1: GDP and Population (1990–2040)
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Authors’ assumptions.
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
5,000
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Population
GDP
billlion 2010 USmillionperson01020304050607080thousand2010US/person
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
36
45
52
55
64
74
Figure 18.2: Per Capita GDP (1990–2040)
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Calculation based on authors’ assumptions.
Between 1990 and 2015, US GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.4%. Despite 
significant disruption in this overarching trend during the 2007–2008 global economic 
crisis, the US economic outlook appears to have now recovered dramatically by several 
measures. However, ongoing questions about job creation rates and challenges in 
increasing productivity remain looming challenges to realising new gains in GDP growth. 
This model projects that GDP growth rates will re-stabilise over the outlook period at 
rates comparable, though modestly lower, than the prior 25 years. Between 2015 and 
2040, average annual growth will continue at 2.1% per year, and each decade snapshot 
will relatively closely mirror this overall trend (with the 2030–2040 period being the 
sole outlier at the slightly slower pace of 2%). This estimate aligns with expectations of 
continued efficiency and productivity gains alongside the above modest but sustained 


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
population growth, as well as continued US leadership and commitment to innovation in 
emerging fields. 
In terms of overall total final energy consumption (TFEC), oil is anticipated to retain its 
dominance through the outlook period, reflecting that by sector, transport also remains 
the single largest driver of the TFEC. In electricity generation, while coal, nuclear energy, 
and hydropower are each anticipated to remain critical components of the overall US mix, 
each of these sources is anticipated to decline in terms of their overall share between 
2015 and 2040. This is primarily due to unfavourable economics and domestic policy and 
social licence factors when compared with the outlooks for non-hydro renewables and 
natural gas. Investments in cleaner consumption technologies as well as the retirement of 
ageing coal-fired power fleets are also anticipated to boost overall efficiency of generation. 
However, uncertainties about the pace and scale of retirement of existing nuclear power 
plants weigh on the overall trajectory for reducing CO2 emissions. 
The Alternative Policy Scenarios (APSs) assume progress towards the full implementation 
and realisation of a range of established efforts to strengthen a country’s energy-saving 
potential. For the US, these include efforts to strengthen efficiency of final energy demand, 
improve efficient thermal power generation, sustain a robust role for nuclear energy as a 
source of baseload power generation, and realise a higher contribution from renewable 
energy in total supply. Calculations are modelled based on a review and assessment of 
current laws and policies in place at the national and state levels. This study then reviews 
the results of the APSs to determine cumulative impact in promoting CO2 emissions 
reductions and encouraging energy savings beyond business-as-usual. 
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the TFEC is anticipated to decline slightly 
between 2015 and 2040, though at 1,515 Mtoe, it remains well above 1990 levels (Figure 
18.3). The transport sector is the only sector whose consumption is anticipated to decline, 
with efficiency improvements and other structural changes within the sector offsetting 
prospects for additional consumption despite continued growth in vehicle ownership. 
Meanwhile, consumption by industry, non-energy, and ‘others’ (residential/commercial) 
sector grows. The largest growth is experienced in the ‘others’ sector, though non-energy 
sector consumption grows at the fastest rate. 


339
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
-
Mtoe
284
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
332
262
629
506
123
1,520
259
613
516
127
1,515
264
584
537
137
1,522
265
559
549
142
1,5,15
588
473
153
1,546
488
403
119
1,294
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Figure 18.3: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
During this same period, electricity consumption is anticipated to grow from 325 Mtoe to 
376 Mtoe. Non-hydropower renewables, primarily wind and solar but also geothermal, 
will experience the most dramatic growth during this period. Natural gas consumption 
remains relatively stable up to 2030 but is anticipated to modestly decline through the 
end of the outlook period. Coal consumption declines throughout the entire 2015–2040 
period, although at a much slower pace than in the previous 25 years. Oil consumption 
experiences the most dramatic decline, given robust expectations for continued efficiency 
gains as well as switching in the transport sector to natural gas, biofuels, and other sources 
as well as increased deployment of electric vehicles (Figure 18.4).
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.1.2. Primary energy consumption
Under the BAU scenario, total primary energy consumption is anticipated to decline from 
2,188.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 2,143 Mtoe in 2040, with an average annual rate of decline of 
0.1%. Of note, much of this overall decline is also anticipated to already have occurred 
by 2020. Coal consumption is anticipated to decline at a rate of 1.0% during this period, 
while nuclear declines by 0.5%. In contrast, non-hydropower renewables experience the 
largest growth in consumption during this period at 5.3%, closely followed by geothermal 
at 4.4% (Figure 18.5).
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
-150
-100
-50
50
100
150
0
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
Mtoe
2015–2040
1990–2015
Figure 18.4: Changes in Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU


341
Figure 18.5: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
-
Mtoe
1990
460
757
438
159
63
1,915
2000
534
871
548
208
78
2,273
2015
374
794
646
216
127
2,188
2020
335
766
664
210
152
2,165
2030
311
719
702
209
180
2,167
2040
289
677
725
191
209
2,143
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
3.1.3. 
 Power generation
Figure 18.6: Power Generation under BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
-
1990
3,203
1,700
382
612
2000
2,129
634
798
2015
1,471
1,373
830
2020
1,316
1,512
806
2030
1,303
1,672
801
2040
1,279
1,854
732
273
253
4,026
251
315
4,297
291
495
4,462
295
705
4,831
298
943
5,174
TWh
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Electricity generation in the US, under the BAU scenario, is projected to increase over 
the outlook period, though at a comparatively slower pace than in the previous 25 years. 
Generation output increases from 4,297.0 terawatt hours (TWh) to 5,173.8 TWh 
between 2015 and 2040, for an average annual growth rate of 0.7%. 
After surpassing coal as the single largest share of the US’s power generation mix in 
2014, natural gas retains its number one rank through 2040, representing 35.8% of the 
overall mix. The largest average annual growth rates are seen in non-hydro renewables, 
most prominently solar and wind, as well as potentially geothermal. Improved economics 
alongside other considerations could also contribute to incentivising higher levels 
of consumption of wind and solar though, as aptly noted by the Energy Information 
Administration, many existing tax credits will begin to expire in the early 2020s, potentially 
raising questions for the road ahead (Figure 18.6). 
The retirement of older, less-efficient coal-fired plants and ongoing technological 
improvements promoting more efficient consumption are assumed to play important roles 
in shaping this outlook alongside broader market and policy forces that may incentivise 
switching. Coal continues its decline at 0.6% a year, though it is still anticipated to account 
for roughly one-quarter of all US power generation in 2040. Uncertainties in investments 
and progress towards strengthening existing, ageing grid infrastructure may also challenge 
efforts to bring new generation online in ways that promote energy savings and CO2 
reductions (Figure 18.7). 
Figure 18.7: Share of Power Generation Mix under BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990
53%
53%
6%
4%
9%
2000
2015
34%
32%
6%
7%
2020
29%
34%
7%
11%
2030
27%
35%
6%
15%
2040
25%
36%
6%
18%
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


343
3.2  Energy Savings in the APS and CO2 Reduction Potential 
3.2.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Under the APS, this study projects that early signs of declining TFEC in the US will be 
affirmed and that the overall rate of decline will also be accelerated. Under the APS, this 
study anticipates that in 2015–2040, consumption will decline from 1,520 Mtoe to 1,379 
Mtoe. When compared with the BAU scenario, this shows an energy savings of 135.8 Mtoe 
or 9% during the period. Transportation realises a savings of 57.6 Mtoe (10.3%); industry, 
21.8 Mtoe (8.2%); and residential and commercial, 56.4 Mtoe (10.3%). Meanwhile, in 
contrast to expectations under the BAU scenario, all sectors save for non-energy now 
realise some level of declining overall consumption (Figure 18.8).
Figure 18.8: Final Energy Consumption by Sector in BAU vs. APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Under the APS, US primary energy consumption is anticipated to decrease from 2,188.3 
Mtoe in 2015 from 1,910.2 Mtoe in 2050. This implies that, in 2040, under the APS, 
savings of primary energy consumption will be around 232.73 Mtoe or 10.9% lower 
compared with the BAU scenario (Figure 18.9).
Coal in the primary energy demand in the APS is expected to decline to 129.7 Mtoe. This 
represents a total energy saving of 159.6 Mtoe in 2040 compared with the BAU scenario. 
Oil consumption is also anticipated to decline compared to the BAU scenario, with a 
potential saving of 109.3 Mtoe (or 16.1%) by 2040, while natural gas is also anticipated to 
see a similar level of decline. In contrast, the demand for others (renewables) is anticipated 
to increase to about 270.35 Mtoe (40.9%) compared to the BAU scenario in 2040 (Figure 
18.10).
3.2.2. 
 Primary energy supply 
Figure 18.9: Total Primary Energy Supply in BAU vs APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
1750.0
1800.0
1900.0
2000.0
2050.0
2100.0
2150.0
2200.0
2250.0
1850.0
1950.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS


345
Figure 18.10: Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel in BAU vs APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1000.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
+40.9%
–55.2%
–16.1%
–13.5%
3.3.  CO2 Emissions 
CO2 emissions from energy consumption, under the BAU scenario, are anticipated to 
decline modestly – from 1,382.9 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 1,228.9 Mt-C 
in 2040. This is equivalent to a decrease in average annual rate of 0.5%. Key drivers of 
this shift is due to continued fuel switching in the electricity mix of the US. Decreased 
consumption of coal and oil and increased consumption of natural gas and non-fossil 
sources contribute to modest improvements in the country’s overall emissions profile.
In the APS, CO2 emissions are projected to decrease at an average annual rate of 1.7%, 
from 1,382.9 Mt-C in 2015 to 902.2 Mt-C in 2040. Emissions savings in the APS are thus 
26.6% compared to the BAU scenario in 2040. The most dramatic shifts in primary energy 
consumption between the BAU scenario and the APS are linked to the acceleration of 
trends in reducing coal – a difference of 55.2% by 2040 – while oil consumption is reduced 
by an additional 16.1% and gas by an additional 13.5% (Figure 18.11). 
In the official submission of its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), the 
US pledged to reduce CO2 emissions from their 2005 levels by 26%–28% by 2025. While 
the current US (Trump) administration has raised the prospects of revising or abandoning 
its current INDC pledge, this study suggests that the US has already made substantial 
progress towards this goal. However, even under the APS, more robust actions may be 
necessary to achieve this target by 2025. 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4. 
  Policy Implications 
Based on the results and discussions presented above, the following policy implications 
could be derived:
• 
Coal, oil, and natural gas will continue to dominate the US energy mix in both the 
BAU scenario and the APS. 
• 
Natural gas will remain as the single greatest share of the US electricity generation mix 
in 2015–2040, although non-hydro renewables such as wind and solar are anticipated 
to experience the largest growth rates. 
• 
Improved economics alongside sustained breakthroughs in renewable energy 
technologies could also contribute to incentivising higher levels of consumption in 
ways that further accelerate CO2 emissions and promote energy savings. However, 
as the Energy Information Administration  notes, substantial uncertainties lie ahead, 
including determining the implications and desirable responses to expiring tax credits 
and fiscal incentives for renewable energy in the 2020s. 
• 
Continued efforts to strengthen the transport sector are being envisioned as a critical 
opportunity to save energy under both the BAU scenario and the APS. In addition to 
accelerated deployment of electric vehicles, greater attention to fuel efficiency and 
technologies for overall cleaner consumption will be critical, given expectations of a 
continued prominent role for oil. 
Figure 18.11: CO2 Emissions Trends under APS (1990–2040)
Source: Authors’ calculation.
1990=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita


347
• 
Growing potential for US energy exports to Asia could contribute immensely to 
strengthening regional energy security outlooks. However, factors such as overall 
competitiveness, social licence considerations on both sides of the Pacific, and the 
need to overcome current bottlenecks in US transport infrastructure may limit overall 
US export growth potential. 
References
Gillispie, C., A. Johnson, and L. Schwartz (2017), Sustainable Futures: Energy and 
Environmental Security in Times of Transition, National Bureau of Asian Research, 
http://nbr.org/downloads/pdfs/eta/PES_2016_report.pdf (accessed 15 June 2018). 
Perry, M.J. (2018), ‘How Important is International Trade to each US State’s Economy? 
Pretty Important for most US States,’ Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 
http://www.aei.org/publication/how-important-is-international-trade-to-each-us-
states-economy-pretty-important-for-most-us-states/ (accessed 15 June 2018). 
Richardson-Barlow, C., H. Kincaide, and L. Schwartz with V.A.V. Murthy (2014), New 
Frontiers in Trans-Pacific Energy Trade, National Bureau of Asian Research, Seattle, 
http://nbr.org/downloads/pdfs/ETA/PEF_2014_report.pdf (accessed 15 June 2018).
US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) (2018), The World Factbook – United States, 
Washington, DC: US CIA, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-
factbook/geos/us.html (accessed 15 June 2018). 
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2018a), ‘U.S. Natural Gas Exports and Re-
Exports by Country,’ Washington, DC: EIA, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_
expc_s1_a.htm (accessed 15 June 2018).
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2018b), ‘U.S. Coal Exports Increased by 
61% in 2017 as Exports to Asia More than Doubled,’ Washington, DC: EIA, https://www.
eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35852 (accessed 15 June 2018).
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349
Results Summary Tables
RESULTS 
SUMMARY 
TABLES
ANNEX


350
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
16,861
23,941
39,023
46,476
55,279
65,967
78,166
91,534
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.5
Population (millions of people)
2,881
3,313
3,839
3,987
4,114
4,218
4,298
4,357
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.3
0.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 5.85 
 7.23 
 10.17 
 11.66 
 13.4 
 15.6 
 18.2 
 21.0 
2.2
2.8
3.0
3.0
2.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 1.37 
 1.52 
 1.95 
 2.07 
 2.17 
 2.27 
 2.39 
 2.51 
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 235 
 211 
 192 
 177 
 162 
 145 
 131 
 120 
-0.8
-1.5
-2.0
-1.9
-1.9
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 165 
 144 
 129 
 120 
 109 
 98 
 89 
 81 
-1.0
-1.4
-2.0
-1.9
-1.8
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 164 
 148 
 145 
 132 
 119 
 108 
 98 
 89 
-0.5
-1.9
-2.0
-1.8
-1.9
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.70 
 0.70 
 0.76 
 0.74 
 0.74 
 0.74 
 0.74 
 0.75 
0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3,955
5,049
7,488
8,249
8,928
9,595
10,255
10,943
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
2.0
1.5
1.3
1.5
Coal
1,230
1,558
3,103
3,297
3,511
3,754
4,002
4,254
31.1
30.9
41.4
40.0
39.3
39.1
39.0
38.9
3.8
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
Oil
1,361
1,751
2,082
2,320
2,488
2,652
2,801
2,981
34.4
34.7
27.8
28.1
27.9
27.6
27.3
27.2
1.7
2.2
1.3
1.2
1.4
Natural gas
557
772
1,155
1,296
1,444
1,607
1,785
1,972
14.1
15.3
15.4
15.7
16.2
16.8
17.4
18.0
3.0
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.2
Nuclear
227
329
316
404
473
520
526
543
5.8
6.5
4.2
4.9
5.3
5.4
5.1
5.0
1.3
5.0
2.5
0.4
2.2
Hydro
54
63
151
172
183
193
202
209
1.4
1.2
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
4.2
2.6
1.1
0.8
1.3
Geothermal
24
38
48
50
66
72
94
103
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.9
2.9
0.6
3.7
3.7
3.1
Others
501
537
632
710
762
798
845
881
12.7
10.6
8.4
8.6
8.5
8.3
8.2
8.1
0.9
2.4
1.2
1.0
1.3
Biomass
497
523
498
511
504
489
477
464
12.6
10.4
6.7
6.2
5.6
5.1
4.6
4.2
0.0
0.5
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
2
4
75
130
176
224
269
314
0.0
0.1
1.0
1.6
2.0
2.3
2.6
2.9
15.9
11.6
5.5
3.4
5.9
Biofuels
1
7
54
66
76
80
91
96
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
18.2
4.1
1.9
1.9
2.4
Electricity
0
2
5
4
5
6
9
7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
10.1
-4.8
5.3
0.5
1.3
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5,436
7,948
14,290
16,499
18,573
20,752
22,912
25,030
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.9
2.9
2.3
1.9
2.3
Coal
2,618
4,180
7,681
8,379
9,159
10,094
11,095
12,024
48.2
52.6
53.8
50.8
49.3
48.6
48.4
48.0
4.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.8
Oil
566
482
223
171
152
130
108
94
10.4
6.1
1.6
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
-3.7
-5.2
-2.7
-3.2
-3.4
Natural gas
621
1,157
2,546
2,916
3,296
3,748
4,289
4,846
11.4
14.6
17.8
17.7
17.7
18.1
18.7
19.4
5.8
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.6
Nuclear
873
1,262
1,213
1,550
1,816
1,994
2,019
2,084
16.1
15.9
8.5
9.4
9.8
9.6
8.8
8.3
1.3
5.0
2.5
0.4
2.2
Hydro
630
731
1,761
2,004
2,133
2,240
2,344
2,425
11.6
9.2
12.3
12.1
11.5
10.8
10.2
9.7
4.2
2.6
1.1
0.8
1.3
Geothermal
27
37
50
61
82
91
110
120
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
2.6
3.8
4.1
2.8
3.5
Others
101
98
815
1,418
1,935
2,455
2,948
3,436
1.9
1.2
5.7
8.6
10.4
11.8
12.9
13.7
8.7
11.7
5.6
3.4
5.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
910
1,377
2,274
2,440
2,643
2,884
3,150
3,412
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.7
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.6
Coal
643
1,024
1,764
1,890
2,038
2,216
2,403
2,577
70.7
74.3
77.6
77.5
77.1
76.8
76.3
75.5
4.1
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.5
Oil
126
112
53
41
36
30
24
21
13.8
8.1
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.1
0.8
0.6
-3.4
-5.2
-2.8
-3.5
-3.5
Natural gas
141
241
457
510
569
637
722
813
15.5
17.5
20.1
20.9
21.5
22.1
22.9
23.8
4.8
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2,762
3,534
5,660
6,132
6,604
7,108
7,621
8,189
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.5
Coal
1,349
1,719
3,369
3,577
3,824
4,096
4,378
4,673
48.8
48.6
59.5
58.3
57.9
57.6
57.4
57.1
3.7
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.3
Oil
1,033
1,306
1,514
1,645
1,751
1,866
1,987
2,140
37.4
36.9
26.7
26.8
26.5
26.2
26.1
26.1
1.5
1.7
1.3
1.4
1.4
Natural gas
380
509
776
910
1,029
1,147
1,257
1,377
13.8
14.4
13.7
14.8
15.6
16.1
16.5
16.8
2.9
3.2
2.3
1.8
2.3
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
36.0
36.3
39.5
40.4
41.0
41.7
42.3
42.8
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
Coal
35.0
35.1
37.5
38.1
38.7
39.2
39.7
40.1
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
Oil
38.7
37.0
36.3
36.3
36.1
36.8
38.0
37.7
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
Natural gas
37.9
41.2
47.9
49.2
49.8
50.6
51.0
51.3
0.9
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2,785
3,453
5,020
5,565
6,025
6,479
6,926
7,410
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
2.1
1.5
1.4
1.6
Industry
779
957
1,717
1,865
2,011
2,165
2,333
2,529
28.0
27.7
34.2
33.5
33.4
33.4
33.7
34.1
3.2
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.6
Transportation
681
910
1,275
1,466
1,596
1,712
1,817
1,936
24.5
26.4
25.4
26.3
26.5
26.4
26.2
26.1
2.5
2.8
1.6
1.2
1.7
Others
1,093
1,253
1,557
1,697
1,825
1,950
2,068
2,177
39.3
36.3
31.0
30.5
30.3
30.1
29.9
29.4
1.4
1.7
1.4
1.1
1.3
Non-energy
231
333
471
538
593
652
708
768
8.3
9.7
9.4
9.7
9.8
10.1
10.2
10.4
2.9
2.7
1.9
1.7
2.0
Total
2,785
3,453
5,020
5,565
6,025
6,479
6,926
7,410
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
2.1
1.5
1.4
1.6
Coal
456
393
908
963
1,024
1,083
1,141
1,218
16.4
11.4
18.1
17.3
17.0
16.7
16.5
16.4
2.8
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Oil
1,132
1,506
1,894
2,128
2,295
2,458
2,605
2,779
40.7
43.6
37.7
38.2
38.1
37.9
37.6
37.5
2.1
2.4
1.5
1.2
1.5
Natural gas
351
446
581
658
733
814
893
976
12.6
12.9
11.6
11.8
12.2
12.6
12.9
13.2
2.0
2.5
2.1
1.8
2.1
Electricity
383
574
1,047
1,206
1,359
1,524
1,693
1,858
13.8
16.6
20.8
21.7
22.6
23.5
24.4
25.1
4.1
2.9
2.4
2.0
2.3
Heat
16
35
94
101
107
113
118
122
0.6
1.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
7.4
1.6
1.1
0.7
1.1
Others
446
499
497
509
505
487
475
458
16.0
14.5
9.9
9.2
8.4
7.5
6.9
6.2
0.4
0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.3
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
EAS17 (BAU)


351
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
16,861
23,941
39,023
46,477
55,281
65,971
78,168
91,534
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.5
Population (millions of people)
2,881
3,313
3,839
3,990
4,117
4,222
4,303
4,360
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.3
0.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 5.85 
 7.23 
 10.17 
 11.65 
 13.4 
 15.6 
 18.2 
 21.0 
2.2
2.8
3.0
3.0
2.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 1.37 
 1.52 
 1.95 
 2.02 
 2.06 
 2.10 
 2.13 
 2.18 
1.4
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.4
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 235 
 211 
 192 
 174 
 154 
 134 
 117 
 104 
-0.8
-2.0
-2.5
-2.5
-2.4
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 165 
 144 
 129 
 117 
 104 
 92 
 81 
 72 
-1.0
-1.8
-2.4
-2.4
-2.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 164 
 148 
 145 
 127 
 108 
 92 
 78 
 68 
-0.5
-2.7
-3.1
-3.0
-3.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.70 
 0.70 
 0.76 
 0.73 
 0.70 
 0.69 
 0.67 
 0.65 
0.3
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3,955
5,049
7,487
8,072
8,486
8,857
9,182
9,512
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
1.5
0.9
0.7
1.0
Coal
1,230
1,558
3,103
3,149
3,138
3,144
3,115
3,100
31.1
30.9
41.4
39.0
37.0
35.5
33.9
32.6
3.8
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.0
Oil
1,361
1,751
2,082
2,285
2,372
2,439
2,492
2,573
34.4
34.7
27.8
28.3
27.9
27.5
27.1
27.0
1.7
1.9
0.7
0.5
0.9
Natural gas
557
772
1,155
1,252
1,343
1,441
1,531
1,620
14.1
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.8
16.3
16.7
17.0
3.0
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.4
Nuclear
227
329
316
416
522
603
677
752
5.8
6.5
4.2
5.2
6.2
6.8
7.4
7.9
1.3
5.6
3.8
2.2
3.5
Hydro
54
63
151
175
188
201
212
222
1.4
1.2
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
4.2
2.9
1.4
1.0
1.5
Geothermal
24
38
48
72
109
144
165
166
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
1.8
1.7
2.9
8.3
7.2
1.5
5.1
Others
501
537
632
724
814
886
990
1,078
12.7
10.6
8.4
9.0
9.6
10.0
10.8
11.3
0.9
2.8
2.0
2.0
2.2
Biomass
497
523
498
514
509
495
497
486
12.6
10.4
6.7
6.4
6.0
5.6
5.4
5.1
0.0
0.6
-0.4
-0.2
-0.1
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
2
4
75
139
212
282
364
445
0.0
0.1
1.0
1.7
2.5
3.2
4.0
4.7
15.9
13.0
7.3
4.7
7.4
Biofuels
1
7
54
68
89
104
123
142
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.8
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.5
18.2
4.8
4.3
3.2
4.0
Electricity
0
2
5
4
5
6
7
5
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
10.1
-5.1
3.9
-0.6
0.2
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5,436
7,948
14,289
16,176
17,811
19,498
21,144
22,709
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.9
2.5
1.9
1.5
1.9
Coal
2,618
4,180
7,681
7,915
7,947
8,086
8,111
8,126
48.2
52.6
53.8
48.9
44.6
41.5
38.4
35.8
4.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.2
Oil
566
482
223
196
163
134
103
89
10.4
6.1
1.6
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.4
-3.7
-2.6
-3.7
-4.0
-3.6
Natural gas
621
1,157
2,546
2,790
3,013
3,293
3,561
3,802
11.4
14.6
17.8
17.2
16.9
16.9
16.8
16.7
5.8
1.8
1.7
1.4
1.6
Nuclear
873
1,262
1,213
1,596
2,003
2,314
2,598
2,885
16.1
15.9
8.5
9.9
11.2
11.9
12.3
12.7
1.3
5.6
3.8
2.2
3.5
Hydro
630
731
1,761
2,034
2,181
2,332
2,468
2,586
11.6
9.2
12.3
12.6
12.2
12.0
11.7
11.4
4.2
2.9
1.4
1.0
1.5
Geothermal
27
37
50
75
121
154
175
185
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
2.6
8.3
7.5
1.8
5.3
Others
101
98
815
1,569
2,384
3,183
4,128
5,036
1.9
1.2
5.7
9.7
13.4
16.3
19.5
22.2
8.7
14.0
7.3
4.7
7.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
910
1,377
2,274
2,300
2,278
2,285
2,269
2,260
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.7
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
Coal
643
1,024
1,764
1,771
1,731
1,714
1,675
1,640
70.7
74.3
77.6
77.0
76.0
75.0
73.8
72.6
4.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
Oil
126
112
53
47
39
32
24
21
13.8
8.1
2.3
2.1
1.7
1.4
1.0
0.9
-3.4
-2.1
-3.9
-4.2
-3.7
Natural gas
141
241
457
481
508
540
570
599
15.5
17.5
20.1
20.9
22.3
23.6
25.1
26.5
4.8
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2,762
3,534
5,660
5,884
5,963
6,067
6,118
6,207
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.4
Coal
1,349
1,719
3,369
3,406
3,388
3,401
3,379
3,365
48.8
48.6
59.5
57.9
56.8
56.1
55.2
54.2
3.7
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
Oil
1,033
1,306
1,514
1,615
1,644
1,672
1,695
1,748
37.4
36.9
26.8
27.5
27.6
27.6
27.7
28.2
1.5
1.3
0.3
0.4
0.6
Natural gas
380
509
776
863
931
995
1,044
1,094
13.8
14.4
13.7
14.7
15.6
16.4
17.1
17.6
2.9
2.1
1.4
1.0
1.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
36.0
36.3
39.5
40.8
42.0
43.3
44.6
45.7
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
Coal
35.0
35.1
37.5
38.4
39.5
40.6
41.6
42.6
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Oil
38.7
37.0
36.3
35.5
35.8
36.4
37.5
37.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Natural gas
37.9
41.2
47.9
49.9
51.0
52.5
53.7
54.6
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2,785
3,453
5,020
5,457
5,775
6,058
6,324
6,615
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
1.7
1.1
0.9
1.1
Industry
779
957
1,717
1,821
1,922
2,024
2,127
2,240
28.0
27.7
34.2
33.4
33.3
33.4
33.6
33.9
3.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.1
Transportation
681
910
1,275
1,427
1,504
1,552
1,594
1,653
24.5
26.4
25.4
26.2
26.0
25.6
25.2
25.0
2.5
2.3
0.8
0.6
1.0
Others
1,093
1,253
1,557
1,670
1,756
1,830
1,896
1,954
39.3
36.3
31.0
30.6
30.4
30.2
30.0
29.5
1.4
1.4
0.9
0.7
0.9
Non-energy
231
333
471
538
593
652
708
768
8.3
9.7
9.4
9.9
10.3
10.8
11.2
11.6
2.9
2.7
1.9
1.7
2.0
Total
2,785
3,453
5,020
5,457
5,775
6,058
6,324
6,615
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
1.7
1.1
0.9
1.1
Coal
456
393
908
947
991
1,029
1,060
1,102
16.4
11.4
18.1
17.3
17.2
17.0
16.8
16.7
2.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
Oil
1,132
1,506
1,894
2,087
2,180
2,252
2,311
2,391
40.7
43.6
37.7
38.2
37.8
37.2
36.5
36.1
2.1
2.0
0.8
0.6
0.9
Natural gas
351
446
581
645
703
761
816
871
12.6
12.9
11.6
11.8
12.2
12.6
12.9
13.2
2.0
2.1
1.7
1.4
1.6
Electricity
383
574
1,047
1,182
1,304
1,433
1,563
1,688
13.8
16.6
20.8
21.7
22.6
23.7
24.7
25.5
4.1
2.5
1.9
1.7
1.9
Heat
16
35
94
99
102
106
108
108
0.6
1.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
7.4
1.1
0.7
0.2
0.6
Others
446
499
497
497
495
478
466
455
16.0
14.5
9.9
9.1
8.6
7.9
7.4
6.9
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
EAS17 (APS)


352
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
636
881
1,355
1,561
1,782
2,016
2,260
2,510
3.1
2.9
2.6
2.2
2.5
Population (millions of people)
17
19
24
25
27
28
30
31
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.9
1.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 37.30 
 46.01 
 56.95 
 61.49 
 66.4 
 71.4 
 76.6 
 81.6 
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 5.06 
 5.38 
 5.27 
 5.07 
 4.97 
 4.84 
 4.70 
 4.55 
0.2
-0.8
-0.5
-0.6
-0.6
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 136 
 117 
 92 
 82 
 75 
 68 
 61 
 56 
-1.5
-2.3
-1.9
-1.9
-2.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 89 
 79 
 60 
 54 
 49 
 44 
 41 
 37 
-1.6
-2.1
-1.9
-1.7
-1.9
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 110 
 95 
 73 
 63 
 57 
 51 
 45 
 40 
-1.6
-2.7
-2.3
-2.3
-2.4
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.81 
 0.81 
 0.79 
 0.77 
 0.76 
 0.75 
 0.73 
 0.72 
-0.1
-0.5
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 10 
 12 
 17 
 19 
 20 
 22 
 23 
 24 
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.4
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.573 
 0.642 
 0.721 
 0.734 
 0.748 
 0.762 
 0.776 
 0.789 
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
86.4
103.1
125.3
128.7
133.5
136.7
138.7
140.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.4
Coal
35.1
43.1
42.9
41.0
40.7
39.5
37.6
35.4
40.7
41.8
34.2
31.8
30.5
28.9
27.1
25.3
0.8
-0.9
-0.4
-1.1
-0.8
Oil
31.2
34.2
41.9
42.6
42.8
42.8
42.7
42.3
36.1
33.1
33.4
33.1
32.1
31.4
30.8
30.2
1.2
0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.0
Natural gas
14.8
19.3
32.2
35.1
38.8
41.8
44.5
46.9
17.1
18.7
25.7
27.2
29.0
30.6
32.1
33.5
3.2
1.7
1.8
1.1
1.5
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
1.2
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
-0.2
5.8
0.0
0.0
1.1
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
111.9
1.1
1.0
17.2
Others
4.0
5.1
7.1
8.5
9.7
11.0
12.4
13.8
4.7
5.0
5.7
6.6
7.3
8.0
9.0
9.9
2.3
3.5
2.6
2.4
2.7
Biomass
4.0
4.9
4.6
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.1
4.6
4.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
0.6
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.4
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.1
0.1
1.9
2.9
4.0
5.1
6.4
7.8
0.1
0.1
1.5
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.6
5.6
13.3
9.5
5.7
4.4
5.9
Biofuels
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
-
1.9
1.0
0.9
1.1
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
154.3
209.9
252.3
274.9
299.7
325.1
350.0
373.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.0
1.7
1.7
1.4
1.6
Coal
121.5
174.2
158.6
154.1
153.2
151.8
147.3
141.4
78.7
83.0
62.9
56.0
51.1
46.7
42.1
37.8
1.1
-0.6
-0.1
-0.7
-0.5
Oil
3.6
1.8
6.8
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.6
2.3
0.9
2.7
2.4
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
2.6
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.1
Natural gas
14.4
16.2
52.5
63.0
76.1
90.5
104.4
118.6
9.3
7.7
20.8
22.9
25.4
27.8
29.8
31.7
5.3
3.7
3.7
2.7
3.3
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
14.1
16.4
13.4
17.7
17.7
17.7
17.7
17.7
9.2
7.8
5.3
6.4
5.9
5.4
5.1
4.7
-0.2
5.8
0.0
0.0
1.1
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
111.9
1.1
1.0
17.2
Others
0.8
1.2
21.0
33.4
45.8
58.2
73.8
89.4
0.5
0.6
8.3
12.2
15.3
17.9
21.1
23.9
14.3
9.7
5.7
4.4
6.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
33.3
45.8
52.0
52.2
54.8
56.0
56.2
56.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.8
0.1
0.7
0.0
0.3
Coal
28.9
41.2
38.8
36.9
36.7
35.6
33.9
31.9
86.8
90.0
74.5
70.8
66.9
63.6
60.3
56.9
1.2
-1.0
-0.4
-1.1
-0.8
Oil
0.9
0.5
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.8
1.1
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
1.5
2.4
0.3
-0.1
0.5
Natural gas
3.5
4.1
11.9
13.7
16.6
18.8
20.7
22.6
10.4
8.9
22.9
26.3
30.2
33.5
36.9
40.3
5.0
2.9
3.2
1.8
2.6
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
70.3
83.9
98.8
99.1
101.2
101.9
101.3
100.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.4
0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.1
Coal
37.9
46.6
46.3
44.3
43.9
42.6
40.6
38.3
54.0
55.5
46.9
44.7
43.4
41.8
40.0
38.2
0.8
-0.9
-0.4
-1.1
-0.8
Oil
23.2
25.2
32.3
32.9
33.0
33.0
32.9
32.6
33.0
30.0
32.7
33.2
32.6
32.4
32.4
32.5
1.3
0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.0
Natural gas
9.2
12.1
20.1
21.9
24.3
26.2
27.9
29.4
13.1
14.5
20.4
22.1
24.0
25.7
27.5
29.3
3.2
1.7
1.8
1.2
1.5
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
36.0
36.1
36.0
36.9
37.0
38.3
39.6
40.9
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.5
Coal
36.1
36.4
35.2
35.9
35.9
36.7
37.4
38.1
-0.1
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.3
Oil
32.3
29.2
42.9
37.5
37.2
36.9
36.6
36.3
1.1
-2.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.7
Natural gas
35.6
34.4
38.0
39.5
39.5
41.4
43.3
45.2
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.9
0.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
56.7
69.6
81.3
84.4
87.1
89.7
92.0
94.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.6
Industry
19.3
23.8
24.0
25.1
25.8
26.5
27.0
27.5
34.1
34.2
29.5
29.7
29.6
29.5
29.4
29.2
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.5
Transportation
21.1
25.7
32.5
33.0
33.1
33.3
33.4
33.5
37.3
36.9
40.0
39.1
38.1
37.1
36.3
35.6
1.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
Others
12.3
15.7
20.7
22.2
23.9
25.6
27.2
28.7
21.7
22.6
25.5
26.3
27.5
28.6
29.6
30.5
2.1
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.3
Non-energy
4.0
4.4
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.4
7.0
6.4
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.7
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
Total
56.7
69.6
81.3
84.4
87.1
89.7
92.0
94.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.6
Coal
4.6
4.2
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
8.0
6.0
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
-2.6
-0.5
-0.9
-1.2
-0.9
Oil
29.0
34.7
42.6
43.2
43.4
43.5
43.4
43.2
51.2
49.9
52.4
51.2
49.8
48.5
47.2
46.0
1.5
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.1
Natural gas
8.7
11.4
13.5
14.2
14.7
15.3
15.7
16.1
15.3
16.4
16.6
16.8
16.9
17.0
17.1
17.1
1.8
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
Electricity
11.1
14.9
18.2
19.8
21.7
23.6
25.6
27.5
19.6
21.4
22.4
23.5
24.9
26.3
27.8
29.2
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.7
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
3.3
4.4
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.9
6.4
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
1.4
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.6
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Australia (BAU)


353
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
636
881
1,355
1,561
1,782
2,016
2,260
2,510
3.1
2.9
2.6
2.2
2.5
Population (millions of people)
17
19
24
25
27
28
30
31
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.9
1.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 37.30 
 46.01 
 56.95 
 61.49 
 66.4 
 71.4 
 76.6 
 81.6 
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 5.06 
 5.38 
 5.27 
 4.94 
 4.66 
 4.40 
 4.14 
 3.90 
0.2
-1.3
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 136 
 117 
 92 
 80 
 70 
 62 
 54 
 48 
-1.5
-2.8
-2.6
-2.5
-2.6
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 89 
 79 
 60 
 54 
 47 
 42 
 38 
 34 
-1.6
-2.3
-2.4
-2.2
-2.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 110 
 95 
 73 
 61 
 52 
 44 
 37 
 32 
-1.6
-3.5
-3.2
-3.2
-3.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.81 
 0.81 
 0.79 
 0.76 
 0.74 
 0.72 
 0.69 
 0.67 
-0.1
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 10 
 12 
 17 
 19 
 20 
 22 
 23 
 24 
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.4
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.573 
 0.642 
 0.721 
 0.734 
 0.748 
 0.762 
 0.776 
 0.789 
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
86.4
103.1
125.3
125.5
125.0
124.1
122.3
119.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
Coal
35.1
43.1
42.9
38.8
35.9
33.2
30.2
27.2
40.7
41.8
34.2
30.9
28.7
26.7
24.7
22.7
0.8
-2.0
-1.6
-2.0
-1.8
Oil
31.2
34.2
41.9
41.8
40.7
39.1
37.2
35.2
36.1
33.1
33.4
33.3
32.6
31.5
30.4
29.4
1.2
0.0
-0.7
-1.0
-0.7
Natural gas
14.8
19.3
32.2
33.9
35.4
36.9
37.9
38.5
17.1
18.7
25.7
27.0
28.3
29.7
31.0
32.1
3.2
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.7
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
1.2
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.9
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
-0.2
5.8
0.0
0.0
1.1
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
112.6
3.0
1.1
18.2
Others
4.0
5.1
7.1
9.4
11.4
13.4
15.5
17.5
4.7
5.0
5.7
7.5
9.1
10.8
12.7
14.6
2.3
5.6
3.6
2.7
3.7
Biomass
4.0
4.9
4.6
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.6
4.7
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.1
0.6
1.2
0.2
-0.1
0.3
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.1
0.1
1.9
3.5
5.1
6.7
8.5
10.3
0.1
0.1
1.5
2.8
4.1
5.4
7.0
8.6
13.3
13.5
6.8
4.3
7.1
Biofuels
0.0
0.1
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.6
2.0
2.3
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.9
-
7.6
4.8
3.5
4.8
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
154.3
209.9
252.3
272.0
292.6
313.5
333.7
352.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.3
Coal
121.5
174.2
158.6
146.8
139.3
131.9
122.9
113.0
78.7
83.0
62.9
54.0
47.6
42.1
36.8
32.1
1.1
-1.5
-1.1
-1.5
-1.3
Oil
3.6
1.8
6.8
6.4
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.3
2.3
0.9
2.7
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
2.6
-1.3
-0.7
-1.1
-1.0
Natural gas
14.4
16.2
52.5
60.0
69.2
78.6
87.1
94.8
9.3
7.7
20.8
22.1
23.7
25.1
26.1
26.9
5.3
2.7
2.7
1.9
2.4
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
14.1
16.4
13.4
17.7
17.7
17.7
17.7
17.7
9.2
7.8
5.3
6.5
6.0
5.6
5.3
5.0
-0.2
5.8
0.0
0.0
1.1
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
112.6
3.0
1.1
18.2
Others
0.8
1.2
21.0
41.1
60.2
79.2
100.3
121.4
0.5
0.6
8.3
15.1
20.6
25.3
30.1
34.5
14.3
14.3
6.8
4.4
7.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
33.3
45.8
52.0
49.1
47.7
46.3
44.4
42.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.8
-1.2
-0.6
-0.9
-0.8
Coal
28.9
41.2
38.8
34.9
32.2
29.7
27.0
24.2
86.8
90.0
74.5
71.1
67.6
64.1
60.7
57.2
1.2
-2.1
-1.6
-2.0
-1.9
Oil
0.9
0.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
2.8
1.1
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
1.5
-1.3
-0.7
-1.1
-1.0
Natural gas
3.5
4.1
11.9
12.9
14.2
15.4
16.3
17.0
10.4
8.9
22.9
26.3
29.8
33.3
36.8
40.3
5.0
1.7
1.8
1.0
1.5
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
70.3
83.9
98.8
95.4
92.2
88.8
84.6
80.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.4
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
-0.8
Coal
37.9
46.6
46.3
41.9
38.8
35.8
32.6
29.3
54.0
55.5
46.9
44.0
42.1
40.4
38.6
36.7
0.8
-2.0
-1.6
-2.0
-1.8
Oil
23.2
25.2
32.3
32.3
31.3
29.9
28.3
26.6
33.0
30.0
32.7
33.8
33.9
33.7
33.4
33.3
1.3
-0.1
-0.8
-1.1
-0.8
Natural gas
9.2
12.1
20.1
21.2
22.1
23.0
23.6
24.0
13.1
14.5
20.4
22.2
24.0
25.9
28.0
30.0
3.2
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.7
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
36.0
36.1
36.0
37.4
38.7
40.2
41.7
43.3
0.0
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
Coal
36.1
36.4
35.2
36.2
37.2
38.2
39.2
40.2
-0.1
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
Oil
32.3
29.2
42.9
42.9
42.9
42.9
42.9
42.9
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
35.6
34.4
38.0
39.9
41.9
43.9
45.8
47.8
0.3
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
56.7
69.6
81.3
83.6
84.6
85.0
84.8
84.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.2
Industry
19.3
23.8
24.0
24.9
25.3
25.6
25.7
25.5
34.1
34.2
29.5
29.8
30.0
30.2
30.3
30.2
0.9
0.7
0.3
-0.1
0.2
Transportation
21.1
25.7
32.5
32.7
32.0
31.0
29.9
29.0
37.3
36.9
40.0
39.1
37.8
36.5
35.3
34.3
1.7
0.1
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
Others
12.3
15.7
20.7
21.8
23.0
24.0
24.9
25.6
21.7
22.6
25.5
26.1
27.2
28.3
29.4
30.3
2.1
1.1
1.0
0.6
0.9
Non-energy
4.0
4.4
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.4
7.0
6.4
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
Total
56.7
69.6
81.3
83.6
84.6
85.0
84.8
84.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.2
Coal
4.6
4.2
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.7
8.0
6.0
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.0
-2.6
-0.6
-1.2
-1.7
-1.3
Oil
29.0
34.7
42.6
42.6
41.6
39.9
38.1
36.2
51.2
49.9
52.4
51.0
49.1
47.0
44.9
42.8
1.5
0.0
-0.7
-1.0
-0.6
Natural gas
8.7
11.4
13.5
14.0
14.4
14.6
14.7
14.7
15.3
16.4
16.6
16.8
17.0
17.2
17.3
17.4
1.8
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.3
Electricity
11.1
14.9
18.2
19.6
21.2
22.8
24.4
25.9
19.6
21.4
22.4
23.5
25.0
26.8
28.7
30.6
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.4
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
3.3
4.4
4.7
5.0
5.4
5.6
5.9
6.0
5.9
6.4
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.6
6.9
7.2
1.4
1.4
1.1
0.7
1.0
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Australia (APS)


354
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
6.9
8.6
13.9
17.6
25.5
36.4
51.8
54.5
2.8
4.9
7.5
4.1
5.6
Population (millions of people)
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
1.3
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.3
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 23.0 
 28.7 
 33.3 
 38.09 
 49.3 
 62.7 
 79.7 
 74.9 
1.5
2.7
5.1
1.8
3.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 5.7 
 8.0 
 7.8 
 13.35 
 14.13 
 13.79 
 13.86 
 12.90 
1.3
11.3
0.3
-0.7
2.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 246 
 279 
 235 
 350 
 287 
 220 
 174 
 172 
-0.2
8.4
-4.5
-2.4
-1.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 52 
 65 
 58 
 179 
 143 
 111 
 89 
 88 
0.4
25.3
-4.6
-2.4
1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 130 
 163 
 480 
 535 
 427 
 346 
 291 
 293 
5.4
2.2
-4.3
-1.7
-2.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.5 
 0.6 
 2.0 
 1.53 
 1.49 
 1.57 
 1.67 
 1.70 
5.6
-5.7
0.3
0.8
-0.7
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.70
2.40
3.26
6.18
7.32
8.00
9.01
9.39
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
13.7
2.6
1.6
4.3
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
9.5
8.7
7.7
7.4
-
-
15.8
0.0
-
Oil
0.00
0.50
0.19
0.97
1.16
1.43
1.83
1.84
0.0
20.8
5.7
15.8
15.8
17.9
20.4
19.6
-
39.2
3.9
2.5
9.6
Natural gas
1.70
1.90
3.07
5.04
5.47
5.87
6.48
6.86
100.0
79.2
94.3
81.6
74.7
73.4
71.9
73.0
2.4
10.4
1.5
1.6
3.3
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Biomass
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
10.2
0.0
0.0
2.0
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.17
2.54
3.78
5.83
10.98
12.93
15.94
17.74
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.8
9.1
8.3
3.2
6.4
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.84
3.64
3.64
3.64
3.64
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.4
33.2
28.2
22.9
20.5
-
-
15.8
0.0
-
Oil
0.01
0.02
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.9
0.8
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
5.5
-5.9
-0.6
0.6
-1.2
Natural gas
1.16
2.52
3.74
4.96
7.31
9.26
12.26
14.06
99.1
99.2
99.0
85.1
66.6
71.6
77.0
79.3
4.8
5.8
6.4
4.3
5.4
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
10.2
0.0
0.0
2.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.46
0.87
1.23
1.68
2.63
3.01
3.59
3.96
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
6.5
6.0
2.8
4.8
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.5
26.5
23.1
19.4
17.6
-
-
15.8
0.0
-
Oil
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.0
1.1
0.9
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
-
-5.9
-0.6
0.6
-1.2
Natural gas
0.46
0.86
1.22
1.51
1.92
2.31
2.89
3.26
100.0
98.9
99.1
90.0
73.2
76.7
80.4
82.2
4.0
4.5
4.3
3.5
4.0
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.9
1.4
6.7
9.4
10.9
12.6
15.0
16.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.3
7.2
2.9
2.4
3.6
Coal
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.9
5.9
5.1
4.3
4.1
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
0.2
0.5
1.6
3.0
3.5
4.3
5.3
5.3
22.2
35.7
23.6
32.2
32.3
33.8
35.3
33.4
8.6
14.1
3.4
2.3
5.0
Natural gas
0.7
0.9
5.1
5.8
6.7
7.7
9.1
10.0
77.8
64.3
76.4
60.9
61.8
61.0
60.4
62.5
8.3
2.4
2.9
2.6
2.7
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
22
25
26
30
36
37
38
39
0.8
2.4
2.2
0.4
1.5
Coal
-
-
-
45
45
45
45
45
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
-
17
30
30
30
30
30
30
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
22
25
26
28
33
34
36
37
0.8
1.3
2.0
0.7
1.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.36
0.56
0.80
3.15
3.65
4.04
4.62
4.78
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.3
31.4
2.5
1.7
7.4
Industry
0.06
0.07
0.20
0.32
0.66
0.84
1.13
1.13
16.7
12.5
25.1
10.0
18.1
20.8
24.5
23.7
5.0
9.3
10.3
3.0
7.1
Transportation
0.19
0.26
0.31
0.76
0.82
0.89
0.96
0.96
52.8
46.4
38.2
24.2
22.5
21.9
20.7
20.1
1.9
19.9
1.5
0.8
4.7
Others
0.09
0.21
0.28
0.33
0.43
0.57
0.79
0.94
25.0
37.5
34.3
10.6
11.7
14.1
17.1
19.7
4.6
3.8
5.6
5.1
5.0
Non-energy
0.02
0.02
0.02
1.74
1.74
1.74
1.74
1.75
5.6
3.6
2.4
55.3
47.8
43.1
37.7
36.5
-0.2
146.8
0.0
0.0
19.8
Total
0.35
0.57
0.80
3.15
3.65
4.04
4.62
4.78
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
31.4
2.5
1.7
7.4
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Oil
0.26
0.36
0.52
1.00
1.16
1.40
1.74
1.75
74.3
63.2
64.5
31.7
31.7
34.5
37.6
36.5
2.8
14.0
3.4
2.3
5.0
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.03
1.74
1.75
1.75
1.76
1.77
0.0
0.0
3.6
55.4
48.0
43.4
38.1
37.0
-
127.3
0.1
0.1
17.9
Electricity
0.09
0.21
0.26
0.41
0.74
0.89
1.12
1.26
25.7
36.8
31.9
12.9
20.3
22.1
24.3
26.5
4.3
9.6
8.2
3.6
6.6
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Brunei Darussalam (BAU)


355
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
6.9
8.6
13.9
17.6
25.5
36.4
51.8
54.5
2.8
4.9
7.5
4.1
5.6
Population (millions of people)
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
1.3
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.3
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 23.0 
 28.7 
 33.3 
 38.09 
 49.3 
 62.7 
 79.7 
 74.9 
1.5
2.7
5.1
1.8
3.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 5.7 
 8.0 
 7.8 
 12.75 
 13.26 
 12.22 
 11.12 
 10.49 
1.3
10.3
-0.4
-1.5
1.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 246 
 279 
 235 
 335 
 269 
 195 
 140 
 140 
-0.2
7.4
-5.3
-3.3
-2.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 52 
 65 
 58 
 174 
 134 
 97 
 72 
 71 
0.4
24.6
-5.6
-3.1
0.8
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 130 
 163 
 480 
 497 
 382 
 282 
 204 
 211 
5.4
0.7
-5.5
-2.8
-3.2
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.5 
 0.6 
 2.0 
 1.49 
 1.42 
 1.44 
 1.46 
 1.51 
5.6
-6.2
-0.3
0.4
-1.2
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.70
2.40
3.26
5.90
6.87
7.09
7.23
7.63
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
12.6
1.9
0.7
3.5
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.7
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
0.0
0.5
0.19
0.93
0.99
1.06
1.25
1.25
0.0
20.8
5.7
15.7
14.4
15.0
17.3
16.4
-
37.8
1.4
1.7
7.9
Natural gas
1.7
1.9
3.07
4.81
5.73
5.87
5.82
6.22
100.0
79.2
94.3
81.6
83.3
82.8
80.5
81.5
2.4
9.4
2.0
0.6
2.9
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Biomass
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.02
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.07
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.6
1.0
1.0
-
194.7
8.8
5.1
30.9
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.17
2.54
3.78
5.37
10.28
11.10
11.28
13.08
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.8
7.3
7.5
1.7
5.1
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.7
8.2
7.6
7.5
6.4
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.9
0.8
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
5.5
-10.6
0.8
0.2
-1.8
Natural gas
1.2
2.5
3.74
4.29
9.07
9.71
9.57
11.36
99.1
99.2
99.0
79.8
88.2
87.5
84.8
86.8
4.8
2.8
8.5
1.6
4.5
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.22
0.35
0.52
0.85
0.86
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.2
3.4
4.7
7.5
6.6
-
193.6
8.7
5.2
30.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.46
0.87
1.23
1.46
2.36
2.49
2.43
2.81
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
3.5
5.5
1.2
3.4
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.0
6.8
6.5
6.6
5.7
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.0
1.1
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
-
-10.6
0.8
0.2
-1.8
Natural gas
0.5
0.9
1.22
1.29
2.19
2.32
2.26
2.64
100.0
98.9
99.1
88.5
92.9
93.3
93.1
94.0
4.0
1.2
6.0
1.3
3.1
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.9
1.4
6.7
8.8
9.8
10.2
10.6
11.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.3
5.6
1.6
1.2
2.2
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.4
6.6
6.3
6.1
5.6
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
0.2
0.5
1.6
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.6
3.6
22.2
35.7
23.6
33.1
31.0
31.0
34.4
31.7
8.6
13.0
0.9
1.4
3.4
Natural gas
0.7
0.9
5.1
5.2
6.1
6.4
6.3
7.2
77.8
64.3
76.4
59.5
62.4
62.6
59.5
62.7
8.3
0.5
2.1
1.2
1.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
21.9
25.1
26.5
30.4
36.3
36.6
37.0
37.4
0.8
2.8
1.9
0.2
1.4
Coal
-
-
-
45.0
45.0
45.0
45.0
45.0
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
-
17.2
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
21.7
25.2
26.4
28.6
35.6
36.0
36.4
37.0
0.8
1.6
2.3
0.3
1.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.36
0.56
0.80
3.06
3.42
3.54
3.71
3.86
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.3
30.7
1.5
0.9
6.5
Industry
0.1
0.1
0.20
0.29
0.63
0.76
0.94
0.94
16.7
12.5
25.1
9.5
18.3
21.6
25.3
24.3
5.0
7.7
10.1
2.1
6.3
Transportation
0.2
0.3
0.31
0.74
0.69
0.61
0.60
0.60
52.8
46.4
38.2
24.2
20.2
17.3
16.3
15.7
1.9
19.3
-1.9
-0.2
2.7
Others
0.1
0.2
0.28
0.29
0.36
0.42
0.42
0.57
25.0
37.5
34.3
9.4
10.6
11.9
11.3
14.8
4.6
0.9
3.8
3.1
3.0
Non-energy
0.0
0.0
0.02
1.74
1.74
1.74
1.74
1.74
5.6
3.6
2.4
56.8
50.9
49.2
47.0
45.2
-0.2
146.8
0.0
0.0
19.8
Total
0.35
0.57
0.80
3.06
3.42
3.54
3.71
3.86
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
30.7
1.5
0.9
6.5
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Oil
0.3
0.4
0.52
0.96
1.00
1.04
1.19
1.20
74.3
63.2
64.5
31.2
29.1
29.5
32.1
31.0
2.8
13.0
0.9
1.4
3.4
Natural gas
0.0
0.0
0.03
1.74
1.75
1.75
1.76
1.77
0.0
0.0
3.6
57.0
51.1
49.6
47.5
45.8
-
127.3
0.1
0.1
17.9
Electricity
0.1
0.2
0.26
0.36
0.68
0.74
0.75
0.89
25.7
36.8
31.9
11.8
19.8
20.9
20.4
23.2
4.3
7.2
7.4
1.9
5.1
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Brunei Darussalam (APS )


356
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
4
5
15.9
20.8
27.2
35.5
46.4
60.6
7.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
Population (millions of people)
9
12
15.5
16.7
18.0
19.4
20.9
22.5
2.8
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.4 
 0.4 
 1.0 
 1.24 
 1.5 
 1.8 
 2.2 
 2.7 
4.7
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 0.5 
 0.53 
 0.55 
 0.58 
 0.62 
 0.68 
1.8
3.4
0.8
1.6
1.6
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 775 
 657 
 442 
 430 
 364 
 316 
 277 
 251 
-2.8
-0.6
-3.0
-2.3
-2.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 695 
 567 
 373 
 354 
 302 
 257 
 221 
 194 
-3.1
-1.0
-3.1
-2.8
-2.6
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 108 
 96 
 127 
 158 
 143 
 135 
 127 
 125 
0.8
4.4
-1.6
-0.7
-0.1
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.1 
 0.1 
 0.3 
 0.37 
 0.39 
 0.43 
 0.46 
 0.50 
3.7
5.0
1.5
1.6
2.2
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.84
3.42
7.04
8.94
9.90
11.24
12.86
15.24
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.7
4.9
2.3
3.1
3.1
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.59
1.23
1.44
1.66
2.24
2.97
0.0
0.0
8.3
13.7
14.5
14.8
17.4
19.5
-
16.0
3.0
6.0
6.7
Oil
0.51
0.70
1.93
2.65
3.17
3.64
4.14
4.75
18.0
20.5
27.4
29.7
32.0
32.4
32.2
31.2
5.4
6.6
3.2
2.7
3.7
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.43
0.56
1.25
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.9
4.4
8.2
-
-
-
11.2
-
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.17
0.49
0.67
0.82
1.12
1.51
0.0
0.0
2.4
5.5
6.8
7.3
8.7
9.9
-
23.5
5.2
6.2
9.1
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
2.33
2.72
4.35
4.57
4.62
4.69
4.80
4.76
82.0
79.5
61.8
51.1
46.7
41.7
37.3
31.2
2.5
1.0
0.3
0.2
0.4
Biomass
2.33
2.72
4.22
4.41
4.46
4.53
4.62
4.57
82.0
79.5
60.0
49.3
45.1
40.3
35.9
30.0
2.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.3
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
-
33.7
-5.0
46.5
21.0
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.0
0.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
-
3.6
0.0
0.0
0.7
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.20
0.45
4.40
10.61
14.03
19.05
26.57
38.20
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
13.2
19.3
6.0
7.2
9.0
Coal
0.00
0.00
2.13
4.52
5.95
6.87
9.82
13.04
0.0
0.0
48.4
42.6
42.4
36.1
37.0
34.1
-
16.3
4.3
6.6
7.5
Oil
0.20
0.45
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.0
100.0
5.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.42
3.15
7.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.7
11.8
18.3
-
-
-
11.2
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
2.00
5.74
7.83
9.55
13.05
17.51
0.0
0.0
45.5
54.1
55.8
50.1
49.1
45.8
-
23.5
5.2
6.2
9.1
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.34
0.26
0.21
0.56
0.65
0.0
0.0
0.9
3.2
1.8
1.1
2.1
1.7
-
53.1
-5.0
12.2
11.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.10
0.09
0.63
1.22
1.42
2.08
2.79
4.20
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
13.9
5.5
7.3
7.9
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.57
1.22
1.42
1.64
2.22
2.95
0.0
0.0
90.5
100.0
100.0
79.1
79.8
70.2
-
16.2
3.1
6.0
6.8
Oil
0.10
0.09
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.0
100.0
9.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.43
0.56
1.25
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
20.9
20.2
29.8
-
-
-
11.2
-
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.40
0.50
2.02
3.27
3.90
4.78
5.89
7.60
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.7
10.1
3.9
4.7
5.4
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.63
1.33
1.56
1.80
2.44
3.24
0.0
0.0
31.2
40.8
40.0
37.7
41.5
42.7
-
16.2
3.1
6.0
6.8
Oil
0.40
0.50
1.39
1.94
2.34
2.70
3.08
3.55
100.0
100.0
68.8
59.2
60.0
56.5
52.4
46.8
5.1
6.9
3.4
2.8
3.8
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.28
0.36
0.80
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.8
6.1
10.6
-
-
-
11.2
-
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
17.2
43.0
31.9
32.0
36.0
38.5
40.0
41.0
2.5
0.0
1.9
0.6
1.0
Coal
-
-
31.9
32.0
36.0
36.0
38.0
38.0
-
0.1
1.2
0.5
0.7
Oil
17.2
43.0
32.5
-
-
-
-
-
2.6
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
-
-
-
-
-
48.0
48.0
48.0
-
-
-
0.0
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.543
2.950
5.925
7.350
8.196
9.123
10.272
11.770
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
4.4
2.2
2.6
2.8
Industry
0.44
0.61
1.03
1.14
1.25
1.45
1.80
2.41
17.2
20.7
17.4
15.5
15.3
15.9
17.5
20.5
3.5
2.0
2.5
5.2
3.5
Transportation
0.38
0.43
1.39
1.91
2.29
2.66
3.08
3.59
15.0
14.6
23.5
26.0
27.9
29.2
29.9
30.5
5.3
6.5
3.4
3.0
3.9
Others
1.72
1.90
3.45
4.25
4.59
4.94
5.32
5.67
67.5
64.4
58.3
57.8
56.1
54.2
51.8
48.1
2.8
4.2
1.5
1.4
2.0
Non-energy
0.01
0.01
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.10
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
7.8
3.3
2.3
4.0
3.2
Total
2.54
2.95
5.93
7.35
8.20
9.12
10.27
11.77
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
4.4
2.2
2.6
2.8
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Oil
0.44
0.54
1.87
2.65
3.17
3.64
4.14
4.75
17.3
18.1
31.5
36.1
38.6
39.9
40.3
40.3
6.0
7.3
3.2
2.7
3.8
Natural gas
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.01
0.03
0.43
1.01
1.29
1.70
2.30
3.24
0.4
1.0
7.2
13.8
15.7
18.6
22.4
27.6
15.8
18.8
5.3
6.7
8.4
Heat
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
2.09
2.39
3.62
3.67
3.72
3.77
3.81
3.76
82.3
80.8
61.1
50.0
45.4
41.3
37.1
31.9
2.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.2
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Cambodia (BAU)


357
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
3.7
5.2
15.9
20.8
27.2
35.5
46.4
60.6
7.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
Population (millions of people)
9.0
12.2
15.5
16.7
18.0
19.4
20.9
22.5
2.8
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.4 
 0.4 
 1.0 
 1.24 
 1.5 
 1.8 
 2.2 
 2.7 
4.7
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 0.5 
 0.51 
 0.53 
 0.52 
 0.51 
 0.58 
1.8
2.4
0.2
1.1
1.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 775 
 657 
 442 
 411 
 352 
 284 
 232 
 215 
-2.8
-1.5
-3.6
-2.7
-2.8
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 695 
 567 
 373 
 340 
 279 
 228 
 188 
 165 
-3.1
-1.8
-3.9
-3.2
-3.2
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 108 
 96 
 127 
 142 
 132 
 105 
 84 
 82 
0.8
2.2
-3.0
-2.4
-1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.1 
 0.1 
 0.3 
 0.35 
 0.38 
 0.37 
 0.36 
 0.38 
3.7
3.7
0.7
0.3
1.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.84
3.42
7.04
8.54
9.55
10.08
10.76
13.04
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.7
4.0
1.7
2.6
2.5
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.59
0.88
1.22
1.14
1.10
2.49
0.0
0.0
8.3
10.3
12.7
11.3
10.2
19.1
-
8.6
2.6
8.1
5.9
Oil
0.51
0.70
1.93
2.55
3.23
3.54
3.83
4.35
18.0
20.5
27.4
29.9
33.9
35.1
35.6
33.4
5.4
5.8
3.3
2.1
3.3
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.17
0.14
0.15
0.19
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.4
-
-
-3.2
2.8
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.17
0.35
0.31
0.53
0.83
0.93
0.0
0.0
2.4
4.1
3.3
5.3
7.7
7.1
-
15.5
4.2
5.7
7.0
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
2.33
2.72
4.35
4.55
4.62
4.73
4.86
5.09
82.0
79.5
61.8
53.3
48.3
46.9
45.1
39.0
2.5
0.9
0.4
0.7
0.6
Biomass
2.33
2.72
4.22
4.30
4.24
4.23
4.23
4.32
82.0
79.5
60.0
50.3
44.4
42.0
39.3
33.1
2.4
0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.1
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.09
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
-
107.2
17.3
6.7
26.6
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.24
0.34
0.45
0.56
0.68
0.0
0.0
1.9
2.9
3.5
4.5
5.2
5.2
-
13.3
6.3
4.1
6.8
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.20
0.45
4.40
9.05
10.58
13.04
17.24
25.73
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
13.2
15.5
3.7
7.0
7.3
Coal
0.00
0.00
2.13
3.24
5.03
4.70
4.86
11.29
0.0
0.0
48.4
35.8
47.5
36.1
28.2
43.9
-
8.8
3.8
9.2
6.9
Oil
0.20
0.45
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.0
100.0
5.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.10
0.97
0.79
0.82
1.04
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.2
9.2
6.1
4.8
4.1
-
-
-3.2
2.8
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
2.00
4.11
3.61
6.19
9.69
10.79
0.0
0.0
45.5
45.4
34.2
47.4
56.2
41.9
-
15.5
4.2
5.7
7.0
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.60
0.97
1.36
1.87
2.61
0.0
0.0
0.9
6.6
9.2
10.4
10.9
10.1
-
70.8
8.6
6.7
18.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.10
0.09
0.63
1.07
1.37
1.27
1.22
2.65
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
11.0
1.7
7.7
5.9
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.57
0.87
1.20
1.12
1.08
2.47
0.0
0.0
90.5
81.5
87.4
88.8
88.0
93.0
-
8.7
2.6
8.2
6.0
Oil
0.10
0.09
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.0
100.0
9.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
-
-
0.00
0.20
0.17
0.14
0.15
0.19
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.5
12.6
11.2
12.0
7.0
-
-
-3.2
2.8
-
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.4
0.5
2.0
2.9
3.6
3.7
3.9
5.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.7
7.8
2.3
2.9
3.7
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.63
0.96
1.32
1.23
1.18
1.83
0.0
0.0
31.2
32.4
36.7
33.2
30.4
36.9
-
8.7
2.6
4.0
4.4
Oil
0.4
0.5
1.39
1.87
2.16
2.39
2.62
3.02
100.0
100.0
68.8
63.3
60.2
64.4
67.2
60.7
5.1
6.0
2.5
2.3
3.1
Natural gas
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.13
0.11
0.09
0.09
0.12
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
3.1
2.4
2.4
2.4
-
-
-3.2
2.8
-
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
17.2
43.0
31.9
35.0
37.5
37.4
39.9
40.0
2.5
1.8
0.7
0.7
0.9
Coal
-
-
31.9
32.0
36.0
36.0
38.8
39.4
-
0.1
1.2
0.9
0.8
Oil
17.2
43.0
32.5
-
-
-
-
-
2.6
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
-
-
-
48.0
48.0
48.0
48.0
48.0
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.54
2.95
5.93
7.08
7.59
8.11
8.75
10.02
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
3.6
1.4
2.1
2.1
Industry
0.44
0.61
1.03
1.10
1.16
1.29
1.53
2.05
17.2
20.7
17.4
15.5
15.3
15.9
17.5
20.5
3.5
1.2
1.6
4.8
2.8
Transportation
0.38
0.43
1.39
1.84
2.12
2.36
2.61
3.05
15.0
14.6
23.5
26.0
27.9
29.2
29.9
30.4
5.3
5.7
2.5
2.6
3.2
Others
1.72
1.90
3.45
4.09
4.25
4.39
4.52
4.82
67.5
64.4
58.3
57.7
56.0
54.1
51.7
48.1
2.8
3.4
0.7
0.9
1.3
Non-energy
0.01
0.01
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.10
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
7.8
3.3
2.3
4.0
3.2
Total
2.54
2.95
5.93
7.08
7.59
8.11
8.75
10.02
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
3.6
1.4
2.1
2.1
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Oil
0.44
0.54
1.87
2.55
2.93
3.24
3.53
4.05
17.3
18.1
31.5
36.1
38.7
39.9
40.3
40.4
6.0
6.5
2.4
2.3
3.1
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.01
0.03
0.43
0.98
1.19
1.51
1.96
2.76
0.4
1.0
7.2
13.8
15.7
18.6
22.4
27.5
15.8
17.9
4.4
6.2
7.7
Heat
0.00
0.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
2.09
2.39
3.62
3.53
3.44
3.35
3.24
3.19
82.3
80.8
61.1
49.9
45.4
41.3
37.1
31.9
2.2
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Cambodia (APS)


358
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
830
2,237
8,910
12,206
16,005
20,546
25,701
31,116
10.0
6.5
5.3
4.2
5.1
Population (millions of people)
1,135
1,263
1,371
1,398
1,412
1,415
1,407
1,391
0.8
0.4
0.1
-0.2
0.1
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.73 
 1.77 
 6.50 
 8.73 
 11.3 
 14.5 
 18.3 
 22.4 
9.1
6.1
5.2
4.4
5.1
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.77 
 0.89 
 2.17 
 2.36 
 2.50 
 2.64 
 2.77 
 2.89 
4.2
1.7
1.1
0.9
1.1
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,050 
 505 
 334 
 270 
 220 
 182 
 152 
 129 
-4.5
-4.2
-3.9
-3.4
-3.7
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 789 
 349 
 214 
 175 
 143 
 118 
 98 
 84 
-5.1
-4.0
-3.9
-3.4
-3.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 769 
 386 
 286 
 221 
 175 
 140 
 114 
 94 
-3.9
-5.0
-4.5
-3.9
-4.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.73 
 0.76 
 0.86 
 0.82 
 0.80 
 0.77 
 0.75 
 0.73 
0.6
-0.9
-0.6
-0.5
-0.6
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 5 
 16 
 163 
 250 
 312 
 366 
 405 
 438 
14.7
8.9
3.9
1.8
4.0
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.005 
 0.012 
 0.119 
 0.179 
 0.221 
 0.258 
 0.288 
 0.315 
13.8
8.5
3.8
2.0
4.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
870.7
1,129.8 2,973.3 3,293.5 3,525.8 3,734.5 3,899.2 4,014.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
2.1
1.3
0.7
1.2
Coal
527.6
664.7
1,982.0 2,005.6 2,013.0 2,006.6
1,992.1
1,938.6
60.6
58.8
66.7
60.9
57.1
53.7
51.1
48.3
5.4
0.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
Oil
118.8
220.8
533.7
652.6
729.2
788.9
825.5
853.4
13.6
19.5
18.0
19.8
20.7
21.1
21.2
21.3
6.2
4.1
1.9
0.8
1.9
Natural gas
12.8
20.8
158.5
236.2
313.1
392.7
475.2
556.5
1.5
1.8
5.3
7.2
8.9
10.5
12.2
13.9
10.6
8.3
5.2
3.5
5.2
Nuclear
0.0
4.4
44.5
106.2
151.9
197.5
224.9
252.3
0.0
0.4
1.5
3.2
4.3
5.3
5.8
6.3
-
19.0
6.4
2.5
7.2
Hydro
10.9
19.1
95.8
107.9
113.5
118.5
123.0
125.6
1.3
1.7
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
9.1
2.4
0.9
0.6
1.1
Geothermal
0.0
1.7
5.1
6.0
6.6
7.3
8.0
8.6
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-
3.3
2.1
1.6
2.1
Others
200.6
198.4
153.6
179.0
198.5
222.9
250.5
280.0
23.0
17.6
5.2
5.4
5.6
6.0
6.4
7.0
-1.1
3.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Biomass
200.4
197.0
104.0
101.3
93.7
90.2
93.6
98.9
23.0
17.4
3.5
3.1
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.5
-2.6
-0.5
-1.2
0.9
-0.2
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
1.0
41.2
66.9
92.2
118.0
139.6
161.1
0.0
0.1
1.4
2.0
2.6
3.2
3.6
4.0
33.0
10.2
5.8
3.2
5.6
Biofuels
0.0
1.1
9.5
11.7
13.6
15.8
18.2
21.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
-
4.3
3.0
2.9
3.2
Electricity
0.2
-0.7
-1.1
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-207.9
-1.7
0.0
0.0
-0.3
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
621.3
1,355.7 5,844.2 6,890.9 7,781.0 8,638.0 9,427.9 10,054.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.4
3.4
2.3
1.5
2.2
Coal
441.3
1,060.4 4,109.0 4,345.4
4,540.1 4,690.2 4,858.6 4,889.0
71.0
78.2
70.3
63.1
58.3
54.3
51.5
48.6
9.3
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.7
Oil
50.4
47.3
9.7
9.6
9.3
8.8
8.2
7.2
8.1
3.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-6.4
-0.2
-0.9
-1.9
-1.1
Natural gas
2.8
5.8
145.3
302.9
482.9
682.9
912.1
1,139.3
0.4
0.4
2.5
4.4
6.2
7.9
9.7
11.3
17.2
15.8
8.5
5.3
8.6
Nuclear
0.0
16.7
170.8
407.5
582.7
758.0
863.2
968.3
0.0
1.2
2.9
5.9
7.5
8.8
9.2
9.6
-
19.0
6.4
2.5
7.2
Hydro
126.7
222.4
1,114.5
1,254.3
1,320.3
1,378.0
1,430.7
1,460.2
20.4
16.4
19.1
18.2
17.0
16.0
15.2
14.5
9.1
2.4
0.9
0.6
1.1
Geothermal
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
14.3
4.5
1.4
5.1
Others
0.0
3.1
294.8
571.1
845.4
1,119.7
1,354.8
1,590.0
0.0
0.2
5.0
8.3
10.9
13.0
14.4
15.8
50.4
14.1
7.0
3.6
7.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
144.7
297.2
948.5
1,000.1 1,061.7
1,116.2
1,178.9
1,211.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.8
1.1
1.1
0.8
1.0
Coal
131.7
284.3
920.1
943.7
973.7
993.5
1,016.6
1,010.7
91.0
95.7
97.0
94.4
91.7
89.0
86.2
83.4
8.1
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.4
Oil
12.4
11.6
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.8
8.5
3.9
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
-6.4
-0.2
-0.9
-1.9
-1.1
Natural gas
0.6
1.3
26.1
54.0
85.7
120.6
160.3
199.2
0.4
0.4
2.7
5.4
8.1
10.8
13.6
16.4
16.2
15.7
8.4
5.1
8.5
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
637.8
862.8
2,545.4 2,699.1 2,803.8 2,879.4 2,931.4 2,930.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.6
Coal
549.0
700.9
2,080.5 2,094.7 2,092.8 2,075.8
2,051.3
1,984.0
86.1
81.2
81.7
77.6
74.6
72.1
70.0
67.7
5.5
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
-0.2
Oil
83.5
151.7
369.7
459.9
517.5
559.5
583.5
598.7
13.1
17.6
14.5
17.0
18.5
19.4
19.9
20.4
6.1
4.5
2.0
0.7
1.9
Natural gas
5.3
10.2
95.2
144.5
193.5
244.1
296.7
348.2
0.8
1.2
3.7
5.4
6.9
8.5
10.1
11.9
12.3
8.7
5.4
3.6
5.3
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
29.4
32.2
38.7
40.1
40.8
41.5
42.2
42.8
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.4
Coal
28.8
32.1
38.4
39.6
40.1
40.6
41.1
41.6
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.3
Oil
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
39.0
39.0
47.9
48.2
48.4
48.7
48.9
49.2
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
654.3
781.2
1,905.7 2,133.7 2,286.6 2,421.5 2,524.1 2,602.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
2.3
1.3
0.7
1.3
Industry
233.9
299.0
966.1
1,001.9
1,016.9
1,026.8
1,027.1
1,016.6
35.7
38.3
50.7
47.0
44.5
42.4
40.7
39.1
5.8
0.7
0.2
-0.1
0.2
Transportation
33.5
87.3
298.6
403.4
473.0
524.1
556.6
581.1
5.1
11.2
15.7
18.9
20.7
21.6
22.1
22.3
9.2
6.2
2.7
1.0
2.7
Others
344.1
334.7
483.2
548.2
599.2
653.5
706.7
751.2
52.6
42.8
25.4
25.7
26.2
27.0
28.0
28.9
1.4
2.6
1.8
1.4
1.8
Non-energy
42.9
60.2
157.7
180.2
197.5
217.1
233.7
253.0
6.6
7.7
8.3
8.4
8.6
9.0
9.3
9.7
5.3
2.7
1.9
1.5
1.9
Total
654.3
781.2
1,905.7 2,133.7 2,286.6 2,421.5 2,524.1 2,602.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
2.3
1.3
0.7
1.3
Coal
308.2
274.5
700.8
697.6
678.3
656.7
625.9
588.0
47.1
35.1
36.8
32.7
29.7
27.1
24.8
22.6
3.3
-0.1
-0.6
-1.1
-0.7
Oil
84.6
180.4
480.4
592.1
667.6
723.8
759.0
786.6
12.9
23.1
25.2
27.8
29.2
29.9
30.1
30.2
7.2
4.3
2.0
0.8
2.0
Natural gas
8.9
12.4
105.4
144.0
178.6
212.7
245.2
277.2
1.4
1.6
5.5
6.7
7.8
8.8
9.7
10.7
10.4
6.4
4.0
2.7
3.9
Electricity
39.0
89.1
419.4
495.4
561.1
625.8
687.1
737.6
6.0
11.4
22.0
23.2
24.5
25.8
27.2
28.3
10.0
3.4
2.4
1.7
2.3
Heat
13.2
25.5
83.3
90.4
95.9
101.4
106.2
110.0
2.0
3.3
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
7.6
1.7
1.2
0.8
1.1
Others
200.4
199.3
116.4
114.2
105.0
101.0
100.6
102.5
30.6
25.5
6.1
5.4
4.6
4.2
4.0
3.9
-2.2
-0.4
-1.2
0.1
-0.5
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
China (BAU)


359
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
830
2,237
8,910
12,206
16,005
20,546
25,701
31,116
10.0
6.5
5.3
4.2
5.1
Population (millions of people)
1,135
1,263
1,371
1,398
1,412
1,415
1,407
1,391
0.8
0.4
0.1
-0.2
0.1
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.73 
 1.77 
 6.50 
 8.73 
 11.3 
 14.5 
 18.3 
 22.4 
9.1
6.1
5.2
4.4
5.1
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.77 
 0.89 
 2.17 
 2.31 
 2.38 
 2.44 
 2.48 
 2.51 
4.2
1.3
0.5
0.3
0.6
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,050 
 505 
 334 
 265 
 210 
 168 
 136 
 112 
-4.5
-4.5
-4.4
-3.9
-4.3
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 789 
 349 
 214 
 172 
 138 
 111 
 90 
 75 
-5.1
-4.3
-4.3
-3.8
-4.1
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 769 
 386 
 286 
 216 
 163 
 124 
 95 
 74 
-3.9
-5.5
-5.4
-5.1
-5.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.73 
 0.76 
 0.86 
 0.81 
 0.78 
 0.74 
 0.70 
 0.66 
0.6
-1.0
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 5 
 16 
 163 
 250 
 312 
 366 
 405 
 438 
14.7
8.9
3.9
1.8
4.0
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.005 
 0.012 
 0.119 
 0.179 
 0.221 
 0.258 
 0.288 
 0.315 
13.8
8.5
3.8
2.0
4.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
870.7
1,129.8 2,973.3 3,232.7 3,357.4 3,452.5 3,494.6 3,494.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
1.7
0.7
0.1
0.6
Coal
527.6
664.7
1,982.0
1,952.8
1,865.0
1,771.8
1,650.6
1,503.0
60.6
58.8
66.7
60.4
55.5
51.3
47.2
43.0
5.4
-0.3
-1.0
-1.6
-1.1
Oil
118.8
220.8
533.7
649.5
708.4
742.6
751.4
752.1
13.6
19.5
18.0
20.1
21.1
21.5
21.5
21.5
6.2
4.0
1.3
0.1
1.4
Natural gas
12.8
20.8
158.5
228.6
289.7
346.4
395.1
435.0
1.5
1.8
5.3
7.1
8.6
10.0
11.3
12.4
10.6
7.6
4.2
2.3
4.1
Nuclear
0.0
4.4
44.5
106.2
170.1
234.1
298.0
362.0
0.0
0.4
1.5
3.3
5.1
6.8
8.5
10.4
-
19.0
8.2
4.5
8.7
Hydro
10.9
19.1
95.8
108.4
115.2
121.6
127.6
131.7
1.3
1.7
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.8
9.1
2.5
1.1
0.8
1.3
Geothermal
0.0
1.7
5.1
6.2
6.5
7.5
8.3
9.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
-
4.2
1.8
2.0
2.4
Others
200.6
198.4
153.6
181.1
202.5
228.7
263.6
302.2
23.0
17.6
5.2
5.6
6.0
6.6
7.5
8.6
-1.1
3.3
2.4
2.8
2.7
Biomass
200.4
197.0
104.0
98.9
89.4
83.8
85.5
90.0
23.0
17.4
3.5
3.1
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.6
-2.6
-1.0
-1.6
0.7
-0.6
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
1.0
41.2
70.0
98.2
126.4
155.0
183.1
0.0
0.1
1.4
2.2
2.9
3.7
4.4
5.2
33.0
11.2
6.1
3.8
6.2
Biofuels
0.0
1.1
9.5
13.1
15.9
19.5
24.1
30.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
-
6.7
4.1
4.4
4.7
Electricity
0.2
-0.7
-1.1
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-207.9
-1.7
0.0
0.0
-0.3
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
621.3
1,355.7 5,844.2 6,766.3 7,461.5 8,121.6 8,704.3
9,129.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.4
3.0
1.8
1.2
1.8
Coal
441.3
1,060.4 4,109.0
4,167.4
4,077.7
3,958.8 3,764.6 3,465.5
71.0
78.2
70.3
61.6
54.6
48.7
43.2
38.0
9.3
0.3
-0.5
-1.3
-0.7
Oil
50.4
47.3
9.7
9.2
8.3
7.4
6.3
5.1
8.1
3.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-6.4
-1.0
-2.1
-3.6
-2.5
Natural gas
2.8
5.8
145.3
290.5
433.7
576.4
706.7
807.6
0.4
0.4
2.5
4.3
5.8
7.1
8.1
8.8
17.2
14.9
7.1
3.4
7.1
Nuclear
0.0
16.7
170.8
407.5
652.8
898.2
1,143.6
1,388.9
0.0
1.2
2.9
6.0
8.7
11.1
13.1
15.2
-
19.0
8.2
4.5
8.7
Hydro
126.7
222.4
1,114.5
1,260.9
1,339.6
1,413.5
1,483.9
1,531.2
20.4
16.4
19.1
18.6
18.0
17.4
17.0
16.8
9.1
2.5
1.1
0.8
1.3
Geothermal
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
19.1
4.8
2.6
6.6
Others
0.0
3.1
294.8
630.6
948.9
1,266.7
1,598.7
1,930.6
0.0
0.2
5.0
9.3
12.7
15.6
18.4
21.1
50.4
16.4
7.2
4.3
7.8
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
144.7
297.2
948.5
964.4
948.1
926.6
889.0
827.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.8
0.3
-0.4
-1.1
-0.5
Coal
131.7
284.3
920.1
910.9
870.5
825.9
767.9
691.5
91.0
95.7
97.0
94.4
91.8
89.1
86.4
83.6
8.1
-0.2
-1.0
-1.8
-1.1
Oil
12.4
11.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.2
8.5
3.9
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
-6.4
-1.3
-2.4
-3.8
-2.7
Natural gas
0.6
1.3
26.1
51.3
75.6
99.0
119.7
134.9
0.4
0.4
2.7
5.3
8.0
10.7
13.5
16.3
16.2
14.5
6.8
3.1
6.8
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
637.8
862.8
2,545.4 2,634.5 2,611.5
2,557.3 2,449.2 2,297.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
0.7
-0.3
-1.1
-0.4
Coal
549.0
700.9
2,080.5 2,037.6
1,933.0
1,822.2
1,682.4
1,513.6
86.1
81.2
81.7
77.3
74.0
71.3
68.7
65.9
5.5
-0.4
-1.1
-1.8
-1.3
Oil
83.5
151.7
369.7
457.3
500.0
520.7
521.5
513.9
13.1
17.6
14.5
17.4
19.1
20.4
21.3
22.4
6.1
4.3
1.3
-0.1
1.3
Natural gas
5.3
10.2
95.2
139.6
178.5
214.4
245.3
270.4
0.8
1.2
3.7
5.3
6.8
8.4
10.0
11.8
12.3
7.9
4.4
2.3
4.3
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
29.4
32.2
38.7
39.8
41.0
42.2
43.3
44.5
1.1
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
Coal
28.8
32.1
38.4
39.3
40.3
41.2
42.2
43.1
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
Oil
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.4
35.8
36.2
36.6
37.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Natural gas
39.0
39.0
47.9
48.7
49.4
50.1
50.8
51.5
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
654.3
781.2
1,905.7 2,097.3 2,201.3 2,278.4 2,318.8 2,334.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
1.9
0.8
0.2
0.8
Industry
233.9
299.0
966.1
977.9
970.2
959.4
938.7
906.0
35.7
38.3
50.7
46.6
44.1
42.1
40.5
38.8
5.8
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
-0.3
Transportation
33.5
87.3
298.6
398.3
455.8
488.2
501.5
509.6
5.1
11.2
15.7
19.0
20.7
21.4
21.6
21.8
9.2
5.9
2.1
0.4
2.2
Others
344.1
334.7
483.2
541.0
577.8
613.6
645.0
666.2
52.6
42.8
25.4
25.8
26.2
26.9
27.8
28.5
1.4
2.3
1.3
0.8
1.3
Non-energy
42.9
60.2
157.7
180.2
197.5
217.1
233.7
253.0
6.6
7.7
8.3
8.6
9.0
9.5
10.1
10.8
5.3
2.7
1.9
1.5
1.9
Total
654.3
781.2
1,905.7 2,097.3 2,201.3 2,278.4 2,318.8 2,334.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
1.9
0.8
0.2
0.8
Coal
308.2
274.5
700.8
687.2
660.0
631.2
593.1
548.0
47.1
35.1
36.8
32.8
30.0
27.7
25.6
23.5
3.3
-0.4
-0.8
-1.4
-1.0
Oil
84.6
180.4
480.4
589.4
648.7
681.5
691.3
693.6
12.9
23.1
25.2
28.1
29.5
29.9
29.8
29.7
7.2
4.2
1.5
0.2
1.5
Natural gas
8.9
12.4
105.4
140.2
169.1
195.0
217.4
237.5
1.4
1.6
5.5
6.7
7.7
8.6
9.4
10.2
10.4
5.9
3.4
2.0
3.3
Electricity
39.0
89.1
419.4
486.4
538.1
588.4
634.3
669.8
6.0
11.4
22.0
23.2
24.4
25.8
27.4
28.7
10.0
3.0
1.9
1.3
1.9
Heat
13.2
25.5
83.3
88.0
91.4
94.5
96.5
97.1
2.0
3.3
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.2
7.6
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.6
Others
200.4
199.3
116.4
106.1
94.0
87.7
86.1
88.6
30.6
25.5
6.1
5.1
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.8
-2.2
-1.8
-1.9
0.1
-1.1
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
China (APS)


360
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
470
809
2,288
3,282
4,710
6,425
8,655
11,486
6.5
7.5
6.9
6.0
6.7
Population (millions of people)
871
1,053
1,311
1,385
1,454
1,515
1,567
1,608
1.7
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.8
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.54 
 0.77 
 1.75 
 2.37 
 3.2 
 4.2 
 5.5 
 7.1 
4.8
6.3
6.0
5.4
5.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.35 
 0.42 
 0.65 
 0.77 
 0.92 
 1.07 
 1.24 
 1.44 
2.5
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 651 
 545 
 372 
 326 
 284 
 253 
 225 
 201 
-2.2
-2.6
-2.5
-2.2
-2.4
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 517 
 390 
 252 
 219 
 190 
 168 
 150 
 136 
-2.8
-2.8
-2.6
-2.1
-2.4
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 315 
 303 
 251 
 229 
 209 
 195 
 179 
 165 
-0.9
-1.8
-1.6
-1.7
-1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.48 
 0.56 
 0.68 
 0.70 
 0.74 
 0.77 
 0.80 
 0.82 
1.3
0.8
0.9
0.6
0.8
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 4 
 9 
 42 
 60 
 91 
 131 
 192 
 284 
9.5
7.5
8.1
8.0
8.0
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.005 
 0.009 
 0.032 
 0.043 
 0.062 
 0.086 
 0.122 
 0.176 
7.7
6.4
7.1
7.4
7.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
305.7
440.9
851.1
1,068.7 1,335.8 1,623.6 1,944.1 2,312.46
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.2
4.7
4.3
3.6
4.1
Coal
92.7
145.9
378.9
505.6
675.2
864.8
1,070.0 1,290.0
30.3
33.1
44.5
47.3
50.5
53.3
55.0
55.8
5.8
5.9
5.5
4.1
5.0
Oil
61.1
112.0
206.2
254.7
316.5
386.2
474.1
592.1
20.0
25.4
24.2
23.8
23.7
23.8
24.4
25.6
5.0
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.3
Natural gas
10.6
23.1
43.2
60.7
83.0
108.8
139.4
175.6
3.5
5.2
5.1
5.7
6.2
6.7
7.2
7.6
5.8
7.0
6.0
4.9
5.8
Nuclear
1.6
4.4
9.8
17.5
25.8
34.7
41.6
48.6
0.5
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.1
7.5
12.4
7.1
3.4
6.6
Hydro
6.2
6.4
11.9
16.0
18.9
21.8
24.7
27.5
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
2.7
6.2
3.1
2.4
3.4
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
133.6
149.1
201.2
214.2
216.5
207.4
194.3
178.6
43.7
33.8
23.6
20.0
16.2
12.8
10.0
7.7
1.7
1.3
-0.3
-1.5
-0.5
Biomass
133.5
148.8
195.5
200.5
195.5
178.9
158.2
134.9
43.7
33.7
23.0
18.8
14.6
11.0
8.1
5.8
1.5
0.5
-1.1
-2.8
-1.5
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.2
4.8
12.5
19.7
27.1
34.6
42.1
0.0
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.8
27.8
21.0
8.0
4.5
9.1
Biofuels
0.0
0.1
0.82
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
-
-1.3
1.9
2.2
1.4
Electricity
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-10.2
121.5
0.0
0.0
17.2
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
292.7
569.7
1,383.0 1,926.1 2,548.9 3,255.4 4,003.6 4,809.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.4
6.8
5.4
4.0
5.1
Coal
191.6
390.2
1,041.5
1,400.9
1,854.6
2,388.5
2,972.4 3,598.9
65.5
68.5
75.3
72.7
72.8
73.4
74.2
74.8
7.0
6.1
5.5
4.2
5.1
Oil
13.3
29.2
23.0
23.4
20.9
13.9
1.4
0.0
4.5
5.1
1.7
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.4
-5.1
-44.6
-22.6
Natural gas
10.0
56.0
68.1
91.1
120.0
153.7
190.2
230.2
3.4
9.8
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
8.0
6.0
5.4
4.1
5.0
Nuclear
6.1
16.9
37.4
67.1
99.0
133.1
159.7
186.3
2.1
3.0
2.7
3.5
3.9
4.1
4.0
3.9
7.5
12.4
7.1
3.4
6.6
Hydro
71.7
74.5
138.1
186.4
219.8
253.3
286.7
320.2
24.5
13.1
10.0
9.7
8.6
7.8
7.2
6.7
2.7
6.2
3.1
2.4
3.4
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
3.0
75.0
157.2
234.6
312.9
393.1
473.4
0.0
0.5
5.4
8.2
9.2
9.6
9.8
9.8
36.4
16.0
7.1
4.2
7.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
56.8
121.4
275.5
357.4
458.6
576.7
700.5
832.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.5
5.3
4.9
3.7
4.5
Coal
48.4
103.2
254.0
331.7
427.9
541.7
662.5
787.5
85.1
85.0
92.2
92.8
93.3
93.9
94.6
94.6
6.9
5.5
5.0
3.8
4.6
Oil
5.0
9.0
7.8
7.5
6.6
4.4
0.5
0.0
8.8
7.4
2.8
2.1
1.4
0.8
0.1
0.0
1.8
-0.8
-5.2
-44.6
-22.9
Natural gas
3.5
9.3
13.6
18.2
24.0
30.6
37.6
45.0
6.1
7.6
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.6
6.0
5.3
3.9
4.9
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
147.9
245.2
574.7
751.7
986.8
1,252.2
1,551.1
1,893.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.6
5.5
5.2
4.2
4.9
Coal
100.1
157.6
409.2
546.0
729.2
934.0
1,155.6
1,393.2
67.7
64.3
71.2
72.6
73.9
74.6
74.5
73.6
5.8
5.9
5.5
4.1
5.0
Oil
44.2
77.7
150.8
185.4
230.2
282.1
349.0
441.2
29.9
31.7
26.2
24.7
23.3
22.5
22.5
23.3
5.0
4.2
4.3
4.6
4.4
Natural gas
3.6
9.9
14.6
20.3
27.5
36.1
46.5
59.3
2.4
4.0
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
5.8
6.7
5.9
5.1
5.8
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.5
33.7
35.4
36.5
37.4
38.1
38.8
39.6
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
Coal
34.1
32.5
35.3
36.3
37.3
37.9
38.6
39.3
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
Oil
22.8
28.0
25.2
26.8
27.1
27.3
27.5
27.7
0.4
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
Natural gas
24.7
52.0
43.0
43.0
43.0
43.1
43.5
44.0
2.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
243.2
315.3
577.7
719.8
896.2
1,081.9 1,299.5 1,560.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.5
4.5
4.2
3.7
4.1
Industry
66.7
83.4
195.3
260.3
341.9
432.8
542.6
673.0
27.4
26.5
33.8
36.2
38.1
40.0
41.8
43.1
4.4
5.9
5.2
4.5
5.1
Transportation
20.8
31.9
86.0
109.9
139.8
176.7
227.6
297.4
8.6
10.1
14.9
15.3
15.6
16.3
17.5
19.1
5.8
5.0
4.9
5.3
5.1
Others
142.3
173.2
249.9
287.3
332.8
370.8
405.2
441.6
58.5
54.9
43.3
39.9
37.1
34.3
31.2
28.3
2.3
2.8
2.6
1.8
2.3
Non-energy
13.3
26.8
46.5
62.3
81.7
101.7
124.1
148.4
5.5
8.5
8.0
8.7
9.1
9.4
9.5
9.5
5.1
6.0
5.0
3.8
4.8
Total
243.2
315.3
577.7
719.8
896.2
1,081.9 1,299.5 1,560.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.5
4.5
4.2
3.7
4.1
Coal
38.6
34.5
108.2
151.0
215.0
281.3
355.0
438.3
15.9
10.9
18.7
21.0
24.0
26.0
27.3
28.1
4.2
6.9
6.4
4.5
5.8
Oil
50.2
94.4
174.4
219.9
278.5
345.9
431.9
542.5
20.6
29.9
30.2
30.6
31.1
32.0
33.2
34.8
5.1
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
Natural gas
5.6
9.7
28.9
41.6
57.7
76.4
99.6
127.7
2.3
3.1
5.0
5.8
6.4
7.1
7.7
8.2
6.8
7.5
6.3
5.3
6.1
Electricity
18.5
32.4
88.3
124.0
165.7
215.1
269.9
331.3
7.6
10.3
15.3
17.2
18.5
19.9
20.8
21.2
6.5
7.0
5.7
4.4
5.4
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
130.3
144.4
177.8
183.4
179.2
163.3
143.2
120.5
53.6
45.8
30.8
25.5
20.0
15.1
11.0
7.7
1.3
0.6
-1.2
-3.0
-1.5
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
India (BAU)


361
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
470
809
2,288
3,282
4,710
6,425
8,655
11,486
6.5
7.5
6.9
6.0
6.7
Population (millions of people)
871
1,053
1,311
1,385
1,454
1,515
1,567
1,608
1.7
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.8
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.54 
 0.77 
 1.75 
 2.37 
 3.2 
 4.2 
 5.5 
 7.1 
4.8
6.3
6.0
5.4
5.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.35 
 0.42 
 0.65 
 0.76 
 0.88 
 0.98 
 1.10 
 1.23 
2.5
3.2
2.6
2.2
2.6
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 651 
 545 
 372 
 320 
 271 
 232 
 199 
 172 
-2.2
-2.9
-3.2
-3.0
-3.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 517 
 390 
 252 
 217 
 185 
 160 
 139 
 122 
-2.8
-3.0
-3.0
-2.7
-2.9
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 315 
 303 
 251 
 223 
 194 
 171 
 148 
 130 
-0.9
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7
-2.6
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.48 
 0.56 
 0.68 
 0.69 
 0.72 
 0.73 
 0.75 
 0.75 
1.3
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.4
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 4 
 9 
 42 
 60 
 91 
 131 
 192 
 284 
9.5
7.5
8.1
8.0
8.0
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.005 
 0.009 
 0.032 
 0.043 
 0.062 
 0.086 
 0.122 
 0.176 
7.7
6.4
7.1
7.4
7.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
305.7
440.9
851.1
1,051.8 1,276.6 1,492.4 1,718.2
1,973.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.2
4.3
3.6
2.8
3.4
Coal
92.7
145.9
378.9
489.1
618.2
741.2
858.1
981.6
30.3
33.1
44.5
46.5
48.4
49.7
49.9
49.7
5.8
5.2
4.2
2.8
3.9
Oil
61.1
112.0
206.2
252.2
307.8
367.0
437.6
526.1
20.0
25.4
24.2
24.0
24.1
24.6
25.5
26.7
5.0
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.8
Natural gas
10.6
23.1
43.2
59.2
78.3
98.9
122.4
149.6
3.5
5.2
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6
5.8
6.5
5.3
4.2
5.1
Nuclear
1.6
4.4
9.8
17.5
27.7
41.6
55.5
69.4
0.5
1.0
1.1
1.7
2.2
2.8
3.2
3.5
7.5
12.4
9.1
5.2
8.2
Hydro
6.2
6.4
11.9
16.9
20.5
24.1
27.7
31.3
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.7
7.3
3.6
2.6
4.0
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
133.6
149.1
201.2
216.9
224.0
219.7
217.0
215.1
43.7
33.8
23.6
20.6
17.6
14.7
12.6
10.9
1.7
1.5
0.1
-0.2
0.3
Biomass
133.5
148.8
195.5
202.6
197.6
180.4
159.5
136.7
43.7
33.7
23.0
19.3
15.5
12.1
9.3
6.9
1.5
0.7
-1.1
-2.7
-1.4
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.2
4.8
12.7
24.1
35.5
51.1
66.8
0.0
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.9
2.4
3.0
3.4
27.8
21.3
10.8
6.5
11.1
Biofuels
0.0
0.1
0.82
1.2
2.0
3.3
6.0
11.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.6
-
8.1
10.7
12.8
11.0
Electricity
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-10.2
121.5
0.0
0.0
17.2
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
292.7
569.7
1,383.0 1,892.4 2,449.9 3,022.7
3,619.7
4,262.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.4
6.5
4.8
3.5
4.6
Coal
191.6
390.2
1,041.5
1,352.3
1,679.3
2,012.1
2,326.3
2,674.4
65.5
68.5
75.3
71.5
68.5
66.6
64.3
62.7
7.0
5.4
4.1
2.9
3.8
Oil
13.3
29.2
23.0
22.6
18.9
11.7
1.1
0.0
4.5
5.1
1.7
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
2.2
-0.3
-6.3
-45.2
-23.5
Natural gas
10.0
56.0
68.1
87.9
108.6
129.5
148.9
171.1
3.4
9.8
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.3
4.1
4.0
8.0
5.3
3.9
2.8
3.8
Nuclear
6.1
16.9
37.4
67.1
106.5
159.7
212.9
266.2
2.1
3.0
2.7
3.5
4.3
5.3
5.9
6.2
7.5
12.4
9.1
5.2
8.2
Hydro
71.7
74.5
138.1
196.4
238.2
280.1
321.9
363.7
24.5
13.1
10.0
10.4
9.7
9.3
8.9
8.5
2.7
7.3
3.6
2.6
4.0
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
3.0
75.0
166.1
298.5
429.6
608.6
787.5
0.0
0.5
5.4
8.8
12.2
14.2
16.8
18.5
36.4
17.2
10.0
6.2
9.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
56.8
121.4
275.5
341.2
404.8
464.1
514.0
570.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.5
4.4
3.1
2.1
3.0
Coal
48.4
103.2
254.0
317.0
378.9
437.6
488.3
542.4
85.1
85.0
92.2
92.9
93.6
94.3
95.0
95.1
6.9
4.5
3.3
2.2
3.1
Oil
5.0
9.0
7.8
7.4
6.0
3.6
0.3
0.0
8.8
7.4
2.8
2.2
1.5
0.8
0.1
0.0
1.8
-1.1
-7.1
-45.6
-24.1
Natural gas
3.5
9.3
13.6
16.9
20.0
22.9
25.4
28.1
6.1
7.6
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.6
4.4
3.1
2.1
2.9
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
147.9
245.2
574.7
730.9
915.0
1,096.2 1,280.8 1,488.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.6
4.9
4.1
3.1
3.9
Coal
100.1
157.6
409.2
528.2
667.7
800.4
926.7
1,060.1
67.7
64.3
71.2
72.3
73.0
73.0
72.4
71.2
5.8
5.2
4.2
2.8
3.9
Oil
44.2
77.7
150.8
183.4
222.9
266.0
318.4
385.9
29.9
31.7
26.2
25.1
24.4
24.3
24.9
25.9
5.0
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
Natural gas
3.6
9.9
14.6
19.3
24.4
29.8
35.6
42.6
2.4
4.0
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
5.8
5.7
4.4
3.6
4.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.5
33.7
35.4
36.9
38.4
39.9
41.4
42.9
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
Coal
34.1
32.5
35.3
36.7
38.1
39.5
41.0
42.4
0.1
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
Oil
22.8
28.0
25.2
26.2
27.3
28.4
29.4
30.5
0.4
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
Natural gas
24.7
52.0
43.0
44.8
46.7
48.6
50.4
52.3
2.2
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.8
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
243.2
315.3
577.7
713.3
872.9
1,027.7 1,200.9 1,400.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.5
4.3
3.7
3.1
3.6
Industry
66.7
83.4
195.3
258.9
334.0
410.9
496.9
590.7
27.4
26.5
33.8
36.3
38.3
40.0
41.4
42.2
4.4
5.8
4.7
3.7
4.5
Transportation
20.8
31.9
86.0
108.4
134.4
164.5
204.5
257.4
8.6
10.1
14.9
15.2
15.4
16.0
17.0
18.4
5.8
4.7
4.3
4.6
4.5
Others
142.3
173.2
249.9
283.8
322.8
350.6
375.5
403.9
58.5
54.9
43.3
39.8
37.0
34.1
31.3
28.8
2.3
2.6
2.1
1.4
1.9
Non-energy
13.3
26.8
46.5
62.3
81.7
101.7
124.1
148.4
5.5
8.5
8.0
8.7
9.4
9.9
10.3
10.6
5.1
6.0
5.0
3.8
4.8
Total
243.2
315.3
577.7
713.3
872.9
1,027.7 1,200.9 1,400.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.5
4.3
3.7
3.1
3.6
Coal
38.6
34.5
108.2
150.0
209.9
267.7
327.7
390.3
15.9
10.9
18.7
21.0
24.0
26.0
27.3
27.9
4.2
6.7
6.0
3.8
5.3
Oil
50.2
94.4
174.4
217.8
271.4
329.3
398.7
482.1
20.6
29.9
30.2
30.5
31.1
32.0
33.2
34.4
5.1
4.6
4.2
3.9
4.2
Natural gas
5.6
9.7
28.9
41.5
57.0
74.4
95.1
119.0
2.3
3.1
5.0
5.8
6.5
7.2
7.9
8.5
6.8
7.5
6.0
4.8
5.8
Electricity
18.5
32.4
88.3
121.8
159.3
199.7
244.0
293.7
7.6
10.3
15.3
17.1
18.3
19.4
20.3
21.0
6.5
6.6
5.1
3.9
4.9
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
130.3
144.4
177.8
182.3
175.2
156.6
135.5
115.3
53.6
45.8
30.8
25.6
20.1
15.2
11.3
8.2
1.3
0.5
-1.5
-3.0
-1.7
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
India (APS)


362
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
310
453
988
1,300
1,740
2,328
3,101
4,052
4.7
5.6
6.0
5.7
5.8
Population (millions of people)
179
209
258
274
287
298
307
317
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.8
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 1.7 
 2.2 
 3.8 
 4.75 
 6.1 
 7.8 
 10.1 
 12.8 
3.2
4.4
5.1
5.0
4.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.6 
 0.7 
 0.9 
 1.23 
 1.43 
 1.61 
 1.86 
 2.12 
1.9
6.8
2.7
2.8
3.5
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 318 
 341 
 232 
 260 
 236 
 206 
 184 
 166 
-1.3
2.3
-2.3
-2.1
-1.3
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 258 
 265 
 165 
 194 
 176 
 153 
 133 
 118 
-1.8
3.3
-2.3
-2.6
-1.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 132 
 167 
 123 
 168 
 157 
 144 
 127 
 118 
-0.3
6.3
-1.5
-2.0
-0.2
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.4 
 0.5 
 0.5 
 0.65 
 0.67 
 0.70 
 0.69 
 0.71 
1.0
4.0
0.8
0.1
1.2
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
98.62
154.77
229.46
337.80
410.03
478.58
571.54
671.41
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
8.0
3.5
3.4
4.4
Coal
3.55
12.01
46.41
84.65
105.99
141.89
174.66
217.96
3.6
7.8
20.2
25.1
25.8
29.6
30.6
32.5
10.8
12.8
5.3
4.4
6.4
Oil
33.35
57.86
67.70
133.75
168.40
193.36
210.79
234.40
33.8
37.4
29.5
39.6
41.1
40.4
36.9
34.9
2.9
14.6
3.8
1.9
5.1
Natural gas
15.80
26.54
40.23
47.83
55.72
64.17
82.73
111.41
16.0
17.1
17.5
14.2
13.6
13.4
14.5
16.6
3.8
3.5
3.0
5.7
4.2
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.49
0.86
1.18
0.80
1.64
1.55
2.08
2.27
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
3.6
-7.5
6.8
3.9
2.6
Geothermal
1.93
8.37
17.28
9.46
14.81
13.66
30.18
32.97
2.0
5.4
7.5
2.8
3.6
2.9
5.3
4.9
9.2
-11.3
3.7
9.2
2.6
Others
43.50
49.12
56.66
61.31
63.46
63.95
71.10
72.40
44.1
31.7
24.7
18.2
15.5
13.4
12.4
10.8
1.1
1.6
0.4
1.2
1.0
Biomass
43.50
49.12
55.66
55.45
54.56
53.81
54.23
54.60
44.1
31.7
24.3
16.4
13.3
11.2
9.5
8.1
1.0
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
-0.1
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.00
0.03
0.05
0.05
0.19
0.20
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
67.8
4.8
14.5
19.3
Biofuels
-
-
0.99
5.75
8.86
10.09
16.68
17.59
0.0
0.0
0.4
1.7
2.2
2.1
2.9
2.6
-
42.0
5.8
5.7
12.2
Electricity
-
-
0.00
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
133.8
-100.0
-
-100.0
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.67
93.33
233.33
357.09
454.25
577.40
752.99 968.73
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.2
8.9
4.9
5.3
5.9
Coal
9.77
34.00
130.51
264.51
334.19
452.14
558.28
681.30
29.9
36.4
55.9
74.1
73.6
78.3
74.1
70.3
10.9
15.2
5.5
4.2
6.8
Oil
15.33
18.34
19.65
13.04
15.00
12.69
14.06
15.36
46.9
19.7
8.4
3.7
3.3
2.2
1.9
1.6
1.0
-7.9
-0.3
1.9
-1.0
Natural gas
0.73
26.09
58.89
64.07
76.46
85.71
134.19
220.00
2.2
28.0
25.2
17.9
16.8
14.8
17.8
22.7
19.2
1.7
3.0
9.9
5.4
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
5.71
10.02
13.74
9.29
19.09
17.99
24.17
26.41
17.5
10.7
5.9
2.6
4.2
3.1
3.2
2.7
3.6
-7.5
6.8
3.9
2.6
Geothermal
1.13
4.87
10.05
5.50
8.61
7.95
17.55
19.18
3.4
5.2
4.3
1.5
1.9
1.4
2.3
2.0
9.2
-11.3
3.7
9.2
2.6
Others
0.00
0.01
0.49
0.68
0.90
0.92
4.74
6.48
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.7
-
6.9
3.0
21.6
10.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
6.50
17.00
55.68
89.07
109.51
140.06
174.02
223.95
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.0
9.8
4.6
4.8
5.7
Coal
2.32
6.90
36.81
71.09
88.43
117.83
141.21
172.33
35.7
40.6
66.1
79.8
80.8
84.1
81.1
77.0
11.7
14.1
5.2
3.9
6.4
Oil
3.97
4.45
5.53
3.67
4.22
3.57
3.95
4.32
61.0
26.2
9.9
4.1
3.9
2.5
2.3
1.9
1.3
-7.9
-0.3
1.9
-1.0
Natural gas
0.21
5.65
13.35
14.31
16.86
18.66
28.85
47.30
3.2
33.2
24.0
16.1
15.4
13.3
16.6
21.1
18.1
1.4
2.7
9.7
5.2
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
40.9
75.8
122.0
218.0
273.1
335.8
394.8
476.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.5
12.3
4.4
3.6
5.6
Coal
8.4
15.1
49.4
90.1
112.8
151.0
185.8
231.9
20.5
19.9
40.5
41.3
41.3
45.0
47.1
48.7
7.4
12.8
5.3
4.4
6.4
Oil
27.2
46.1
23.9
28.5
32.9
37.4
48.0
64.7
66.6
60.9
19.6
13.1
12.0
11.1
12.2
13.6
-0.5
3.6
2.8
5.6
4.1
Natural gas
5.3
14.6
48.7
99.4
127.5
147.4
161.0
179.5
12.9
19.2
40.0
45.6
46.7
43.9
40.8
37.7
9.3
15.3
4.0
2.0
5.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
34.2
39.7
32.3
33.0
33.4
33.8
34.9
35.2
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.3
Coal
36.1
42.4
30.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
34.0
34.0
-0.7
1.0
0.3
0.3
0.4
Oil
33.2
35.4
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
30.1
39.7
37.9
38.5
39.0
39.5
40.0
40.0
0.9
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
79.817 120.322 162.772 252.265 306.720 357.205 412.712 476.771
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
9.2
3.5
2.9
4.4
Industry
18.09
30.65
41.55
59.09
72.52
91.63
117.66
150.60
22.7
25.5
25.5
23.4
23.6
25.7
28.5
31.6
3.4
7.3
4.5
5.1
5.3
Transportation
10.71
21.87
44.17
108.87
142.28
163.50
179.54
194.09
13.4
18.2
27.1
43.2
46.4
45.8
43.5
40.7
5.8
19.8
4.2
1.7
6.1
Others
43.66
58.01
69.86
75.88
81.44
88.85
98.67
110.80
54.7
48.2
42.9
30.1
26.6
24.9
23.9
23.2
1.9
1.7
1.6
2.2
1.9
Non-energy
7.35
9.80
7.19
8.43
10.48
13.23
16.84
21.28
9.2
8.1
4.4
3.3
3.4
3.7
4.1
4.5
-0.1
3.2
4.6
4.9
4.4
Total
79.82
120.32
162.77
252.27
306.72
357.21
412.71
476.77
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
9.2
3.5
2.9
4.4
Coal
2.13
4.65
9.60
13.56
17.56
24.06
33.45
45.63
2.7
3.9
5.9
5.4
5.7
6.7
8.1
9.6
6.2
7.1
5.9
6.6
6.4
Oil
27.24
49.01
56.19
119.97
153.99
179.60
196.64
219.88
34.1
40.7
34.5
47.6
50.2
50.3
47.6
46.1
2.9
16.4
4.1
2.0
5.6
Natural gas
6.02
11.55
24.24
31.31
37.20
44.41
53.34
64.13
7.5
9.6
14.9
12.4
12.1
12.4
12.9
13.5
5.7
5.2
3.6
3.7
4.0
Electricity
2.43
6.81
17.22
27.26
35.55
46.18
60.22
77.48
3.0
5.7
10.6
10.8
11.6
12.9
14.6
16.3
8.1
9.6
5.4
5.3
6.2
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
41.99
48.31
55.52
60.18
62.42
62.96
69.06
69.65
52.6
40.1
34.1
23.9
20.4
17.6
16.7
14.6
1.1
1.6
0.5
1.0
0.9
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Indonesia (BAU)


363
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
309.8
453.4
988.1
1,300
1,740
2,328
3,101
4,052
4.7
5.6
6.0
5.7
5.8
Population (millions of people)
178.6
208.9
258.2
273.6
287.0
298.1
307.5
317.1
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.8
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 1.7 
 2.2 
 3.8 
 4.75 
 6.1 
 7.8 
 10.1 
 12.8 
3.2
4.4
5.1
5.0
4.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.6 
 0.7 
 0.9 
 1.10 
 1.26 
 1.41 
 1.62 
 1.79 
1.9
4.4
2.5
2.4
2.8
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 318 
 341 
 232 
 232 
 208 
 181 
 161 
 140 
-1.3
0.0
-2.5
-2.5
-2.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 258 
 265 
 165 
 170 
 148 
 124 
 108 
 96 
-1.8
0.6
-3.1
-2.6
-2.1
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 132 
 167 
 123 
 124 
 108 
 93 
 80 
 75 
-0.3
0.1
-2.9
-2.1
-2.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.4 
 0.5 
 0.5 
 0.53 
 0.52 
 0.51 
 0.50 
 0.54 
1.0
0.1
-0.4
0.5
0.0
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
99
155
229
302
362
421
500
567
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
5.6
3.4
3.0
3.7
Coal
4
12
46.41
46.17
52.91
66.86
82.27
107.09
3.6
7.8
20.2
15.3
14.6
15.9
16.5
18.9
10.8
-0.1
3.8
4.8
3.4
Oil
33
58
67.70
116.15
137.96
150.54
164.04
183.88
33.8
37.4
29.5
38.5
38.1
35.7
32.8
32.4
2.9
11.4
2.6
2.0
4.1
Natural gas
16
27
40.23
46.00
51.48
56.95
69.30
93.70
16.0
17.1
17.5
15.2
14.2
13.5
13.9
16.5
3.8
2.7
2.2
5.1
3.4
Nuclear
0
0
0.00
0.00
2.44
2.46
4.42
4.92
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.9
-
-
-
7.2
-
Hydro
0
1
1.18
2.07
3.12
4.35
5.42
6.04
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
3.6
11.9
7.7
3.3
6.7
Geothermal
2
8
17.28
29.25
47.31
70.27
83.23
77.29
2.0
5.4
7.5
9.7
13.1
16.7
16.7
13.6
9.2
11.1
9.2
1.0
6.2
Others
43
49
56.66
62.23
66.56
69.79
90.90
94.36
44.1
31.7
24.7
20.6
18.4
16.6
18.2
16.6
1.1
1.9
1.2
3.1
2.1
Biomass
43
49
55.66
57.45
59.75
62.42
78.33
81.06
44.1
31.7
24.3
19.0
16.5
14.8
15.7
14.3
1.0
0.6
0.8
2.6
1.5
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.00
0.10
0.17
0.32
0.89
0.98
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
-
112.3
11.9
12.0
27.2
Biofuels
-
-
0.99
4.60
6.64
7.06
11.68
12.32
0.0
0.0
0.4
1.5
1.8
1.7
2.3
2.2
-
35.8
4.4
5.7
10.6
Electricity
-
-
0.00
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
133.8
-100.0
-
-100.0
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.67
93.33
233.33
310.96
384.26
472.61
616.11
792.47
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.2
5.9
4.3
5.3
5.0
Coal
9.77
34.00
130.51
152.90
178.48
226.65
270.64
344.12
29.9
36.4
55.9
49.2
46.4
48.0
43.9
43.4
10.9
3.2
4.0
4.3
4.0
Oil
15.33
18.34
19.65
25.44
26.41
24.69
22.18
24.71
46.9
19.7
8.4
8.2
6.9
5.2
3.6
3.1
1.0
5.3
-0.3
0.0
0.9
Natural gas
0.73
26.09
58.89
83.37
89.74
94.31
124.00
210.71
2.2
28.0
25.2
26.8
23.4
20.0
20.1
26.6
19.2
7.2
1.2
8.4
5.2
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.38
9.43
16.94
18.88
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.4
2.0
2.8
2.4
-
-
-
7.2
-
Hydro
5.71
10.02
13.74
24.06
36.29
50.52
63.03
70.24
17.5
10.7
5.9
7.7
9.4
10.7
10.2
8.9
3.6
11.9
7.7
3.3
6.7
Geothermal
1.13
4.87
10.05
17.01
27.51
40.87
48.41
44.95
3.4
5.2
4.3
5.5
7.2
8.6
7.9
5.7
9.2
11.1
9.2
1.0
6.2
Others
0.00
0.01
0.49
8.18
16.45
26.14
70.90
78.84
0.0
0.0
0.2
2.6
4.3
5.5
11.5
9.9
-
75.7
12.3
11.7
22.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
6.50
17.00
55.68
57.34
62.58
71.38
83.32
114.19
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.0
0.6
2.2
4.8
2.9
Coal
2.32
6.90
36.81
34.60
38.37
47.54
55.42
70.46
35.7
40.6
66.1
60.3
61.3
66.6
66.5
61.7
11.7
-1.2
3.2
4.0
2.6
Oil
3.97
4.45
5.53
7.16
7.43
6.94
6.24
6.95
61.0
26.2
9.9
12.5
11.9
9.7
7.5
6.1
1.3
5.3
-0.3
0.0
0.9
Natural gas
0.21
5.65
13.35
15.59
16.78
16.90
21.66
36.78
3.2
33.2
24.0
27.2
26.8
23.7
26.0
32.2
18.1
3.1
0.8
8.1
4.1
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
40.9
75.8
122.0
161.1
188.6
215.7
249.1
304.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.5
5.7
3.0
3.5
3.7
Coal
8.4
15.1
49.4
49.1
56.3
71.2
87.6
114.0
20.5
19.9
40.5
30.5
29.9
33.0
35.2
37.4
7.4
-0.1
3.8
4.8
3.4
Oil
27.2
46.1
23.9
27.1
29.9
32.4
39.0
53.0
66.6
60.9
19.6
16.8
15.8
15.0
15.7
17.4
-0.5
2.5
1.8
5.0
3.2
Natural gas
5.3
14.6
48.7
85.0
102.4
112.2
122.5
137.8
12.9
19.2
40.0
52.7
54.3
52.0
49.2
45.2
9.3
11.8
2.8
2.1
4.2
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
34.2
39.7
32.3
39.2
40.5
41.6
43.0
43.6
-0.2
4.0
0.6
0.5
1.2
Coal
36.1
42.4
30.5
38.0
40.0
41.0
42.0
42.0
-0.7
4.5
0.8
0.2
1.3
Oil
33.2
35.4
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
30.1
39.7
37.9
46.0
46.0
48.0
49.2
49.3
0.9
3.9
0.4
0.3
1.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
80
120
163
221
257
289
334
388
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
6.3
2.7
3.0
3.5
Industry
18
31
41.55
51.04
61.04
75.05
96.35
123.28
22.7
25.5
25.5
23.1
23.7
26.0
28.8
31.8
3.4
4.2
3.9
5.1
4.4
Transportation
11
22
44.17
88.36
108.89
117.93
130.24
141.79
13.4
18.2
27.1
40.0
42.3
40.8
38.9
36.6
5.8
14.9
2.9
1.9
4.8
Others
44
58
69.86
72.84
77.05
82.60
91.04
101.49
54.7
48.2
42.9
33.0
29.9
28.6
27.2
26.2
1.9
0.8
1.3
2.1
1.5
Non-energy
7
10
7.19
8.43
10.48
13.23
16.84
21.28
9.2
8.1
4.4
3.8
4.1
4.6
5.0
5.5
-0.1
3.2
4.6
4.9
4.4
Total
80
120
163
221
257
289
334
388
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
6.3
2.7
3.0
3.5
Coal
2.13
4.65
9.60
11.56
14.54
19.32
26.85
36.63
2.7
3.9
5.9
5.2
5.6
6.7
8.0
9.4
6.2
3.8
5.3
6.6
5.5
Oil
27.24
49.01
56.19
98.88
120.34
133.40
147.60
166.73
34.1
40.7
34.5
44.8
46.7
46.2
44.1
43.0
2.9
12.0
3.0
2.3
4.4
Natural gas
6.02
11.55
24.24
28.20
33.04
38.96
47.10
56.95
7.5
9.6
14.9
12.8
12.8
13.5
14.1
14.7
5.7
3.1
3.3
3.9
3.5
Electricity
2.43
6.81
17.22
23.87
30.22
38.08
49.65
63.86
3.0
5.7
10.6
10.8
11.7
13.2
14.8
16.5
8.1
6.7
4.8
5.3
5.4
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
41.99
48.31
55.52
58.16
59.32
59.04
63.27
63.68
52.6
40.1
34.1
26.4
23.0
20.4
18.9
16.4
1.1
0.9
0.1
0.8
0.5
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Indonesia (APS)


364
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
4,683
5,349
5,986
6,222
6,533
6,948
7,342
7,705
1.0
0.8
1.1
1.0
1.0
Population (millions of people)
124
127
127
125
123
121
118
114
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 37.91 
 42.17 
 47.15 
 49.58 
 53.0 
 57.6 
 62.5 
 67.4 
0.9
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.55 
 4.08 
 3.39 
 3.51 
 3.56 
 3.59 
 3.60 
 3.62 
-0.2
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 94 
 97 
 72 
 71 
 67 
 62 
 58 
 54 
-1.1
-0.3
-1.3
-1.5
-1.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 61 
 61 
 49 
 46 
 43 
 40 
 37 
 35 
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-1.5
-1.4
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 62 
 61 
 52 
 48 
 43 
 40 
 37 
 34 
-0.7
-1.5
-1.9
-1.6
-1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.67 
 0.63 
 0.73 
 0.68 
 0.64 
 0.64 
 0.65 
 0.64 
0.4
-1.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.5
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 58 
 72 
 77 
 77 
 77 
 76 
 74 
 72 
1.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.467 
 0.571 
 0.608 
 0.617 
 0.623 
 0.627 
 0.630 
 0.633 
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
438.6
517.9
429.8
440.5
439.6
432.9
423.7
414.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
-0.1
0.5
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
Coal
76.5
97.2
117.5
116.2
110.1
111.8
112.5
110.4
17.4
18.8
27.3
26.4
25.1
25.8
26.5
26.6
1.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
Oil
250.3
255.1
184.9
172.9
160.6
151.5
142.0
132.7
57.1
49.3
43.0
39.2
36.5
35.0
33.5
32.0
-1.2
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
Natural gas
44.2
65.7
100.0
98.8
95.4
98.4
100.4
99.9
10.1
12.7
23.3
22.4
21.7
22.7
23.7
24.1
3.3
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
Nuclear
52.7
83.9
2.5
25.2
42.9
37.9
32.7
32.7
12.0
16.2
0.6
5.7
9.8
8.8
7.7
7.9
-11.5
59.3
4.1
-1.5
10.9
Hydro
7.5
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.6
7.9
8.0
8.1
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.3
0.4
Geothermal
1.6
3.1
2.4
3.0
4.2
5.4
6.4
7.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.7
4.6
6.2
3.2
4.6
Others
5.9
5.7
15.3
17.1
18.7
20.1
21.7
23.1
1.3
1.1
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
5.1
5.6
3.9
2.3
1.6
1.4
1.7
Biomass
4.5
4.7
11.4
11.9
12.2
12.4
12.9
13.3
1.0
0.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.8
0.9
0.5
0.6
0.6
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
1.4
0.9
3.9
4.8
5.9
6.9
8.0
9.0
0.3
0.2
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
4.2
4.7
3.7
2.7
3.5
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-100.0
-
6.0
1.7
-
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
872.6
1,088.1 1,035.3 1,087.5
1,113.8
1,135.9
1,147.7
1,151.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.7
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.4
Coal
117.7
233.8
343.2
329.4
310.1
325.6
337.4
337.4
13.5
21.5
33.2
30.3
27.8
28.7
29.4
29.3
4.4
-0.8
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
Oil
283.7
179.3
102.5
84.9
67.6
58.7
48.4
36.5
32.5
16.5
9.9
7.8
6.1
5.2
4.2
3.2
-4.0
-3.7
-3.6
-4.6
-4.0
Natural gas
170.6
253.6
409.8
390.7
365.4
381.3
392.6
390.4
19.6
23.3
39.6
35.9
32.8
33.6
34.2
33.9
3.6
-1.0
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
Nuclear
202.3
322.0
9.4
96.9
164.8
145.4
125.5
125.5
23.2
29.6
0.9
8.9
14.8
12.8
10.9
10.9
-11.5
59.3
4.1
-1.5
10.9
Hydro
86.9
85.2
85.2
85.0
88.9
91.5
93.2
94.2
10.0
7.8
8.2
7.8
8.0
8.1
8.1
8.2
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.3
0.4
Geothermal
1.7
3.3
2.6
3.3
4.7
6.1
7.3
8.5
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1.6
4.9
6.4
3.3
4.9
Others
9.6
10.7
82.5
97.3
112.4
127.4
143.4
159.3
1.1
1.0
8.0
8.9
10.1
11.2
12.5
13.8
9.0
3.4
2.7
2.3
2.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
117.9
132.8
161.6
151.8
138.3
140.0
140.5
136.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.3
-1.2
-0.8
-0.3
-0.7
Coal
25.2
48.5
69.6
66.0
61.0
62.7
64.0
63.0
21.4
36.5
43.1
43.5
44.1
44.8
45.5
46.2
4.2
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.4
Oil
58.8
35.9
20.3
17.5
13.9
11.9
9.7
7.2
49.9
27.0
12.5
11.5
10.0
8.5
6.9
5.3
-4.2
-2.9
-3.8
-4.9
-4.1
Natural gas
33.9
48.5
71.8
68.3
63.4
65.4
66.9
66.1
28.7
36.5
44.4
45.0
45.9
46.7
47.6
48.5
3.0
-1.0
-0.4
0.1
-0.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
292.1
325.9
312.9
301.3
282.6
278.9
273.4
263.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.3
-0.8
-0.8
-0.6
-0.7
Coal
82.0
104.5
126.5
125.1
118.5
120.3
121.1
118.8
28.1
32.1
40.4
41.5
41.9
43.1
44.3
45.1
1.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.3
Oil
182.0
179.4
122.5
113.0
103.2
95.8
88.2
80.8
62.3
55.0
39.2
37.5
36.5
34.3
32.3
30.7
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.7
-1.7
Natural gas
28.1
42.0
63.9
63.1
60.9
62.8
64.1
63.8
9.6
12.9
20.4
21.0
21.6
22.5
23.5
24.2
3.3
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
41.7
43.2
45.5
45.6
46.2
47.0
47.6
48.2
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
Coal
40.2
41.5
42.4
42.9
43.7
44.7
45.4
46.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
Oil
41.5
42.9
43.5
41.7
42.0
42.4
43.0
43.7
0.2
-0.9
0.2
0.3
0.0
Natural gas
43.3
45.0
49.1
49.2
49.5
50.1
50.5
50.7
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
287.0
328.2
291.4
288.3
283.2
278.8
272.9
266.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
Industry
109.6
99.7
82.1
80.4
80.3
81.0
81.0
80.6
38.2
30.4
28.2
27.9
28.4
29.0
29.7
30.3
-1.1
-0.4
0.1
0.0
-0.1
Transportation
68.1
84.4
71.3
65.5
60.8
57.4
54.4
51.7
23.7
25.7
24.5
22.7
21.5
20.6
19.9
19.4
0.2
-1.7
-1.3
-1.0
-1.3
Others
75.7
102.7
98.8
103.9
104.0
102.6
100.0
96.8
26.4
31.3
33.9
36.0
36.7
36.8
36.6
36.4
1.1
1.0
-0.1
-0.6
-0.1
Non-energy
33.7
41.4
39.2
38.5
38.1
37.8
37.4
36.9
11.8
12.6
13.4
13.4
13.5
13.6
13.7
13.9
0.6
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
Total
287.0
328.2
291.4
288.3
283.2
278.8
272.9
266.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
Coal
30.5
24.4
23.6
22.9
22.6
22.4
21.9
21.3
10.6
7.4
8.1
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
-1.0
-0.6
-0.2
-0.5
-0.4
Oil
170.7
194.5
152.3
143.4
135.1
128.2
121.3
114.7
59.5
59.3
52.3
49.8
47.7
46.0
44.4
43.1
-0.5
-1.2
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
Natural gas
15.2
21.7
29.5
31.5
32.7
33.6
34.1
34.3
5.3
6.6
10.1
10.9
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.9
2.7
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.6
Electricity
66.3
83.3
81.6
85.8
87.9
89.7
90.7
91.0
23.1
25.4
28.0
29.7
31.0
32.2
33.2
34.2
0.8
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.4
Heat
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.8
0.3
-0.4
-1.0
-0.5
Others
4.1
3.8
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.3
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
-0.2
1.5
0.5
-0.1
0.4
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Japan (BAU)


365
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
4,683
5,349
5,986
6,222
6,533
6,948
7,342
7,705
1.0
0.8
1.1
1.0
1.0
Population (millions of people)
124
127
127
125
123
121
118
114
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 37.91 
 42.17 
 47.15 
 49.58 
 53.0 
 57.6 
 62.5 
 67.4 
0.9
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.55 
 4.08 
 3.39 
 3.49 
 3.50 
 3.50 
 3.49 
 3.45 
-0.2
0.6
0.0
-0.2
0.1
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 94 
 97 
 72 
 70 
 66 
 61 
 56 
 51 
-1.1
-0.4
-1.5
-1.7
-1.3
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 61 
 61 
 49 
 46 
 42 
 38 
 35 
 32 
-0.9
-1.2
-1.8
-1.7
-1.6
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 62 
 61 
 52 
 48 
 41 
 36 
 32 
 28 
-0.7
-1.9
-2.7
-2.4
-2.4
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.67 
 0.63 
 0.73 
 0.68 
 0.63 
 0.60 
 0.57 
 0.56 
0.4
-1.5
-1.2
-0.7
-1.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 58 
 72 
 77 
 77 
 77 
 76 
 74 
 72 
1.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.467 
 0.571 
 0.608 
 0.617 
 0.623 
 0.627 
 0.630 
 0.633 
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
438.6
517.9
429.8
438.1
431.7
422.5
409.8
394.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
-0.1
0.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.3
Coal
76.5
97.2
117.5
115.3
108.0
104.2
95.7
90.2
17.4
18.8
27.3
26.3
25.0
24.7
23.4
22.9
1.7
-0.4
-1.0
-1.4
-1.1
Oil
250.3
255.1
184.9
170.5
154.4
140.6
128.4
118.2
57.1
49.3
43.0
38.9
35.8
33.3
31.3
30.0
-1.2
-1.6
-1.9
-1.7
-1.8
Natural gas
44.2
65.7
100.0
95.0
87.5
82.9
82.4
84.0
10.1
12.7
23.3
21.7
20.3
19.6
20.1
21.3
3.3
-1.0
-1.4
0.1
-0.7
Nuclear
52.7
83.9
2.5
28.9
49.1
58.4
62.1
55.9
12.0
16.2
0.6
6.6
11.4
13.8
15.2
14.2
-11.5
63.6
7.3
-0.4
13.3
Hydro
7.5
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.6
7.9
8.0
8.1
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.3
0.4
Geothermal
1.6
3.1
2.4
3.7
5.2
6.7
8.3
9.9
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.5
1.7
9.2
6.1
4.0
5.9
Others
5.9
5.7
15.3
17.5
19.8
21.9
24.9
27.8
1.3
1.1
3.5
4.0
4.6
5.2
6.1
7.1
3.9
2.7
2.3
2.4
2.4
Biomass
4.5
4.7
11.4
12.1
12.7
13.2
14.0
14.8
1.0
0.9
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.8
3.8
1.2
0.9
1.2
1.1
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
1.4
0.9
3.9
5.0
6.5
8.0
10.1
12.2
0.3
0.2
0.9
1.1
1.5
1.9
2.5
3.1
4.2
5.2
4.9
4.3
4.7
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-100.0
-
6.0
1.7
-
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
872.6
1,088.1 1,035.3 1,079.5 1,095.9 1,109.1
1,112.9
1,109.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.7
0.8
0.3
0.0
0.3
Coal
117.7
233.8
343.2
326.2
302.5
293.5
262.7
246.5
13.5
21.5
33.2
30.2
27.6
26.5
23.6
22.2
4.4
-1.0
-1.1
-1.7
-1.3
Oil
283.7
179.3
102.5
82.2
62.8
49.1
37.1
27.9
32.5
16.5
9.9
7.6
5.7
4.4
3.3
2.5
-4.0
-4.3
-5.0
-5.5
-5.1
Natural gas
170.6
253.6
409.8
371.2
325.1
298.5
296.9
308.8
19.6
23.3
39.6
34.4
29.7
26.9
26.7
27.8
3.6
-2.0
-2.2
0.3
-1.1
Nuclear
202.3
322.0
9.4
110.7
188.3
224.1
238.2
214.6
23.2
29.6
0.9
10.3
17.2
20.2
21.4
19.4
-11.5
63.6
7.3
-0.4
13.3
Hydro
86.9
85.2
85.2
85.0
88.9
91.5
93.2
94.2
10.0
7.8
8.2
7.9
8.1
8.3
8.4
8.5
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.3
0.4
Geothermal
1.7
3.3
2.6
4.1
5.9
7.6
9.5
11.4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.6
9.8
6.3
4.1
6.1
Others
9.6
10.7
82.5
100.1
122.4
144.7
175.2
205.7
1.1
1.0
8.0
9.3
11.2
13.0
15.7
18.5
9.0
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
117.9
132.8
161.6
146.9
128.3
116.9
106.9
102.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.3
-1.9
-2.3
-1.3
-1.8
Coal
25.2
48.5
69.6
65.3
59.2
56.1
49.4
45.5
21.4
36.5
43.1
44.4
46.2
48.0
46.2
44.3
4.2
-1.3
-1.5
-2.1
-1.7
Oil
58.8
35.9
20.3
16.9
12.8
9.9
7.4
5.4
49.9
27.0
12.5
11.5
10.0
8.5
6.9
5.3
-4.2
-3.5
-5.2
-5.8
-5.1
Natural gas
33.9
48.5
71.8
64.7
56.2
50.9
50.2
51.8
28.7
36.5
44.4
44.1
43.8
43.5
46.9
50.4
3.0
-2.1
-2.4
0.2
-1.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
292.1
325.9
312.9
295.9
270.1
251.7
232.3
219.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.3
-1.1
-1.6
-1.4
-1.4
Coal
82.0
104.5
126.5
124.1
116.3
112.1
102.9
97.0
28.1
32.1
40.4
41.9
43.0
44.5
44.3
44.3
1.7
-0.4
-1.0
-1.4
-1.1
Oil
182.0
179.4
122.5
111.1
97.9
86.7
76.8
68.7
62.3
55.0
39.2
37.5
36.3
34.4
33.1
31.3
-1.6
-1.9
-2.4
-2.3
-2.3
Natural gas
28.1
42.0
63.9
60.7
55.9
52.9
52.6
53.6
9.6
12.9
20.4
20.5
20.7
21.0
22.6
24.4
3.3
-1.0
-1.4
0.1
-0.7
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
41.7
43.2
45.5
45.6
46.3
47.1
48.0
48.8
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
Coal
40.2
41.5
42.4
43.0
43.9
45.0
45.8
46.6
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
Oil
41.5
42.9
43.5
41.8
42.2
42.7
43.4
44.2
0.2
-0.8
0.2
0.3
0.1
Natural gas
43.3
45.0
49.1
49.3
49.7
50.4
50.9
51.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
287.0
328.2
291.4
285.7
276.2
267.1
257.8
248.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.1
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
Industry
109.6
99.7
82.1
80.4
80.1
80.5
80.3
79.6
38.2
30.4
28.2
28.1
29.0
30.2
31.2
32.0
-1.1
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
Transportation
68.1
84.4
71.3
64.1
56.9
50.8
46.1
42.5
23.7
25.7
24.5
22.4
20.6
19.0
17.9
17.1
0.2
-2.1
-2.3
-1.8
-2.1
Others
75.7
102.7
98.8
102.7
101.1
97.9
94.0
89.7
26.4
31.3
33.9
36.0
36.6
36.7
36.4
36.1
1.1
0.8
-0.5
-0.9
-0.4
Non-energy
33.7
41.4
39.2
38.5
38.1
37.8
37.4
36.9
11.8
12.6
13.4
13.5
13.8
14.2
14.5
14.9
0.6
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
Total
287.0
328.2
291.4
285.7
276.2
267.1
257.8
248.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.1
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
Coal
30.5
24.4
23.6
22.9
22.5
22.3
21.7
21.0
10.6
7.4
8.1
8.0
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.4
-1.0
-0.6
-0.3
-0.6
-0.5
Oil
170.7
194.5
152.3
141.7
130.2
119.8
110.4
102.5
59.5
59.3
52.3
49.6
47.1
44.8
42.8
41.2
-0.5
-1.4
-1.7
-1.5
-1.6
Natural gas
15.2
21.7
29.5
31.3
32.1
32.7
32.9
32.8
5.3
6.6
10.1
11.0
11.6
12.2
12.8
13.2
2.7
1.2
0.4
0.0
0.4
Electricity
66.3
83.3
81.6
85.1
86.5
87.6
87.9
87.7
23.1
25.4
28.0
29.8
31.3
32.8
34.1
35.3
0.8
0.8
0.3
0.0
0.3
Heat
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.8
0.1
-0.7
-1.2
-0.7
Others
4.1
3.8
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.3
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
-0.2
1.5
0.4
-0.1
0.4
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Japan (APS)


366
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
377
710
1,267
1,460
1,683
1,898
2,101
2,272
5.0
2.9
2.7
1.8
2.4
Population (millions of people)
42.9
47.0
51.1
52.0
52.6
52.9
52.8
52.2
0.7
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.1
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 8.80 
 15.09 
 24.80 
 28.09 
 32.0 
 35.8 
 39.8 
 43.5 
4.2
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 2.17 
 4.00 
 5.34 
 5.53 
 5.66 
 5.74 
 5.82 
 5.81 
3.7
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 246 
 265 
 215 
 197 
 177 
 160 
 146 
 134 
-0.5
-1.8
-2.0
-1.8
-1.9
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 172 
 179 
 138 
 127 
 115 
 106 
 97 
 91 
-0.9
-1.7
-1.8
-1.5
-1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 173 
 166 
 125 
 113 
 101 
 90 
 85 
 80 
-1.3
-2.1
-2.2
-1.2
-1.8
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.70 
 0.63 
 0.58 
 0.57 
 0.57 
 0.57 
 0.58 
 0.60 
-0.7
-0.3
-0.2
0.6
0.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 3 
 12 
 21 
 24 
 26 
 28 
 29 
 29 
7.6
2.6
1.5
0.5
1.3
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.079 
 0.256 
 0.411 
 0.460 
 0.496 
 0.523 
 0.546 
 0.560 
6.8
2.3
1.3
0.7
1.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
92.9
188.2
272.7
287.2
297.6
303.8
307.2
303.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
1.0
0.6
0.0
0.4
Coal
25.4
41.9
80.8
83.9
86.3
85.6
90.3
92.3
27.3
22.3
29.6
29.2
29.0
28.2
29.4
30.4
4.7
0.8
0.2
0.8
0.5
Oil
49.7
99.0
102.7
105.0
108.3
110.0
110.5
109.1
53.5
52.6
37.7
36.6
36.4
36.2
36.0
35.9
2.9
0.4
0.5
-0.1
0.2
Natural gas
2.7
17.0
39.3
44.1
49.5
54.1
61.0
67.6
2.9
9.0
14.4
15.4
16.6
17.8
19.9
22.3
11.3
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.2
Nuclear
13.8
28.4
42.9
45.0
42.3
40.8
31.0
18.8
14.8
15.1
15.7
15.7
14.2
13.4
10.1
6.2
4.7
0.9
-1.0
-7.5
-3.3
Hydro
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-4.3
11.8
0.0
0.0
2.3
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-
2.2
1.8
1.1
1.6
Others
0.7
1.4
6.6
8.6
10.7
12.8
14.0
15.2
0.8
0.8
2.4
3.0
3.6
4.2
4.6
5.0
9.1
5.6
4.0
1.7
3.4
Biomass
0.7
1.3
5.0
5.4
5.7
5.9
6.0
5.9
0.8
0.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
8.1
1.8
0.8
0.1
0.7
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.0
0.6
2.1
3.8
5.7
6.8
8.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
1.3
1.9
2.2
2.6
18.1
26.9
10.5
3.4
10.6
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
17.1
3.0
0.9
0.2
1.1
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
105.4
288.5
549.2
595.4
641.6
682.9
719.0
743.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.8
1.6
1.4
0.9
1.2
Coal
17.7
111.4
236.6
241.1
255.4
261.8
287.0
308.6
16.8
38.6
43.1
40.5
39.8
38.3
39.9
41.5
10.9
0.4
0.8
1.7
1.1
Oil
18.9
34.6
12.5
11.2
10.2
8.5
7.2
5.2
17.9
12.0
2.3
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.7
-1.6
-2.2
-2.7
-4.9
-3.5
Natural gas
9.6
29.5
122.9
138.3
161.2
181.3
217.6
255.6
9.1
10.2
22.4
23.2
25.1
26.6
30.3
34.4
10.7
2.4
2.7
3.5
3.0
Nuclear
52.9
109.0
164.8
172.7
162.5
156.4
118.8
72.1
50.2
37.8
30.0
29.0
25.3
22.9
16.5
9.7
4.7
0.9
-1.0
-7.5
-3.3
Hydro
6.4
4.0
2.1
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
6.0
1.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
-4.3
11.8
0.0
0.0
2.3
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.1
10.4
28.4
48.5
71.1
84.6
98.1
0.0
0.0
1.9
4.8
7.6
10.4
11.8
13.2
44.7
22.3
9.6
3.3
9.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.5
40.4
79.6
81.4
86.7
88.9
98.7
106.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
0.4
0.9
1.8
1.2
Coal
6.0
27.1
56.4
57.3
59.4
58.9
63.4
65.9
47.7
66.9
70.8
70.4
68.5
66.2
64.3
61.9
9.4
0.3
0.3
1.1
0.6
Oil
4.5
7.6
4.1
2.6
2.3
2.0
1.6
1.2
36.0
18.9
5.2
3.2
2.7
2.2
1.7
1.1
-0.4
-8.7
-2.8
-5.0
-4.9
Natural gas
2.0
5.8
19.1
21.5
25.0
28.1
33.6
39.4
16.3
14.2
24.0
26.4
28.8
31.6
34.1
37.0
9.4
2.4
2.7
3.5
2.9
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
65.2
118.2
158.7
164.8
170.6
171.7
179.2
182.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.6
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.6
Coal
27.4
45.3
86.7
89.9
92.4
91.5
96.3
98.4
42.1
38.3
54.6
54.6
54.2
53.3
53.8
53.8
4.7
0.7
0.2
0.7
0.5
Oil
36.0
62.0
46.8
46.5
46.5
45.5
43.8
41.1
55.3
52.4
29.5
28.2
27.3
26.5
24.4
22.5
1.1
-0.1
-0.2
-1.0
-0.5
Natural gas
1.7
10.9
25.2
28.3
31.7
34.7
39.1
43.3
2.7
9.2
15.9
17.2
18.6
20.2
21.8
23.7
11.3
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.2
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
31.7
37.3
40.2
41.3
42.3
43.7
44.6
46.0
1.0
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
Coal
25.4
35.4
36.1
36.2
37.0
38.2
38.9
40.3
1.4
0.0
0.6
0.5
0.4
Oil
35.9
39.0
26.1
37.0
37.2
37.5
37.7
37.8
-1.3
7.2
0.1
0.1
1.5
Natural gas
40.6
44.0
55.3
55.4
55.5
55.6
55.7
55.8
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
64.9
127.1
174.2
184.8
193.7
200.3
204.6
205.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
1.2
0.8
0.3
0.7
Industry
19.3
38.5
49.1
52.3
54.7
56.2
57.1
57.1
29.7
30.3
28.2
28.3
28.2
28.1
27.9
27.8
3.8
1.2
0.7
0.2
0.6
Transportation
14.6
26.3
33.4
35.1
35.8
35.8
35.1
33.5
22.5
20.7
19.2
19.0
18.5
17.9
17.1
16.3
3.4
1.0
0.2
-0.7
0.0
Others
24.3
37.3
44.3
47.4
49.7
51.7
53.2
53.8
37.5
29.4
25.4
25.7
25.6
25.8
26.0
26.1
2.4
1.4
0.9
0.4
0.8
Non-energy
6.7
25.0
47.3
50.0
53.5
56.6
59.3
61.3
10.4
19.7
27.2
27.1
27.6
28.3
29.0
29.8
8.1
1.1
1.2
0.8
1.0
Total
64.9
127.1
174.2
184.8
193.7
200.3
204.6
205.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
1.2
0.8
0.3
0.7
Coal
11.7
9.1
11.8
12.4
12.4
12.2
11.9
11.4
18.1
7.1
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.1
5.8
5.6
0.0
1.0
-0.1
-0.6
-0.1
Oil
43.7
79.9
90.3
93.7
96.8
98.5
98.9
97.9
67.3
62.8
51.8
50.7
50.0
49.2
48.4
47.6
2.9
0.7
0.5
-0.1
0.3
Natural gas
0.7
10.9
20.5
22.9
24.7
26.3
27.6
28.4
1.0
8.6
11.8
12.4
12.8
13.1
13.5
13.8
14.6
2.3
1.4
0.8
1.3
Electricity
8.1
22.6
42.6
46.2
49.8
53.0
55.9
57.8
12.5
17.8
24.5
25.0
25.7
26.5
27.3
28.1
6.9
1.6
1.4
0.9
1.2
Heat
0.0
3.3
4.4
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.7
0.0
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
-
1.4
0.6
-0.5
0.3
Others
0.7
1.3
4.7
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.4
5.5
1.1
1.0
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
7.6
1.3
0.8
0.2
0.6
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Republic of Korea (BAU)


367
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
377
710
1,267
1,460
1,683
1,898
2,101
2,272
5.0
2.9
2.7
1.8
2.4
Population (millions of people)
42.9
47.0
51.1
52.0
52.6
52.9
52.8
52.2
0.7
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.1
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 8.80 
 15.09 
 24.80 
 28.09 
 32.0 
 35.8 
 39.8 
 43.5 
4.2
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 2.17 
 4.00 
 5.34 
 5.45 
 5.49 
 5.46 
 5.44 
 5.35 
3.7
0.4
0.0
-0.2
0.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 246 
 265 
 215 
 194 
 172 
 152 
 137 
 123 
-0.5
-2.0
-2.4
-2.1
-2.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 172 
 179 
 138 
 126 
 113 
 102 
 92 
 85 
-0.9
-1.8
-2.1
-1.8
-1.9
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 173 
 166 
 125 
 105 
 84 
 74 
 64 
 59 
-1.3
-3.6
-3.4
-2.3
-3.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.70 
 0.63 
 0.58 
 0.54 
 0.49 
 0.49 
 0.47 
 0.48 
-0.7
-1.5
-1.0
-0.2
-0.8
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 3 
 12 
 21 
 24 
 26 
 28 
 29 
 29 
7.6
2.6
1.5
0.5
1.3
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.079 
 0.256 
 0.411 
 0.460 
 0.496 
 0.523 
 0.546 
 0.560 
6.8
2.3
1.3
0.7
1.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
92.9
188.2
272.7
283.4
288.7
288.9
287.5
279.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
0.8
0.2
-0.3
0.1
Coal
25.4
41.9
80.8
74.4
65.9
65.0
61.0
61.8
27.3
22.3
29.6
26.2
22.8
22.5
21.2
22.1
4.7
-1.6
-1.3
-0.5
-1.1
Oil
49.7
99.0
102.7
104.9
106.0
106.1
104.7
102.2
53.5
52.6
37.7
37.0
36.7
36.7
36.4
36.6
2.9
0.4
0.1
-0.4
0.0
Natural gas
2.7
17.0
39.3
41.4
42.3
45.5
47.4
51.2
2.9
9.0
14.4
14.6
14.7
15.7
16.5
18.3
11.3
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.1
Nuclear
13.8
28.4
42.9
53.4
61.9
56.8
56.8
44.6
14.8
15.1
15.7
18.8
21.4
19.7
19.7
16.0
4.7
4.5
0.6
-2.4
0.2
Hydro
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-4.3
11.8
0.0
0.0
2.3
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-
2.0
1.6
1.0
1.4
Others
0.7
1.4
6.6
8.9
12.0
15.0
17.1
19.1
0.8
0.8
2.4
3.1
4.2
5.2
5.9
6.8
9.1
6.2
5.3
2.5
4.4
Biomass
0.7
1.3
5.0
5.4
5.7
5.9
5.9
5.9
0.8
0.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
8.1
1.8
0.8
0.0
0.7
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.0
0.6
2.3
4.8
7.4
9.4
11.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.8
1.6
2.6
3.3
4.1
18.1
28.7
12.7
4.5
12.3
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
17.1
4.4
3.4
0.4
2.4
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
105.4
288.5
549.2
585.8
619.1
647.1
670.1
681.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.8
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.9
Coal
17.7
111.4
236.6
214.1
190.0
193.4
186.6
198.8
16.8
38.6
43.1
36.5
30.7
29.9
27.8
29.2
10.9
-2.0
-1.0
0.3
-0.7
Oil
18.9
34.6
12.5
10.0
7.6
6.3
4.7
3.3
17.9
12.0
2.3
1.7
1.2
1.0
0.7
0.5
-1.6
-4.5
-4.5
-6.2
-5.2
Natural gas
9.6
29.5
122.9
122.8
120.0
134.0
141.5
164.7
9.1
10.2
22.4
21.0
19.4
20.7
21.1
24.2
10.7
0.0
0.9
2.1
1.2
Nuclear
52.9
109.0
164.8
204.9
237.6
217.8
217.8
171.1
50.2
37.8
30.0
35.0
38.4
33.7
32.5
25.1
4.7
4.5
0.6
-2.4
0.2
Hydro
6.4
4.0
2.1
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
6.0
1.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
-4.3
11.8
0.0
0.0
2.3
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.1
10.4
30.3
60.2
91.8
115.8
139.8
0.0
0.0
1.9
5.2
9.7
14.2
17.3
20.5
44.7
24.0
11.7
4.3
11.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.5
40.4
79.6
71.4
63.1
64.1
61.9
66.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
-2.2
-1.1
0.3
-0.7
Coal
6.0
27.1
56.4
49.4
42.5
42.0
39.4
40.8
47.7
66.9
70.8
69.2
67.5
65.6
63.6
61.6
9.4
-2.6
-1.6
-0.3
-1.3
Oil
4.5
7.6
4.1
3.0
2.1
1.7
1.1
0.8
36.0
18.9
5.2
4.2
3.4
2.6
1.9
1.2
-0.4
-6.0
-5.8
-7.4
-6.5
Natural gas
2.0
5.8
19.1
19.0
18.4
20.4
21.4
24.7
16.3
14.2
24.0
26.6
29.2
31.8
34.5
37.2
9.4
-0.2
0.7
1.9
1.0
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
65.2
118.2
158.7
152.6
142.1
140.6
134.1
133.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.6
-0.8
-0.8
-0.5
-0.7
Coal
27.4
45.3
86.7
79.6
70.3
69.2
64.7
65.4
42.1
38.3
54.6
52.2
49.5
49.2
48.3
49.0
4.7
-1.7
-1.4
-0.6
-1.1
Oil
36.0
62.0
46.8
46.5
44.6
42.2
38.9
35.2
55.3
52.4
29.5
30.4
31.4
30.0
29.0
26.4
1.1
-0.2
-1.0
-1.8
-1.1
Natural gas
1.7
10.9
25.2
26.6
27.1
29.2
30.4
32.8
2.7
9.2
15.9
17.4
19.1
20.7
22.7
24.6
11.3
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.1
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
31.7
37.3
40.2
41.8
43.3
44.8
46.2
47.6
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.7
Coal
25.4
35.4
36.1
37.3
38.4
39.6
40.7
41.9
1.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Oil
35.9
39.0
26.1
28.3
30.5
32.6
34.8
37.0
-1.3
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.4
Natural gas
40.6
44.0
55.3
55.7
56.1
56.5
57.0
57.4
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
64.9
127.1
174.2
183.3
189.6
193.1
194.3
192.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.4
Industry
19.3
38.5
49.1
51.8
53.5
54.3
54.3
53.2
29.7
30.3
28.2
28.3
28.2
28.1
27.9
27.6
3.8
1.1
0.5
-0.2
0.3
Transportation
14.6
26.3
33.4
34.7
34.6
33.5
31.4
28.9
22.5
20.7
19.2
18.9
18.3
17.3
16.2
15.0
3.4
0.8
-0.4
-1.4
-0.6
Others
24.3
37.3
44.3
46.7
47.9
48.8
49.4
49.2
37.5
29.4
25.4
25.5
25.3
25.2
25.4
25.6
2.4
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.4
Non-energy
6.7
25.0
47.3
50.0
53.5
56.6
59.3
61.3
10.4
19.7
27.2
27.3
28.2
29.3
30.5
31.8
8.1
1.1
1.2
0.8
1.0
Total
64.9
127.1
174.2
183.3
189.6
193.1
194.3
192.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.4
Coal
11.7
9.1
11.8
12.3
12.2
12.0
11.5
10.9
18.1
7.1
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.2
5.9
5.7
0.0
0.9
-0.3
-0.9
-0.3
Oil
43.7
79.9
90.3
93.2
94.9
95.2
94.2
92.0
67.3
62.8
51.8
50.8
50.1
49.3
48.5
47.7
2.9
0.6
0.2
-0.3
0.1
Natural gas
0.7
10.9
20.5
22.7
24.1
25.3
26.3
26.7
1.0
8.6
11.8
12.4
12.7
13.1
13.5
13.9
14.6
2.1
1.1
0.5
1.1
Electricity
8.1
22.6
42.6
45.4
48.0
50.2
52.1
53.0
12.5
17.8
24.5
24.8
25.3
26.0
26.8
27.5
6.9
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.9
Heat
0.0
3.3
4.4
4.6
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.4
0.0
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
-
1.2
0.3
-0.8
0.1
Others
0.7
1.3
4.7
5.0
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6
1.1
1.0
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
7.6
1.4
1.1
0.0
0.7
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Republic of Korea (APS)


368
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
1.1
2.0
5.1
7.2
10.0
13.3
17.6
23.1
6.3
7.1
6.4
5.7
6.2
Population (millions of people)
4.2
5.4
6.7
7.2
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.3
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.3
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.8 
 1.00 
 1.3 
 1.6 
 2.0 
 2.5 
4.4
5.5
5.0
4.4
4.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 1.4 
 1.87 
 2.37 
 2.26 
 2.17 
 3.97 
6.7
5.6
1.9
5.8
4.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,080 
 818 
 1,862 
 1,872 
 1,825 
 1,394 
 1,076 
 1,592 
2.2
0.1
-2.9
1.3
-0.6
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 984 
 743 
 1,791 
 1,581 
 1,492 
 1,145 
 888 
 1,279 
2.4
-2.5
-3.2
1.1
-1.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 180 
 148 
 1,636 
 1,890 
 1,933 
 1,459 
 1,111 
 1,771 
9.2
2.9
-2.6
2.0
0.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.2 
 0.2 
 0.9 
 1.01 
 1.06 
 1.05 
 1.03 
 1.11 
6.9
2.8
0.4
0.6
0.9
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.20
1.65
9.49
13.42
18.18
18.55
18.95
36.81
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.6
7.2
3.3
7.1
5.6
Coal
0.00
0.00
7.04
11.64
16.76
16.80
16.82
36.32
0.0
0.0
74.3
86.8
92.2
90.6
88.7
98.7
-
10.6
3.7
8.0
6.8
Oil
0.16
0.28
0.99
1.09
1.21
1.35
1.50
1.68
13.6
17.2
10.4
8.1
6.7
7.3
7.9
4.6
7.5
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.1
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.07
0.30
1.33
2.42
1.11
1.86
1.86
2.30
5.9
17.9
14.1
18.0
6.1
10.0
9.8
6.2
12.5
12.6
-2.6
2.1
2.2
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.97
1.07
0.12
-1.73
-0.91
-1.46
-1.22
-3.49
80.5
65.0
1.3
-12.9
-5.0
-7.9
-6.5
-9.5
-8.0
-270.3
-1.7
9.1
-214.4
Biomass
1.01
1.30
1.30
1.39
1.48
1.56
1.66
1.75
84.6
78.5
13.7
10.4
8.1
8.4
8.7
4.8
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
-0.05
-0.22
-1.18
-3.12
-2.38
-3.02
-2.88
-5.24
-4.1
-13.6
-12.5
-23.3
-13.1
-16.3
-15.2
-14.2
13.6
21.4
-0.3
5.7
6.1
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.82
3.44
17.76
41.12
33.63
42.32
42.32
71.86
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
13.1
18.3
0.3
5.4
5.7
Coal
0.00
0.00
2.26
13.02
20.71
20.71
20.71
45.17
0.0
0.0
12.7
31.7
61.6
48.9
48.9
62.9
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Oil
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.82
3.44
15.51
28.09
12.92
21.61
21.61
26.69
100.0
100.0
87.3
68.3
38.4
51.1
51.1
37.1
12.5
12.6
-2.6
2.1
2.2
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.00
0.00
0.56
3.20
5.09
5.09
5.09
11.10
-
-
100
100
100
100
100
100
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.56
3.20
5.09
5.09
5.09
11.10
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Oil
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.2
0.3
8.3
13.6
19.3
19.4
19.6
40.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
16.1
10.2
3.7
7.7
6.6
Coal
0.0
0.0
7.5
12.6
18.3
18.3
18.3
39.5
0.0
0.0
90.1
93.3
94.7
94.2
93.6
96.6
-
11.0
3.8
8.0
6.9
Oil
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.4
100.0
100.0
9.9
6.7
5.3
5.8
6.4
3.4
5.8
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.1
Natural gas
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
-
-
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Coal
-
-
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.09
1.50
9.12
11.34
14.87
15.24
15.64
29.58
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.9
4.4
3.0
6.9
4.8
Industry
0.04
0.06
6.70
8.66
11.90
11.95
11.97
25.47
3.6
4.2
73.5
76.4
80.0
78.4
76.5
86.1
22.9
5.3
3.3
7.9
5.5
Transportation
0.16
0.27
0.97
1.08
1.20
1.33
1.49
1.66
14.7
17.7
10.6
9.5
8.1
8.8
9.5
5.6
7.5
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
Others
0.89
1.17
1.44
1.59
1.77
1.96
2.18
2.44
81.7
78.1
15.8
14.1
11.9
12.8
13.9
8.2
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.1
Non-energy
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Total
1.09
1.50
9.12
11.34
14.87
15.24
15.64
29.58
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.9
4.4
3.0
6.9
4.8
Coal
0.00
0.00
6.49
8.44
11.67
11.71
11.73
25.22
0.0
0.0
71.1
74.5
78.5
76.9
75.0
85.3
-
5.4
3.3
8.0
5.6
Oil
0.16
0.27
0.99
1.09
1.21
1.35
1.50
1.68
14.9
18.1
10.8
9.6
8.2
8.9
9.6
5.7
7.5
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.1
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.01
0.06
0.34
0.41
0.50
0.61
0.75
0.93
1.3
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.4
4.0
4.8
3.1
13.6
3.7
4.0
4.2
4.1
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.92
1.17
1.30
1.39
1.48
1.56
1.66
1.75
83.8
78.2
14.3
12.3
9.9
10.3
10.6
5.9
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Lao People’s Democratic Republic (BAU)


369
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
1.1
2.0
5.1
7.2
10.0
13.3
17.6
23.1
6.3
7.1
6.4
5.7
6.2
Population (millions of people)
4.2
5.4
6.7
7.2
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.3
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.3
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.8 
 1.00 
 1.3 
 1.6 
 2.0 
 2.5 
4.4
5.5
5.0
4.4
4.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 1.4 
 1.73 
 2.20 
 2.11 
 2.04 
 3.72 
6.7
4.0
2.0
5.8
3.9
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,080 
 818 
 1,862 
 1,729 
 1,693 
 1,299 
 1,010 
 1,491 
2.2
-1.5
-2.8
1.4
-0.9
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 984 
 743 
 1,791 
 1,425 
 1,345 
 1,032 
 800 
 1,152 
2.4
-4.5
-3.2
1.1
-1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 180 
 148 
 1,636 
 1,754 
 1,800 
 1,358 
 1,034 
 1,650 
9.2
1.4
-2.5
2.0
0.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.2 
 0.2 
 0.9 
 1.01 
 1.06 
 1.05 
 1.02 
 1.11 
6.9
2.9
0.3
0.6
0.9
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.20
1.65
9.49
12.40
16.86
17.29
17.79
34.47
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.6
5.5
3.4
7.1
5.3
Coal
0.00
0.00
7.04
10.80
15.60
15.63
15.64
33.80
0.0
0.0
74.3
87.1
92.5
90.4
87.9
98.1
-
8.9
3.8
8.0
6.5
Oil
0.16
0.28
0.99
0.99
1.10
1.23
1.37
1.53
13.6
17.2
10.4
8.0
6.5
7.1
7.7
4.4
7.5
0.0
2.2
2.2
1.8
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.07
0.30
1.33
2.47
1.11
1.86
1.86
2.30
5.9
17.9
14.1
19.9
6.6
10.7
10.4
6.7
12.5
13.1
-2.8
2.1
2.2
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.97
1.07
0.12
-1.86
-0.94
-1.43
-1.08
-3.15
80.5
65.0
1.3
-15.0
-5.6
-8.2
-6.1
-9.1
-8.0
-272.8
-2.6
8.3
-213.9
Biomass
1.01
1.30
1.30
1.26
1.34
1.42
1.50
1.58
84.6
78.5
13.7
10.1
7.9
8.2
8.4
4.6
1.0
-0.7
1.2
1.1
0.8
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
-0.05
-0.22
-1.18
-3.12
-2.28
-2.84
-2.58
-4.74
-4.1
-13.6
-12.5
-25.2
-13.5
-16.4
-14.5
-13.7
13.6
21.4
-0.9
5.2
5.7
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.82
3.44
17.76
41.77
33.63
42.32
42.32
71.86
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
13.1
18.6
0.1
5.4
5.7
Coal
0.00
0.00
2.26
13.02
20.71
20.71
20.71
45.17
0.0
0.0
12.7
31.2
61.6
48.9
48.9
62.9
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Oil
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.82
3.44
15.51
28.74
12.92
21.61
21.61
26.69
100.0
100.0
87.3
68.8
38.4
51.1
51.1
37.1
12.5
13.1
-2.8
2.1
2.2
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.00
0.00
0.56
3.20
5.09
5.09
5.09
11.10
-
-
100
100
100
100
100
100
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.56
3.20
5.09
5.09
5.09
11.10
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Oil
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.2
0.3
8.3
12.6
17.9
18.1
18.2
38.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
16.1
8.6
3.7
7.8
6.3
Coal
0.0
0.0
7.5
11.8
17.0
17.1
17.1
36.9
0.0
0.0
90.1
93.5
94.9
94.4
93.7
96.7
-
9.4
3.8
8.0
6.6
Oil
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.3
100.0
100.0
9.9
6.5
5.1
5.6
6.3
3.3
5.8
0.0
2.2
2.2
1.8
Natural gas
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
-
-
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Coal
-
-
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.09
1.50
9.12
10.22
13.40
13.73
14.10
26.65
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.9
2.3
3.0
6.9
4.4
Industry
0.04
0.06
6.70
7.80
10.72
10.76
10.78
22.94
3.6
4.2
73.5
76.4
80.0
78.3
76.5
86.1
22.9
3.1
3.3
7.9
5.0
Transportation
0.16
0.27
0.97
0.98
1.09
1.21
1.35
1.51
14.7
17.7
10.6
9.5
8.1
8.8
9.6
5.7
7.5
0.1
2.2
2.2
1.8
Others
0.89
1.17
1.44
1.44
1.59
1.76
1.96
2.20
81.7
78.1
15.8
14.0
11.9
12.8
13.9
8.2
1.9
-0.1
2.1
2.2
1.7
Non-energy
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-0.1
0.9
0.9
0.7
Total
1.09
1.50
9.12
10.22
13.40
13.73
14.10
26.65
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.9
2.3
3.0
6.9
4.4
Coal
0.00
0.00
6.49
7.60
10.51
10.54
10.55
22.70
0.0
0.0
71.1
74.4
78.4
76.8
74.9
85.2
-
3.2
3.3
8.0
5.1
Oil
0.16
0.27
0.99
0.99
1.10
1.23
1.37
1.53
14.9
18.1
10.8
9.7
8.2
8.9
9.7
5.7
7.5
0.0
2.2
2.2
1.8
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.01
0.06
0.34
0.37
0.45
0.55
0.67
0.83
1.3
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.4
4.0
4.8
3.1
13.6
1.6
4.0
4.2
3.6
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.92
1.17
1.30
1.26
1.34
1.42
1.50
1.58
83.8
78.2
14.3
12.3
10.0
10.3
10.6
5.9
1.4
-0.7
1.2
1.1
0.8
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Lao People’s Democratic Republic (APS)


370
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
81.8
162.5
330.0
403.1
487.1
582.9
679.0
774.9
5.7
4.1
3.8
2.9
3.5
Population (millions of people)
18.0
23.2
30.7
33.0
34.9
36.6
38.2
39.6
2.2
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 4.5 
 7.0 
 10.7 
 12.23 
 14.0 
 15.9 
 17.8 
 19.6 
3.5
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 1.1 
 2.0 
 2.3 
 2.70 
 3.07 
 3.49 
 3.92 
 4.37 
3.0
3.3
2.6
2.3
2.6
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 243 
 287 
 214 
 221 
 219 
 219 
 221 
 223 
-0.5
0.6
-0.1
0.2
0.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 153 
 173 
 150 
 159 
 160 
 160 
 161 
 161 
-0.1
1.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 166 
 189 
 157 
 148 
 148 
 147 
 146 
 150 
-0.2
-1.3
0.0
0.2
-0.2
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.7 
 0.7 
 0.7 
 0.67 
 0.67 
 0.67 
 0.66 
 0.67 
0.3
-1.9
0.0
0.0
-0.4
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
19.84
46.72
70.58
88.92
106.84
127.91
149.80
172.74
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.2
4.7
3.7
3.1
3.6
Coal
1.36
2.31
17.37
20.72
23.76
27.92
32.59
39.00
6.8
4.9
24.6
23.3
22.2
21.8
21.8
22.6
10.7
3.6
3.0
3.4
3.3
Oil
11.35
19.09
27.34
35.03
41.84
49.60
57.01
64.26
57.2
40.9
38.7
39.4
39.2
38.8
38.1
37.2
3.6
5.1
3.5
2.6
3.5
Natural gas
6.80
24.72
24.60
30.34
37.96
47.07
56.87
66.11
34.3
52.9
34.9
34.1
35.5
36.8
38.0
38.3
5.3
4.3
4.5
3.5
4.0
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.34
0.60
1.22
1.45
2.01
2.05
2.05
2.05
1.7
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.2
5.2
3.6
3.5
0.0
2.1
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
-0.01
0.00
0.05
1.38
1.26
1.27
1.30
1.32
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.5
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
-209.3
97.4
-0.8
0.4
14.4
Biomass
0.00
0.00
0.21
1.42
1.42
1.42
1.42
1.42
0.0
0.0
0.3
1.6
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.8
-
46.8
0.0
0.0
8.0
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
7.7
0.0
0.0
1.5
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.39
0.41
0.43
0.45
0.47
0.50
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
-
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Electricity
-0.01
0.00
-0.57
-0.48
-0.62
-0.63
-0.63
-0.63
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
20.9
-3.4
2.7
0.0
0.4
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
23.02
66.65
150.37
182.25
222.77
267.54
316.47
368.13
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.8
3.9
3.9
3.2
3.6
Coal
2.93
7.69
63.47
76.93
87.34
102.95
121.73
145.83
12.7
11.5
42.2
42.2
39.2
38.5
38.5
39.6
13.1
3.9
3.0
3.5
3.4
Oil
10.56
3.01
1.74
1.84
1.56
1.54
1.61
1.60
45.9
4.5
1.2
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
-7.0
1.1
-1.8
0.4
-0.3
Natural gas
5.54
48.99
69.96
81.04
104.92
133.74
163.83
191.40
24.1
73.5
46.5
44.5
47.1
50.0
51.8
52.0
10.7
3.0
5.1
3.6
4.1
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
3.99
6.97
14.17
16.92
23.43
23.81
23.79
23.79
17.3
10.5
9.4
9.3
10.5
8.9
7.5
6.5
5.2
3.6
3.5
0.0
2.1
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
1.02
5.51
5.51
5.51
5.51
5.51
0.0
0.0
0.7
3.0
2.5
2.1
1.7
1.5
-
40.0
0.0
0.0
7.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.16
13.86
31.09
35.39
42.07
50.85
60.79
71.98
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.4
2.6
3.7
3.5
3.4
Coal
0.81
1.50
15.59
18.44
21.00
24.67
28.86
34.78
15.7
10.8
50.2
52.1
49.9
48.5
47.5
48.3
12.5
3.4
3.0
3.5
3.3
Oil
2.99
0.78
0.45
0.48
0.41
0.40
0.42
0.42
57.9
5.7
1.5
1.4
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
-7.3
1.1
-1.8
0.4
-0.3
Natural gas
1.36
11.58
15.04
16.48
20.67
25.78
31.51
36.78
26.4
83.6
48.4
46.6
49.1
50.7
51.8
51.1
10.1
1.8
4.6
3.6
3.6
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
13.6
30.7
52.0
59.5
72.0
86.0
98.8
116.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.5
2.8
3.7
3.1
3.3
Coal
1.4
2.6
18.5
18.6
21.8
25.1
26.8
33.7
10.3
8.5
35.6
31.2
30.4
29.2
27.2
29.0
10.9
0.1
3.0
3.0
2.4
Oil
10.3
15.7
20.6
26.6
31.9
38.0
44.0
49.9
75.7
51.1
39.7
44.7
44.4
44.2
44.6
42.9
2.8
5.2
3.6
2.8
3.6
Natural gas
1.9
12.4
12.9
14.4
18.2
22.9
27.9
32.6
14.0
40.4
24.7
24.1
25.3
26.6
28.3
28.1
7.9
2.2
4.8
3.6
3.8
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
31.7
37.0
37.4
38.8
39.6
40.3
40.6
40.5
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.3
Coal
31.0
44.2
35.0
35.9
35.8
35.9
36.3
36.1
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
Oil
30.4
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
35.0
36.4
40.0
42.3
43.7
44.6
44.7
44.8
0.5
1.1
0.5
0.0
0.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.52
28.13
49.52
64.30
77.93
93.48
109.31
125.14
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
5.4
3.8
3.0
3.8
Industry
5.30
11.41
13.97
16.78
20.65
24.94
29.20
33.29
42.3
40.6
28.2
26.1
26.5
26.7
26.7
26.6
4.0
3.7
4.0
2.9
3.5
Transportation
4.76
10.50
21.10
27.34
33.10
39.73
46.38
53.03
38.0
37.3
42.6
42.5
42.5
42.5
42.4
42.4
6.1
5.3
3.8
2.9
3.8
Others
1.62
3.97
8.53
10.84
13.25
16.04
19.08
22.29
13.0
14.1
17.2
16.9
17.0
17.2
17.5
17.8
6.9
4.9
4.0
3.3
3.9
Non-energy
0.84
2.25
5.93
9.34
10.93
12.76
14.64
16.53
6.7
8.0
12.0
14.5
14.0
13.7
13.4
13.2
8.1
9.5
3.2
2.6
4.2
Total
12.52
28.13
49.52
64.30
77.93
93.48
109.31
125.14
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
5.4
3.8
3.0
3.8
Coal
0.51
0.99
1.78
2.28
2.76
3.25
3.73
4.22
4.1
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
5.1
5.1
3.6
2.7
3.5
Oil
9.19
18.01
26.39
33.74
40.36
47.87
55.26
62.52
73.5
64.0
53.3
52.5
51.8
51.2
50.6
50.0
4.3
5.0
3.6
2.7
3.5
Natural gas
1.09
3.86
9.56
13.86
17.29
21.29
25.36
29.33
8.7
13.7
19.3
21.6
22.2
22.8
23.2
23.4
9.1
7.7
4.4
3.3
4.6
Electricity
1.72
5.26
11.40
14.01
17.08
20.62
24.49
28.57
13.7
18.7
23.0
21.8
21.9
22.1
22.4
22.8
7.9
4.2
3.9
3.3
3.7
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.39
0.41
0.43
0.45
0.47
0.50
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
-
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Malaysia (BAU)


371
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
81.8
162.5
330.0
403.1
487.1
582.9
679.0
774.9
5.7
4.1
3.8
2.9
3.5
Population (millions of people)
18.0
23.2
30.7
33.0
34.9
36.6
38.2
39.6
2.2
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 4.5 
 7.0 
 10.7 
 12.23 
 14.0 
 15.9 
 17.8 
 19.6 
3.5
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 1.1 
 2.0 
 2.3 
 2.50 
 2.76 
 3.07 
 3.37 
 3.67 
3.0
1.7
2.1
1.8
1.9
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 243 
 287 
 214 
 204 
 197 
 193 
 189 
 187 
-0.5
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
-0.5
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 153 
 173 
 150 
 153 
 152 
 151 
 151 
 150 
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 166 
 189 
 157 
 132 
 127 
 123 
 118 
 117 
-0.2
-3.5
-0.7
-0.5
-1.2
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.7 
 0.7 
 0.7 
 0.64 
 0.64 
 0.64 
 0.62 
 0.62 
0.3
-2.6
-0.1
-0.2
-0.7
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
19.84
46.72
70.58
82.26
96.05
112.34
128.61
145.21
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.2
3.1
3.2
2.6
2.9
Coal
1.36
2.31
17.37
17.54
18.55
20.42
23.04
25.31
6.8
4.9
24.6
21.3
19.3
18.2
17.9
17.4
10.7
0.2
1.5
2.2
1.5
Oil
11.35
19.09
27.34
33.85
40.28
47.62
54.57
61.37
57.2
40.9
38.7
41.2
41.9
42.4
42.4
42.3
3.6
4.4
3.5
2.6
3.3
Natural gas
6.80
24.72
24.60
27.04
32.62
39.43
45.86
51.04
34.3
52.9
34.9
32.9
34.0
35.1
35.7
35.1
5.3
1.9
3.8
2.6
3.0
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.16
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.34
0.60
1.22
1.51
2.12
2.16
2.18
2.18
1.7
1.3
1.7
1.8
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.5
5.2
4.4
3.7
0.1
2.4
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
-0.01
0.00
0.05
2.32
2.48
2.71
2.95
3.16
0.0
0.0
0.1
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
-209.3
119.0
1.6
1.5
18.4
Biomass
0.00
0.00
0.21
1.60
1.61
1.63
1.68
1.68
0.0
0.0
0.3
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.2
-
50.3
0.2
0.2
8.7
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.20
0.36
0.39
0.40
0.40
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
-
54.0
6.9
0.2
12.1
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.39
1.07
1.25
1.45
1.65
1.85
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
-
22.5
3.1
2.5
6.5
Electricity
-0.01
0.00
-0.57
-0.55
-0.74
-0.77
-0.77
-0.78
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-0.7
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
20.9
-0.8
3.3
0.1
1.2
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
23.02
66.65
150.37
166.57 200.49 236.20 273.90
312.18
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.8
2.1
3.6
2.8
3.0
Coal
2.93
7.69
63.47
68.08
74.10
84.83
100.03
113.92
12.7
11.5
42.2
40.9
37.0
35.9
36.5
36.5
13.1
1.4
2.2
3.0
2.4
Oil
10.56
3.01
1.74
1.91
1.60
1.61
1.66
1.65
45.9
4.5
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
-7.0
1.9
-1.7
0.3
-0.2
Natural gas
5.54
48.99
69.96
70.89
90.18
114.12
136.18
152.28
24.1
73.5
46.5
42.6
45.0
48.3
49.7
48.8
10.7
0.3
4.9
2.9
3.2
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.28
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.7
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
3.99
6.97
14.17
17.58
24.61
25.17
25.32
25.32
17.3
10.5
9.4
10.6
12.3
10.7
9.2
8.1
5.2
4.4
3.7
0.1
2.4
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
1.02
8.12
10.00
10.48
10.71
10.73
0.0
0.0
0.7
4.9
5.0
4.4
3.9
3.4
-
51.3
2.6
0.2
9.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.16
13.86
31.09
29.66
32.64
37.31
42.40
46.00
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.4
-0.9
2.3
2.1
1.6
Coal
0.81
1.50
15.59
15.47
16.10
17.58
19.84
21.77
15.7
10.8
50.2
52.1
49.3
47.1
46.8
47.3
12.5
-0.2
1.3
2.2
1.3
Oil
2.99
0.78
0.45
0.50
0.42
0.42
0.43
0.43
57.9
5.7
1.5
1.7
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.9
-7.3
1.9
-1.7
0.3
-0.2
Natural gas
1.36
11.58
15.04
13.70
16.13
19.31
22.12
23.81
26.4
83.6
48.4
46.2
49.4
51.8
52.2
51.7
10.1
-1.8
3.5
2.1
1.9
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
13.6
30.7
52.0
53.0
61.8
71.6
80.1
90.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.5
0.4
3.0
2.4
2.2
Coal
1.4
2.6
18.5
15.2
16.4
17.2
17.2
19.8
10.3
8.5
35.6
28.6
26.5
24.1
21.4
21.9
10.9
-3.9
1.3
1.4
0.3
Oil
10.3
15.7
20.6
25.6
30.6
36.4
42.0
47.5
75.7
51.1
39.7
48.3
49.5
50.8
52.5
52.6
2.8
4.4
3.6
2.7
3.4
Natural gas
1.9
12.4
12.9
12.2
14.8
18.0
20.9
23.0
14.0
40.4
24.7
23.1
23.9
25.1
26.1
25.5
7.9
-1.0
3.9
2.5
2.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
31.7
37.0
37.4
40.8
43.7
46.2
48.3
50.1
0.7
1.8
1.2
0.8
1.2
Coal
31.0
44.2
35.0
37.9
39.6
41.5
43.4
45.0
0.5
1.6
0.9
0.8
1.0
Oil
30.4
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
35.0
36.4
40.0
44.5
48.1
50.8
52.9
55.0
0.5
2.1
1.3
0.8
1.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.52
28.13
49.52
61.72
74.20
88.29
102.39
116.25
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
4.5
3.6
2.8
3.5
Industry
5.30
11.41
13.97
15.22
18.38
21.78
25.02
27.96
42.3
40.6
28.2
24.7
24.8
24.7
24.4
24.1
4.0
1.7
3.7
2.5
2.8
Transportation
4.76
10.50
21.10
27.34
33.10
39.73
46.38
53.03
38.0
37.3
42.6
44.3
44.6
45.0
45.3
45.6
6.1
5.3
3.8
2.9
3.8
Others
1.62
3.97
8.53
9.83
11.80
14.01
16.35
18.73
13.0
14.1
17.2
15.9
15.9
15.9
16.0
16.1
6.9
2.9
3.6
2.9
3.2
Non-energy
0.84
2.25
5.93
9.34
10.93
12.76
14.64
16.53
6.7
8.0
12.0
15.1
14.7
14.5
14.3
14.2
8.1
9.5
3.2
2.6
4.2
Total
12.52
28.13
49.52
61.72
74.20
88.29
102.39
116.25
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
4.5
3.6
2.8
3.5
Coal
0.51
0.99
1.78
2.07
2.46
2.84
3.20
3.54
4.1
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
5.1
3.1
3.2
2.3
2.8
Oil
9.19
18.01
26.39
32.54
38.80
45.87
52.81
59.61
73.5
64.0
53.3
52.7
52.3
52.0
51.6
51.3
4.3
4.3
3.5
2.7
3.3
Natural gas
1.09
3.86
9.56
13.34
16.49
20.12
23.74
27.23
8.7
13.7
19.3
21.6
22.2
22.8
23.2
23.4
9.1
6.9
4.2
3.1
4.3
Electricity
1.72
5.26
11.40
12.70
15.21
18.01
20.99
24.02
13.7
18.7
23.0
20.6
20.5
20.4
20.5
20.7
7.9
2.2
3.6
2.9
3.0
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.39
1.07
1.25
1.45
1.65
1.85
0.0
0.0
0.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
-
22.5
3.1
2.5
6.5
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Malaysia (APS)


372
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
8
16
71
100
139
185
242
316
9.1
7.2
6.3
5.5
6.2
Population (millions of people)
41
46
52
55
57
59
61
63
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.7
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.2 
 0.3 
 1.3 
 1.83 
 2.4 
 3.1 
 4.0 
 5.1 
8.0
6.3
5.5
4.9
5.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.43 
 0.46 
 0.52 
 0.58 
 0.67 
1.5
2.4
2.0
2.5
2.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,333 
 803 
 281 
 234 
 189 
 167 
 148 
 132 
-6.0
-3.6
-3.3
-2.3
-3.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 1,173 
 718 
 251 
 206 
 170 
 145 
 127 
 112 
-6.0
-3.9
-3.4
-2.6
-3.2
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 140 
 150 
 93 
 89 
 75 
 81 
 76 
 74 
-1.6
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-0.9
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.1 
 0.2 
 0.3 
 0.38 
 0.40 
 0.49 
 0.52 
 0.56 
4.7
2.9
2.5
1.4
2.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
10.68
12.84
19.85
23.39
26.23
30.94
35.72
41.79
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.5
3.3
2.8
3.1
3.0
Coal
0.07
0.32
0.38
0.48
0.59
3.92
4.77
6.84
0.6
2.5
1.9
2.1
2.2
12.7
13.4
16.4
7.1
5.3
23.2
5.7
12.3
Oil
0.73
1.97
5.47
7.11
8.87
10.85
13.18
16.00
6.8
15.4
27.6
30.4
33.8
35.1
36.9
38.3
8.4
5.4
4.3
4.0
4.4
Natural gas
0.76
1.20
3.08
4.48
4.59
3.84
4.92
5.77
7.1
9.3
15.5
19.1
17.5
12.4
13.8
13.8
5.8
7.8
-1.5
4.2
2.5
Nuclear
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.10
0.16
0.81
0.90
1.38
1.15
1.41
1.58
1.0
1.3
4.1
3.9
5.3
3.7
4.0
3.8
8.6
2.2
2.5
3.2
2.7
Geothermal
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.02
9.19
10.11
10.41
10.80
11.18
11.43
11.60
84.5
71.5
50.9
44.5
41.2
36.1
32.0
27.8
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.6
Biomass
9.02
9.19
10.11
10.40
10.76
11.12
11.36
11.51
84.5
71.5
50.9
44.5
41.0
35.9
31.8
27.6
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.5
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.09
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
-
-
32.6
3.2
-
Biofuels
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.48
5.12
15.97
23.62
31.50
40.33
50.48
63.00
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
8.2
5.5
4.6
5.6
Coal
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.20
14.54
17.91
26.61
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.6
36.0
35.5
42.2
-100.0
-
61.6
6.2
-
Oil
0.27
0.69
0.06
0.10
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
10.9
13.5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.2
11.7
-100.0
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.97
2.54
6.51
12.59
13.69
9.30
12.30
13.74
39.3
49.5
40.8
53.3
43.5
23.1
24.4
21.8
7.9
14.1
-3.0
4.0
3.0
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
1.19
1.89
9.40
10.49
16.02
13.37
16.43
18.35
48.1
37.0
58.9
44.4
50.8
33.2
32.5
29.1
8.6
2.2
2.5
3.2
2.7
Geothermal
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
-
-
0.00
0.33
1.53
3.13
3.84
4.29
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
4.9
7.8
7.6
6.8
-
-
25.2
3.2
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.51
0.94
2.03
3.33
3.16
5.29
6.70
8.97
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
10.4
4.7
5.4
6.1
Coal
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.05
3.29
4.05
6.02
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.6
62.2
60.5
67.1
-100.0
-
60.3
6.2
-
Oil
0.06
0.19
0.01
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.5
20.6
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.8
11.7
-100.0
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.43
0.74
2.02
3.28
3.10
2.00
2.64
2.95
85.1
79.4
99.3
98.4
98.0
37.8
39.5
32.9
6.3
10.2
-4.8
4.0
1.5
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.1
2.4
6.6
8.9
10.4
15.1
18.5
23.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.3
6.3
5.4
4.5
5.2
Coal
0.1
0.3
0.4067
0.5255
0.6389
4.2362
5.1606
7.3975
8.9
12.5
6.2
5.9
6.1
28.1
28.0
31.6
5.8
5.3
23.2
5.7
12.3
Oil
0.6
1.4
4.3403
5.6188
6.9917
8.5462
10.371
12.588
50.0
58.3
66.0
63.0
67.0
56.7
56.2
53.9
8.5
5.3
4.3
3.9
4.4
Natural gas
0.5
0.7
1.8262
2.7749
2.812
2.28
2.9211
3.3896
41.1
29.2
27.8
31.1
26.9
15.1
15.8
14.5
5.7
8.7
-1.9
4.0
2.5
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
21.7
29.6
27.8
33.0
37.9
38.8
38.8
38.7
1.0
3.5
1.6
0.0
1.3
Coal
28.7
-
-
35.2
35.2
38.0
38.0
38.0
-
-
0.8
0.0
-
Oil
36.4
30.8
32.7
32.7
32.7
-
-
-
-0.4
0.0
-
-
-
Natural gas
19.3
29.3
27.7
33.0
38.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
1.5
3.5
1.9
0.0
1.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
9.400
11.477
17.734
20.557
23.574
26.922 30.740 35.290
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
Industry
0.39
1.15
2.17
3.05
3.86
4.76
5.79
7.01
4.2
10.0
12.3
14.8
16.4
17.7
18.8
19.9
7.1
7.0
4.6
3.9
4.8
Transportation
0.44
1.16
3.53
4.88
6.42
8.19
10.29
12.86
4.7
10.1
19.9
23.8
27.2
30.4
33.5
36.4
8.6
6.7
5.3
4.6
5.3
Others
8.47
9.08
11.76
12.33
12.92
13.50
14.09
14.71
90.1
79.1
66.3
60.0
54.8
50.2
45.8
41.7
1.3
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Non-energy
0.09
0.09
0.27
0.30
0.37
0.46
0.57
0.71
1.0
0.8
1.5
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.0
4.2
2.2
4.6
4.4
4.0
Total
9.40
11.48
17.73
20.56
23.57
26.92
30.74
35.29
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
Coal
0.05
0.32
0.38
0.46
0.54
0.63
0.72
0.82
0.5
2.8
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
8.3
4.0
3.3
2.7
3.2
Oil
0.59
1.53
5.43
7.02
8.76
10.74
13.05
15.85
6.2
13.3
30.6
34.2
37.2
39.9
42.4
44.9
9.3
5.3
4.3
4.0
4.4
Natural gas
0.23
0.32
0.71
0.92
1.21
1.57
1.99
2.51
2.4
2.8
4.0
4.5
5.1
5.8
6.5
7.1
4.7
5.4
5.5
4.8
5.2
Electricity
0.15
0.28
1.15
1.83
2.44
3.12
3.93
4.93
1.6
2.4
6.5
8.9
10.3
11.6
12.8
14.0
8.5
9.7
5.5
4.7
6.0
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
8.39
9.02
10.07
10.34
10.62
10.86
11.05
11.18
89.2
78.6
56.8
50.3
45.1
40.4
36.0
31.7
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.4
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Myanmar (BAU)


373
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
8.0
16.0
70.5
101.2
140.8
188.6
244.2
316.2
9.1
7.5
6.4
5.3
6.2
Population (millions of people)
40.6
46.1
52.4
57.1
60.1
63.0
66.0
66.0
1.0
1.7
1.0
0.5
0.9
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.2 
 0.3 
 1.3 
 1.77 
 2.3 
 3.0 
 3.7 
 4.8 
8.0
5.6
5.4
4.8
5.2
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.40 
 0.41 
 0.41 
 0.44 
 0.50 
1.5
1.0
0.2
2.1
1.1
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,333 
 803 
 281 
 225 
 173 
 136 
 120 
 105 
-6.0
-4.4
-4.9
-2.6
-3.9
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 1,173 
 718 
 251 
 197 
 156 
 127 
 111 
 98 
-6.0
-4.7
-4.3
-2.5
-3.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 140 
 150 
 93 
 84 
 66 
 53 
 50 
 46 
-1.6
-2.0
-4.6
-1.4
-2.8
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.1 
 0.2 
 0.3 
 0.37 
 0.38 
 0.39 
 0.41 
 0.44 
4.7
2.5
0.3
1.2
1.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
10.68
12.84
19.85
22.77
24.35
25.70
29.35
33.15
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.5
2.8
1.2
2.6
2.1
Coal
0.07
0.32
0.38
0.46
0.53
0.59
0.68
0.80
0.6
2.5
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
7.1
4.3
2.4
3.1
3.1
Oil
0.73
1.97
5.47
6.83
8.06
9.31
11.30
13.70
6.8
15.4
27.6
30.0
33.1
36.2
38.5
41.3
8.4
4.5
3.2
3.9
3.7
Natural gas
0.76
1.20
3.08
4.27
4.01
3.39
4.33
4.89
7.1
9.3
15.5
18.7
16.5
13.2
14.7
14.7
5.8
6.8
-2.3
3.7
1.9
Nuclear
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.10
0.16
0.81
0.95
1.30
1.47
1.80
2.23
1.0
1.3
4.1
4.2
5.3
5.7
6.1
6.7
8.6
3.3
4.5
4.2
4.1
Geothermal
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.02
9.19
10.11
10.26
10.45
10.94
11.24
11.53
84.5
71.5
50.9
45.0
42.9
42.6
38.3
34.8
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.5
Biomass
9.02
9.19
10.11
10.25
10.41
10.74
11.00
11.23
84.5
71.5
50.9
45.0
42.8
41.8
37.5
33.9
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.4
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.20
0.24
0.30
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.8
0.8
0.9
-
-
49.9
4.2
-
Biofuels
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.48
5.12
15.97
23.48
28.40
32.62
40.61
50.40
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
8.0
3.3
4.4
4.7
Coal
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.19
0.26
0.37
0.52
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
-100.0
-
8.6
7.3
-
Oil
0.27
0.69
0.06
0.09
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
10.9
13.5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.2
10.5
-100.0
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.97
2.54
6.51
11.93
11.60
8.57
11.24
13.93
39.3
49.5
40.8
50.8
40.8
26.3
27.7
27.6
7.9
12.9
-3.3
5.0
3.1
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
1.19
1.89
9.40
11.04
15.11
17.14
20.88
25.89
48.1
37.0
58.9
47.0
53.2
52.5
51.4
51.4
8.6
3.3
4.5
4.2
4.1
Geothermal
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
-
-
0.00
0.31
1.45
6.66
8.11
10.05
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.3
5.1
20.4
20.0
19.9
-
-
35.8
4.2
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.51
0.94
2.03
3.16
2.68
1.81
2.37
2.50
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
9.2
-5.4
3.3
0.8
Coal
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.10
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.5
2.9
3.0
4.0
-100.0
-
6.7
6.5
-
Oil
0.06
0.19
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.5
20.6
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.8
10.5
-100.0
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.43
0.74
2.02
3.11
2.62
1.75
2.30
2.40
85.1
79.4
99.3
98.4
98.0
97.1
97.0
96.0
6.3
9.0
-5.6
3.2
0.7
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.1
2.4
6.6
8.5
9.4
9.9
12.1
14.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.3
5.4
1.5
3.8
3.2
Coal
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.9
8.9
12.5
6.2
5.9
6.1
6.4
6.1
6.0
5.8
4.3
2.4
3.1
3.1
Oil
0.6
1.4
4.3
5.4
6.3
7.3
8.9
10.7
50.0
58.3
66.0
63.2
67.8
73.5
73.0
74.4
8.5
4.4
3.1
3.9
3.7
Natural gas
0.5
0.7
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.0
2.5
2.8
41.1
29.2
27.8
31.0
26.1
20.1
20.9
19.6
5.7
7.7
-2.8
3.5
1.8
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
21.7
29.6
27.8
33.0
38.0
42.0
42.1
49.8
1.0
3.5
2.4
1.7
2.4
Coal
28.7
-
-
35.2
42.0
42.0
45.0
45.0
-
-
1.8
0.7
-
Oil
36.4
30.8
32.7
32.7
32.7
-
-
-
-0.4
0.0
-
-
-
Natural gas
19.3
29.3
27.7
33.0
38.0
42.0
42.0
50.0
1.5
3.5
2.4
1.8
2.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
9.40
11.48
17.73
19.97
21.97
23.93
27.17
31.02
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
2.4
1.8
2.6
2.3
Industry
0.39
1.15
 2.17 
 2.92 
 3.49 
 4.03 
 4.88 
 5.89 
4.2
10.0
12.3
14.6
15.9
16.8
18.0
19.0
7.1
6.1
3.3
3.9
4.1
Transportation
0.44
1.16
 3.53 
 4.69 
 5.83 
 7.01 
 8.79 
 10.98 
4.7
10.1
19.9
23.5
26.5
29.3
32.3
35.4
8.6
5.8
4.1
4.6
4.6
Others
8.47
9.08
 11.76 
 12.07 
 12.28 
 12.43 
 12.92 
 13.44 
90.1
79.1
66.3
60.4
55.9
51.9
47.6
43.3
1.3
0.5
0.3
0.8
0.5
Non-energy
0.09
0.09
 0.27 
 0.30 
 0.37 
 0.46 
 0.57 
 0.71 
1.0
0.8
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
4.2
2.2
4.6
4.4
4.0
Total
9.40
11.48
17.73
19.97
21.97
23.93
27.17
31.02
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
2.4
1.8
2.6
2.3
Coal
0.05
0.32
0.38
0.44
0.49
0.53
0.61
0.70
0.5
2.8
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
8.3
3.1
2.0
2.7
2.5
Oil
0.59
1.53
5.43
6.74
7.96
9.20
11.17
13.55
6.2
13.3
30.6
33.7
36.2
38.5
41.1
43.7
9.3
4.4
3.2
3.9
3.7
Natural gas
0.23
0.32
0.71
0.88
1.11
1.37
1.75
2.20
2.4
2.8
4.0
4.4
5.1
5.7
6.4
7.1
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.8
4.7
Electricity
0.15
0.28
1.15
1.72
2.12
2.50
3.14
3.94
1.6
2.4
6.5
8.6
9.7
10.4
11.6
12.7
8.5
8.4
3.8
4.7
5.0
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
8.39
9.02
10.07
10.19
10.28
10.32
10.50
10.62
89.2
78.6
56.8
51.0
46.8
43.1
38.7
34.2
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Myanmar (APS)


374
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
85
114
169
196
219
238
258
276
2.8
3.0
2.0
1.5
2.0
Population (millions of people)
3.3
3.9
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.3
5.5
1.3
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.7
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 25.42 
 29.60 
 36.80 
 40.76 
 43.7 
 45.9 
 48.2 
 50.4 
1.5
2.1
1.2
0.9
1.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.85 
 4.43 
 4.4881 
 4.53 
 4.59 
 4.63 
 4.55 
 4.4892 
0.6
0.2
0.2
-0.3
0.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 152 
 150 
 122 
 111 
 105 
 101 
 95 
 89 
-0.9
-1.9
-1.0
-1.2
-1.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 115 
 113 
 83 
 74 
 68 
 62 
 57 
 53 
-1.3
-2.2
-1.7
-1.6
-1.8
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 74 
 71 
 52 
 44 
 39 
 35 
 32 
 29 
-1.4
-3.3
-2.3
-1.9
-2.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.49 
 0.47 
 0.43 
 0.40 
 0.37 
 0.35 
 0.33 
 0.32 
-0.5
-1.5
-1.3
-0.7
-1.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 2 
 3 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 5 
2.9
1.6
0.9
0.6
0.9
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.538 
 0.672 
 0.799 
 0.827 
 0.836 
 0.838 
 0.840 
 0.842 
1.6
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.8
17.1
20.6
21.8
23.0
24.0
24.3
24.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.9
1.1
1.0
0.2
0.7
Coal
1.2
1.1
1.4
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
9.2
6.5
6.6
3.7
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
0.6
-10.3
-1.1
-0.9
-2.9
Oil
3.5
5.7
6.8
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.5
27.4
33.4
32.8
31.8
30.1
28.5
27.4
26.2
2.7
0.4
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2
Natural gas
3.9
5.1
4.1
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.4
30.2
29.6
19.8
21.2
19.9
18.3
18.1
17.8
0.2
2.5
-0.5
0.0
0.3
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
15.5
12.3
10.2
9.5
9.1
8.9
8.9
8.9
0.2
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
Geothermal
1.5
1.9
4.9
5.8
7.0
8.2
8.7
9.1
11.5
11.4
23.6
26.8
30.5
34.3
35.6
37.0
4.9
3.7
3.5
1.0
2.5
Others
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
6.2
6.9
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.4
2.3
1.6
1.1
0.6
1.0
Biomass
0.7
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
5.6
6.4
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.9
4.8
1.7
1.5
0.2
-0.2
0.3
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
7.2
1.2
3.9
2.3
2.7
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
2.6
4.7
2.1
2.0
2.6
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.3
39.2
44.2
48.0
51.1
53.5
55.7
57.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.3
1.7
1.1
0.8
1.1
Coal
0.7
1.5
1.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
3.9
4.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
-37.8
-100.0
-
-100.0
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-8.8
4.1
-0.9
0.6
0.7
Natural gas
5.7
9.6
6.9
10.5
10.6
9.8
10.2
10.4
17.7
24.4
15.5
21.9
20.8
18.3
18.4
18.0
0.7
8.9
-0.7
0.6
1.7
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
23.2
24.4
24.5
24.1
24.4
24.8
25.2
25.5
71.9
62.3
55.5
50.1
47.8
46.4
45.2
44.3
0.2
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
Geothermal
2.1
2.9
7.9
9.5
11.4
13.5
14.2
14.9
6.6
7.4
17.8
19.7
22.4
25.2
25.5
25.9
5.4
3.8
3.6
1.0
2.6
Others
0.6
0.8
3.1
3.8
4.6
5.4
6.1
6.8
1.8
2.0
6.9
7.9
9.0
10.1
10.9
11.7
7.0
4.3
3.6
2.3
3.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.4
2.3
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.7
1.7
-1.3
0.0
-0.2
Coal
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.9
16.7
27.1
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
-37.7
-100.0
-
-100.0
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-100.0
-
-1.9
-1.0
-
Natural gas
1.2
1.9
1.2
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
87.7
83.3
72.9
97.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
-0.1
7.8
-1.1
0.0
1.1
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
6.2
8.1
8.8
8.6
8.5
8.3
8.1
7.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
Coal
1.3
1.2
1.5
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
20.5
14.7
16.8
10.0
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.9
0.6
-10.3
-1.1
-0.9
-2.9
Oil
2.7
4.5
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.1
42.8
55.8
61.2
63.7
64.5
65.3
65.0
64.7
2.8
0.4
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2
Natural gas
2.3
2.4
1.9
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
36.7
29.4
21.9
26.3
26.2
25.4
26.0
26.5
-0.7
3.3
-0.7
-0.1
0.3
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
38.8
42.0
45.2
50.9
52.5
53.2
54.9
56.2
0.6
2.4
0.4
0.6
0.9
Coal
33.9
34.8
35.8
35.5
-
-
-
-
0.2
-0.1
-
-
-
Oil
14.1
-
-
25.5
26.9
28.2
30.8
33.0
-
-
1.0
1.6
-
Natural gas
39.6
43.4
48.7
51.3
52.5
53.2
54.9
56.2
0.8
1.0
0.4
0.6
0.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
9.7
12.9
14.1
14.6
14.8
14.9
14.8
14.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.7
0.2
-0.1
0.2
Industry
3.6
4.3
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
37.0
32.9
30.8
31.1
30.9
30.7
30.6
30.5
0.8
0.9
0.1
-0.2
0.1
Transportation
3.0
4.1
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.7
30.4
31.4
34.2
33.7
33.3
32.9
32.5
32.0
2.0
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.1
Others
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.1
26.2
23.0
24.9
25.5
26.1
26.7
27.2
27.7
1.3
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.6
Non-energy
0.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
6.4
12.7
10.0
9.8
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.8
3.4
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.0
Total
9.7
12.9
14.1
14.6
14.8
14.9
14.8
14.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.7
0.2
-0.1
0.2
Coal
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
6.9
4.0
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.7
-0.4
0.7
-0.3
-1.1
-0.4
Oil
4.0
5.3
6.2
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.1
5.9
41.4
41.0
44.1
43.6
43.0
42.2
41.2
40.2
1.8
0.5
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2
Natural gas
1.8
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
18.5
23.3
19.1
18.3
17.9
17.7
17.7
17.7
1.6
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
Electricity
2.4
2.9
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.4
25.0
22.8
23.9
25.1
26.3
27.4
28.7
30.0
1.3
1.7
1.1
0.8
1.1
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.8
1.2
1.204
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.221
8.1
9.0
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.5
8.3
1.7
1.1
0.0
-0.4
0.1
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
New Zealand (BAU)


375
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
85
114
169
196
219
238
258
276
2.8
3.0
2.0
1.5
2.0
Population (millions of people)
3
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
1.3
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.7
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 25.42 
 29.60 
 36.80 
 40.76 
 43.7 
 45.9 
 48.2 
 50.4 
1.5
2.1
1.2
0.9
1.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.85 
 4.43 
 4.49 
 4.60 
 4.59 
 4.53 
 4.37 
 4.24 
0.6
0.5
-0.2
-0.6
-0.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 152 
 150 
 122 
 113 
 105 
 99 
 91 
 84 
-0.9
-1.5
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 115 
 113 
 83 
 74 
 66 
 59 
 53 
 48 
-1.3
-2.4
-2.2
-2.1
-2.2
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 74 
 71 
 52 
 42 
 36 
 31 
 26 
 23 
-1.4
-4.1
-3.0
-3.1
-3.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.49 
 0.47 
 0.43 
 0.37 
 0.34 
 0.31 
 0.29 
 0.27 
-0.5
-2.7
-1.7
-1.6
-1.8
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 2 
 3 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 5 
2.9
1.6
0.9
0.6
0.9
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.538 
 0.672 
 0.799 
 0.827 
 0.836 
 0.838 
 0.840 
 0.842 
1.6
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.8
17.1
20.6
22.2
23.0
23.5
23.4
23.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.9
1.4
0.6
-0.1
0.5
Coal
1.2
1.1
1.4
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
9.2
6.5
6.6
3.5
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
0.6
-10.7
-1.1
-1.3
-3.2
Oil
3.5
5.7
6.8
6.8
6.6
6.2
5.7
5.2
27.4
33.4
32.8
30.8
28.8
26.5
24.5
22.4
2.7
0.2
-0.9
-1.8
-1.0
Natural gas
3.9
5.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.4
30.2
29.6
19.8
19.0
17.5
15.9
15.4
14.8
0.2
0.6
-1.1
-0.9
-0.7
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
15.5
12.3
10.2
9.3
9.1
9.1
9.3
9.4
0.2
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
Geothermal
1.5
1.9
4.9
6.7
7.8
8.9
9.3
9.8
11.5
11.4
23.6
30.1
33.8
37.7
40.0
42.3
4.9
6.5
2.9
1.1
2.9
Others
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
6.2
6.9
6.9
7.3
7.6
7.8
8.1
8.5
2.3
2.6
1.2
0.7
1.3
Biomass
0.7
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
5.6
6.4
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.7
1.7
1.4
0.0
-0.7
0.0
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.3
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.4
7.2
4.3
3.6
2.5
3.3
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
2.6
11.7
5.2
3.5
5.8
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.3
39.2
44.2
47.6
50.0
51.7
53.4
54.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.3
1.5
0.8
0.6
0.9
Coal
0.7
1.5
1.9
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
3.9
4.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
-40.9
-100.0
-
-100.0
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-8.8
-1.2
-2.6
-1.7
-2.0
Natural gas
5.7
9.6
6.9
8.1
7.6
6.3
6.0
5.3
17.7
24.4
15.5
17.1
15.3
12.3
11.2
9.7
0.7
3.5
-2.5
-1.7
-1.0
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
23.2
24.4
24.5
24.1
24.4
24.8
25.2
25.5
71.9
62.3
55.5
50.6
48.9
47.9
47.1
46.6
0.2
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
Geothermal
2.1
2.9
7.9
10.9
12.7
14.5
15.4
16.2
6.6
7.4
17.8
22.9
25.4
28.1
28.8
29.6
5.4
6.7
2.9
1.1
2.9
Others
0.6
0.8
3.1
4.3
5.2
6.1
6.9
7.7
1.8
2.0
6.9
9.1
10.4
11.8
12.9
14.0
7.0
7.2
3.4
2.4
3.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.4
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.7
-3.5
-3.1
-2.3
-2.9
Coal
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.9
16.7
27.1
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
-40.9
-100.0
-
-100.0
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-100.0
-
-3.7
-3.3
-
Natural gas
1.2
1.9
1.2
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
87.7
83.3
72.9
97.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
-0.1
2.3
-2.9
-2.3
-1.6
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
6.2
8.1
8.8
8.3
7.9
7.4
6.8
6.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.4
-1.2
-1.1
-1.7
-1.4
Coal
1.3
1.2
1.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
20.5
14.7
16.8
10.2
9.8
10.1
10.3
10.5
0.6
-10.7
-1.1
-1.3
-3.2
Oil
2.7
4.5
5.4
5.4
5.2
4.9
4.5
4.1
42.8
55.8
61.2
65.6
66.3
66.8
66.1
65.5
2.8
0.1
-0.9
-1.9
-1.1
Natural gas
2.3
2.4
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
36.7
29.4
21.9
24.3
23.9
23.1
23.6
24.0
-0.7
0.8
-1.6
-1.3
-1.0
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
38.8
42.0
45.2
51.1
52.9
53.7
55.6
57.2
0.6
2.5
0.5
0.6
0.9
Coal
33.9
34.8
35.8
35.7
-
-
-
-
0.2
-0.1
-
-
-
Oil
14.1
-
-
25.6
27.0
28.5
31.2
33.5
-
-
1.1
1.6
-
Natural gas
39.6
43.4
48.7
51.4
52.9
53.7
55.6
57.2
0.8
1.1
0.4
0.6
0.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
9.7
12.9
14.1
14.5
14.4
14.1
13.7
13.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.5
-0.2
-0.7
-0.3
Industry
3.6
4.3
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.1
37.0
32.9
30.8
31.2
31.2
31.3
31.5
31.5
0.8
0.7
-0.2
-0.6
-0.2
Transportation
3.0
4.1
4.8
4.9
4.7
4.5
4.2
3.9
30.4
31.4
34.2
33.6
32.8
31.8
30.5
29.3
2.0
0.2
-0.8
-1.5
-0.9
Others
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
26.2
23.0
24.9
25.4
26.0
26.7
27.5
28.3
1.3
0.9
0.3
-0.1
0.2
Non-energy
0.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
6.4
12.7
10.0
9.9
10.0
10.2
10.5
10.9
3.4
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.0
Total
9.7
12.9
14.1
14.5
14.4
14.1
13.7
13.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.5
-0.2
-0.7
-0.3
Coal
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
6.9
4.0
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.0
3.8
-0.4
0.5
-0.6
-1.5
-0.7
Oil
4.0
5.3
6.2
6.3
6.1
5.7
5.2
4.7
41.4
41.0
44.1
43.3
42.1
40.4
38.2
35.9
1.8
0.2
-0.9
-1.9
-1.1
Natural gas
1.8
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
18.5
23.3
19.1
18.4
18.1
18.1
18.4
18.7
1.6
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
Electricity
2.4
2.9
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.1
4.2
25.0
22.8
23.9
25.1
26.4
28.0
29.9
31.9
1.3
1.5
0.9
0.6
0.9
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
8.1
9.0
8.6
8.9
9.1
9.3
9.5
9.7
1.7
1.3
0.2
-0.3
0.2
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
New Zealand (APS)


376
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
94.5
125.3
266.1
368.0
504.1
674.6
881.7
1,146.9
4.2
6.7
6.2
5.4
6.0
Population (millions of people)
61.9
78.0
101.7
109.6
118.0
127.2
137.0
147.6
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 1.5 
 1.6 
 2.6 
 3.36 
 4.3 
 5.3 
 6.4 
 7.8 
2.2
5.1
4.7
3.9
4.5
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.4 
 0.5 
 0.5 
 0.54 
 0.63 
 0.68 
 0.73 
 0.78 
0.4
2.9
2.4
1.4
2.1
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 275 
 299 
 178 
 161 
 147 
 128 
 114 
 101 
-1.7
-2.1
-2.2
-2.4
-2.3
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 208 
 191 
 111 
 102 
 91 
 79 
 71 
 65 
-2.5
-1.7
-2.5
-2.0
-2.1
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 304 
 455 
 358 
 321 
 307 
 282 
 260 
 237 
0.7
-2.1
-1.3
-1.7
-1.6
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 1.1 
 1.5 
 2.0 
 2.00 
 2.09 
 2.20 
 2.28 
 2.35 
2.4
0.0
0.9
0.7
0.6
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
25.95
37.42
47.49
59.09
74.03
86.64
100.49
115.81
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
4.5
3.9
2.9
3.6
Coal
0.73
4.11
11.11
14.50
20.88
26.19
31.52
36.45
2.8
11.0
23.4
24.5
28.2
30.2
31.4
31.5
11.5
5.5
6.1
3.4
4.9
Oil
10.92
15.73
16.55
20.34
23.75
27.68
32.56
38.82
42.1
42.0
34.8
34.4
32.1
31.9
32.4
33.5
1.7
4.2
3.1
3.4
3.5
Natural gas
-
0.01
3.00
2.92
3.92
5.42
7.01
9.49
0.0
0.0
6.3
4.9
5.3
6.3
7.0
8.2
-
-0.6
6.4
5.8
4.7
Nuclear
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.52
0.67
0.75
0.99
1.35
1.40
1.47
1.52
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.4
5.8
3.6
0.8
2.9
Geothermal
4.70
10.00
9.50
11.85
14.69
16.14
17.38
18.36
18.1
26.7
20.0
20.1
19.8
18.6
17.3
15.9
2.9
4.5
3.1
1.3
2.7
Others
9.08
6.90
6.59
8.48
9.43
9.81
10.54
11.17
35.0
18.4
13.9
14.4
12.7
11.3
10.5
9.6
-1.3
5.2
1.5
1.3
2.1
Biomass
9.07
6.89
6.07
7.63
8.43
8.73
9.35
9.87
34.9
18.4
12.8
12.9
11.4
10.1
9.3
8.5
-1.6
4.7
1.4
1.2
2.0
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.08
0.30
0.40
0.42
0.45
0.47
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
-
31.9
3.3
1.1
7.5
Biofuels
0.01
0.01
0.45
0.55
0.60
0.66
0.74
0.84
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
15.8
4.2
1.8
2.5
2.5
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
25.84
45.25
82.41
98.50
134.65
161.47
187.57
215.33
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.7
3.6
5.1
2.9
3.9
Coal
1.93
16.66
36.69
44.71
65.02
80.03
94.15
105.0
7.5
36.8
44.5
45.4
48.3
49.6
50.2
48.7
12.5
4.0
6.0
2.7
4.3
Oil
12.38
9.14
5.86
5.04
6.17
6.34
6.46
7.4
47.9
20.2
7.1
5.1
4.6
3.9
3.4
3.4
-2.9
-3.0
2.3
1.5
0.9
Natural gas
-
0.02
18.88
18.09
24.14
32.99
42.01
55.8
0.0
0.0
22.9
18.4
17.9
20.4
22.4
25.9
-
-0.9
6.2
5.4
4.4
Nuclear
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
6.06
7.80
8.67
11.51
15.74
16.32
17.05
17.6
23.5
17.2
10.5
11.7
11.7
10.1
9.1
8.2
1.4
5.8
3.6
0.8
2.9
Geothermal
5.47
11.63
11.04
13.79
17.08
18.77
20.21
21.4
21.2
25.7
13.4
14.0
12.7
11.6
10.8
9.9
2.9
4.5
3.1
1.3
2.7
Others
0.00
0.00
1.28
5.36
6.49
7.02
7.67
8.2
0.0
0.0
1.6
5.4
4.8
4.3
4.1
3.8
-
33.2
2.7
1.6
7.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3.10
5.89
13.62
15.37
21.73
26.95
31.97
37.08
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.1
2.4
5.8
3.2
4.1
Coal
0.56
3.78
9.26
11.31
16.44
20.24
23.81
26.5
18.0
64.3
68.0
73.6
75.7
75.1
74.5
71.6
11.9
4.1
6.0
2.7
4.3
Oil
2.54
2.10
1.41
1.24
1.52
1.56
1.59
1.8
82.0
35.6
10.3
8.1
7.0
5.8
5.0
4.9
-2.3
-2.5
2.3
1.5
1.0
Natural gas
-
0.01
2.95
2.83
3.77
5.16
6.57
8.7
0.0
0.1
21.7
18.4
17.4
19.1
20.5
23.5
-
-0.9
6.2
5.4
4.4
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
28.7
57.0
95.1
118.1
154.7
190.3
229.0
271.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.9
4.4
4.9
3.6
4.3
Coal
4.4
18.0
45.9
57.6
82.9
104.0
125.1
144.6
15.3
31.5
48.3
48.8
53.6
54.6
54.6
53.2
9.8
4.6
6.1
3.4
4.7
Oil
24.3
39.0
42.2
53.6
62.5
73.6
87.5
104.8
84.7
68.4
44.3
45.4
40.4
38.7
38.2
38.6
2.2
4.9
3.2
3.6
3.7
Natural gas
-
0.0
7.0
6.8
9.2
12.7
16.5
22.3
0.0
0.0
7.4
5.8
6.0
6.7
7.2
8.2
-
-0.6
6.4
5.8
4.7
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
39.7
37.7
38.8
37.9
37.7
38.1
38.4
39.0
-0.1
-0.4
0.0
0.2
0.0
Coal
29.8
37.9
34.1
34.0
34.0
34.0
34.0
34.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
41.9
37.5
35.8
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-0.6
-0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.1
Natural gas
-
16.6
55.0
55.0
55.0
55.0
55.0
55.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
19.65
23.92
29.62
37.60
45.71
53.58
63.00
74.23
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.7
4.9
3.6
3.3
3.7
Industry
4.66
5.35
7.43
9.80
12.46
15.61
19.38
24.10
23.7
22.4
25.1
26.1
27.3
29.1
30.8
32.5
1.9
5.7
4.8
4.4
4.8
Transportation
4.52
8.10
10.61
12.68
14.33
16.53
19.37
22.95
23.0
33.9
35.8
33.7
31.4
30.9
30.7
30.9
3.5
3.6
2.7
3.3
3.1
Others
10.25
10.19
10.53
13.93
17.57
19.90
22.50
25.20
52.1
42.6
35.6
37.0
38.4
37.1
35.7
33.9
0.1
5.8
3.6
2.4
3.6
Non-energy
0.23
0.27
1.05
1.19
1.35
1.54
1.75
1.99
1.2
1.1
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
6.3
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
Total
19.65
23.92
29.62
37.60
45.71
53.58
63.00
74.23
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.7
4.9
3.6
3.3
3.7
Coal
0.61
0.77
2.29
3.20
4.44
5.95
7.71
9.9
3.1
3.2
7.7
8.5
9.7
11.1
12.2
13.3
5.4
6.9
6.4
5.2
6.0
Oil
7.92
13.01
15.01
19.01
22.12
26.00
30.85
36.9
40.3
54.4
50.7
50.5
48.4
48.5
49.0
49.7
2.6
4.8
3.2
3.6
3.7
Natural gas
-
0.00
0.05
0.09
0.15
0.26
0.44
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
1.0
-
11.8
11.4
11.5
11.5
Electricity
1.82
3.14
5.83
7.71
10.54
12.63
14.68
16.8
9.3
13.1
19.7
20.5
23.0
23.6
23.3
22.7
4.8
5.7
5.1
2.9
4.3
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.30
7.00
6.44
7.60
8.46
8.73
9.32
9.8
47.3
29.3
21.7
20.2
18.5
16.3
14.8
13.3
-1.5
3.4
1.4
1.2
1.7
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Philippines (BAU)


377
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
94.5
125.3
266.1
368.0
504.1
674.6
881.7
1,146.9
4.2
6.7
6.2
5.4
6.0
Population (millions of people)
61.9
78.0
101.7
109.6
118.0
127.2
137.0
147.6
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 1.5 
 1.6 
 2.6 
 3.36 
 4.3 
 5.3 
 6.4 
 7.8 
2.2
5.1
4.7
3.9
4.5
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.4 
 0.5 
 0.5 
 0.49 
 0.51 
 0.56 
 0.61 
 0.64 
0.4
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 275 
 299 
 178 
 147 
 119 
 105 
 95 
 83 
-1.7
-3.8
-3.3
-2.4
-3.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 208 
 191 
 111 
 95 
 75 
 67 
 61 
 56 
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
-1.8
-2.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 304 
 455 
 358 
 271 
 198 
 193 
 189 
 167 
0.7
-5.4
-3.3
-1.4
-3.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 1.1 
 1.5 
 2.0 
 1.84 
 1.66 
 1.83 
 1.99 
 2.01 
2.4
-1.7
-0.1
1.0
0.0
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
25.95
37.42
47.49
54.11
60.10
71.16
83.44
95.05
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
Coal
0.73
4.11
11.11
11.74
12.03
16.58
21.78
24.17
2.8
11.0
23.4
21.7
20.0
23.3
26.1
25.4
11.5
1.1
3.5
3.8
3.2
Oil
10.92
15.73
16.55
18.45
17.87
21.73
26.64
31.63
42.1
42.0
34.8
34.1
29.7
30.5
31.9
33.3
1.7
2.2
1.6
3.8
2.6
Natural gas
-
0.01
3.00
2.04
2.13
3.00
4.20
4.90
0.0
0.0
6.3
3.8
3.5
4.2
5.0
5.2
-
-7.4
3.9
5.0
2.0
Nuclear
-
-
-
0.00
0.42
1.12
1.49
3.76
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
1.6
1.8
4.0
-
-
106.4
12.8
-
Hydro
0.52
0.67
0.75
0.96
1.33
1.33
1.33
2.08
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.8
2.2
1.9
1.6
2.2
1.4
5.3
3.3
4.6
4.2
Geothermal
4.70
10.00
9.50
12.24
16.37
17.11
17.14
17.14
18.1
26.7
20.0
22.6
27.2
24.0
20.5
18.0
2.9
5.2
3.4
0.0
2.4
Others
9.08
6.90
6.59
8.67
9.95
10.28
10.87
11.38
35.0
18.4
13.9
16.0
16.6
14.5
13.0
12.0
-1.3
5.6
1.7
1.0
2.2
Biomass
9.07
6.89
6.07
7.45
8.27
8.48
8.97
9.39
34.9
18.4
12.8
13.8
13.8
11.9
10.8
9.9
-1.6
4.2
1.3
1.0
1.8
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.08
0.63
1.13
1.18
1.18
1.18
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.2
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.2
-
52.7
6.4
0.0
11.6
Biofuels
0.01
0.01
0.45
0.59
0.55
0.62
0.71
0.81
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
15.8
5.8
0.5
2.7
2.4
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
25.84
45.25
82.41
88.65
100.98
125.14
150.05
172.26
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.7
1.5
3.5
3.2
3.0
Coal
1.93
16.66
36.69
35.75
32.51
45.90
60.71
62.2
7.5
36.8
44.5
40.3
32.2
36.7
40.5
36.1
12.5
-0.5
2.5
3.1
2.1
Oil
12.38
9.14
5.86
4.64
3.47
4.63
6.13
6.6
47.9
20.2
7.1
5.2
3.4
3.7
4.1
3.8
-2.9
-4.6
0.0
3.6
0.5
Natural gas
-
0.02
18.88
13.64
13.93
19.29
26.46
29.3
0.0
0.0
22.9
15.4
13.8
15.4
17.6
17.0
-
-6.3
3.5
4.3
1.8
Nuclear
-
-
-
-
1.61
4.31
5.70
14.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.6
3.4
3.8
8.4
-
-
-
12.8
-
Hydro
6.06
7.80
8.67
11.22
15.45
15.45
15.45
24.2
23.5
17.2
10.5
12.7
15.3
12.3
10.3
14.0
1.4
5.3
3.3
4.6
4.2
Geothermal
5.47
11.63
11.04
14.24
19.04
19.90
19.93
19.9
21.2
25.7
13.4
16.1
18.9
15.9
13.3
11.6
2.9
5.2
3.4
0.0
2.4
Others
0.00
0.00
1.28
9.15
14.97
15.65
15.67
15.7
0.0
0.0
1.6
10.3
14.8
12.5
10.4
9.1
-
48.2
5.5
0.0
10.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3.10
5.89
13.62
11.63
10.42
14.51
19.33
20.02
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.1
-3.1
2.2
3.3
1.6
Coal
0.56
3.78
9.26
8.54
7.59
10.63
14.07
14.3
18.0
64.3
68.0
73.4
72.8
73.3
72.8
71.2
11.9
-1.6
2.2
3.0
1.7
Oil
2.54
2.10
1.41
1.14
0.85
1.14
1.51
1.6
82.0
35.6
10.3
9.8
8.2
7.8
7.8
8.1
-2.3
-4.1
0.0
3.6
0.6
Natural gas
-
0.01
2.95
1.96
1.98
2.74
3.75
4.1
0.0
0.1
21.7
16.8
19.0
18.9
19.4
20.7
-
-7.9
3.4
4.2
1.4
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
28.7
57.0
95.1
99.6
99.6
130.0
166.4
191.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.9
0.9
2.7
3.9
2.8
Coal
4.4
18.0
45.9
46.5
47.8
65.9
86.6
96.0
15.3
31.5
48.3
46.7
47.9
50.7
52.0
50.2
9.8
0.3
3.5
3.8
3.0
Oil
24.3
39.0
42.2
48.3
46.9
57.0
70.0
83.8
84.7
68.4
44.3
48.5
47.1
43.9
42.1
43.8
2.2
2.7
1.7
3.9
2.8
Natural gas
-
0.0
7.0
4.8
5.0
7.0
9.9
11.5
0.0
0.0
7.4
4.8
5.0
5.4
5.9
6.0
-
-7.4
3.9
5.0
2.0
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
39.7
37.7
38.8
39.9
41.2
41.4
41.5
42.1
-0.1
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.3
Coal
29.8
37.9
34.1
36.0
36.8
37.1
37.1
37.5
0.5
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.4
Oil
41.9
37.5
35.8
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-0.6
-0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.1
Natural gas
-
16.6
55.0
60.0
60.5
60.6
60.6
60.8
-
1.8
0.1
0.0
0.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
19.65
23.92
29.62
35.08
37.82
45.18
54.20
63.83
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.7
3.4
2.6
3.5
3.1
Industry
4.66
5.35
7.43
9.34
11.04
14.05
17.71
22.05
23.7
22.4
25.1
26.6
29.2
31.1
32.7
34.5
1.9
4.7
4.2
4.6
4.4
Transportation
4.52
8.10
10.61
11.50
10.85
12.92
15.61
18.48
23.0
33.9
35.8
32.8
28.7
28.6
28.8
29.0
3.5
1.6
1.2
3.6
2.2
Others
10.25
10.19
10.53
13.05
14.58
16.66
19.14
21.31
52.1
42.6
35.6
37.2
38.6
36.9
35.3
33.4
0.1
4.4
2.5
2.5
2.9
Non-energy
0.23
0.27
1.05
1.19
1.35
1.54
1.75
1.99
1.2
1.1
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.1
6.3
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
Total
19.65
23.92
29.62
35.08
37.82
45.18
54.20
63.83
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.7
3.4
2.6
3.5
3.1
Coal
0.61
0.77
2.29
3.20
4.44
5.95
7.71
9.9
3.1
3.2
7.7
9.1
11.7
13.2
14.2
15.5
5.4
6.9
6.4
5.2
6.0
Oil
7.92
13.01
15.01
17.22
16.91
20.48
25.01
29.9
40.3
54.4
50.7
49.1
44.7
45.3
46.1
46.8
2.6
2.8
1.7
3.8
2.8
Natural gas
-
0.00
0.05
0.09
0.15
0.26
0.44
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
-
11.8
11.4
11.5
11.5
Electricity
1.82
3.14
5.83
6.94
7.90
9.79
11.74
13.5
9.3
13.1
19.7
19.8
20.9
21.7
21.7
21.1
4.8
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.4
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.30
7.00
6.44
7.65
8.42
8.70
9.30
9.8
47.3
29.3
21.7
21.8
22.3
19.3
17.2
15.4
-1.5
3.5
1.3
1.2
1.7
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Philippines (APS)


378
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
50.4
100.4
212.9
248.7
288.7
326.7
364.6
402.5
5.9
3.2
2.8
2.1
2.6
Population (millions of people)
3.0
4.0
5.5
5.8
6.1
6.3
6.4
6.6
2.4
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 16.55 
 24.92 
 38.58 
 42.8 
 47.6 
 52.1 
 56.6 
 60.9 
3.4
2.1
2.0
1.6
1.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.78 
 4.63 
 6.22 
 8.23 
 8.35 
 8.47 
 8.62 
 8.56 
2.0
5.8
0.3
0.1
1.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 229 
 186 
 161 
 192 
 175 
 163 
 152 
 141 
-1.4
3.6
-1.7
-1.4
-0.5
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 99 
 83 
 121 
 155 
 141 
 131 
 124 
 114 
0.8
5.2
-1.6
-1.4
-0.2
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 112 
 88 
 73 
 78 
 73 
 69 
 65 
 60 
-1.7
1.4
-1.2
-1.4
-0.8
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.49 
 0.47 
 0.45 
 0.41 
 0.42 
 0.42 
 0.43 
 0.43 
-0.3
-2.1
0.4
0.0
-0.2
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 0.84 
 0.85 
 0.86 
 0.87 
 0.88 
 0.89 
-
-
0.25
0.25
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 0.151 
 0.146 
 0.141 
 0.138 
 0.136 
 0.134 
-
-
-0.52
-0.28
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
11.53
18.67
34.31
47.76
50.60
53.11
55.55
56.61
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.5
6.8
1.1
0.6
2.0
Coal
0.02
0.00
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.36
0.2
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
10.6
1.5
1.3
0.8
1.1
Oil
11.44
17.35
23.81
35.33
36.41
37.42
38.57
39.18
99.2
92.9
69.4
74.0
72.0
70.5
69.4
69.2
3.0
8.2
0.6
0.5
2.0
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
9.84
11.65
13.26
14.63
15.78
16.12
0.0
6.0
28.7
24.4
26.2
27.5
28.4
28.5
-
3.4
2.3
1.0
2.0
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.07
0.20
0.39
0.49
0.61
0.73
0.85
0.95
0.6
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.7
7.1
4.9
4.0
2.7
3.7
Biomass
0.07
0.20
0.37
0.43
0.48
0.53
0.57
0.60
0.6
1.1
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
6.9
2.9
2.2
1.2
2.0
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.07
0.13
0.20
0.28
0.35
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
-
30.6
11.5
6.0
12.8
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
15.71
31.67
50.91
58.66
66.41
73.12
79.06
82.48
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.8
2.9
2.2
1.2
1.9
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.42
0.48
0.54
0.60
0.64
0.67
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
-
2.9
2.2
1.2
1.9
Oil
15.54
25.32
0.56
0.56
0.53
0.48
0.40
0.29
98.9
80.0
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
-12.4
-0.1
-1.6
-4.9
-2.6
Natural gas
0.00
5.86
48.29
55.19
61.97
67.66
72.46
75.06
0.0
18.5
94.8
94.1
93.3
92.5
91.7
91.0
-
2.7
2.1
1.0
1.8
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.17
0.49
1.64
2.44
3.37
4.38
5.56
6.46
1.1
1.5
3.2
4.2
5.1
6.0
7.0
7.8
9.5
8.2
6.0
4.0
5.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
4.42
7.72
8.60
9.70
10.76
11.61
12.28
12.70
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.7
2.5
1.8
0.9
1.6
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.16
0.19
0.20
0.22
0.23
0.0
0.0
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
-
2.9
2.2
1.2
1.9
Oil
4.42
6.60
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.08
0.06
100.0
85.5
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.5
-13.4
-0.3
-1.7
-4.9
-2.7
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
8.33
9.42
10.47
11.31
11.98
12.41
0.0
14.5
97.0
97.1
97.2
97.4
97.5
97.7
-
2.5
1.8
0.9
1.6
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.7
8.8
15.5
19.4
21.1
22.5
23.8
24.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.1
4.6
1.5
0.7
1.8
Coal
0.1
0.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-100.0
-
-
-
-
Oil
5.6
8.0
9.2
12.0
12.6
13.1
13.7
13.7
98.8
90.4
59.4
61.6
59.7
58.3
57.4
57.1
2.0
5.3
0.9
0.5
1.6
Natural gas
0.0
0.9
6.3
7.5
8.5
9.4
10.1
10.3
0.0
9.6
40.6
38.4
40.3
41.7
42.6
42.9
-
3.4
2.3
1.0
2.0
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
30.3
34.8
49.3
49.8
50.4
50.9
51.5
51.5
2.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
Coal
-
-
25.1
25.1
25.0
25.1
25.1
25.1
-
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
30.3
33.0
40.4
40.9
41.1
41.5
42.1
41.5
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
Natural gas
-
45.0
49.8
50.4
50.9
51.5
52.0
52.0
-
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.01
8.31
25.66
38.54
40.83
42.93
45.06
45.88
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.8
8.5
1.1
0.7
2.4
Industry
0.61
2.18
7.11
9.48
11.33
13.03
14.81
15.29
12.1
26.3
27.7
24.6
27.7
30.4
32.9
33.3
10.4
5.9
3.2
1.6
3.1
Transportation
1.36
1.75
2.99
3.09
3.25
3.44
3.66
3.89
27.1
21.1
11.6
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.1
8.5
3.2
0.7
1.1
1.2
1.1
Others
1.13
1.65
2.47
2.79
3.06
3.24
3.36
3.46
22.6
19.9
9.6
7.2
7.5
7.6
7.5
7.5
3.2
2.5
1.5
0.6
1.4
Non-energy
1.91
2.72
13.10
23.18
23.20
23.22
23.23
23.24
38.2
32.8
51.0
60.1
56.8
54.1
51.6
50.7
8.0
12.1
0.0
0.0
2.3
Total
5.01
8.31
25.66
38.54
40.83
42.93
45.06
45.88
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.8
8.5
1.1
0.7
2.4
Coal
0.02
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.4
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
7.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
3.81
5.86
19.84
31.37
32.45
33.48
34.64
35.27
76.1
70.5
77.3
81.4
79.5
78.0
76.9
76.9
6.8
9.6
0.7
0.5
2.3
Natural gas
0.06
0.11
1.51
2.23
2.80
3.32
3.80
3.71
1.2
1.3
5.9
5.8
6.8
7.7
8.4
8.1
13.6
8.1
4.1
1.1
3.7
Electricity
1.12
2.35
4.18
4.82
5.45
6.01
6.49
6.77
22.3
28.3
16.3
12.5
13.4
14.0
14.4
14.8
5.4
2.9
2.2
1.2
1.9
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Singapore (BAU)


379
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
50.4
100.4
212.9
248.7
288.7
326.7
364.6
402.5
5.9
3.2
2.8
2.1
2.6
Population (millions of people)
3.0
4.0
5.5
5.8
6.1
6.3
6.4
6.6
2.4
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 16.55 
 24.92 
 38.58 
 42.8 
 47.6 
 52.1 
 56.6 
 60.9 
3.4
2.1
2.0
1.6
1.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.78 
 4.63 
 6.18 
 8.10 
 8.12 
 8.13 
 8.19 
 8.12 
2.0
5.5
0.0
0.0
1.1
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 229 
 186 
 160 
 189 
 170 
 156 
 145 
 133 
-1.4
3.4
-1.9
-1.6
-0.7
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 99 
 83 
 120 
 154 
 140 
 130 
 121 
 112 
0.8
5.1
-1.7
-1.5
-0.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 112 
 88 
 72 
 76 
 70 
 65 
 60 
 55 
-1.7
1.0
-1.6
-1.6
-1.1
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.49 
 0.47 
 0.45 
 0.40 
 0.41 
 0.41 
 0.41 
 0.41 
-0.3
-2.3
0.3
0.0
-0.4
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
11.53
18.67
34.12
47.03
49.21
51.03
52.73
53.68
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
6.6
0.8
0.5
1.8
Coal
0.02
0.00
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.2
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
10.6
1.4
1.2
0.7
1.0
Oil
11.44
17.35
23.78
35.23
36.22
37.13
38.16
38.76
99.2
92.9
69.7
74.9
73.6
72.8
72.4
72.2
3.0
8.2
0.5
0.4
2.0
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
9.68
10.98
12.01
12.76
13.28
13.48
0.0
6.0
28.4
23.3
24.4
25.0
25.2
25.1
-
2.6
1.5
0.5
1.3
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.07
0.20
0.40
0.52
0.67
0.81
0.95
1.09
0.6
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
7.2
5.8
4.5
3.0
4.1
Biomass
0.07
0.20
0.37
0.42
0.47
0.50
0.53
0.55
0.6
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
6.9
2.6
1.8
0.9
1.6
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.10
0.20
0.31
0.42
0.54
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-
30.9
11.4
5.9
12.7
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
15.71
31.67
50.73
57.90
64.89
70.70
75.54
78.95
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.8
2.7
2.0
1.1
1.8
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.41
0.47
0.53
0.58
0.62
0.64
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
-
2.7
2.0
1.1
1.8
Oil
15.54
25.32
0.51
0.50
0.48
0.43
0.36
0.28
98.9
80.0
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
-12.8
-0.1
-1.5
-4.3
-2.4
Natural gas
0.00
5.86
48.06
54.07
59.73
64.13
67.49
69.47
0.0
18.5
94.7
93.4
92.0
90.7
89.3
88.0
-
2.4
1.7
0.8
1.5
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.17
0.49
1.75
2.86
4.16
5.56
7.07
8.55
1.1
1.5
3.5
4.9
6.4
7.9
9.4
10.8
9.8
10.2
6.9
4.4
6.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
4.42
7.72
8.42
9.05
9.57
9.85
9.95
10.23
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.8
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.0
0.0
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
-
2.7
2.0
1.1
1.8
Oil
4.42
6.60
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.08
0.07
0.05
100.0
85.5
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.5
-13.8
-0.7
-2.0
-4.6
-2.8
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
8.17
8.79
9.29
9.57
9.67
9.96
0.0
14.5
97.0
97.1
97.1
97.1
97.2
97.3
-
1.5
0.9
0.4
0.8
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.7
8.8
15.4
18.9
20.2
21.1
21.9
22.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.1
4.2
1.1
0.5
1.5
Coal
0.1
0.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-100.0
-
-
-
-
Oil
5.6
8.0
9.2
11.9
12.5
12.9
13.4
13.5
98.8
90.4
59.7
62.8
61.8
61.2
61.1
60.9
2.0
5.2
0.8
0.4
1.5
Natural gas
0.0
0.9
6.2
7.0
7.7
8.2
8.5
8.6
0.0
9.6
40.3
37.2
38.2
38.8
38.9
39.1
-
2.6
1.5
0.5
1.3
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
30.3
34.8
50.0
52.3
54.6
56.9
59.2
59.2
2.0
0.9
0.8
0.4
0.7
Coal
-
-
25.1
25.1
25.1
25.1
25.1
25.1
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
30.3
33.0
40.6
41.7
42.8
43.9
45.0
45.0
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.4
Natural gas
-
45.0
50.6
52.9
55.3
57.6
60.0
60.0
-
0.9
0.9
0.4
0.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.01
8.31
25.62
38.36
40.46
42.33
44.18
45.00
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.7
8.4
1.0
0.6
2.3
Industry
0.61
2.18
7.08
9.33
11.02
12.54
14.09
14.57
12.1
26.3
27.6
24.3
27.2
29.6
31.9
32.4
10.3
5.7
3.0
1.5
2.9
Transportation
1.36
1.75
2.99
3.09
3.24
3.42
3.63
3.86
27.1
21.1
11.7
8.0
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.6
3.2
0.7
1.0
1.2
1.0
Others
1.13
1.65
2.46
2.76
3.00
3.15
3.23
3.33
22.6
19.9
9.6
7.2
7.4
7.5
7.3
7.4
3.2
2.3
1.4
0.5
1.2
Non-energy
1.91
2.72
13.09
23.18
23.20
23.22
23.23
23.24
38.2
32.8
51.1
60.4
57.3
54.8
52.6
51.7
8.0
12.1
0.0
0.0
2.3
Total
5.01
8.31
25.62
38.36
40.46
42.33
44.18
45.00
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.7
8.4
1.0
0.6
2.3
Coal
0.02
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.4
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
7.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
3.81
5.86
19.82
31.28
32.28
33.20
34.24
34.86
76.1
70.5
77.4
81.6
79.8
78.4
77.5
77.5
6.8
9.6
0.6
0.5
2.3
Natural gas
0.06
0.11
1.50
2.19
2.72
3.19
3.61
3.52
1.2
1.3
5.9
5.7
6.7
7.5
8.2
7.8
13.6
7.8
3.8
1.0
3.5
Electricity
1.12
2.35
4.17
4.75
5.33
5.81
6.20
6.48
22.3
28.3
16.3
12.4
13.2
13.7
14.0
14.4
5.4
2.7
2.0
1.1
1.8
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Singapore (APS)


380
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
141.6
217.7
393.7
471.6
570.2
687.8
828.8
998.7
4.2
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
Population (millions of people)
56.6
61.9
65.7
65.8
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.2
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 2.5 
 3.5 
 6.0 
 7.16 
 8.6 
 10.4 
 12.5 
 15.1 
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.8 
 1.2 
 2.1 
 2.30 
 2.60 
 2.91 
 3.28 
 3.79 
4.1
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.5
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 301 
 332 
 343 
 321 
 301 
 279 
 262 
 251 
0.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.0
-1.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 204 
 232 
 249 
 240 
 231 
 221 
 210 
 199 
0.8
-0.7
-0.8
-1.1
-0.9
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 928 
 777 
 560 
 515 
 483 
 446 
 418 
 411 
-2.0
-1.7
-1.4
-0.8
-1.2
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 3.1 
 2.3 
 1.6 
 1.60 
 1.60 
 1.60 
 1.60 
 1.64 
-2.5
-0.4
0.0
0.2
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
42.63
72.27
134.97
151.42
171.76
191.92
217.11
250.81
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.7
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.5
Coal
3.82
7.67
16.82
17.81
20.36
22.53
26.65
33.40
9.0
10.6
12.5
11.8
11.9
11.7
12.3
13.3
6.1
1.2
2.4
4.0
2.8
Oil
17.96
31.88
52.27
60.46
71.06
82.42
95.05
109.13
42.1
44.1
38.7
39.9
41.4
42.9
43.8
43.5
4.4
3.0
3.1
2.8
3.0
Natural gas
4.99
17.36
37.92
41.18
42.60
43.27
45.08
53.43
11.7
24.0
28.1
27.2
24.8
22.5
20.8
21.3
8.4
1.7
0.5
2.1
1.4
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.43
0.52
0.49
0.89
1.04
1.14
1.23
1.26
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
12.4
2.5
1.0
3.8
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
15.43
14.83
27.47
31.08
36.70
42.55
49.10
53.59
36.2
20.5
20.4
20.5
21.4
22.2
22.6
21.4
2.3
2.5
3.2
2.3
2.7
Biomass
14.69
14.59
23.27
25.79
29.70
32.97
36.60
40.39
34.4
20.2
17.2
17.0
17.3
17.2
16.9
16.1
1.9
2.1
2.5
2.0
2.2
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.31
1.05
1.90
2.31
2.66
2.80
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.1
-
27.3
8.2
1.9
9.1
Biofuels
1.53
1.59
1.74
1.94
2.18
2.50
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
-
0.8
2.0
2.6
2.0
Electricity
0.05
0.24
2.35
2.65
3.35
5.32
7.65
7.90
0.1
0.3
1.7
1.7
2.0
2.8
3.5
3.1
16.4
2.4
7.2
4.0
5.0
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
44.18
95.98
165.71
193.52
222.41
237.18
251.27
294.57
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.4
3.2
2.1
2.2
2.3
Coal
11.05
17.77
32.92
31.89
35.66
38.11
49.01
71.82
25.0
18.5
19.9
16.5
16.0
16.1
19.5
24.4
4.5
-0.6
1.8
6.5
3.2
Oil
10.38
10.03
1.68
0.21
0.62
0.62
1.80
3.04
23.5
10.4
1.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.7
1.0
-7.0
-34.3
11.6
17.3
2.4
Natural gas
17.77
61.64
117.01
134.33
145.38
150.58
145.81
160.96
40.2
64.2
70.6
69.4
65.4
63.5
58.0
54.6
7.8
2.8
1.1
0.7
1.3
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
4.98
6.03
5.75
10.30
12.05
13.24
14.29
14.61
11.3
6.3
3.5
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.7
5.0
0.6
12.4
2.5
1.0
3.8
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.51
8.36
16.80
28.71
34.63
40.35
44.13
0.0
0.5
5.0
8.7
12.9
14.6
16.1
15.0
-
15.0
7.5
2.5
6.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
8.92
19.24
29.71
32.12
34.98
36.33
38.11
46.10
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.9
1.6
1.2
2.4
1.8
Coal
2.55
4.16
8.35
7.98
8.76
9.18
11.55
16.56
28.6
21.6
28.1
24.8
25.1
25.3
30.3
35.9
4.9
-0.9
1.4
6.1
2.8
Oil
2.55
2.34
0.37
0.05
0.14
0.14
0.40
0.67
28.6
12.2
1.2
0.1
0.4
0.4
1.0
1.5
-7.4
-34.3
11.6
17.3
2.4
Natural gas
3.82
12.73
20.99
24.10
26.08
27.01
26.16
28.87
42.9
66.2
70.6
75.0
74.6
74.3
68.6
62.6
7.0
2.8
1.1
0.7
1.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
131.5
169.2
220.6
242.7
275.2
307.0
346.6
410.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.1
1.9
2.4
2.9
2.5
Coal
37.5
46.1
64.4
69.5
79.5
87.9
104.0
130.3
28.5
27.3
29.2
28.6
28.9
28.6
30.0
31.8
2.2
1.5
2.4
4.0
2.9
Oil
44.6
71.5
94.1
101.8
116.0
132.7
153.3
178.3
34.0
42.2
42.7
41.9
42.1
43.2
44.2
43.5
3.0
1.6
2.7
3.0
2.6
Natural gas
49.3
51.6
62.0
71.4
79.8
86.3
89.3
101.5
37.5
30.5
28.1
29.4
29.0
28.1
25.8
24.7
0.9
2.8
1.9
1.6
2.0
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
37.8
40.0
43.9
44.6
44.7
44.8
44.4
44.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
-0.2
0.0
Coal
37.3
36.7
33.9
34.4
35.0
35.7
36.5
37.3
-0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
Oil
35.0
36.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
40.0
41.6
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
28.87
50.57
98.04
113.33
132.00
152.16
174.02
198.30
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.9
Industry
8.65
16.72
30.61
35.79
42.45
49.90
58.17
67.56
30.0
33.1
31.2
31.6
32.2
32.8
33.4
34.1
5.2
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.2
Transportation
9.01
14.61
23.72
25.88
29.42
33.71
38.78
44.92
31.2
28.9
24.2
22.8
22.3
22.2
22.3
22.7
3.9
1.8
2.7
2.9
2.6
Others
10.78
13.62
21.10
23.42
25.96
28.55
31.25
34.20
37.3
26.9
21.5
20.7
19.7
18.8
18.0
17.2
2.7
2.1
2.0
1.8
2.0
Non-energy
0.43
5.63
22.62
28.25
34.17
40.01
45.82
51.63
1.5
11.1
23.1
24.9
25.9
26.3
26.3
26.0
17.2
4.5
3.5
2.6
3.4
Total
28.87
50.57
98.04
113.33
132.00
152.16
174.02
198.30
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.9
Coal
1.31
3.54
8.16
9.84
11.60
13.35
15.09
16.85
4.5
7.0
8.3
8.7
8.8
8.8
8.7
8.5
7.6
3.8
3.1
2.4
2.9
Oil
14.93
28.77
49.25
57.26
67.25
78.09
89.93
103.21
51.7
56.9
50.2
50.5
50.9
51.3
51.7
52.0
4.9
3.1
3.1
2.8
3.0
Natural gas
0.14
1.11
9.63
11.02
13.14
15.53
18.16
21.16
0.5
2.2
9.8
9.7
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.7
18.5
2.7
3.5
3.1
3.2
Electricity
3.30
7.56
15.04
17.62
20.50
23.55
26.84
30.44
11.4
15.0
15.3
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.4
15.3
6.3
3.2
2.9
2.6
2.9
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.20
9.59
15.96
17.59
19.52
21.64
23.99
26.65
31.9
19.0
16.3
15.5
14.8
14.2
13.8
13.4
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Thailand (BAU)


381
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
141.6
217.7
393.7
471.6
570.2
687.8
828.8
998.7
4.2
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
Population (millions of people)
56.6
61.9
65.7
65.8
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.2
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 2.5 
 3.5 
 6.0 
 7.16 
 8.6 
 10.4 
 12.5 
 15.1 
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.8 
 1.2 
 2.1 
 2.11 
 2.20 
 2.33 
 2.49 
 2.78 
4.1
0.6
1.0
1.8
1.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 301 
 332 
 343 
 295 
 254 
 223 
 199 
 184 
0.5
-3.0
-2.7
-1.9
-2.5
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 204 
 232 
 249 
 222 
 198 
 180 
 161 
 147 
0.8
-2.3
-2.1
-2.0
-2.1
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 928 
 777 
 560 
 461 
 388 
 331 
 281 
 252 
-2.0
-3.8
-3.3
-2.7
-3.1
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 3.1 
 2.3 
 1.6 
 1.56 
 1.52 
 1.48 
 1.41 
 1.37 
-2.5
-0.9
-0.5
-0.8
-0.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
42.63
72.27
134.97
139.08
145.12
153.72
165.00
183.98
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.7
0.6
1.0
1.8
1.2
Coal
3.82
7.67
16.82
16.31
17.45
18.65
21.10
23.25
9.0
10.6
12.5
11.7
12.0
12.1
12.8
12.6
6.1
-0.6
1.3
2.2
1.3
Oil
17.96
31.88
52.27
56.05
61.04
66.98
72.37
79.67
42.1
44.1
38.7
40.3
42.1
43.6
43.9
43.3
4.4
1.4
1.8
1.7
1.7
Natural gas
4.99
17.36
37.92
37.05
34.53
31.73
29.94
34.17
11.7
24.0
28.1
26.6
23.8
20.6
18.1
18.6
8.4
-0.5
-1.5
0.7
-0.4
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.18
2.56
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
1.4
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.43
0.52
0.49
0.91
1.02
1.14
1.25
1.36
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.6
13.0
2.3
1.8
4.1
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
15.43
14.83
27.47
28.76
31.07
35.23
39.16
42.96
36.2
20.5
20.4
20.7
21.4
22.9
23.7
23.4
2.3
0.9
2.0
2.0
1.8
Biomass
14.69
14.59
23.27
24.12
25.99
28.41
30.94
34.02
34.4
20.2
17.2
17.3
17.9
18.5
18.7
18.5
1.9
0.7
1.7
1.8
1.5
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.31
0.77
1.27
1.76
2.25
2.74
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.4
1.5
-
19.6
8.6
4.6
9.1
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
1.53
1.32
1.13
1.00
0.83
0.76
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
-
-3.0
-2.7
-2.7
-2.8
Electricity
0.05
0.24
2.35
2.56
2.67
4.06
5.15
5.44
0.1
0.3
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.6
3.1
3.0
16.4
1.7
4.7
3.0
3.4
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
44.18
95.98
165.71
177.00
189.94
196.96 206.74
233.22
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.4
1.3
1.1
1.7
1.4
Coal
11.05
17.77
32.92
29.33
30.90
31.46
38.34
42.96
25.0
18.5
19.9
16.6
16.3
16.0
18.5
18.4
4.5
-2.3
0.7
3.2
1.1
Oil
10.38
10.03
1.68
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.91
23.5
10.4
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
-7.0
-100.0
-
-
-2.4
Natural gas
17.77
61.64
117.01
123.55
125.99
124.28
114.04
121.09
40.2
64.2
70.6
69.8
66.3
63.1
55.2
51.9
7.8
1.1
0.1
-0.3
0.1
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.53
9.82
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.2
4.2
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
4.98
6.03
5.75
10.59
11.91
13.24
14.56
15.84
11.3
6.3
3.5
6.0
6.3
6.7
7.0
6.8
0.6
13.0
2.3
1.8
4.1
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.51
8.36
13.53
21.13
27.97
35.27
42.59
0.0
0.5
5.0
7.6
11.1
14.2
17.1
18.3
-
10.1
7.5
4.3
6.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
8.92
19.24
29.71
29.50
30.20
29.88
29.49
31.83
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.9
-0.1
0.1
0.6
0.3
Coal
2.55
4.16
8.35
7.34
7.60
7.58
9.04
9.90
28.6
21.6
28.1
24.9
25.2
25.4
30.6
31.1
4.9
-2.6
0.3
2.7
0.7
Oil
2.55
2.34
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
28.6
12.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
-7.4
-100.0
-
-
-2.4
Natural gas
3.82
12.73
20.99
22.16
22.60
22.29
20.46
21.72
42.9
66.2
70.6
75.1
74.8
74.6
69.4
68.3
7.0
1.1
0.1
-0.3
0.1
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
131.5
169.2
220.6
217.2
221.3
227.4
232.8
252.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.1
-0.3
0.5
1.0
0.5
Coal
37.5
46.1
64.4
63.6
68.1
72.8
82.3
90.7
28.5
27.3
29.2
29.3
30.8
32.0
35.4
36.0
2.2
-0.3
1.3
2.2
1.4
Oil
44.6
71.5
94.1
88.5
85.8
86.1
84.6
89.5
34.0
42.2
42.7
40.8
38.8
37.8
36.3
35.5
3.0
-1.2
-0.3
0.4
-0.2
Natural gas
49.3
51.6
62.0
65.0
67.3
68.5
65.9
71.8
37.5
30.5
28.1
29.9
30.4
30.1
28.3
28.5
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.6
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
37.8
40.0
43.9
44.6
44.7
44.8
44.4
44.6
0.6
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.1
Coal
37.3
36.7
33.9
34.4
35.0
35.7
36.5
37.3
-0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
Oil
35.0
36.8
38.8
-
-
-
-
38.8
0.4
-
-
-
0.0
Natural gas
40.0
41.6
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
28.87
50.57
98.04
104.66
112.65
123.63
133.52
147.17
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
1.3
1.7
1.8
1.6
Industry
8.65
16.72
30.61
32.63
36.08
41.35
46.47
53.51
30.0
33.1
31.2
31.2
32.0
33.4
34.8
36.4
5.2
1.3
2.4
2.6
2.3
Transportation
9.01
14.61
23.72
21.35
19.08
17.31
14.65
13.63
31.2
28.9
24.2
20.4
16.9
14.0
11.0
9.3
3.9
-2.1
-2.1
-2.4
-2.2
Others
10.78
13.62
21.10
22.43
23.33
24.96
26.58
28.40
37.3
26.9
21.5
21.4
20.7
20.2
19.9
19.3
2.7
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.2
Non-energy
0.43
5.63
22.62
28.25
34.17
40.01
45.82
51.63
1.5
11.1
23.1
27.0
30.3
32.4
34.3
35.1
17.2
4.5
3.5
2.6
3.4
Total
28.87
50.57
98.04
104.66
112.65
123.63
133.52
147.17
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
1.3
1.7
1.8
1.6
Coal
1.31
3.54
8.16
8.97
9.86
11.07
12.06
13.35
4.5
7.0
8.3
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.0
9.1
7.6
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.0
Oil
14.93
28.77
49.25
52.90
57.36
62.73
67.49
74.16
51.7
56.9
50.2
50.5
50.9
50.7
50.5
50.4
4.9
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.7
Natural gas
0.14
1.11
9.63
10.24
11.32
12.67
13.91
15.66
0.5
2.2
9.8
9.8
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.6
18.5
1.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
Electricity
3.30
7.56
15.04
16.26
17.37
19.30
21.15
23.48
11.4
15.0
15.3
15.5
15.4
15.6
15.8
16.0
6.3
1.6
1.7
2.0
1.8
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.20
9.59
15.96
16.29
16.74
17.87
18.91
20.52
31.9
19.0
16.3
15.6
14.9
14.5
14.2
13.9
2.2
0.4
0.9
1.4
1.0
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Thailand (APS)


382
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
 17.8 
 36.8 
 154.5 
 216.7 
 296.9 
 397.3 
 519.3 
 662.8 
9.0
7.0
6.2
5.2
6.0
Population (millions of people)
 66.0 
 77.6 
 91.7 
 96.2 
 100.1 
 103.1 
 105.4 
 107.0 
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.6
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.3 
 0.5 
 1.7 
 2.25 
 3.0 
 3.9 
 4.9 
 6.2 
7.6
6.0
5.5
4.9
5.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.8 
 1.12 
 1.37 
 1.61 
 1.82 
 2.06 
4.2
7.9
3.7
2.5
4.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,006 
 780 
 453 
 495 
 461 
 417 
 369 
 332 
-3.1
1.8
-1.7
-2.3
-1.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 905 
 681 
 364 
 354 
 325 
 290 
 255 
 228 
-3.6
-0.6
-2.0
-2.4
-1.9
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 265 
 326 
 317 
 417 
 397 
 365 
 326 
 295 
0.7
5.7
-1.3
-2.1
-0.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.7 
 0.84 
 0.86 
 0.88 
 0.88 
 0.89 
4.0
3.8
0.4
0.1
1.0
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
17.86
28.74
70.06
107.36
136.84
165.63
191.56
219.92
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.6
8.9
4.4
2.9
4.7
Coal
2.21
4.37
25.18
57.90
74.65
91.31
107.22
123.54
12.4
15.2
35.9
53.9
54.6
55.1
56.0
56.2
10.2
18.1
4.7
3.1
6.6
Oil
2.71
7.81
15.58
22.50
30.25
38.94
47.63
57.87
15.2
27.2
22.2
21.0
22.1
23.5
24.9
26.3
7.2
7.6
5.6
4.0
5.4
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
9.62
9.63
15.42
20.22
23.25
26.57
0.0
3.9
13.7
9.0
11.3
12.2
12.1
12.1
38.1
0.0
7.7
2.8
4.1
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.46
1.25
5.43
4.26
4.95
5.17
5.12
5.14
2.6
4.4
7.8
4.0
3.6
3.1
2.7
2.3
10.4
-4.7
1.9
0.0
-0.2
Geothermal
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
12.47
14.19
14.25
13.08
11.57
10.00
8.34
6.80
69.8
49.4
20.3
12.2
8.5
6.0
4.4
3.1
0.5
-1.7
-2.6
-3.8
-2.9
Biomass
12.47
14.19
14.78
12.59
11.07
9.45
7.78
6.22
69.8
49.4
21.1
11.7
8.1
5.7
4.1
2.8
0.7
-3.2
-2.8
-4.1
-3.4
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
0.3
5.1
4.1
3.7
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-100.0
-
-
9.1
Electricity
-0.55
0.47
0.47
0.51
0.51
0.51
0.0
0.0
-0.8
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
-
-196.8
0.9
0.0
-199.7
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
8.68
26.57
159.81
242.79
323.27
398.90 469.84
546.15
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
12.4
8.7
5.1
3.2
5.0
Coal
2.00
3.14
51.00
155.30
200.30
253.42
313.14
376.39
23.1
11.8
31.9
64.0
62.0
63.5
66.6
68.9
13.8
24.9
5.0
4.0
8.3
Oil
1.31
4.52
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
15.0
17.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.8
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.01
4.36
44.93
37.58
65.05
85.00
96.72
109.56
0.1
16.4
28.1
15.5
20.1
21.3
20.6
20.1
42.9
-3.5
8.5
2.6
3.6
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
5.37
14.55
63.19
49.56
57.57
60.11
59.60
59.82
61.8
54.8
39.5
20.4
17.8
15.1
12.7
11.0
10.4
-4.7
1.9
0.0
-0.2
Geothermal
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
 -   
 -   
0.39
0.35
0.36
0.38
0.37
0.37
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-
-2.4
0.8
0.0
-0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.27
3.56
20.35
43.92
58.59
73.49
88.11
103.29
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
11.7
16.6
5.3
3.5
6.7
Coal
0.89
1.15
12.53
37.51
47.58
59.21
71.99
85.17
69.8
32.3
61.6
85.4
81.2
80.6
81.7
82.5
11.2
24.5
4.7
3.7
8.0
Oil
0.38
1.31
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.0
36.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.1
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.00
1.10
7.74
6.41
11.01
14.28
16.12
18.12
0.2
30.9
38.0
14.6
18.8
19.4
18.3
17.5
36.9
-3.7
8.3
2.4
3.5
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
4.7
12.0
49.0
90.4
117.9
145.2
169.2
195.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.8
13.0
4.9
3.0
5.7
Coal
2.5
4.7
28.0
63.9
82.7
101.2
118.3
135.7
53.2
39.2
57.2
70.7
70.1
69.7
69.9
69.5
10.1
17.9
4.7
3.0
6.5
Oil
2.2
6.4
13.9
19.4
24.4
30.3
35.3
41.7
46.8
53.3
28.5
21.5
20.7
20.9
20.9
21.4
7.7
6.8
4.6
3.2
4.5
Natural gas
0.0
0.9
7.0
7.1
10.8
13.6
15.7
17.9
0.0
7.5
14.3
7.8
9.2
9.4
9.3
9.1
-
0.2
6.8
2.7
3.8
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
22.4
29.0
40.7
37.8
39.0
39.6
40.0
40.5
2.4
-1.5
0.5
0.2
0.0
Coal
19.4
23.5
35.0
35.6
36.2
36.8
37.4
38.0
2.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Oil
29.4
29.7
32.3
-
-
-
-
-
0.4
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
17.2
34.1
49.9
50.4
50.8
51.2
51.6
52.0
4.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
16.06
25.09
56.31
76.63
96.43
115.35
132.39
150.97
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.1
6.4
4.2
2.7
4.0
Industry
4.54
7.86
23.68
37.01
49.13
59.19
68.17
77.97
28.3
31.3
42.0
48.3
50.9
51.3
51.5
51.6
6.8
9.3
4.8
2.8
4.9
Transportation
1.38
3.50
10.46
14.91
19.89
25.79
31.54
37.56
8.6
13.9
18.6
19.5
20.6
22.4
23.8
24.9
8.4
7.3
5.6
3.8
5.2
Others
10.11
13.60
20.95
23.03
25.18
27.57
29.22
31.24
63.0
54.2
37.2
30.1
26.1
23.9
22.1
20.7
3.0
1.9
1.8
1.3
1.6
Non-energy
0.03
0.13
1.23
1.68
2.23
2.81
3.46
4.20
0.2
0.5
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.8
16.3
6.5
5.3
4.1
5.1
Total
16.06
25.09
56.31
76.63
96.43
115.35
132.39
150.97
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.1
6.4
4.2
2.7
4.0
Coal
1.33
3.22
12.65
20.39
27.08
32.10
35.22
38.37
8.3
12.8
22.5
26.6
28.1
27.8
26.6
25.4
9.4
10.0
4.6
1.8
4.5
Oil
2.33
6.51
14.23
19.96
26.74
34.73
42.92
51.82
14.5
26.0
25.3
26.0
27.7
30.1
32.4
34.3
7.5
7.0
5.7
4.1
5.3
Natural gas
0.00
0.02
1.49
2.57
3.46
4.34
5.37
6.53
0.0
0.1
2.6
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.3
-
11.5
5.4
4.2
6.1
Electricity
0.53
1.93
12.14
19.69
26.13
32.25
37.97
44.15
3.3
7.7
21.6
25.7
27.1
28.0
28.7
29.2
13.3
10.2
5.1
3.2
5.3
Heat
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
11.87
13.41
15.81
14.02
13.02
11.94
10.91
10.10
73.9
53.4
28.1
18.3
13.5
10.3
8.2
6.7
1.2
-2.4
-1.6
-1.7
-1.8
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Viet Nam (BAU)


383
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
 17.8 
 36.8 
 154.5 
 216.7 
 296.9 
 397.3 
 519.3 
 662.8 
9.0
7.0
6.2
5.2
6.0
Population (millions of people)
 66.0 
 77.6 
 91.7 
 96.2 
 100.1 
 103.1 
 105.4 
 107.0 
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.6
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.3 
 0.5 
 1.7 
 2.25 
 3.0 
 3.9 
 4.9 
 6.2 
7.6
6.0
5.5
4.9
5.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.8 
 1.09 
 1.28 
 1.45 
 1.58 
 1.72 
4.2
7.3
2.9
1.7
3.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,006 
 780 
 453 
 482 
 432 
 376 
 320 
 277 
-3.1
1.2
-2.4
-3.0
-2.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 905 
 681 
 364 
 343 
 306 
 266 
 227 
 196 
-3.6
-1.2
-2.5
-3.0
-2.4
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 265 
 326 
 317 
 397 
 356 
 310 
 263 
 226 
0.7
4.6
-2.4
-3.1
-1.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.7 
 0.82 
 0.82 
 0.83 
 0.82 
 0.82 
4.0
3.4
0.0
-0.1
0.6
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
17.86
28.74
70.06
104.37
128.16
149.37
166.23
183.66
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.6
8.3
3.7
2.1
3.9
Coal
2.21
4.37
25.18
54.63
65.11
74.30
81.81
88.71
12.4
15.2
35.9
52.3
50.8
49.7
49.2
48.3
10.2
16.8
3.1
1.8
5.2
Oil
2.71
7.81
15.58
21.66
28.23
35.30
42.05
49.81
15.2
27.2
22.2
20.8
22.0
23.6
25.3
27.1
7.2
6.8
5.0
3.5
4.8
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
9.62
9.37
14.66
18.63
20.98
23.42
0.0
3.9
13.7
9.0
11.4
12.5
12.6
12.8
38.1
-0.5
7.1
2.3
3.6
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.46
1.25
5.43
4.16
4.71
4.85
4.67
4.54
2.6
4.4
7.8
4.0
3.7
3.2
2.8
2.5
10.4
-5.2
1.6
-0.7
-0.7
Geothermal
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
12.47
14.19
14.25
14.55
15.46
16.29
16.72
17.18
69.8
49.4
20.3
13.9
12.1
10.9
10.1
9.4
0.5
0.4
1.1
0.5
0.8
Biomass
12.47
14.19
14.78
13.92
14.13
14.15
13.77
13.12
69.8
49.4
21.1
13.3
11.0
9.5
8.3
7.1
0.7
-1.2
0.2
-0.8
-0.5
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.02
0.16
0.86
1.63
2.25
2.87
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
1.1
1.4
1.6
-
53.8
26.0
5.8
22.3
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.19
0.68
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.4
-
-100.0
-
-
24.0
Electricity
-0.55
0.47
0.47
0.51
0.51
0.51
0.0
0.0
-0.8
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
-
-196.8
0.9
0.0
-199.7
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
8.68
26.57
159.81
236.17
305.82 366.66
418.57
470.84
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
12.4
8.1
4.5
2.5
4.4
Coal
2.00
3.14
51.00
148.23
176.49
209.73
245.31
280.77
23.1
11.8
31.9
62.8
57.7
57.2
58.6
59.6
13.8
23.8
3.5
3.0
7.1
Oil
1.31
4.52
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
15.0
17.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.8
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.01
4.36
44.93
36.66
61.89
77.44
85.86
94.51
0.1
16.4
28.1
15.5
20.2
21.1
20.5
20.1
42.9
-4.0
7.8
2.0
3.0
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
5.37
14.55
63.19
48.34
54.77
56.44
54.32
52.81
61.8
54.8
39.5
20.5
17.9
15.4
13.0
11.2
10.4
-5.2
1.6
-0.7
-0.7
Geothermal
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
 -   
 -   
0.39
2.94
12.67
23.05
33.07
42.74
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.2
4.1
6.3
7.9
9.1
-
49.6
22.9
6.4
20.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.27
3.56
20.35
41.47
50.87
59.35
66.81
73.90
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
11.7
15.3
3.7
2.2
5.3
Coal
0.89
1.15
12.53
35.41
41.01
47.46
54.08
60.36
69.8
32.3
61.6
85.4
80.6
80.0
80.9
81.7
11.2
23.1
3.0
2.4
6.5
Oil
0.38
1.31
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.0
36.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.1
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.00
1.10
7.74
6.06
9.86
11.89
12.73
13.54
0.2
30.9
38.0
14.6
19.4
20.0
19.1
18.3
36.9
-4.8
7.0
1.3
2.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
4.7
12.0
49.0
86.1
105.6
123.2
136.4
149.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.8
11.9
3.7
2.0
4.6
Coal
2.5
4.7
28.0
60.3
72.2
82.6
90.5
97.7
53.2
39.2
57.2
70.1
68.4
67.1
66.3
65.1
10.1
16.6
3.2
1.7
5.1
Oil
2.2
6.4
13.9
18.7
22.8
27.4
30.9
35.3
46.8
53.3
28.5
21.8
21.6
22.2
22.6
23.5
7.7
6.1
3.9
2.6
3.8
Natural gas
0.0
0.9
7.0
7.0
10.6
13.2
15.0
17.0
0.0
7.5
14.3
8.1
10.0
10.7
11.0
11.3
-
-0.1
6.5
2.6
3.6
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
22.4
29.0
40.7
38.3
40.3
41.6
42.6
43.7
2.4
-1.2
0.8
0.5
0.3
Coal
19.4
23.5
35.0
36.0
37.0
38.0
39.0
40.0
2.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
Oil
29.4
29.7
32.3
-
-
-
-
-
0.4
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
17.2
34.1
49.9
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
4.4
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
16.06
25.09
56.31
74.36
90.90
105.61
117.66
130.15
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.1
5.7
3.6
2.1
3.4
Industry
4.54
7.86
23.68
35.47
45.37
52.62
58.39
64.29
28.3
31.3
42.0
47.7
49.9
49.8
49.6
49.4
6.8
8.4
4.0
2.0
4.1
Transportation
1.38
3.50
10.46
14.46
18.80
23.82
28.49
33.23
8.6
13.9
18.6
19.4
20.7
22.6
24.2
25.5
8.4
6.7
5.1
3.4
4.7
Others
10.11
13.60
20.95
22.75
24.50
26.36
27.31
28.43
63.0
54.2
37.2
30.6
27.0
25.0
23.2
21.8
3.0
1.7
1.5
0.8
1.2
Non-energy
0.03
0.13
1.23
1.68
2.23
2.81
3.46
4.20
0.2
0.5
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.2
16.3
6.5
5.3
4.1
5.1
Total
16.06
25.09
56.31
74.36
90.90
105.61
117.66
130.15
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.1
5.7
3.6
2.1
3.4
Coal
1.33
3.22
12.65
19.23
24.09
26.84
27.73
28.35
8.3
12.8
22.5
25.9
26.5
25.4
23.6
21.8
9.4
8.7
3.4
0.5
3.3
Oil
2.33
6.51
14.23
19.13
24.74
31.16
37.34
43.77
14.5
26.0
25.3
25.7
27.2
29.5
31.7
33.6
7.5
6.1
5.0
3.5
4.6
Natural gas
0.00
0.02
1.49
2.66
3.85
5.14
6.48
7.95
0.0
0.1
2.6
3.6
4.2
4.9
5.5
6.1
-
12.3
6.8
4.5
6.9
Electricity
0.53
1.93
12.14
19.17
24.75
29.68
33.88
38.13
3.3
7.7
21.6
25.8
27.2
28.1
28.8
29.3
13.3
9.6
4.5
2.5
4.7
Heat
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
11.87
13.41
15.81
14.18
13.48
12.80
12.23
11.95
73.9
53.4
28.1
19.1
14.8
12.1
10.4
9.2
1.2
-2.1
-1.0
-0.7
-1.1
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Viet Nam (APS)


384
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
9,064
12,713
16,598
18,394
20,260
22,629
25,118
27,677
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
Population (millions of people)
250
282
321
333
345
356
367
376
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.6
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 36.31 
 45.06 
 51.64 
 55.24 
 58.8 
 63.5 
 68.5 
 73.6 
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 7.67 
 8.06 
 6.81 
 6.50 
 6.27 
 6.08 
 5.88 
 5.70 
-0.5
-0.9
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 211 
 179 
 132 
 118 
 107 
 96 
 86 
 77 
-1.9
-2.2
-2.0
-2.1
-2.1
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 143 
 122 
 92 
 82 
 75 
 67 
 61 
 55 
-1.8
-2.1
-2.0
-2.0
-2.0
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 145 
 121 
 83 
 72 
 64 
 56 
 50 
 44 
-2.2
-2.9
-2.4
-2.4
-2.5
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.69 
 0.67 
 0.63 
 0.61 
 0.60 
 0.59 
 0.58 
 0.57 
-0.3
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 189 
 221 
 255 
 267 
 278 
 292 
 306 
 319 
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.756 
 0.785 
 0.793 
 0.801 
 0.805 
 0.819 
 0.834 
 0.849 
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,915.1
2,273.3 2,188.3 2,164.6 2,160.6 2,167.3
2,155.3 2,143.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.5
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
Coal
460.3
533.6
374.1
334.6
319.8
311.4
301.4
289.3
24.0
23.5
17.1
15.5
14.8
14.4
14.0
13.5
-0.8
-2.2
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
Oil
756.8
871.1
794.0
765.7
737.3
719.0
697.3
676.9
39.5
38.3
36.3
35.4
34.1
33.2
32.4
31.6
0.2
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
Natural gas
438.2
547.6
646.4
663.6
681.0
702.4
717.1
724.6
22.9
24.1
29.5
30.7
31.5
32.4
33.3
33.8
1.6
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.5
Nuclear
159.4
207.9
216.4
210.0
210.2
208.7
195.9
190.7
8.3
9.1
9.9
9.7
9.7
9.6
9.1
8.9
1.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.9
-0.5
Hydro
23.5
21.8
21.6
25.0
25.2
25.4
25.5
25.7
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
-0.3
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.7
Geothermal
14.1
13.1
9.0
13.5
18.8
20.8
23.6
26.3
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
-1.8
8.4
4.5
2.3
4.4
Others
62.7
78.2
126.9
152.2
168.2
179.6
194.4
209.5
3.3
3.4
5.8
7.0
7.8
8.3
9.0
9.8
2.9
3.7
1.7
1.6
2.0
Biomass
61.5
67.3
60.6
65.9
68.5
70.7
72.2
73.8
3.2
3.0
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
-0.1
1.7
0.7
0.4
0.8
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.3
2.1
22.4
39.3
47.6
57.4
69.4
81.4
0.0
0.1
1.0
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.2
3.8
18.5
11.9
3.9
3.6
5.3
Biofuels
0.7
5.9
38.2
42.5
47.5
46.9
48.3
49.7
0.0
0.3
1.7
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
17.1
2.2
1.0
0.6
1.1
Electricity
0.2
2.9
5.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
15.1
-4.4
0.0
0.0
-0.9
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3,202.8 4,025.9 4,297.0 4,462.4 4,622.7 4,831.2 5,016.1
5,173.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
Coal
1,699.6
2,129.5
1,471.0
1,316.0
1,291.7
1,302.6
1,302.9
1,279.3
53.1
52.9
34.2
29.5
27.9
27.0
26.0
24.7
-0.6
-2.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.6
Oil
130.6
118.5
38.8
14.8
13.8
11.9
11.5
10.8
4.1
2.9
0.9
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
-4.7
-17.5
-2.2
-1.0
-5.0
Natural gas
381.7
634.3
1,372.6
1,512.1
1,581.3
1,671.7
1,778.9
1,854.2
11.9
15.8
31.9
33.9
34.2
34.6
35.5
35.8
5.3
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
Nuclear
611.6
797.7
830.3
805.8
806.6
800.8
751.8
731.9
19.1
19.8
19.3
18.1
17.4
16.6
15.0
14.1
1.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.9
-0.5
Hydro
273.2
253.2
251.0
290.5
293.2
295.4
297.1
298.4
8.5
6.3
5.8
6.5
6.3
6.1
5.9
5.8
-0.3
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.7
Geothermal
16.0
14.6
18.7
28.4
39.9
44.2
50.0
55.9
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.6
8.6
4.5
2.4
4.5
Others
90.1
78.1
314.6
494.8
596.2
704.6
824.0
943.3
2.8
1.9
7.3
11.1
12.9
14.6
16.4
18.2
5.1
9.5
3.6
3.0
4.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
513.0
668.0
591.4
560.4
551.2
549.9
550.0
544.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-1.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
Coal
396.0
501.6
340.8
303.1
289.3
281.8
272.9
262.0
77.2
75.1
57.6
54.1
52.5
51.2
49.6
48.2
-0.6
-2.3
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
Oil
27.2
29.6
8.9
3.5
3.2
2.7
2.6
2.4
5.3
4.4
1.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
-4.4
-17.2
-2.3
-1.1
-5.1
Natural gas
89.7
136.9
241.7
253.8
258.7
265.4
274.5
279.6
17.5
20.5
40.9
45.3
46.9
48.3
49.9
51.4
4.0
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.6
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,314.7
1,532.0 1,382.9 1,324.4 1,292.2 1,277.6 1,255.4 1,228.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.2
-0.9
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
Coal
497.1
576.3
404.1
361.4
345.4
336.3
325.5
312.5
37.8
37.6
29.2
27.3
26.7
26.3
25.9
25.4
-0.8
-2.2
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
Oil
545.6
615.8
574.4
548.0
521.3
502.6
482.2
464.1
41.5
40.2
41.5
41.4
40.3
39.3
38.4
37.8
0.2
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
-0.8
Natural gas
272.0
339.8
404.4
415.0
425.5
438.7
447.7
452.3
20.7
22.2
29.2
31.3
32.9
34.3
35.7
36.8
1.6
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
37.1
37.1
41.9
43.6
45.0
46.7
48.4
49.7
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.7
Coal
36.9
36.5
37.1
37.3
38.4
39.8
41.1
42.0
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.5
Oil
41.2
34.5
37.5
36.9
37.2
37.5
37.9
38.2
-0.4
-0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
Natural gas
36.6
39.9
48.8
51.2
52.6
54.2
55.7
57.0
1.2
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,293.5 1,546.2 1,520.1
1,514.8
1,513.1
1,521.6
1,519.9
1,514.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Industry
283.7
332.3
261.6
259.1
260.3
264.0
265.3
265.0
21.9
21.5
17.2
17.1
17.2
17.4
17.5
17.5
-0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
Transportation
487.6
588.2
629.0
612.6
595.6
583.6
569.8
559.0
37.7
38.0
41.4
40.4
39.4
38.4
37.5
36.9
1.0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.4
-0.5
Others
403.2
472.7
506.3
515.8
525.4
537.3
544.9
549.4
31.2
30.6
33.3
34.1
34.7
35.3
35.8
36.3
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.3
Non-energy
119.0
153.0
123.3
127.2
131.8
136.7
140.0
141.5
9.2
9.9
8.1
8.4
8.7
9.0
9.2
9.3
0.1
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.6
Total
1,293.5 1,546.2 1,520.1
1,514.8
1,513.1
1,521.6
1,519.9
1,514.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Coal
55.7
32.6
19.5
18.3
17.5
16.8
16.0
15.1
4.3
2.1
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
-4.1
-1.3
-0.8
-1.1
-1.0
Oil
683.3
793.4
757.9
735.9
710.5
694.7
674.0
654.5
52.8
51.3
49.9
48.6
47.0
45.7
44.3
43.2
0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
Natural gas
303.0
359.9
333.2
337.2
344.7
354.2
358.4
359.9
23.4
23.3
21.9
22.3
22.8
23.3
23.6
23.8
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.3
Electricity
226.5
301.0
325.2
336.6
349.1
365.6
380.6
393.9
17.5
19.5
21.4
22.2
23.1
24.0
25.0
26.0
1.5
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
Heat
2.2
5.3
5.5
5.6
5.8
6.1
6.3
6.5
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
3.8
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.7
Others
22.9
54.1
79.0
81.2
85.4
84.1
84.6
85.0
1.8
3.5
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.1
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.3
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
United States (BAU)


385
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
9,064
12,713
16,598
18,394
20,260
22,629
25,118
27,677
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
Population (millions of people)
250
282
321
333
345
356
367
376
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.6
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 36.31 
 45.06 
 51.64 
 55.24 
 58.8 
 63.5 
 68.5 
 73.6 
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 7.67 
 8.06 
 6.81 
 6.43 
 6.05 
 5.71 
 5.36 
 5.08 
-0.5
-1.1
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 211 
 179 
 132 
 116 
 103 
 90 
 78 
 69 
-1.9
-2.5
-2.5
-2.6
-2.6
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 143 
 122 
 92 
 82 
 73 
 64 
 56 
 50 
-1.8
-2.2
-2.4
-2.5
-2.4
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 145 
 121 
 83 
 71 
 59 
 48 
 40 
 33 
-2.2
-3.3
-3.7
-3.9
-3.7
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.69 
 0.67 
 0.63 
 0.61 
 0.57 
 0.54 
 0.51 
 0.47 
-0.3
-0.8
-1.2
-1.3
-1.2
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 189 
 221 
 255 
 267 
 278 
 292 
 306 
 319 
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.756 
 0.785 
 0.793 
 0.801 
 0.805 
 0.819 
 0.834 
 0.849 
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,915.1
2,273.3 2,188.3 2,140.3 2,085.3 2,033.8 1,966.0 1,910.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.5
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
Coal
460.3
533.6
374.1
319.4
259.9
213.7
171.3
129.7
24.0
23.5
17.1
14.9
12.5
10.5
8.7
6.8
-0.8
-3.1
-3.9
-4.9
-4.1
Oil
756.8
871.1
794.0
766.2
712.7
662.5
611.7
567.6
39.5
38.3
36.3
35.8
34.2
32.6
31.1
29.7
0.2
-0.7
-1.4
-1.5
-1.3
Natural gas
438.2
547.6
646.4
647.5
648.7
654.5
648.0
626.6
22.9
24.1
29.5
30.3
31.1
32.2
33.0
32.8
1.6
0.0
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
Nuclear
159.4
207.9
216.4
210.0
210.2
208.7
197.7
206.5
8.3
9.1
9.9
9.8
10.1
10.3
10.1
10.8
1.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
Hydro
23.5
21.8
21.6
25.0
25.2
25.4
25.5
25.7
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
-0.3
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.7
Geothermal
14.1
13.1
9.0
13.5
26.1
33.2
38.0
42.8
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.6
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
-1.8
8.4
9.4
2.6
6.4
Others
62.7
78.2
126.9
158.9
202.5
235.7
273.9
311.3
3.3
3.4
5.8
7.4
9.7
11.6
13.9
16.3
2.9
4.6
4.0
2.8
3.7
Biomass
61.5
67.3
60.6
67.7
70.8
73.3
74.6
76.0
3.2
3.0
2.8
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
-0.1
2.2
0.8
0.4
0.9
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.3
2.1
22.4
43.3
68.7
91.3
121.4
151.4
0.0
0.1
1.0
2.0
3.3
4.5
6.2
7.9
18.5
14.1
7.7
5.2
8.0
Biofuels
0.7
5.9
38.2
43.3
58.4
66.6
73.3
79.3
0.0
0.3
1.7
2.0
2.8
3.3
3.7
4.2
17.1
2.5
4.4
1.8
3.0
Electricity
0.2
2.9
5.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
15.1
-4.4
0.0
0.0
-0.9
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3,202.8 4,025.9 4,297.0 4,414.9 4,512.4 4,664.8 4,797.2 4,897.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.2
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
Coal
1,699.6
2,129.5
1,471.0
1,256.6
1,038.3
870.9
705.2
525.6
53.1
52.9
34.2
28.5
23.0
18.7
14.7
10.7
-0.6
-3.1
-3.6
-4.9
-4.0
Oil
130.6
118.5
38.8
33.0
27.1
22.6
18.1
13.3
4.1
2.9
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
-4.7
-3.2
-3.7
-5.2
-4.2
Natural gas
381.7
634.3
1,372.6
1,449.8
1,485.3
1,556.8
1,598.1
1,545.6
11.9
15.8
31.9
32.8
32.9
33.4
33.3
31.6
5.3
1.1
0.7
-0.1
0.5
Nuclear
611.6
797.7
830.3
805.8
806.6
800.8
758.5
792.5
19.1
19.8
19.3
18.3
17.9
17.2
15.8
16.2
1.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
Hydro
273.2
253.2
251.0
290.5
293.2
295.4
297.1
298.4
8.5
6.3
5.8
6.6
6.5
6.3
6.2
6.1
-0.3
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.7
Geothermal
16.0
14.6
18.7
28.4
55.5
70.8
81.1
91.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.2
1.5
1.7
1.9
0.6
8.6
9.6
2.6
6.6
Others
90.1
78.1
314.6
550.9
806.3
1,047.5
1,339.1
1,630.7
2.8
1.9
7.3
12.5
17.9
22.5
27.9
33.3
5.1
11.9
6.6
4.5
6.8
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
513.0
668.0
591.4
537.9
476.7
433.4
389.5
334.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-1.9
-2.1
-2.6
-2.3
Coal
396.0
501.6
340.8
288.0
230.1
185.3
144.4
104.6
77.2
75.1
57.6
53.5
48.3
42.7
37.1
31.3
-0.6
-3.3
-4.3
-5.6
-4.6
Oil
27.2
29.6
8.9
7.7
6.2
5.1
4.0
2.9
5.3
4.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.9
-4.4
-3.0
-4.0
-5.4
-4.4
Natural gas
89.7
136.9
241.7
242.2
240.4
243.1
241.1
226.5
17.5
20.5
40.9
45.0
50.4
56.1
61.9
67.8
4.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
-0.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,314.7
1,532.0 1,382.9 1,298.0
1,186.1
1,094.1
998.8
902.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.2
-1.3
-1.7
-1.9
-1.7
Coal
497.1
576.3
404.1
344.9
280.7
230.8
185.0
140.1
37.8
37.6
29.2
26.6
23.7
21.1
18.5
15.5
-0.8
-3.1
-3.9
-4.9
-4.1
Oil
545.6
615.8
574.4
548.5
500.6
455.3
410.4
372.6
41.5
40.2
41.5
42.3
42.2
41.6
41.1
41.3
0.2
-0.9
-1.8
-2.0
-1.7
Natural gas
272.0
339.8
404.4
404.6
404.8
408.0
403.4
389.5
20.7
22.2
29.2
31.2
34.1
37.3
40.4
43.2
1.6
0.0
0.1
-0.5
-0.2
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
37.1
37.1
41.9
43.8
46.0
48.6
51.3
53.7
0.5
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
Coal
36.9
36.5
37.1
37.5
38.8
40.4
42.0
43.2
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.6
Oil
41.2
34.5
37.5
37.1
37.6
38.2
38.8
39.3
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
Natural gas
36.6
39.9
48.8
51.5
53.1
55.1
57.0
58.7
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,293.5 1,546.2 1,520.1 1,503.9 1,476.4 1,449.7 1,413.7 1,379.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
Industry
283.7
332.3
261.6
257.5
255.5
254.8
250.3
243.2
21.9
21.5
17.2
17.1
17.3
17.6
17.7
17.6
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
-0.5
-0.3
Transportation
487.6
588.2
629.0
610.0
582.2
553.3
523.6
501.4
37.7
38.0
41.4
40.6
39.4
38.2
37.0
36.4
1.0
-0.6
-1.0
-1.0
-0.9
Others
403.2
472.7
506.3
509.1
506.9
504.9
499.7
493.0
31.2
30.6
33.3
33.9
34.3
34.8
35.4
35.7
0.9
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Non-energy
119.0
153.0
123.3
127.2
131.8
136.7
140.0
141.5
9.2
9.9
8.1
8.5
8.9
9.4
9.9
10.3
0.1
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.6
Total
1,293.5 1,546.2 1,520.1 1,503.9 1,476.4 1,449.7 1,413.7 1,379.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
Coal
55.7
32.6
19.5
18.2
17.2
16.2
15.1
13.9
4.3
2.1
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
-4.1
-1.4
-1.1
-1.5
-1.3
Oil
683.3
793.4
757.9
732.3
684.2
638.9
591.6
550.9
52.8
51.3
49.9
48.7
46.3
44.1
41.9
39.9
0.4
-0.7
-1.4
-1.5
-1.3
Natural gas
303.0
359.9
333.2
333.4
332.9
332.4
327.9
321.4
23.4
23.3
21.9
22.2
22.5
22.9
23.2
23.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
Electricity
226.5
301.0
325.2
333.2
341.4
354.4
366.2
375.8
17.5
19.5
21.4
22.2
23.1
24.4
25.9
27.3
1.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
Heat
2.2
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.0
6.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
3.8
0.3
0.6
0.1
0.4
Others
22.9
54.1
79.0
81.3
94.9
101.7
106.8
111.0
1.8
3.5
5.2
5.4
6.4
7.0
7.6
8.1
5.1
0.6
2.3
0.9
1.4
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
United States (APS)

PREFACE
Energy security and climate change are very important issues in the world. At the Second 
East Asia Summit (EAS) in Cebu, Philippines in January 2007, the leaders of the region 
declared that East Asia could mitigate problems on these two issues through strong 
leadership on several countermeasures. These include promoting energy conservation, 
and utilising biofuels, and adopting cleaner use of coal. 
Two groups were designated to assist in implementing the countermeasures mentioned 
above: the Energy Cooperation Task Force (ECTF) and the Economic Research Institute 
for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA). The ECTF is responsible for supporting the efforts of the 
EAS and its Energy Ministers Meeting to promote cooperation on policies to implement 
these countermeasures. ERIA is responsible for studying the potential impacts of the 
countermeasures and is focusing its energy studies in two areas: (i) promotion of energy 
conservation and (ii) utilisation of biofuels.
This report was prepared by the Working Group for Analysis of Energy Saving Potential 
in East Asia under the ERIA Energy Project. The report covers all research activities of 
the Working Group from August 2015 to May 2016, including methodology, estimated 
impacts of current energy-saving goals, and policy recommendations to the ECTF. 
The structure of this report is like the earlier editions because of the application of similar 
methodology. However, one important accomplishment of this study is the development 
of energy efficiency targets for the countries that did not have targets when this project 
started in 2007. It could be said that those countries started adopting energy efficiency as 
an important energy policy as a result of this study.
This report hopefully contributes to mitigating problems related to energy security and 
climate change by increasing understanding of the potential for energy savings of a range 
of energy efficiency goals, action plans, and policies. It also discusses several key insights 
for policy development.
Shigeru Kimura
Leader of the Working Group
2019


IV
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study is a joint effort of Working Group members from the East Asia Summit countries, 
the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), and The Institute of 
Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ). We would like to acknowledge the support provided 
by everyone involved. We especially take this opportunity to thank the members of the 
Working Group, ERIA’s energy team, the International Affairs Division of the Agency for 
Natural Resources and Energy of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, 
and IEEJ’s energy outlook modelling team.
Special acknowledgement also goes to Shigeru Kimura, Han Phoumin, Yanfei Li, and 
Cecilya Laksmiwati Malik for their technical editing of this report.
This study could not have been realised without the invaluable support and contribution 
provided by many people (please see details in the List of Project Members).
Special thanks go to ERIA Publications Department—Stefan Wesiak, Chrestella Budyanto, 
Fadriani Trianingsih, and their team of editors for helping edit the report and prepare it for 
publication.
The Authors


V
CONTENTS
Tables
Figures
Abbreviations and Acronyms
Project Members
Executive Summary
Energy Outlook and Saving Potential in the East Asia 
Region: Main Report
Han Phoumin, Shigeru Kimura, and Cecilya Laksmiwati Malik
Australia Country Report
Shamim Ahmad and Lu Zheng
Brunei Darussalam Country Report
Ministry of Energy and Industry, Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia Country Report
Chiphong Sarasy
China Country Report
Yu Hao and Mingyuan Zhao
India Country Report
Atul Kumar, Michael O. Dioha, and Lu Zheng
Indonesia Country Report
Cecilya Laksmiwati Malik
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
VII
IX
XIX
XXI
XXIV
1
53
66
77
97
112
128


VI
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Japan Country Report
Seiya Endo
Republic of Korea Country Report
Kyung-Jin Boo
Lao PDR Country Report
Khamso Kouphokham
Malaysia Country Report
Zaharin Zulkifli
Myanmar Country Report
Tin Zaw Myint
New Zealand Country Report
Hien Dieu Thi Dang and Seiya Endo
Philippines Country Report
Danilo V. Vivar
Singapore Country Report
Loi Tian Sheng Allan
Thailand Country Report
Supit Padprem
Viet Nam Country Report
Nguyen Minh Bao
United States Country Report
Clara Gillispie and Seiya Endo
Results Summary Tables
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Chapter 10
Chapter 11
Chapter 12
Chapter 13
Chapter 14
Chapter 15
Chapter 16
Chapter 17
Chapter 18
Annex
153
164
181
199
219
243
255
281
304
316
334
349


VII
TABLES
Main Report
Geographic, Demographic, and Economic Profiles, 2015
Economic Structure and Energy Consumption, 2015
Access to Electricity, %
Assumptions on Biofuels – Summary by Country
Reference Materials and their Estimation
Production Outlook of Oil
Production Outlook of Gas
Production Outlook of Coal
Summary of Energy-Saving Goals, Action Plans, and Policies 
Collected from Each EAS17 Working Group Member
Comparison of CO2 Emissions amongst the Scenarios in 
2040, Mt-C
Brunei Darussalam Country Report
Energy Supply and Consumption, 2015 (Mtoe)
Cambodia Country Report
Power Generation Facility by Fuel Type
Updated Cambodia Energy Information
BAU Installed Capacity
APS Installed Capacity
Cambodia’s INDC Targets
Results of CO2 Emissions Reduction by 2040 (Million Tons 
CO2)
Chapter 1
Table 1.1  
Table 1.2
Table 1.3
Table 1.4
Table 1.5
Table 1.6
Table 1.7
Table 1.8
Table 1.9
Table 1.10
Chapter 3
Table 3.1
Chapter 4
Table 4.1
Table 4.2
Table 4.3
Table 4.4
Table 4.5
Table 4.6
3
4
17
18
20
22
22
23
24
40
67
78
78
79
79
81
94


VIII
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Indonesia Country Report
NDC Emissions Reduction Targets for GHG
CO2 Emissions in 2030 and 2040, BAU and APS
Lao PDR Country Report
Assumption of Annual Average Annual Growth of GDP and 
Population
Malaysia Country Report
GDP Growth Assumptions by Sector to 2040 (% per year)
Population Growth Assumptions to 2040
Potential Mitigation Scenarios
Current Results of Key Indicators from APS 
Newly Proposed Mitigation Scenarios
Results for INDC Scenario
Myanmar Country Report
Installed Capacity and Power Generation by Fuel Type 
(2015–2016) 
Yearly Plan for the Construction of Power Plan Projects (MW) 
(2018–2022)
Installed Capacity and Power Supply in Scenarios for 2030
Chapter 7
Table 7.1
Table 7.2
Chapter 10
Table 10.1
Chapter 11
Table 11.1
Table 11.2
Table 11.3
Table 11.4
Table 11.5
Table 11.6
Chapter 12
Table 12.1
Table 12.2
Table 12.3
146
147
184
202
203
206
215
216
216
220
222
222


IX
FIGURES
Main Report
Assumed Population in the EAS17 Region, 2015 and 2040
Assumed Average Annual Growth in Population, 2015–2040
Assumed Economic Activity in the EAS17 Region, 2015 and 
2040
Assumed Average Annual Growth in GDP, 2015–2040
Real GDP per Capita, 2015 and 2040
Thermal Efficiencies of Gas Electricity Generation
Thermal Efficiencies of Coal Electricity Generation
Share of Fuel Type in the Electricity Generation Mix in the 
EAS17 Region
Real Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal Imported Price Assumptions 
(Real prices in 2016 US$)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption Share by Sector (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption Share by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply in EAS17 (1990–2040)
Share of Primary Energy Mix by Source (1990–2040)
Power Generation in EAS17 (1990–2040)
Share of Power Generation Mix in EAS17 (1990–2040)
Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators in EAS17
Total Final Energy Consumption, BAU and APS
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU vs APS
Primary Energy Supply by Sources, BAU and APS
Total Primary Energy Supply – BAU and APS
Total CO2 Emissions – BAU and APS
Investment Share by Power Source (EAS17–BAU)
Investment Share by Power Source (EAS17–APS)
Investment Share by Power Source (ASEAN–BAU)
Investment Share by Power Source (ASEAN–APS)
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1
Figure 1.2
Figure 1.3
Figure 1.4
Figure 1.5
Figure 1.6
Figure 1.7
Figure 1.8
Figure 1.9
Figure 1.10
Figure 1.11
Figure 1.12
Figure 1.13
Figure 1.14
Figure 1.15
Figure 1.16
Figure 1.17
Figure 1.18
Figure 1.19
Figure 1.20
Figure 1.21
Figure 1.22
Figure 1.23
Figure 1.24
Figure 1.25
Figure 1.26
Figure 1.27
Figure 1.28
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
19
26
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
41
41
42
42


X
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Energy Infrastructure Investment (EAS17, BAU–APS)
Energy Infrastructure Investment (ASEAN, BAU–APS)
Australia Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type
Power Generation under BAU
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS
CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU and APS
Brunei Darussalam Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Reduction of Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Cambodia Country Report
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU
Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU
Energy and CO2 Indicators
Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply by 
2040 
Comparison of Scenarios of Electricity Generation by 2040
Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions, 2040 
Figure 1.29
Figure 1.30
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1
Figure 2.2
Figure 2.3
Figure 2.4
Figure 2.5
Figure 2.6
Figure 2.7
Figure 2.8
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1
Figure 3.2
Figure 3.3
Figure 3.4
Figure 3.5
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1
Figure 4.2
Figure 4.3
Figure 4.4
Figure 4.5
Figure 4.6
Figure 4.7
Figure 4.8
Figure 4.9
43
44
56
57
58
59
60
61
61
63
70
71
72
73
74
81
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90


XI
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS
Total Primary Energy Saving Potential by Fuel Type, BAU vs APS
CO2 Emissions by Fuel Type, BAU and APS
China Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Power Generation, BAU (1990–2040)
Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
India Country Report
Grid Power Sources (GW) and their Percentage Shares as of 
June 2017
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU (1990–2040)
Electricity Generation under BAU (1990–2040)
CO2 Emissions under BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption under APSs
Final Energy Consumption, BAU vs APS5 (2015 and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Sector, BAU vs APS5
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU vs APS5 (2015 and 2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU vs APS5 
(2015 and 2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU vs APSs
CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU vs APS5 
(2015 and 2040)
Figure 4.10
Figure 4.11
Figure 4.12
Figure 4.13
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1
Figure 5.2
Figure 5.3
Figure 5.4
Figure 5.5
Figure 5.6
Figure 5.7
Figure 5.8
Figure 5.9
Figure 5.10
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1
Figure 6.2
Figure 6.3
Figure 6.4
Figure 6.5
Figure 6.6
Figure 6.7
Figure 6.8
Figure 6.9
Figure 6.10
Figure 6.11
Figure 6.12
Figure 6.13
91
92
92
93
102
103
103
104
105
106
107
108
108
109
114
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
122
123
123
124
125
Figures


XII
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Indonesia Country Report
Energy Efficiency and Conservation Assumptions
Final Energy Consumption by Sector (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040))
Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
Power Generation by Fuel Type (TWh) (1990–2040))
Thermal Efficiency, BAU (2015–2040)
Energy Intensity and Other Energy Indicators (1990=100)
Comparison of Scenarios of Total Primary Energy Supply by 
2040
Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation by 2040
Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions by 2040
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(2015–2040)
Power Generation Mix, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Japan Country Report
Annual Growth Rate of GDP and Population
Thermal Efficiency, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Source, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
Indices of Energy and CO2 Intensities, Energy per Capita,and 
Carbonisation Rate, BAU (1990–2040) 
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 
2040)
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1
Figure 7.2
Figure 7.3
Figure 7.4
Figure 7.5
Figure 7.6
Figure 7.7
Figure 7.8
Figure 7.9
Figure 7.10
Figure 7.11
Figure 7.12
Figure 7.13
Figure 7.14
Figure 7.15
Figure 7.16
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1
Figure 8.2
Figure 8.3
Figure 8.4
Figure 8.5
Figure 8.6
Figure 8.7
Figure 8.8
Figure 8.9
130
131
133
134
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
143
144
145
148
155
156
157
157
158
159
160
160
161


XIII
CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion, BAU and APS 
(1990, 2015, and 2040)
Republic of Korea Country Report
Assumptions for GDP and Population (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS
Final Energy Consumption by Energy, BAU and APS
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Energy Type, BAU and APS (1990–
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APSs
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Energy and Carbon Intensities (1990–2040)
Lao PDR Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector (1990–2040)
Sectors’ Share in Final Energy Consumption (1990–2040)
Fuels’ Share in Total Final Energy Consumption (1990–2040) 
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source (1990–2040)
Fuels’ Share in Primary Energy Supply (1990–2040)
Electricity Generation in 2040
Technologies’ Share in Electricity Generation (1990–2040)
Energy Intensity and Other Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply in 
2040
Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation in 2040
Comparison of Scenarios to Carbon Emissions in 2040
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Figure 8.10
Chapter 9
Figure 9.1
Figure 9.2
Figure 9.3
Figure 9.4
Figure 9.5
Figure 9.6
Figure 9.7
Figure 9.8
Figure 9.9
Figure 9.10
Figure 9.11
Figure 9.12
Chapter 10
Figure 10.1
Figure 10.2
Figure 10.3
Figure 10.4
Figure 10.5
Figure 10.6
Figure 10.7
Figure 10.8
Figure 10.9
Figure 10.10
Figure 10.11
Figure 10.12
Figure 10.13
162
166
168
169
170
171
171
172
173
175
175
176
177
185
185
186
186
189
189
190
190
191
192
192
193
194
Figures


XIV
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Primary Energy Demand by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Final Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU vs APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Malaysia Country Report
Modelling Structure
Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Share of Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Share of Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU 
(1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Share of Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–
2040)
Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Share of Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Myanmar Country Report
Final Energy Demand by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040) 
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU (1990–2040)
Power Generation Mix, BAU (1990–2040)
Figure 10.14
Figure 10.15
Figure 10.16
Figure 10.17
Figure 10.18
Chapter 11
Figure 11.1
Figure 11.2
Figure 11.3
Figure 11.4
Figure 11.5
Figure 11.6
Figure 11.7
Figure 11.8
Figure 11.9
Figure 11.10
Figure 11.11
Figure 11.12
Figure 11.13
Figure 11.14
Figure 11.15
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1
Figure 12.2
Figure 12.3
Figure 12.4
195
195
196
197
197
201
207
207
208
208
209
209
210
210
211
211
212
213
213
214
227
228
229
230


XV
Energy Intensity, CO2 Intensity, and Energy per Capita 
(1990–2040)
Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply in 
2040
Comparison of Scenarios of Electricity Generation in 2040
Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions in 2040
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Evolution of Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Electricity Demand, BAU and APS (2015–2040)
Power Generation Capacity in 2030, BAU and APS
New Zealand Country Report
GDP and Population (1990–2040)
Power Generation by Fuel, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Intensity and Energy per Capita Indicator, 
BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 
2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(1990, 2015, and 2040)
Figure 12.5
Figure 12.6
Figure 12.7
Figure 12.8
Figure 12.9
Figure 12.10
Figure 12.11
Figure 12.12
Figure 12.13
Figure 12.14
Chapter 13
Figure 13.1
Figure 13.2
Figure 13.3
Figure 13.4
Figure 13.5
Figure 13.6
Figure 13.7
Figure 13.8
Figure 13.9
Figure 13.10
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
237
239
240
245
245
247
247
248
249
250
251
251
252
Figures


XVI
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Philippines Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990, 2015, and 
2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Energy Intensity, Energy Per Capita, and Income Elasticity of 
Energy (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply 
(2040)
Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation (2040)
Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions (2040)
Comparison of Total Final Energy Consumption in 2040, BAU 
and APS 
Comparison of Final Energy Consumption in 2040, BAU and 
APS 
Comparison of Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type in 
2040, BAU and APS
Comparison of Total Primary Energy Supply in 2040 (BAU, 
INDC, and APS5)
Comparison of Total CO2 in 2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5)
Comparison of Final Energy Consumption by Sector in 2040 
(BAU, INDC, and APS5)
Comparison of Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type in 
2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5)
Singapore Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
Electricity Generation, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APSs
Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APSs
Chapter 14
Figure 14.1
Figure 14.2
Figure 14.3
Figure 14.4
Figure 14.5
Figure 14.6
Figure 14.7
Figure 14.8
Figure 14.9
Figure 14.10
Figure 14.11
Figure 14.12
Figure 14.13
Figure 14.14
Figure 14.15
Figure 14.16
Chapter 15
Figure 15.1
Figure 15.2
Figure 15.3
Figure 15.4
Figure 15.5
Figure 15.6
Figure 15.7
263
264
266
267
267
268
269
270
271
272
272
273
274
275
276
277
290
291
292
293
294
294
295


XVII
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS5 (2015 
and 2040)
Electricity Generation,  BAU and APSs
CO2 Emissions from Energy Supply, BAU and APS5 (2015 
and 2040)
Thailand Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 
and 2040)
Primary Energy Demand by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 
2040)
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(1990, 2015, and 2040)
Viet Nam Country Report
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU (1990–2040)
Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APSs
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU vs APS (2015 and 
2040)
Primary Energy Saving Potential by Fuel Type, BAU and APS 
(2015 and 2040)
Evolution of Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 
2015, and 2040)
CO2 Emissions by Fuel Type, BAU and APSs
Figure 15.8
Figure 15.9
Figure15.10
Chapter 16
Figure 16.1
Figure 16.2
Figure 16.3
Figure 16.4
Figure 16.5
Figure 16.6
Figure 16.7
Figure 16.8
Figure 16.9
Figure 16.10
Chapter 17
Figure 17.1
Figure 17.2
Figure 17.3
Figure 17.4
Figure17. 5
Figure 17.6
Figure 17.7
Figure 17.8
Figure 17.9
Figure 17.10
296
296
297
306
307
308
309
310
310
311
312
313
314
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
327
328
Figures


XVIII
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Evolution of CO2 Emissions, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 
2040)
GHG Reduction Targets, APS5 vs INDC
United States Country Report
GDP and Population (1990–2040)
Per Capita GDP (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
Changes in Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU 
(1990–2040)
Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Power Generation under BAU (1990–2040)
Share of Power Generation Mix under BAU (1990–2040)
Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU vs APS (2015 and 
2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU vs APS (2015 and 2040)
Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU vs APS (2015 
and 2040)
CO2 Emissions Trends under APS (1990–2040)
Figure 17.11
Figure 17.12
Chapter 18
Figure 18.1
Figure 18.2
Figure 18.3
Figure 18.4
Figure 18.5
Figure 18.6
Figure 18.7
Figure 18.8
Figure 18.9
Figure 18.10
Figure 18.11
329
331
337
337
339
340
341
341
342
343
344
345
346


XIX
ABBREVIATIONS AND 
ACRONYMS
AAGR 
average annual growth rate
APS 
Alternative Policy Scenario
ASEAN  
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
BAU  
Business-As-Usual
BCA 
Building and Construction Authority (Singapore)
BPS 
Central Bureau of Statistics (Indonesia)
CCS  
carbon capture and storage
CNG  
compressed natural gas
CO2  
carbon dioxide
DOE 
Department of Energy (Philippines)
DSM 
demand-side management
EAS  
East Asia Summit
ECTF  
Energy Cooperation Task Force
EEC  
energy efficiency and conservation
EPU 
Economic Planning Unit (Malaysia)
ERIA  
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia
FiT  
feed-in tariff
GDP 
gross domestic product
GHG  
greenhouse gas 
GTMP 
Green Technology Master Plan (Malaysia)
GWh  
gigawatt-hour
HDB 
Housing and Development Board (Singapore)
IEEJ  
The Institute for Energy Economics, Japan
INDC 
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
KEN 
National Energy Policy (Indonesia)
ktoe  
thousand tons of oil equivalent
kWh 
kilowatt-hour
LEAP 
Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System
LPG 
liquefied petroleum gas
LSS 
large-scale solar
MEF 
Ministry of Economy and Finance (Cambodia)


XX
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
MEGTW 
Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water (Malaysia)
MELS 
Mandatory Energy Labelling Scheme (Singapore)
MEMR 
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (Indonesia)
MEPS 
Minimum Energy Performance Standards (Singapore)
METI  
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan)
Mtoe  
million tons of oil equivalent
Mt-C  
million tons of carbon
MW  
megawatts
MWh  
megawatt-hour
MWp 
megawatt-peak
NDC 
Nationally Determined Contributions
NEB 
National Energy Balance (Malaysia)
NEM 
net energy metering
NRE 
new and renewable energy
NREP 
National Renewable Energy Program (Philippines)
OECD  
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
PPP 
purchasing power parity
PRC 
People’s Republic of China
RE 
renewable energy
RPS  
Renewable Portfolio Standards
SEDA 
Sustainable Energy Development Authority (Malaysia)
TCF 
trillion cubic feet
TCM 
trillion cubic metres
toe  
tons of oil equivalent
t-C 
tons of carbon
TFEC 
total final energy consumption
TPES  
total primary energy supply
Tscf 
trillion standard cubic feet
TWh  
terawatt-hour
US$  
United States dollar


XXI
PROJECT MEMBERS
SHIGERU KIMURA (LEADER): Special Advisor to President on Energy Affairs, 
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) 
PHOUMIN HAN (SUB-LEADER): Energy Economist, ERIA
SHIGEKI KAMIYAMA (COORDINATOR): Director General for Research 
Administration, ERIA
YANFEI LI (COORDINATOR): Energy Economist, ERIA
HIEN DIEU THI DANG: Senior Analyst, Energy Information, Strategy and Programme, 
Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, New Zealand
SHAMIM AHMAD: Assistant Director, Policy Analysis and Implementation Division, 
Department of the Environment and Energy, Australia
CLARA ELIZABETH GILLISPIE: Senior Director, Trade, Economics, and Energy 
Affairs, National Bureau of Asia Research, United States
RIFDI SAHARI: Economic Officer, Strategy, Energy Commercial and Data Division, 
Energy and Industry Department, Prime Minister’s Office, Brunei Darussalam
CHIPHONG SARASY: Chief, Renewable Energy Office, Department of New and 
Renewable Energy, Ministry of Mines and Energy, Cambodia
YU HAO: Associated Professor, School of Management and Economics, Beijing 
Institute of Technology, China
ATUL KUMAR: Professor, Department of Energy and Environment, The Energy and 
Resources Institute of Advanced Studies, India


XXII
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
CECILYA LAKSMIWATI MALIK: Energy Policy Planning Expert (Former Senior 
Scientist and Researcher of BPPT), Indonesia 
KIMINORI MAEKAWA: Senior Coordinator and Manager, The Institute of Energy 
Economics, Japan (IEEJ)
SHIGERU SUEHIRO: Senior Economist and Manager, The Energy Data and Modelling 
Center, IEEJ
ZHENG LU: Senior Economist, The Energy Data and Modelling Center, IEEJ
MOMOKO AOSHIMA: Senior Economist, The Energy Data and Modelling Center, IEEJ
SEIYA ENDO: Economist, IEEJ
KYUNG-JIN BOO: Professor, Urban Affairs and Public Policy, Technology and 
Management, Economics and Policy Program, College of Engineering, Seoul National 
University, Korea
KHAMSO KOUPHOKHAM: Acting Director-General, Department of Law, Ministry of 
Energy and Mines, Lao PDR
ZAHARIN ZULKIFLI: Senior Regulatory Officer, Malaysia Energy Information 
Hub, Energy Management and Service Quality Development Department, Energy 
Commission, Malaysia
TIN ZAW MYINT: Director, Oil and Gas Planning Department, Ministry of Electricity 
and Energy, Myanmar
DANILO V. VIVAR: Chief, Policy Formulation and Research Division, Energy Policy and 
Planning Bureau, Department of Energy, Philippines
ALLAN LOI: Energy Analyst, Energy Economics Department, Energy Studies Institute, 
National University of Singapore, Singapore
SUPIT PADPREM: Director, Energy Analysis and Forecast Group, Energy Forecast and 
Information Technology Center, Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy, 
Thailand


XXIII
NGUYEN MINH BAO: Former Senior Researcher, Institute of Energy, Viet Nam
LEONG SIEW MENG: Consultant, Green Tech Solution Inc. (ASHRAE, Malaysia 
Chapter)
Project Members


XXIV
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019


XXV
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia–East Asia Summit (ERIA-EAS) 
Energy Outlook was updated in 2017–2018 through a revision of macro assumptions, 
such as economic and population growth as well as crude oil prices under the current 
lower price situation. In addition, this outlook incorporates more recent information on the 
EAS17 member countries’ energy-saving goals and action plans, and power development 
plans such as renewable electricity. 
The outlook still focuses on analysing the additional energy savings that might be achieved 
by the individual countries above and beyond the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario 
projection. It continues to examine two scenarios, the BAU scenario and the Alternative 
Policy Scenario (APS), and predicts energy supply, consumption, and CO2 emissions from 
2015 until 2040. The APS includes not only more ambitious energy-saving targets but 
also rapid advances in low-carbon energy technologies, especially renewable energy.
Under the BAU scenario, sustained population and economic growth will significantly 
increase the total final energy consumption (TFEC) by 1.6 times in 2015–2040. The total 
primary energy supply (TPES) in the EAS17 region is projected to grow at a slightly slower 
pace of 1.5% per year. It is projected to increase from 7,488 Mtoe in 2015 to 10,943 
Mtoe in 2040. Coal will remain the largest share of the TPES, but its growth is expected 
to be slower, increasing at 1.3% per year. Consequently, the share of coal in the TPES is 
forecasted to decline from 41.4% in 2015 to 38.9% in 2040. Increasing the use of clean 
coal technology and development of carbon capture storage technology will be critical for 
the coal power plants in this region to mitigate CO2 emissions and become carbon free.
Fossil fuel energy consisting of coal, oil, and gas will still be dominant in 2040 and its 
share under the BAU scenario will be 84.1%. If EAS17 countries remain dedicated to 
implementing their energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) policies and increase low-
carbon energy technologies, such as nuclear power generation and solar photovoltaic 
(PV)/wind (APS), the EAS17 region could achieve fossil fuel savings of 23.4% and 
the fossil fuel share could fall to 76.6%. CO2 emissions would be reduced significantly 
about 24.2% from BAU to the APS consequently. In view of this, EAS countries need to 
implement their EEC and renewable energy policies (energy saving targets and action 
plans) as scheduled. The targets and action plans that will be applied across sectors – 


XXVI
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
industry, transport, residential, and commercial – should be appropriate and feasible. 
Governments of EAS17 countries are encouraged to support the activities of energy 
service companies as such is crucial in achieving energy efficiency and savings. 
Renewable energy such as hydro, geothermal, solar PV, wind, and biomass will also 
contribute to the expected reduction of fossil fuel consumption, which will result in a 
mitigation of CO2 emissions. To increase the share of renewable energy in the primary 
energy mix, appropriate government policies will be crucial. Policies such as net metering, 
Renewable Portfolio Standards, and feed-in tariff have been implemented in some 
EAS17 member countries and have accelerated the deployment of renewable energy at 
appropriate levels. 
Energy supply security has become a top priority energy issue for the EAS17 region. 
Implementing EEC measures and increasing renewable energy shares will certainly 
contribute to maintaining regional energy security through the reduction of imported 
fossil fuel consumption and increasing the use of domestic energy. In addition, regional 
energy networks, such as the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline and the ASEAN Power Grid, 
and oil stockpiling are recommended to maintain energy supply security. Nuclear power 
generation is another option for securing the energy supply in this region.
The ERIA-EAS17 Outlook 2018 assessed the Intended Nationally Determined 
Contributions (INDC)/NDC reported by EAS17 countries. Some INDC/NDC might be 
too ambitious because CO2 emissions targets seem to be much higher than their APS 
targets. Governments should review their INDC/NDC applying energy outlook models 
and prepare appropriate CO2 emission targets.
This year, 2019, the Energy Outlook includes an estimation of the investment cost 
required for power generation and the whole energy infrastructure, including liquefied 
natural gas (LNG)–receiving terminals and oil refineries. The analysis results indicate that 
the EAS17 region will need an investment in power generation of around US$3.5 trillion 
for the BAU scenario and US$4 trillion for the APS to meet electricity demand by 2040. 
The APS will be higher than the BAU scenario because of the shift to low-carbon power 
sources, such as nuclear and renewable energy.


XXVII
The required investment cost of refinery and LNG-receiving terminals in the EAS17 
will be US$367 billion and US$132 billion, respectively, in the BAU scenario due to the 
increase in oil demand especially in the road transport sector and natural gas demand in 
the power generation sector. Investment in the APS is expected to be reduced to US$60 
billion for refineries and US$75 billion for LNG-receiving terminals, respectively, due to 
promotion of energy efficiency. These investment costs will be much lower than power 
generation. Power generation and refineries and LNG-receiving terminals have different 
capacity factors. Usually the capacity factor of power generation is much lower (around 
10%–33%) than refineries and LNG-receiving terminals.
Executive Summary


X
X
V
I
I
I
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019


1
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND SAVING 
POTENTIAL IN THE EAST ASIA 
REGION: MAIN REPORT 
1.   Introduction
Sustained population and economic growth in the East Asia Summit (EAS) region (the 
original EAS plus the United States of America [EAS17]) are the key drivers for the 
projected increasing energy demand for both primary and final energy consumption 
to nearly 50% from 2015 to 2040, reflecting an annual growth rate of about 1.6%. This 
increasing energy demand threatens the region’s energy security. Hence, potential energy 
saving is key to reducing energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. 
In 2007, leaders from member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations 
(ASEAN), as well as Australia, the People’s Republic of China (henceforth, China), India, 
Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand (the original EAS), adopted the Cebu 
Declaration, which focused on energy security. The leaders agreed to promote energy 
efficiency, new renewable energy, and the clean use of coal. Subsequently, the EAS Energy 
Cooperation Task Force (ECTF) was established in response to the Cebu Declaration, 
and Japan proposed to undertake a study on energy savings and the potential of reducing 
CO2 emissions. This is an agreed area of cooperation on which the Economic Research 
Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), through the EAS Energy Ministers Meeting, 
officially requested to support studies.
CHAPTER 1
Han Phoumin, Energy Economist, Economic Research Institute for 
ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Shigeru Kimura, Special Advisor on Energy Affairs to the ERIA 
President
Cecilya Laksmiwati Malik, Regional Consultant on Energy Policy 
Planning


2
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
This study shows the energy saving potential using the Business-As-Usual (BAU) 
scenario and Alternative Policy Scenarios (APS). The BAU scenario was developed for 
each EAS country, outlining future sectoral and economy-wide energy consumption, 
assuming no significant changes to government policies. The APS was set to examine the 
potential impacts if additional energy efficiency goals, action plans, or policies being or 
likely to be considered were developed. The difference between the BAU scenario and 
the APS in both final and primary energy supply represents potential energy savings. 
The difference in CO2 emissions between the two scenarios represents the potential for 
reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The scope of analysis of this outlook covers 
the original EAS – the original EAS composed of 10 ASEAN+6 countries mentioned on 
page 1 – plus the United States of America (US) (EAS17). Under the EAS’s initiative of 
energy cooperation is an energy research platform called the Energy Research Institutes 
Network, of which the US is a member. Therefore, the scope of this outlook extends to 
include the US. This publication uses the terms EAS and EAS17. The EAS refers to the 10 
ASEAN+6 countries before 2012 and 10 ASEAN+8 countries after 2013. EAS17 refers 
to the 10 ASEAN+7 countries, meaning, the original EAS plus the US.
The findings of this study continue to shed light on the policy implications for decision-
making to ensure that the region can enjoy both economic growth and investment 
opportunities without compromising the aversion to the threat to energy security and of 
environmental problems due to rising CO2 emissions.
1.1.  The East Asia Summit
The EAS17 is a collection of diverse countries, with wide variations amongst them in 
terms of per capita income, standards of living, energy resource endowments, climate, 
and energy consumption per capita. It is composed of the 10 ASEAN member countries – 
Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), 
Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam – and seven 
other countries – Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea), 
New Zealand, and the US.
Whereas some EAS17 countries are mature economies, the majority are developing 
economies. Several countries have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of less 
than US$11,000 (in 2010 prices1). Countries with mature economies have higher energy 
consumption per capita, whereas developing countries generally have lower energy 
consumption per capita. A large percentage of the people in developing countries still 
meet their energy needs using mainly traditional biomass fuels. 
1 
All US$ (US dollars) in this document are stated at constant year 2010 values unless specified.


3
Main Report
These differences partly explain why energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) goals, 
action plans, and policies are assigned different priorities across countries. Developed 
economies may be very keen in reducing energy consumption, whereas developing 
countries tend to emphasise economic growth and improving the standard of living. 
However, as the economies of these countries grow, energy consumption per capita is 
expected to grow as well. 
Despite the differences amongst the 17 countries, the leaders agreed that the EAS could 
play a significant role in community building’ which could be an important cornerstone in 
developing regional cooperation in the years to come. 
Table 1.1 shows the geographic, demographic, and economic profiles of the EAS17 
countries. Table 1.2 shows their economic structure and energy consumption profiles.
Table 1.1: Geographic, Demographic, and Economic Profiles, 2015
Land Area 
(thousand 
km2)1 
Population 
(million)
Population 
Density 
(persons/km2)
GDP (billion 
2010 US$)
GDP per 
Capita (2010 
US$/person)
Australia
7,682
23.79
3.10
1,355
56,953
Brunei Darussalam
5.3
0.42
79.03
14
33,344
Cambodia
177
15.52
87.91
16
1,025
China
9,388
1,371.22
146.06
8,910
6,498
India
2,973
1,311.05
440.96
2,288
1,745
Indonesia
1,812
258.16
142.51
988
3,828
Japan
365
126.96
348.25
5,986
47,150
Korea, Rep. of
97
51.07
523.89
1,267
24,801
Lao PDR
231
6.66
28.87
5
764
Malaysia
329
30.72
93.51
330
10,740
Myanmar
653
52.40
80.24
71
1,346
New Zealand
263
4.60
17.45
169
36,801
Philippines
298
101.72
341.14
266
2,616
Singapore
0.7
5.54
7,806.77
289
52,245
Thailand
511
65.73
128.66
394
5,989
Viet Nam
310
91.71
295.77
155
1,685
United States
9,147
321.42
35.14
16,598
51,638
GDP = gross domestic product, km2 = square kilometre.
Source: World Bank (2018) World Databank: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/source/world-development-indicators# (accessed: 27 May 2018).


4
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 1.2: Economic Structure and Energy Consumption, 2015
GDP
(Billion 
2010 
US$)
Share of 
Industry
in GDP, %
Share of 
Services
in GDP, %
Share of 
Agriculture
in GDP, %
Primary 
Energy 
Consumption 
(Mtoe)
Energy 
Consumption 
per Capita 
(toe/person)
Australia
1,355
25.4
72.0
2.6
125
5.3
Brunei Darussalam
14
61.4
37.5
1.1
3
7.8
Cambodia
16
29.8
41.5
28.6
7
0.5
China
8,910
40.9
50.2
8.8
2,973
2.2
India
2,288
29.6
52.9
17.5
851
0.6
Indonesia
988
41.3
44.7
13.9
229
0.9
Japan
5,986
28.9
70.0
1.1
430
3.4
Korea, Rep. of
1,267
38.3
59.4
2.3
273
5.3
Lao PDR
5
31.0
49.4
19.7
9
1.4
Malaysia
330
39.1
52.4
8.5
71
2.3
Myanmar
71
34.5
38.8
26.8
20
0.4
New Zealand
169
..
..
..
21
4.5
Philippines
266
30.9
58.8
10.3
47
0.5
Singapore
289
26.1
73.8
0.0
34
6.1
Thailand
394
36.4
54.9
8.7
135
2.1
Viet Nam
155
37.0
44.2
18.9
70
0.8
United States
16,598
20.0
78.9
1.1
2,188
6.8
GDP = gross domestic product, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: World Bank (2018) World Databank: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/source/world-development-indicators# (accessed 27 May 2018).
1.2.  Objective and Rationale 
This study aims to analyse the potential impacts of proposed additional energy-saving 
goals, action plans, and policies in the EAS17 region on energy consumption, by fuel and 
sector, and GHG emissions. The study also provides a platform for energy collaboration and 
capacity building amongst EAS17 countries on energy modelling and policy development.
The study supports the Cebu Declaration (ASEAN Secretariat, 2007), which highlighted 
several goals such as:
• 
improving the efficiency and environmental performance of fossil fuel use;
• 
reducing the dependence on conventional fuels through intensified EEC programmes, 
increased share of hydropower, expansion of renewable energy systems and biofuel 
production/utilisation, and, for interested parties, civilian nuclear power; and 


5
• 
mitigating GHG emissions through effective policies and measures, thus contributing 
to global climate change abatement.
The Government of Japan asked the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East 
Asia (ERIA) to conduct a study on energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction potential in 
the East Asia region. Japan is the coordinating country of the energy efficiency work stream 
under the ECTF. As a result, the Working Group for this study on the Analysis of Energy 
Savings Potential was convened. Members from all EAS17 countries are represented in 
the Working Group to support this study. 
2.   Data and Methodology 
2.1.  The Scenarios 
The study continues to examine two scenarios, as in the studies conducted annually from 
2007 to the present: a BAU scenario reflecting each country’s current goals, action plans, 
and policies; and an APS that includes additional goals, action plans, and policies reported 
every year to the East Asia Energy Ministers Meeting (EAS–EMM). The latest updated 
policies were reported at the 11th EAS–EMM held on 28 September 2017 in Manila, 
Philippines.
One might be tempted to call the APS a ‘maximum effort’ case, but that would not 
be accurate. One reason is that goals, action plans, and policies for reducing energy 
consumption are still relatively new in most countries. Many potential EEC policies and 
technological options have not been examined or incorporated in the APS. 
In 2014, the APS assumptions were grouped into four: (i) more efficient final energy 
consumption (APS1), (ii) more efficient thermal power generation (APS2), (iii) 
higher consumption of new and renewable energy (NRE) and biofuels (APS3), and 
(d) introduction or higher utilisation of nuclear energy (APS4). In addition to these 
four scenarios, the 2018 outlook also compares the APS to the Intended Nationally 
Determined Contributions (INDC) or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) if the 
countries can achieve their commitment pledged at the COP21.2
2 
COP stands for Conference of the Parties, referring to the countries that have signed up to the 1992 United Nations 
Framework Convention on Climate Change. The COP in Paris is the 21st such conference.
Main Report


6
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The energy models can estimate the individual impacts of these assumptions on both 
primary energy supply and CO2 emissions. The combination of these assumptions 
constitutes the assumptions of the APS. The main report highlights only the BAU scenario 
and the APS. However, each country report will analyse all the APS from APS1 to APS4. 
Detailed assumptions for each APS are follows:
• 
The assumptions in APS1 are the reduction targets in sectoral final energy 
consumption, assuming more efficient technologies are utilised and energy-saving 
practices are implemented in the industrial, transport, residential, commercial, and 
even the agricultural sectors for some countries. This scenario resulted in less primary 
energy and CO2 emissions in proportion to the reduction in final energy consumption.
• 
APS2 assumes the utilisation of more efficient thermal power plant technologies in 
the power sector. This assumption resulted in lower primary energy supply and CO2 
emissions in proportion to the efficiency improvement in generating thermal power. 
The most efficient coal and natural gas combined–cycle technologies are assumed to 
be utilised for new power plant construction in this scenario. 
• 
APS3 assumes higher contributions of NRE for electricity generation and utilisation 
of liquid biofuels in the transport sector. This results in lower CO2 emissions as NRE 
is considered carbon-neutral or would not emit additional CO2 in the atmosphere. 
However, primary energy supply may not decrease as NRE, like biomass and 
geothermal energy, is assumed to have lower efficiencies compared with fossil fuel–
fired generation when electricity generated from these NRE sources is converted into 
their primary energy equivalent.
• 
APS4 assumes the introduction of nuclear energy or a higher contribution of nuclear 
energy in countries already using this energy source. This scenario would produce lower 
CO2 emissions as nuclear energy emits minimal CO2. However, as the assumption of 
thermal efficiency when converting nuclear energy output into primary energy is only 
33%, primary energy supply is not expected to be lower than for the BAU scenario in 
this scenario.
All EAS17 countries are actively developing and implementing EEC goals, action plans, 
and policies, but progress so far has varied widely. Some countries are advanced in their 
efforts, whereas others are just getting started. A few countries already have significant 
energy-saving goals, action plans, and policies built into the BAU scenario, whereas others 
have only started to quantify their goals. However, significant potential does exist in these 
countries at the sectoral and economy-wide levels. 
Every country still has a great deal to learn from experience on what works and what does 
not work. It is worthwhile updating this study periodically, as the quality and scope of 
the national goals, action plans, and policies are likely to improve considerably over time, 
allowing for valuable collaboration across countries. 
 


7
2.2.  Data 
For consistency, the historical energy data used in this analysis came from the energy 
balances of the International Energy Agency (IEA) for Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries (IEA, 2017a; 2017b), 
except for the Lao PDR. Estimations of national energy data from the Lao PDR were made 
using the same methodology as that of the IEA. The socio-economic data for 17 countries 
were obtained from the World Bank’s online World Databank – World Development 
Indicators and Global Development Finance; the data of Myanmar were obtained from 
the United Nations Statistics Division statistical databases. Other data, such as those 
relating to transportation, buildings, and industrial production indices, were provided by 
the Working Group members from each EAS17 country where such data were available. 
Where official data were not available, estimates were obtained from other sources or 
developed by the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ).
2.3.  Methodology 
In 2007, the primary model used was IEEJ’s World Energy Outlook Model, which was also 
used in preparing the Asia/World Energy Outlook (IEEJ, 2014). In 2014, all 10 ASEAN 
member countries used their own energy models. The remaining countries provided the 
IEEJ their key assumptions on population and GDP growth; electric generation fuel mixes; 
and EEC goals, action plans, and policies. The IEEJ models were then used to develop 
energy projections for these countries. The next section briefly describes the energy 
models in this study. 
ASEAN countries. The energy models of ASEAN countries were developed using the 
Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) software, an accounting system 
used to develop projections of energy balance tables based on final energy consumption 
and energy input/output in the transformation sector. Final energy consumption is 
forecast using energy demand equations by energy and sector and future macroeconomic 
assumptions. For this study, all 10 member countries used the LEAP model. 
Other countries. Other countries used the IEEJ model, which has a macroeconomic 
module that calculates coefficients for various explanatory variables based on exogenously 
specified GDP growth rates. The macroeconomic module also projects prices for natural 
gas and coal based on exogenously specified oil price assumptions. Demand equations 
are econometrically calculated in another module using historical data, and future 
parameters are projected using the explanatory variables from the macroeconomic 
module. An econometric approach means that future demand and supply will be heavily 
Main Report


8
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
influenced by historical trends. However, the supply of energy and new technologies are 
treated exogenously. For electricity generation, the Working Group members were asked 
to specify assumptions about the future electricity generation mix in their respective 
countries by energy source. These assumptions were used to determine the future 
electricity generation mix. 
3.   Assumptions of the Study
Growth in energy consumption and GHG emissions is driven by various socio-economic 
factors. In the EAS17 region, these factors – including increasing population, sustained 
economic growth, increasing vehicle ownership, and increasing access to electricity – will 
tend to increase energy demand. Together they create what might be called a huge growth 
‘headwind’ that works against efforts to limit energy consumption. Understanding the 
nature and size of this ‘headwind’ is critical for any analysis of energy demand in the region. 
However, an increase in consumption of energy services is fundamental for achieving a 
range of socio-economic development goals. 
This section discusses the assumptions on key socio-economic indicators and energy 
policies for the EAS17 countries until 2040.
3.1.  Population 
In the models used for this study, changes in population to 2040 are set exogenously. 
No difference in population between the BAU scenario and the APS is assumed. The 
EAS17 countries, except China, submitted assumed changes in population based on the 
population projections from the United Nations. 
In 2015, the total population in the EAS17 region was about 3.84 billion. Based on the 
forecasts, it is projected to increase at an average annual rate of about 0.5%, reaching 
about 4.36 billion in 2040. Figure 1.1 shows the 2015 and projected 2040 population by 
country. 
Brunei Darussalam is generally assumed to have the fastest population growth rate, 
although the country has high per capita income (Figure 1.2). Except Brunei, the fastest 
growth rate is assumed to be in developing countries. China and Thailand are notable and 
significant exceptions, as they are expected to have relatively modest population growth. 
Nevertheless, by 2040, India and China are assumed to account for around 70% of the 


9
total population in the EAS17 region, with populations of around 1.39 billion for China 
and 1.61 billion for India. 
Countries with more mature economies tend to have slower population growth. New 
Zealand, the US, and Singapore are assumed to have low, but still significant, population 
growth. That of Korea is assumed to be roughly stable. Japan’s population is assumed to 
decline slowly throughout the projection period as the population continues to age.
Figure 1.1: Assumed Population in the EAS17 Region, 2015 and 2040
AUS = Australia, BRN = Brunei, EAS = East Asia Summit, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, IND = India, INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, 
 
KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines, SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand,  
VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America)
Source: World Bank (2018).
2015
2040
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Population (Million)
24
0.4
16
258
127
114
51
7
31
52
9
40
52
5
6
66
66
92
107
321
376
102
5
7
148
63
31
0.7
23
317
1,371
1,311
1,391
1,608
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10
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.2: Assumed Average Annual Growth in Population, 2015–2040
AUS = Australia, BRN = Brunei, EAS = East Asia Summit, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, IND = India, INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, 
 
KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines, SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand,  
VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America)
Source: World Bank (2018).
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Total
Population Growth Rate  (%/year)
1.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
1.3
1.0
-0.4
2.3
1.5
1.5
3.2.  Economic Activity 
In the models used for this study, assumed changes in economic output to 2040 were 
set exogenously. GDP data (in 2010 US$) were obtained from the World Development 
Indicators of the World Bank (2018). Assumed GDP growth rates to 2040 were submitted 
by all EAS17 countries. In general, these assumptions considered actual GDP growth 
rates from 2005 to 2015, which already reflect the economic recession and recovery in 
the US and other countries. No difference in growth rates was assumed between BAU 
and the APS. 
In 2015, the total GDP in the EAS17 region was about US$39 trillion in 2010 US$ constant 
price, accounting for about 51% of global GDP. The GDP of the region is assumed to grow 
at an average annual rate of about 3.5% from 2015 to 2040. This implies that, by 2040, 
total regional GDP will reach about US$91.5 trillion in 2010 US$ constant price. 


11
China is projected to be the largest economy in terms of real GDP (2010 US$ constant 
price) of about US$31.1 trillion, followed by the US of about US$27.7 trillion by 2040. 
India and Japan are also projected to be the next largest economies with projected GDPs 
of about US$11.5 trillion and $7.7 trillion, respectively, at 2010 US$ constant price by 
2040 (Figure 1.3).
Long-term economic growth rates are assumed to be quite high in the developing 
countries, with the highest growth rates in India, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Philippines, Viet 
Nam, and Cambodia (Figure 1.4). Economic growth in other developing countries is also 
assumed to be relatively rapid. Brunei is expected to also have high GDP annual growth 
rate. For developed countries in EAS17, the US, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, and Australia 
are expected to have moderate annual GDP growth rate. Due to their large economies, 
the rapid growth in China, India, and Indonesia, together with the US, are likely to be 
especially significant for energy demand. 
Figure 1.3: Assumed Economic Activity in the EAS17 Region, 2015 and 2040
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Real GDP (Billion US$ in 2000 Prices)
2015
2040
1,355
2,510
8,910
11,486
2,288
4,052
5,986
1,267
2,272
7,705
988
31,116
14
55
16
5
330
71
169
289
155
394
266
61
23
775
316
276
511
663
16,598
27, 667
999
1,147
AUS = Australia, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, EAS = East Asia Summit, GDP = gross domestic product, IND = India, 
 
INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines,  
SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: World Bank (2018).
Main Report


12
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.4: Assumed Average Annual Growth in GDP, 2015–2040
AUS = Australia, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, GDP = gross domestic product, IND = India, INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, 
KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines, SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, 
VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: World Bank (2018).
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7,0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Total
Real GDP Growth Rate  (%/year)
 2.5 
0.1
2.4
3.8
6.7
 5.8 
 2.3 
 6.2 
 6.0 
 2.0 
 6.0 
2.1
3.5
 6.2 
 3.5 
1.0
 5.5 
 5.1 
 5.6 
The average real GDP (2010 US$ constant) per capita in the EAS17 region is assumed to 
increase from about US$10,186 in 2015 to about US$21,016 in 2040. However, there 
are, and will continue to be, significant differences in GDP per capita amongst EAS17 
countries (Figure 1.5). In 2015, per capita GDP (constant price US$ 2010) ranged from 
about US$1,025 in Cambodia to over US$50,000 in Australia, the US, and Singapore. In 
2040, per capita GDP is assumed to range from about US$2,495 in the Lao PDR to over 
US$80,000 in Australia.


13
3.3.  Electricity Generation 
3.3.1. 
 Electricity generation thermal efficiency
The thermal efficiency of electricity generation reflects the amount of fuel required to 
generate a unit of electricity. Thermal efficiency was another exogenous assumption 
used in this study. Base year 2015 thermal efficiencies by fuel type (coal, gas, and oil) 
were derived from fossil fuel input and fuel output as electricity production. Thermal 
efficiencies by fuel (coal, gas, and oil) were projected by the following countries: Brunei 
Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, 
Thailand, and Viet Nam, and growth rates in thermal efficiency were derived from these 
projections. For the remaining countries, assumptions about the potential changes in 
thermal efficiency were based on IEEJ’s Asia/World Energy Outlook 2017.
Figure 1.5: Real GDP per Capita, 2015 and 2040
AUS = Australia, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, EAS = East Asia Summit, GDP = gross domestic product, IND = India, 
 
INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines,  
SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: World Bank (2018).
AUS
BRN
KHM CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Total
Real GDP per Capita (US$ in 2000 Prices/Person)
2015
2040
56,935
81,610
74,919
33,344
1,025
2,694
6,498
22,361
1,745
7,144
3,828
12,779
47,150
67,413
24,801
43,534
1,566
2,495
10,740
19,582
1,346
2,616
5,989
1,685
5,050
7,771
15,076
51,638
73,646
21,018
10,186
6,194
36,801
52,245
50,361
75,843
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Main Report


14
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Thermal efficiencies may differ significantly amongst countries due to differences in 
technological availability, age, cost of technology, temperatures, and the cost and 
availability of fuel inputs. Thermal efficiency in the EAS17 countries is expected to improve 
considerably over time in the BAU scenario as more advanced generation technologies, 
such as natural gas combined-cycle and supercritical coal-fired power plants, become 
available. In many countries, there are also assumed to be additional improvements in the 
APS (Figures 1.6 and 1.7).
Figure 1.6: Thermal Efficiencies of Gas Electricity Generation
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, AUS = Australia, BAU = Business-As-Usual, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, IND = India,  
INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines,  
SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)’s database.
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Gas Thermal Efficiency (%)
38
28
-
-
- -
37
37
48
48
48
48
50
52
49
57
59
60
43
44
38
40
49
49
52
52
51
51
55
55
55
61
60
49
56
56
57
57
40
28
40
50
45
55
51
49
52
45
48
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
48
48


15
Figure 1.7: Thermal Efficiencies of Coal Electricity Generation
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, AUS = Australia, BAU = Business-As-Usual scenario, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China, IND = India, 
INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines,  
SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)’s database.
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
Coal Thermal Efficiency (%)
35
-
45
45
38
32
38
39
34
37
37
35
38
37
42
43
40
35
35
35
35
39
30
34
42
42
42
20
20
47
36
34
34
37
20
49
40
42
35
38
45
36
45
46
42
43
38
40
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
-
- -
3.4.1. 
  Electricity generation fuel mix
The combination of fuels used in electricity generation differs amongst countries, 
reflecting both historical and current conditions, including access to and cost of resources 
and technology. It was, therefore, an exogenous input to the model. It is an important 
input not only because it is a key driver of demand for primary fuels, but also because the 
fuel mix used can have important implications for GHG emissions. Figure 1.8 shows the 
projected electricity generation mix.
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16
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.8: Share of Fuel Type in the Electricity Generation Mix in the EAS17 Region
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, AUS = Australia, BAU = Business-As-Usual, BRN = Brunei, KHM = Cambodia, CHN = China,  
 
EAS = East Asia Summit, IND = India, INA = Indonesia, JPN = Japan, KOR = Korea, LAO = Lao PDR, MAS = Malaysia, MMR = Myanmar, 
 
NZL = New Zealand, PHI = Philippines, SIN = Singapore, THA = Thailand, VNM = Viet Nam, USA = United States of America.
Source: Country Energy Saving Potential Report,  sub-report of this main report (2016).
AUS
BRN
KHM
CHN
IND
INA
JPN
KOR
LAO
MAS
MMR
NZL
PHI
SIN
THA
VNM
USA
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
BAU
2015
2040
APS
Others
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Coal is projected to remain the dominant source of electricity generation in the EAS17 
region in both the BAU scenario and the APS. However, the share of coal in electricity 
generation in the region is projected to decline from about 48% in BAU to about 35.8% in 
the APS by 2040, as countries are assumed to implement policies designed to reduce the 
emissions intensity of electricity generation. In the APS, the share of lower emission fuels 
such as hydro, nuclear, and non-hydro renewable energy are expected to be higher than in 
the BAU scenario on average. The use of oil in generating electricity is assumed to decline 
to almost negligible levels across the region. 
3.4.2  Access to electricity
Many households in developing countries lack access to electricity, and resolving this 
problem is a major development goal. At the Working Group meetings, several developing 
countries reported on initiatives to significantly expand access to electricity in their 
countries by 2040. Although this increasing access to electricity is one of the drivers 
of increasing energy demand in the EAS17 region, it is not explicitly represented in the 
model used for this study. Nevertheless, the impact of increasing access to electricity 
on electricity demand should be largely reflected through the increased demand for 


17
electricity because of the relatively rapid GDP growth that is assumed to be experienced 
in these same countries.
Table 1.3 shows electricity access in EAS17. It also informs the progress of access 
to electricity in urban versus rural areas in 1990–2012, and a national data on energy 
access in 2016. Whereas tremendous progress of 100% energy access has been observed 
in Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Korea, Japan, 
Australia, the US, and New Zealand, some Southeast Asian countries have struggled to 
improve energy access for their population.
Table 1.3: Access to Electricity, %
1990
2000
2012
2016
Rural 
Urban National
Rural 
Urban
National
Rural 
Urban National National
Cambodia
5.0
36.6
19.2
9.0
49.9
16.6
18.8
91.3
31.1
49.8
Myanmar
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
32*
57.0
Lao PDR
39.7
100.0
51.5
40.0
68.7
46.3
54.8
97.9
70.0
87.1
Brunei Darussalam
56.4
70.5
65.7
61.2
72.7
69.4
67.1
79.0
76.2
100.0
India
38.7
86.5
50.9
48.4
98.6
62.3
69.7
98.2
78.7
84.5
Indonesia
.
.
66.9
.
.
.
.
.
74**
97.6
Viet Nam
84.5
100.0
87.9
86.6
96.9
89.1
97.7
100.0
99.0
100.0
Philippines
46.4
85.5
65.4
51.9
92.3
71.3
81.5
93.7
87.5
91.0
Malaysia
89.2
97.3
93.2
93.0
98.5
96.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Singapore
99.0
100.0
100.0
99.0
100.0
100.0
99.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Thailand
82.0
75.2
80.0
87.0
72.6
82.5
99.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
Australia
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
China
92.0
100.0
94.2
95.3
100.0
98.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Korea, Rep. of
92.0
95.0
94.2
95.3
98.7
98.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Japan
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
New Zealand
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
United States
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
. = missing value. 
* The number was taken from a 2014 presentation by Khin Seint Wint.
** The number was taken from ACE, 2013.
Source: World Bank (2018).
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18
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.4.  Use of Biofuels 
Working Group members from each country were asked to include information on the 
potential use of biofuels in the BAU scenario and the APS. Some, but not all, countries 
in the EAS17 region plan to increase the contribution of biofuels in the transport fuel 
mix to enhance energy security or meet other policy objectives. For China and Japan, 
the assumptions on the use of biofuels were based on IEEJ’s Asia/World Energy Outlook 
2017. Table 1.4 summarises the assumptions regarding the use of biofuels. 
Table 1.4: Assumptions on Biofuels – Summary by Country
Country
Period
Assumptions
Australia
No targets on biofuels
Brunei Darussalam
No targets on biofuels
Cambodia
No targets on biofuels
China
2030
BAU: 20 billion litres; APS: 60 billion litres
India
2017
20% blending of biofuels, both for biodiesel and bioethanol
Indonesia
2025
Bioethanol: 15% blend from 3% to 7% in 2010
Biodiesel: 20% blend from 1% to 5% in 2010
Japan
2005–2030
No biofuel targets submitted
Korea, Rep. of
2012
Replace 1.4% of diesel with biodiesel
2020
Replace 6.7% of diesel with biodiesel
2030
Replace 11.4% of diesel with biodiesel
Lao PDR
2030
Utilise biofuels equivalent to 10% of road transport fuels
Malaysia
2030
Replace 5% of diesel in road transport with biodiesel
Myanmar
2020
Replace 8% of transport diesel with biodiesel
New Zealand
2012–2030
Mandatory biofuels sales obligation of 3.4% by 2012 
Philippines
2025–2035
BAU: The Biofuels Law requires 10% bioethanol/gasoline blend and 2% 
biodiesel/diesel blend 2 years from enactment of the law (roughly 2009)
APS: Displace 20% of diesel and gasoline with biofuels by 2025
Thailand
Biofuels to displace 12.2% of transport energy demand
United States
2011–2022
Renewable Fuels Standard – The US Environmental Protection Agency  
oversees the world’s most ambitious programme to promote ethanol. 
The Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2), created by the 2007 Energy 
Independence and Security Act , requires adding continually increasing 
volumes of renewable sources into the country’s fuel supply – growing 
from nearly 49 billion litres (13 billion gallons) in 2011 up to 136 billion litres 
(36 billion gallons) by 2022.
Viet Nam 
2020
10 % ethanol blend in gasoline for road transport
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Country Energy Saving Potential Report, sub-report of this main report (2018).


19
The largest increases in biofuel consumption in the APS are expected in the US, India, and 
China. In all countries, biofuels are expected to meet only a small portion of the transport 
fuel demand by 2040. 
3.5.  Crude Oil Price
Figure 1.9 depicts the oil price assumptions used in the modelling. In the Reference 
Scenario, the crude oil prices were US$286/tons of oil equivalent (toe) in 2016; these 
will rise gradually to US$653/toe by 2030 and to US$791/toe in 2040. The increase in 
the oil price in 2030 and 2040 are due to combined factors such as robust demand growth 
in non-OECD countries, new emerging geopolitical risks and financial factors, oil supply 
constraints reflecting rising depletion rates for oil fields, etc.
Figure 1.9: Real Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal Imported Price Assumptions 
(Real prices in 2016 US$) 
toe = tons of oil equivalent. 
Note: Crude oil price assumptions start from 2016 onwards.
Source: IEEJ’s oil price assumptions (2017). 
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
$/toe
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
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20
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.6.  Assumptions of Fossil Fuel Production Outlook
3.6.1. 
 Analytical method
The fossil fuel production outlook is generated through the ‘expert’s judgment’ of 
the Delphi process. First, a historical data set of production volume is collected from 
British Petroleum and IEA statistics. The data are used to understand the transition 
of production volume in each country. Second, reference was made to the IEA World 
Energy Outlook 2017 and the IEEJ Asia-World Energy Outlook 2016 to understand the 
future direction of changes in production volume. The estimated fossil fuel outlook also 
utilises supplementary information such as the national plans and targets provided by 
each Working Group member and the country analyses issued by the Energy Information 
Agency (Table 1.5).
3.6.2. 
 Results of the fossil fuel production outlook 
Tables 1.6 to 1.8 present the assumption of fossil fuel production outlook. The results 
indicated that the following:
Table 1.5: Reference Materials and their Estimation
IEA WEO 2017
IEEJ AWEO 2017
Oil
• Employ the New Policies Scenario, amongst the 
Current Policies Scenario, 450 Scenario, Low Oil 
Price Scenario.
• Production increase until 2020 and decline after 
that time.
• Employ the Advanced Technologies Case, 
amongst the Reference Case, Advanced 
Technologies Case, Low Oil Price Case.
• Production is estimated to decrease in 
many Asian countries.
Natural gas
• Employ the New Policies Scenario.
• Production steadily increases towards 2040.
• Employ the Advanced Technologies Case.
• Production is estimated to increase in line 
with IEA WEO 2017.
Coal
• Employ the New Policies Scenario.
• Production increase in major producing 
countries, except China where demand for 
power generation and industry sectors are 
estimated to decrease.
• Employ the Advanced Technologies Case.
• Production is estimated to decrease as 
demand declines.
AWEO = Asia/World Energy Outlook, IEA = International Energy Agency;  
 
 
 
 
 
IEEJ = Institute of Energy Economics, Japan; WEO = World Energy Outlook.
Source: Working Group of the study (2016) and IEA (2017b).


21
• 
For crude oil, many countries will not able to maintain recent production levels except 
in some cases such as Australia, the Philippines, and the US where oil production 
amount surpasses that of 2014. In most countries, oil reserves are estimated to be 
depleted in the future, an estimate based on the sie of a country’s oil reservoir (ERIA, 
2015). Although some countries have untapped oil resources, their size seems too 
small to maintain current production amounts. In addition, insufficient investment in 
exploring new fields will hamper increasing production amounts. Furthermore, some 
fields may be too costly to exploit due to their geographical condition, such as deep 
sea and mountainous areas. However, the oil production of the US is the largest in 
the EAS17 region; it can provide more oil into the market and ease the tension of oil 
shortage if any political tension occurs in some Middle East and African countries.
• 
For natural gas, production is estimated to increase in almost all gas-producing 
countries. Overall, the region is relatively rich in natural gas resources compared to 
oil. Therefore, many countries are promoting the production of indigenous natural 
gas. Australia, China, and the US, which are richly endowed with conventional and 
unconventional gas resources, are expected to increase production, with Australia 
and the US aiming to export and China, for domestic supply. Some countries, such 
as Viet Nam, put natural gas at the centre of their energy mix, so they are boosting 
production activities.
• 
Coal (thermal + coking) production is estimated to decrease in China, the major coal-
producing country, whereas India, the second-largest coal consumer, will increase 
production. Indonesia is also expected to increase production by 2040. The energy 
policies are different amongst China, the US, India, and Indonesia, the largest coal 
producers and consumers in the region. China and the US have changed their policies 
to pursue cleaner energy use; so they intend to curb coal consumption. Indonesia and 
India, however, intend to ensure energy supply at an affordable price, and thus plan to 
increase domestically available cheap energy sources such as coal. Australia, a major 
coal exporter, is estimated to decrease production as global coal demand declines 
due to the gradual shift to a low-carbon society. Japan and the Republic of Korea as 
consumers are likely to use coal for energy security although they intend to diversify 
the energy mix, gradually reducing coal consumption in the future.
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22
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 1.6: Production Outlook of Oil
Oil Production (1,000b/d)
2014
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Australia
448 
600 
650 
650 
600 
600 
Brunei
138 
140 
130 
130 
120 
120 
China
4,341 
4,300 
4,250 
4,200 
4,100 
4,000 
India
895 
740 
680 
680 
700 
720 
Indonesia
852 
830 
820 
800 
780 
770 
Japan 
17 
15 
15 
15 
15 
15 
Korea, Rep. of 
20 
15 
15 
15 
15 
15 
Malaysia
666 
650 
620 
600 
600 
600 
Myanmar 
20 
20 
20 
20 
20 
20 
Philippines 
24 
39 
35 
30 
30 
30 
New Zealand
47 
27 
10 
3 
1 
1 
Thailand
453 
480 
470 
460 
450 
440 
United States 
8,900* 
10,700 
11,380 
11,700 
11,850 
11,900 
Viet Nam
365 
360 
350 
330 
320 
320 
Total EAS
17,186
18,916 
19,445 
19,633 
19,601 
19,551 
*The number is in year 2016, b/d = barrel/day. 
Source: IEA (2017b).
Table 1.7: Production Outlook of Gas
Gas Production (bcm)
2014
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Australia
58.8 
133.0 
144.5 
165.5 
175.5 
174.0 
Brunei
11.9 
12.5 
12.5 
12.5 
12.5 
12.5 
China
134.5 
172.0 
212.0 
255.0 
299.0 
342.0 
India
31.7 
38.0 
45.0 
55.0 
69.0 
89.0 
Indonesia
73.4 
80.0 
82.0 
83.0 
84.0 
85.0 
Japan 
3.9 
3.5 
3.0 
3.0 
3.0 
2.5 
Korea, Rep. of 
0.5 
0.5 
0.5 
0.5 
0.5 
0.5 
Malaysia
66.4 
68.0 
70.0 
67.0 
65.0 
65.0 
Myanmar 
16.8 
17.5 
18.5 
18.5 
18.5 
18.5 
Philippines 
3.4 
3.0 
4.0 
7.0 
7.0 
8.0 
New Zealand
5.4 
4.0 
3.0 
2.0 
1.0 
1.0 
Thailand
42.1 
42.0 
41.0 
40.0 
40.0 
40.0 
United States 
27,000*
32,700
35,800
37,900
38,800
40,200
Viet Nam
11.1 
11.0 
15.0 
18.0 
22.0 
25.0 
Total EAS
27,460
33,285
36,451
38,627
39,597
41,063
*The number is in year 2016, bcm = billion cubic metre. 
Source: IEA (2017b).


23
Table 1.8: Production Outlook of Coal
Coal Production (Mton)
2014
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Australia
431 
437 
421 
412 
411 
405 
China
3,532 
3,548 
3,383 
3,286 
3,132 
2,944 
India
604 
627 
650 
624 
652 
683 
Indonesia
444 
471 
476 
478 
478 
480 
Korea, Rep. of 
2.09 
1.76 
1.20 
0.63 
0.07 
0 
Lao PDR
0.5 
0.7 
0.7 
0.7 
0.7 
0.7 
Malaysia
3.0 
3.2 
3.6 
4.0 
4.0 
4.0 
Myanmar 
0.8 
0.6 
0.8 
0.9 
1.0 
1.0 
Philippines 
7.3 
7.1 
7.9 
9 
9 
9 
New Zealand
4.9 
4.1 
4.0 
3.9 
3.8 
3.7 
Thailand
18 
19 
18 
14 
10 
7 
Viet Nam
42 
42 
41 
42 
49 
53 
United States 
741* 
731 
738 
750 
736 
746 
Total EAS
5,831 
5,892 
5,745 
5,625 
5,488 
5,337 
*The number is in year 2016, Mton = million tons.
Source: IEA (2017b).
3.7.  Energy-Saving Goals
Collected from each Working Group member from the EAS17 countries was information 
about the potential energy savings achievable under specific policy initiatives to increase 
energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption. Each member specified which policies 
exist and should be applied to the BAU scenario, and which are proposed and should 
be applied only to the APS. Quantitative energy savings were estimated based on the 
countries’ own assumptions and modelling results. Table 1.9 summarises energy-saving 
goals, action plans, and policies collected from each EAS Working Group member in 2017.
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24
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 1.9: Summary of Energy Saving Goals, Action Plans, and Policies Collected 
from Each EAS17 Working Group Member 
Indicator
Goals
Australia
Carbon pollution
Australia’s emissions reduction target of 26%–28% below 2005 
level by 2030
Brunei Darussalam
Energy intensity
45% improvement by 2035 from 2005 level
Cambodia 
Carbon pollution
Reduce 3,100 Gg  CO2 equivalent (approximately 1.8 Mt CO2e.) 
compared to baseline emission 11,600 Gg Co2e by 2030
China
Energy intensity
By 2020, energy consumption per unit of GDP will drop by 15% 
from 2016
India
Not submitted
Indonesia
Energy intensity
Reduce by 1% per year until 2025
Japan
Energy intensity
30% improvement in energy intensity in 2030 from 2003 level
Korea, Rep. of
Energy intensity
46.7% reduction by 2030 from 2006 level
Lao PDR
Final energy consumption • 10% reduction from BAU by 2030
• 5% energy intensity reduction by 2030, from 2015.
Malaysia
Final energy consumption 8.6% reduction from BAU by 2020
Myanmar
TPES
• 5% reduction from BAU by 2020
• 10% reduction from BAU by 2030
(Final energy consumption: 5% by 2020 and 8% by 2030).
New Zealand
Energy intensity
1.3% per year improvement from 2011 to 2016
Philippines
Final energy consumption 10% savings from BAU by 2030
Singapore
Energy intensity
• 20% reduction by 2020 from 2005 level
• 35% reduction by 2030 from 2005 level
Thailand
Energy intensity
• 15% reduction by 2020 from 2005 level
• 25% reduction by 2030 from 2005 level
Viet Nam 
Final energy consumption • 3%–5% savings from BAU until 2015
• 5%–8% savings from BAU after 2015
United States
This Vision for the 
National Action Plan 
for Energy Efficiency 
targets  achieving all 
cost-effective energy 
efficiency by 2025
• The action plan presents 10 implementation goals for states, 
utilities, and other stakeholders to consider achieving this goal; 
describes what 2025 might look like if the goal is achieved; and 
provides a means for measuring progress. It is a framework for 
implementing the five policy recommendations of the Action 
Plan, announced in July 2006, which can be modified and 
improved over time.
BAU = Business-As-Usual, EAS = East Asia Summit, Gg CO2 = greenhouse gas emissions, TPES = total primary energy supply. 
Source: EAS Energy Outlook and Saving Potential Working Group Members (2017).
3.8.  Economic Growth and Climate Change Mitigation
Economic growth in the EAS countries is needed to provide for the region’s growing 
population and improving living standards. Economic growth is assumed to exceed 
population growth in 2015–2040. This relatively strong economic growth and rising per 
capita incomes in the EAS countries could mean significant reductions in poverty and 
significant increases in living standards for hundreds of millions of people. 
With economic growth will come increasing access to, and demand for, electricity and 
rising levels of vehicle ownership. The continued reliance on fossil fuels to meet the 
increases in energy demand may be associated with increased GHG emissions and climate 


25
change challenges unless low-emission technologies are used. Even if fossil fuel resources 
are enough, most of the fuel will likely be imported from other regions, and no assurance 
can be given that they will be secure or affordable. 
Fossil fuel consumption using today’s technologies will lead to considerable increases in 
greenhouse gas emissions, potentially creating new longer-term threats to the region’s 
living standards and economic vitality. Growing adverse health impacts throughout the 
region are also likely because of particulate emissions.
Given this, considerable improvements in energy efficiency and greater uptake of cleaner 
energy technologies and renewable energy are required to address a range of energy, 
environmental, and economic challenges. Yet, efforts to limit energy consumption and 
GHGs will be very challenging given such strong growth. However, as will be discussed 
in Section 4.3, sharp reductions in GHGs are being called for by scientists. This huge 
‘headwind’ working against EEC and emission reductions poses a challenge to the EAS 
region that needs to be addressed.
4. 
   Energy Outlook for the EAS Region
4.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario
4.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Between 2015 and 2040, total final energy consumption3 in the EAS17 countries is 
projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.6%, reflecting the assumed 3.5% annual 
GDP growth and 0.5% population growth. Final energy consumption is projected to 
increase from 5,020 Mtoe in 2015 to 7,410 Mtoe in 2040. By sector, transport energy 
demand is projected to grow moderately about 1.7% per year, and its energy consumption 
share is projected to be 26.1% by 2040. For the industry sector, its annual growth rate in 
2015–2040 is just about 1.6% per year, but its energy consumption share is projected to 
be the largest at about 34.1% by 2040. The demand of the commercial and residential 
(‘others’) sector will grow at a lower rate of 1.3% per year, slower than that of the industry 
sector. However, its energy consumption share is projected to be 29.4%, the second-
largest share after the industry sector. Figure 1.10 shows final energy consumption by 
sector under the BAU scenario in EAS17 from 1990 to 2040. Figure 1.11 shows details of 
sectoral shares in final energy consumption.
3 
Refers to energy in the form in which it is consumed, i.e. including electricity, but not including the fuels and/or 
energy sources used to generate electricity.
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26
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.10: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040) 
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Figure 1.11: Final Energy Consumption Share by Sector (1990–2040)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy


27
Figures 1.12 and 1.13 show final energy consumption and shares by fuel type in the EAS17 
under the BAU scenario from 1990 to 2040. By energy source, electricity and natural 
gas demand in the BAU scenario are projected to show the fastest growth, increasing 
by 2.3% and 2.1% per year, respectively, but their share will just be 25.1% for electricity 
and 13.2% for natural gas. Although oil will retain the largest share at 37.5% of total final 
energy consumption, it is projected to grow at a lower rate of 1.5% per year in 2015–2040, 
reaching 2,779 Mtoe in 2040. Generally, oil share slightly dropped from 37.7% in 2015 to 
37.5% in 2040. Coal demand will grow at a slower rate of 1.2% per year on average from 
2015 to 2040, reaching 1,218 Mtoe in 2040. The share of other fuels such as biomass 
will decline from 9.9% in 2015 to 6.2% in 2040. This slow growth is due to the gradual shift 
from non-commercial biomass to conventional fuels like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) 
and electricity in the residential sector.
Figure 1.12: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040) 
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
8,000.0
7,000.0
6,000.0
5,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
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28
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.13: Final Energy Consumption Share by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
Source: Authors’ calculation.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
4.1.2. 
 Primary energy supply
Figure 1.14 shows primary energy supply in EAS17 from 1990 to 2040. Primary energy 
supply4  in the region is projected to grow at a slightly slower pace, of 1.5% per year, as final 
energy consumption grows at 1.6% per year. EAS17 primary energy supply is projected to 
increase from 7,488 Mtoe in 2015 to 10,943 Mtoe in 2040. Coal will still comprise the 
largest share of primary energy supply, but its growth is expected to be slower, increasing 
at 1.3% per year. Consequently, the share of coal in total primary energy supply (TPES) is 
forecast to decline from 41.4% in 2015 to 38.9% in 2040. 
4 
Refers to energy in its raw form, before any transformations, most significantly, the generation of electricity. 


29
Amongst fossil sources of energy, natural gas is projected to see moderate growth in 2015–
2040, increasing at an annual average rate of 2.2% Its share in the total will consequently 
increase from 15.4% (equivalent to 1,155 Mtoe) in 2015 to 18% (equivalent to 1,972 
Mtoe) in 2040. Nuclear energy is projected to increase at a similar rate of natural gas rate 
of 2.2% per year on average. Its share will grow from 4.2% in 2015 to 5% in 2040. This is 
due to the assumed resumption of nuclear power generation in Japan and the expansion 
of nuclear power generation capacity in China and India. Geothermal is projected to grow 
the fastest at 3.1% per year during 2015–2040. However, its share is projected to be 
relatively small, about 0.9% by 2040, increasing from 0.6% in 2015.
Amongst the energy sources, others – which is made up of solar, wind, and solid and liquid 
biofuels – will see the slowest growth rate of 1.3% Consequently, the share of these other 
sources of energy will decrease from 8.4% in 2015 to 8.1% in 2040. The growth of hydro 
will also be low at 1.3% per year and its share will remain low, at around 1.9% by 2040. 
Figure 1.15 shows the shares of each energy source in the total primary energy mix in 
1990–2040.
Figure 1.14: Primary Energy Supply in EAS17 (1990–2040)
EAS = East Asia Summit , Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
12,000.0
10,000.0
8,000.0
6,000.0
4,000.0
2,000.0
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.15: Share of Primary Energy Mix by Source (1990–2040)
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
Source: Authors’ calculation.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
4.1.3. 
  Power generation in EAS17
Figure 1.16 shows the power generation output in the EAS region. Total power generation 
is projected to grow at 2.3% per year on average, from 2015 (equivalent to 14,290 
terawatt-hours [TWh]) to 2040 (equivalent to 25,030 TWh). However, the growth rate 
in 1990–2015 was 3.9%, nearly twice as high as the projected growth rate in 2015–2040.


31
Figure 1.17 shows the share of each energy source in electricity generation from 1990 to 
2040. The share of coal-fired generation is projected to continue to be the largest and will 
be about 48% in 2040, a drop from the 53.8% share in 2015. The share of natural gas is 
projected to increase from 17.8% in 2015 to 19.4% in 2040. Nuclear share (8.5% in 2015) 
is forecast to decrease to 8.3% in 2040. The share of geothermal (0.4% in 2015) and other 
(wind, solar, biomass, etc.) sources at 5.7% will also increase to 0.5% and 13.7% in 2040, 
respectively. The share of oil and hydro are projected to decrease, from 1.6% to 0.4% and 
from 12.3% to 9.7% respectively, over the same period.
Figure 1.16: Power Generation in EAS17 (1990–2040)
EAS = East Asia Summit, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
30,000.0
25,000.0
20,000.0
15,000.0
10,000.0
5,000.0
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.17: Share of Power Generation Mix in EAS17 (1990–2040)
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
EAS = East Asia Summit.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Figure 1.18 shows the thermal efficiency of coal-, oil-, and natural gas–fired power 
plants from 1990 to 2040. Thermal efficiency is projected to grow in EAS17 from 2015 
to 2040 due to improvement in electricity generation technologies like combined-cycle 
gas turbines and advanced coal power plant technologies. The efficiency of coal thermal 
power plants, which is a mix of old and new power plants, will increase slightly, from 37.5% 
in 2015 to 40.1% in 2040. The efficiency of natural gas power plants will also increase, 
from 47.9% in 2015 to 51.3% in 2040. Oil power plants, which will not be used very much 
in the future, will deteriorate in efficiency, slightly increasing from 36.3% in 2015 to 37.7% 
in 2040.


33
4.1.4. 
 Primary energy intensity and per capita energy demand
Figure 1.19 shows the energy intensity and energy per capita from 1990 to 2040. For the 
BAU scenario, energy intensity in the EAS is projected to decline by 38%, from 192 toe/
million US$ (constant 2010) in 2015 to 120 toe/million US$ in 2040. The improvement 
in energy intensity is also reflected in the improvement in CO2 intensity at a similar pace. 
In contrast to energy intensity, energy demand per capita is projected to increase by 28.7%, 
from 1.95 toe per person in 2015 to 2.51 toe per person in 2040. This could be attributed 
to the projected continuing economic growth in the region, which will bring about a more 
energy-intensive lifestyle as people are able to purchase vehicles, household appliances, 
and other energy-consuming devices due to increases in disposable income. As energy 
demand per capita increases, CO2 per capita is projected to increase at a similar rate.
Figure 1.18: Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040) 
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
55
50
45
30
35
30
25
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
%
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
EAS = East Asia Summit, CO2 = carbon dioxide.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita
Figure 1.19: Energy Indicators in EAS17 
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 = 100
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
4.2.  Comparison of BAU and APS 
4.2.1. 
 Total final energy consumption, BAU vs APS 
In the APS, final energy consumption is projected to rise from 5,020 Mtoe in 2015 to 
6,615 Mtoe. Comparing the BAU scenario and the APS, final energy consumption is 
projected to be 795 Mtoe or 10.8% lower than in the BAU scenario in 2040. This is due 
to the various energy efficiency plans and programmes, presented in Section 3, on both 
the supply and demand sides that are to be implemented by EAS17 countries. Figure 1.20 
shows the evolution of final energy consumption in 1990–2040 in both the BAU scenario 
and APS.


35
4.2.2. 
 Final energy consumption by sector – BAU vs APS 
Figure 1.21 shows the composition of final energy consumption by sector in both the BAU 
scenario and the APS. Final energy consumption in most sectors is significantly reduced 
in the APS compared with the BAU scenario. In percentage terms, the reduction is largest 
in the transportation sector (14.6%), followed by the industry sector (11.4%), the ‘others’ 
sector (10.2%); non-energy demand will be the same as the BAU scenario.
Figure 1.20: Total Final Energy Consumption, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil eqivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990
10.8%
2015
2040
Mtoe
BAU
APS
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.21: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU vs APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario , BAU = Business-As-Usual .
Source: Authors’ calculation.
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
–11.4%
–14.6%
–10.2%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
4.2.3. 
 Primary energy supply by sources – BAU vs APS 
Figure 1.22 shows primary energy supply by fuel source. In the APS, growth in primary 
energy supply for fossil fuels is lower compared with the BAU scenario. The growth rate 
in primary energy supply of the APS is projected to be 1% per year on average from 2015 
to 2040. This rate is lower than the BAU scenario in which the growth rate is projected to 
be 1.5%. In absolute terms, the largest reduction will be in coal demand, by 1,154 Mtoe or 
27.1% from the BAU scenario’s 4,254 Mtoe to 3,100 Mtoe in the APS. The savings potential 
for other fuels are projected to be 408 Mtoe for oil (equivalent to a 13.7% reduction from 
the BAU scenario), and 355 Mtoe for gas (equivalent to a 17.9% reduction from the BAU 
scenario). Due to increased renewable energy in the primary supply, renewable energy 
supply including biomass is projected to increase by 30.1% from the BAU scenario to the 
APS for the aggressive policy scenario of including more renewables into the supply mix.


37
4.2.4. 
 Total primary energy supply – BAU vs APS
Figure 1.23 shows the TPES in both the BAU scenario and the APS. The total savings 
potential in the TPES is expected to be 1,431 Mtoe, a consumption reduction from 10,943 
Mtoe in the BAU scenario to 9,512 Mtoe in the APS. This savings potential represents a 
13.1% reduction from the BAU scenario to the APS. 
The energy savings potential is brought about by improvements both in the transformation 
sector, particularly power generation, and the final energy consumption sector where 
efficiencies of household appliances and more efficient building designs are expected. 
The ‘others’ sector has an expected increase of renewable energy in the energy supply, 
which is projected to be a 31.1% increase from the BAU scenario to the APS.
Figure 1.22: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent..
Source: Authors’ calculation.
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-13.7%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
-27.1%
-17.9%
30.1%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.23: Total Primary Energy Supply – BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
1431.17 Mtoe, –13.1%
4.3.  CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption
4.3.1. 
 CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions from energy consumption in the BAU scenario are projected to increase 
from 5,660 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 8,189 Mt-C in 2040, implying an 
average annual growth rate of 1.5% (Figure 1.24). This is the same growth rate of TPES of 
1.5% per year. In the APS, CO2 emissions are projected to be 6,207 Mt-C in 2040, 24.2% 
lower than the BAU scenario.
At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the 
first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. The agreement sets out a global 
action plan to put the world on track to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global 
warming to well below 2°C. The Paris Agreement could be a bridge between today’s 
policies and climate-neutrality before the end of the century. 
Although the emission reductions under the APS are significant, CO2 emissions from 
energy demand in the APS in 2040 will still be above 2015 levels and more than two times 
higher than 1990 levels. Scientific evidence suggests that these reductions will not be 
adequate to prevent severe climate change impacts. Analysis by the Intergovernmental 
Panel on Climate Change suggests that to keep the increase in global mean temperature 


39
to not more than 2°C compared with pre-industrial levels, global CO2 emissions need to 
peak between 2000 and 2015.
In the adopted version of the Paris Agreement, the parties will also ‘pursue efforts’ to 
limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C, which will require zero emissions between 2030 
and 2050, according to scientists. However, this study shows that even in the APS, the 
emissions will be about 6,207 Mt-C. It is supposed to be at zero emissions for the efforts 
to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C to be successful.
4.4.  NDC/INDC Scenario
This working group also assessed reducing the effect of CO2 emissions brought by NDC/
INDC targets that countries submit to the United Nations Framework Convention on 
Climate Change following the Paris Agreement (Table 1.10). The results clearly show that 
INDC/NDC targets of the following ASEAN countries and Australia are more ambitious 
than the EAS targets.
Figure 1.24 Total CO2 Emissions – BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, CO2 = carbon dioxide,  Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
9,000 
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
1981.93 Mt-C, -24.2%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 1.10: Comparison of CO2 Emissions amongst the Scenarios in 2040, Mt-C  
Country
BAU
APS
INDC/NDC
Malaysia
116
90
78
Philippines
271
191
87
Thailand
410
252
220
Australia
100
80
50
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,  
 
 
NDC = Nationally Determined Contributions.
Source: Authors.
Cambodia, the Lao PDR, Myanmar, Singapore, and Viet Nam were not assessed due to 
their technical problems. Other countries such as Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, and 
China could already achieve their INDC/NDC targets with their APS targets.
To achieve the INDC/NDC targets, additional efforts need to be made to reduce emissions 
in the APS to reach INDC/NDC in some countries. For example, CO2 emissions reduction 
target rate from APS to INDC/NDC are 13% for Malaysia, 54% for the Philippines, 13% for 
Thailand, and 38% for Australia. The INDC/NDC targets of the Philippines and Australia 
seem to be too ambitious; these countries should review their INDC/NDC targets from 
the scientific viewpoint.
4.5.  Necessary Investment Cost
4.5.1  Power infrastructure
Based on the energy outlook results for the BAU scenario and the APS, the Working Group 
estimated the necessary investment in the power sector, especially for power generation 
facilities, comprising coal, gas, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar PV, wind, and biomass 
power generation plants. The Working Group drew from several sources of information to 
obtain the current capital cost of each power plant, but it did not forecast future capital cost 
due to its uncertainty. For all EAS17 countries taken together, the amount of investment 
needs to meet electricity demand would be US$3.5 trillion for the BAU scenario and 
US$4 trillion for the APS. This investment cost considers the reduction of upfront cost of 
each technology due to a fast drop of unit cost of each technology, especially renewables. 
Figures 1.25 and 1.26 show the investment shares by power generation type for the BAU 
scenario and the APS in the region. The Increment of electricity demand from 2015 
to 2040 of the BAU scenario will be 13,361 TWh. On the other hand, its APS will be 


41
12,641 TWh. But the APS will shift to renewables and nuclear energy. In the case of the 
high share of renewables in the power generation mix, the total expected power capacity 
will be 3,119 GW in the APS, which is 2,875 GW higher than the BAU scenario due to 
the lower operation (or lower efficiency) rate of renewable energy. Consequently, the 
APS will be higher than the BAU scenario in terms of necessary investment for power 
generation, and the share of power generation sources will be different between the BAU 
scenario and the APS.
Figure 1.25: Investment Share by Power Source (EAS17-BAU)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, EAS = East Asia Summit, PV = photovoltaic. 
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Wind
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar PV
31%
31%
8%
14%
5%
2%
9%
Figure 1.26: Investment Share by Power Sources (EAS17-APS)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, EAS = East Asia Summit, PV = photovoltaic.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
3%
4%
Wind
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar PV
15%
23%
9%
3%
43%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 1.27 shows the investment needs of the 10 ASEAN Member States. ASEAN would 
account for about US$432 billion for the BAU scenario, and about US$440 billion in the 
APS. The investment shares by power generation source are different between the BAU 
scenario and the APS. Investment in coal and gas power are the dominant shares in the 
ASEAN–BAU case, while investment in the APS is more towards clean energy such as 
hydro, geothermal, wind, solar PV, and possibly nuclear as well (Figure 1.28). In other 
words, ASEAN will seek for a more balanced energy mix for power generation to increase 
energy security and mitigate CO2 emissions.
Figure 1.27: Investment Share by Power Source (ASEAN–BAU)
ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, BAU = Business-As-Usual, PV = photovoltaic. 
Source: Authors’ calculation.
1%
Wind
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar PV
4%
7%
66%
14%
8%
Figure 1.28: Investment Share by Power Source (ASEAN–APS)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, PV = photovoltaic.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
8%
Wind
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar PV
22%
33%
9%
7%
12%
9%


43
4.5.2  Other energy infrastructure
There are many necessary investments in energy infrastructure in the future, but here 
we focus on necessary investment cost for refineries and liquefied natural gas (LNG)–
receiving terminals. Natural gas will have a higher growth rate until 2040 but its supply 
to EAS17 will shift from domestic production to countries outside EAS17. In this regard, 
LNG-receiving terminals will also be essential. The investment for refineries and LNG-
receiving terminals in EAS17 will be estimated at US$367 billion and US$132 billion, 
respectively, in the BAU scenario. The investments in the APS are reduced to US$60 
billion for refineries, and US$75 billion for LNG-receiving terminals due to promotion 
of energy efficiency. However, these investment costs will be much lower than power 
generation. The share of investment cost of refineries and LNG-receiving terminals to 
power generation facilities will be 13% of the BAU scenario and 3% of the APS, respectively. 
These results seem to indicate energy transition from fossil fuel to more advanced energy 
technologies such as renewable energy (Figure 1.29). 
Figure 1.29: Energy Infrastructure Investment (EAS17, BAU–APS)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, EAS = East Asia Summit, LNG = liquefied natural gas.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Power Generation
LNG (receiving terminal)
Refinery
4,500 
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Investment Cost ($US Billion)
2040 BAU
2040 APS
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The investments for refineries and LNG-receiving terminals in ASEAN are estimated at 
US$226 billion and US$28 billion, respectively, in the BAU scenario. The investments 
in ASEAN in the APS are reduced to US$149 billion for refineries and US$16 billion for 
LNG-receiving terminals. The share of investment cost of refineries and LNG-receiving 
terminals to power generation facilities will be 59% of the BAU scenario and 17% of the 
APS. ASEAN will still need fossil fuel for its economic and social activities. The total 
investment cost for power generation, refineries, and LNG-receiving terminals of the 
APS will be lower than the BAU scenario. This indicates that the EEC in the final energy 
consumption sector and natural gas power plants will be crucial (Figure 1.30).
Figure 1.30: Energy Infrastructure Investment (ASEAN, BAU-APS)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, BAU = Business-As-Usual, LNG = liquefied natural gas.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Power Generation
LNG (receiving terminal)
Refinery
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Investment Cost ($US Billion)
2040 BAU
2040 APS


45
5.  Conclusions and Recommendations 
At the third Working Group meeting, the members discussed the key findings and 
implications of the analysis based on the two energy outlook scenarios – the BAU scenario 
and the APS.
5.1.  Key Findings
Based on projected changes in socio-economic factors, energy consumption, and CO2 
emissions in the BAU scenario and the APS, the Working Group members identified 
several key findings:
1) Sustained population and economic growth in the EAS region will lead to significant 
increases in energy demand. Total final energy consumption in 2040 will increase by 
almost 50%, reflecting actual annual growth rate of 1.6% per year between 2015 and 
2040. By sector, transport energy demand is projected to grow moderately at about 
1.7% per year, and its energy consumption share is projected to be 26.1% by 2040. 
The annual growth rate of the industry sector in 2015–2040 is just about 1.6% per 
year, but its energy consumption share is projected to be the largest, about 34.1% 
by 2040. Demand of the commercial and residential (‘others’) sectors will grow at a 
lower rate of 1.3% per year, slower than that of the industry and the transport sectors. 
However, its energy consumption share is projected to be 29.4%, the second-largest 
share after the industry sector. 
2) The total EAS17 power generation is projected to grow at 2.3% per year on average, 
from 2015 (equivalent to 14,290 TWh) to 2040 (equivalent to 25,030 TWh), 
reflecting an increase of 1.8 times during the period. The share of coal-fired generation 
is projected to continue to be the largest and will be about 48% in 2040, a drop from 
the 53.8% share in 2015. The share of natural gas is projected to increase from 17.8% 
in 2015 to 19.4% in 2040. The nuclear share (8.5% in 2015) is forecast to decrease 
to 8.3% in 2040. Geothermal (0.4% in 2015) and other (wind, solar, biomass, etc.) 
sources at 5.7% share will also increase to 0.5% and 13.7% in 2040, respectively. The 
shares of oil and hydro are projected to decrease, from 1.6% to 0.4%, and from 12.3% 
to 9.7%, respectively, over the same period.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3) The total EAS17 primary energy supply is projected to increase from 7,488 Mtoe in 
2015 to 10,943 Mtoe in 2040. Coal will still comprise the largest share of primary 
energy supply, but its growth is expected to be slower, increasing at 1.3% per year. 
Consequently, the share of coal in the TPES is forecast to decline from 41.4% in 2015 
to 38.9% in 2040. Amongst fossil sources of energy, natural gas is projected to see a 
moderate annual average growth rate of 2.2%. Its share in the total will consequently 
increase from 15.4% (equivalent to 1,155 Mtoe) in 2015 to 18% (equivalent to 1,972 
Mtoe) in 2040. Nuclear energy is projected to increase at a similar rate as natural 
gas at 2.2% per year on average; its share will grow from 4.2% in 2015 to 5% in 2040. 
This is due to the assumed resumption of nuclear power generation in Japan, and 
the expansion of nuclear power generation capacity in China and India. Geothermal 
is projected to grow fastest at 3.1% per year in 2015–2040. However, its share is 
projected to be relatively small, about 0.9% by 2040, increasing from 0.6% in 2015.
4) The continuing reliance on fossil fuels to meet increasing energy demand will also 
be associated with significant increases in CO2 emissions. The CO2 emissions from 
energy consumption in the BAU scenario are projected to increase from 5,660 Mt-C 
in 2015 to 8,189 Mt-C in 2040, implying an average annual growth rate of 1.5%. In 
the APS, CO2 emissions are projected to be 6,207 Mt-C in 2040, 24.2% lower than in 
the BAU scenario. Although the emissions reductions under the APS are significant, 
CO2 emissions from energy demand in the APS in 2040 will still be above 2015 levels 
and more than two times higher than 1990 levels. 
5) However, the EEC in EAS17 provides strong hope for the region to reduce energy 
demand and CO2 emissions. The results of this analysis indicate that, by 2040, the 
implementation of currently proposed energy efficiency goals, action plans, and 
policies across the region could lead to the following reductions:
o 
13.1% in primary energy supply,
o 
38% in energy intensity, and
o 
24.2% in energy-derived CO2 emissions.
6) According to assessment results of INDC/NDC targets based on comparison of CO2 
emissions in the BAU scenario, APS, and INDC/NDC scenarios, the APS of many 
EAS17 countries clearly shows lower CO2 emissions than their INDC/NDC targets. 
But several countries show much lower CO2 emissions compared to the APS. It is 
suggested that those countries review them from a scientific viewpoint. 


47
7) Based on the key findings, the necessary investment cost of combined power 
generation, refineries, and LNG-receiving terminals in EAS17 is estimated to 
be US$4.0 trillion in the BAU scenario by 2040, and US$4.2 trillion in the APS. 
Investments in refineries and LNG-receiving terminals in EAS17 are estimated to cost 
US$67 billion and US$131 billion, respectively, in the BAU scenario. Investments 
in the APS are reduced to US$60 billion for refineries and US$75 billion for LNG-
receiving terminals. In the APS, although electricity demand is lower due to the 
implementation of efficiency measures, the estimated investment cost of power 
generation will be larger (US$4.0 trillion in the APS from US$3.5 trillion in the BAU 
scenario) mainly because of the increased share of renewables imposed under the 
APS in addition to the EEC measures. The largest share of total investment will be 
for additional capacity of NRE plants, such as hydro, geothermal, solar PV, wind, and 
biomass.
5.2.  Policy Implications
Based on the above key findings, the Working Group members identified several policy 
implications, aggregated into five major categories. The identified policy implications are 
based on a shared desire to enhance action plans in specific sectors, prepare appropriate 
energy efficiency policies, shift from fossil energy to non-fossil energy, rationalise 
energy pricing mechanisms, and a need for accurate energy consumption statistics. 
The implications identified by the Working Group are listed below. It should be noted 
that appropriate policies will differ between countries based on differences in country 
circumstances, policy objectives, and market structures, and that not all members 
necessarily agreed to all recommendations.
 
1) Energy efficiency action plans in final consumption sectors. The industry sector 
will be a major source of energy savings because it will still be the largest energy-
consuming sector by 2040, followed by transport especially road and residential/
commercial sectors. Several EEC action plans will be implemented, which include 
building design and replacement of existing facilities and equipment with more 
efficient ones. Those policies are listed by area/sector: 
• 
The building sector would need both passive and active design policies such as
o 
setting up and enforcing building codes and rewards for green building,
o 
supporting energy service companies regulated by governments, and
o 
exploring and establishing a good and practical green building business model 
to meet the context and situation.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
• 
The road transport sector will need to consider measures to reduce energy 
consumption per unit of transport activities such as
o 
improving fuel economy of internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles;
o 
shifting from personal to mass transportation mode;
o 
shifting to more low-emission fuels, such as biofuels and compressed natural 
gas vehicles;
o 
shifting to next-generation vehicle technologies, such as electric vehicles, 
plug-in hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles;
• 
Other sectors will need to consider measures to improve energy efficiency such 
as
o 
applying standards and labelling systems;
o 
using demand management systems such as household energy management 
systems and factory energy management systems;
o 
growing energy managers and energy service companies;
o 
improving thermal efficiency in the power generation sector by constructing 
or replacing existing facilities with new and more efficient generation 
technologies.
 
2) Renewable energy policies. Low-carbon fuels need to be increased. This could be 
attained by increasing the share of NRE and nuclear energy in the energy mix of each 
country. Several policies and actions should be considered:
• 
Renewable technologies are not as competitive as thermal power generation 
technologies using fossil fuel in terms of their costs. Supportive renewable 
energy policies such as feed-in tariffs (FiT), renewable portfolio standards, and 
net metering are suggested. In addition, international financing schemes, which 
include clean development mechanisms and joint credit mechanisms, are also 
penetrating renewable energy. The key to incentivise private investment in 
renewable energy is to lower the risks related to renewable energy projects and 
improve profitability prospects.
• 
The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources poses significant challenges 
in integrating renewable-energy generation with existing electricity grids. Thus, 
electricity storage technologies, combined with solar and wind power, will be very 
important, but the combination cost is still high.
3) Technology development policies. Environmental technologies will need to be 
considered to curb the increasing CO2 emissions:
• 
The development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology will be very 
important in controlling the release of GHGs into the atmosphere. Continued 
research and development will be important to ensure the future economic 
viability of deploying CCS technology. 


49
• 
Hydrogen could be extracted from fossil fuels, such as oil and natural gas, and 
through electrolysis using renewable energy. But its cost is still higher than existing 
fuels. Hydrogen fuel development is very promising and could be commercialised 
in the future. Continued research and development in fuel cells and hydrogen 
power generation will be important for future clean fuel use. 
• 
Technological cooperation and technology diffusion need to be accelerated in 
the ASEAN region.
4) Energy supply security policies. The region will largely depend on imported oil and 
gas. Thus, measures to secure the supply of energy will be very important for the 
region. Several measures are identified:
• 
Promote regional energy connectivity such as the trans-ASEAN gas pipeline and 
the ASEAN Power Grid.
• 
Diversify sources of import.
• 
Strengthen energy infrastructure, including the construction of LNG-receiving 
terminals and re-gasification plants.
• 
Increase domestic energy such as renewable energy share.
• 
ASEAN may need to look into the strategic reserve or stockpiling requirement on 
both public and private bases in the near future.
 
5.3.  Recommendations
 
Based on this study, energy consumption in the EAS region will increase remarkably due 
to stable economic and population growth. It will continue to depend largely on fossil fuel 
energy, such as coal, oil, and gas, until 2040 (the BAU scenario) even though a higher 
crude oil assumption (about US$120 per barrel in 2040 at 2016 constant price) reflects 
the current market situation. But if EAS17 countries dedicate themselves to implementing 
their EEC policies and increase low-carbon energy technologies, such as nuclear power 
generation and solar PV/wind (APS), the region could achieve remarkable energy savings 
in the APS, especially through fossil fuel savings, and significantly reduce CO2 emissions. 
The APS of many EAS17 countries is appropriate because their expected CO2  emissions 
reduction is the same or larger than the countries’ INDC/NDC targets. Therefore, EAS17 
countries need to apply the plan-do-check-act cycle approach in promoting their EEC 
and renewable energy policies (energy-saving targets and action plans) according to their 
respective timetables.
Natural gas will grow the highest up to 2040 amongst fossil fuels and will be an important 
fuel as transition to a new energy system in the future occurs because of lower price than 
crude oil, various import sources, and lower carbon emissions compared to oil and coal. To 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
realise this increase, the establishment of a transparent LNG market in Asia, the removal 
of destination clause, and consumers’ participation in LNG development, and others are 
recommended.
 
This energy outlook study also shows that a lot of energy savings, especially on oil and 
electricity consumption by final users, will come from energy efficiency activities. 
So, the following EEC policies (specified by energy-saving targets and action plans) of 
EAS17 countries are recommended: (i) standards and labelling systems for appliances 
and energy facilities such as boilers and compressors; (ii) energy service companies; (iii) 
increase of next-generation vehicles including hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, plug-in 
hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles; (iv) green building index; (v) and advanced energy 
management system.
Increasing the share of renewable energy – such as hydro, geothermal, solar PV, wind, and 
biomass – will contribute to reduced fossil fuel consumption and mitigate CO2 emissions, 
and thus contribute to INDC/NDC and SDGs. It will require appropriate government 
policies such as renewable targets, legal approaches such as FiT/Renewable Portfolio 
Standards (RPS), and revised FiT to include bidding and tendering processes. 
Energy supply security in the EAS17 region is a top priority energy issue. EEC and 
renewable energy contribute to maintaining regional energy security by reducing fossil 
fuel consumption and increasing the use of domestic energy. Moreover, energy supply 
sources can be diversified through regional energy networks such as the Trans-ASEAN 
Gas Pipeline, including LNG transportation as virtual pipeline, and the ASEAN Power Grid 
(APG) with region-wide electricity trade market. The Lao PDR, Thailand, and Myanmar 
are a starting point of the APG. Oil stockpiling and nuclear power generation are other 
options to secure energy supply in the region.
According to the energy outlook’s results, as coal power generation will still be dominant 
in the EAS region in 2040, the greater use of clean coal technology and development of 
CCS technology are critical because they will make coal-fired power plants in the region 
carbon free. Hydrogen technology also has a key role as an alternative to fossil fuels, as it 
can be applied across sectors, such as the power generation, industry, and road transport 
sectors.


51
This energy outlook also estimates the necessary investment cost for combined energy 
infrastructure such as power generation, LNG-receiving terminals, and refineries. 
The EAS17 region will need around US$4 trillion for the construction of power plants, 
refineries, and LNG-receiving terminals in the BAU scenario, but power generation plants 
will be the largest share estimated at US$3.5 trillion. ASEAN needs about US$686 billion 
in the BAU scenario for the total energy infrastructure of combined power generation, 
refineries, and LNG-receiving terminals, and US$605 billion in the APS. The difference 
comes from refineries and LNG-receiving terminals due to savings in oil and gas 
consumption. In the BAU scenario, a lot of money will be allocated to coal-fired power 
plants (clean coal technology), whereas under the APS, more money will be allocated 
to low-carbon energy electricity, such as nuclear, geothermal hydropower, solar PV/
wind, and biomass. Consequently, financing schemes to develop energy infrastructure 
such as public–private partnership, public financing of international/regional banks, clean 
development mechanism, and/or joint credit mechanism, etc. will be essential.
References
ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) (2013), ASEAN Guideline on Off-grid Rural 
Electrification Approaches, Jakarta: ACE.
ASEAN Secretariat (2007), Cebu Declaration on East Asian Energy Security 2007. 
Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat. http://www.aseansec.org/19319.htm (accessed 27 
February 2008).
Energy Department, Prime Minister’s Office (2015), Brunei Darussalam Energy White 
Paper, Bandar Seri Begawan.
ERIA (2015), Scenario Analysis of Energy Security in the East Asia Summit Region. 
Jakarta: ERIA. http://www.eria.org/publications/research_project_reports/FY2014/
No.35.html
IEA (2017a), Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2014. Paris: OECD Publishing.
IEA (2017b), Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries 2015. Paris: OECD Publishing.
IEA (2017c), World Energy Outlook 2017. Paris: International Energy Agency. https://
webstore.iea.org/world-energy-outlook-2017
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) (2014), Asia/World Energy Outlook 
2014. Tokyo, Japan. https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/5875.pdf (accessed 20 February 
2018).
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) (2016), Asia/World Energy Outlook 
2016. Tokyo, Japan. https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/7199.pdf (accessed 20 February 
2018).
IPCC (2007), ‘Summary for Policymakers in Climate Change 2007: Mitigation,’ In B. 
Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds.), Contribution of Working 
Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press. 
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) (2007), ‘EAS Cooperation on Energy 
Efficiency and Conservation’. Paper Submitted to the 3rd ECTF Meeting in Tokyo in June 
2007.
World Bank (2018), World Databank – World Development Indicators (WDI) and Global 
Development Finance (GDF). Washington, DC: The World Bank. http://databank.
worldbank.org/ddp/home.do (accessed June 2016).


53
AUSTRALIA COUNTRY REPORT
Shamim Ahmad, Department of the Environment and Energy, 
Australia  
Lu Zheng, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
1.   Introduction
Australia is the largest country in Oceania, and the sixth-largest country in the world 
by total area.  It has a land area of around 7.7 million square kilometres, and is diverse 
in geography and climate. It has six states and two territories. Over the past 25 years, 
Australia’s population grew at an average annual rate of 1.3%, from 17.1 million in 1990 
to 23.8 million in 2015.  
Australia’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an average annual rate of 3.1%, from 
US$636 billion in 1990 to US$1.36 trillion in 2015 (constant 2010 US$ values), which 
translates the increase of Australia’s per capita income from around US$37,300 in 1990 
to US$56,950 in 2015. Economic activities are focused on the eastern and southeastern 
seaboard, where most of the population lives. For example, in 2016, only three states – 
New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland – generated 73% of Australia’s GDP, while 
these states represent 32%, 25%, and 20% of the national population, respectively (Carr 
et al., 2017).
1.1.  Energy Situation
Australia has abundant, high-quality, and diverse non-renewable and renewable energy 
resources. Its non-renewable energy resources include fossil fuels (coal, gas, and oil) and 
nuclear energy fuels (uranium and potentially thorium). Australia has 1.27 million tons 
of economic demonstrated resources of uranium, which is equivalent to 16,984 million 
tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) or 711,076 petajoules (Geoscience Australia, 2018). This 
amount is more than one-third of the world’s uranium resources. Australia also has a major 
share of the world’s thorium resources, and thorium could be an alternative to uranium as 
a nuclear fuel in the future.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The country has 70,927 million tons of recoverable black coal resources, which is 10% 
of the world’s black coal resources. It has a further 76,508 million tons of brown coal 
resources, about 24% of the world’s brown coal reserves (Geoscience Australia, 2017). 
Australia’s substantial conventional and unconventional gas resources account for almost 
2% of the world’s gas resources, and it has a relatively small share (0.2%) of crude oil 
resources (BP, 2017). The amount of recoverable resources is expected to grow with 
further exploration, and these resources are expected to last for many more decades, 
even if production increases. 
Australia also has large, widely distributed wind, solar, geothermal, hydroelectricity, 
ocean energy, and bioenergy resources. Wind energy technology is relatively mature, 
and its uptake is growing faster in the country. Generation capacity of solar electricity 
is also increasing rapidly due to the rapid reductions of solar technology costs. Australia 
has the highest solar radiation per square metre in the world. No substantial expansion of 
traditional hydropower will likely occur due to the dry climate and low water runoff over 
most of Australia. Pumped hydro for electricity storage is being examined at existing hydro 
installations and new sites.
Australia’s energy resources play a significant role in the country’s economic prosperity. 
Coal and gas resources support not only domestic consumption but also significant export 
earnings. In 2015, Australia was the world’s eighth-largest energy producer (381.3 Mtoe), 
accounting for 2.8% of global primary energy supply. It was the world’s 21st-largest energy 
consumer, accounting for 0.9% (125.3 Mtoe) of world primary energy supply (IEA, 2017). 
Primary energy supply is largely based on fossil fuels. In 2015, coal contributed about 
34% of primary energy supply; oil, 33%; and natural gas, 26%. Renewables contributed the 
remaining 7%, consisting of hydro (1%), solar and wind (2%), and biofuel and waste (4%) 
(IEA, 2017).
Australia plays a prominent role in meeting the increasing energy demand of the Asia-
Pacific region and the world. In 2015, Australia was the world’s fourth-largest energy 
exporter; it exported 78% of its energy production, consisting largely of coal and liquefied 
natural gas. It is the world’s largest exporter of metallurgical coal and the second-largest 
exporter of thermal coal (IEA, 2017). It is also a large exporter of uranium. With limited 
crude oil resources, Australia is a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products; it is 
increasingly reliant on imports for its transport fuels.


55
Over the past 25 years, Australia’s gross electricity generation has increased at an average 
annual rate of 2% from 154 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 1990 to 252 TWh in 2015. In 2015, 
coal accounted for almost two-thirds (63%) of total electricity generation; followed by 
natural gas, 21%; hydro, 5%; oil, 3%; and others (non-hydro renewables), 8%. Coal still 
dominates Australia’s electricity generation mix, though its share has fallen from 79% in 
1990 to 63% in 2015. The share of natural gas and non-hydro renewables in the generation 
mix has increased significantly over this period. 
2.  Modelling Assumptions 
Australia’s GDP is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 2.5% between 2015 to 
2040, compared with the average annual growth rate of 3.1% between 1990 and 2015. 
The Australian economy will gradually shift from energy-intensive industries towards less 
energy-intensive ones. Its GDP growth will gradually decrease towards the end of the 
projection period. Australia’s population is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 
1% between 2015 to 2040, which is marginally slower than the average annual growth rate 
of about 1.3% from 1990 to 2015.
Fossil fuels will remain the dominant energy source in Australia’s primary energy mix due 
to their relative abundance and costs. In electricity generation, no new coal plants will 
be installed, and the share of coal-fired electricity generation will decrease due to the 
scheduled closure and/or retirement of a few coal-fired electricity plants. Gas-fired 
electricity and non-hydro renewable electricity generation is assumed to rise to meet the 
increasing demand over the projection period.
The Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) assumes the implementation of improved efficiency 
of final energy consumption in the end-use sectors. The APS will see more efficient 
thermal power generation, and a higher contribution of renewable energy to the total 
supply. Combined effects of these measures are assumed to provide maximum energy 
savings over the projection period. Energy savings in the industry sector are assumed 
to be achieved from improvements in large energy-intensive industries, and closure of 
inefficient small plants. Structural changes are assumed to gradually shift the economy 
away from energy-intensive industries. In the residential and commercial sectors, efficient 
end-use technologies and energy management systems are assumed to further achieve 
energy savings. The transport sector is assumed to be more energy efficient through 
improved vehicle standards and fuel economy. Rapid uptake of energy-efficient electric 
vehicles for private and public transport is assumed to occur during the second half of the 
projection period. 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
This study further attempts to develop a Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 
scenario to analyse Australia’s emissions reduction target for 2030. This scenario in this 
study is designed to meet Australia’s emissions reduction target of 26%–28% below the 
2005 level by 2030.
3.   Outlook Results 
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Under the BAU scenario, total final energy consumption in Australia is projected to 
increase from 81.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 94.1 Mtoe in 2040, a rise of about 15.7% over the 
projection period and an average annual rate of increase at 0.6% (Figure 2.1). The strongest 
growth is projected to occur in the ‘others’ sector (e.g. residential and services sectors), 
increasing at 1.3% per year between 2015 and 2040. The growth of energy consumption 
in the transport sector is projected to remain slow (0.1% per year) over the projection 
period, though it saw relatively strong growth (1.7% per year) in the past 25 years.
Figure 2.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU Scenario
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Others
Transportation
Industry
Non-energy
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
57
70
81
84
90
94


57
Electricity consumption is projected to have the fastest growth at an average annual rate 
of 1.7% per year between 2015 and 2040 (Figure 2.2). Natural gas is projected to increase 
at the second highest rate of 0.7% per year. Petroleum products are projected to see a 
slower growth rate, with an average rate of 0.1% per year. Coal consumption is expected 
to decline at an average rate of 0.9% per year.
3.1.2. 
 Primary energy supply
Under the BAU scenario, Australia’s primary energy supply is projected to increase from 
125.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 140.1 Mtoe in 2040 at an average annual rate of 0.4% (Figure 2.3). 
Coal consumption is expected to decline at an annual average rate of 0.8% during this 
period, and growth in oil consumption is projected to remain flat. Natural gas will increase 
at 1.5% per year between 2015 and 2040, where its share in the primary energy mix is 
expected to increase from about 26% in 2015 to 34% in 2040. The overall share of fossil 
fuel in Australia’s primary energy supply will decline from 94% in 2015 to 89% in 2040.
Figure 2.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Heat
Others
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
57
70
81
84
90
94
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 2.3: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
86
103
125
129
137
140
 ‘Others’ (including non-hydro renewables) is projected to increase by 2.7% a year over 
the projection period. The share of ‘others’ is expected to increase from 5.7% in 2015 to 
about 10% in 2040, where the major contribution to this increase would come from solar 
and wind followed by biofuels and biomass. Solar, wind, and ocean energy together are 
expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.9% between 2015 and 2040.
3.1.3. 
 Power generation 
Electricity generation in Australia, under the BAU scenario, is projected to increase from 
252.3 TWh in 2015 to 373.7 TWh in 2040 at an average rate of 1.6% per year (Figure 
2-4). The share of coal in Australia’s power generation mix is projected to fall from 63% in 
2015 to 38% in 2040, which will still maintain its largest share in the generation mix under 
the BAU scenario. Coal share will decline due to the scheduled closure and retirement of 
some old coal-fired generation plants. Generation from oil is also projected to decline at 
an average rate of 0.1% per year, and the share of oil in the generation mix will decline from 
2.7% in 2015 to 1.8% in 2040. In contrast, the share of natural gas–fired generation will 
increase from 21% in 2015 to 32% in 2040, and natural gas use in electricity generation is 
projected to grow at an average rate of 3.3% per year over the period.


59
3.2.  Energy Saving and CO2 Reduction Potential 
3.2.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Under the APS, final energy consumption is projected to increase at a slower rate of 
0.2% per year from 81.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 84.5 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 2.5). This shows 
energy savings of 9.6 Mtoe, or 10.2%, under the APS in 2040, compared to that of the 
BAU scenario in 2040. The slower growth in demand is expected to occur across all end-
use sectors, excluding the non-energy sector. The transport sector is projected to see the 
highest energy savings followed by the ‘others’ (residential and commercial) sector. These 
reflect the improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency and end-use technologies. 
In 2040, under the APS, estimated savings are 2.0 Mtoe (7.3%) in the industry sector, 4.5 
Mtoe (13.4%) in the transport sector, and 3.0 Mtoe (10.6%) in the ‘others’ sector (Figure 
2.5).
Hydro’s share in Australia’s power generation mix is expected to decline slightly from 5.3% 
in 2015 to 4.7% by 2040. Electricity generation from ‘others’ (non-hydro renewables) 
is expected to grow faster at an average rate of 6% per year between 2015 and 2040. 
Declining costs of wind and solar technology would partly contribute to the faster growth 
of electricity generation from ‘others’ (including wind and solar) in Australia.
Figure 2.4: Power Generation under BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
154
210
252
275
325
374
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 2.5: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS
BAU = Business-As-Usual, APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Source: Authors’ calculation.
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0
–13.4%
–10.6%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–7.3%
Under the NDC scenario, final energy consumption is forecast to decrease at a rate 
of 0.6% per year from 81.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 70.5 Mtoe in 2040. Therefore, the NDC 
scenario shows further savings of 14 Mtoe final energy compared to the savings under 
the APS. The highest contribution to final energy savings would come from the transport 
sector, followed by ‘others’ (i.e. residential and services) in this scenario. 
3.2.2. 
 Primary energy supply 
Under the APS, Australia’s primary energy supply is projected to decrease at a rate of 0.2% 
per year from 125.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 119.9 Mtoe in 2040. This implies that in 2040, under 
the APS, savings of primary energy supply will be around 20.1 Mtoe or 14.4% compared 
to BAU (Figure 2.6).


61
Figure 2.6: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
145.0
140.0
135.0
130.0
125.0
120.0
115.0
110.0
105.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
20.13 Mtoe, –14.4%
Figure 2.7: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–23.3%
–18.0%
24.0%
–16.8%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Primary energy supply in the APS is expected to decline for coal at 1.8% per year 
(compared to a decline of 0.8% per year in the BAU scenario) over the projection period. 
This will result in a saving of coal consumption by about 8.3 Mtoe in 2040 compared 
to the BAU scenario. Similarly, the negative growth of oil demand (0.7% per year) will 
save oil consumption of about 7.1 Mtoe in 2040. With an average annual growth of 
0.7%, savings on natural gas consumption will be about 8.4 Mtoe compared to the BAU 
scenario. However, the demand for ‘others’ (renewables) is expected to increase by about 
3.7 Mtoe, or 24%, compared to the BAU scenario in 2040 (Figure 2.7).
Primary energy supply under the NDC scenario is projected to decline at a rate of 1.3% per 
year, from 125.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 89.3 Mtoe in 2040. Therefore, this scenario provides 
additional savings of 31 Mtoe of primary energy compared to the APS in 2040. The share 
of renewables in the primary energy mix needs to increase from 11% in 2015 to about 27% 
in 2040 under the NDC scenario.
3.3.  CO2 Emissions 
CO2 emissions from energy consumption under the BAU scenario are projected to increase 
by 0.1% per year from 98.8 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 100.3 Mt-C in 2040 
(Figure 2.8). The growth in emissions appears to be less than the projected growth in 
primary energy supply, reflecting increased use of fewer carbon-intensive energy sources 
over the period. 
In the APS, CO2 emissions are projected to decrease at an average annual rate of 0.8% 
from 98.8 Mt-C in 2015 to 80.0 Mt-C in 2040. Emissions savings in the APS will be about 
20% compared to the BAU scenario in 2040. The lower growth rate for the APS indicates 
that the energy-saving options are effective in reducing CO2 emissions in Australia. 
Reduced demand for coal in power generation and in final demand, including reduced oil 
consumption in the transport sector, will contribute the most to the expected reduction 
of CO2 emissions in the APS.


63
CO2 emissions under the NDC scenario will decline at an average annual rate of 2.6% 
from 100.3 Mt-C to 50.5 Mt-C in 2040. This is about 50% reduction of CO2 emissions 
compared to the BAU scenario in 2040. 
In 2005, energy-related CO2 emissions in Australia were 94.1 Mt-C. In 2030, such 
emissions are projected to be 101.9 Mt-C in the BAU scenario, 88.8 Mt-C in the APS, and 
69.5 Mt-C in the NDC scenario. It appears that the energy-related emissions reduction 
target of 26%–28% below the 2005 level by 2030 will not be achieved under the APS. 
The NDC scenario in this study is designed to meet Australia’s emissions reduction target 
of 26% below the 2005 level by 2030, by further enhancing the assumptions of energy 
efficiency and renewable energy.
Figure 2.8: CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4. 
  Implications 
• 
Fossil fuels – namely, coal, oil, and gas – will continue to dominate the energy mix in 
both the BAU scenario and the APS.
• 
Coal will continue to dominate Australia’s electricity generation mix over the period up 
to 2040; however, the share of coal in the power mix is projected to decline. Advance 
technologies for power generation would be necessary to enhance efficiency, energy 
savings, and emissions reduction. 
• 
Australia has substantial reserves and a secure supply of coal. Coal prices are 
expected to remain much lower over the long term. Coal-fired generation is likely 
to remain cheaper than other energy sources. However, global attempts to curb 
emissions would put pressure on Australia to adopt low-emission technologies for 
power generation. The use of efficient and clean coal technologies will be necessary. 
Research, development, and deployment of clean energy technologies will play a key 
role.
• 
Substantial expansion of traditional hydropower will likely not occur due to the dry 
climate and low water runoff in much of Australia. While wind and solar technology 
costs are going to fall more quickly over the next 25 years, the growth of renewable 
energy will likely come from large-scale adoption of wind and solar energy supported 
by energy storage. Better integration of variable renewable energy sources into 
Australia’s energy systems will be necessary.
• 
Energy efficiency and demand-side management are important. The implementation 
of improved and efficient end-use technologies will reduce final energy consumption 
in the end-use sectors. Energy savings in the industry sector will come from the 
improved efficiency  of large energy-intensive industries.
• 
Oil will continue to supply Australia’s transport fuel needs. Improved vehicle fuel 
efficiency and uptake of electric vehicles would reduce oil demand in the transport 
sector. Investment in new petroleum refinery plants may be necessary to reduce 
import dependence of transport fuel. 


65
References
BP (2017), BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017, 66th ed. London: BP, 
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp-country/de_ch/PDF/bp-statistical-review-
of-world-energy-2017-full-report.pdf (accessed 17 May 2018).
Carr, T., K. Fernandes, and T. Rosewall (2017), ‘The Recent Economic Performance of 
the States’, RBA Bulletin, March Quarter 2017, pp.1–12.
Geoscience Australia (2017), Australia’s Identified Mineral Resources 2017. Canberra: 
Geoscience Australia, http://www.ga.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/58874/
Australias-Identified-Mineral-Resources-2017.pdf (accessed 17 May 2018).
Geoscience Australia (2018), Australian Energy Resources Assessment 2018. Canberra: 
Geoscience Australia, http://aera.ga.gov.au/ (accessed 17 May  2018).
IEA (2017), World Energy Balances (2017 ed.). Paris: International Energy Agency.
Australia Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM COUNTRY 
REPORT
Ministry of Energy and Industry, Brunei Darussalam
1.   Background
Brunei Darussalam (Brunei) is a small nation on the northwest coast of the island of 
Borneo. It is located in Southeast Asia and has a coastline of 161 kilometres along the 
South China Sea in the north. The East Malaysian state of Sarawak completely surrounds 
Brunei on all other sides. The country has a total land area of only 5,765 square kilometres 
and comprises four main districts: Belait, Tutong, Temburong, and Brunei-Muara. Its 
capital city is Bandar Seri Begawan located in the Brunei-Muara district. Because of its 
proximity to the equator, the country experiences a hot and wet climate throughout the 
year.
Brunei Darussalam is an economy with great economic potential. Its gross domestic 
product (GDP) in 2015 was US$13.9 billion at constant year 2010. With a population of 
416,500, Brunei’s GDP per capita was US$33,340 at constant year 2010. About 60% of 
Brunei’s GDP is generated by the energy sector. This reflects the significant contribution 
of this sector to the country’s economy. The energy sector also dominates Brunei’s export 
value as crude oil, natural gas (in the form of liquefied natural gas), and methanol exports 
account for more than 90% of its total exports, which are primarily destined to Japan, the 
Republic of  Korea, India, China, and (ASEAN) countries.
To drive the economy into a sustainable future, the country supports the implementation 
of three strategic goals set out in the Brunei Darussalam’s Energy White Paper launched 
in March 2014. The White Paper sets out strategic goal 2, which is specifically for energy 
supply and demand, i.e. to ensure a safe, secure, reliable, and efficient supply of energy 
in Brunei Darussalam. Strategic goal 1 focuses on strengthening oil and gas upstream and 
downstream activities while goal 3 focuses on maximising economic spin-off from the 
energy sector. 
CHAPTER 3


67
2.   Energy Supply and Consumption in 2015
Oil and natural gas remain the main sources of energy for Brunei Darussalam. In 2015, 
the total primary energy supply (TPES) of the country for both energy sources was 3.26 
million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in total, with 3.07 Mtoe or 94.3% from natural gas 
(Table 3.1). 
Brunei Darussalam has 922 MW of installed capacity in power generation of public 
utilities, including a solar photovoltaic (PV) at 1.2 MW. Electricity production from the 
public utilities in 2015 was 3.78 terawatt-hours (TWh). In the same year, the installed 
capacity of auto producers was 116.99 MW, which produced 0.39 TWh of electricity.
The total final energy consumption (TFEC) of Brunei Darussalam in 2015 was 0.81 Mtoe, 
with the transport sector having the highest energy demand at 0.31 Mtoe or 38.27%  of 
the TFEC. This is followed by the ‘others’ sector (34.57%), industry sector (24.69%), and 
non-energy use (2.47%). In terms of energy source, oil accounted for 65.43% of final 
energy consumption, followed by electricity at 32.10% and gas at 2.47%.
Table 3.1: Energy Supply and Consumption 2015 (Mtoe)
Supply and Consumption
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Total
Primary energy supply
Indigenous production
8.88
11.19
-
20.07
Net import and others
-8.69
-8.12
-
-16.81
Total primary energy supply
0.19
3.07
-
3.26
Final energy consumption
Industry sector
0.18
-
0.02
0.20
Transport sector
0.31
-
-
0.31
Others sectora
0.02
0.02
0.24
0.28
Non-energy
0.02
-
-
0.02
Total final energy consumption
0.53
0.02
0.26
0.81
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
aThe ‘others’ sector includes the residential and commercial sectors.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Brunei Darussalam Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.   Energy Policies 
3.1.  Supply 
Brunei seeks to expand exploration areas to increase reserves and ensure long-term 
sustainability and conservation of oil and gas reserves. A core focus as well is to rejuvenate 
the current producing assets to enhance recovery from the field and maximise production, 
which are  aligned with the national vision, Wawasan Brunei 2035. The country is also 
maximising its potential for economic spin-off from upstream production and assets. In 
this regard, Brunei Darussalam has set strategies to strengthen and grow the upstream and 
downstream activities of oil and gas, with the targets set as follows:
1) To sustain a reserve replacement ratio of greater than 1 also means ensuring that 
Brunei continues to benefit from production in the energy sector in the long term;
2) To increase production of oil and gas to 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 
2035;
3) To grow revenue from domestic downstream industries and reach at least B$5 billion 
by 2035 through the development of infrastructure and facilities, including chemical 
and petrochemical plants and a refinery.
Despite its aspiration to increase oil and gas production to 650 kboe per day by 2035, 
the country acknowledges the importance of reducing energy intensity by 45% by 2035 
in line with its commitment to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Brunei has also 
targeted to increase the share of its power generation mix from renewable energy to at 
least 10% by 2035. It has considered and started to develop renewable energy, particularly 
solar PV and waste-to-energy, which are deemed feasible at this stage. To support the 
development of renewable energy sources, the government plans to introduce renewable 
energy policies and regulatory frameworks that will stimulate investment from both the 
public and the private sectors in developing and deploying renewable energy.
3.2.  Consumption 
Brunei has been actively improving energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) to reduce 
energy intensity by 2035. In achieving the energy intensity target, relevant government 
agencies and industries have been collaborating to set up legislation and to introduce 
financial and fiscal policy measures that promote energy efficiency and low energy-
intensive industries. Industries’ roles include identification of technical levers that may 
assist the reduction of energy use over time while individuals shift consumption behaviour 
towards energy efficiency that include making choices on highly energy-efficient 
appliances.


69
Brunei Darussalam Country Report
Efforts towards achieving EEC targets were through power generation efficiency, standard 
and labelling, fuel economy regulation, EEC building guidelines, street lighting alternate 
switching off, and LED-fitting lighting for street lights.
The Department of Electrical Services and Berakas power management company  play 
major roles in setting out plans to increase power generation efficiency. The plan will 
emphasise the implementation of combined-cycle turbine and cogeneration power plants, 
reduction of partial load operation, and improvement of transmission and distribution 
losses.
4. 
  Outlook Result
4.1.   Final Energy Consumption
Business-As-Usual  Scenario
Under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the projected TFEC in the year 2040 is 
4.78 Mtoe. The increase of projected TFEC is linked to the GDP growth rate which, in 
the model, is set at a constant rate of 5.6% per year over the projection period. The high 
GDP growth rate is supported by the country’s aspiration to strengthen its economic 
structure to develop the commercial, services, and industry sectors. For instance, as per 
projection from the BAU scenario, industry TFEC  in 2040 is expected to grow to 1.13 
Mtoe, compared with 0.20 Mtoe in 2015. 
In 2040, the share of oil in the country’s total demand will be 65%, mainly to be consumed 
as transportation fuel. In 2015, the TFEC of oil was 0.52 Mtoe and is projected to increase 
to 1.75 Mtoe in 2040. The model also predicts that the demand for electricity will increase 
at an average of 6.6% per year, from 0.26 Mtoe in 2015 to 1.26 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 3.1).


70
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Alternative Policy Scenario
An Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) was developed as a basis to estimate the energy 
saving potential for Brunei Darussalam to achieve the energy intensity reduction targets 
through the deployment of advanced technologies for energy saving and enforcement of 
relevant initiatives. Under the APS, the overall TFEC in 2040 will be 3.86 Mtoe. In 2040, 
the ‘others’ sector will require about 14.8% of energy demand, followed by the transport 
sector at 15.5% and the industry sector at 24.4%. Demand of the non-energy sector will 
be at 45.1%. 
The improvement in vehicle fuel efficiency in the future due to proposed fuel economy 
regulations would be the main factor for the declining growth rate of demand in the 
transport sector. For the period 2015–2040, the TFEC will grow at 2.7% per year on 
average. Referring to the results of the LEAP1 model for energy outlook, the TFEC under 
the APS will be reduced by 19.2% compared to the BAU scenario. The ‘others’ sector 
(residential and commercial sectors) will decrease  by 39.4%; transport, by 37.5%; and 
industry, by 16.9% from the BAU scenario. Meanwhile, non-energy use will also decline 
by 0.3% (Figure 3.2).
Figure 3.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
1 
LEAP stands for Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System.


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Brunei Darussalam Country Report
Figure 3.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
–37.5%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–16.9%
–39.4%
–0.3%
4.2  Primary Energy Supply
Business-As-Usual Scenario
Under the BAU scenario, the TPES of Brunei is projected to reach 9.39 Mtoe in 2040, 
increasing at 4.3% per year from 3.26 Mtoe in 2015. Its TPES was dominated by natural 
gas at 94.2% in 2015, while oil share was about 5.8%.  
The TPES for natural gas is expected to increase at 3.3% per year from 3.07 Mtoe in 2015 
to 6.86 Mtoe in 2040. The country will continue to be a net exporter of energy in the 
future.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Alternative Policy Scenario
A significant decrease in the TPES for oil and natural gas is projected between the BAU 
scenario and the APS in 2040. In 2040, oil supply under the APS will be 1.25 Mtoe against 
the BAU scenario at 1.84 Mtoe, or 32.1% lower. Natural gas supply under the APS is also 
predicted to be lower by 9.3% compared to the BAU scenario. However, supply from 
renewable energy, particularly from solar and waste-to-energy sources, will significantly 
increase (Figure 3.3).
4.3  Power Generation
In Brunei Darussalam, power generation capacity from public utilities is dominated by 
natural gas. From 806.2 MW of installed capacity (including 1.2 MW solar PV), diesel 
contributes only 12 MW. In addition to the public utilities capacity, autoproducers’ 
capacity in 2015 was 116.9 MW. Based on the model projection under BAU, about 17.74 
TWh of electricity will be generated in 2040 from both public utilities and autoproducers, 
including from renewable energy of 0.05 TWh. Under the APS, electricity generation in 
2040 is projected at about 13.08 TWh, a decrease of 26.3% in electricity generation from 
the BAU scenario, which includes renewable energy at 0.9 TWh. The decrease is due to 
the decommissioning of the diesel power plants in Temburong in 2021. As planned in the 
Figure 3.3: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
–32.1%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–76.9%
–9.3%
519%


73
Brunei Darussalam Country Report
APS, all thermal power plants in Brunei Darussalam will be combined-cycle gas turbines 
(with improved efficiency of 45%) and cogeneration power plants.
4.4  Projected Energy Savings2
The energy saving potential that could be achieved through the implementation of 
legislative measures on EEC, as well as the development of renewable energy in Brunei 
Darussalam, is about 1.76 Mtoe of the TPES, or equivalent to a reduction of 18.7% from 
the BAU scenario in 2040. 
4.5  Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Business-As-Usual Scenario
The percentage increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions correlates to the increase 
in the TPES. This is expected because the energy mix for Brunei Darussalam is 99% 
dependent on fossil fuels. In 2015, the LEAP model shows 6.7 million tons of carbon 
(Mt-C). An increase of 3.6% per year is expected with an eventual value of 16.0 Mt-C in 
2040 (Figure 3.5).
2 
The difference between primary energy consumption in BAU and the APS.
Figure 3.4: Reduction of Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
1.76 Mtoe, -18.7%


74
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Alternative Policy Scenario
As of this writing, Brunei Darussalam is still finalising the Nationally Determined 
Contributions (NDC)  target, which will be reported before 2020. Therefore, the current 
APS is equal to the target of the NDC. In the APS, CO2 emissions could decrease by 27.9% 
in 2040 compared to the BAU scenario. The results of the model show that a total of 10.6 
Mt-C will be emitted by 2040. The decrease in CO2 is significantly attributed to improved 
efficiencies of power generation plants (Figure 3.5). 
5.   Policy Implications
Based on Brunei’s second national communication submitted to the United Nations 
Framework Convention on Climate Change in November 2017, major mitigation efforts 
of the energy sector mainly focused on the following:
a)  Setting Sustainable Development Targets for the Energy Sector
i)  The energy sector aims to reduce energy intensity by 45% in 2035 from the 
baseline year of 2005. Energy intensity can be reduced through energy efficiency 
improvements and energy conservation as well as by diversifying the economy to 
high value-added but less energy-intensive industries.
Figure 3.5: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0
Million Tons of Oil Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
4.45 Mtoe, 27.9%


75
Brunei Darussalam Country Report
ii) Deployment of renewable energy technologies is targeted to increase by 10% by 
2035. This could be achieved by both public and private sector investments on 
these technologies. At present, policy frameworks that incentivise private sector 
investments are being prepared.
b)  Promoting EEC
i)  Improving supply-side efficiency. The government is pursuing a strategy to 
improve efficiency of existing open-cycle gas turbines through the installation of 
heat recovery steam generators while more efficient combined-cycle gas turbines 
are being used for new capacity expansion.
ii)  Managing electricity demand. Demand management is one strategy to reduce the 
use of fossil fuels in electricity generation. This could be achieved by improving 
energy efficiency of the stock of energy technologies and increasing the efficiency 
of the use of existing technologies.
•  
EEC building guidelines and standards and labelling scheme. The Building 
Guidelines and the soon-to-be implemented standards and labelling order 
for electrical appliances are regulatory frameworks that allow only efficient 
technologies to be used in new buildings, and only efficient electrical 
appliances to be sold in the market.
• 
Energy management. The planned energy management scheme will ensure 
that existing equipment and technologies are operating at efficiency levels 
consistent with industry’s best practices.
• 
Tariff reforms. The progressive electricity tariff structure, which was 
introduced in 2012, is an economic tool to manage efficient use of energy by 
providing a financial disincentive to higher energy consumption.
iii)  Managing transport energy demand. Among the end-use sectors, the 
contribution of the transport sector in the overall emissions is significant. Road 
transport energy demand management is key to reducing fossil fuel consumption 
of the sector. The strategies outlined in the Land Transport Master Plan could be 
categorised as follows:
• 
Efficient transport technologies. Promoting the deployment of efficient and 
less-polluting vehicles and fuel technologies is outlined in the 4th strategy of 
the Land Transport Master Plan. The implementation of measures under this 
strategy will improve the overall efficiency of the road transport fleet.
• 
Improving fuel economy through traffic flow improvement. Vehicles often 
reach their optimal fuel economy at specific speeds. Vehicles have lower 
fuel economy at slower speeds. Managing traffic volume and reducing road 
congestion would improve fuel economy of the vehicle fleet.


76
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
• 
 Managing private transport demand. The strategy to reduce car dependency 
through the development of public transport systems would eventually reduce 
individual transport demand and consequently reduce fuel consumption. 
In addition, strengthening the management of the transport infrastructure 
and services would further encourage a shift from individual travel towards a 
mass transport system.
Along with economic development to achieve the objectives of Wawasan Brunei 2035, a 
significant increase in the activity level of all economic sectors, including the energy sector, 
is expected. Despite the increased focus on EEC, energy demand of Brunei Darussalam 
is projected to increase steadily. In meeting the growing domestic energy demand, fossil 
fuels will remain as the primary source of supply for the country. 
The results of the model used by this study show the improvement in energy efficiency, 
when coupled with the implementation of appropriate legislative measures and 
development of renewable energy, contributing to the reduction in the TPES and the 
TFEC at 18.7% and 19.2%, respectively. The model also shows that improvement in 
energy efficiency will help reduce CO2 emissions by 27.9%.


77
CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT
Chiphong Sarasy, Ministry of Mines and Energy, Cambodia
1.   Background
The Kingdom of Cambodia is located in the lower Mekong region of Southeast Asia. The 
country has an area of 181,035 square kilometres; with an 800 kilometre border with 
Thailand in the west, Lao People’s Democratic Republic in the north, and Viet Nam in the 
east. The physical landscape is dominated by lowland plains around the Mekong River and 
Tonle Sap Lake. About 2.5 million hectares are arable land and over 0.5 million hectares 
are pastureland. 
The real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 was almost US$1 15.9 billion (World 
Bank, 2017), comprising agriculture (29%), industry (26.18%), and services (39.43%). 
Cambodia’s economy maintained high economic growth exceeding 7% since 2011. The 
Ministry of Economy and Finance predicted that the GDP growth rate will be maintained 
at the 7% range.
The population census of Cambodia 2008 revealed 13,388,910 people, 56% of whom 
were under 24 years old (NIS, 2009). Cambodia’s population in 2015 was 15.5 million. As 
migration into urban areas has been continuous, the urban population can be more than 
15% of the national population. The population density is about 75 people per square 
kilometres. About 85%–90% reside in rural areas. Phnom Penh, the capital city, has about 
2 million people, and Siem Reap Province has about 100,000.
Cambodia’s power generation facility by fuel type is shown in Table 4.1. The installed capacity 
of hydropower occupied around 55% of the total. The generated energy by hydropower in 
2016 was around 1.2 times as much as in 2015. Cambodia’s hydropower energy potential 
was estimated with the theoretical potential of about 10,000 megawatts (MW), of which 
50% is in the Mekong mainstream, 40% in its tributaries, and the remaining 10% is in the 
southwestern coastal area outside the Mekong River Basin. Hydropower capacity will be 
developed up to 4,000 MW by 2030. Coal-fired power generation will have a capacity of 
403 MW by 2015.
CHAPTER 4
1 
All US$ in this report are in constant 2010 values unless specified.


78
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 4.1: Power Generation Facility by Fuel Type
No
Type of Generation
Installed Capacity (MW)
Proportion in %
for 2016
2015
2016
1
Hydro
   929.7
  930.0
55.3
2
Diesel/heavy fuel oil
  304.6
  304.2
18.1
3
Biomass 
    19.9
  17.6
1.1
4
Coal
 403.0
 429.2
25.5
5
Solar
      0.0
     0.0
0.00
Total
1,657.2
1,689.0
100.00
MW = megawatt.
Source: EAC (2017).
Cambodia’s total primary energy supply in 2015 stood at 7 million tons of oil equivalent 
(Mtoe). Renewable energy (mostly biomass) represented the first-largest share of the 
total primary energy supply at 62.4% while oil was the second-largest share at 27.4%, 
followed by coal at 8.3%. The remaining share is the electricity import (1.9%).
Total final energy consumption was about 6 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2015. 
It is dependent on imports of petroleum products, having no crude oil production or 
oil refining facilities. Its electricity supply is dominated by hydro at 45.5% with oil, coal, 
biomass, and imports accounting for the rest. 
2.   Modelling Assumptions
2.1.  GDP and Population
Forecasting energy demand to 2040 assumes that the GDP of Cambodia will grow at an 
annual rate of 5.5%. Its population, on the other hand, is projected to grow at 1.5% per 
year resulting in a growth rate of GDP per capita of 3.9% per year up to 2040 (Table 4.2).
Table 4.2: Updated Cambodia Energy Information
Year
2015
2020
2030
2040
AAGR (%) 
2015–2040
GDP
15.9
20.8
35.5
60.6
5.5
Population
15.5
16.7
19.4
22.5
1.5
AAGR = aggregate annual growth rate, GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Author’s assumptions based on various consultations.


79
2.2.  Electricity Generation
On future electricity supply, hydro is expected to dominate Cambodia’s fuel mix in 2040, 
followed by coal. This is a big change from the current oil-dominated electricity generation. 
According to the Electricity Supply Development Master Plan for 2010–2020, Cambodia 
will have a total additional installed electricity generation capacity of 3,536 MW, of which 
1,050 MW will come from coal-fired power plants to be installed from 2010 to 2018. 
Hydro will make up 2,606 MW of the total. From 2020 to 2040, hydro will meet the 
additional electricity generation capacity requirements (Tables 4.3 and 4.4). 
Table 4.3: BAU Installed Capacity
Technology
Installed Capacity (MW)
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Coal
535
785
1,385
1,985
2,185
2,485
Oil
264
0
0
0
0
0
Natural gas
0
0
0
900
900
1500
Hydro
979
1,379
2,523
3,819
4,019
4,619
Other
Biomass
74
74
74
74
74
74
Solar, wind
10
10
10
10
300
300
Biofuel
0
0
0
0
0
0
Electricity
416
416
416
416
416
416
Total
2,278
2,664
4,408
7,204
7,894
9,394
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s assumptions based on administrative data of various agencies.
Table 4.4: APS Installed Capacity
Technology
Installed Capacity (MW)
2017
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Coal
535
535
535
535
535
535
Oil
264
0
0
0
0
0
Natural gas
0
300
300
300
300
300
Hydro
979
2,000
2,800
3,600
4,800
5,600
Other
Biomass
74
150
200
300
400
500
Solar, wind
10
100
400
600
800
1,000
Biofuel
0
0
0
0
0
0
Electricity
416
650
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Total
2,278
3,735
5,135
6,535
8,335
9,735
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, MW = megawatt.
Source: Author’s assumptions based on administrative data of various agencies.
Cambodia Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
2.3.  Energy Efficiency and Conservation Policies
Cambodia’s energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) policies aim to achieve an integrated 
and sustainable programme that will facilitate improvements in energy efficiency in the 
major energy-consuming sectors and help prevent wasteful fuel consumption. To achieve 
these aims, the country realises the need to transform the market towards more efficient 
energy use, increased access to energy efficiency project financing, and the establishment 
of energy efficiency regulatory frameworks. As a start, Cambodia is implementing the 
following pilot projects:
• 
Improving the efficiency of the overall supply chain for home lighting in rural areas by 
providing decentralised rural energy services through a new generation of rural energy 
entrepreneurs.
• 
Assisting in market transformation for home and office electrical appliances through 
bulk purchases and dissemination of high-performance lamps, showcasing of energy-
efficient products, support to competent organisations for testing and certification 
of energy-efficient products, and establishment of ‘green learning rooms’ in selected 
schools to impart life-long education on the relevance of EEC.
• 
Improving energy efficiency in buildings and public facilities.
• 
Improving energy efficiency in industries in cooperation with the United Nations 
Industrial Development Organization and the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy 
(now changed to Ministry of Mines and Energy) to be implemented in the following 
sectors: rice mill, brick kiln, rubber refinery, and garment.
Cambodia has also started preparing an action plan for EEC in cooperation with the Energy 
Efficiency Design sub-working group. Specific actions plans are being drafted for the 
industry, transport, and ‘others’ sectors. The initial estimates of sector demand reduction 
of existing consumers from these actions plans are 10% by 2015 and 15% by 2035 relative 
to the BAU scenario. These initial estimates were used in forecasting the energy demand 
in the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS).
The previous Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy, in close consultation with the 
European Union Energy Initiative Partnership Dialogue Facility , agreed to launch a project 
to support the Royal Government of Cambodia in the elaboration of the National Energy 
Efficiency Policy, Strategy and Action Plan (MIME, 2013). The inception phase of the 
project began in August 2012; the project was concluded in April 2013 through a final 
workshop, which elaborated the recommendations and conclusion in the plan.


81
The National Energy Efficiency Policy, Strategy and Action Plan targets energy efficiency 
in the following priority areas: industry, end-user products, buildings, rural electricity 
generation and distribution, and use of biomass resources for residential and industrial 
purposes.
The energy efficiency assumptions in the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning 
System, or LEAP model, are based on the assessment of the energy efficiency potential 
for buildings, industry, and transport. The overarching target of the National Energy 
Efficiency Policy is to reduce energy demand by 20% in 2035 relative to the BAU scenario. 
2.4.  Cambodia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions 
 
 
 (INDC)
Cambodia’s intended greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation contribution for the non- 
LULUCF2 sectors, conditional upon the availability of support from the international 
community, will be a reduction of 3,100 total greenhouse gas emissions (Gg CO2e) 
compared to the baseline emissions of 11,600 Gg CO2e by 2030. This amounts to 27% 
reduction of GHG emissions by 2030 (Table 4.5).
2 
Land use, land-use change, and forestry. 
Table 4.5: Cambodia’s INDC Targets
Sector
Priority Action
Reduction as Gg 
CO2eq  and % in 
2030 Compared to 
the Baseline 
Energy industry
• National grid connected renewable energy generation 
(solar energy, hydropower, biomass, and biogas) and 
connecting decentralised renewable generation to the grid 
• Off-grid electricity such as solar home systems, hydro (pico, 
mini, and micro) 
• Promoting energy efficiency by end users 
1,800 (16%)
Manufacturing 
industries
Promoting use of renewable energy and adopting energy 
efficiency for garment factories, rice mills, and brick kilns. 
727 (7%)
Transport
• Promoting mass public transport 
• Improving operation and maintenance of vehicles through 
motor vehicle inspection and eco-driving, and the increased 
use of hybrid cars, electric vehicles, and bicycles 
390 (3%)
Other
• Promoting energy efficiency for buildings and more efficient 
cook stoves 
• Reducing emissions from waste through use of biodigesters 
and water filters 
• Using of renewable energy for irrigation and solar lamps 
155 (1%)
Total Savings
3,100 (27%)
Gg CO2e - total greenhouse gas emissions, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. 
Source: Kingdom of Cambodia (2015).
Cambodia Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.   Outlook Results 
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Primary energy consumption in Cambodia grew at 4.6% per year, which is a slightly faster 
rate than final energy demand from 2.84 Mtoe in 1995 to 7.04 Mtoe in 2015. Amongst 
the major energy sources, oil grew the fastest. Oil consumption grew at an average annual 
rate of 6.9% between 1995 and 2015 (Figure 4.1).
In  the BAU scenario, Cambodia’s primary energy consumption is projected to increase 
at an annual rate of 3.1% per year or 2.2 times, from 7.04 Mtoe in 2015 to 15.24 Mtoe 
in 2040. The fastest growth is expected in hydro, increasing at an annual average rate of 
9.1% between 2015 and 2040, followed by coal (6.7%) and oil (3.7%). The share of hydro 
is projected to increase from 2.4% in 2015 to 9.9% in 2040. This growth in the share is due 
to the huge potential of water reserves available in Cambodia. The share of oil is projected 
to increase from 27.4% in 2015 to 31.2% in 2040 due to the growth of the number of cars 
and motorbikes.
Figure 4.1: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = miilion tons of oil equivalent. 
Source: Author’s calculation.
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe


83
The strongest growth in demand is projected to occur in the transport sector at an average 
annual rate of 3.9% per year or 2.6 times, from 1.39 Mtoe in 2015 to 3.59 Mtoe in 2040. 
In addition, the industry sector is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3.5% or 2.3 times, 
from 1.03 Mtoe in 2015 to 2.41 Mtoe in 2040, followed by the non-energy sector at 3.2% 
(from 0.05 Mtoe in 2015 to 0.10 Mtoe in 2040) and the ‘others’ sector at  2% (from 3.45 
Mtoe in 2015 to 5.67 Mtoe in 2040).
3.1.2. 
 Final energy demand
3.1.2.1. By sector
Cambodia’s final energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 4.3% per year, from 
2.54 Mtoe in 1995 to 5.93 Mtoe in 2015.
 
In the BAU scenario, driven by assumed strong economic growth and an increasing 
population, final energy demand is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.8% 
or around 2 times, from 5.93 Mtoe in 2015 to 11.77 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 4.2).
Figure 4.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = miilion tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Others
Transportation
Industry
Non-energy
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.1.2.2. By fuel type
Electricity is projected to exhibit the fastest growth in final energy demand at 8.4% per 
year, or 7.6 times, from 0.43 Mtoe in 2015 to 3.24 Mtoe in 2040. Oil is projected to have 
the second-highest growth rate of 3.8% per year or 2.5 times, from 1.87 Mtoe in 2015 to 
4.75 Mtoe in 2040. ‘Others’, which mainly include solid and liquid biofuels, will increase 
at 0.2% per year from 3.62 Mtoe in 2015 to 3.76 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 4.3).
Figure 4.3: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = miilion tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Heat
Others
3.1.3. 
 Electricity generation
 
Electricity generation in Cambodia increased at 16.8% per year from 0.20 TWh in 1995 to 
4.40 TWh in 2015. From 1995 to 2000, electricity was 100% generated by oil-powered 
power plants. By 2015, three other types of power plants had contributed in electricity 
generation in Cambodia. Coal-fired power plants have a share of 48.4%, hydro with a 
45.5% share, and ‘others’ with a 0.9% share.


85
3.1.4. 
  CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to increase by 5.4% per year from 
2.02 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 7.60 Mt-C in 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Oil is the largest source of carbon emissions; it will increase from 1.39 Mt-C in 2015 to 
3.55 Mt-C in 2040. Emissions from coal would grow the fastest at 6.8% per year, from 
0.63 Mt-C in 2015 to 3.24 Mt-C in 2040 (Figure 4.5).
In the BAU scenario, to meet the demand for electricity, power generation is projected to 
increase at an average rate of 9% per year between 2015 and 2040. The fastest growth in 
electricity generation will be in ‘others’ (11.7% per year), followed by hydro (9.1% per year) 
and coal (7.5% per year) (Figure 4.4). Generation from oil-fired power plants will decrease 
considerably due to high fuel costs.
Figure 4.4: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 4.5: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Million Tons of Carbon
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
3.1.5. 
 Energy indicators
Primary energy intensity had a decreasing trend from US$775 toe/million in 1995 to US$ 
442 toe/million in 2015. In the BAU scenario, energy intensity will further decrease to 
US$ 251 toe/million in 2040. This indicates that energy will be used more efficiently in 
economic development. Such is mainly due to the dominance of conventional biomass 
use in the rural areas of the country, and its future growth will be slower than GDP growth.
Primary energy per capita had been increasing from 0.3 toe per person in 1995 to 0.5 
toe per person in 2015. In the BAU scenario, energy per capita will further increase to 
0.68 toe per person in 2040. This indicates that living standards of people are improving, 
resulting in increasing energy demand per capita. Figure 4.6 shows various indicators for 
energy consumption.


87
CO2 per primary energy in the BAU scenario is projected to increase from 0.3 metric tons 
of carbon per toe (t-C/toe) in 2015 to 0.50 t-C/toe in 2040, implying faster growth of 
fossil fuels in total energy consumption. However, CO2 intensity had been increasing from 
108 t-C/million US$ in 1995 to 127 t-C/million US$ in 2015. It will drop to 125 t-C/
million US$ in 2040.
4. 
  Scenario Analysis
4.1.  Alternative Policy Scenario 
The APS consists of scenarios such as the EEC scenario (APS1), improvement of energy 
efficiency in power generation (APS2), and development of renewable energy (APS3). 
The scenarios were individually modelled to determine the impact of each on reduction 
of energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Below are the assumptions in each scenario:
Source: Author’s calculation.
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita
Figure 4.6: Energy and CO2 Indicators 
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990 = 100
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
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88
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
• 
APS1: focus on EEC on the demand side, such as
- 
energy demand in all sectors to be equal in numbers in 2015 and reduced by 20% 
by the year 2040 relative to the BAU scenario
- 
using efficient motorbikes and hybrid car in road transport
- 
replacing inefficient devices with efficient ones in the commercial and residential 
sectors, such as in cooking, lighting, refrigeration, air conditioning. 
• 
APS2: improvement of energy efficiency in thermal power plants. Energy efficiency of 
coal and fuel oil thermal power plants is assumed to stay constant at 32% until 2040 
in the BAU scenario. In the APS, new coal fired power plants are assumed to have 
thermal efficiencies of 39%.
• 
APS3: Maximum capacity of 5,000 MW for hydro power plants by 2040 is assumed 
in this scenario.
• 
APS5 or APS: combination of APS1 to APS3.
The assumptions in the APS were analysed separately to determine the individual impacts 
of each assumption in APS1, APS2, APS3, and APS5. Figure 4.7 shows the changes 
in primary energy supply in all scenarios. APS1 and APS5 have the largest reduction in 
primary energy supply in 2040 due to the energy efficiency assumptions on the demand 
side. Energy efficiency assumptions in APS1 could reduce primary energy supply in the 
BAU scenario by as much as 12.2 Mtoe or 20%. For APS5, the reduction will be slower, 
amounting to 13 Mtoe or 14.4%.
Figure 4.7: Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply by 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = millions of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
APS5
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
Mtoe
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


89
Figure 4.8 shows the total electricity generation in 2040 in all scenarios. In APS1, due to 
the lower electricity demand, the fossil fuel–fired electricity generation will be lower than 
19% compared to the BAU scenario. In APS2, the share is the same as that of the BAU 
scenario. In APS3, due to the assumption of more renewable energy, the fossil fuel–fired 
generation will only be 14%. In APS5, where all scenarios are combined, the reduction in 
the share of fossil energy–based generation will be significant at almost 32.6% lower than 
the BAU scenario.
Figure 4.9 compares scenarios of CO2 emissions in 2040. In terms of CO2 emission 
reduction, the energy efficiency assumption in APS1 could reduce emissions by 21.2% 
in 2040 compared with the BAU scenario. In APS2, the installation of more efficient 
new power plants is projected to reduce emissions by 16.8%. Higher contributions from 
renewable energy could reduce emissions by 36.9%. All these assumptions combined 
(APS5) could reduce the BAU scenario CO2 emissions by 34.5% in 2040. 
Figure 4.8: Comparison of Scenarios of Electricity Generation by 2040
Source: Author’s calculation.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
TWh
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
APS5
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 4.9: Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions, 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
TWh
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
APS5
4.2.  Energy Saving Potential and CO2 Emissions Reduction
4.2.2. 
 Final energy demand
In the APS, final energy demand is projected to increase at a slower rate of 2.8% (compared 
with 2.8% in the BAU scenario), from 5.93 Mtoe in 2015 to 10.02 Mtoe in 2040 because 
of EEC measures assumed in APS1 in the industry, transport, and ‘others’ (residential and 
commercial) sectors.
The APS final energy demand is 1.8 Mtoe lower than the BAU scenario, indicating that 
the APS includes savings up to 1.8 Mtoe.  The bulk of the savings are expected to occur 
in the ‘others’ sector (0.9 Mtoe), followed by the transport sector (0.5 Mtoe), and the 
industry sector (0.4 Mtoe).
An improvement in end-user technologies and the introduction of energy management 
systems are expected to contribute to the slower growth rate of consumption, particularly 
in the ‘others’ (residential and commercial), industry, and transport sectors (Figure 4.10).


91
4.2.3. 
 Primary energy consumption
In the APS, primary energy consumption is projected to have a slower increase rate of 
2.5% per year, from 7.04 Mtoe in 2015 to 13.04 Mtoe in 2040. The savings could mostly 
be derived from the EEC scenarios on the demand side and development of renewable 
energy technology (APS3).
In the APS, hydro is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.0% compared with 
the 9.1% annual growth in the BAU scenario, followed by coal with a 5.9% annual growth 
rate compared with 6.7% in the BAU scenario, and oil with 3.3% compared with 3.7% in the 
BAU scenario over the same period.
The total savings amount to 2.2 Mtoe, which is equivalent to 21.5% of Cambodia’s primary 
energy consumption in 2040 (Figure 4.11).
Figure 4.10: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU vs APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = millions of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
–14.9%
–15.0%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–15.0%
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92
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 4.11: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe - million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
2.19 Mtoe, –14,4%
The reduction in consumption, relative to the BAU scenario, comes from EEC measures 
on the demand side (APS1), more aggressive uptake of energy efficiency in thermal power 
plants (APS2), and adoption of renewable energy (APS3) on the supply side. Accordingly, 
the energy saving potential from gas energy sources would be 85.1%, followed by coal at 
16.3%, oil at 8.4%, and ‘others’ at 3.9% (Figure 4.12).
Figure 4.12: Total Primary Energy Saving Potential by Fuel Type, BAU vs APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–16.3%
–85.1%
–8.4%
–3.9%


93
4.2.4. 
 CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions from energy consumption under the BAU scenario are projected to 
increase by 5.4% per year from 2.02 (Mt-C) in 2015 to 7.60 Mt-C in 2040. Under the 
APS, the annual increase in CO2 emissions is projected to be 3.7% per year between 2015 
and 2040, which represents a 34.5% reduction from the BAU scenario.
The CO2 emissions reduction would be mostly derived from EEC measures on the demand 
side (APS1). Improvement of energy efficiency in thermal power plants (APS2) and 
development of renewable energy technologies (APS3) can also contribute significantly 
to CO2 reduction (Figure 4.13).
4.2.5. 
 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions/Nationally 
 
 
 Determined Contributions
CO2 emissions from energy consumption under the BAU scenario are projected to 
increase by 5.4% per year from 7.41 Mt-CO2e in 2015 to 27.8 Mt-CO2e in 2040. Under 
the APS, the annual increase in CO2 emissions is projected to be 3.7% per year between 
2015 and 2040. The APS emission in 2030 will be 3.9 Mt-CO2e lower than BAU, which 
is in line with Cambodia’s INDC.
Figure 4.13: CO2 Emissions by Fuel Type, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = millions of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
2.62 Mtoe, –34.5%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Scenarios
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
AAGR (%) 
2015-40
Reference (BAU)
 7.41 
 12.00 
 14.27 
 17.51 
 21.56 
 27.83 
54357.3%
Energy Efficiency (APS1)
 7.41 
 11.35 
 14.48 
 14.92 
 15.63 
 21.93 
4.4%
Efficient Supply (APS2)
 7.41 
 12.00 
 13.49 
 16.21 
 19.84 
 23.15 
4.7%
Renewable Energy (APS3)
 7.41 
 10.57 
 11.61 
 12.94 
 14.79 
 17.57 
3.5%
APS (Combined APS)
 7.41 
 10.80 
 13.15 
 13.63 
 14.29 
 18.22 
3.7%
Table 4.6: Results of CO2 Emissions by Scenario (Million Tons CO2)
AAGR = average annual growth rate, Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
5.   Key Findings and Policy Implications 
The above analysis on energy saving potential yields the following key findings:
• 
Energy demand in Cambodia is expected to continue to grow significantly, driven by 
robust economic growth, industrialisation, urbanisation, and population growth. EEC 
is the ‘new source’ of energy, and measures reflected in the APS are estimated to have 
significant potential to help meet future demand in a sustainable manner.
• 
Cambodia’s energy intensity will be further reduced due to efficient use of energy.
• 
The annual growth of energy demand in the transport sector is projected to be the 
highest at 3.9% in the BAU scenario and its share will increase continuously from 
23.5% in 2015 to 30.5% in 2040. This shows that the transport sector has a large 
energy saving potential.
• 
Electricity demand is increasing at the highest annual growth rate of 8.4% in the BAU 
scenario and is projected to be a slightly lower at 7.7% in the APS. 
• 
Hydropower plants will be the major power generation source in Cambodia. Their 
share in the total power generation output is increasing slightly from 5.5% in 2015, 
leading up to 45.8% in 2040. 
• 
Coal thermal plants will be the second major source of power generation in Cambodia. 
Its share in the total power generation output would decrease continuously from 
48.4% in 2015 to 34.1% in 2040. 


95
From the findings above and to be able to implement EEC activities in Cambodia 
effectively, the following actions are recommended:
• 
Promotion of the establishment of targets and road map for EEC implementation. The 
targets for EEC in Cambodia should be set up for the short, medium, and long term 
and focused on the building and industry sectors. The long-term plan should be set 
up based on an assessment of energy saving potential for all energy sectors, including 
the residential and commercial sectors, which have a large potential on energy saving 
until 2040. Moreover, some activities can promote EEC in Cambodia. Examples 
are (i) support for the development of professionals in the energy conservation 
field to be responsible persons for energy management and operation, verification 
and monitoring, consultancy, and engineering services provision and the planning, 
supervision, and promotion of the implementation of energy conservation measures; 
(ii) support for the development of institutional capability of agencies/organisations 
in the public and private sectors responsible for the planning, supervision, and 
promotion of the implementation of energy conservation measures; (iii) support for 
the operation of energy-saving companies to alleviate technical and financial risks 
of entrepreneurs wishing to implement energy conservation measures; (iv) public 
relations and provision of knowledge on energy conservation to the general public via 
the teaching/learning process in educational institutions, fostering youth awareness.
• 
Compulsory energy labelling for electrical appliances. The annual growth of electricity 
demand in the residential and commercial sectors is projected to be substantial 
compared to the other sectors. Compulsory energy labelling for electrical appliances 
could be an effective management measure to generate energy savings.
• 
Priority for the development of advanced hydro and coal thermal power technology. Hydro 
and coal thermal power plants will be the major power generation in Cambodia up 
to 2040. Therefore, advanced technologies for both types of resources should be 
prioritised for development from the project design stage.
• 
Priority for renewable energy development. Renewable energy is an important resource 
for energy independence, energy security, and GHG emissions abatement. It is 
necessary to build up the strategy and mechanisms to support renewable energy 
development.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
References 
Electric Authority of Cambodia (EAC) (2017), Report on Power Sector of the Kingdom of 
Cambodia. Phnom Penh: EAC. 
Kingdom of Cambodia (2015), ‘Cambodia’s Intended Nationally Determined 
Contribution’. 
https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/submissions/INDC/Published%20
Documents/Cambodia/1/Cambodia’s%20INDC%20to%20the%20UNFCCC.pdf 
(accessed 7 September 2017).
Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy (MIME) (2013), National Policy, Strategy And 
Action Plan On Energy Efficiency In Cambodia. Phnom Penh: MIME.
National Institute of Statistics (NIS) (2009), General Population Census of Cambodia 
2008. National Report on Final Census Results. Phnom Penh, NIS, Ministry of Planning.
World Bank (2017), World Development Index (WDI), Update September 2017. 
Washington, DC: World Bank (accessed 10 October 2017).


97
CHINA COUNTRY REPORT
Yu Hao and Mingyuan Zhao, Center for Energy and Environmental 
Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, China
1.   Background
1.1  Natural Conditions and History
China (officially known as the People’s Republic of China, the PRC) has a land area of 
9.6 million square kilometres (km2) and is situated in eastern Asia on the western shores 
of the Pacific Ocean. China’s continental coastline extends for about 18,000 kilometres, 
and its vast sea surface is studded with more than 5,000 islands. Due to its size, China’s 
climate is diverse, ranging from an unbearable 48ºC in the northwest during summer to an 
equally unbearable –40oC in the far north in winter.
China has more than 5,000 years of history. The PRC was founded on 1 October 1949. 
China has been implementing reforms and opening up its economy for 40 years and 
has established a socialist market economy, thereby charting the course for socialist 
modernisation with Chinese characteristics. 
1.2  Economy and Population
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017 was around US$12,225 trillion, which 
translates into a per capita GDP of around US$8,848.0 (in 2017 US$ terms). China 
is currently the world’s most populous country, with about 1.39 billion people in 
2017 (National Bureau of Statistics, 2017). To mitigate population growth, China has 
implemented a family planning policy since the 1970s. However, in 2015, the ‘one child’ 
policy ended, and couples that satisfy the conditions can have two children. China has 
been experiencing fast urbanisation at the annual growth rate of about 1% since 1978 
when China’s reform and opening up started. At the end of 2017, around 58.5% of the 
population lived in urban areas.
CHAPTER 5


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
1.3  Energy Situation
In terms of energy resources, China is endowed with coal, oil, and gas reserves and 
tremendous hydropower potential. China is the world’s largest coal producer and has the 
third-largest coal reserves, with recoverable reserves of 114.5 billion tons. In 2015, the 
country produced 3.75 billion tons of raw coal. China is still a major crude oil producer, 
with output of 214.6 million tons of crude oil in 2015. However, driven by very fast 
increases in oil demand, China became an oil importer in the 1990s. In 2014, the amount 
of net imported oil reached 328 million tons with a growth rate of 6.4% and a dependence 
level of more than 60%. China is also a large producer and exporter of energy-intensive 
items. In 2015, it produced 2.36 billion tons of cement and 1.12 billion tons of finished 
steel, of which 112 million tons were exported (National Bureau of Statistics and China 
Energy Statistics Yearbook).
China’s per capita energy reserves are considerably lower than those of the world average. 
The per capita average of both coal and hydropower resources is only about 50% of the 
world average, while the per capita average of both oil and natural gas reserves is only 
about one-fifteenth of the world average. The per capita average of arable land is less than 
30% of the world average, which hinders the development of biomass energy.
Since 1990, coal has dominated primary energy consumption, at 60.6%, while oil, natural 
gas, and hydro consumption accounted for 13.6%, 1.5%, and 1.3%, respectively. However, 
biomass consumption represented 23%, which is only lower than that of coal consumption. 
In 2015, coal was still a major fuel, with a higher share of about 66.7%. The share of other 
energy sources increased from 1990 levels to 18.0% for oil, 5.3% for gas, and 3.2% for 
hydro, but the share of biomass decreased to 3.5%. Primary energy consumption in China 
increased at an average annual rate of around 5% from 870.7 million tons of oil equivalent 
(Mtoe) in 1990 to 2,973.3 Mtoe in 2015. Energy intensity (primary energy demand per 
unit of GDP) declined from 1,050 tons of oil equivalent per million US$ in 1990 to 344 
tons of oil equivalent per million US$ in 2015.
Final energy consumption in China increased at a lower average annual rate of 4.4%, from 
664.2 Mtoe in 1990 to 1,905.7 Mtoe in 2015. Coal accounted for 47.9% of final energy 
consumption in 1990 and 36.8% in 2015. In 1990, oil consumption accounted for 12.7% 
of total final energy consumption and had increased rapidly at 7.4% per year between 
1990 and 2015, significantly increasing its share to 25.2% in 2015. Both electricity and 
natural gas consumption grew sharply at 16.0% and 5.5% per year, respectively, between 
1990 and 2015. It makes the shares of electricity and natural gas consumption increase 
from 5.9% and 1.3% in 1990 to 21.9% and 5.5% in 2015. In 2015, the share of electricity 
consumption had almost reached the same as that of oil consumption.


99
Industry is the major energy-consuming sector in China, followed by the residential and 
commercial (‘others’) sectors. The share of industry consumption increased from 36.7% 
in 1990 to 50.7% in 2015. Conversely, the share of energy consumption in the ‘others’ 
sector declined from 51.8% in 1990 to 25.4% in 2015 because of relatively faster growth 
in the industry and transport sectors.
Power in China is mainly generated from coal-fired power plants, whose electricity 
generation accounted for around 71% of the total amount in 1990. By 2015, this share 
increased to 78.2%. The share of hydro was 20.4% in 1990 but declined to 16.4% in 2015. 
Gas and oil, collectively, accounted for about 2.7% of total generation in 2015. The share 
of nuclear power increased to about 2.9% in 2015.
The Chinese government is pushing for the development of a modern energy industry. 
Resource conservation and environmental protection are two basic state policies, giving 
prominence to building a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society in the 
course of its industrialisation and modernisation.
2.   Modelling Assumptions
2.1.  Population and Gross Domestic Product
The model results for China have been developed by the Institute of Energy Economics, 
Japan and were taken from modelling of the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario and the 
Alternative Policy Scenarios (APS).
China’s population increased from 1.135 billion in 1990 to 1.375 billion in 2015. It is 
assumed to increase at an average rate of 0.2% per year in 2015–2040, the projection 
period. The population will peak at 1.450 billion around 2030 and reach 1.428 billion by 
2040.
China’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 10.2% from US$530.6 billion in 1990 
to about US$4.913 trillion in 2013 (in 2005 US$ terms). In this study, GDP is assumed 
to grow at a slower rate of 6.5% per year from 2015 to 2020 because of the ‘new normal’ 
state of China’s economy, 5.3% per year in 2020–2030, and 4.2% per year in 2030–2040. 
The average annual growth rate of GDP in 2015–2040 is 5.1%. It is calculated to reach 
US$31.116 trillion by 2040. Given GDP and population assumptions, GDP per capita in 
China is assumed to increase from around US$6,500 per capita in 2015 to US$22,400 
per capita in 2040.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
2.2.  Energy and Climate Change Policies and their Performance
Although China is still a developing country and its GDP per capita is around one-seventh 
that of the United States (according to nominal exchange rate) in 2015, the government 
has set ambitious goals of reducing energy intensity and addressing climate change issues. 
According to the data from relevant official departments, in the last 5 years, China has 
achieved significant energy conservation and remarkable progress in environmental 
protection and climate change mitigation.
China’s Outline of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) for the National Economic and 
Social Development stipulates that, by 2020, energy consumption per unit of GDP will 
drop by 15% from 2016. To achieve this goal, the government has already implemented 
administrative, market-based, and legal measures to promote energy conservation. 
Energy intensity reduction goals are assigned to provincial governments and progress is 
announced publicly every year. During the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), energy 
consumption grew at the rate of 3.6% and GDP increased at the rate of 7.8%. Accordingly, 
energy intensity decreased by 18.2%, successfully achieving the target of 16%. Energy 
consumption per unit of GDP in 2015 decreased by 5.6% compared with that of 2014.
In addition to energy intensity targets, controlling the total amount of energy consumption 
is proposed. According to the Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014–2020), 
China’s coal consumption (primary energy consumption) would be controlled at 2,940 
Mtoe in 2020 and primary energy consumption would be controlled at 3,362 Mtoe in 
2020. According to the 13th Five-Year Plan of Energy Development, by 2020, the ratio 
of coal consumption to total energy consumption should be lowered to at most 60%, and 
natural gas consumption should account for 10% of the total amount. In addition, the 
amount of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million.
China announced its goal of reducing CO2 emissions per GDP (carbon intensity) by 
40%–45% by 2020 and 60%–65% by 2030 from the 2005 level. Apart from the carbon 
intensity target, China also declared that the CO2 emissions will reach their peak at around 
2030. To meet the target, China has implemented ambitious energy efficiency and fuel-
switching policies. For instance, the government proclaimed its goal of cultivating 40 
million hectares of forested land to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In 2014, China’s 
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP dropped by 9.1% compared to the level of 2013. 


101
China also exerted great effort to develop non-fossil fuels and accelerate the development 
of renewable energy. The National People’s Congress passed the Renewable Energy 
Development Law of China in 2005 to support renewable energy development in the 
country. The government also announced the target of increasing the share of non-fossil 
energy to about 15% by 2020 (measured in coal-equivalent) and about 20% in 2030. 
Subsidisation policies have also been developed to encourage the development of wind 
power, solar photovoltaic (PV), and biomass. In 2015, China invested US$102.9 billion 
on renewable energy, accounting for 36% of the total amount in the world. By the end of 
2015, power generation capacity had reached 1,508 gigawatts (GW). Within this, the 
capacity of hydropower, which ranked first globally, reached 319 GW, increasing at a 
growth rate of 4.9%; the capacity of nuclear power plants was 26.08 GW; on-grid wind 
power capacity, which was the largest in the world, amounted to 129.34 GW, increasing 
33.5% year on year; on-grid solar power reached 43.18 GW, growing 73.7% from a year 
earlier. The installed electricity capacity of non-fossil fuel such as hydro, nuclear, wind, 
and solar energy – in 2015 took up 34.3% of the whole, 1.5% higher than that of 2014. 
The electricity generated from non-fossil fuels accounted for 25.1% of the total on-grid 
electricity in 2015. China’s current installed capacity, under-construction capacity, and 
generation of hydropower, the accumulative installed capacity of PV solar power, and 
the capacity of under-construction nuclear power all rank first in the world, which have 
positively contributed to addressing the problem of global climate change.
After the evaluation in 2015, China phased out the backward production capacity in the 
following industries: small thermal power units (4.23 GW), cement (50 million tons), 
and steel (30 million tons). To consume the surplus production capacity, from 2016 no 
new coal mine projects will be approved for 3 years, and steel production capacity will 
decrease by between 100 million and 150 million tons over 5 years.
The 2015 scenario analyses set five APSs: APS1 – energy efficiency and conservation 
(EEC) in the final consumption sectors; APS2 – EEC in thermal efficiency in coal, oil- 
and gas-fired power generation; APS3 – increase of hydro, geothermal, and new and 
renewable energy; APS4 – increase in nuclear energy; APS5 – implement APS1 to APS4. 
If not specifically declared, all results shown in this chapter under the APS refer to APS5.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Total Final Energy Consumption
Between 2015 and 2040, China’s final energy consumption is projected to grow slowly, 
reflecting lower assumed economic and population growth. 
Business-As-Usual Scenario
Final energy consumption is projected to increase at an average rate of 1.3% per year 
between 2015 and 2040. Transport sector consumption is projected to grow the fastest, 
increasing by 2.7% a year, followed by the non-energy sector of 1.9%. Energy consumption 
in the industry sector is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.2%. Figure 5.1 
shows China’s final energy consumption by sector under the BAU scenario.
Amongst energy sources, natural gas consumption in the BAU scenario, which is 
projected to exhibit the fastest growth, will increase by 5.2% per year, from 158.5 Mtoe in 
2015 to 556.5 Mtoe in 2040. Though coal is still a large portion in the whole final energy 
consumption, it is projected to increase at such a lower growth rate, -0.1% per year, 
achieving 1938.6 Mtoe in 2040, compared with -0.7% per year over the last 2 decades. 
Consumption of electricity and heat is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 
2.3% and 0.8%, respectively, over the same period, achieving 737.6 Mtoe and 110.0 Mtoe 
in 2040. Oil is projected to grow by 1.9% annually to around 853.4 Mtoe in 2040. Figure 
5.2 shows China’s final energy consumption by fuel type under the BAU scenario.
Figure 5.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual,  Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Others
Transport
Industry
Non-energy
654
781
1,906
2,134
2,421
2,602


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Alternative Policy Scenario 
In the APS, final energy consumption is projected to increase by 0.6% per year, from 
2,973.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 3,494.9 Mtoe in 2040, as a result of EEC programmes. An 
improvement in end-use technologies and the introduction of energy management 
systems are expected to contribute to slower energy growth in all sectors, particularly 
in the commercial, residential, and transport sectors. Figure 5.3 shows the final energy 
consumption in China in 2015 and 2040 in both the BAU scenario and the APS.
Figure 5.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
654
781
1,906
   2,134
2,421
2,602
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Heat
Others
Figure 5.3: Final Energy Consumption, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.  Primary Energy Supply
Primary energy supply in China is projected to grow at a slower pace than in the past years. 
Growth in primary energy supply is also expected to be slightly slower than final energy 
consumption because of improved efficiency in the energy transformation sector.
Business-As-Usual Scenario
In  the BAU scenario, China’s primary energy supply is projected to increase at an average 
annual rate of 1.2% per year to 4,014.9 Mtoe in 2040. Coal will still constitute the largest 
share in total primary energy, but its growth is expected to be slower and decreasing 
by -0.1% a year on average. Consequently, the share of coal in total primary energy is 
projected to decline from 66.7% in 2015 to 48.3% in 2040.
Nuclear energy is projected to exhibit the fastest growth between 2015 and 2040, 
increasing at an annual average rate of 7.2%, followed by natural gas at 5.2%. Oil and hydro 
are projected to grow at lower rates of 1.9% and 1.1% per year, respectively. The share of 
natural gas is projected to increase from 5.3% in 2015 to 13.9% in 2040, whereas the share 
of nuclear will increase from 1.5% to 6.3%. The share of oil is projected to increase from 
18% in 2015 to 21.3% in 2040, and hydro is projected to decrease from 3.2% in 2015 to 
3.1% in 2040. Figure 5.4 shows China’s primary energy supply by energy type under the 
BAU scenario.
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Figure 5.4: Primary Energy Supply by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040)
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
871
1,130
2,973
3,294
3,735
4,015
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


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Alternative Policy Scenario 
In the APS, primary energy consumption is projected to increase by 0.6% per year between 
2015 and 2040, reaching 3,494.9 Mtoe by 2040. The growth in primary energy supply 
is projected to be slower under the APS than the BAU scenario (Figure 5.5). Coal is 
projected to decrease by -1.1% a year, oil by 1.4% a year, and natural gas by 4.1% a year. For 
nuclear, the average annual growth rate will be higher than the BAU scenario, increasing 
by 8.7% a year between 2015 and 2040. The growth rate of hydro in the APS is expected 
to be higher than that of the BAU scenario, increasing by 1.3% per year. The consumption 
mitigated in the APS is achieved through EEC measures on the demand side.
3.3.  Projected Energy Savings
The implementation of EEC goals and action plans in China could reduce primary energy 
supply in 2040 by about 267.3 Mtoe under the APS relative to the BAU scenario. In 
the APS, China’s primary energy demand is around 10.3% lower than the BAU scenario 
(Figure 5.6).
In terms of final energy consumption, there are estimated savings of 110.6 Mtoe in the 
industry sector, 71.5 Mtoe in the transport sector, and 85 Mtoe in the ‘others’ sector in 
2040 under the APS.
Figure 5.5: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
–11.9%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–22.5%
–21.8%
20.8%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 5.6: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
3.4.  CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption
CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to increase by 0.6% per year, from 
2,545.4 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 2930.9 Mt-C in 2040, under the BAU 
scenario. This percentage increase is lower than that in primary energy supply (1.3%) over 
the same period, indicating improved emissions intensity in China’s economy.
In the APS, the annual increase in CO2 emissions between 2015 and 2040 is projected 
to be -0.4%. This rate is also lower than the average annual growth rate in primary energy 
supply over the same period. The difference between the APS and the BAU scenario CO2 
emissions growth rates indicates that the energy-saving goals and action plans of China 
are effective in reducing CO2 emissions (Figure 5.7).


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3.5.  Power Generation
Power generation in China is projected to grow more slowly between 2015 and 2040 than 
in the last decade. 
Business-As-Usual Scenario
In the BAU scenario, power generation in China is projected to grow at a slower pace, 
by 2.5% per year from 5,844.2 terawatt-hour (TWh) in 2015 to 10,054.5 TWh in 2040 
(Figure 5.8).
The share of coal power under the BAU scenario is projected to experience a decreasing 
trend from 70.3% in 2015 to 48.6% in 2040. Conversely, the share of natural gas and 
nuclear are both projected to grow because of cleanness, from 2.5% and 2.9% in 2015 to 
11.3% and 9.6% in 2040, respectively. The share of oil is projected to decrease slightly. 
In addition, other methods of power generation are projected to be increasing. The fast 
development of PV power generation in China is a typical example reflecting the country’s 
clean power generation tendency. China’s thermal efficiency by fuel under the BAU 
scenario is projected to increase between 2015 and 2040 (Figure 5.9).
Figure 5.7: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 5.8: Power Generation, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = business as usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Natura Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
621
1,356
5,844
6,891
8,638
10,054
Figure 5.9: Thermal Efficiency by Fuel, BAU 
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
%
%
1990
2000
2013
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
          Natural Gas
38.9
38.9
38.9
39.8
42.2
44.5
46.8
49.1
51.4
          Oil
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.6
36.0
36.3
36.7
37.0
37.4
          Coal
28.8
32.0
38.0
38.1
38.2
38.4
38.6
38.8
38.9


109
Alternative Policy Scenario
In the APS, total power generation will increase by 2.2% per year between 2015 and 
2040. By 2040, total power generation output is projected to reach 10,054.5 TWh. 
Except for coal-fired power, oil power, and natural gas power, the annual growth rate per 
year between 2015 and 2040 of all other fuels under the APS is projected to grow faster 
than in the BAU scenario. In 2040, nuclear power, hydro power, geothermal power, and 
‘others’ are projected to increase under the APS by 7.2%, 1.1%, 5.1%, 7.0% in 2015–2040, 
respectively.
3.6.  Energy Intensity
According to the assumed economic and population data, along with the projected 
energy information of China, energy intensity defined as total primary energy supply/GDP 
(TPES/GDP) and energy per capita are accounted and illustrated in Figure 5.10, along 
with other vital energy indicators under the BAU scenario. From 1990 to 2015, China’s 
energy intensity experienced a remarkable drop through efforts on energy efficiency. In 
2040, it is projected to drop to about 257 toe per million (in 2005 US$ terms). With 
improved living standards in China, energy per capita under the BAU scenario is projected 
to reach 3.18 toe per person in 2040. Compared with the energy intensity in the BAU 
scenario, that in the APS is projected to show a faster decreasing rate of 3.6% from 2015 
to 2040.
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Figure 5.10: Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 = 100
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
For China, which is the world’s largest developing country, eliminating poverty and 
improving the quality of life have always been paramount tasks. In recent years, China has 
witnessed fast growth in its economy, but the urbanisation rate is still low, with 58.5% in 
2017. 
On the other hand, being the world’s biggest energy consumer and CO2 emitter, China 
also faces great pressure to save energy and reduce CO2. Since the1990s, China has 
made great efforts and set ambitious targets on energy conservation and climate change 
mitigation. During the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summits, China and the 
United States issued a joint announcement on climate change, in which China vowed 
to decrease CO2 emissions from its peak and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in 
primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030. In April 2016, China signed the 
Paris Agreement, which includes the above commitments in addition to the provision 
that China cut its carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 60%–65% by 2030 from the 2005 
levels. In the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020), China plans to control the total energy 
consumption within 41 billion tons of standard coal and decrease its CO2 emissions per 
unit of GDP by 18% compared with 2015 levels.
As China’s GDP keeps growing, albeit at a slower pace compared with that of the last 
20 years, its energy demand and CO2 emissions will increase in the foreseeable future 
accordingly. However, energy intensity (energy demand per unit of GDP) and emissions 
intensity (CO2 emissions per unit of GDP) are required to decrease considering China’s 
targets. According to the model results, if sound energy efficiency and conservation 
policies could be implemented, China could reduce its total primary energy consumption 
by around 13.0% and CO2 emissions by about 21.6% by 2040. 
Coal consumption has decreased since 2014; it decreased by 3.7% in 2015. It is projected 
to be cut by 22.5% in the APS compared with the BAU scenario. To improve urban air 
quality, Chinese metropolises, such as Beijing and Shanghai, have shown great ambitions 
in controlling the use of coal, so the relatively low growth rate of coal consumption may 
persist in the following years. Therefore, clean and low-carbon energies are encouraged 
to develop, especially renewable and nuclear energy in the power generation sector. To 
optimise the energy structure, policies such as on energy and carbon taxes should be 
carried out, to limit the energy- and pollution-intensive industries. On the other hand, 
more market-based measures, for instance, electricity market reform, energy pricing 
reform, and green certificate trade, are needed to make energy more market-oriented and 
to motivate more enterprises to act.


111
The energy efficiency improvement in APS5 has the largest potential to reduce CO2 
emissions. Based on our calculation of 2015 scenario, within the APS5, the industry 
sector can potentially reduce energy consumption by 10.9% based on the APS5 results. 
Measures such as the closure of small and inefficient power plants, coal mines, and 
small energy-intensive plants in industries like cement and steel, and stricter approval 
requirements for energy-intensive industries are necessarily implemented. Moreover, 
the change in industrial structure (heavy to light industries or industry to services) is also 
needed. Furthermore, since China has entered the ‘new normal’ state of economy, in 
which economic growth rate would be moderately high, and the GDP of the tertiary sector 
has accounted for half of the total amount, in the long run, it is more important to enhance 
energy efficiency in the residential, commercial, and transport sectors for energy saving 
and CO2 reduction. Moreover, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by President Xi 
in 2013 is also a good chance to further save energy and reduce emissions. The countries 
along the route of BRI contribute to 50% of global energy consumption and more than 
60% of global carbon emissions. Thus, establishing a BRI low-carbon community is greatly 
significant to the improvement of energy structure and emissions reduction in both China 
and the world.
Reference
National Bureau of Statistics (2017), China Statistical Yearbook 2017 (Chinese-English 
Edition). Beijing: China Statistics Press.
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INDIA COUNTRY REPORT
a,b
1.   Country Brief
India, also called the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia and occupies an area 
of around 3.1 million square kilometres. It is the seventh-largest country by area, the 
second-most populous country (with over 1.2 billion people), and the most populous 
democracy in the world. It is bounded by the Indian Ocean in the south, the Arabian 
Sea in the southwest, and the Bay of Bengal in the southeast. It shares land borders with 
Pakistan to the west; China, Nepal, and Bhutan to the northeast; and Bangladesh and 
Myanmar to the east. 
Its climate comprises a wide range of weather conditions across a vast geographic scale and 
varied topography, making generalisations difficult. Based on the Köppen system, India 
hosts six major climatic subtypes, ranging from arid desert in the west, alpine tundra and 
glaciers in the north, and humid tropical regions supporting rainforests in the southwest 
and the island territories. Many regions have starkly different microclimates.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2018), India’s economy in 2017 was 
nominally worth US$2.611 trillion. It is the sixth-largest economy by market exchange 
rate, and the third-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) at US$9.459 trillion. With its 
average annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.8% over the past 2 decades 
and reaching 6.1% in 2011–2012, India is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. 
However, the country ranks 140th in the world in nominal GDP per capita and 129th in 
GDP per capita at PPP. Despite economic growth during recent decades, India continues 
to face socio-economic challenges, such as poverty and modern energy access. 
CHAPTER 6
Atul Kumar and Michael O. Dioha, TERI School of Advanced Studies, 
India  
Lu Zheng, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
a 
Based on model run and broad assumptions by The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, with inputs provided by 
TERI School of Advanced Studies. 
b 
Unless otherwise specified, the information in figures come from the results of the model run. 


113
2.   Energy Situation
Energy systems in India have evolved over the last 6 decades along with the country’s 
economic development, supporting the aspiration of 1.2 billion people within the 
framework of democratic polity, a globally integrated economy, and an environmentally 
sensitive regime. The ever-increasing demand of energy has posed tremendous pressure 
on its limited resources and has necessitated optimum use of its resources. India has 
pursued a reformed development agenda since 1991. Significant effort has gone into 
improving energy availability to support the country’s development initiatives. 
India is fuelled by primary (coal and lignite, natural gas), secondary (electricity and 
petroleum products), and renewable energy sources. India’s energy mix is dominated by 
coal. Coal forms the largest source of primary energy in India, accounting for around 50% 
of the total primary energy supply (GoI, 2017). Coal production has witnessed an upward 
trend. It was about 430.83 million tons (MTs) in 2006–2007, and increased to 639.23 
MTs in 2015–2016 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.02%. Production of 
crude petroleum increased from 33.99 MTs in 2006–2007 to 36.95 MTs in 2015–2016, 
a CAGR of about 0.84%. 
Crude oil imports increased by 10 MT, although the value of imports fell for the second 
year in a row. The total share of imported crude oil in India’s total supply was 84.3% in 
2015/16. India’s refining capacity increased to 230 MT per annum (MMTPA) owing to 
the commissioning of the Paradip refinery in Odisha, with a capacity of 15 MMTPA. The 
production of natural gas declined for the fifth year in a row to 32.2 billion cubic metres 
in 2015/16. Imports of liquefied natural gas grew to 19.95 MT in 2015/16. Import 
dependency of natural gas stands at 46%.
As of 31 January 2017, the total installed capacity of the power sector in India was 330 
gigwatts (GW), with thermal power having the largest share of 67% in total installed 
capacity (Figure 6.1).
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The all-India gross electricity generation from utilities, excluding that from captive 
generating plants, was 670,654 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 2006–2007. It rose to 
1,116,850 GWh in 2014–2015 (CSO, 2017). During 2015–2016, the production of 
electricity from utilities has further increased to 1,167,584 GWh, registering an annual 
growth rate of about 4.54%. Total electricity generation in the country from utilities and 
non-utilities in 2015–2016 was 1,335,956 GWh. Out of the total electricity generated 
through utilities, 943,013 GWh was generated from thermal, 121,377 GWh was from 
hydro, and 37,414 GWh was generated from nuclear sources. Total output from non-
utilities was 168,372 GWh.
As of June 2017, the cumulative installed capacity from renewable sources was 58.3 
GW in India, which was 17% of the total installed capacity of 330 GW. Currently, India 
ranks sixth worldwide in  renewable energy capacity (REN21, 2017). The current installed 
nuclear power capacity of the country is 5,780 MW, and it is expected to increase to 
10,080 MW by 2019. India is ranked 12th in terms of power generation from nuclear 
sources as per data published in May 2015 by the Power Reactor Information System  of 
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). India has signed nuclear agreements with 
the United States (US), France, Russia, Namibia, Mongolia, Republic of Korea, Argentine 
Republic, United Kingdom, Republic of Kazakhstan, Canada, Sri Lanka, and Australia 
(PIB, 2015). India’s installed capacity of hydro was 44,189.43 MW as of 31 January 2017 
(CEA, 2017b). Of the all-India target of 10,897 MW under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, 
3,311.02 MW of hydro capacity has been achieved (as of August 2015).
Figure 6.1: Grid Power Sources (GW) and their Percentage Shares up to June 2017
GW = gigawatt.
Sources: CEA (2017a), MNRE (2017).
Solar 13.1 GW (22%)
Wind 32.5 GW (56%)
Small Hydro 4.4 GW (8%)
Bio Power 8.2 GW (14%)
Waste-to-power 0.1 GW (0.2%)
Thermal
Nuclear
Large Hydro
Renewable
220,6 GW 
(67%)
44,6 GW 
(14%)
6,8 GW 
(2%)
58,3 GW 
(17%)


115
India Country Report
India’s final energy consumption has increased more than seven times since 1980, with 
the industry sector consuming the largest amount of energy. In 2015–2016, the industry 
sector accounted for about 52% of final energy consumption. This is followed by the 
transport sector (24%), and then the residential and commercial sectors (17%). The 
agriculture sector accounts for the least share of final commercial energy demand during 
the same period. 
3.   Modelling Assumptions
India’s GDP is assumed to grow from US$ 2.29 trillion of 2010 in 2015 to around US$ 
11.49 trillion of 2010 in 2040, equivalent to 6.5% and 6.7% average annual growth rates 
in 2015 and 2040, respectively. The population is assumed to grow at an average annual 
rate of 0.9% from 1.31 billion persons in 2015 to around 1.61 billion persons in 2040.  
Regarding future electricity supply, coal share in electricity generation will continue to 
be the largest. Meanwhile, nuclear power plants and others, especially wind and solar, 
are projected to increase to 2040. On the other hand, the shares of oil and hydro are 
expected to decrease. 
The implementation of energy efficiency programmes in power generation and energy 
end-use sectors are expected to attain India’s energy-saving goals. Improvements in 
highly energy-intensive industries and in inefficient small plants are some of the measures 
to ensure energy savings in the industry sector. In the residential and commercial sectors, 
significant savings can be induced through efficient end-use technologies and energy 
management systems. In the transport sector, improved vehicle fuel economy and more 
effective traffic management are important measures to improve efficiency. 
4. 
  Outlook Results
4.1.  Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario
This section describes the current trend of energy production and utilisation in the country, 
without any policy intervention, aimed at reducing energy demand or CO2 emissions.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4.1.1. 
 Total final energy consumption
Under the BAU scenario, with assumed strong economic growth and a rising population, 
India’s final energy demand is projected to increase at an average rate of 4.1% per year, from 
578 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2015 to 1,560 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 6.2). The 
strong growth is projected to occur in the transport and the industry sectors, increasing 
at 5.1% a year between 2015 and 2040. Strong growth is also expected in non-energy 
consumption (4.8% a year). Due to the large share of non-commercial energy in the final 
energy consumption, the growth rate of the ‘others’ sector that includes residential and 
commercial sectors is projected to be modest at 2.3% per year. However, in the residential 
and commercial sectors, the consumption of commercial energy, especially electricity, 
will increase rapidly.
The share of ‘others’ which is the largest at 43% in 2015, will drop to 28.3% in 2040. 
Meanwhile, the share of industry will increase to 43.1% in 2040 from 33.7% in 2015, and 
that of transport will reach 19% in 2040, from 14.9% in 2015.
In the final energy consumption by source, natural gas will have the fastest growth, 
increasing by 6.1% per year over the period 2015–2040 (Figure 6.3). Coal demand will 
have the second highest increase of 5.8% a year, followed by electricity (5.4% per year) 
and then oil (4.7% per year).
Figure 6.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
 BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Others
Transportation
Industry
Non-energy
243
315
578
720
1,082
1,560


117
Figure 6.3: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
243
315
1,082
1,560
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Others
578
720
4.1.2. 
 Primary energy supply
Under the BAU scenario, India’s primary energy supply will increase at an average annual 
rate of 4.1% to 2,312 Mtoe in 2040 from 851 Mtoe in 2015. Coal demand, driven by the 
demand of power generation, will grow at 5% per year and reach 1,290 Mtoe in 2040, from 
379 Mtoe in 2015, maintaining the largest share at 56% in 2040 (45% in 2015). Due to 
rapid motorisation, oil will increase to 592 Mtoe and will have the second-largest share 
at 26% in 2040. The average annual growth rate for oil demand in 2015–2040 would be 
4.3%. Natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 5.8% per year between 2015 
and 2040. Its share will be 7.6% in 2040, 2.5 percentage points up from 5.1% in 2015. 
Figure 6.4 shows the projected primary energy supply in India from 1990 to 2040 under 
the BAU scenario.
Within ‘others’, solar and wind will increase significantly. However, due to the negative 
growth of non-commercial biomass, which has the largest portion, ‘others’ is projected to 
decrease by 0.5% a year through to 2040. Its share will drop to 7.7% from 23.4% in 2015.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4.1.3. 
 Power generation
In 2015, power generation in India was 1,383 terawatt-hours (TWh). Under the BAU 
scenario, it will be increasing at the rate of 5.1% per year to 4,809 TWh in 2040. Coal will 
continue to dominate India’s power generation mix; however, the share will slightly drop 
from 75.3% in 2015 to 74.8% in 2040. Hydro’s share in India’s power generation mix will 
decline from 10% in 2015 to 6.7% in 2040, and oil’s share will decline from 1.7% in 2015 
to 0% in 2040. In contrast, the share of nuclear power will increase from 2.7% to 3.9%, 
and ‘others’, including wind and solar power, will increase from 5.4% to 9.8%. The share 
of natural gas will be 4.7% in 2040, and the average growth rate during 2015–2040 will be 
5% per year. Figure 6.5 shows the projected power generation in India from 1990 to 2040 
under the BAU scenario.
Figure 6.4: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
306
441
851
1,069
1,624
2,312
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Others


119
Figure 6.5: Electricity Generation, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWH = terawatt-hour.
Source: Model results.
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
293
570
1,383
1,926
3,255
4,809
4.1.4. 
 CO2 emissions
In 2015, CO2 emissions from India’s energy sector were 575 million tons of carbon (Mt-
C). Under the BAU scenario, CO2 emissions will be increasing at an annual rate of 4.9% 
to 1,894 Mt-C in 2040. Coal is the main source of CO2 emissions in India. CO2 emissions 
from coal will rise at an annual rate of 5% from 409 Mt-C in 2015 to about 1,393 Mt-C in 
2040. CO2 emissions from oil will increase by 4.4% annually, from 151 Mt-C in 2015 to 
441 Mt-C in 2040, while emissions from natural gas will increase at a rate of 5.6% from 
15 Mt-C to 59 Mt-C during the same period. In 2040, coal will account for around 73.5% 
of total energy CO2 emissions, followed by oil with a share of 23.3%; the remaining 3.2% 
comes from natural gas. Figure 6.6 shows the projected energy-related CO2 emissions in 
India from 1990 to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4.2.  Energy Saving and CO2 Reduction Potential
This section describes the energy saving and CO2 mitigation potential of different energy 
policies. Five alternative policy scenarios (APS) are considered and have been tagged as 
APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and APS5. APS1 is a scenario of improved efficiency in final 
energy demand. APS2 deals with more efficient thermal power generation. APS3 assumes 
a high contribution of renewable energy to total supply. APS4 involves the use of nuclear 
energy in the total supply, and APS5 is a combined effect of APS1, APS2, APS3, and 
APS4.
4.2.1  Final energy demand 
Total final energy consumption by 2040 in APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and APS5 will be 
1400, 1560, 1560, 3121, and 1400 Mtoe, respectively. This implies that only APS1 and 
APS5 can potentially reduce energy demand. (Figure 6.7). It may be observed that the 
final energy demand of APS2 and APS3 are the same with the BAU scenario.
Figure 6.6: CO2 Emissions under BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Model results.
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Million Tons of Carbon
148
245
575
752
1,252
1,894


121
Figure 6.7: Final Energy Consumption under APSs
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
Others
Transport
Industry
Non-energy
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Mtoe
Under APS5, final energy demand is projected to decrease by 10.3% in 2040 compared to 
the BAU scenario. The reduction in energy demand is expected to occur across all end-
use sectors, reflecting improvements in end-use technologies and the introduction of 
energy management systems (Figure 6.8).
 
In 2040, under APS5 relative to the BAU scenario, are estimated savings of 82 Mtoe 
(12.2%) in the industry sector, 40 Mtoe (13.4%) in the transport sector, and 38 Mtoe 
(8.5%) in the ‘others’ sector.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4.2.2  Primary energy demand
By 2040, primary energy demand in APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and APS5 will be 2057, 
2245, 2276, 2115, and 1973 Mtoe, respectively (Figure 6.9). The results indicate that 
primary energy supply in 2040 will reduce in APS1, APS2, APS3, and APS5 compared to 
the BAU scenario. Analysis shows that primary energy demand in APS4 will be higher than 
the BAU scenario.
Figure 6.8: Final Energy Consumption, BAU vs APS5 (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS5
Figure 6.9: Primary Energy Supply by Sectors, BAU vs APS5
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
Others
Transport
Industry
Non-energy
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Mtoe


123
Under APS5 relative to the BAU scenario, India’s primary energy demand is projected to 
decrease by 339 Mtoe or 14.7% (Figure 6.10).
Figure 6.10: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU vs APS5 (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
In APS5 in 2040 (Figure 6.11), coal consumption will decrease by 308 Mtoe or 23.9% 
while oil demand will drop by 66 Mtoe or 11.1%. The demand for natural gas is seen to 
fall by 26 Mtoe (14.8%). However, the demand for ‘others’, driven by strong demand for 
renewables (wind and solar), is observed to rise by 59.4% or 61 Mtoe.
Figure 6.11: Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU vs APS5 (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Model results.
–23.9%
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS5
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS5
–14.8%
–11.1%
24.0%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
In APS5, CO2 emissions in 2040 will be 1,489 Mt-C, 21% lower than in the BAU scenario. 
Less demand of coal in final demand and in power generation and of oil in the transport 
sector will contribute most to reduced CO2 emissions. Emissions from coal, oil, and 
natural gas in 2040 will decrease by 333 (24% reduction), 55.3 (13% reduction), and 16.7 
(28% reduction) Mt-C compared to the BAU scenario. Figure 6.13 shows CO2 emissions 
in 2040 under the BAU scenario versus APS5 in this energy outlook.
4.2.3. 
 CO2 emissions from energy consumption
By 2040, CO2 emissions in APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and APS5 will be 1646, 1824, 1807, 
1874, and 1489 Mt-C, respectively, compared to 1,984 Mt-C in the BAU scenario. The 
results indicate that CO2 emissions in 2040 will decrease by 405 Mt-C in APS5 compared 
to the BAU scenario (Figure 6.12).
Figure 6.12: CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU vs APSs
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Model results.
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Million Tons of Carbon
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal


125
Figure 6.13: CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, 
BAU and APS5 (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario,  BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Model results.
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS5
405Mt-C,-21.4%
4.2.4. 
 Implications
• 
Energy security and access to energy are key challenges to India. Enhanced domestic 
production of energy is necessary to address these challenges. 
• 
Hydrocarbons, particularly coal and oil, will continue to dominate the energy mix in 
both the BAU scenario and the APS. Use of domestic coal to secure supply as well as 
more efficient coal technologies such as ultra-supercritical, etc. would be necessary. 
In the long and medium terms, research and development on cleaner energy 
development will play a key role.
• 
Natural gas can play an important role in energy supply and environment issues. 
To fully utilise the increasing global natural gas production, the infrastructure for 
importation, domestic transportation, and utilisation needs to be enhanced.
• 
The Government of India announced ambitious targets for renewable energy, but the 
cost and infrastructure will be the bottlenecks. Developing domestic manufacturing 
capacity can play an important role.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
• 
Energy efficiency and demand-side management are important. New power plants, 
new factories, new buildings, new appliances, and new cars should be more efficient. 
The Minimum Energy Performance Standard and mandatory energy labels should be 
expanded to more equipment.
o 
The power sector has huge potential savings. Advance technologies for power 
generation should be used as much as possible.  
o 
Industry will account for 43% of the incremental energy use to 2040; energy 
efficiency programmes should be focused on this sector. Broadening the scope 
of the Perform, Achieve, Trade scheme will be an important way to achieve this. 
o 
Growth of energy consumption in the transport sector should be curtailed.
o 
Losses in electricity distribution should be minimised by using better technologies. 
 
• 
Rationalising energy prices across fuels and sectors is necessary. 
• 
In its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), India pledged to reduce the 
emissions intensity of its GDP by 33% to 35% by 2030 from the 2005 level. This can 
be achieved between APS2 to APS5. This implies that India is on course to achieve 
its NDC and make more climate commitments in the future when significant progress 
has been made towards achieving the NDC.


127
References
CEA (2014), All-India Electricity Statistics: General Review 2014. New Delhi: Central 
Electricity Authority, Government of India.
CEA (2017a), ‘Power Sector June 2017’, http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/
executivesummary/2017/exe_summary-06.pdf (accessed 22 February 2018).
CEA (2017b), ‘Power Sector Jan 2017’, http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/
executivesummary/2017/exe_summary-01.pdf (accessed 24 February 2018).
CSO 
(2017), 
‘Energy 
Statistics,’ 
http://www.mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/
publication_reports/Energy_Statistics_2017r.pdf.pdf (accessed 20 February 2018).
GoI (2017), ‘Coal Directory of India 2015-16: Coal Statistics,’ http://www.coalcontroller.
gov.in/writereaddata/files/Coal Directory of India 2015-16.pdf (accessed 1 March 
2018).
IMF (2018), ‘World Economic Outlook Database – Report for Selected Countries and 
Subjects,’ 
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/weorept.
aspx?pr.x=48&pr.y=6&sy=2017&ey=2018&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1
&c=534&s=NGDPD%2CPPPGDP%2CNGDPDPC%2CPPPPC&grp=0&a= (accessed 26 
May 2018).
MNRE (2017), ‘Initiatives and Achievements’, http://mnre.gov.in/mission-and-
vision-2/achievements (accessed 24 February 2018). 
PIB (2015), ‘India Ranks at 12th Position in Terms of Power Generation from Nuclear 
Source as per data Published in May 2015 by PRIS of IAEA,’ http://pib.nic.in/newsite/
PrintRelease.aspx?relid=123553 (accessed 24 February 2018).
REN21 (2017), Renewables 2017: Global Status Report, Paris: REN21 Secretariat.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
INDONESIA COUNTRY REPORT 
Cecilya Laksmiwati Malik, Energy Policy Planning Expert 
(Independent Consultant), Indonesia
1.   Background
Indonesia is the largest archipelagic state in Southeast Asia comprising 17,504 islands 
scattered over both sides of the equator. The five largest islands are Java, Sumatra, 
Kalimantan (the Indonesian part of Borneo), New Guinea (shared with Papua New 
Guinea), and Sulawesi. The country shares land borders with Papua New Guinea, Timor-
Leste, and Malaysia. Other neighbouring countries include Singapore, the Philippines, 
Australia, and the Indian territories of Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Indonesia covers an area of 1.913 million square kilometres and is the world’s 16th largest 
country in terms of land area. The 2010 population census showed that Indonesia’s 
population reached 238 million people with an average population density of 124 people 
per square kilometre. It increased to 258 million people in 2015 and, by the end of 2016, 
reached 261 million people (World Bank, 2017).
Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) was US$988 billion (constant 2010 US$) in 
2015, increasing at an average rate of 4.9% from 2014. This growth rate was the lowest 
experienced by the country since 2010. In 2016, real GDP increased slightly faster at 
5.02%, reaching US$1,038 billion (constant 2010 US$). From 1990, GDP grew at an 
average rate of 4.7% per year to 2015. GDP per capita in 2015 was almost US$4,000 
(constant 2010 US$) while it was only US$1,700 in 1990 (constant 2010 US$).
Indonesia is richly endowed with natural resources. The country's vast oil and gas reserves 
have made Indonesia a significant player in the international oil and gas industry. As of 
January 2017, its crude oil proven reserves were 3.17 billion barrels while natural gas 
proven reserves were 100.4 trillion cubic feet (TCF) or 2.8 trillion cubic metres (TCM) 
(Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, 2017). Indonesia is also a coal exporter with 
proven coal reserves of around 29.9 billion tons. In addition to fossil energy resources, 
Indonesia’s non-fossil energy resources include hydro, geothermal, biomass, and other 
CHAPTER 7


129
renewables such as solar and wind. For hydro, the estimated potential is around 75 
gigawatts (GW) while the estimated geothermal potential is more than 28 GW. In total, 
renewable energy potential in Indonesia is around 441.7 GW. Out of this, only 2%, or 
around 9 GW, has been utilised.
2.   Modelling Assumptions
Indonesia’s real GDP growth was 5.03% in 2016 and 5.07% in 2017 (Indrawati, 2018). The 
expected real GDP growth for 2018 is 5.4%. For 2019, the proposed state budget (APBN) 
2019 targeted the real GDP growth in the range of 5.4%–5.8%. The National Energy Policy 
(KEN) of 2014 assumed an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 8% from 2015 to 2025 
and will slow down to 7.25% in 2035 and 6.5% in 2050. 
Since the current real GDP growth is slower than that assumed in KEN, this study 
assumes that real GDP would grow at an AAGR of 5.8% in 2015–2040. This was based 
on the economic projections of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. For 
population, the growth assumption will be 0.8% per year over 2015–2040 period, based 
on the revised population projection of the Central Bureau of Statistics (2013). 
The scenarios are like the previous EOSP reports (since 2013); i.e. Business-As-Usual 
(BAU) scenario and the five Alternative Policy Scenarios (APSs). These APSs reflected 
the additional policy interventions likely to be implemented. These are energy efficiency 
and conservation (EEC) targets and action plans; efficiency improvement in power 
generation plants; more aggressive adoption of renewable energy; and introduction of 
nuclear energy, etc. For Indonesia, the five APSs considered are as follows:
1) More efficient final energy consumption (APS1), with specific energy saving targets by 
sector (Figure 7.1). In addition, Article 9 of the 2014 KEN states that energy elasticity 
will be less than 1 by 2025 and that final energy intensity will also be decreasing at 1% 
per year. These goals and targets were also the energy saving targets for this year’s 
study.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
2) More efficient thermal power generation (APS2), where higher improvement of 
existing coal-fired power plants and the introduction of cleaner coal technologies, 
were considered in the analysis. Also considered for this scenario are most efficient 
natural gas combined–cycle technologies. 
3) Higher contribution of new and renewable energy (NRE) and biofuels (APS3) – In 
this case, higher penetration of NRE for electricity generation and utilisation of liquid 
biofuels in the transport sector is assumed  compared to the BAU scenario. 
4) Introduction or higher utilisation of nuclear energy (APS4), an assumption that it will 
be in operation after 2020. This is in line with the current plan where two units will be 
constructed after 2020, each with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts (MW).  
5) The combination of APS1 to APS4 constitutes the assumptions of the APS (APS5).
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As Usual (BAU) Scenario
3.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Indonesia’s total final energy consumption (TFEC) increased at an average annual rate of 
2.9% between 1990 and 2015, increasing from 80 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) 
to 163 Mtoe. Given the assumed economic and population growth, the growth in the 
TFEC will continue but at a faster rate of 4.4% per year in 2015–2040 in the BAU scenario 
(Figure 7.2).
-
2015
2040
Figure 7.1: Energy Efficiency and Conservation  Assumptions  
Source: Author’s assumptions.
0.80
0.80
0.70
0.90
0.90
0.90
Power
Others
Commercial
Residential
Transport
Industrial
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20


131
Indonesia Country Report
This growth stems from the rapid increase of the energy consumed in the transport and 
industry sectors. The transport sector is still heavily dependent on oil. In the past, the final 
energy consumption of the transport sector grew at an average rate of 5.8% per year over 
1990–2015. This growth is expected to continue up to 2040 for the BAU scenario at a 
faster rate of 6.1% per year.
Final energy consumption in the industry sector grew at a slower rate than the transport 
sector in 1990–2015 (3.4% per year). It will still grow slower than the transport sector for 
the period 2015–2040 at an average rate of 5.3% per year.
Final energy consumption of the ‘others’ sector (mainly consisting of residential and 
commercial) grew at an average rate of 1.9% per year in 1990–2015. The final energy 
consumption of this sector is projected to experience a similar growth rate for the period 
2015–2040.
The ‘others’ sector had the highest share in the TFEC in 1990–2015 because of the high 
consumption of biomass mainly in the residential sector. The share, however, decreased 
from around 55% in 1990 to 43% in 2015. This is mainly due to the rapid increase of the 
fuel consumption of the transport sector. The share will continue to decline in the future 
as household appliances become more efficient and households use more alternatives, 
such as natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas or LPG. The sector’s share in the TFEC 
will decrease to 23% in 2040.
100
200
300
400
500
600
-
Mtoe
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Figure 7.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector (1990–2040)
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040


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The share of the transport sector in the TFEC had increased from around 13% in 1990 to 
27% in 2015. This share will continue to increase, reaching 41% in 2040. The combined 
share of oil and alternative fuels for transport will contribute more to the increase of the 
transport’s share in the TFEC.
The industry sector’s share in the TFEC was 23% in 1990–2015. This share is expected to 
increase to 32% by 2040 in line with the growth in industrial activities.
By fuel type, electricity experienced the fastest growth in 1990–2015, at an average 
rate of 8.1% per year. This rapid growth of electricity demand was due to the significant 
increase in the consumption of the industry and residential sectors, from 2.4 Mtoe in 
1990 to 17.2 Mtoe in 2015. Coal is also increasing significantly over the same period as 
industry expands, particularly the cement industries. Total coal demand increased from 
2 Mtoe in 1990 to almost 10 Mtoe in 2015, growing at an average rate of 6.2% per year. 
As for natural gas and oil, the average annual growth of these fuels in 1990–2015 was 
5.7% and 2.9%, respectively. Demand for other fuels (mostly biomass for households) 
increased by 13.5 Mtoe, at an average rate of 1.1% per year.
In the future, the demand for all fuels will continue to increase. For coal, demand will 
increase the fastest at an average rate of 6.4% per year to 45.6 Mtoe in 2040. Electricity 
is also expected to grow but at a slower rate than in the past. The AAGR for electricity 
demand would be 6.2% per year over the 2015–2040 period.
Natural gas and oil demand will grow at an average rate of 4.0% per year and 5.6% per year, 
respectively, between 2015 and 2040. Demand for other fuels will increase the slowest 
over the same period, at an average growth rate of 0.9% per year. This is mainly due to the 
decrease in the growth rate of biomass consumption of the residential sector.


133
100
200
300
400
500
600
-
Mtoe
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Electricity
Oil
Heat
Natural gas
Others
Coal
Electricity
Oil
Heat
Natural gas
Others
Figure 7.3: Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Oil will still play a major role in the country’s final energy consumption although more 
alternative fuels will be consumed by the end-use sectors. The share of oil is expected to 
be around 46% in 2040, increasing from 34.5% in 2015. The remaining share will be that 
of coal (9.6%), natural gas (13.5%), electricity (16.3%), and others (14.6%). 
3.1.2. 
 Primary Energy Supply
Total primary energy supply (TPES) in Indonesia grew faster than the final energy 
consumption at about 3.4% per year, from 98.6 Mtoe in 1990 to 229.5 Mtoe in 2015. 
Amongst the major energy sources, the fastest-growing fuels 1990–2015 were coal and 
geothermal energy. Coal supply grew at an average annual rate of 10.8% while geothermal 
energy grew at 9.2% a year. Gas supply increased at a slower rate of 3.8% per year while oil 
grew slightly slower at 2.9% per year.
In the BAU scenario, Indonesia’s TPES is projected to increase at an average annual rate 
of 4.4%, reaching 671.4 Mtoe in 2040. Coal is projected to continue growing but at a 
slower rate of 6.4% per year. Geothermal energy is also expected to increase over the 
same period. The new price structure for generating electricity from renewable energy will 
stimulate the development of geothermal energy, amongst others. The projected growth 
rate of geothermal energy until 2040 is 2.6% per year. 
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Hydro, including mini and small hydro, will also increase at the same rate of geothermal in 
2015–2040. Consideration is being given to building more run-of-river-type hydro rather 
than reservoir type. 
Oil is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 5.1% in 2015–2040. At the same 
time, natural gas supply will also increase but slower than oil at an average rate of 4.2% per 
year. 
No uptake of nuclear energy is assumed in the BAU scenario. Thus, renewable energy 
will have a significant role in the future primary energy supply mix as the uptake of cleaner 
alternatives to oil increases. Other renewable energy resources include solar, wind, 
biofuels, and biomass.
Oil constituted the largest fossil fuel share in the TPES, but the share had declined slightly 
from 33.8% in 1990 to 29.5% in 2015. The share of natural gas in the total mix slightly 
increased from 16% in 1990 to 17.5% in 2015. 
Since both coal and geothermal rapidly grew in 1990–2015, the shares of these energy 
sources in the TPES have increased significantly. Coal share in the TPES increased from 
around 4% to 20% while geothermal share increased from 2% to 7.5%. Hydro’s share remains 
the same at 0.5% over the same period. Since others, which include biomass, solar, wind, 
100
300
200
400
500
600
700
800
-
Mtoe
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Coal
Nuclear
Nuclear
Oil
Oil
Hydro
Hydro
Natural gas
Natural gas
Geothermal
Geothermal
Others
Others
Figure 7.4: Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040


135
ocean, biofuels, and electricity, grew slower than the other fuels, its share declined from 
44.1% in 1990 to 24.7% in 2015.
In the BAU scenario, oil’s share will still be dominant throughout the 2015–2040 period, 
and its share in the TPES will reach 35% in 2040. Natural gas share will decrease slightly to 
16.6% by the end of 2040, while coal share will increase to 32.5%.
Since the supply of hydro, geothermal, and ‘others’ is growing slower than fossil fuel 
sources, the shares will be declining over 2015–2040. Hydro’s share in the TPES will 
decrease to 0.3% by 2040 and geothermal share, to 4.9%. The share of ‘others’ will reach 
10.8% in 2040, from 24.7% in 2015
3.1.3. 
 Power generation
Power generation output increased at an average rate of 8.2% per year over the past 2 
decades, from around 33 TWh in 1990 to 233 TWh in 2015. The fastest growth occurred 
in the production of electricity from natural gas plants at 19.2% per year. This is due to the 
increase in gas turbine and combined cycle capacities as natural gas became increasingly 
available.
In the BAU scenario, to meet electricity demand, power generation is projected to 
increase at a slower rate of 5.9% per year reaching almost 969 TWh in 2040. By type of 
fuel, generation from ‘others’ will grow the fastest at an average rate of 10.9% per year. The 
main reason for this very rapid growth is that generation from these other sources was very 
small in 2015 but is expected to increase significantly as a result of the government’s policy 
of increasing the use of NRE sources, including solar PV, wind, biomass, etc., classified as 
‘others’.
Generation from geothermal and hydro is also growing, but much slower than ’others’, 
both at 2.6%.
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Power generation from natural gas will continue to increase but at a much slower rate of 
5.4% per year while coal-based power generation will be growing at an average annual rate 
of 6.8%. No nuclear plant is considered under the BAU scenario.
The share of coal will remain dominant in the total power generation of the country. Its 
share in total power generation was lower than oil in 1990 (30%). The share increased 
over time as more coal-fired power plants were constructed. In 2015, the share increased 
to almost 56%, higher than that of oil. This share is expected to continue to increase in the 
future, reaching around 70% in 2040.
Oil had the largest share in power generation in 1990 (47%). By 2015, the share of oil 
declined to around 8.4% as production from coal and natural gas plants increased rapidly. 
Natural gas share in 2015 reached 25.2% and declined to 22.7% by 2040 under the BAU 
scenario.
Hydro’s share in the total electricity production of the country was 17.5% in 1990. The 
share declined to 5.9% in 2015. Under the BAU scenario, hydro's share is expected to 
continue to decline and reach 2.7% in 2040.
The share of geothermal and other renewables constituted about 4.5% of the power 
generation in 2015. The share of these renewables declined to 2.7% by 2040 under the 
BAU scenario. 
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
-
TWh
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Nuclear
Oil
Hydro
Natural gas
Geothermal
Others
Coal
Nuclear
Oil
Hydro
Natural gas
Geothermal
Others
Figure 7.5: Power Generation by Fuel Type (TWh) (1990–2040)
TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040


137
The average thermal efficiency of fossil fuel–based power plants was around 32% in 2015. 
the BAU scenario assumes a slight improvement in the efficiency of  coal and natural gas 
power plants causing the thermal efficiency of fossil fuel plants to increase to almost 35% 
in 2040.
By fuel, the thermal efficiency of coal-fired power plants will increase from 30% in 2015 to 
34% in 2040 while natural gas is assumed to increase from 38% to 40%. Oil will remain less 
than 31% over the 2015–2040 period (Figure 7.6).
3.1.4. 
 Energy indicators
Indonesia’s primary energy intensity (TPES/GDP) had been increasing until 2000. Since 
then, the intensity declined and reached a level of 232 toe/million 2010 US$ in 2015. The 
final energy intensity had been declining and reached a level of 165 toe/million 2010 US$ 
in 2015. These indicate that energy producers and consumers have started to effectively 
use energy by implementing energy conservation measures and greater utilisation of 
energy-efficient technologies. 
In the BAU scenario, primary and final energy intensity is projected to decline at an average 
annual rate of 1.3% in 2015–2040. Primary energy intensity in 2040 will be around 166 
toe/million 2010 US$ while final energy intensity will be 118 toe/million 2010 US$. 
Figure 7.6: Thermal Efficiency, BAU (2015–2040)
Source: Author’s assumptions.
25
27
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
29
31
33
35
39
37
41
Percent
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
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Thus, the energy intensity ratio (primary and final) is expected to improve by almost 29% 
in 2040 compared to 2015.
Per capita energy consumption, measured as the ratio of TPES to the total population, had 
been increasing since 1990, from 0.5 to 0.9 in 2015. This level of energy consumption 
per capita indicates improving energy access of society, which can be reflected by the 
electrification ratio. In 2015, the electrification ratio was around 88.5% and reached 94.8% 
in 2017. The government expected all households to have access to electricity by 2020. 
Under the BAU scenario, energy consumption per capita will continue to increase and will 
reach 2.1 toe per person in 2040. This result is in accordance with the existing national 
energy policy (2014), which targeted a level of 1.4 toe in 2025 and 3.2 toe in 2050.
In  the BAU scenario, the elasticity of final energy consumption is expected to continue 
declining and will reach 0.8 in 2040. Elasticity lesser than 1 indicates that growth in final 
energy consumption will be slower than growth in GDP over the period 2015–2040. 
3.2. Energy Savings and CO2 Reduction Potential 
The assumptions in the APS were analysed separately to determine the individual impact 
of each assumption in APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and the combination of all these 
assumptions, APS5. Figure 7.8 shows the changes in the TPES for all the scenarios.
Figure 7.7: Energy Intensity and Other Energy Indicators (1990=100)
    Source: Author’s calculations.
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
600
500
400
300
200
100
700
%
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 per Intensity
CO2 per Capita


139
Figure 7.8: Comparison of Scenarios of Total Primary Energy Supply by 2040
 Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
-
Mtoe
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
Figure 7.8 illustrates that APS1 and APS5 have the largest reduction in primary energy 
supply in 2040 due to the energy efficiency assumptions on the demand side. Energy 
efficiency assumptions in APS1 could reduce the TPES in the BAU scenario by as much as 
118 Mtoe or 17.6%. For APS5, the reduction will amount to 104 Mtoe or 15.5%.
APS2, which assumes higher efficiency in thermal electricity generation, will also reduce 
the TPES in 2040 by 42 Mtoe or 6.2% compared to the BAU scenario. Since APS2 does 
not assume efficiency measures for the final sector, it will have a lower impact than APS1. 
Therefore, the reduction is due mainly to the use of more efficient power generation while 
some conventional plants ceased operation after reaching their technical lifetime. 
For APS3, the TPES increased slightly as more renewable energy for power generation 
started operation and more biofuels were being consumed by the transport sector. The 
difference between APS3 and the BAU scenario for 2040 is only around 11.5 Mtoe or 
1.7%. 
The introduction of nuclear power generation after 2020 (APS4) will also increase the 
total primary energy mix of 2040 by only 1.4 Mtoe or 0.2% compared to the BAU scenario. 
The result indicates that the introduction of nuclear plants will reduce the consumption 
of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) in generating power. However, since the efficiency of nuclear 
plants is slightly lower than the average thermal efficiency of fossil fuel plants, then there 
can be no savings relative to the BAU scenario results.
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Figure 7.9 shows the total electricity generation in 2040 in all scenarios. In APS1, due to 
the lower electricity demand, the shares of fossil-fired electricity generation will be lower 
than in  the BAU scenario, 93%  compared to 95%. In APS2, the share is the same as that of 
the BAU scenario. In APS3, due to the assumption of more renewable energy, the shares 
of fossil fuel–fired generation could be reduced by 5% while in APS4, nuclear energy could 
reduce fossil fuel share by almost 2%. In APS5, where all scenarios were combined, the 
reduction in the shares of fossil energy–based generation will be significant; i.e. almost 
22% lower than the BAU scenario.
In terms of CO2 emissions reduction, energy efficiency assumptions in APS1 could reduce 
emissions by 22% in 2040  compared to the BAU scenario. In APS2, the installation of 
more efficient new power plants could reduce emissions by 9%. Higher contributions 
from renewable energy could reduce emissions by 6% while nuclear energy could reduce 
emissions by 1%. All these assumptions combined (APS5) could reduce BAU scenario 
CO2 emissions by 36% in 2040.
Figure 7.9: Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation by 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
-
Mtoe
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


141
Figure 7.10: Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions by 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons carbon.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
250
200
150
100
50
300
350
400
450
500
-
Mt-C
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
3.2.1. 
 Final energy consumption
In the combined APS (APS5), the TFEC is projected to increase at a slower rate than 
in  the BAU scenario, increasing at an average rate of 3.5% per year from 162 Mtoe in 
2015 to 388 Mtoe in 2040. Slower growth under the APS, relative to the BAU scenario, is 
projected across all sectors as a result of the government’s EEC programme, particularly in 
the transport sector. The growth rate of energy demand in the transport sector is projected 
to increase by 4.8% per year compared with 6.1% per year in the BAU scenario. Figure 7.11 
shows the TFEC by sector in 2015 and 2040 in both the BAU scenario and the APS.
Final energy consumption savings are estimated to be 27 Mtoe in the industry sector, 52 
Mtoe in the transport sector, and 9.3 Mtoe in the residential/commercial (‘others’) sector 
by 2040 under the APS, relative to the BAU scenario.
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3.2.2. 
 Primary energy supply
In the combined APS (APS5), the TPES is projected to increase at a slower rate, relative to 
the BAU scenario, 3.7% per year to 567 Mtoe in 2040. All energy sources are projected to 
experience positive AAGRs. However, some will be slower than in the BAU scenario. The 
lower TPES relative to the BAU scenario reflects EEC measures on the demand and supply 
sides, with the use of more efficient technology for power generation.
In terms of  fuel type, there are estimated savings of almost 111 Mtoe for coal, 50 Mtoe 
for oil, and 18 Mtoe for natural gas by 2040 under the APS, relative to the BAU scenario. 
In case of other resources (new and renewable resources, nuclear, and ‘others’), the TPES 
in the APS in 2040 is 159 Mtoe higher than that in the BAU scenario.
Figure 7.11: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
100
50
150
200
250
-
–18.1%
–26.9%
–8.4%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
Mtoe
0.0%


143
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
Mtoe
Figure 7.12: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
150
100
50
250
200
300
350
-
147.9%
–50.9%
–21.6%
–15.9%
3.2.3. 
 Projected energy savings
Total energy savings (the difference between the TPES in the BAU scenario and the APS) 
are 104 Mtoe in 2040. These could be achieved through the implementation of EEC and 
renewable energy targets and action plans of Indonesia, improved power plant efficiency, 
and introduction of nuclear energy. These are more than half of Indonesia’s TPES in 2015, 
which is around 230 Mtoe.
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
104.13 Mtoe, –15.5%
Figure 7.13: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
500
400
300
200
100
600
700
800
-
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3.2.4. 
 Energy intensities
The 2014 National Energy Policy emphasised the target of 1% per year reduction in final 
energy intensity up to 2025. Under the BAU scenario, the final energy intensity has 
been (and will be) on the decline at an average rate of 1.3 per year over 2015–2040. 
Implementation of the sectoral EEC targets under the APS will result in a faster declining 
rate for the final energy intensity, 2% per year over the projection period.
In terms of primary energy intensity, the annual reduction will be similar, 1.3% under the 
BAU scenario. In the APS, the annual reduction in primary energy intensity will also be 2% 
under extensive implementation of the sectoral EEC targets.
3.2.5. 
 CO2 emissions from energy consumption
CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to increase at an average annual 
rate of 5.6% from around 122 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 476 Mt-C in 
2040 in the BAU scenario. This is driven by the increasing use of carbon-intensive fuels, 
particularly the use of coal for power generation and industry, as well as oil in the transport 
sector.
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, toe = tons of oil equivalent.    
Source: Author’s calculations.
Final Energy Intensity
toe/million US$
toe/million US$
Primary Energy Intensity
Figure 7.14: Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
-
1990
2000 2015 2020 2025 2030
2035 2040
250
200
150
100
50
300
BAU
APS
-
1990
2000 2015 2020 2025 2030
2035 2040
300
200
250
150
100
50
350
400
BAU
APS


145
Figure 7.15: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS (2015–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
300
200
100
400
500
-
Million Tons of Oil Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
171.32 Mtoe, –36%
In the combined APS (APS5), the CO2 emissions in 2015–2040 are expected to be 36% 
lower than in the BAU scenario. The inclusion of more energy conservation measures, 
higher efficiency, elevated renewable targets, and the inclusion of nuclear energy after 
2020 would contribute to the reduced emissions. The government has committed 
to reduce CO2 emissions in 2030 by 29% without international assistance, and 41% 
with international assistance. This study’s result, which is 36% reduction, is above the 
committed target of 29%. However, to achieve the committed CO2 reduction target of 
41%, the combined target and action plan specified under APS5 must be more aggressive. 
3.2.6. 
 Review of Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contributions and APS 
 
 
 results
Regarding climate change, Indonesia ratified the Paris Agreement through Law Number 
16, year of 2016, which was submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on 
Climate Change on 6 November 2016. This is a commitment amongst countries across 
the globe to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The commitment in Indonesia’s 
NDC was to unconditionally reduce 29% of GHG emissions by 2030, and conditionally 
reduce up to 41% through international support. The percentage value is the sectors' 
reduction compared to the total BAU value of 2030. Table 7.1 shows the GHG emissions 
reduction target under the NDC. The CM1 is the countermeasure under the unconditional 
mitigation scenario, and CM2 is the countermeasure under the conditional mitigation 
scenario.
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Based on the NDC, the energy sector is projected to emit GHG almost four times the 
2010 level by 2030 if no countermeasures are taken (CM1). The sources of emissions 
are fuel combustion and fugitive emissions from fuel production. The industry and power 
generation will be the major emitters of GHG emissions in 2030. These sectors are the 
major consumers of coal in the country. 
Based on the NDC emissions reduction target, the estimated GHG emissions reduction 
from energy (fuel combustion and including fugitive) will be 314 Mt-CO2e under the CM1 
condition (unconditional) and 398 Mt-CO2e under the CM2 condition (conditional). 
This will be around 19% reduction and 23% reduction, respectively, from the BAU scenario 
emissions of the sector.
The CO2 emissions in the current outlook will also increase almost four times over the 
planning period, from around 122 Mt-C (447 Mt-CO2) in 2015 to 476 Mt-C (1,745 
Mt-CO2) in 2040 under the BAU scenario. Although slightly higher, the trend is like the 
NDC projection for 2010 to 2030. The CO2 emissions under the APS for 2040 will be 
1,117 Mt-CO2, which is 12% lower than the projected level for the CM2 in the NDC. 
Compared to  BAU, the APS will reduce the CO2 emission by 628 Mt-CO2, or 36% (Table 
7.2). By implementing the efforts assumed under the APS (which is a combination of 
APS1, APS2, APS3, and APS4), the reduction in CO2 emissions will be higher than the 
NDC target. These are promoting energy efficiency efforts in all final sectors, improving 
thermal efficiency of fossil power plants, increasing renewable shares in the transport and 
power sectors, and installing two units of 1,100 MW nuclear plants by 2040.
Table 7.1: NDC Emissions Reduction Targets for GHG
No
Sector
GHG
Emissions Level
2010*
GHG Emissions Level 
2030, (MtCO2e)
GHG Emissions Reduction
MtCO2e
(MtCO2e)
% of Total BAU
BAU
CM1
CM2
CM1
CM2
CM1
CM2
1
Energy*
453.2
1,669
1,355
1,271
314
398
11.0%
13.9%
2
Waste
88.0
296
285
270
11
26
0.4%
0.9%
3
IPPU
36.0
70
67
66
3
3
0.1%
0.1%
4
Agriculture
110.5
120
110
116
9
4
0.3%
0.1%
5
Forestry**
647.0
714
217
64
497
650
17.2%
23.0%
TOTAL
1,334.0
2,869
2,034
1,787
834
1,081
29.0%
38.0%
BAU = Business-As-Usual, CM = countermeasure, GHG = greenhouse gases, IPPU = Industrial Processes and Product Use,   
 
MtCO2e = metric tons of equivalent carbon dioxide, NDC = Nationally Determined Contributions.
*Including fugitive,  ** including peat fire
Source: Indonesia NDC and the Way Forward, Webinar NDC on 20 July 2017.


147
Table 7.2: CO2 Emissions in 2030 and 2040 for BAU and APS
Fuel Type
GHG Emissions Level (Mt-CO2)
GHG Emissions Reduction
2015
2030
BAU
2030
APS
2040
BAU
2040
APS
2030 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Mt-
CO2)
2040 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Mt-
CO2)
2030 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(%)
2040 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(%)
Coal
181 
553 
261 
850 
418 
292
432 
52.9
50.9
Gas
87 
137 
119 
237
194 
18
43
13.3
18.1
Oil
179
540
411
658 
505
129
153
23.9
23.2
TOTAL
447
1,230
790
1,745
1,117
440 
628
35.8
36.0
BAU = Business-As-Usual, CM = countermeasure, GHG = greenhouse gases, Mt-CO2 = metric tons of carbon dioxide.
Source: Author’s calculation.
In 2030, the total CO2 emission under the BAU scenario is around 1,230 Mt-CO2, which 
is slightly below the CM2 level of the NDC. Thus, under the current outlook, the CO2 
emission level assumed for the CM2 will be achievable in 2030 under the BAU scenario 
assumption which are economic growth on average at 5.8% per year, average population 
growth of 0.8% per year, and implementation of the current energy policy which already 
assumed 1.3% reduction in energy intensity, and increased share of renewables including 
biofuels both in the transport and the power sectors as outlined in the biofuel road map.
The CO2 emissions reduction is highest in the case of coal compared to oil and gas. 
Oil is mostly consumed by the transport sector and will remain dominant, despite the 
introduction of other alternatives to oil. Coal is mainly used in the power sector. The 
increasing share of NRE as outlined in the current energy policy will reduce the coal 
share significantly. Figure 7.16 shows the share of the different sources of energy in total 
electricity generation in 2040. The figure shows that the growth of electricity production 
from coal-fired power plants in the APS is slower than that of the NRE- and gas-based 
power plants. In the case of NRE-based power plants, solar- and biomass-based power 
generation will grow fastest, considering it was very small in 2015.
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4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
Indonesia’s primary energy intensity (TPES/GDP) and final energy intensity (TFEC/GDP) 
have been declining as a result of greater utilisation of efficient energy technologies by both 
energy producers and consumers. Under the BAU scenario, the primary energy intensity 
declined at 1.3% per year over the projection period. Further adaptation of the sectoral 
target combined with the renewables’ portfolio, efficient power plant technology, and 
introduction of nuclear energy, will enable the country’s energy intensity to decline even 
more at 2.1% per year. The elasticity of primary energy supply is also projected to decrease 
to below 1.0 under the BAU scenario (0.8) and furthermore to 0.6 under the assumptions 
that the sectoral saving target and the other policy interventions under APS2, APS3, and 
APS4 are implemented fully as indicated in the combined APS (APS5) scenario.
The primary energy supply per capita is in the range of 1.7 to 2.2 toe/person for all 
scenarios by 2040. This is still below that of neighbouring countries like Thailand and 
Malaysia. The development of energy infrastructure, particularly in the remote and small 
island areas, will improve the electrification ratio and, hence, increase accessibility to 
energy.
Oil will still have the largest share in the total primary energy mix. The 2014 National 
Energy Policy sets the target of less than 25% in 2025, and of less than 20% in 2050. 
The transport sector, which is the main consumer of oil in the country, will be crucial 
Figure 7.16: Power Generation Mix, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, NRE = new and renewable energy.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60%
40%
20%
80%
100%
0%
2015
2040-BAU
2040-APS
10.40%
5.38%
26.87%
26.59%
3.12%
43.42%
22.71%
1.59%
70.33%
25.24%
8.24%
55.93%
NRE
Oil
Coal
Gas


149
for achieving these energy-saving targets. Government should further encourage the 
transport sector programme by improving the public transport system and promoting the 
use of alternative fuels and more efficient vehicles.
The current analysis which assumed increased use of alternative fuels and more efficient 
vehicles in the transport sector and efficient boilers in the industries resulted in  oil 
consumption savings between the BAU scenario and the APS of as high as 23% in 2040. 
The combined APSs (APS5) assumed implementation of programmes to achieve the 
sectoral energy-saving targets such as
• 
Promoting industrial energy efficiency through mandatory energy management for 
industries consuming more than 6,000 toe as mandated by Government Regulation 
no. 70/2009, through a system optimisation approach, and by adapting the 
ISO50001 as the reference for the national competent standard on energy managers. 
• 
Saving 10% of electricity consumption through national campaigns and through 
regulations in the case of government buildings.
• 
Implementing ‘Green Building’ in existing and new buildings by formulating stricter 
legislation to improve the environment quality of buildings , and encouraging green 
buildings by adopting the standards in Regulation No. 02/PRT/M/2015 on Green 
Building issued by the Minister of Public Works and Public Housing. Both the governor 
of DKI Jakarta and the mayor of Bandung had already issued regulations on green 
buildings, Regulation No. 38/2012 and Regulation no. 1023/2016, respectively.
• 
Promoting the labelling and performance standards on electrical appliances in the 
residential sector through regulations that mandate energy efficiency labelling and 
minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for appliances. Regulations are 
in place for compact fluorescent lamps or CFL and for air conditioning. MEPS and 
labelling for refrigerators, rice cookers, washing machines, water pumps, and LED 
lights will soon be finalised.
• 
Formulating funding mechanisms (private, public, or a combination of both) to 
promote efficient technologies and equipment. The main issue is the lack of financial 
support from commercial banks and other financial institutions. Provision of policies 
that will increase investment amounts and reduce strict collateral requirements of 
banks and other financial institutions is currently ongoing. In addition, policies and 
regulations to facilitate and support the establishment of energy-saving companies 
will also support funding for EEC projects. 
Pursuing EEC programmes is one measure of reducing CO2 emissions to achieve the 
committed target in the NDC of 29% (without international support) and 41% (with 
international support). Increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the supply 
mix, increased thermal efficiency of fossil fuel plants, and the introduction of nuclear 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
energy, as implied in the APS, would further reduce CO2 emissions. The assumptions in 
the APS will slow down CO2 emissions compared to the BAU scenario. The reduction 
level is more than that targeted in the NDC for the energy sector; i.e. more than 440 Mt-
CO2 in 2030 compared to 392 Mt-CO2 under CM2 of the NDC. Most of the reductions 
will come from reducing the use of coal, particularly in the power sector, and replacing it 
with renewable energy such as solar, hydro, and geothermal.
Both the BAU scenario and the combined APS (APS5) projected that renewable energy 
will play a major role in the country’s energy mix. The government has implemented 
programmes and issued regulations to accelerate the development of renewable energy 
in Indonesia. The recent Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) Regulation 
No. 50 Year 2017 provide more opportunities for the private sector to enhance the 
development of hydro, geothermal, PV, wind, municipal waste, biomass (agriculture 
estates), biogas, and ocean energy for on-grid electricity. MEMR Regulation no. 38 of 
2016 provides opportunities for the private sector and local state-owned companies to 
develop small-scale power supply (off-grid/mini-grid) from renewable energy (mini/
micro hydro, PV, etc.) to accelerate electrification in undeveloped rural, remote, border, 
and populated small island areas.
Through the Biodiesel Mandatory Roadmap (MEMR Regulation No. 12 of 2015), the 
government promotes biofuel use for non-electricity purposes, such as in the transport 
sector, as alternative for diesel fuel. Indonesia started Biodiesel Blending in 2008 with 
B2.5 then gradually increased to B5, B10, B15, and reached B20 in 2016. This mandate 
opens  opportunities for the private sector to produce cleaner biofuel.
Further measures still need to be undertaken to attract increased private sector 
involvement. Examples are improving the transparency and awareness of government 
support mechanisms, enhancing financial institutions to participate in renewable energy 
projects, improving the mechanism for providing incentives to promote NRE sources, 
further collaborating with developed countries to promote low-carbon technologies, etc.


151
References
Bank Indonesia (n.d.), ‘Indonesian Financial Statistics (SEKI), Real Sector, Table 7_2 
on Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin at 2010 Constant Prices.’  http://www.
bi.go.id/en/statistik/seki/terkini/riil/Contents/Default.aspx.(accessed 3 April 2017).
Central Bureau of Statistic (2013), ‘Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia (Indonesia Population 
Projection) 2010–2035.’  BPS in cooperation with the Indonesian Ministry of National 
Development Planning (Bappenas) and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). 
https://www.bps.go.id/index.php/publikasi/16 (accessed 6 January 2015).
Directorate General of Electricity (2016), ‘Statistik Ketenagalistrikan (Electricity Statistic) 
2015.’ https://www.djk.esdm.go.id/index.php/statistik-ketenagalistrikan. (accessed 5 
May 2017).
Hutapea, M. (2018), ‘The Experiences of Renewable Energy Development in Indonesia,’ 
Presentation material at the 1st Working Meeting of the Basic Energy Plan for Cambodia, 
Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 4–6 May 2018 (unpublished). 
Indrawati, S.M. (2018), ‘Indonesia Outlook. Striking the Right Balance Between Reform 
and Growth,’ Paper presented at the Mandiri Investor Forum, Hotel Fairmont Senayan, 
Jakarta, Indonesia, 7 February 2018. http://perbanas.org/file/CP180208007_file2018-
02-08_11-10-10.pdf. (accessed 22 June 2016). 
Masripatin, N. (2017), 'Indonesia NDC and the Way Forward,' Webinar NDC on 20 July 
2017. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/09_indonesia_webinar_ndc_20jul2017.
pdf (accessed 7 September 2017).
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (2017), ‘Handbook of Energy and Economic 
Statistics of Indonesia 2017.’ http://www.esdm.go.id/publikasi/statistik/handbook.
html (accessed 3 November 2017).
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Republic of Indonesia (2015), ‘Intended National Determined Contribution Republic of 
Indonesia’, 
http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/
Indonesia/ 1/INDC_REPUBLIC%20OF%20INDONESIA.pdf (accessed 7 September 
2017).
Republic of Indonesia (2014), ‘National Energy Policy 2014, Government Regulation No. 
79 year 2014.’ http://www.den.go.id/.(accessed 10 October 2017).
World Bank (2017), World Development Index (WDI) Update, September 2017. 
Washington, DC: World Bank.


153
JAPAN COUNTRY REPORT
1.   Background
Japan is a small island-nation in Eastern Asia. It consists of several thousand islands 
spanning a land area of approximately 377,960 square kilometres; most of its land area is 
mountainous and thickly forested. Until 2009, it was the world’s second-largest economy 
after the United States. In 2010, however, China surpassed Japan as the world’s second-
largest economy. Japan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 was about US$5,986 
billion (constant 2010 prices) (World Bank, 2017), and the population is currently about 
127 million.
1.1.  Energy Situation
Japan possesses limited indigenous energy resources and imports almost all its crude 
oil, coal, and natural gas requirements to sustain economic activity. In 2015, Japan’s 
primary energy supply was 429.8 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe). By energy type, oil 
represented the largest share at 43.0%, coal was second at 27.3%, followed by natural gas 
at 23.3%. Nuclear energy accounted for 0.6%. Others, such as hydro, geothermal, wind, 
and solar, represented the remainder of 5.8%. In 2015, net imports of energy accounted 
for about 99% of net primary energy supply. With limited indigenous energy sources, 
Japan imported almost 100% of oil and coal, and 98% of gas.
Japan is a large importer of coal: steam coal for power generation, pulp and paper, and 
cement production; and coking coal for steel production. Domestic demand for natural 
gas is met almost entirely by imports of liquefied natural gas. Natural gas is mainly used 
for electricity generation, followed by reticulated city gas and industrial fuels. In 2015, 
primary natural gas consumption was 100 Mtoe.
CHAPTER 8
Seiya Endo, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Japan’s final energy consumption experienced a slight growth of 0.1% per year from 287.0 
Mtoe in 1990 to 291.4 Mtoe in 2015. The residential/commercial (‘others’) sector had 
the highest growth rate during this period at 1.1% per year, followed by the transport 
sector with 0.2%. Consumption in the industry sector decreased at a rate of 1.1% per year 
on average over the period 1990–2015. Oil was the most-consumed product, having a 
share of 59.5% in 1990; it decreased to 52.3% in 2015. Electricity was the second most-
consumed product. 
Japan’s primary energy supply decreased at the rate of 0.1% per year from 438.6 Mtoe 
in 1990 to 429.8 Mtoe in 2015. Amongst the major energy sources, the fastest-growing 
fuels were natural gas and coal. Natural gas and coal consumption grew at an average 
annual rate of 3.3% and 1.7%, respectively, while nuclear energy declined at 11.5% in 
1990–2015 due to the Great East Japan earthquake. Oil consumption declined by 1.2% 
per year over the same period.
In Japan, 292 gigawatts (GW) of power generation capacity was installed and generated 
about 1,035 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2015. The generation by energy type 
is broken down as thermal (coal, natural gas, and oil) at 82.6%; nuclear, 0.9%; hydro, 8.2%; 
and geothermal, solar, and wind taking up the remaining 8.0%.
2. Modelling Assumptions
In this outlook, Japan’s real GDP is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 1% 
from 2015 to 2040. With the maturing of Japanese society and economy, the industry 
structure will become increasingly oriented towards the service industry. 
Population growth, on the other hand, will decline by about 0.4% per year from 2015 to 
2040 due to the decreasing birth rate. Japan’s population is projected to decrease from 
127 million in 2013 to 114 million in 2040. Figure 8.1 shows the assumptions of GDP and 
population growth in this study.
The development of Japan’s infrastructure and the expansion of its manufacturing industry 
will be saturated over the outlook period, and production of crude steel, cement, and 
ethylene will gradually decline. The number of automobiles will decline as the population 
shrinks.


155
Japan Country Report
%
Figure 8.1: Annual Growth Rate of GDP and Population
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Author’s assumption.
-0.5
-1.0
0.0
1990-2015
2015-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
0.5
1.0
1.5
GDP
Population
The New Strategic Energy Plan was approved by the Cabinet in April 2014. Based on 
this plan, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) approved the Long-term 
Energy Supply and Demand Outlook in July 2015. According to the Outlook, the share of 
nuclear power will be reduced from about 30% before the Great East Japan Earthquake to 
about 20%–22% in 2030. The share of renewable energy will be about 22% to 24% in 2030, 
which was 11% before the earthquake. Also, the share of baseload power (hydropower, 
coal-fired thermal power, nuclear power, etc.) will be approximately 56%.
Japan’s energy savings goal will be attained through the implementation of national 
energy efficiency programmes in all energy-consuming sectors. For the industry sector, 
energy savings are expected from improvements in manufacturing technologies. In the 
residential/commercial sector, the ‘Top Runner Programme’1 is projected to induce huge 
savings in addition to programmes on energy management systems, improvements in 
adiabatic efficiency, lighting systems, and heat pump systems. In the transport sector, 
efficiency improvements will be achieved from improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency, 
including increases in the stock of hybrid vehicles and structural changes in vehicles. Figure 
8.2 shows the assumed thermal efficiencies of thermal power plants in the Business-As-
Usual (BAU) scenario.
1 
This is Japan’s energy efficiency programme that aims to improve the energy efficiency of household and office 
appliances as well as vehicles. It sets the end-use energy performance of the best technology available in the market 
as the standard for each product category.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.   Simulation Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1. 
 Final Energy Consumption
With the projected relatively low economic growth and declining population, Japan’s final 
energy demand from 2015 to 2040 is projected to decline at an average rate of 0.4% per 
year in the BAU scenario. This is also driven by improved energy efficiency in the transport 
sector. The final energy consumption of the transport sector is projected to decrease at an 
annual average rate of 1.3% from 2015 to 2040. This is mainly due to improvements in the 
fuel economy of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, and the penetration 
of hybrid vehicles. Figure 8.3 shows the projected final energy consumption by sector 
from 1990 to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Figure 8.2: Thermal Efficiency, BAU
BAU= Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
30
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
35
40
45
50
55
%
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas


157
Figure 8.3: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Industry
Transportation
Others
Non-Energy
Mtoe
By fuel type, the consumption of coal and oil is projected to decrease at an average 
annual rate of 0.4% and 1.1%, respectively, between 2015 and 2040. On the other 
hand, consumption of natural gas and electricity is projected to increase at 0.6% and 
0.4% per year, respectively, over the period. Figure 8.4 shows the projected final energy 
consumption by source from 1990 to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Mtoe
Figure 8.4: Final Energy Consumption by Source, BAU
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
100
200
300
400
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.1.2. 
 Primary energy supply
Under the BAU scenario, Japan’s net primary energy supply is projected to decrease 
at an average annual rate of 0.1% per year from 429.8 Mtoe in 2015 to 414.3 Mtoe in 
2040 (Figure 8.5). This decrease is due mainly to the decreasing use of oil at an average 
annual growth rate (AAGR) of 1.5% between 2015 and 2040. On the other hand, nuclear 
and renewable energy including hydro will have increased AAGRs of 10.9% and 1.7%, 
respectively. The share of nuclear between 2015 and 2040 is projected to increase from 
0.6% to 7.9%. The self-sufficiency rate of primary energy will reach 26.3% in 2040, from 
7.0% in 2015, after the restart of nuclear power plants and penetration of renewable 
energy.
3.1.3.  Energy indicators
The energy consumption per capita towards 2040 will increase during the projection 
period. Income elasticity2 between 2015 and 2040 is expected to decline because the 
growth rate in energy consumption will be negative while the GDP growth rate is assumed 
to be positive.
Except for energy consumption per capita, all other energy indicators will exhibit decreases 
from the 2015 levels by 2040. CO2 intensity carbonisation rate (CO2 emissions per unit 
of energy consumption) will be about 46% lower than the 1990 levels and about 44% 
lower than the 2015 levels. Figure 8.6 shows the evolution of several kinds of indicators of 
energy consumption in Japan from 1990 to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Figure 8.5: Primary Energy Supply, BAU
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
Mtoe
2 
Growth rate of energy consumption divided by growth rate of GDP. 


159
3.2.  Energy Savings and CO2 Reduction Potential
3.2.1. 
 Final energy consumption
In the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), final energy consumption is projected to decline 
at the faster rate of 0.6% per year, from 291.4 Mtoe in 2015 to 248.8 Mtoe in 2040. 
In all final sectors (industry, transport, ‘others’), energy consumption will continue to 
decrease due to improved energy efficiency. The transport sector especially will achieve a 
remarkable savings of 1.3% per year due to the Top Runner Programme and more aggressive 
energy management systems. Japan will implement continuous efforts to improve energy 
efficiency, especially regarding the penetration of energy-efficient automobiles, such as 
hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. 
The industry and services sectors will also make efforts to improve their energy efficiency 
although it will be difficult for these sectors to do so drastically because energy efficiency 
and conservation actions in those sectors have already been done so far.  Figure 8.7 shows 
the final energy consumption by sector in the BAU scenario and the APS.
Figure 8.6: Indices of Energy and CO2 Intensities, Energy per 
Capita, and Carbonisation Rate, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 per Intensity
CO2 per Capita
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
120
100
80
60
40
20
140
1990=100
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 8.7: Final Energy Consumption by Sectors, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
80
60
40
20
100
120
0
–17.9%
–7.3%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–1.2%
3.2.2. 
 Primary energy supply
In the APS, the projected primary energy supply of Japan will decline at a rate of 0.3% per 
year to 394.1 Mtoe in 2040, 35.7 Mtoe lower than that in 2015. Coal, oil, and natural gas 
will have decreasing AAGRs of 1.1%, 1.8%, and 0.7%, respectively. Nuclear and biomass 
will partially substitute fossil fuels. Figure 8.8 shows the primary energy supply by source 
under the BAU scenario and the APS.
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
Mtoe
+42.8%
–18.3%
–10.9%
–16.0%
Figure 8.8: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
100
50
150
200
0


161
3.2.3. 
 Projected energy savings
Energy savings that could be derived from action plans of Japan amount to 20.15 Mtoe, 
the difference between the primary energy demand of the BAU scenario and the APS 
(Figure 8.9). This is equivalent to 4.9% reduction of Japan’s consumption under the BAU 
scenario in 2040. 
Estimated savings in final energy consumption in the residential/commercial sector will 
amount to 7.11 Mtoe and 9.25 Mtoe in the transport sector in 2040 in the APS. The 
projected decreases in the consumption of the transport sector in 2015–2040 are 25.3 
Mtoe in the BAU scenario and 42.6 Mtoe in the APS. This is attributable to the increase 
of more efficient vehicles.
3.2.4. 
 CO2 emissions from energy consumption
Under the BAU scenario, CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to 
decrease at an average annual rate of 0.7% from 312.9 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 
2015 to 219.2 Mt-C in 2040 (Figure 8.10). Under the APS, CO2 emissions are projected 
to decline at average annual rate of 1.4% between 2015 and 2040.
Figure 8.9: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
420.0
410.0
400.0
390.0
380.0
430.0
440.0
450.0
370.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
20.15 Mtoe,-4.9%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
Figure 8.10: CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion, BAU and APS
420.0
410.0
400.0
390.0
380.0
430.0
440.0
370.0
44.11 Mt-C,-16.7%
4. 
  Japan’s Intended Nationally Determined 
   Contributions
Japan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions towards reduced greenhouse 
gas emissions after 2020 is 26.6% by fiscal year (FY) 2030, compared to that of FY2013 
(25.4% reduction compared to FY2005, approximately 1.042 billion tons of carbon 
dioxide equivalent (t-CO2e). That target is consistent with METI’s Long-term Energy 
Supply and Demand Outlook of Japan’s quantitative policy target for energy mix in 2030. 
Japan is expected to achieve this target in the APS.
5.   Implications and Policy Recommendations
Japan’s primary energy intensity has been declining since 1980, and it is the lowest 
worldwide. This could be due to the enormous improvements in energy efficiencies in 
both supply- and demand-side technologies that have been developed and implemented 
in the country. The fact that Japan imports most of its energy requirements is another 
reason the country is very aggressive in improving energy efficiency. 
The Cabinet approved the Strategic Energy Plan in April 2014 (Government of Japan, 
2014). The plan was the basis for METI’s approval in July 2015 of the Long-term Energy 
Supply and Demand Outlook (METI, 2015), which presents the ideal structure of energy 
supply and demand. This can be realised if appropriate measures are taken based on the 


163
fundamental direction of energy policies. Japan’s objectives are safety, energy security, 
economic efficiency, and environment, which are the basic concepts of the policies. 
CO2 emissions in 2040 are projected to be much lower than those of the 1990 level in the 
APS, based on METI’s Outlook, and even in the BAU scenario. However, to achieve the 
26% reduction target for 2030, Japan should effectively implement its policies on low-
carbon technology, including energy efficiency and zero emissions energy.
For energy efficiency, the APS requires a 1% improvement per year for companies that 
consume large amounts of energy, and a target of 50% share in sales for hybrid vehicles. 
Renewable and nuclear energy play a key role in decarbonising power generation. 
To achieve intensive renewable energy penetration, like in the APS, it is necessary to 
significantly reduce the capital cost, invest in grids to cope with fluctuations of power 
from photovoltaic and wind, and implement effective grid rules. As for nuclear energy, 
mature safety measures and sufficient communication with local communities for restart 
are required.
In addition, as the leader in energy efficiency, Japan’s government and companies should 
share best practices of policies, services, and products with other countries. By doing this, 
Japan can contribute to reducing world energy consumption. This is beneficial to Japan as 
well since such activity helps with the global expansion of its market. 
References
Government of Japan (2014), Strategic Energy Plan. Tokyo: Government of Japan.
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2017), World Energy Balances. Paris: IEA.
Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry Japan (METI) (2015), Long-term Energy Supply 
and Demand Outlook. Tokyo: METI.
World Bank (2017), World Develop Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank.
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REPUBLIC OF KOREA COUNTRY 
REPORT
1.   Background
The Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea) is in the southern half of the Korean Peninsula 
and shares a 238-kilometre border with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 
(North Korea). It occupies 100,188 square kilometres and includes about 3,000 mostly 
small, uninhabited islands. Korea is a mountainous country with lowlands accounting for 
only 30% of the total land area. The climate is temperate, with heavy rainfall in summer. As 
of 2015, Korea had a population of 51.069 million, over 90% of whom live in urban areas. 
Korea has recorded tremendous economic growth over the past half century, overcoming 
the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and the global economic crisis in 2008. However, due to 
the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, growth has slowed down. The Korean economy 
is dominated by manufacturing, particularly electronic products, passenger vehicles, and 
petrochemicals.
Korea has no domestic oil resources and has produced only a small amount of anthracite 
coal, but imports most of its coal, which is bituminous coal. Consequently, Korea must 
import nearly all of its needed energy and is the fifth-largest oil importer and the second-
largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world. The total primary consumption 
in 2015 was 272.7 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), increasing by 4.4% a year since 
1990. Although primary energy consumption is dominated by oil and coal, nuclear power 
and LNG also supply a significant share of the country’s primary energy. The strongest 
growth occurred in natural gas (11.3% per year), followed by renewable energy (9.1% per 
year), coal (4.7% per year), and nuclear (4.7% per year). Oil has increased at a relatively 
slower 2.9% per year.
The total final energy consumption in 2015 was 174.2 Mtoe, increasing at an average 
annual rate of 4% from that in 1990. The industry sector accounted for 28.2% of final 
energy consumption in 2015, followed by non-energy (27.2%) and transport (19.2%). 
CHAPTER 9
Kyung-Jin Boo, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea 


165
While consumption of coal and oil has gradually decreased, natural gas in the final energy 
consumption rapidly grew at a rate of 14.9% per year between 1990 and 2015.
In 2015, electric power generation in Korea amounted to 549.2 terawatt-hours (TWh), 
with coal and nuclear combined providing nearly three-fourths of the country’s electricity, 
followed by natural gas, sharing 22.4% of generation. Total electricity consumption has 
grown at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 6.8% between 1990 and 2015. When 
broken down by fuel, coal, natural gas, and nuclear grew by an average annual rate of 
10.9%, 10.7%, and 4.7%, respectively, between 1990 and 2015. Over the same period, 
oil and hydro, however, recorded negative annual growth rates of -1.6% and -4.3%, 
respectively. Meanwhile, other energy sources such as new and renewable energy (NRE) 
rapidly grew at an annual rate of 44.7%.
Since the 1990s, the Korean government has established five, Basic Plans for Rational 
Energy Use, which are being revised every 5 years and contain various policy tools and 
programmes developed and implemented under the auspices of the Ministry of Trade, 
Industry, and Energy. Several energy savings measures were announced to encourage 
the public to voluntarily conserve energy. As part of the measures, voluntary energy 
conservation campaigns were launched to reduce heating and fuel consumption. 
Furthermore, the government urged energy-intensive industries to enhance the energy 
efficiency of their products. In addition, the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy and 
the Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea formed a task force to examine 660 public and 
private organisations to measure their progress in implementing voluntary energy saving 
plans.
The current ‘Fifth Basic Plan for Rational Energy Use (2013–2017)’ encompasses various 
key policy tools and programmes to attain the country’s energy savings target. Amongst 
them are voluntary agreements, energy audits, energy service companies, appliance 
labelling and standards, fuel economy, and public transit and mode shifting. These policy 
tools have played and will continue to play important roles in energy savings.
2. Modelling Assumptions
Korea’s GDP grew at an average annual rate of 5% between 1990 and 2015. In this report, 
Korea’s GDP is assumed to grow at an AAGR of 2.4% from 2015 to 2040 as shown in figure 
9.1. Affected by the 2008–2009 global economic slowdown, the Korean economy has 
been a bit shaken. However, the economy is still in good shape and its economic growth 
is expected to recover to 2.9% per year from 2015 to 2020, slowing down to 2.2% per year 
between 2020 and 2040. 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Korea is expected to continue to rely heavily on coal and nuclear energy for power 
generation to meet the baseload. Gas-fired power generation is projected to increase 
from 2013 to 2040, while oil-fired generation is projected to decline. Generation from 
hydro sources is projected to remain relatively stable. Also projected is a strong growth 
in electricity generation from wind power and solar photovoltaics driven by renewable 
portfolio standards, which were launched in January 2012.
Korea’s energy-saving goals can be attained by implementing energy efficiency 
improvement programmes in all energy sectors. In the industry sector, energy savings are 
expected from the expansion of voluntary agreements, the highly efficient equipment 
programme, and the development of alternative energy and improvements in efficient 
technologies. The transport sector aims to save energy by enhancing the efficiency of the 
logistics system, expanding public transport, and improving the fuel economy of vehicles. 
In the residential/commercial (‘others’) sector, the minimum energy efficiency standards 
programme is projected to induce huge savings in addition to ‘e-Standby Korea 2010.’1 
Figure 9.1: Assumptions for GDP and Population (1990–2040)
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Author.
0
0
500
20
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
1,000
30
1,500
40
2,000
50
2, 500
60
Population
GDP
US$ billion 2010
million persons
1 
The Korea Energy Agency introduced the ‘E-Standby Korea’ programme, which urges the manufacturers to minimise 
standby power and select sleep mode during the standby. It is a voluntary agreement. 


167
Republic of Korea Country Report
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Final Energy Consumption
Korea’s final energy consumption grew 4.4% per year, from 64.9 Mtoe in 1990 to 174.2 
Mtoe in 2015.2 The non-energy sector had the highest growth rate during this period 
at 8.1% per year, followed by the industry sector with 4.0%. Energy consumption in the 
residential/commercial/public (‘others’) sector had grown at a relatively slow pace 
of 2.4% per year. Oil was the most consumed product, with a share of 67.3% in 1990, 
declining to 51.8% in 2015. The share of coal in the final energy consumption declined by 
11.3% between 1990 and 2015 whereas the energy share of electricity had doubled to be 
the second-largest consumed product.
Business-As-Usual Scenario
With an assumption of low economic and population growth, final energy consumption in 
Korea is projected to increase at a low average rate of 0.7% a year between 2015 and 2040 
under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario as shown in figure 9.2. This is largely due 
to the negative growth in energy consumption in the transport sector, which is projected 
to decrease at an AAGR of -0.01% between 2015 and 2040. The growth in final energy 
consumption is expected to be led by the ‘others’ and industry sectors up to 2020 at 1.4% 
and 1.2% per year, respectively, then be taken over by the non-energy sectors such as the 
residential/commercial, and public sectors at 1.0% thereafter up to 2040. Nevertheless, 
all sectors are expected to slow down at a rate less than 0.8%, or a negative average growth 
rate per year except for the ‘others’ sectors.
2 
Energy consumption is calculated based on the net calorific values as converted by The Institute of Energy 
Economics, Japan from original data submitted by the Republic of Korea.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Final energy consumption by energy type is expected to be patterned after energy 
consumption by sector as shown in figure 9.3. The AAGR shows -0.1% for coal, 0.3% for 
oil, 1.3% for natural gas, 1.2% for electricity, and 0.3% for heat over the 2015–2040 period. 
Coal and oil consumption is expected to peak around 2020, then gradually decrease 
thereafter, showing a negative growth rate. Heat energy consumption is anticipated to 
follow the same pattern as oil because of the expected decrease in population and the 
changing lifestyle oriented towards using more electricity for heating. The case of oil is 
more like due to the decreasing energy consumption in the transport sector caused by an 
increasing deployment of electrical vehicles. Other energy types, including NRE, show 
a growth rate of 1.8% a year, faster than natural gas, electricity, and heat. The use of 
renewable energy, in addition to natural gas, will increase as clean and green energy will 
considerably contribute to reduced CO2 emissions.
Figure 9.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
174
185
200
206
127
65
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Mtoe


169
Figure 9.3: Final Energy Consumption by Energy Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
174
185
200
206
127
65
Mtoe
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Heat
Others
Alternative Policy Scenarios 
This section discusses the five alternative scenarios developed based on the focus of 
policy options: (i) improved efficiency of final energy demand (APS1), (ii) more efficient 
thermal power generation (APS2), (iii) higher contribution of renewable energy to 
total supply (APS3), (iv) contribution of nuclear energy to total supply (APS4), and (v) 
combined effects of APS1 to APS4 (APS5). 
Figure 9.4 shows final energy demand by sector in each APS. Total final energy demand is 
to be reduced in the case of APS1 (improved efficiency) and APS5 (combined effects of 
APS1 to APS 4) at 192.6 Mtoe, 13.1 Mtoe or 5.2% lower than that in BAU. APS2, APS3, 
and APS4 show 205.7 Mtoe. The total amount and share of final energy demand by sector 
are the same as those of the BAU scenario. Accordingly, APS5 which is a combination of 
all APSs shows 192.6 Mtoe, 19.7 Mtoe or 9.5% lower than in the BAU scenario, the same 
as in APS1.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Final energy demand by energy type is shown in Figure 9.5. In APS1 (improved efficiency), 
oil accounts for 5.9 Mtoe of energy savings, the largest energy savings, followed by 
electricity (4.8 Mtoe) and natural gas (1.7 Mtoe). In terms of percentage, electricity 
shows the largest (8.3%), followed by oil and natural gas, both at 6.0%. APS2, APS3, and 
APS4 are identical in terms of energy demand by energy source, and APS1 and APS5 are 
identical in terms of total energy demand, share of energy demand by sector, and energy 
source.
In APS5, final energy consumption is projected to increase at an AAGR of 0.4%, from 
174.2 Mtoe in 2015 to 192.6 Mtoe in 2040. Energy demand in the transport sector is 
projected to decrease at an AAGR of -2.7% over the same period, whereas other sectors 
have increased energy consumption over the same period. The rate of growth is much 
slower across all sectors, except for the industry sector, compared to the BAU scenario 
(Figure 9.6). The non-energy sector shows an AAGR of 1.0%, followed by the ‘others’ 
sector at 0.4%, and the industry sector at 0.3%.
Figure 9.4: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
205.7
205.7
205.7
192.6
192.6
205.7
61.3
61.3
61.3
61.3
61.3
61.3
49.2
49.2
28.9
28.9
53.2
53.2
53.8
53.8
53.8
53.8
33.5
33.5
33.5
33.5
57.1
57.1
57.1
57.1
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Mtoe


171
Figure 9.5: Final Energy Consumption by Energy, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
53.0
53.0
4.4
4.4
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
57.8
2%
8.3%
6.0%
6.0%
4.4%
57.8
57.8
57.8
26.7
26.7
92.0
92.0
28.4
28.4
28.4
28.4
97.9
97.9
97.9
97.9
11.4
10.9
10.9
11.4
11.4
11.4
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
Electricity
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Heat
Others
Mtoe
Figure 9.6: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
40
30
20
10
60
70
0
–13.5%
–8.5%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–7%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.  Primary Energy Demand
The primary energy demand in Korea had increased at an average rate of 4.4%, from 92.9 
Mtoe in 1990 to 272.7 Mtoe in 2015. Amongst the major energy sources, natural gas grew 
the fastest at an average annual rate of 11.3%. The next was coal (4.7%), followed by oil 
(29%) and nuclear (4.7%) over the same period. Other energy sources, mainly renewable 
energy such as solar, wind, biomass, and ocean energy, have been rapidly growing at a 
rate of 9.1% over the same period. This indicates that the Korean government has been 
successfully implementing its ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ and, Energy New Industry’ 
policies initiated by previous administrations.
Business-As-Usual Scenario
In the BAU scenario, the primary energy demand in Korea is projected to increase at an 
average annual rate of 0.4%, from 272.7 Mtoe in 2015 to 303.5 Mtoe in 2040. Growth in 
all energy sources is projected to slow down. While the consumption of natural gas shows 
the fastest growth with a rate of 2.2% per year, coal and oil show much slower AAGRs of 
0.5% and 0.2%, respectively, over the period 2015–2040. The growth in natural gas will 
largely be at the expense of nuclear, with the share of nuclear declining from 15.7% in 
2015 to 6.2% in 2040.
Figure 9.7: Primary Energy Supply by Energy Type, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Geothermal
Others
93
188
273
287
304
304
Mtoe


173
Alternative Policy Scenario
Based on the projection and analysis in the final energy demand by sector and by energy 
source, primary energy demand is projected in figure 9.8 for all five scenarios. Unlike in final 
energy demand, each APS has a different amount and share by energy source depending 
on a specific policy focus of each APS. Except for APS4 (contribution of nuclear energy 
to total supply), APS1, APS2, and APS3 have primary energy demand less than the BAU 
scenario. Amongst those APSs, APS1 (improved efficiency of final energy demand) is the 
lowest, 281.8 Mtoe, 7.1% lower than that in the BAU scenario, APS3 (higher contribution 
of renewable energy to total supply) follows at 298.6 Mtoe; and APS2 (more efficient 
thermal power generation), at 299.4 Mtoe. In APS1, the largest reduction is in the demand 
for coal, 9.9%, followed by natural gas (8.9%), and oil (6.0%). Nuclear is to be the same as 
in the BAU scenario, but others (renewable energy) are to increase by 6.6%.
In APS5, which combines APS1 to APS4, primary energy demand is projected to increase 
at a lower rate of 0.1% per year, from 272.7 Mtoe in 2015 to 279.3 Mtoe in 2040. The 
consumption of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, will gradually decrease in 2015–2040 
whereas that of clean energy such as natural gas, nuclear, and others (NRE) will increase 
by 1.1%, 0.2%, and 4.4% per year, respectively, over the projection period (Figure 9.7). 
Aggressive implementation of energy efficiency and conservation measures on the 
demand side, along with a larger uptake of renewable energy on the supply side, will be 
the main contributors to reduced consumption of fossil fuels.
Figure 9.8: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0,0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
303.5
15.2
18.8
18.8
18.8
18.8
44.6
44.6
15.3
15.2
19.1
18.9
67.6
61.6
66.5
64.7
60.8
51.2
102.5
109.1
109.1
109.0
108.9
102.2
92.3
83.2
89.3
86.6
78.6
61.8
281.8
299.4
298.6
308.6
279.3
vs BAU
25.7%
137.2%
24.3%
33.0%
6.3%
Mtoe
15.2
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Projected Energy Savings
Major energy policy approaches to reduce energy demand in Korea are as follows: 
1. Shift of energy policy from a supply-oriented approach to a demand-oriented one. 
More than anything else, reform in energy pricing and energy taxation is a most 
pressing issue. In this context, market mechanisms should be introduced in energy 
pricing where rational energy use is induced by sharing information on the full cost of 
energy production and consumption. 
2. Transformation of industrial structure into a less energy-intensive one, currently under 
way, should be accelerated towards knowledge-based, service, and green industries, 
which consume less and clean energies. 
3. Application of energy efficiency standards and codes in product design and production 
processes as well as in designing and constructing a system such as factories, buildings, 
and plants. Under these policy directions, the Korean government should develop 
and implement an action plan that contains milestones and strategies with specific 
and cost-effective policy tools.
The energy savings that could be derived from the energy saving targets, action plans, 
and policy tools in Korea briefly mentioned in the previous paragraph is 24.19 Mtoe, the 
difference between primary energy demand in the BAU scenario and the APS in 2040 
(Figure 9.9). This is equivalent to only 2.4% increase compared to the primary energy 
consumption in 2015. Figure 9.10 shows the energy savings potential by energy source. 
Amongst energy sources, coal has the largest reduction in energy demand, -33.1%, 
followed by natural gas (-24.3%) and oil (-6.4%). In contrast, other energy sources, such 
as nuclear and renewable energy, will increase by 86.2% than in the BAU scenario, whose 
major contributor is renewable energy.


175
Figure 9.9: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
295
290
285
280
275
270
265
260
300
305
310
255
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
24.19 Mtoe, –8%
Figure 9.10: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60
40
20
100
80
120
0
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
Mtoe
+86.2%
–33.1%
–6.4%
–24.3%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.3.  CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy consumption are projected to increase at 
an AAGR of 0.4%, from 158.7 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 176.7 Mt-C in 
2040 based on the BAU scenario. Such a growth rate is slower than that in primary energy 
consumption. This indicates that Korea will be using less carbon-intensive fuels – such as 
nuclear, natural gas, and renewable energy – and employing more energy-efficient green 
technologies.
In the APS, CO2 emissions are projected to decline at an AAGR of -0.7% between 2015 
and 2040. The difference in CO2 emissions between the BAU scenario and the APS is 
49.31 Mt-C or -27.0% (Figure 9.11). To attain such an ambitious target, the government 
must develop and implement cost-effective and consensus-based action plans to save 
energy and reduce CO2 emissions. 
Figure 9.11: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, 
BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon. 
Source: Author’s calculation.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
160
180
200
0
Million Tons of Oil Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
–49.31Mt-C, –27,0%


177
3.4.  Energy and Carbon Intensity
As a result of energy savings, the energy intensity of GDP is projected to improve (Figure 
9.12). In the BAU scenario, energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/thousand 
2010 US$) is projected to be reduced from 0.197 down to 0.123, indicating a 37.7% 
improvement. In the APS, it was accelerated by 42.8%. Energy intensity in the APS is 8.2% 
below that in the BAU scenario. Carbon intensity is also projected to improve in both the 
BAU scenario and the APS mainly due to the reduction in primary energy consumption 
in terms of energy intensity. Improvement in carbon intensity, CO2 emissions per unit 
of GDP (t-C/thousand 2010 US$), is more salient than that in energy intensity. It is 
projected to be reduced from 0.113 down to 0.080 and 0.059 t-C/thousand 2010 US$ 
for the BAU scenario and APS, 36.0% and 52.8%, respectively. Carbon intensity in the 
APS is 26.3% below that in the BAU scenario.
Figure 9.12: Energy and Carbon Intensities (1990–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
0
1990
1990
2000
2000
2015
2015
2020
2020
2025
2025
2030
2030
2035
2035
2040
2040
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0.3
0.2
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
Toe/thousand US$ 2010
T-C/thousand US$ 2010
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
8.2%
26.3%
0.246
0.265
0.215
0.173
0.166
0.125
0.105
0.084
0.074
0.064
0.059
0.113
0.101
0.090 0.085
0.080
0.197
0.177
0.160
0.146
0.134
0.194
0.172
0.152
0.137
0.123
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
Without any domestic energy resources economically available, Korea has been importing 
97% of the energy needed for economic growth. Thus, Korea’s top policy agenda on energy 
is energy security, that is, how to maintain a stable energy supply to keep the economy 
going. However, on entering the 21st century, the Korean government shifted its energy 
policy into a sustainable, efficient, and energy-saving approach, which was to some extent 
reflected in the first (2009) and second (2014) National Energy Basic Plan. 
Korea’s total primary and final energy consumption in the 1990s had rapidly increased at a 
rate faster than that of GDP whose growth was driven by energy-intensive industries, such 
as the petrochemical, steel, and cement industries. Since 1997, the contribution of these 
industries to Korea’s GDP has gradually declined, resulting in reduced energy intensity. 
However, the shift to a less energy-intensive industrial structure takes time, indicating 
that energy-intensive industries will prevail in the short to medium term. However, Korea 
will and must transform its industrial structure into a less energy-intensive one in the 
longer term.
The Second National Energy Basic Plan3 released in 2014 sets the policy approach of 
completely shifting the industrial structure from a supply-oriented into a demand-oriented 
one. Its basic policy direction consists of six major agendas with demand-oriented energy 
policy as a priority. Five other key agendas are to build a distributed generation system, 
an improved sustainable energy policy, to strengthen energy security, an enhanced stable 
energy supply, and to implement an energy policy with people’s support.
As regards the priority of an energy policy shift to a demand-oriented approach, the target 
is to save 13% of the total primary energy consumption along with 15% of electric power 
consumption. Under this agenda, four policy tasks are proposed: (i) reform of energy-
related taxation, (ii) reform of energy pricing, (iii) information and communications 
technology–based demand management, and (iv) strengthen programmes by sector. 
The reform of energy-related taxation as well as energy pricing are intended to induce 
a rational use of electricity by coordinating relative prices between electricity and non-
electricity energy. Additionally, it was proposed that social costs such as nuclear safety, 
reinforcement of transmission lines, and a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 
should be reflected. 
3 
The Korean government worked on the Second National Energy Basic Plan in 2013, releasing its report in early 2014.


179
Another policy agenda includes an approach from the environmental side, namely, setting 
a target of for reduced GHG emissions in response to global climate change. The Korean 
government announced an ambitious, aggressive target to reduce its GHG emissions by 
37% from that of the BAU scenario (850.6 MtCO2e) by 2030 across all economic sectors. 
Out of this target of 37%, 25.7% will be met by domestic activities and the rest, 11.3%, will 
be attained by emissions trade in the international market. It is a proactive response to and 
a fulfilment of its international responsibility for the new climate regime established as a 
follow-up action to the Paris Agreement in December 2015.
Throughout the past 3 decades, the Korean government has been mostly concerned 
with energy security, energy efficiency, and environmental preservation. The energy 
security issue has been dealt with by promoting foreign resource development imports 
and renewable energy development. Energy efficiency improvement has been addressed 
through programmes supported by a series of the Five-Year Basic Plans of Rational Energy 
Use. Relevant offices of the Ministry of Environment have approached the environmental 
issue caused by the consumption of fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Now is the time for 
Korea to synergise those efforts exerted so far by the selection and concentration of 
policy tools and programmes through coordination amongst relevant ministries, as clearly 
specified in the Second National Energy Basic Plan.
In 2017, the new government led by President Moon Jae-In proposed reforms to the 
current energy policy, announcing a new energy policy direction, ‘Energy Transition’, 
which has completely shaken up the existing national energy policy. Energy Transition 
rests on two major energy policy agendas: (i) step-wise reduction of nuclear power plants 
and coal-fired plants (‘de-nuclearisation’ and ‘de-coalisation’ policies), and (ii) expansion 
of renewable energy with the share of renewable electricity raised to 20% by 2030 (RE 
3020). These policy agendas will be reflected in subsequent energy plans: the Eighth 
Electricity Demand and Supply Basic Plan (completed and announced) and the Third 
National Energy Master Plan (under way).
If successfully implemented, Energy Transition will result in a complete turnaround 
from traditional energy based on coal and nuclear power to a sustainable energy system 
based on renewable energy and gas-fired power generation. This change in energy mix, 
nevertheless, does not necessarily signify the end for the nuclear industry in Korea. Recent 
polling suggests that the public is marginally in favour of continued investment in nuclear 
power. In 2017, five nuclear reactor units were being constructed. Keeping nuclear power 
in the energy mix, along with a larger uptake of renewable energy, will give Korea more 
options to meet its Paris Agreement targets which were set by Nationally Determined 
Contributions (NDC).
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The impacts and implications of the reform in the energy mix remain to be seen. Such 
reform calls for a vast amount of investment in rebuilding infrastructure, hardware, 
and software, along with institutional arrangements. It also entails a change not only in 
the energy sector per se but also in the cultural, political, and social domains. Having 
successfully gone through several energy transitions in the past, the Korean government 
is highly confident to go ahead with the current policy goals of transforming into a less 
energy-intensive, greener economic structure and implementing major policy agendas and 
their corresponding policy tools and programmes. Such nationwide efforts and campaigns 
would eventually transform the Korean economy into a less energy-intensive and greener 
one in terms of energy savings and reduced CO2 emissions. Such an achievement will 
position Korea as one of the leading global nations in terms of low-carbon green growth.


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LAO PDR COUNTRY REPORT
Khamso Kouphokham, Ministry of Energy and Mines, Lao People’s 
Democratic Republic
1.   Background
1.1.  Socio-economic Situation
The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is in the middle of the Southeast Asian 
peninsula.  It is bounded by five countries: China in the north, Viet Nam in the east, 
Cambodia in the south, and Thailand and Myanmar in the west. The Lao PDR has a total 
area of 236,800 square kilometres (km2), about 70% of which is covered by mountains. In 
2015, the country had a population of 6,663,967, with an average population density of 
27 persons/km2. It comprises 18 provinces, with Vientiane as the capital.
Since the country shifted to an open-door economic policy in 1986, its economy has been 
progressing and expanding rapidly.  Gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 increased 
7.56% from the previous year (Lao Statistics Bureau, 2015), increasing to KN 39,647 
billion at 2002 constant prices. This is equivalent to US$140,814 million, bringing the per 
capita income to US$1,628. The economy has been gradually changing from agriculture-
oriented activities to a wider range of activities such as services and industry.  For example, 
in 2013, the services sector had a share of 37.9% of the total GDP, while the agriculture 
sector had only 23.5%. The share of the industry sector to GDP was 33.2% in 2013; it 
is expected to have a bigger share in the coming years due to large investments in the 
mineral and hydropower sectors.  
1.2.  Energy Supply–Demand Situation
The Lao PDR is well endowed with renewable energy resources, especially hydropower 
and biomass. Since 1990 hydropower resources are being intensively developed to 
provide electricity for the requirements of the country and its neighbours. Every year 
the Lao PDR receives a significant amount of hard currencies from those power exports, 
widely considered as a driving force to boost socio-economic development and the energy 
security of the country. 
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Lao PDR’s total primary energy consumption (TPEC) in 2013 was 2.47 Mtoe. The energy 
mix consisted of hydro, oil, coal, and biomass. Many power plants in the country generate 
electricity for export, with the export figure reaching 11,548 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in 
2013, equivalent to 1.18 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), and accounting for more 
than half of the total power consumed in the country and 73.2% of total hydropower 
generation. Biomass continues to be an important energy source, and is mostly consumed 
in the country. In places where modern energy is inaccessible, Lao people use it as a main 
source for cooking, heating, and many other activities because it is abundant, obtainable 
everywhere, and free. In 2015, 1.30 Mtoe of biomass, representing 13.7% of the TPEC, 
was used. Consumption of oil products was the second largest after biomass. The Lao PDR 
does not have oil refineries; thus, the supply of all oil products has been met by imports 
from Thailand and Viet Nam.  In 2015, the Lao PDR imported 0.99 Mtoe of oil products 
to supply the demand of the transport and the residential/commercial (‘others’) sectors. 
In the same year, 6.49 Mtoe of coal was consumed, mainly by the industry sector, i.e. the 
Hongsa Thermal Power Plant, which is the first and largest coal-fired power plant that 
started operation in 2015.  Therefore, from 2015 onwards, coal demand is expected to 
increase sharply. 
Due to its geographic advantage and its many rivers, the Lao PDR is a rich country in terms 
of hydropower resources. According to the Mekong River Commission Study in 1995, 
the potential of the country’s hydropower resources is 26,000 megawatt-hours (MW). 
However, until 2015, only 3,894 MW (Department of Energy Policy and Planning, 2015) 
or 15% of total potential had been realised. In 2015, it produced around 16,501 GWh 
of electricity (Department of Energy Policy and Planning, 2015). Out of this, 65.7% 
(equivalent to 10,842 GWh) was exported to Thailand, Viet Nam, and Cambodia; the 
remaining was consumed domestically. Power exports are projected to increase sharply 
because of the government’s agreements with neighbouring countries that, by 2020, 
the Lao PDR should export 7,000 MW to Thailand and 5,000 MW to Viet Nam. The 
power sources for export are mainly from hydropower. However, one thermal power 
plant, the Hongsa Thermal Power Plant, which has 1,878 MW of installed capacity and 
three hydropower projects in 2018 are being constructed for export purposes. All projects 
for export purposes are being developed by foreign private investors through the built-
operate-transfer scheme. 
The power sector plays a major role in the energy sector, as well as in the country’s 
economy, as it generates substantial revenues for the country. The revenues may not be 
significant in the short to medium terms, but for the long term, they will be high or will 
increase manyfold because the ownership of private power plants will be transferred to 
the government. The electrification ratio in the Lao PDR is 88.94% in 2015 (Department 
of Energy Policy and Planning, 2015). The government plans to raise the country’s 


183
electrification ratio to 90% by 2020. This plan is amongst the government priorities to 
eradicate poverty in the country. Considering the increase of electricity demand in the Lao 
PDR and power production for export, optimisation of the power sector will be necessary 
for future electricity supply. 
1.3.  Energy Policies
Since the establishment of the Ministry of Energy and Mines in 2006, energy infrastructure 
and legislation have been developed and expanded. Also, the energy policies are developing 
and gaining public attention and support.  The policies gradually evolved from just the 
power sector policy to broader energy policies towards the development of a sustainable 
and environment-friendly energy sector. The improvement of the energy policies could be 
credited to the strong support from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 
and other international organisations, especially the Economic Research Institute for 
ASEAN and East Asia for its continuous cooperation and support on energy policies of 
Cambodia, the Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam to catch up with other ASEAN countries. 
The Lao PDR is a landlocked country in the middle of the Mekong subregion. It is 
surrounded by the three big economies of China, Thailand, and Viet Nam and the two 
medium economies of Myanmar and Cambodia. Thus, the Lao PDR can promote itself 
as a land-linked country to take advantage of its geography. Based on the energy policies 
exchanged in the platform of ASEAN+31 energy cooperation, evidence shows that those 
countries have high energy demand and support the energy trade and power integration in 
this region because it can raise regional energy security and sustainable development. At 
the same time, the Lao PDR has been trading electricity with Thailand for many decades; 
now it expands this policy to other  neighbouring countries to support regional energy 
cooperation. Particularly, the country will increase power exports to 15,000 MW by 2030 
– 10,000 MW to Thailand and 5,000 MW to Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Myanmar.
Apart from international cooperation, the Lao PDR also aims to:  
• 
Increase access to electricity by grid extensions and off-grid rural electrification. 
• 
Maintain an affordable tariff to promote economic and social development.
• 
Increase electrification ratio to more than 95% by 2020.
• 
Promote energy efficiency and conservation.
• 
Make modern energy more affordable and accessible for every Lao citizen even in 
remote areas.
• 
Increase the share of renewable energy in total energy supply by 30% in 2030, including 
to blend 10% of biofuels in the oil supply for the transport sector. 
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1 
ASEAN countries plus China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea.


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2.   Modelling Assumptions
This study aims to forecast the Lao PDR’s energy growth and demand from a base year of 
2015 to 2040 and to see its energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction potential if it uses 
or implements some Alternative Policy Scenarios (APSs). This study, therefore, uses four 
scenarios as described below: 
• 
Business-As-Usual  (BAU) – a scenario calculated based on the assuming growth of 
GDP, population, and oil price (Table 10.1);
• 
APS 1 – a scenario in which the Lao PDR is implementing energy saving and 
conservation programmes, i. e. reducing energy consumption by 10% during the study 
period (2015–2040);
• 
APS 3 – a scenario in which the Lao PDR is implementing the biofuel programme, 
 
i. e. blending 10% of biofuel with all oil to be consumed in the country during the study 
period;
• 
APS 5 – a scenario that combines APS 1 and APS 3 into one scenario.
3.   Outlook Results
3.1  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1  Final energy demand
In the Lao PDR, final energy consists of coal, oil, electricity, and others. Its total final 
energy consumption (TFEC) increased at an average annual rate of 8.6%, from 1.09 Mtoe 
in 1990 to 9.12 Mtoe in 2015 (Figure 10.1). The growth will continue at a faster rate of 3% 
per year and 6.9% per year in 2015–2020 and 2020–2030, respectively. Then after 2040, 
the TFEC will grow at a slower rate of 4.8% per year.
Table 10.1: Assumption of Annual Average Growth of GDP and Population
Projection Period
GDP Growth, %
Population Growth, %
2015–2020
7.0 
1.5 
2020–2030
6.5 
1.3 
2030–2040
6.0
1.2 
2013–2040
6.0 
1.2 
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Author’s assumptions based on consultation with relevant ministries;


185
For the final energy consumption by sector, the Lao PDR, like other Southeast Asian 
countries, has four sectors that use energy: industry, transport, ‘others’, and non-
energy. The ‘others’ sector covers sub-sectors like residential, agriculture, services, and 
commerce. Between 1990 and 2015, the industry sector registered the highest energy 
use at 22.9% per year, followed by the transport sector which grew at 7.5% per year, while 
the ‘others’ sector grew at the lowest rate of 1.9% per year. The highest growth rate of 
the industry sector continues until 2040. In 1990-2040, the transport sector grew at an 
average annual rate of 2.2%, followed by the ‘others’ (21%) and non-energy (0.9%) sectors. 
The share of final energy consumption by sectors is shown in Figure 10.2.
Figure 10.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector (1990–2040)
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Mtoe
30%
20%
10%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
100%
90%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Figure 10.2: Sectors’ Share in Final Energy Consumption (1990–2040)
Source: Author’s calculation.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
In terms of energy type, coal was mostly used in 2015; it stood at 6.49 Mtoe and shared 
71.1% in the total final energy demand. It is expected to have more than 71% share until the 
end of the study period. For example, coal’s share in the TFEC will be 74.5% in 2020, 78.5% 
in 2025, 76.9% in 2030, 75.0% in 2035, and 85.3% in 2040 (Figure 10.3 and Figure 10.4). 
The year 2015 was a turning point for the TFEC of the Lao PDR. In 1990–2000, Others 
included the residential and commercial sectors and always had the biggest share, 83.8% in 
1990 and 78.2% in 2000. However, in 2015, coal had the biggest share because the Hongsa 
Thermal Power Plant started operation. Other coal-fired power plants are also expected to 
be developed after 2025. From 1990 to 2000, the ‘others’ sector used biomass, which 
consists of fuelwood and charcoal, the most because a majority of Lao people still live in 
rural areas and rely on fuelwood as a main fuel for their cooking. Although using fuelwood 
is inconvenient compared to other energy types like electricity and liquefied petroleum gas, 
which are mostly used for cooking in urban areas, fuelwood costs less. 
Figure 10.3: Fuels’ Share in Total Final Energy Consumption
Source: Author’s calculation.
40%
30%
20%
10%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Others
Electricity
Oil
Coal
Figure 10.4: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990–2040)
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Others
Electicity
Oil
Coal
Mtoe


187
Oil is an important energy source for the Lao PDR because the whole transport sector relies 
solely on this fuel. The oil price directly affects the country’s socio-economic development 
because it is part of living and of doing business in the country. However, unlike electricity 
and coal, oil is the only energy that is not produced domestically; it is imported either 
from Thailand or Viet Nam. Therefore, it is worthwhile to closely observe and monitor 
its trend during this study. In 2015, 0.99 Mtoe was consumed and it is projected to grow 
at an average annual rate of 2.1% in 2015–2040. Oil demand is expected to rise from 
0.99 Mtoe in 2015 to 1.09 Mtoe in 2020, 1.21 Mtoe in 2025, 1.35 Mtoe in 2030, 1.50 
Mtoe in 2035, and 1.68 Mtoe in 2040. In terms of  average annual growth rate (AAGR), 
oil is projected to increase at a rate of 2.0% in 2015–2020, 2.1% in 2020–2030, 2.2% in 
2030–2040, and 2.1% in 2015–2040. Compared with coal, electricity, and biomass, coal 
will rank third in 2015–2040. 
3.1.2  Primary energy supply
The country’s primary energy supply consists of coal, oil, hydro, and others. Others 
cover biomass, biofuels, and exported electricity. The Lao PDR’s total primary energy 
consumption (TPEC) increased at an average annual rate of 8.6%, from 1.20 Mtoe in 1990 
to 9.49 Mtoe in 2015 (Figure 10.5). The growth is expected to continue at a faster rate 
of 7.2% per year in 2015–2020 because a big amount of coal has been used since 2015 
for a thermal power plant. The TPEC growth rate is then projected to continue at a slower 
rate of 3.3% per year during 2020–2030 and at a faster rate again of 7.1% in 2030–2040. 
However, primary energy is forecasted to grow at a rate of 5.6% per year in 2015–2040.
In 2015, coal was the energy used the most (7.04 Mtoe), followed by hydro (1.33 Mtoe) 
and biomass (1.3 Mtoe). The reason for coal being used the most is the beginning of 
the operation of the Hongsa Thermal Power Plant. This plant will also increase coal 
consumption at a high rate of 10.6% in 2015–2020, and its share in the TPEC will increase 
from 74.3% in 2015 to 86.8% in 2020. Coal’s share is projected to continuously have a 
higher percentage of more than 86% until 2040. 
In 2015, 1.33 Mtoe of hydro with a 14.1% share in the TPEC was used; it is expected to 
increase to 2.42 Mtoe at 18% TPEC share in 2020. Its AAGR is forecast to reach 2.2% 
in between 2015 and 2040, so hydro demand will increase to 2.30 Mtoe by 2040. The 
increase in hydro is due to the country’s intensive development of hydropower projects 
to meet increasing domestic demand and to export 7,000 MW to Thailand by 2025 and 
5,000 MW to Viet Nam by 2030 per agreement.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Biomass is also used a lot in the Lao PDR because it is a cheaper fuel for cooking and is 
the main fuel for most rural people.  In 1990, 1.01 Mtoe of biomass was used and this 
increased to 1.30 Mtoe in 2015. It is projected to increase to 1.39 Mtoe in 2020, 1.48 
Mtoe in 2025, 1.56 Mtoe in 2030, 1.66 Mtoe in 2035, and 1.75 Mtoe in 2040. In terms 
of its growth rate, like the projection of biomass in final energy, it is also estimated to grow 
at 1.2% between 2015 and 2040.
The demand for oil has been experiencing a high growth in the Lao PDR. Many people 
can afford to buy private cars for their daily commute, thus, significantly increasing the 
number of vehicles. Until 2015, the country did not have any refinery, and all oil products 
were imported. More than 20 oil companies did business in the Lao PDR, and they were 
authorised to import and sell oil in the country. In 1990, only 0.16 Mtoe of oil was used. Oil 
usage increased at an AAGR of 7.5% in 1990–2015 and with a 13.6% share in the TPEC in 
1990.  It increased from 0.28 Mtoe in 2000 to  0.99 Mtoe in 2015.  Its share in the TPEC 
also went down from 17.2% in 2000 to 10.4% in 2015; it is projected to have shares of 
8.1% in 2020, 6.7% in 2025, 7.3% in 2030, 7.9% in 2035, and 4.6% in 2040 (Figure 10.6). 
However, in terms of the AAGR, oil, being the fourth energy source, is expected to have a 
rate of 2.1% per year after those of coal, electricity (exported), and hydro between 2015 
and 2040.
Apart from the primary energy described above that are related to those that could be 
produced domestically and imported from its neighbours, the Lao PDR still exports a 
significant amount of electricity to Viet Nam, Cambodia, and mostly to Thailand. Figure 
10.5 shows that ‘others’ show negative signs from 1990 onwards because the exported 
electricity is greater than biomass. The Lao PDR has been exporting power to Thailand 
since Nam Ngum Dam started operation in 1971; later, many power plants followed suit. 
The exported figures increased from 0.05 Mtoe in 1990 to 1.18 Mtoe in 2015. Exported 
electricity is also projected to increase to 3.12 Mtoe in 2020, 2.38 Mtoe in 2025, 3.02 
Mtoe in 2030, 2.88 Mtoe in 2035, and 5.24 Mtoe in 2040. Although the AAGR of 
electricity for export showed a high rate of 21.4% per year in 1990–2020, it is forecasted 
to grow only at a rate of 6.1% per year in 2015–2020.


189
Figure 10.5: Primary Energy Supply by Source
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation
20.00
10.00
(10,00)
30.00
40.00
50.00
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Others
Hydro
Oil
Coal
Mtoe
Figure 10.6: Fuels’ Share in Primary Energy Supply
Source: Author’s calculation.
40%
20%
–20%
60%
80%
100%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Others
Hydro
Oil
Coal
3.1.3  Power generation
The history of Lao PDR’s power generation can be divided into periods. The first period is 
1970–2015, during which all power is generated from one source like hydropower. The 
second period is after 2015, during which the country has both hydro and thermal power 
plants because the Hongsa Lignite Power Plant started operation in 2015. In 1990, the 
Lao PDR produced only 0.82 TWh of electricity, then increased to 3.44 TWh in 2000 and 
to 17.76 TWh in 2015. Its generation is forecasted to increase to 41.12 TWh in 2020. 
The outputs of power generation are estimated to go up dramatically from 2015 to 2040; 
they are forecasted to reach 33.63 TWh in 2025, 42.32 TWh in 2030, 42.32 TWh in 
2035, and 71.86 TWh in 2040 (Figure 10.7). All power generated before 2015 was from 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
hydropower sources. Over that period, power generation grew at an AAGR of 13.1%. This 
rate is then expected to be greater than 18.3% in 2015–2020, at 0.3% in 2020–2030, and 
at 5.4% in 2030–2040. Because of the first thermal power plant being put into operation 
in 2015, the power generation mix in the Lao PDR has changed since 2015 (Figures 10.7 
and 10.8). For example, in 2015, out of the output of power generation, hydropower 
plants are projected to share 87.3%, while the thermal power plant will share 12.7% of 
total generation. Hydropower plants are forecasted to continue to have the bigger share 
over the thermal power plant until 2020.
Figure 10.7: Electricity Generation in 2040
TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation
30.00
10.00
20.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Hydro
Coal
TWh
Figure 10.8: Technologies’ Share in Electricity Generation (1990–2040)
Source: Author’s calculation.
40%
30%
20%
10%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Hydro
Coal


191
3.2  Energy Saving and CO2 Reduction Potential (APS)
For this study, the Lao PDR uses three APSs for its energy saving and CO2 reduction 
potential: (i) EEC scenario (APS1), (ii) development of renewable energy (APS3), and 
(iii) APS5 that combines APS1 and APS3. These three APSs yield the following changes. 
First, the TPEC of APS1 amounting to 2.76 Mtoe has decreased; compared with the BAU 
scenario, it declined from 35.055 Mtoe in the BAU scenario to 32.289 Mtoe in APS1. 
Second, there is no change in primary energy consumption of APS3. Third, primary 
energy consumption of APS5 has been reduced to the same amount as APS1. The 10% 
reduction in the TPEC mainly comes from the implementation of EEC programmes. All 
existing primary energies such as coal, oil, hydro, and others are reduced (Figure 10.10).
3.1.4  Energy indicators
In 2020, the Lao PDR’s primary energy intensity (TPES/GDP) will reach the highest level 
of 1,872 toe/million 2010 US$ and is expected to decline to 1,076 toe/million 2010 
US$ in 2035 (Figure 10.9). Similarly, final energy intensity will decline even lower; from 
1,791 toe/million 2010 US$  in 2020, it will  decrease to 888 toe/million 2010 US$ 
in 2035. This indicates that energy consumers are implementing energy efficiency and 
conservation (EEC) programmes. 
Figure 10.9: Energy Intensity and Other Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
Source: Author’s calculations.
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
0
9,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
10,000
1990=100
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 per Intensity
CO2 per Capita
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 10.10: Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
20.0
10.0
0.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
-10.0
Mtoe
BAU
APS1
APS3
APS5
Coal
Hydro
Others
Oil
Figure 10.11 shows no change in power generation from the BAU scenario to APS1, APS3, 
and APS5.
Figure 10.12 illustrates energy saving potential amounting to 2.797 million tons of carbon 
(Mt-C) in APS1 and APS5. CO2 emissions declined from 40.943 Mt-C in the BAU 
scenario to 38.146 Mt-C in APS1 and to 38.146 Mt-C in APS5. This reduction is a result 
of the EEC programmes.
Figure 10.11: Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation
30.0
10.0
20.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
0.0
BAU
APS1
APS3
APS5
Hydro
Coal
TWh


193
3.2.1  Final energy consumption
For trends of final energy demand of the BAU scenario and the APS in each sector, 
the model shows that, in APS1, final energy demand is expected to increase from 9.19 
Mtoe in 2015 to 26.65 Mtoe in 2040. Industry demonstrates the highest trends both in 
consumption and share in the TFEC in 2015–2040. This dominance of industry in the 
TFEC is due to the high use of coal in the Hongsa Thermal Power Plant and other coal-
fired power plants that have operated since 2015. In APS1, industry consumed 6.70 
Mtoe of energy in 2015, and is forecast to consume 7.80 Mtoe in 2020, 10.72 Mtoe in 
2025, 10.76 Mtoe in 2030, 10.78 Mtoe in 2035, and 22.94 Mtoe in 2040. Likewise, it 
always keeps larger shares throughout the study period, i.e. 73.5% in 2015, 76.4% in 2020, 
80.0% in 2025, 78.3% in 2030, 76.5% in 2035, and 86.1% in 2040. Industry also shows 
the highest growth rate per year in 2015–2040 during which it is expected to grow at 5% 
per year. After industry, the ‘others’ sector is forecast to use the most energy for the study 
period: 1.44 Mtoe in 2020, 1.59 Mtoe in 2025, 1.76 Mtoe in 2030, 1.96 Mtoe in 2035, 
and 2.20 Mtoe in 2040 (Figure 10.13).
For the AAGR, APS1 is expected to grow more slowly than in the BAU scenario in 2015–
2040. The growth rate is forecast to be 4.8% per year in the BAU scenario and 4.4% in APS1.
For final energy demand by fuel, similar to the BAU scenario, in APS1 coal also showed a 
majority share of 71.1% in 2015. It is forecast to increase gradually to 78.4% in 2025, decline 
gradually to 76.8% in 2030 and to 74.9% in 2035, then go up again to 85.2% in 2040.
Figure 10.13 shows that, in 2040, the final energy demand in industry is expected to be 
reduced from the BAU scenario to the APS at 10.0%; in transport, 9.0%; ‘others’, 10.0%; 
and non-energy, 4.6%.
Figure 10.12: Comparison of Scenarios to Carbon Emissions in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculation.
37.0
35.0
36.0
38.0
39.0
40.0
41.0
42.0
34.0
BAU
APS1
APS3
APS5
Oil
Coal
Mt-C
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 10.13: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60.0
40.0
20.0
100.0
80.0
120.0
0.0
–9.0%
–10.0%
Mtoe
–4.6%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–10.0%
3.2.2  Primary energy consumption
In APS1, 9.49 Mtoe of primary energy was consumed in 2015; it is expected to increase 
to 12.30 Mtoe in 2020, 17.05 Mtoe in 2030, and 33.87 Mtoe in 2040. In terms of the 
AAGR, primary energy grew at 8.6% per year between 1990 and 2015. It is expected to 
grow at 5.3% in 2015–2020, 3.3% in 2020–2030, and 7.1% in 2030–2040. But for 2015–
2040, primary energy is expected to increase at 5.2%.
Figure 10.14 shows that, by comparing the BAU scenario and the APS in 2040, coal and 
oil are expected to decrease by 6.9% and 9.0, respectively. However, ‘others’ is forecast to 
increase by 9.7% because of the increase in power exports to Lao PDR’s neighbours.


195
3.2.3  Projected energy savings
Figure 10.15 shows that, in 2040, primary energy is expected to decrease from the 
BAU scenario to the APS by 2.34 Mtoe or 6.3%. This decrease in the TPEC is due to 
implementation of the 10% reduction in energy consumption from 2015 to 2030.
Figure 10.14: Primary Energy Demand by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-5.0
-10.0
35.0
30.0
40.0
0.0
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
Mtoe
–9.7%
–6.9%
–9.0%
Figure 10.15: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
0.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
2.34 Mtoe,-6.3%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.4  Energy intensities
As the Lao PDR endeavours to move towards an efficient and competitive economy and 
promote sustainable development, energy intensity for both final and primary energy has 
been reduced significantly. Final energy intensity is projected to decrease from 1,791 
toe/million 2010 US$ in 2015 to 1,279.2 toe/million 2010 US$ in 2040. Primary energy 
intensity is expected to decline from 1,862.1 toe/million 2010 US$ in 2015 to 1,591.7 
toe/million 2010 US$ in 2040. Figures 10.16 and 10.17 show that energy intensity in 
APS5 is less than that in the BAU scenario. This is due to the implementation of the 10% 
energy saving from 2015 to 2030. However, Figure 10.17 shows an increase in energy 
intensity between 2035 and 2040 because of the end of the energy savings programme.
Figure 10.16: Final Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, toe = tons of oil.
Source: Author’s calculation.
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
-
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
2,000
toe/million 2010 US$
BAU
APS5


197
3.2.5  CO2 emissions from energy consumption
By reducing energy consumption by 10%, the Lao PDR can reduce CO2 emissions by 2.8 
Mt-C (or 6.8%) in the APS in 2040 (Figure 10.18 ).
Figure 10.17: Primary Energy Intensity, BAU and APS (1990–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, toe = tons of oil.
Source: Author’s calculation.
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
-
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
2,000
toe/million 2010 US$
BAU
APS5
Figure 10.18: CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, BAU vs. APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
0.0
Million Tons of Oil Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
2.8 Mtoe,-6.8%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
In this study, the Lao PDR will achieve energy savings mainly through the implementation 
of the government’s renewable EEC programmes.  The programmes consist of an increase 
of the renewable energy share in total energy supply by 30% by 2025, 10% of biofuels in 
oil supply for the transport sector, and the reduction of 10% in energy consumption in all 
sectors.
To reduce both the TPEC and the TFEC, as well as CO2 emissions, the Lao PDR should 
extend the implementation of the renewable EEC programmes until 2040. As these 
programmes are most important in reducing energy, these should be proposed as a 
national policy.  At the same time, it should implement sound projects and programmes. 
The industry sector should implement an energy management system, develop and 
implement its own energy saving or reduction plans, cooperate with the government 
on energy security, and regularly conduct seminars on energy-saving measures. The 
transport sector should increase public transport in big cities and conduct campaigns to 
promote the use of public transport. The ‘others’ sector should raise public awareness in 
energy conservation and implement energy management systems in the building sector. 
In addition, a study on the correlation between GDP and energy consumption should be 
carried out and energy statistics should be improved accordingly. The government should 
also consider the following:
1. Implement EEC programmes in all sectors.
2. Establish an EEC fund (like that of Thailand) to support EEC programmes and energy-
saving companies. 
3. Increase public transport and use electric vehicles (including public buses and tuk-
tuks) to reduce oil imports, CO2 emissions, and worsening traffic congestion.
4. Reform electricity tariff to encourage more EEC activities, e.g. time of use  pricing.
5. Increase the share of coal thermal power generation in the power generation mix by 
using local coal and clean coal technology to stabilise electricity supply.
6. Promote power trade within ASEAN.
References
Department of Energy Policy and Planning (2015), Electricity Statistics Yearbook. Ministry 
of Energy and Mines.
Lao Statistics Bureau (2015), Statistical Yearbook 2015, Vientiane: Lao Statistics Bureau, 
Ministry of Planning and Investment, Lao PDR. www.lsb.gov.la.


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MALAYSIA COUNTRY REPORT
1.   Introduction
Malaysia is in Southeast Asia. Its 329,847 square kilometres of territory comprise 
Peninsular Malaysia and the Sabah and Sarawak States on the island of Borneo. Malaysia 
has a tropical, humid climate with temperatures averaging 30oC. Its gross domestic 
product (GDP) grew steadily over the last 26 years, growing at an average of 5.7% per year 
from 1990 to 2016, except for sluggish growth in 1998 due to the Asian financial crisis 
and in 2001 due to slow growth of export demand for electronic products. The country 
also experienced the latest downward economy trend in 2009 due to the world economic 
crisis.
Malaysia is well endowed with conventional energy resources such as oil, gas, and coal, as 
well as renewables such as hydro, biomass, and solar energy. Crude oil and condensates 
reserves in the country stood at 5.03 billion barrels or 21 years of lifespan as of 1 January 
2016, supported by the rising reserves from the deep-water discoveries in offshore Sabah. 
Meanwhile, natural gas reserves are at 87.76 trillion standard cubic feet (Tscf), enough to 
cover 37 years of gas output at current production levels. As of January 2015, reserves of 
coal stood at 1,983.37 million tons. In terms of energy equivalent, Malaysia’s gas reserves 
are four times the size of its crude oil reserves. Natural gas reserves off the east coast of 
Peninsular Malaysia are dedicated for domestic consumption while those in Sarawak are 
allocated as revenue earner in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Malaysia 
is a net energy exporter. 
During the last 10 years, some of the barriers to the uptake of energy efficiency and 
renewable energy have been removed. But there is room for further improvement and 
progress. The challenge would be to give renewable energy the necessary lift to greater 
heights in the next 5 years. Efforts to promote energy efficiency should be intensified. 
In addition, climate change, which is inextricably linked with energy use, has become 
increasingly important, as people begin to appreciate the implications of an increased risk 
of unpredictable, severe weather and rapid changes to the ecosystem. Thus, the need to 
CHAPTER 11
Zaharin Zulkifli, Energy Commission of Malaysia


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
work towards a truly sustainable energy future becomes more compelling. A sustainable 
energy system is central to meeting the economic goals of Malaysia. Malaysia’s levels 
of energy use per unit of production (intensity) are high compared to other nations. A 
national strategy aimed at reducing energy intensity must be drawn up. Energy planning 
must recognise that the place to begin is not only with supply but also the management 
of demand for energy services, by increasing energy efficiency and the use of renewable 
energy sources to meet any remaining demand. To pursue the green growth stated in the 
Eleventh Malaysia Plan, KeTTHA1 launched the Green Technology Master Plan (GTMP) 
in 2017 to earmark green growth as one of the six game changers that would alter the 
trajectory of the economy’s growth. The GTMP creates a framework for facilitating the 
mainstreaming of green technology into the planned development of Malaysia while 
encompassing the four pillars set out in the plan. 
Throughout the years, the government of Malaysia has formulated some policies and 
programmes on energy to ensure the long-term reliability and security of energy supply 
for sustainable socio-economic development in the country. The major energy policies 
implemented in the country are:
• 
Petroleum Development Act (1974)
• 
National Petroleum Policy (1975)
• 
National Energy Policy (1979)
• 
National Depletion Policy (1980)
• 
Four-Fuel Diversification Policy (1981)
• 
Fifth Fuel Policy (2000)
• 
Biofuel Policy (2006)
• 
National Green Technology Policy (2009)
• 
National Renewable Energy Policy and Action Plan (2010)
• 
New Energy Policy and 10th Malaysia Plan (2010)
• 
Eleventh Malaysia Plan (2015) 
• 
Green Technology Master Plan (2017)
2. Modelling Assumptions
The energy demand projections up to 2040 were estimated using the econometric 
approach. Historical energy demand data were taken from the National Energy Balance 
published by the Energy Commission of Malaysia. The economic indicators used in 
1 
Formerly the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water. Now it is the Ministry of Energy, Science, Technology, 
Environment and Climate Change (MESTECC).


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Malaysia Country Report
energy modelling such as GDP were taken from the World Bank’s World Development 
Indicators. Energy modelling involved the estimation of final energy consumption and 
the corresponding primary energy requirements or supply. Figure 11.1 shows the model 
structure for final energy demand projection and estimation of transformation inputs to 
arrive at the primary energy requirements.
The econometric approach is the method applied in forecasting final energy demand. 
The historical correlation between energy demand as well as macroeconomic and activity 
indicators were derived by regression analysis using Microfit. Microfit is an interactive 
software package written for microcomputers and is designed especially for the 
econometric modelling of time series data. It has powerful features for data processing, 
file management, graphic display, estimation, hypothesis testing, and forecasting under 
various univariate and multivariate model specifications. 
The future energy demand for various energy sources were estimated using assumed 
values of the macroeconomic and activity indicators. Future values of these indicators 
were also derived using historical data depending on the sufficiency for such analysis. In 
the model structure, energy demand is modelled as a function of activity such as income, 
industrial production, number of vehicles, number of households, number of appliances, 
floor area of buildings, etc. In the residential sector, for example, the demand for electricity 
Figure 11.1: Modelling Structure
Macroeconomic Assumptions
Final Consumption
Primary Energy
GDP, Crude Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, Population, GDP Deflator, Index of Industrial 
Production, etc.
Industry
Transport
Power 
Generation
Agriculture
Residential & 
Commercial
Oil Refinery
Non-Energy
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Author.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
could be a function of the number of households, disposable income, and penetration 
rate of electrical appliances. In the commercial sector, energy consumption could be 
driven by building floor arrears, private consumption, and other factors that encourage 
commercial activities. However, due to unavailable information on the activity indicators, 
macroeconomic data, which is GDP, was the best variable to search for the relationship 
with the energy demand trend. GDP information was broken down into industry GDP, 
commercial GDP, agriculture GDP, and manufacturing GDP. These macroeconomic 
indicators were mainly used to generate the model equations. In some cases, where 
regression analysis is not applicable due to insufficiency of data or there is failure to derive 
a statistically sound equation, other methods such as share of percentage approach are 
used.
One of the main drivers of the modelling assumption is GDP growth rates. The GDP 
growth rates assumption forecast was based on IHS2 data from a study conducted by 
the Economic Planning Unit (EPU) of Malaysia (IHS Energy Insight, 2014). Most of the 
energy demand equations for Malaysia use GDP as the key factor in determining future 
projections. This is due to the high correlation between energy demand and GDP. Table 
11.1 shows the assumptions of GDP growth rates by sector.
2 
IHS Markit Ltd is a London-based global information provider that was formed in 2016 when IHS Inc. and Markit Ltd. 
merged.
Table 11.1: GDP Growth Assumptions by Sector to 2040 (% per year)
GDP Growth Rate, 
%
2016–2020
2021–2025
2026–2030
2031–2035
2036–2040
Agriculture
2.16
2.26
2.09
1.91
1.74
Mining & Quarrying
0.01
1.01
3.03
3.74
5.17
Manufacturing
3.55
3.16
2.77
2.47
2.3
Construction
3.44
3.01
2.54
2.26
2.09
Services
4.41
4.42
3.67
3.07
2.67
Total GDP
3.88
3.77
3.19
2.74
2.43
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: IHS data from Economic Planning Unit (EPU) (2016).


203
Besides future GDP growth rates, the annual average population growth was also a key 
driver for future energy growth. In 2015, Malaysia’s population was 31.0 million; it is 
projected to increase by 10.5 million (33.9%) to 41.5 million in 2040. However, annual 
population growth rate would be decreasing from 1.15% in 2016–2020 to 1.02% in 
2021–2025, 0.87% in 2026–2030, 0.74% in 2031–2035, and 0.63% in 2036–2040. This 
situation is in tandem with the targeted decline in fertility rate and international migration. 
The assumption of future growth rates of population was obtained from the Department 
of Statistics Malaysia (Table 11.2).
In accelerating its socio-economic development, supported by its current position as a net 
energy exporter, Malaysia subsidises energy use for various users. The energy subsidies 
offered to various energy users in the country have been growing from year to year, 
corresponding with the volatility of global energy prices and growing demand for energy. 
The subsidies have reached a worrisome level that the government expenditure capacity 
has been stretched beyond its ability and has taken the share of other developmental 
budget allocations. This situation has prompted the Malaysian government to review its 
policies related to energy subsidies and to act to mitigate growing energy subsidies. In 
this regard, energy efficiency offers a sound solution to mitigate the effects of the gradual 
removal of energy subsidies.
In promoting energy efficiency, the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water 
(MEGTW) had enacted several legal instruments. The main legal instrument on energy 
efficiency promotion is the Electricity Supply Act (Amendment) 2001, or Act A1116. 
This empowers the MEGTW, under Sections 23A to 23C, to promote efficient use of 
electricity in the country. Deriving from Act 1116, the MEGTW issued the Efficient 
Management of Electrical Energy Regulation 2008. Under this regulation, all installations 
that consume or generate 3 million kilowatt-hours (KWh) or more of electricity over  6 
months will be required to engage an electrical energy manager who shall, amongst 
others, be responsible to analyse the total consumption of electrical energy, advise on 
the development and implementation of measures to ensure efficient management 
Table 11.2: Population Growth Assumption to 2040
2016–2020
2021–2025
2026–2030
2031–2035
2036–2040
Population (million)
33.8
36.0
38.1
39.9
41.5
Population growth 
(%)
1.15
1.02
0.87
0.74
0.63
Source: Department of Statistics (2016).
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of electrical energy, and monitor the effectiveness of the measures taken. The Energy 
Commission is empowered to enforce the energy efficiency regulations.
A lack of holistic and long-term policy for demand-side management (DSM) has been 
identified as a main barrier in implementing energy efficiency initiatives in Malaysia, 
even though it is an important element in the country’s energy plan and policy. Energy 
efficiency initiatives are set to receive renewed attention under the Eleventh Malaysia 
Plan through a reinvigoration of the DSM. This is intended to be achieved by formulating 
a comprehensive DSM master plan. The EPU will initiate a study on DSM, which covers 
the whole spectrum of the energy sector.
Malaysia has developed a reasonably well-designed renewable support mechanism that 
includes a set of legislation: published feed-in tariffs (FiT) with annual digression rates from 
2013 onwards, quota mechanisms, a Renewable Energy Master Plan, and an implementing 
agency (the Sustainable Energy Development Authority or SEDA). Malaysia has opted for 
FiT to drive the development of renewable capacity. FiT is guaranteed by the Renewable 
Energy Act 2011 and the levels are set by SEDA. The scheme is intended to provide a 
reasonable level of return for investors over a fixed period to give a level of certainty. FiTs 
are available for biogas, biomass, solar photovoltaic (PV), and small hydro. Support of 
16 years is given for biomass and biogas and 21 years for small hydropower and solar PV. 
A capacity quota system is in place to manage the new capacity added to the system. 
This mechanism enables Malaysia to shape the amount of new capacity to be added to 
the system from the different technologies and make it economically sustainable. Similar 
systems have been applied, for example, for solar PV in deregulated markets, including 
Italy and Spain, in response to a rush for new installations. FiT levels adjust to the cost of 
the technology. Except for small hydro, FiTs have been revised every year per different 
digression rates from 2013 onwards. This system is used in countries like Germany to 
adjust the level of remuneration to technology cost evolutions. However, these digression 
rates must be correctly calculated to avoid a slowdown in capacity buildup. Such a 
mechanism has proven to work well only in relatively experienced markets, with more 
track records and know-how.
To complement the current FiT mechanism, a new instrument termed net energy 
metering (NEM) will be implemented in the Eleventh Malaysia Plan. NEM aims to 
promote and encourage more solar PV generation by prioritising internal consumption 
before any excess electricity generated is fed to the grid. NEM is expected to encourage 
manufacturing facilities and the public to generate clean electricity. This will further 
assist the government’s effort to increase the contribution of renewable energy in the 
generation mix. NEM, which was started on 1 November 2016, is regulated by the Energy 


205
Commission and implemented by SEDA. The total quota allocated for the 5-year period 
(2016–2020) is 500 megawatts (MW).3
The new NEM scheme is only applicable to Peninsular Malaysia and applicants must 
be a registered TNB customers. NEM is executed by the Ministry of Energy, Science, 
Technology, Environment and Climate Change (MESTECC), regulated by the Energy 
Commission (EC), with Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA) Malaysia as 
the implementing agency.
As a continuation of the government’s effort to boost solar PV market in the economy, 
the EC has been tasked with implementing the large-scale solar (LSS) programme, which 
is based on a bidding process. The total quota allocated for the LSS from 2017 to 2020 is 
1,250 MW. Of this, 250 MW was granted direct award under the fast-track programme. 
As of 2018, there are 91.5 MW solar operated from five LSS projects from an open bidding 
exercise. While in Sabah, there are 50 MW solar operated from direct award projects. 
The remaining 1,000 MW fall under the bidding mechanism. In August 2017, the Energy 
Commission announced the bid open price for LSS PV plants for 2019–2020. The bid 
was divided into three categories based on capacity: 1 MW–5.99 MW; 6.00 MW–9.99 
MW; and 10 MW–30 MW. The results showed that the lowest bid received was in the 10 
MW–30.00 MW category, with a tariff of RM0.3398/kWh (US$0.079/kWh).
The implementation of the Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development Plan and the 
Nuclear Power Regulatory Infrastructure Development Plan would be an important 
step in developing nuclear power to supply electricity in the future. This will support 
the multiple goals of improving energy security, spurring economic development, and 
reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A new independent atomic energy regulatory 
commission will be established. The 10-Year Comprehensive Communication Plan and 
Strategies on Nuclear Power for electricity will be continued to increase awareness and 
public acceptance.
3 
The Ministry has introduced several solar PV initiatives to encourage Malaysia’s renewable energy (RE) uptake. From 
the RE townhall held on 12 July 2018, one of the key issues highlighted by the PV industry is the need to change 
the concept of NEM from the existing net billing to true net energy metering. This is will help improve the return of 
investment of solar PV under NEM.
 
Effective from 1 January 2019, NEM will be improved by adopting the true net energy metering concept and this will 
allow excess solar PV generated energy to be exported back to the grid on a ‘one-on-one’ offset basis. This means 
that every 1kWh exported to the grid will be offset against 1kWh consumed from the grid, instead of at the Displaced 
Cost previously.
 
The quota allocation for NEM is 500 MW up to year 2020. Quota allocation will be divided into domestic and non-
domestic category. Agriculture will be a new category to be added to the NEM scheme. The NEM category has been 
divided into four categories – Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agriculture.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
In setting up the scenarios for this project, several assumptions or scenarios have been 
identified (Table 11.3).
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.   Business-As-Usual Scenario
Total primary energy consumption (TPEC) in the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario 
registered a growth at 5.2% per year from 1990 until 2015. The outlook results showed 
that the TPEC is projected to increase by 3.6% per year from 2015 until 2040. Hydro 
will increase from 1.22 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2015 to 2.05 Mtoe with 
average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 2.1%. Oil supply will increase at 3.5% per year in 
2015–2040. The supply of coal consumed mainly by the power sector is expected to 
increase by 3.3% per year in 2015–2040. Natural gas will experience an increase from 
24.60 Mtoe in 2015 to 66.11 Mtoe in 2040, or an AAGR of 4%. Biomass for power 
generation will increase at an average annual rate of 8% in 2015–2040 while biofuel use 
for land transportation will increase at 1% per year (Figure 11.2).
Table 11.3: Potential Mitigation Scenarios
Scenario
Mitigation Actions
Energy Efficiency 
and Conservation
1. Improve final energy consumption of all energy types by 8% in 2016 and 
reach 16% by 2040. 
Renewable Energy
1. Implement renewable energy  in the power sector by 2036:
a. Hydro: 8,543 MW
b. Solar: 2,679 MW
c. Biomass: 916 MW
d. Biogas: 194 MW
e. MSW: 39 MW
Total: 12,372 MW
2. Increase the share of biodiesel from 5% to 7% from 2020
Energy Efficiency in 
the Power Sector
(EEP)
1. Improve the efficiency of power plants:
a. Natural gas at 55% by 2040
b. Coal at 45% by 2040
Nuclear (NUC)
Commission 2,000 MW of nuclear in 2036
Alternative Policy 
Scenario
Combination of all scenarios:
APS = EEC + RE + EEP + NUC
MSW = Municipal Sold Waste, MW = megawatt.
Source: Author’s assumptions.


207
In terms of share by fuel type, oil share will decrease from 38.7% in 2015 to 37.2% in 2040. 
However, the share of natural gas will increase from 34.9% in 2015 to 38.3% in 2040. Coal 
will have a decreasing share over the projection period, from 24.6% in 2015 to 22.6% in 
2040. The share of hydro will decrease from 1.7% in 2015 to 1.2% in 2040 (Figure 11.3).
Total final energy demand in the BAU scenario will increase from 49.52 Mtoe in 2015 to 
125.14 Mtoe in 2040, illustrating an AAGR of 3.8% per year. Final demand of natural gas 
and electricity will experience the highest AAGR of 4.6% and 3.7% per year, from 2015 
to 2040, respectively. Oil demand will grow from 26.39 Mtoe in 2015 to 62.52 Mtoe in 
2040, or 3.5% per year. Coal demand will increase 3.5% per year from 2015 until 2040 
and other fuels will grow from 0.39 Mtoe in 2015 to 0.50 Mtoe in 2040, or 1% per year 
(Figure 11.4)
Figure 11.2: Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
80
60
40
20
100
120
140
160
180
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
Mtoe
Figure 11.3: Share of Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60
40
20
80
100
-
%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Hydro
Others
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 11.4: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mtoe
Analysis by share showed that oil, with 50%, will still dominate in 2040, slightly lower than 
that in 2015 (53.3%). This will be followed by natural gas (23.4%) and electricity (22.8%) 
in 2040. Share of coal will decrease from 3.6% in 2015 to 3.4% in 2040 (Figure 11.5).
Final energy demand by sector showed that the non-energy use sector will lead the growth 
with 4.2% per year from 2015 until 2040. This will be followed by the ‘others’ sector 
growing from 8.53 Mtoe in 2015 until 22.29 Mtoe in 2040 or 3.9% per year. The transport 
sector is expected to increase from 21.10 Mtoe in 2015 to 53.03 Mtoe in 2040, or 3.8% 
per year. The industry sector will have an average annual growth of 3.5% per year from 
2015 until 2040 (Figure 11.6).
Figure 11.5: Share of Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60
40
20
80
100
-
%
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Others


209
Analysis by share showed that the transport sector will still dominate energy use in 2040, 
with 42.4% compared to 42.6% in 2015. This will be followed by the industry sector with 
26.6% share in 2040 compared to 28.2% in 2015. The share of non-energy use is 13.2% 
of total final energy demand in 2040, to increase in 2015 at 12%. The share of the ‘others’ 
sector is expected to be at 17.8% in 2040 (Figure 11.7).
In the BAU scenario, total power generation is expected to grow around 3.6% per year 
from 2015 until 2040, reaching 368.13 terawatt-hours (TWh). Power generation from 
other types of fuel (others) will have the fastest growth at 7% per year during the same 
period. Power generation from natural gas is projected to increase to 191.40 TWh in 2040 
from 69.96 TWh in 2015. Power generation from coal will grow 3.4% per year from 63.47 
TWh in 2015 to 145.83 TWh in 2040. Electricity generation from hydro will increase by 
2.1% per year during the same period. Power generation from oil is expected to decline 
by 0.3% per year to register at 1.60 TWh in 2040 compared to 1.74 TWh in 2015 (Figure 
11.8).   
Figure 11.6: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
60
40
20
80
100
120
140
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Non-Energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Mtoe
Figure 11.7: Share of Final Energy Consumption by Sectors, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
40
30
20
10
50
60
70
80
90
100
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Non-Energy
Others
Transport
Industry
%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 11.8: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation.
200
150
100
50
250
300
350
400
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
In terms of share, power generation mix will be dominated by natural gas and coal in 2040 
with share of 52.0% and 39.6%, respectively, followed by hydro with a share of 6.5% in 2040 
compared to 9.4% in 2015. Share of others will be at 1.5% of the total power generation in 
2040. Oil share will be at 0.4% in 2040 compared to 1.2% share in 2015.
In the BAU scenario, the thermal efficiency of coal power plants is expected to improve 
to 36.1% in 2040 from 35.0% in 2015. That of oil power plants is projected to remain the 
same over the same period at around 33%. Thermal efficiency of natural gas power plants 
will further improve to almost 44.8% by 2040 from the 2015 level of 40.0% (Figure 11.10).
Figure 11.9: Share of Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
40
30
20
10
50
60
70
80
90
100
-
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
%
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Hydro
Others


211
Malaysia’s primary energy intensity is expected to increase to 223 toe/million US$ in 2040 
from 214 toe/million US$ in 2015, while final energy intensity is expected to increase to 
161 toe/million US$ in 2040 compared to 150 toe/million US$ in 2015. Primary energy 
per capita is projected to increase to 4.37 toe/person in 2040 compared to 2.30 toe/
person in 2015.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity is expected to decrease to 150 t-C/million US$ in 2040 
from 157 t-C/million US$ in 2015. CO2 per primary energy would slightly decrease in 
2040 at 0.67 t-C/toe from 0.74 t-C/toe in 2015.
Figure 11.10: Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
1990
2015
2025
2035
2040
-
50
40
30
20
10
%
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Figure 11.11: Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculation.
1990
2015
2025
2035
2040
-
300
350
400
450
250
150
200
100
50
1990=100
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.  Alternative Policy Scenario 
In the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), growth in final energy demand will be at 3.5% from 
2015 until 2040, slightly lower than that of the BAU scenario. The slower rate of increase 
in the APS is projected to be the result of improvements in manufacturing technologies 
as well as efforts to improve energy efficiency, particularly in the industry and the ‘others’ 
sectors. Thus, savings of 16% in the industry sector in 2040 could be expected. In the 
‘others’ sector, the growth rate of energy consumption is projected to be slower than 
the BAU scenario at 3.2% per year compared to 3.9% per year in the BAU scenario. The 
potential saving of 16% in 2040 can be achieved through the implementation of energy 
efficiency measures (Figure 11.12).
In the APS, primary energy consumption is projected to increase at a slower rate than in 
the BAU scenario at 2.9% per year from 70.58 Mtoe in 2015 to 145.21 Mtoe in 2040 
(Figure 11.13).  Solar and biomass will be growing the fastest at average rates of 12.1% per 
year and 8.7% per year, respectively. This is due to the implementation of FiT, NEM, and 
LSS in power generation that largely impact on primary energy consumption in 2040 as 
more renewable energy for power generation is expected to be commissioned. Hydro will 
also increase fast but at a slower rate of 2.4% per year between 2015 and 2040.  Oil will 
have slower growth rates of 3.3% per year in 2015–2040 from the BAU scenario. Natural 
gas and coal are  projected to increase at 3.0% per year and 1.5% per year, respectively. 
Nuclear power as a future energy option will be introduced after 2036 (Figure 11.13).
Figure 11.12: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
30
20
10
50
40
60
0
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
0.0%
0.0%
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–16%
–16%


213
3.3.  Projected Energy Savings
The energy savings that could be achieved under the APS because of energy efficiency 
efforts in the industry and the ‘others’ sectors, more efficient thermal power supply, and 
higher contribution from renewable energy are estimated at 27.53 Mtoe in 2040 or 15.9% 
(Figure 11.14).
Figure 11.13: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
60,0
50,0
70,0
0,0
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
Mtoe
190.4%
–35.1%
–4.5%
–22.8%
Figure 11.14: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
120
140
100
80
60
40
20
160
200
180
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS
27.53 Mtoe,-15.9%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Major savings can be achieved by switching from coal or natural gas to renewable energy 
and nuclear power. While for final energy demand, savings of 8.9 Mtoe – comprising 
savings of 5.3 Mtoe in the industry sector and 3.6 Mtoe in the ‘others’ sector – can be 
achieved in 2040.
3.4.  CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption
In the BAU scenario, total CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to 
increase by 3.3% per year in 2015–2040. In 2015, the CO2 level was at 52.0 million tons 
of carbon (Mt-C) and was expected to increase to 116.3 Mt-C in 2040 under the BAU 
scenario. 
In the APS, the annual increase in CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2040 will be lower than 
in the BAU scenario at 2.2% per year, which is consistent with the growth in primary 
energy consumption. Reduced CO2 emissions in the APS of 25.94 Mt-C or 22.3% relative 
to the BAU scenario is also due to a significant decrease in coal consumption for power 
generation in the APS. This is because coal consumption is being replaced by natural 
gas and other clean energy sources such as nuclear and renewable energy. Furthermore, 
the lower energy usage in the industry and the ‘others’ sectors has also contributed to 
the reduction. This indicates that Malaysia’s energy-saving efforts and renewable energy 
action plan would be effective in reducing CO2 emissions (Figure 11.15).
Figure 11.15: CO2 Emissions from Energy Combustion, 
BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
100
80
60
40
20
120
140
0
Million Tons of Oil Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS
25.94 Mtoe,-22.3%


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3.5.  Review of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions 
 
 
 of Malaysia
In 2013, parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 
(UNFCCC) were invited to initiate domestic preparations for and submit their Intended 
Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) by 2015. The INDC submission aimed 
to facilitate the UNFCCC negotiations for adopting relevant instruments under the 
convention that are applicable to all parties towards achieving the objectives of the 
convention as per Article 2. Countries were expected to outline in their INDC the post-
2020 climate actions they intend to take under an international agreement. During the 
21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) of the UNFCCC in Paris in December 2015, the 
parties adopted the Paris Agreement, a historic international climate agreement aimed to 
keep the global average temperature to well below 2°C. It also aimed to pursue efforts to 
limit the increase to 1.5°C, and to achieve net zero emissions in the second half of this 
century.
Malaysia submitted its INDC to the UNFCCC in November 2015. Its INDC stipulates 
that Malaysia intends to reduce its GHG emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 
relative to that in 2005. This consists of 35% on an unconditional basis and a further 10% 
conditional upon receipt of climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building 
from developed countries. Malaysia’s INDC was developed by a participatory process 
through an inter-ministerial and government agencies working group. A stakeholders’ 
workshop was conducted in 2015 to obtain inputs on possible measures to reduce GHG 
emissions.
Based on results calculated from the APS, Malaysia already achieved its unconditional 
target of 35% of GHG emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 relative to that in 2005 by 
40.8% (Table 11.4).
Table 11.4: Current Results of Key Indicators from APS
2016–2020
2021–2025
GDP (billions of 2010 US$)
204.862
582.879
CO2 emissions (Mt-C)
42.400
71.391
Carbon intensity
0.207
0.122
Total reduction (%)
(40.82)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, GDP = gross domestic product, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
To achieve the 45% conditional target upon receipt of climate finance, technology transfer, 
and capacity building from developed countries, Malaysia needs to exert further efforts to 
reduce its carbon emissions. New targets under the EEC scenario have been identified as 
the best solution to achieve this target (Table 11-5).
Table 11.5 shows that the new target for EEC is improvement of final energy consumption 
in all energy types by 8% in 2016 and reach 17% by 2040. The old target of 16% under the 
APS will be reached by 2040. Table 11.6 shows the INDC results.
Table 11.5: Newly Proposed Mitigation Scenario
Scenario
Mitigation Actions
Energy Efficiency 
and Conservation 
(EEC)
1. Improve final energy consumption of all energy types by 8% in 2016 and 
reach 17% by 2040. 
Renewable Energy 
(RE)
1. Implement RE in the power sector by 2036:
a. Hydro: 8,543 MW
b. Solar: 2,679 MW
c. Biomass: 916 MW
d. Biogas: 194 MW
e. MSW: 39 MW
Total: 12,372 MW
2. Increase the share of biodiesel from 5% to 7% from 2020
Energy Efficiency 
in the Power Sector 
(EEP)
1. Improve the efficiency of power plants:
a. Natural gas at 55% by 2040
b. Coal at 45% by 2040
Nuclear (NUC)
Commission 2,000 MW of nuclear in 2036
Alternative Policy 
Scenario (APS)
Combination of all scenarios:
APS = EEC + RE + EEP + NUC
MSW = Municipal Sold Waste, MW = megawatt.
Source: Author.
Table 11.6: Results for INDC Scenario
2005
2030
GDP (billions of 2010 US$)
204.862 
582.879 
CO2 emissions (Mt-C)
 42.400 
63.800 
Carbon intensity
0.207 
0.109 
Total Reduction (%)
(47.11)
GDP = gross domestic product, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions.
Source: Malaysia INDC Report.


217
4. 
  Conclusions
The TPEC in the BAU scenario registered a growth at 5.2% per year from 1990 until 2015. 
The outlook results showed that the TPEC is projected to increase by 3.6% per year from 
2015 until 2040. In the APS, primary energy consumption is projected to increase at a 
slower rate than in the BAU scenario at 2.9% per year, from 70.58 Mtoe in 2015 to 145.21 
Mtoe in 2040. Total final energy demand in the BAU scenario will increase from 49.52 
Mtoe in 2015 to 125.14 Mtoe in 2040. This illustrates an AAGR of 3.8% per year. In the 
APS, growth in final energy demand will be at 3.5% in 2015–2040, slightly lower compared 
to that of the BAU scenario. The slower rate of increase in the APS is projected to be the 
result of improvements in manufacturing technologies as well as efforts to improve energy 
efficiency, particularly in the industry and the ‘others’ sectors.
There is still room for improvement in reducing energy in Malaysia. The potential of 
reducing energy in the industry sector should consider not only electricity but also other 
fuels, such as oil and gas, especially for heating purposes. Potential saving or target for the 
transport sector in Malaysia still cannot be quantified due to lack of information. Malaysia 
needs to collect energy data on the transport sector to identify accurate potential savings. 
It also needs to develop a comprehensive policy study to identify potential energy savings 
in the transport sector. The power sector should continuously use renewable energy to 
minimise carbon emissions. Introduction of new technology that can generate electricity 
more efficiently can contribute to  potential savings. Nuclear power is a possible energy 
option in Malaysia. 
Clear action plans and targets for each sector will help formulate energy potential savings 
in Malaysia. Government policy in terms of laws and regulations is needed to ensure that 
all related initiatives in reducing energy is moving forward. Furthermore, financial support 
from developed countries will speed up the whole process in meeting the target of reducing 
energy. Since climate change has become a global issue, identifying the potential energy 
saving will be very important. This effort needs cooperation from all stakeholders such as 
policymakers, the private sector, and others. 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
References
Department of Statistics (2016), Population Projections (Revised) Malaysia 2010–2040, 
https://newss.statistics.gov.my/newss-portalx/ep/epFreeDownloadContentSearch.
seam?cid=74634 (accessed 19 January 2018).
Economic Planning Unit (EPU) (2015), Eleventh Malaysia Plan 2016–2020, http://epu.
gov.my/en/rmk/eleventh-malaysia-plan-2016-2020 (accessed 19 January 2018)
IHS Energy Insight (2014), A Study to Formulate an Energy Policy for Malaysia (2013–
2050), Putrajaya: Economic Planning Unit.
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment  (2015), ‘Malaysia INDC Report’, 
Putrajaya.
World Bank (n.d.), ‘World Development Indicators’,  https://datacatalog.worldbank.
org/dataset/world-development-indicators (accessed 19 January 2018).


219
MYANMAR COUNTRY REPORT
Tin Zaw Myint, Planning and Statistics Branch, Ministry of Electricity 
and Energy, Myanmar
1.   Background
1.1.  Country Profile 
Myanmar is the largest country in mainland Southeast Asia. It covers 676,577 square 
kilometres (km) and shares a border of 5,858 km with Bangladesh and India to the 
northwest, China to the northeast, and Thailand to the southeast. About 48% of the total 
land area is covered with forest, and most of the land is used for agriculture. Myanmar had 
a population of 52.4 million in 2015, with an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 1% 
per year from 1990 to 2015. 
Myanmar is located in Southeast Asia and has three distinct seasons. It enjoys 3 to 4 
months of heavy monsoon and abundant sunshine all year round, which makes it ideal 
for accumulating water for hydropower and for agriculture. Its topographic features 
favour the existence of numerous rivers, mountain ranges, and sedimentary basins where 
mineral deposits and energy resources have abundantly accumulated. The delta regions 
where the two major river systems (N’mail and Mali rivers) enter the Bay of Bengal and the 
2,832 km coastal strip along the southern part are also a good area for the development of 
marine ecosystems and an abundant source for marine products and chemicals.
Myanmar is endowed with rich natural resources for the production of commercial energy. 
Its current sources of energy are crude oil, natural gas, hydroelectricity, biomass, and coal. 
Besides these, wind, solar, geothermal, bioethanol, biodiesel, and biogas are potential 
energy sources found in the country. 
Myanmar’s proven energy reserves in 2017 comprised 105 million barrels of oil, 6.58 
trillion cubic feet of gas, and 542.56 million metric tons of coal. The country is a net 
exporter of energy, exporting substantial amounts of natural gas and coal to neighbouring 
countries. However, it imports around 90% of its total oil requirements.
CHAPTER 12


220
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
1 
All US$ in this report are in constant 2010 values unless specified.
1.2.  Socio-economic Status
The population of Myanmar grew at 1% per year between 1990 and 2015 to 52.4 million in 
2015. Myanmar’s gross domestic product (GDP) was US$1 70.5 billion (constant 2010) 
in 2015, and its GDP per capita grew from around US$200 in 1990 to US$1,300 in 2015. 
Aiming to enhance economic development, Myanmar formulated and implemented 
5-year short-term plans in 1992 to 2013. The first (1992–1995), second (1996–2000), 
third (2001–2005), and fourth plans (2006–2010) achieved AAGRs in GDP of 7.5%, 
8.5%, 12.8%, and 12.0%, respectively. The last 5-year plan (2011–2016) was formulated 
to achieve an AAGR of 7% in GDP.
1.3.  Energy Consumption in the Base Year
Myanmar’s total primary energy supply was 19.8 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) 
in 2015. Natural gas is mainly used to generate electricity and in industry. Currently, 
Myanmar has 5,235 megawatts (MW) of installed generation capacity and produced 
almost 16 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2015 (Table 12.1). During the same 
year, thermal (coal, natural gas, and oil) and hydro accounted for 41% and 59% of total 
electricity generation, respectively.
Table 12.1: Installed Capacity and Power Generation by Fuel Type (2015–2016)
No.
Type of Fuel
2015-2016
Installed (MW)
Generation (GWh)
1
Hydro
3,215
9,399
2
Gas + Steam
1,695
6,511
3
Coal
120
4
Diesel
95
55
Total Reduction (%)
5,125
15,965
GWh = gigwatt-hour, MW = megawatt.
Source: Myanmar Ministry of Electricity and Energy (2018a).


221
Myanmar Country Report
2.   Modelling Assumptions
2.1.  GDP and Population Growth
In this publication, Myanmar’s GDP is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of around 
6.2% from 2015 to 2040, slowing from the 9.1% growth of 1990–2015. The population 
is assumed to increase by about 0.71% per year from 2015 to 2040. The assumption is 
based on data from the Ministry of Labour, Immigration and Population.
2.2.  Energy Consumption and Electricity Generation
Hydro and natural gas dominated electricity generation in Myanmar. Other fuels such as 
oil and coal also contributed to the country’s generation mix but was only less than 13% in 
total in 1990. The government’s plan is to increase further the share of natural gas, coal, 
hydro, and other renewables in the total generation mix and decrease oil share. Myanmar 
also has plans to export electricity to neighbouring countries, such as Thailand and China, 
from its hydropower plants.
Based on the yearly plan for the construction of power plants in 2018–2022 (Table 
12.2), majority of the projects are gas-based power plants, including liquefied natural gas 
(LNG). Others are hydro and solar power plants. The yearly plan excludes coal-based 
power plants, currently at 120 MW installed capacity.
In this masterplan, the shares between scenarios differ. The lowest is the Power Resource 
Balance scenario (Scenario 3), under which total installed capacity will reach 23,594 MW 
by 2030 with hydro share amounting to 38%; coal, 33%; gas, 20%; and the remaining which 
are renewables (solar, wind, etc.), 8%. Both installed capacity in the yearly plan and the 
power supply scenario 3 are included in the current outlook model under the Reference 
scenario.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Table 12.2: Yearly Plan for the Construction of Power Plant Projects (MW)
No
Project Name
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Total
1
Thahtone CCGT (World 
Bank)
118
 
 
 
 
 
2
MyinGyan CCGT 
(Sembcorp)
225
 
 
 
 
 
3
Minbu Solar (Green Earth)
 
40
40
40
50
 
4
Baelin Gas Engine (Rental)
 
135
 
 
 
 
5
MyinGyan Gas Engine
 
90
 
 
 
 
6
Myanaung Gas Engine 
(Japan Grant)
 
 
20
 
 
 
7
Pahtoelon CCGT (JICA)
 
 
12
 
 
 
8
Ahlon LNG to Power (Toyo 
Thai)
 
 
356
 
 
 
9
KyaukPhyu CCGT 
(Sinohydro)
 
 
135
 
 
 
10
MelaungGyaing (LNG) LNG 
to Power (Zhefu)
 
 
 
1390
 
 
11
Kanbauk LNG to Power 
(Total & Siemens)
 
 
 
820
410
 
12
Ywama (W.B.) (Gas)
 
 
 
150
75
 
13
Upper KyaingTaung (Hydro)
 
 
 
51
 
 
14
Upper Yeywa (Hydro)
 
 
 
280
 
 
15
Middle PaungLaung 
(Energize)
 
 
 
 
152
 
16
Dee Dote (Andritz)
 
 
 
 
60
 
Total
343
265
563
2731
747
4649
MW = megawatt.
Source: Department of Electric Power Planning, Myanmar Ministry of Electricity and Energy (2018b).
Table 12.3: Installed Capacity and Power Supply in Scenarios for 2030
No
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
(Domestic Energy Consumption)
(Least Cost)
(Power Resources 
Balance)
Energy Resources
Installed Capacity
Installed Capacity
Installed Capacity
(MW)
%
(MW)
%
(MW)
%
1
Hydro (large)
12,147
42
12147
43
1412
6
2
Hydro (small and medium)
6,891
24
6,891
24
7,484
32
3
Gas
4,986
17
2,484
9
4,758
20
4
Coal
2,760
10
5,030
18
7,940
34
5
Renewable
2,000
7
2,000
7
2,000
8
Total
28,784
28,552
23,594
MW = megawatt.
Source: Myanmar Energy Master Plan (2015).
The Energy Masterplan of Myanmar considers three scenarios (Table 12.3).


223
2.3.  Energy and Climate Change/Environmental Policies
Myanmar’s energy policy in general strives to maintain energy independence by increasing 
indigenous production of available primary energy resources through intensive exploration 
and development activities. It also addresses electric power as the main driving power 
source for economic development and the need to generate and distribute in terms of 
volume, density, and reliability. It also advocates the use of water resources, a renewable 
energy resource for generating electricity to save non-renewable sources of energy such 
as fossil fuels for alternative and future use. It also emphasises energy efficiency and 
conservation (EEC) to save energy through effective energy management and to reduce 
energy consumption to minimise harmful environmental impacts. It further encourages 
the use of new and renewable energy (NRE) sources, especially solar and wind which are 
abundant under Myanmar’s climatic condition. It also recognises that traditional energy 
sources, such as fuelwood and charcoal, still need to be used. Regulations and anticipatory 
actions are necessary for the sustained harvesting of this primary energy source.
Savings in Myanmar’s energy consumption can be attained through the implementation 
of energy efficiency programmes in all energy-consuming sectors. In the industry 
sector, energy savings of at least 14% from Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario levels are 
expected by 2020 from improved manufacturing technologies. In the residential and 
commercial (‘others’) sectors, efficient end-use technologies and energy management 
systems are also projected to induce significant savings. In the transport sector, efficiency 
improvements will be achieved by improved vehicle fuel economy and more effective 
traffic management.
Myanmar still lacks a national strategy and action plan for mitigating and adapting to climate 
change, but several ministries have been implementing sector-specific initiatives relevant 
to climate change. The government is encouraging the use of biofuel in the transport and 
agriculture sectors to reduce oil dependency and curb carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. 
These efforts are already in place, although the amount of biofuel used in the country 
is still small for the time being. The government, through the Ministry of Electricity and 
Energy, has initiated the Clean Fuel Programme to reduce CO2 emissions by increasing 
the use of natural gas in the industry sector for power generation. This includes converting 
gasoline, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vehicles to compressed natural gas 
vehicles.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation (MONREC), the 
designated national authority for clean development mechanism, has submitted one 
hydropower project to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 
for consideration. The National Environmental Conservation Committee was formed in 
2004 and re-formed in April 2011, replacing the National Commission for Environmental 
Affairs, and now serves as the focal organisation for environmental matters. It is chaired by 
MONREC, formerly the Ministry of Forestry, and its members  come from 19 ministries. 
The Environmental Conservation Law was enacted in March 2012. The law provides 
the legal basis for implementing a range of enhanced environmental management 
measures. Simultaneously, the draft Environmental Conservation Rule, which embodies 
regulations and technical guidelines and creates the enabling conditions for their effective 
implementation, is being drawn up and submitted to the authorised body.
2.4.  The National Efficiency Policy
The National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Policy, Strategy and Roadmap for 
Myanmar (ADB, 2015) mandates the following:
 
The National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Policy, Strategy and Roadmap 
for Myanmar 2015 was supported by the Asian Development Bank and the Japan 
Fund for Poverty Reduction. Based on the calculated potential energy savings, the 
National Energy Efficiency Policy targets the following objectives by 2020, using 2012 
as a baseline: (i) to reduce national electricity demand by 12%, (ii) to reduce biomass 
consumption by 2.3%, and (iii) to reduce national carbon dioxide emissions by 78,690 
tonnes. To reach the overall energy efficiency objective, it is necessary to develop a 
strategy to save energy for all important energy-intensive sectors such as the industry, 
transport, commercial, and residential sectors.
Specifically, the following strategies could achieve the goals:
For the residential sector: (i) introduction of energy efficiency performance standards 
and labelling for appliances, (ii) establishment of testing and certification facilities for 
appliances, (iii) introduction of incentives for energy-efficient equipment, (iv) phasing 
out of inefficient appliances from the market, (v) promotion of efficient biomass cook 
stoves, (vi) increasing consumer awareness on the benefits of LPG for cooking, (vii) 
introduction of energy efficiency labelling scheme for LPG cook stoves, and (viii) conduct 
of regular energy efficiency awareness campaigns in national media.


225
For the commercial sector: (i) conduct of energy audits; (ii) formulation of energy 
performance standards (for appliances); (iii) incorporation of energy efficiency in new 
building design, energy building code, and refurbishments; and (iv) preparation of energy 
efficiency guidelines for commercial buildings.
Action Plan 2018–2021 provides for a step-by-step implementation of activities to 
harmonise energy efficiency performance standards for air conditioning and lighting.
In addition, the following measures are considered important in achieving the goals:
• 
Residential: high efficiency lighting and refrigeration, LPG cooking  
• 
Industry: cogeneration, energy efficiency (boiler, kilns, motor), waste heat recovery
• 
Commercial: high efficiency lighting and air conditioning, LPG cooking, solar water 
heating, standard labelling equipment of appliances, LED
2.5. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions/Nationally 
 
 
Determined Contributions (INDC/NDC) 
Mitigation actions and policies in the energy sector:
• 
Energy – 30% renewable in rural electrification (mini hydropower; biomass; solar, 
wind, and solar mini-grid technologies)
• 
Clean cooking and heating – distribute approximately 260,000 energy-efficient 
cooking stoves between 2016 and 2031
• 
Renewable energy (hydropower) – 9.4 GW hydroelectric generation by 2030
• 
Energy efficiency – 20% electricity-saving potential of the total forecast electricity 
consumption by 2030.
Government plans to achieve by 2030 a 27% share of renewable energy to the national 
energy mix. To fulfil this goal, the share of these four types of renewable energy sources 
should be allocated as follows: hydropower (1.3%), solar (on-grid, 17.8%) (off-gird, 3.7%), 
biomass (1%), bio-gasification (0.02%), and biofuel (5%).This higher share of renewable 
targets in the energy mix could be achieved if the government has clear policy support 
to scale up renewables such as feed-in-tariff or any other policy to attract investment in 
renewable power generation. 
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2.6.  Alternative Policy Scenarios 
In previous studies, two scenarios were formulated to analyse the impact of policy 
interventions to the energy sector. The BAU scenario serves as the reference case to 
project energy demand and CO2 emissions, and the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), to 
evaluate the impacts of policy interventions in the development and utilisation of energy 
resources in the country. The APS as such can include policies to increase EEC targets, 
expedite penetration of NRE and introduction of cleaner technology, including options for 
a nuclear power plant. To understand further the impact of individual policy interventions, 
this year’s study formulated five APSs as follows:
• 
APS1 –  Improved energy efficiency of final energy demand
• 
APS2 –  Higher efficiency of thermal electricity generation  
• 
APS3 –  Higher contribution of NRE (here, NRE for electricity generation and biofuels 
in the transport sector are assumed) 
• 
APS4 –  Introduction or higher contribution of nuclear energy 
• 
APS5 –  Combined impact of scenarios APS1 to APS4  
Myanmar does not have an existing plan to introduce nuclear energy for power generation. 
As such, APS4 has not been considered in the analysis. Thus,  APS5 would consist only of 
APS1, APS2, and APS3.
APS3 includes more renewables in the power generation mix of Myanmar. As such, for 
APS3, the additional installed capacity for coal-based and gas-based power plant for 
2030 is replaced by renewable energy capacity, including hydro plants.
Beside the APS, this 2018 study also considers the emissions plan and target of East Asia 
Summit member countries under the INDC/NDC of the energy sector. 
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario
Final Energy Consumption
The total final energy consumption in Myanmar increased by about 2.6% per year, from 
9.4 Mtoe in 1990 to 17.73 Mtoe in 2015.The transport sector was the fastest-growing 
sector with an average annual growth of 8.6% in 1990–2015. Consequently, the share of 


227
this sector in the total final energy demand increased from around 4.7% in 1990 to almost 
19.9% in 2015. The industry sector was the second-fastest growing sector with an AAGR 
of 7.1% over the same period; the share of this sector in the total final energy demand 
increased from 4.2% in 1990 to 12.3% in 2015.
The ‘others’ sector, which comprises the commercial, residential, and agriculture sectors, 
was the major contributor to total final energy consumption. The shares of this sector, 
however, has been declining from 90.1% in 1990 to 66.3% in 2015. This indicates that the 
annual growth of demand for this sector was slower than that of the industry and transport 
sectors. The AAGR of the demand of the ‘others’ sector was 1.3% in 1990–2015. Non-
energy consumption grew gradually at an average annual rate of 4.2% over the same 
period, from almost 0.09 Mtoe in 1990 to 0.27 Mtoe in 2015. Although the share of this 
sector demand was only 1.0% in 1990, it increased slightly to 1.5% in 2015.
Using the socio-economic assumptions stated above, final energy demand in Myanmar is 
projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.8% under the BAU scenario, reaching 35.29 Mtoe 
in 2040. The transport sector will still experience the fastest growth in final energy demand 
in 2015–2040. Its growth rate, however, is lower than that of 1990–2015. Final energy 
demand of the transport sector will increase at an average rate of 5.3% per year while that 
of the industry sector will grow at 4.8% per year. Final energy demand of the ‘others’ sector 
(mainly the residential and commercial sectors) is projected to grow at an annual average 
rate of 0.9%, slower than in the past. This is mainly because of the reduction in biomass 
demand, which represents majority of the fuel consumed by the sector. Figure 12.1 shows 
the final energy demand by sector to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Figure 12.1: Final Energy Demand by Sector, BAU (1990-2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Others
Industry
Transport
Non-energy
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The growth of the respective sectors under BAU will result in a continuous increase of the 
transport, industry, and non-energy sector shares in the total final energy demand and a 
decline in the share of the ‘others’ sector. The share of the transport, industry, and non-
energy sectors is projected to increase to 36.4%, 19.9 %, and 2.0%, respectively, in 2040. 
That of the ‘others’ sector will decline to around 41.7% from 66.3 % in 2015.
By fuel type, others, which are mostly biomass, were the most consumed fuel in 1990 with 
a share of 89.2% in the country’s total final energy demand. Its share decreased to 56.8% in 
2015 due to the higher growth of other fuels. The demand of natural gas increased from 
0.23 Mtoe in 1990 to 0.71 Mtoe in 2015 while that for oil increased from 0.59 Mtoe to 
5.43 Mtoe over the same period. Oil demand grew the fastest at an average rate of 9.3% 
per year in 1990–2015.
Under the BAU scenario, the share of other fuels will decline to 31.7% in 2040, indicating 
that its future use will grow slower than the other fuels. In contrast, oil share will continue 
to increase and will reach 44.9% in 2040 from 30.6% in 2015 with an average growth of 
4.4% per year. This is due to the rapid increase of transport sector activities in 2015-2040. 
Figure 12.2 shows the final energy demand by fuel type to 2040 under the BAU scenario.
Coal is projected to have an AAGR of 3.2% in 2015–2040, still slower than natural gas 
(5.2%). Electricity demand will still grow the fastest at an AAGR of 6% per year during the 
same period. Its share will increase from 6.5% in 2015 to 14.0% in 2040.
Figure 12.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990-2040)
Mtoe
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Electricity
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Others


229
Figure 12.3: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU (1990-2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Others
Myanmar Country Report
Primary Energy Consumption
The primary energy consumption in Myanmar grew at an average annual rate of 2.5%, 
from 10.68 Mtoe in 1990 to 19.85 Mtoe in 2015 (Figure 12.3). Amongst the major 
energy sources, hydro and oil grew the fastest, with AAGRs of 8.6% and 8.4%, respectively. 
Natural gas consumption grew at an average annual rate of 5.8% over the same period. 
Coal consumption increased at 7.1% per year on the average over the same period. 
Others, such as biomass, dominate the primary energy consumption mix in 2015, with a 
50.9% share. Oil (27.6%) and natural gas (15.5%) had the next largest shares amongst the 
major fuels over the same period.
In the BAU scenario, Myanmar’s primary energy consumption is projected to increase at 
an annual average rate of 3% per year to 41.79 Mtoe in 2040. Hydro and natural gas are 
expected to grow at average annual rates of 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. Coal will grow 
fastest at 12.3% over the period 2015–2040. Oil will grow at 4.4% per year.
The share of oil and hydro in the total primary energy mix of Myanmar will increase to 
38.3% and 3.8%, respectively, in 2040. Coal share will also increase from 1.9% in 2015 
to 16.4% in 2040. Natural gas shares will increase to 13.8% over the projection period. 
Notably, the share of biomass will decrease due to its slow growth that is driven just by 
the growth of the rural population. From 50.9% in 2015, its share will decline to 27.6% in 
2040.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Power Generation
Hydro and natural gas dominated the power sector fuel mix in Myanmar (Figure 12.4). 
In 2015, the share of hydro in the power generation mix reached 58.9%, while that of 
natural gas was 40.8%. The remaining fuel (coal and oil) accounted for only 0.3% of the 
total generation mix.
Under the BAU scenario, oil-based power plants will cease operation by 2030 while hydro 
and natural gas still have shares in the power sector mix of Myanmar in 2040. The share, 
however, has changed. Hydro-based power plants will have a 29.1% share while that of 
natural gas will be 21.8%. 
The remaining fuel will have an increasing role in the future. Coal-based power generation 
share in the total fuel mix will increase to 42.2% in 2040, becoming the dominant power 
generation sector while other renewable shares (solar, wind, and biomass) will reach 6.8%.
Total electricity generation from the different plants will grow at an average annual rate of 
5.6% in 2015–2040, with natural gas–based power plants growing at an average annual 
rate of 3.0%. Hydropower generation will increase but at a slower average annual rate of 
2.7% during the same period. 
Figure 12.4: Power Generation Mix, BAU (1990-2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Study outcome.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Others


231
3.2.  Energy Savings Potential (APS)
The APS was analysed separately to determine the individual impacts of the policy 
interventions assumed in APS1, APS2, and APS3. The combination of all these policy 
interventions was further analysed in APS5. Figure 12.6 shows the changes in total primary 
energy consumption (TPEC) in all  scenarios.
Energy Intensity, Energy per Capita, and Energy Elasticity
Myanmar’s primary energy intensity (TPES/GDP) has been declining since 1990. In 
2015, the primary energy intensity was 281 toe/million 2010 US$, lower than what it was 
in 1990 which was 1,333 toe/million 2010 US$. The intensity is projected to continue to 
decrease to 132 toe/million 2010 US$ by 2040 at an average rate of 3% per year. Energy 
consumption per capita grew from 0.3 toe in 1990 to 0.4 toe in 2015 and will increase to 
0.67 toe by 2040, at an AAGR of 2.3%. CO2 intensity was 140t-C/million 2010 US$ in 
1990 and decreased to 93t-C/million 2010 US$ in 2015. CO2 intensity is projected to 
continue to decrease to 74 t-C/million 2010 US$ in 2040 at an AAGR of 0.9%. Figure 
12.5 shows the evolution of these energy indicators from 1990 to 2040.
CO2 = carbon dioxide.
Source: Study outcome.
Figure 12.5: Energy Intensity, CO2 Intensity, and Energy per Capita (1990–2040)
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1990 = 100
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 12.6: Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Mtoe
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Others
Figure 12.6 shows that APS5 has the largest reduction in the TPEC due to the 
implementation of EEC action plans, improvement of thermal efficiency of fossil-fuelled 
power plants, and higher penetration of NRE in the country’s supply mix. The AAGR 
of the TPEC under APS5 will be around 2.1% over the projection period. In 2040, the 
reduction of primary energy consumption in APS5 compared to the BAU scenario will 
be 8.64 Mtoe or 20.7%. Individually, implementation of energy efficiency targets and 
masterplan as defined in APS1 will reduce the TPEC of Myanmar by 5.49 Mtoe or 13.1% 
in 2040 compared to the BAU scenario. The AAGR of primary energy consumption in 
APS1 will be 2.4%, slightly higher than APS5. APS2, which assumes higher efficiency in 
thermal electricity generation, will reduce the TPES by 1.53 Mtoe or 3.7% compared to 
the BAU scenario. The country’s TPES under APS2 will grow at an annual average rate 
of 2.9%, slightly slower than the BAU scenario. Since no final energy demand efficiency 
measures were assumed for APS2, the impact on primary energy supply will be lower than 
APS1 or APS5. Of all the fossil fuels considered, implementation of this higher efficiency 
in thermal power generation policy intervention will reduce the use of coal and natural gas 
for power generation. A highly efficient  power generation could lead to higher reduction 
in coal use by almost 14% in 2040. 
If a policy for higher penetration of NRE is implemented, then the TPEC will decrease, 
compared to the BAU scenario, by 2.63 Mtoe or 6.3%. By fuel type, coal consumption will 
decrease but the use of renewable energy will increase by 12% (1.60 Mtoe).


233
The impact of implementing policy interventions will also be reflected in the power 
generation of the country. Figure 12.7 shows  total electricity generation in 2040 in all 
scenarios. In both APS1 and APS5, due to lower electricity demand, power generation will 
be reduced by 11.47 Mtoe or 20% compared to the BAU scenario. The reduction in power 
generation will be from natural gas, coal, and hydro plants; highest reduction will be in coal 
power plants (5.32 Mtoe in APS1 and 26.1 Mtoe in APS5).
Under APS2 and APS3, the total amount of electricity generated will be similar to the 
BAU scenario because no efficiency measures were imposed on the final sector. The 
differences, however, lie in the fuel mix for power generation under APS3. More ‘others’ 
renewable power plants such as solar, wind, biomass, etc. will be in operation over 
the projection period, replacing coal-based power plants, which are supposed to be in 
operation up to 2040.
Figure 12.7: Comparison of Scenarios of Electricity Generation in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Study outcome.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
TWh
Hydro
Natural Gas
Coal
Others
In terms of CO2 emissions reduction, the energy efficiency assumption in APS5 is expected 
to reduce emissions at the largest by around 8.9 million metric tons of carbon (Mt-C) 
or 38% lower than the BAU scenario. The decrease in CO2 indicates that the energy-
saving goals, action plans, and policies in the promotion of programmes, and switching 
to less carbon-intensive technologies such as renewable sources in the supply mix will be 
effective in reducing CO2 emissions. Figure 12.8 shows the projected CO2 emissions in 
2040 in all scenarios.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 12.8: Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions in 2040
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Study outcome.
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
25
20
15
10
5
0
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Million Tons of Carbon
In APS1, total final energy demand will be lower so that CO2 emissions from energy 
consumption will also be lower, reaching 19.50 Mt-C. This is a reduction of CO2 emissions 
by around 3.9 Mt-C, which is about 17% lower than the BAU scenario. In APS3, higher 
contributions from renewable energy could reduce emissions by 21% compared to the 
BAU scenario. Total CO2 emissions under APS3 will be around 18.6 Mt-C. The decrease 
in CO2 indicates that increasing renewable energy shares in the total supply will reduce 
further CO2 emissions.
3.2.1  Final energy consumption in the APS
In APS5, the growth in final energy demand is projected to grow at a lower average annual 
rate of 2.3% compared to the 2.8% annual growth in the BAU scenario. The reason for the 
slower growth rate is the result of technological improvement in manufacturing processes 
and the reduction of final energy demand of electricity and oil in the residential and 
commercial (‘others’) sectors. Figure 12.9 shows the differences in final energy demand 
in 2040 by sector in the BAU scenario and the APS.


235
Primary Energy Supply
In the APS, Myanmar’s primary energy supply is projected to increase at a slightly lower 
rate than the BAU scenario’s at 2.1% per year, from 19.85 Mtoe in 2015 to 33.15 Mtoe 
in 2040. Hydro will be the fastest growing at 4.3% per year, followed by oil at 3.7% per 
year in 2015–2040. Coal is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.1% over the 
same period and natural gas, at 1.9% per year. Figure 12.10 shows the primary energy 
consumption by source in 2040 under the BAU scenario and the APS.
Figure 12.9: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015–2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–14.6%
–8.6%
0.0%
–15.9%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 12.10: Primary Energy Supply by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–14.3%
–15.2%
–88.3%
4.4%
Projected Energy Savings
In Myanmar, commercial energy consumption is projected based on the energy 
requirements of the major sectors (industry, transport, agriculture, and households). 
The choice of fuel type is determined by available supply, since energy demand must be 
met mainly by domestic sources. Obviously, there is a gap between demand and supply, 
but the demand is much higher than the actual requirement. Due to these constraints, 
coefficients, derived by time series regression, have been applied to allocate energy. These 
allocations are made according to the priority of state organisations and enterprises. For 
the private sector, allocations are made according to the registered licensed capacity of 
the firm.
Future savings in energy could be due to savings in primary energy consumption in the 
residential, commercial, transport, and industry sectors. In this regard, Myanmar has 
implemented a range of EEC goals and action plans which target energy savings in all 
sectors of the economy and in cooperation with the private and the public sectors. There 
is an estimated saving of 8.64 Mtoe in 2040 in the APS relative to the BAU scenario. 
This is equivalent to 20.7% saving of the primary energy consumption in 2040 of the BAU 
scenario (Figure 12.11). Myanmar has plans to decrease the growth in primary energy 
consumption by implementing a range of EEC measures on the demand side.


237
CO2 Reduction Potential
In the APS, the energy efficiency policy of Myanmar is projected to reduce growth in CO2 
emissions from energy consumption. In 2040, in the APS, CO2 emissions from energy 
consumption are projected to reach about 14.4 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) which is 
about 38% below the the BAU scenario level (Figure 12.12).
Figure 12.11: Evolution of Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual scenario, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
25
20
15
10
5
0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS 
8.64Mtoe,-20.7%
Figure 12.12: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, 
BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Study outcome.
25
20
15
10
5
0
Million Tons of Carbon
BAU
2015
2040
APS 
8.95Mtoe,-38.3%
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3.3.  Intended Nationally Determined Contributions/Nationally 
 
 
 Determined Contributions 
The current energy outlook model considered the Mitigation Actions and Policies of 
Myanmar in the Energy Sector as specified above in section 2.5 on INDC/NDC. These are 
the 20% electricity saving potential by 2030 and the 9.4 GW hydroelectricity generation 
by 2030. The 30% renewable in rural electrification (mini hydropower; biomass; solar, 
wind, and solar mini-grid technologies) is considered in the share of renewable in the total 
power supply mix of Myanmar.
The energy sector mitigation actions and policies are represented in the APS scenario 
since the scenario includes:
• 
Energy savings (APS1) in the different final sectors (industry, transport, residential, 
commercial, and others) as a result of introducing more efficient technologies. The 
assumptions were:
− 
Electricity: 20% reduction of demand compared to the BAU scenario 
− 
Oil: 15% saving from the BAU scenario
− 
Others (biomass): 5% reduction compared to the BAU scenario 
• 
Introduction of highly efficient technologies for fossil fuel use in the power sector 
(APS2)
• 
Increasing renewable energy share in the electricity-generating capacity (APS3):
− 
Hydro-installed capacity of 9.4 GW by 2030 (including mini- and micro-hydro)
− 
Other renewables such as wind, solar, and biomass with total capacity of 3 GW 
by 2030.
Electricity demand reached 36 TWh in 2030 under the BAU scenario. Under the APS, 
electricity demand was expected to be reduced by 20%  compared to the BAU scenario. As 
a result, electricity demand in the APS will be only 29 TWh in 2030. The electricity saving 
of 20% has been assumed to continue to 2040 as no additional target is available after 
2030. Figure 12.13 shows the electricity demand of the final sectors over the projection 
period. ‘Others’ comprises the residential, commercial, agriculture, construction, and 
other sectors. Electricity demand in the transport sector has been excluded in the current 
outlook.


239
Figure 12.13: Electricity Demand, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Sources: Study outcome.
Other Sectors
Industry
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
TWh
2015
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
BAU
APS
-6.0%
-13.0%
-20.0%
-20.0%
-20.0%
The APS generation capacity will be more towards renewable energy compared to the 
BAU scenario (Figure 12.14). As explained earlier in the modelling assumption, the APS 
excludes some of the additional capacity for the coal-based and natural gas capacity 
after 2025. More capacity will be made available from renewable energy sources. Hydro 
resources will reach the 9.4 GW capacity by 2030 as stipulated in the mitigation actions 
and policies for the energy sector of Myanmar. These include not only the large hydro but 
also the mini- and micro-hydro plants. Hydro share reached 52% under the APS compared 
to 38% under the BAU scenario while other renewable sources such as solar, wind, and 
biomass will also have increasing share compared to the BAU scenario (22% compared to 
8%).
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Considering lower final energy demand and more renewable share under the APS, the 
impact of the APS to the environment would be a lower CO2 emissions. The total CO2 
emissions under the BAU scenario in 2030 will be 55.2 Mt-CO2e (or 15.1 Mt-C). Under 
the APS, CO2 emissions will be around 36.4 Mt-CO2e (or 9.9 Mt-C) in 2030. This is a 
reduction of CO2 emissions by 18.8 Mt-CO2e (or 5.1 Mt-C) compared to the BAU 
scenario, which is approximately around 34%.
As previously shown, the CO2 emission reductions in the APS will be 38% by 2040, which 
is around 32.8 Mt-CO2e (or 8.9 Mt-C).
4. 
  Conclusions and Policy Implications
Although energy intensity will decline, energy consumption will still increase due to 
economic, population, and vehicle growth. Myanmar should increase adoption of energy-
efficient technologies to mitigate growth in energy consumption; it should also diversify 
energy availability. The energy-saving programme will target the residential, commercial, 
transport, and industry sectors.
The current energy supply has been kept below its potential due to the scarcity of technical 
and financial resources needed first to reverse the decline and then to accelerate natural 
gas and oil development and production.
Figure 12.14: Power Generation Capacity in 2030, BAU and APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual scenario, ORNW = other renewable sources.
Source: Study outcome.
Hydro
Gas
Coal
ORNW
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
BAU
APS
34%
20%
38%
8%
22%
52%
20%
6%
%


241
The country has been experiencing serious energy shortages, which will become more 
acute in the absence of further energy sector investment. First, there should be more 
aggressive exploration of the upstream energy sector and more financial and technical 
assistance in each energy subsector to secure the national energy supply.
To increase electricity production, Myanmar should rehabilitate existing electricity 
transmission and distribution, expand rural electrification, build coal- or gas-fired power 
plants, and promote renewable energy in the country’s fuel mix as secure energy sources. 
The framework should list all potential renewable energy projects in the area, outlining 
priorities and sequencing, along with funding requirements which would be based on 
completed studies.
In this regard, the following actions are proposed to be considered:
• 
The Ministry of Electricity and Energy should formulate an integrated national energy 
policy, including on energy efficiency. 
• 
Adopt a coordination mechanism and institutional arrangement and legal framework. 
• 
Improve energy statistics for better analysis of energy saving potential in Myanmar.
• 
Conduct a demand-side survey for energy consumption, which can be done by 
combining this survey with existing ones.
• 
Due to the continuous dominance of the transport sector in final energy consumption, 
set an energy efficiency target for the transport sector in addition to those that have 
been calculated for the industry, commercial, and household sectors.
• 
Create a detailed policy mechanism for the renewable energy sector to implement 
potential programmes and projects. This mechanism should be developed and 
planned in conjunction with external stakeholders, who offer experiences, advanced 
technologies, new markets, and investment. 
• 
Improve energy management practices of the industrial and commercial sectors.
• 
Establish a dedicated energy efficiency body to oversee the energy efficiency 
programme of Myanmar.
• 
Refine the current energy efficiency target to include the numerical targets and 
detailed action plans of all sectors.
• 
Establish a comprehensive integrated energy plan to guide the development of 
the sector, including an energy efficiency labelling programme for energy service 
companies and appliances.
• 
Since the electrification rate is still low, formulate schemes to enhance private 
participation, including foreign companies, to accelerate power sector development, 
including transmission and distribution system to ensure reliable electricity supply to 
the consumers.
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• 
The Ministry of Industry should set specific targets for each sector on energy efficiency 
and government should implement to achieve these targets.
• 
Consider the import of LNG in floating terminals in the short term to meet the 
projected rapid growth of electricity demand while exploration of new domestic 
natural gas resources is still being undertaken.
• 
Consider civilian nuclear energy policy and exploration of geothermal energy potential 
to generate electricity.
• 
Remove taxes in LPG and kerosene to reduce biomass consumption, which is 
increasing continuously, in the residential sector.
• 
Encourage private companies to invest in new refinery capacities to meet domestic 
petroleum products demand.
References
ADB (2015), TA 8356-MYA Final Report: National Energy Efficiency and Conservation 
Policy, Strategy and Roadmap for Myanmar, Manila: ADB.
Government of Myanmar, National Energy Management Committee (2015), Myanmar 
Energy Master Plan. Nay Pyi Taw.
Myanmar Ministry of Electricity and Energy (2018a), Database of Oil and Gas Planning 
Department, Nay Pyi Taw.
Myanmar Ministry of Electricity and Energy (2018b), Database of Oil and Gas Planning 
Department. Data obtained from the Department of Electric Power Planning, Nay Pyi 
Taw.


243
NEW ZEALAND COUNTRY REPORT
Hien Dieu Thi Dang, Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, 
New Zealand
Seiya Endo, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
1.   Background
New Zealand is an island country in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. It is located some 
1,500 kilometres (km) east of Australia and consists of three main islands (the North 
Island, the South Island, and Stewart Island), and several smaller, mostly uninhabited 
outer islands. The land area is approximately 269,000 km2, making it smaller than Japan 
or Italy, but larger than the United Kingdom. Most of New Zealand is hilly or mountainous 
and has a mild temperate climate. The population was about 4.6 million at the end of 
2015. Although there are some light and heavy industries, foreign trade is heavily 
dependent on agriculture, tourism, forestry, and fishing. In 2015, New Zealand had a 
nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of about US$169.1 billion, or about US$36,800 
per capita. Although the latter figure is near the average of countries of the Organisation 
for Economic Co-operation and Development, New Zealand tends to be ranked highly in 
international quality-of-life surveys.
The country possesses significant indigenous energy resources, including hydro, 
geothermal, wind, natural gas, and coal. New Zealand is self-sufficient in natural gas and 
electricity and is a net exporter of coal. It has locally produced crude oil, which is generally 
exported because of its high quality and, therefore, has a high value on the international 
market. To meet its oil demand, over half of all imported oil to New Zealand in 2015 was 
produced in the Middle East. Remaining energy reserves as of 1 January 2018 include 
71.1 million barrels of oil (2P1) and 50.1 billion cubic metres of natural gas, as well as 
in-ground resources of over 15 billion tons of coal, 80% of which are South Island lignite.
 
CHAPTER 13
1 
2P values may be totalled safely using arithmetic summation since they are the midpoint of the probability 
distribution.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
In 2015, New Zealand’s total primary energy supply (TPES) was around 20.6 million 
tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe). By source, oil represented the largest share at about 33%. 
Natural gas and geothermal energy were second largest, contributing around 20% and 
24%, respectively. The remainder of the primary energy supply were hydro (10%), coal 
(7%), biomass (5%), and a smaller percentage of other renewables such as wind, solar 
photovoltaic (PV), and biofuels.
Final energy consumption was about 14.1 Mtoe in 2015. By sector, transport accounted 
for the largest share at around 34% because New Zealand heavily depends on private road 
vehicles, road freight, and air transport. The share of the industry sector was the second 
largest at about 31%, whereas the total of agricultural, residential, and commercial sectors 
was 25%. The non-energy sector consumes the balance of 10%.
Total gross power generation output in 2015 was about 44.2 terawatt-hours (TWh). Hydro 
accounted for about 56% as the most utilised source, whereas geothermal represented 
the second most utilised source at about 18%, followed by natural gas (15%), coal (4%), 
and other renewables (7%). Oil is used in electricity generation only as a minor source for 
peaking and emergency supply (IEA, 2017).
2.   Modelling Assumptions
In this outlook, New Zealand’s GDP is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 2% 
between 2015 and 2040. Its population will increase by about 19% to 5.5 million by 2040, 
from 4.6 million in 2015 (Figure 13.1).
In the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, hydro use in power generation will remain 
constant, as most hydro sites have already been developed. Generation from natural 
gas-based plants is projected to increase slightly, at an annual average rate of 1.1%. 
Geothermal power generation will increase at an average annual growth rate of 2.6% and 
wind generation will continue to grow, but it will contribute only a small share of New 
Zealand’s electricity by 2040. In contrast, coal-fired power generation will disappear 
(Figure 13.2). Thermal efficiency of gas- and oil-fired power plants may not increase so 
much in the future because new large fossil fuel–based plants are not planned. Moreover, 
Genesis Energy (New Zealand’s largest energy company) has decided to decommission 
its coal-fired power plants by 2023.


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New Zealand Country Report
In terms of primary energy consumption, the overall energy intensity of the economy 
improved in real terms at an annual average rate of 0.9% in 1990–2015.
Figure 13.1: GDP and Population (1990–2040)
GDP = gross domestic product at 2010 constant prices.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Population
GDP
billion 2010 US$
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
million persons
Figure 13.2: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
TWh
1990
Coal
Oil
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The government implemented an emissions trading scheme in 2010 and is currently 
reviewing that scheme to determine how it can best support the country in meeting its 
climate change targets and transitioning to a low-emissions economy. New Zealand, 
through its Energy and Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategies, has also set a target 
for 90% of electricity to be generated from renewable sources by 2025. The government 
also maintains a range of programmes to promote energy efficiency at home, at work, 
and in transport, as well as the development and deployment of sustainable energy 
technologies.
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Final Energy Consumption
New Zealand’s final energy consumption grew by 1.5% per year from 9.7 Mtoe in 1990 
to 14.1 Mtoe in 2015. During the same period, oil increased from 4.0 Mtoe to 6.2 Mtoe; 
electricity, from 2.4 Mtoe to 3.4 Mtoe; and natural gas, from 1.8 Mtoe to 2.7 Mtoe. On 
the other hand, coal declined from 0.7 Mtoe to 0.6 Mtoe.
 
3.1.1. 
 Business-As-Usual scenario 
In the BAU scenario, final energy consumption in 2015–2040 is projected to grow by 0.6 
Mtoe at an average rate of 0.2% per year. The ‘others’ sector (agricultural, residential, and 
commercial) will have the largest increase of 0.6 Mtoe during this period, growing at an 
average annual rate of 0.6%. Transport sector consumption is projected to decrease by 0.1 
Mtoe at an annual rate of 0.1%, but that of the industry sector is projected to increase by 
0.2 Mtoe in 2040. Non-energy sector consumption will remain constant in 2015–2040 
(Figure 13.3).


247
Figure 13.3: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Note: The ‘others’ sector includes the agricultural, residential, and commercial sectors.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
2
4
Mtoe
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
By source, final demand of electricity will steadily increase by 1.0 Mtoe between 2015 
and 2040 at an average rate of 1.1% per year. Final demand of other renewable energy 
– which includes geothermal, solar, biogas, and woody biomass used for direct-use heat 
applications – will increase slightly in 2015–2040 at an average rate of 0.1% per year. 
By 2040, final demand for oil will decrease by 0.3 Mtoe at an average rate of 0.2%; coal 
demand, by 0.1 Mtoe at an average rate of 0.4%; and natural gas, by 0.1 Mtoe at an average 
rate of 0.1% per year (Figure 13.4).
Figure 13.4: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Note: The ‘others’ sector includes geothermal, solar, biogas, and woody biomass.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
2
4
Mtoe
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
New Zealand Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.1.2. 
 Alternative Policy Scenario 
In the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), final energy consumption will be slightly lower 
at 0.9 Mtoe between 2015 and 2040. Energy use in the ‘others’ sector will increase at 
an average rate of 0.2% per year, reflecting increasing use of efficient appliances in the 
residential and commercial sectors. Energy use in the industry sector is projected to 
decrease at an annual average rate of 0.2%. Energy use in the transport sector will decrease 
slightly, reflecting a shift to more energy-efficient vehicles, particularly electric vehicles. 
The sectoral final energy consumption in 2015 and 2040 in the BAU scenario and the 
APS is shown in Figure 13.5.
3.2.  Primary Energy Supply
Primary energy supply in New Zealand grew at a rate of 1.9% per year, from 12.8 Mtoe in 
1990 to 20.6 Mtoe in 2015. The fastest-growing primary fuel in absolute terms was oil, 
rising from 3.5 Mtoe in 1990 to 6.8 Mtoe in 2015. The increase in oil consumption was 
due to the rapid growth in transport energy demand.
Figure 13.5: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Mtoe
5.0
6.0
3.0
4.0
1.0
2.0
0.0
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Source: Authors’ calculations.
–18.1%
–8.5%
0.0%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–7.3%


249
Between 1990 and 2015, natural gas and coal consumption increased at an annual 
average rate of 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively. Geothermal energy use grew from 1.5 Mtoe 
in 1990 to 4.9 Mtoe in 2015 at an annual rate of 4.9% for electricity generation, while 
hydro demand for electricity production slightly increased from 2.0 Mtoe in 1990 to 2.1 
Mtoe in 2015. ‘Other’ energy sources, which include biomass, solar, wind, liquid biofuels, 
and biogas, increased by 2.3% per year.
3.2.1. 
Business-As-Usual scenario
In the BAU scenario, New Zealand’s primary energy supply will grow at an average 
annual rate of 0.7% to 24.6 Mtoe in 2040 from 20.6 Mtoe in 2015. Geothermal energy is 
projected to contribute most to the incremental growth of primary energy supply between 
2015 and 2040 and will account for 37% of total primary energy supply in 2040. Primary 
energy of ‘others’ will grow by 1% per year, reflecting mainly the expected growth in wind 
power. The share of ‘others’ will account for 7.4% of total primary energy supply in 2040. 
In contrast, primary fossil fuel will slightly decrease at an average rate of 0.2%.  Its share of 
the total will account for 46.7% in 2040, down from 59.3% in 2015. The remaining 8.9% 
of the total share in 2040 will be hydro for electricity generation, increasing at an average 
annual growth rate of 0.2% (Figure 13.6).
Figure 13.6: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
5
10
15
20
Mtoe
25
30
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
New Zealand Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The lower growth of primary energy supply relative to GDP growth will result in lower 
energy intensity in the future. From 122 toe/million US$ in 2015, energy intensity will 
improve to 89 toe/million US$ in 2040. Primary energy supply per capita will remain 
constant at 4.5 toe per person in 2015–2040. Figure 13.7 shows primary energy intensity 
and energy per capita as indicators.
3.2.1. 
 Alternative Policy Scenario (APS)
In the APS, primary energy supply is projected to grow at a lower rate of 0.5% per year to 
23.2 Mtoe in 2040. Coal, oil, and gas are expected to show significant declines of 3.2%, 
1.0%, and 0.7% per year, respectively. Geothermal primary energy is expected to grow 
by 2.9% per year. ‘Others’ primary energy, which includes biomass, solar, wind, liquid 
biofuels, and biogas, is expected to grow by 1.3% per year (Figure 13.8).
BAU = Business-As-Usual, GDP = gross domestic product, toe = tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
Figure 13.7: Primary Energy Intensity and Energy per Capita Indicator,
BAU (1990–2040)
0
50
100
150
200
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
toe/ million 2010 $US
toe/ person
0
1
2
3
4
5
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 US Dollars)
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)


251
Mtoe
Figure 13.8: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Note: The ‘others’ sector includes biomass, solar, wind, liquid biofuels, biogas, hydro, and geothermal.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
0
20
30
10
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
522.1%
–7.0%
–19.3%
–21.5%
3.3.  Projected Energy Savings
Under the APS, energy savings could amount to 1.35 Mtoe or 5.5% less than under the 
BAU scenario in 2040. Energy savings is the difference between the primary energy supply 
in the BAU scenario and the APS (Figure 13.9).
Figure 13.9: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS 
(1990, 2015, and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
Mtoe
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
1.35Mtoe,-5.5%
New Zealand Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The above savings in primary energy are mainly due to a switch to more efficient vehicles, 
particularly electric vehicles, in the transport sector, along with improved insulation and 
more efficient appliances in the residential and commercial sectors.
3.4.  Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the BAU scenario will decrease slightly, from 8.8 
million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 7.9 Mt-C in 2040. In the APS, CO2 emissions 
will decrease from 2015 to 2040 by 1.4% per year. The decrease reflects the switch to 
renewable energy in electricity generation, and the switch to electric vehicles in the 
transport sector. Figure 13.10 shows the difference of CO2 emissions from energy 
consumption between the BAU scenario and the APS in 2040, compared with 1990 and 
2015, in New Zealand.
4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
Although New Zealand’s primary energy intensity (energy per dollar of GDP) has been 
declining since 1990, energy use has continued to grow steadily, reflecting economic 
growth, population growth, and increasing numbers of private road vehicles.
Figure 13.10: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, BAU and APS 
(1990, 2015, and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Authors’ calculations.
Million Tons of Carbon
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
1.7Mt-C,-21.4%


253
New Zealand generates a high proportion of its electricity from renewable sources, 
particularly hydro, although CO2 emissions from this sector have grown with large 
investment in fossil fuel–based generation in the 1990s and 2000s.
Trading of carbon credits will incentivise investment into new renewable generation 
technologies, with geothermal and wind as prospective options, provided CO2 trading 
prices rise above the current levels. As the Acting Minister of Energy and Resources 
announced on 30 August 2011, New Zealand’s ambitious goal is for 90% of electricity 
generation to be from renewable sources by 2025. New Zealand’s large base of renewable 
generation, however, limits the room for CO2 emissions reduction in the electricity 
generation sector. In March 2016, the minister announced that the targets will be 
developed and the New Zealand Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy (NZEECS) 
2011–2016 will be replaced by mid-2019. The NZEECS’s successor will have a carbon 
reduction focus.
New Zealand has some other opportunities to improve energy efficiency, for example, 
through improving the efficiency of vehicles, improving the insulation of buildings, and 
improving the efficiency of heat production in industry, or switching to lower-carbon fuels.
The largest potential energy and carbon savings are in the transport sector. Growth in 
energy consumption in the transport sector has been slowing in recent years, mainly 
because of high fuel prices and a shift to smaller vehicles. Furthermore, reduction in 
emissions from the transport sector is possible through a switch to electric vehicles and 
increased use of biofuels. Electric vehicles are a good match for New Zealand, given the 
high proportion of electricity generated from renewables and the relatively short distances 
of average trips. Also, charging infrastructure already exists in most residential dwellings. 
In early 2018, the government  announced a package of measures designed to encourage 
the use of electric vehicles. The target is to double the number of electric vehicles every 
year through to 2021 and to do so by removing barriers that have until now prevented 
households and businesses from choosing electric cars. Current barriers include the 
limited selection of models available, a lack of widespread public charging infrastructure, 
and lack of awareness about electric vehicles.
In the building sector, the government should consider formulating and implementing 
stronger regulations to enhance the energy efficiency of new and existing buildings in 
the residential and commercial sectors. New Zealand should also consider a package of 
measures (including regulatory instruments) to improve the energy efficiency of industrial 
heat plants.
New Zealand Country Report


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
References
International Energy Agency, (2017), World Energy Balances, Paris: IEA.


255
PHILIPPINES COUNTRY REPORT
Danilo V. Vivar, Department of Energy, Philippines
1.   Background
1.1.  Socio-economic Background
The Philippines, officially known as the Republic of the Philippines, is amidst Southeast 
Asia’s main water bodies, namely, the South China Sea on the west, Philippine Sea on 
the east, and Sulu and Celebes Sea on the southwest. The country comprises more than 
7,000 islands, situated in the western Pacific Ocean, and is composed of three main 
geographical divisions: Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. The country’s capital, officially 
known as the National Capital Region and commonly known as Metro Manila, is in Luzon. 
It is composed of 16 cities, namely, Caloocan, Las Piñas, Makati, Malabon, Mandaluyong, 
Manila, Marikina, Muntinlupa, Navotas, Parañaque, Pasay, Pasig, Quezon City (the 
country’s most populous city), San Juan, Taguig, and Valenzuela.
 In 2015, the Philippine economy sustained its 6.1% growth rate from the previous year. This 
was largely due to the vigorous economic activities in the industry and the services sectors 
during the period, which posted an annual growth rate of 6.4% and 6.9%, respectively. The 
increase in the industry sector was driven by the 5.7% growth in the manufacturing sector, 
as well as the double-digit hike of 11.6% in the construction sector. The increase in the 
services sector is attributed to the robust domestic trade and services and the boom in real 
estate businesses. Meanwhile, agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing posted a small 
0.1% increase during the period, a slowdown from its 1.7% growth registered for 2014. 
Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita1 of the country was recorded at US$2,616 per 
person in 2015. 
CHAPTER 14
1 
In constant 2010 US$ (World Bank ICP database/World Development Indicators).


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
1.2.  Policy 
The Philippine Department of Energy (DOE) has set forth strategic directions and energy 
agenda to assist President Duterte’s administration in attaining its development goals 
as envisioned in Ambisyon 2040, the blueprint of a long-term, collective vision, and 
aspirations of Filipinos, and supported by national economic strategies that will provide 
opportunities for inclusive growth. Within Ambisyon 2040, the Philippine energy sector 
plays a vital role as an indispensable factor for economic growth. Foremost amongst the 
focus of the DOE is consumer-first policies, reliability of energy supply, and affordability 
of tariffs.
To achieve security and reliability of supply, as well as the vision of a low-carbon future, 
the DOE is adopting a technology-neutral policy in coming up with an optimal energy 
mix, especially for the power sector, for the baseload (70%), mid-merit (20%), and 
peaking (10%) requirements that match the peak demand and the required 25% reserve 
requirements on a per regional grid basis to meet the 43,765 MW additional capacity 
required by 2040. In addition, efforts on the development and promotion of indigenous 
energy, such as renewable energy (RE) and hydrocarbon fuels (oil, gas, and coal) and 
tapping into clean and smart technologies, have been on the priority list to augment the 
country’s long-term energy needs. A Nuclear Energy Implementing Organization, created 
within the DOE, has recommended a firm national policy on nuclear. The country’s 
liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacities and capabilities shall be harnessed through the 
development of the J100 billion2 Batangas integrated LNG by 2020, with an initial 5 
million tons per year throughput and initial reserve capacity of 200 MW. 
The DOE is also pushing for greater energy access thru a 100% national and regional 
electrification rate by facilitating the completion of transmission projects, such as the 
Visayas–Mindanao Interconnection Project by 2020 and the Semirara–Mindoro–Panay 
Interconnection, by 2019 in support of our country’s goal of a One-Grid Philippines. 
Consistent with its drive for consumer empowerment, the DOE is implementing a Pro-
Consumer Distribution Framework for energy affordability, choice, and transparency. On 
the other hand, the finalisation of the Implementing Rules and Regulations of Executive 
Order No. 30,3 which President Duterte signed in June 2017, tags energy projects 
amounting to at least US$70 million as projects of ‘national significance’, while creating 
the Energy Investment Coordinating Council mandated to fast-track the permitting 
process of such energy projects. Aside from this, the DOE is working towards drafting 
guidelines that will assist energy stakeholders and industry participants in coming up with 
2 
Philippine peso.
3 
Full title: ‘Creating the Energy Investment Coordinating Council In Order to Streamline the Regulatory Procedures 
Affecting Energy Projects’.


257
Philippines Country Report
an Energy Sector Resiliency Compliance Plan (RCP). The RCP shall contain adaptation 
measures, both engineering and non-engineering options, to gauge infrastructure and 
human resource preparedness during and in the aftermath of disruptive events.
Below are some of the highlights of the energy sector’s plans and programmes:
Renewable Energy 
The passage of Republic Act (RA) No. 9513, or Renewable Energy Act of 2008, legally 
supports the policy and programme framework to promote the utilisation of RE resources 
and technologies. On 14 June 2011, the government unveiled the National Renewable 
Energy Program (NREP) or the ‘Green Energy Roadmap’ of the Philippines. NREP is 
anchored on the DOE’s Energy Reform Agenda, which aims to ensure greater energy 
supply security for the country. It established the policy and programme framework for 
the promotion of RE and a road map to guide efforts in realising the market penetration 
targets of each RE resource in the country. Under the updated RE road map, the target of 
15,304 megawatts (MW) installed RE capacity by 2030 is envisioned to be increased to 
20,000 by 2040. To achieve this, NREP also provides for policy mechanisms to support 
the implementation of the RE Act. These policy mechanisms include the Renewable 
Portfolio Standards (RPS), feed-in tariffs (FiT), Green Energy Option Program, and Net-
Metering for Renewable Energy.
The RPS sets the minimum percentage of generation from eligible RE resources, provided 
by generators, distribution utilities, and electric suppliers. Initially, an installation target of 
760 megawatts (MW) from RE was set for the first 3 years, from 2013 to 2015, broken 
down as follows: biomass (250 MW), run-of-river hydro (250 MW), solar (50 MW), 
wind (200 MW), and ocean (10 MW).
On the other hand, FiT provides guaranteed payments on a fixed rate per kilowatt-hour 
for RE generation, excluding generation for own use. Effective October 2015, the Energy 
Regulatory Commission has approved FiT rates, which will apply to generation from RE 
sources, particularly run-of-river hydro, biomass, wind, and solar. Effective October 
2015, the approved FiT rates for biomass, hydropower, solar, and wind are J6.63, J5.90, 
J8.69, and J7.40 per kilowatt-hour, respectively. Currently, there is no FiT rate for ocean 
energy since the technology is still for further study and not yet available in the country. 


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Alternative Fuels
Biofuels 
The DOE is aggressively implementing RA 9367, or the Biofuels Act of 2006. The law 
intends to tap the country’s indigenous agricultural resources as potential feedstock 
for biofuel to contribute to the country’s goal of achieving energy security, as well as 
augmenting farmers’ income, generating rural employment, and reducing greenhouse gas 
(GHG) emissions. 
The mandatory 1% biodiesel blend in all diesel fuel sold in the country since May 2007 was 
increased to 2% in February 2009 on a voluntary basis. On the other hand, the country 
now enjoys an accelerated use of E10 (10%) bioethanol blend as supplied by most gasoline 
retailers. The DOE, together with the National Biofuels Board, is embarking on revisiting 
and/or re-evaluating the blending requirement with due consideration on the availability 
of feedstock and to facilitate the scheduled blending of biofuels in compliance with RA 
9367. 
In terms of research and development, the DOE initiated a partnership with the academe 
to implement biofuel projects using alternative feedstocks, such as sweet sorghum, 
cassava, and macro-algae. Four projects were implemented in 2016 to introduce and 
develop alternative feedstocks of biofuels in the country: 
1. Village Scale Production of MMSU4 Hydrous Ethanol as Feedstock for R&D in Biofuel 
Trials and Anhydrous Ethanol Production, which has been completed. 
2. Establishment of a Community-Based Bioethanol Industry and Continued Research 
and Development on the Feasibility of Hydrous Bioethanol as Biofuel Blend, whose 
implementation started only in 2015. These projects are being implemented by the 
Mariano Marcos State University. 
3. Bioethanol Production from Macro-algae and Socio-ecological Implications, which is 
being implemented by the University of the Philippines-Visayas Foundation Inc. 
4. Bioethanol Production Potential of Different Cassava Varieties under Northern 
Mindanao Condition and Development of a Pilot-Scale Cassava Bioethanol Plant, 
which is being implemented by Xavier University.
4 
Mariano Marcos State University.


259
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
The DOE is keen to pursue the implementation of the Natural Gas Vehicle Program 
for Public Transport by engaging a third party to evaluate the feasibility of its project’s 
implementation. To date, the DOE is coordinating with the Department of Transportation 
– Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board – on the confirmation of 
franchise availability for the targeted 200 compressed natural gas (CNG) buses, of which 
176 franchises were declared available for the CNG buses in March 2015. Accordingly, 
the DOE mandated the Philippine National Oil Company Exploration Corporation to take 
over the operation and maintenance of CNG refilling stations. However, the procurement 
of two modular CNG stations for Biñan, Laguna and Port Area, Batangas City has yet to 
be finalised; the issue of securing CNG supply and the negative impact of the current 
volatility of diesel prices on the economic viability of operating the CNG delivery system.
AutoLPG
In terms of using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as an alternative fuel for transport, the 
total number of commercial autoLPG-fuelled taxis nationwide stood at 9,718 units 
complemented by 192 refilling stations in 2015. In 2016, the total number of converted 
taxi units decreased to about 8,415, but the total number of refilling stations remained 
at 192. The decline of taxi units was brought about by various issues that hampered the 
programme’s implementation.
Despite the setback, the DOE is exerting all efforts within its mandate to make autoLPG 
a viable option as a fuel for public transport. To sustain the programme, the DOE, in 
coordination with concerned national government agencies, promotes the mainstreaming 
of autoLPG in the transport sector through policy recommendations. In June 2016, 
the interim inter-agency AutoLPG Technical Working Group (TWG) was officially 
institutionalised through the adoption of Joint Administrative Order No. 1, Series of 2016, 
entitled ‘Creating the Technical Working Group (TWG) on the Use of AutoLPG as Fuel 
for Public Transport and for Other Related Purposes’. The TWG is to be created in key 
areas in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao to harmonise all autoLPG-related policies, rules, 
and guidelines and develop a mechanism for collaboration, cooperation, and coordination 
amongst member national government agencies for the effective implementation of the 
AutoLPG Program (DOE, 2017). 
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E-vehicles 
As of the end of 2015, 10 new companies were engaged in the manufacture of e-trikes 
and were registered under the Board of Investments’ Investment Priority Projects. This 
has translated to about J500 million of fresh investments and generated more than 500 
local jobs. For electric and hybrid vehicles, the Government of Japan coordinated with 
the Department of Foreign Affairs and the DOE for the Japan Non-Project Grant Aid 
for the Introduction of Japanese Advance Products and its System (Next-Generation 
Vehicle Package) for the Philippines. Under the terms of the grant aid, next-generation 
vehicles such as hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and electric vehicles, 
including charging stations, will be procured by the Government of Japan and delivered 
to the Philippines through the DOE for deployment to identified beneficiaries. Target 
beneficiaries of this grant aid include Philippine National Police stations in Leyte and 
Samar which were devastated by typhoon ‘Yolanda’, government agencies in Region 8 
that are instrumental to emergency response operations and rehabilitation. Vehicles were 
also allocated to non-government agencies that could assist in conducting research, 
performance testing, and promoting alternative fuel vehicles. 
Household Electrification
The provision of electricity access is now focused on households throughout the country. 
Household electrification levels increased from 89.6% in 2015 to 90.7% in 2016. This 
increase corresponds to a 3% growth in the number of households energised – from 
19,994,430 in 2015 to 20,597,320 in 2016. It also implies that 20,597,320 out of the 
potential 22,721,430 households are reaping the benefits of electricity access. On a grid 
level, Luzon has the highest electrification and this increased from 94.6% in 2015 to 95.5% 
in 2016. Visayas and Mindanao posted electrification levels of 94.0% and 74.1% in 2016, 
respectively. Aside from these are various grid and off-grid programmes that also aim to 
contribute to 100% electrification of all targeted and identified households accessible to 
the grid by 2022. These are embodied in the Household Electrification Development Plan. 


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1.3.  Energy 
The country’s total primary energy supply (TPES)  in 2015 reached 51.3 million tons of oil 
equivalent (Mtoe). Oil accounted for the biggest share of 33.6% in the total energy supply, 
followed by coal (22.7%) and geothermal (18.5%). Total primary production reached 26.9 
Mtoe, bringing the country’s energy self-sufficiency level at 52.4% during the period.
Meanwhile, the country’s total electricity generation in 2015 reached 82.4 terawatt-hours 
(TWh). Coal-fired power plants remained the major source for power generation, with 
total installed capacity of 5,963 megawatts (MW) during the period. Coal contributed 
44.5% or 36.7 TWh in the total power generation mix of the country. Meanwhile, natural 
gas–fired power plants accounted for 22.9% or 18.9 TWh in the power mix, as the country’s 
three existing natural gas power plants had a combined installed capacity of 2,862 MW. 
On the other hand, the combined share of renewable energy in the total power generation 
mix was registered at 25.4% during the period. 
2.   Modelling Assumptions 
Five scenarios, aside from the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, were developed 
to assess the energy savings potential of the country. the BAU scenario serves as the 
reference case in the projection of energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions 
of the energy sector. the BAU scenario incorporates the energy sector’s existing energy 
policies, plans, and programmes which are being implemented and will be pursued within 
the forecast period. 
Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) 1 assessed the impact of possible policy interventions 
in terms of possible utilisation of energy efficiency technologies for future energy use, 
together with their corresponding reductions in CO2 emissions. This assumes that the 
energy saving goals of 10% in 2024, 25% in 2025, and 20% in 2035 from annual final energy 
demand of the country will be achieved through a range of measures, including intensified 
energy utilisation management programmes in the commercial and industry sectors as 
well as the continuous use of alternative fuels and technologies. The Information and 
Education Campaign Program of the DOE will also contribute to the energy-saving goals of 
the country. In the residential and commercial sectors, the use of more efficient electrical 
appliances is projected to induce savings. Energy labelling and ratings on major electrical 
appliances will also help consumers choose more efficient electrical products.
APS2 assessed the effect of more efficient thermal power generation, particularly for 
future coal and natural gas power plant technologies.
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APS3 measured the results of combined contribution of renewable energy and alternative 
fuels to the total energy supply. As part of the government’s initiative to ensure security 
of energy supply and, at the same time, to protect the environment and promote green 
technology, the targets set under the NREP were incorporated in the model to test their 
impact on the TPES. The NREP lays down the foundation for developing the country’s 
RE resources, stimulating investments in the RE sector, developing technologies, and 
providing the impetus for national and local renewable utilisation. It sets out indicative 
interim targets for the delivery of RE within the time frame. In this scenario, the aggregated 
20 GW RE capacity is assumed in 2040. 
Although the Philippines currently has no firm policy direction on the use of nuclear 
energy in power generation, APS4 considered additional capacity from nuclear power to 
determine the impact of possible long-term nuclear option in the country. Lastly, APS5 
will focus on the combined effects of the four scenarios: APS1, APS2, APS3, and APS4. 
In the model, GDP is projected to grow at an annual rate of around 6% between 2015 and 
2040. The population of the country is expected to grow at the rate of 1.5% yearly for the 
same period. Population growth is based on the adjusted 2000 census-based medium 
population projections using the results of the 2010 census of population.
Additional scenarios were simulated in the energy outlook model to investigate the 
feasibility of the 70% Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) of the 
country as a commitment to international environmental agreements for the planning 
period 2010–2030. INDC1 reflects the possibility of reducing CO2 emissions according 
to the level of INDC submission of the country, which is 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 from 
the BAU scenario level of the same period. The model for INDC1 sets the target of 70% 
CO2 reduction by 2030. On the other hand, INDC2 was simulated to look for a more 
suitable level of CO2 reduction at the end of the planning period in terms of realistic policy 
interventions and assumptions.


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3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1  Total final energy consumption (TFEC)
3.1.1.1. TFEC by sector 
The Philippines’ final energy consumption grew from 19.7 Mtoe in 1990 to 29.6 Mtoe 
in 2015 at an average annual growth rate of about 1.7%. During this period, energy 
consumption in the transport sector grew the fastest at an average annual rate of 3.5%, 
followed by the industry sector with 1.9%. The ‘others’ sector (residential and commercial, 
and agriculture, fishery, and forestry) posted a sluggish average annual growth of 0.1% per 
year.
Final energy consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.7% in the 
BAU scenario over 2015–2040. The transport sector will grow at an average rate of 3.1% 
per year. On the other hand, the industry and ‘others’ sectors are expected to grow faster 
at an average rate of 4.8% and 3.6% per year, respectively (Figure 14.1).
Figure 14.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
10.0
1990
1990
20.0
Mtoe
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2015
2015
2040
2040
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
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Despite the sluggish growth of the aggregated energy consumption of the ‘others’ (such as 
residential and commercial) sector in 1990–2015, it continued to account for the biggest 
share in the total consumption mix for the period – albeit declining from 52.1% in 1990 to 
35.6% by 2015. In the same period, the share of the transport sector in the demand mix 
increased from its level of 23.0% to 35.8%. However, across the planning period, 2015–
2040, the share of transport in the demand mix is declining and will drop to 30.9% by 
2040. On the other hand, as the energy requirement in the industry sector is expected to 
increase the fastest, its share to the demand mix is on a continuous uptrend from 23.7% in 
1990 to 25.1% in 2015 and to 32.5% by 2040. Meanwhile, the combined consumption of 
other sectors will recover from its sluggish growth to sustain its share in the consumption 
mix at an average of 36.3% across the planning horizon. 
3.1.1.2. TFEC by fuel
By fuel type, the consumption of natural gas is projected to grow the fastest at an 
average of 11.5% per year between 2015 and 2040. Increased requirements from 
industry, particularly in cement and other energy-intensive manufacturing sub-sectors, 
will contribute to the average hike in coal demand of 6.0% per year, while electricity is 
expected to maintain its steady pace with an average increment in demand of 4.3% for 
the next 25 years. On the other hand, demand for oil, mainly from the transport sector, is 
expected to grow by 3.7% during the period (Figure 14.2).
Figure 14.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Mtoe
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1990
2015
2040
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990
2015
2040
Oil
Electricity
Coal
Natural Gas
Others
Oil
Electricity
Coal
Natural Gas
Others
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
-


265
Oil will remain as the most-consumed fuel throughout the planning period, with a share 
of 49.7% in 2040 in the total demand mix, slightly lower from its 2015 level of 50.7%. 
Electricity will contribute an average share of 22.7% by 2040, making it the second-most 
consumed energy source after oil. Coal is expected to increase its share of total demand by 
almost twice its 2015 share of 7.7% to 13.3% in 2040. On the other hand, the consumption 
of other fuels such as biomass and other RE, despite their projected lacklustre growth of 
1.7% per year, will account for 13.3% of the demand mix in 2040. 
3.1.2. 
 Total primary energy supply (TPES) by fuel type
Primary energy supply in the Philippines grew at an average annual rate of 2.4%, from 26.0 
Mtoe in 1990 to 47.5 Mtoe in 2015. Amongst the major energy sources, coal grew the 
fastest at 11.5% per year. Geothermal, oil, and hydro each registered average increments 
of 2.9%, 1.7%, and 1.4%, respectively. On the other hand, primary energy supply of other 
fuels went down by 1.3 % per year.  
For 2015–2040, the country’s primary energy supply is expected to increase by 3.6% 
per year from its 2015 level to 115.8 Mtoe in 2040. Consumption of all major energy 
sources are projected to increase during the period, with coal growing the fastest at 4.9% 
per year. Natural gas is also expected to expand with a growth rate of 4.7% per year, while 
oil growth rate is estimated at 3.5% for the period in review. On the other hand, major RE 
consumption from geothermal and hydro will have an average growth rate of 2.9% and 
2.7%, respectively, for the planning period, while other fuels’ aggregated consumption 
level is expected to rise the slowest at 2.1%. 
Oil will account for the largest share in the total energy supply of the country at 33.2%, on 
average, over the planning period. Coal and natural gas, being part of the country’s major 
energy requirements, are projected to register the shares of 31.5% and 8.2%, respectively, 
by the end of 2040. During the same year, geothermal and hydro, which are mainly used 
for power generation, will register shares of 15.9% and 1.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, the 
requirement for other fuels in 2040 will contribute 9.6% to the supply mix (Figure 14.3).
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Figure 14.3: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Mtoe
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
1990
2015
2040
Geothermal
Others
1990
2015
2040
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
3.1.3. 
 Power generation
Total power generation in 2015 reached 82.4 TWh, more than thrice the country’s level 
in 1990. Coal maintains its spot as the major source of power generation, accounting for 
a 44.5% share in 2015. With total power generation expected to increase by 3.9% yearly 
to 215.3 TWh by 2040, the share of coal in the generation mix will likewise increase to 
48.7% for the period to reflect an average annual growth rate of 4.3% and reach the level 
of 105.0 TWh by 2040. Natural gas–fired power plants are also expected to follow the 
same trend as coal, with their generation levels rising by as much as three times its 2015 
level of 18.9 TWh to 55.8 TWh in 2040, about one-fourth of total generation during the 
same year. Major RE sources, such as hydro and geothermal, are expected to contribute 
an aggregate share of 18.1% (8.2% share for hydro and 9.9% share for geothermal) to the 
country’s generation mix in 2040, as output grows at an average annual rate of 2.9% and 
2.7%, respectively. Generation from other energy (solar, wind, and biomass) is expected 
to increase at an average annual rate of 7.7%. Meanwhile, declining use of oil in the power 
sector is evident in its paltry average growth of 0.9% for the planning period (Figure 14.4).


267
The thermal efficiencies of coal, oil, and natural gas under the BAU scenario are projected 
to be constant for the whole planning period. Coal thermal efficiency is set at 34%, while 
oil and natural gas power plant efficiencies are set at around 35% and 55%, respectively 
(Figure 14.5).
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
Figure 14.4: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
TWh
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1990
2015
2040
Coal
Natural Gas
Geothermal
Hydro
Oil
Other
Coal
Natural Gas
Geothermal
Hydro
Oil
Other
1990
2015
2040
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0%
-
Figure 14.5: Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990, 2015, and 2040)
0.0
1990
10.0
%
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2015
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Author’s calculations.
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3.1.4. 
 Energy indicators
Under the BAU scenario, the energy intensity of the country tends to decrease at a rate 
of 2.3% for the period 2015–2040. Energy intensity is the ratio of total primary energy 
over GDP. The significant reduction of energy intensity is attributable to the government’s 
efforts in promoting energy conservation and efficiency in the different sectors of the 
economy. Meanwhile, energy per capita has an increasing trend from 0.47 toe/person in 
2015 to 0.78 toe/person in 2040, due to the improvement in the standard of living and 
income of the people.
Income elasticity of energy is the relationship between changes in the primary energy 
supply and the changes in GDP. The income elasticity for 2015–2040 is expected to be 
at approximately 0.6, indicating that energy demand is rising less than proportionately to 
income.
3.2  Alternative Policy Scenario 
As mentioned, the assumptions in the APS were analysed separately to determine the 
individual impact of each assumption in APS1, APS2, APS3, APS4, and the combination 
of all these assumptions (APS5).
 
Figure 14.6: Energy Intensity, Energy Per Capita, and Income 
Elasticity of Energy (1990, 2015, and 2040)
1990
1990 - 2015
2040
Energy Intensity
Energy Per Capita
TOE/Million 2010 US$
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.1
-
0.2
0.9
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Energy Elasticity
0.7
0.8
TOE/Person
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
2015 - 2040
2015
Source: Author’s calculations.


269
3.2.1. 
 TPES
Figure 14.7 shows the changes in the TPES in all the scenarios. APS1, which assumes 
improved efficiency of final energy consumption, is projected to increase at a rate of 3% 
per year as levels reach 98.4 Mtoe by 2040. Compared to the BAU scenario, APS1 is 
lower by 17.4 Mtoe, or 15%, indicating the effectiveness of energy efficiency measures 
implemented in various sectors of the economy.
Based on the assumption of more efficient thermal power generation, APS2’s TPES will 
be lower by 4.7 Mtoe or 4% compared to the BAU scenario as it will reach 111.06 Mtoe 
in 2040. The bulk of the reduction would be from coal as more efficient power plants are 
assumed to be used to generate power in this scenario.
Under APS3, where the bulk of the increase in the contribution of RE will be in the form of 
variable RE (solar and wind), TPES is lower by 3 Mtoe or 2.6% compared to BAU. This is 
mainly due to the slowdown in the use of geothermal energy in power generation vis-à-vis 
hydro and other RE. Under APS3, aggregate generation output from other RE (solar, wind, 
biomass, etc.) alone is expected to increase by as much as 10.5% per year, outpacing the 
2.4% annual growth in geothermal generation output. This brings the TPES levels under 
APS3 to 112.8 Mtoe by 2040. 
Figure 14.7: Comparison of Scenarios to Total Primary Energy Supply (2040)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Mtoe
38.8
9.5
18.4
11.2
31.8
6.8
16.6
10.8
38.8
8.7
18.4
10.7
38.6
8.8
17.1
11.7
38.8
8.7
18.1
11.1
4.1
31.6
4.9
17.1
3.8
11.4
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Natural Gas
Geothermal
Hydro
Oil
Others
Nuclear
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
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With the entry of nuclear in the energy mix, APS4 is the only scenario where the TPES 
is slightly higher than the BAU scenario by about 0.5 Mtoe, or 0.4%. This is due to the 
assumption that the thermal efficiency of nuclear power plants is 33% lower than the 
efficiencies of natural gas and coal power plants at 35.0% and 55.0%, respectively.
Combining all scenarios, the country’s TPES under APS5 will grow at an average annual 
rate of 2.8% to reach 95.05 Mtoe in 2040. The combined effects of APS1 to APS4 is 
expected to yield the biggest reduction of 20.8 Mtoe, making the level of energy supply 
under APS5 17.9% lower than under the BAU scenario. This indicates the effectiveness of 
combining various energy assumptions – improved efficiency in the energy demand and 
thermal power generation, as well as higher contribution of RE and entry of nuclear in the 
supply mix – to achieve the feasible level of the TPES by 2040.
3.2.2. 
 Total electricity generation
Figure 14.8 shows the total electricity generation in 2040 in all scenarios. Due to the 
efficiency measures resulting in lower electricity demand, APS1’s total generation output 
was at 172.3 TWh as all fuels register reduced generation output vis-à-vis the BAU 
scenario. This makes APS1’s level at 43.1 TWh or 20% less than 215.3 TWh under the 
BAU scenario, with lower shares for fossil-fired power plants, particularly for natural gas 
and coal.
Figure 14.8: Comparison of Scenarios to Electricity Generation (2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hours.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
0
50
100
150
200
250
TWh
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
Coal
Natural Gas
Geothermal
Hydro
Oil
Others
Nuclear
105.0
83.5
105.0
97.1
94.8
62.2
6.6
29.3
24.2
19.9
15.7
14.4
7.4
7.1
7.3
56.5
51.4
50.8
17.6
24.2
17.5
21.4
19.9
21.1
7.5
15.7
8.0
15.9
7.3
38.4
16.6
19.4
7.1
7.4
55.8
17.6
21.4
8.2


271
APS2, APS3, and APS4 yield the same total generation output with the BAU scenario. 
However, under APS2, coal share will increase slightly by less than a TWh compared 
with the BAU scenario level. This is because of the entry of highly efficient coal-fired 
power plants, which, although operating with higher thermal efficiency by 2% compared 
with conventional coal plants, will contribute significantly to the generation mix. Power 
generation from coal is projected to reach 105.0 TWh level by 2040 for APS2, slightly 
higher compared with its level in the BAU scenario. This is the same case with the power 
generation from natural gas that will also increase slightly in APS2 from the BAU scenario. 
On the total account, the effect of higher thermal efficiencies of fossil fuel plants is a slight 
reduction on the aggregated variable RE generation output for APS2. On the other hand, 
the shares of generation from fossil fuels are lower for the two other scenarios, as they are 
displaced by RE for APS3 and entry of nuclear in the generation mix for APS4. 
While APS5’s total generation output is equal to that of APS1 for 2040 at 172.3 TWh, 
there is a significant reduction in the aggregate level of fossil fuels’ power output from the 
BAU scenario to APS5 at 41.7 %, or from 168.1 TWh to 98.02 TWh.
3.2.3. 
 Total CO2 emissions
In terms of reduction of CO2 emissions, the energy efficiency assumption in APS1 will 
generate 222.6 million metric tons of carbon (Mt-C), which is 49.0 Mt-C or 18.0% lower 
than BAU for 2040. The decrease in CO2 indicates that the energy-saving goals, action 
plans, and policies in the promotion of the energy efficiency and conservation programme 
will be effective in reducing CO2 emissions (Figure 14.9). 
Figure 14.9: Comparison of Scenarios to CO2 Emissions (2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculations. 
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
Mt-C
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS4
APS5
144.6
104.8
22.3
122.9
83.8
15.9
132.2
104.8
20.4
136.6
104.4
20.7
134.4
104.8
20.4
96.0
83.8
11.5
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
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Under APS2, total CO2 emissions are lower by 14.2 Mt-C or 5.2% relative to the BAU 
scenario’s 271.6 Mt-C. In APS3, the reduction is the least amongst all alternative 
scenarios at 10 Mt-C. In APS4, the reduction will account for the level of 12.1 Mt-C or 
4.4% compared with the BAU scenario.
Combining all the assumptions in APS1, APS2, APS3, and APS4 (APS5) will give the 
aggregate reduction of CO2 emissions from the BAU scenario at 80.3 Mt-C or 29.6%. 
3.2.4. 
 Final energy consumption
Figures 14.10 to 14.12 show the levels of the TFEC in 2040 between the BAU scenario 
and the APS (APS5), by sector and by fuel. Due to the improved economy-wide energy 
efficiency that will yield higher energy savings on the demand side under the APS, final 
energy demand is at 63.8 Mtoe, which is 10.4 Mtoe or 14% lower than the BAU scenario.
Figure 14.10: Comparison of Total Final Energy Consumption in 2040, BAU and APS 
Mtoe
19.7
0
20
40
60
80
100
29.6
74.2
63.8
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
-10.4 Mtoe, -14.0%
Figure 14.11: Comparison of Final Energy Consumption in 2040, BAU and APS
Mtoe
7.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
25.0
24.1
22.1
10.6
22.9
18.5
10.5
25.2
21.3
1.048
1.991
1.991
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
–17.9%
–7.3%
0.0%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–1.2%


273
All economic sectors are expected to contribute to the aggregate reduction in energy 
demand under the APS. The transport sector will cut its demand by as much 19.5% to 
reach 18.5 Mtoe, from 22.9 Mtoe in the BAU scenario. Energy demand from the ‘others’ 
sector (residential, commercial, agriculture, fishery, and forestry) at 21.3 Mtoe is 15.4% 
lower than its BAU level of 25.2 Mtoe. The industry sector will also contribute 8.5% 
reduction – from 24.1 Mtoe under the BAU scenario to 22.1 Mtoe in the APS.
The impact of improved efficiency is evident in the 19% and 20% decline in the consumption 
of oil and electricity under the APS (APS5) vis-à-vis BAU (Figure 14.12).
3.3  Intended Nationally Determined Contributions Scenario
Aside from the assumptions set forth under the APSs, the country’s commitment to 
international environmental agreements in terms of its INDC was likewise studied. 
Two simulations were done for this purpose: INDC1 seeks to determine the effect of 
a 70% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 from BAU, while INDC2 looks into more 
considerable CO2 emissions reduction targets by 2040. In INDC1, to be able to reduce 
CO2 emissions by 70% in 2030, fuel substitution, such as from fossil fuels to electricity 
and biomass, was assumed from 2025 to 2035 in the demand sectors. On the other hand, 
more considerable assumptions were made in INDC2, such as 25%–30% energy efficiency 
target from 2025 to 2035 and 10% electricity use in the transport, industry, and services 
sectors to substitute gasoline and diesel demand. For INDC2 power generation, it was 
Figure 14.12: Comparison of Final Energy Consumption 
by Fuel Type in 2040, BAU and APS 
0.0
2015
5.0
Mtoe
10.0
15.0
20.0
30.0
25.0
2040
Coal
BAU
APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
2.3
35.0
45.0
40.0
50.0
9.9
9.9
2015
2040
Oil
BAU
APS
15.0
36.9
29.9
2015
2040
Natural Gas
BAU
APS
0.1
0.8
0.8
2015
2040
Electricity
BAU
APS
5.8
16.8
13.5
2015
2040
Others
BAU
APS
6.4
9.8
9.8
–19.0%
–20.0%
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assumed that all additional capacities from coal and natural gas power plants by 2022 
until 2040 will be of highly efficient technologies and more contribution of RE generation 
output to compensate for the significant increase in electricity demand. At the end, the 
energy savings potential of INDC2 at 25.5 Mtoe is higher by 4 percentage points compared 
with APS5 (20.8 Mtoe) but with much higher CO2 reduction from the BAU scenario by 
38.2% in 2040 compared with APS5 with 29.6% CO2 reduction at the same period. 
3.3.1  TPES 
INDC1 yields a TPES level of 64.5 Mtoe, 44.3% (51.3 Mtoe) less than that of the BAU 
scenario. Under INDC1, supply of fossil fuels will significantly decline by 70.6% from the 
BAU level. On the other hand, the reduction on INDC2 supply level compared with the 
BAU scenario is projected at 22%. Comparing also the supply level between INDC2 and 
the APS, the difference is only 4.8 Mtoe, with INDC2 lower by 5% at the 90.3 Mtoe level 
of energy supply. Despite the significant reduction in the aggregate supply of fossil fuels in 
INDC2 at 37%, this was compensated by the higher production of RE compared with the 
BAU scenario and APS5.  
0.0
20.0
Mtoe
40.0
Figure 14.13: Comparison of Total Primary Energy 
Supply in 2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5)
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
INDC1
12.2
9.1
BAU
36.5
38.8
9.5
1.5
18.4
11.2
3.7
18.4
15.5
3.1
3.6
INDC2
21.5
26.3
5.8
3.8
2.1
17.6
13.1
APS5
24.2
31.6
4.9
3.8
2.1
17.1
11.4
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Geothermal
Others
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,  
 
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.


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3.3.3  Final energy demand
The CO2 emissions reduction targets for both INDC1 and INDC2 put a cap on final 
energy demand, resulting in lower levels  compared to APS5. However, energy demand in 
transport, which has been the primary source of CO2 emissions amongst end-use sectors, 
has been reduced to 7.4 Mtoe under INDC1, which is considerably lower  compared to 
the sector’s historical consumption levels. This contributes to the halving of final energy 
demand for INDC1 at 35.4 Mtoe from the BAU scenario’s 74.2 Mtoe. On the other hand, 
the demand mix of INDC2, which totals 57.6 Mtoe, is almost similar with the levels of 
each end-use sector from that of the BAU scenario and APS5.
3.3.2  Total CO2 Emissions 
INDC1 will produce the least amount of CO2 emissions at 74.7 Mt-C amongst the 
four  scenarios. This will reflect 70% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2030 and 72.5 CO2 
emission by 2040 from BAU. On the other hand, INDC2’s CO2 emissions reduction at 
167.9 Mt-C in 2040 is lesser by 55.4% compared with that of INDC1 during the period, 
while only 12.2% higher reduction from APS5. The CO2 emissions reduction of INDC1, 
INDC2, and APS5 from the BAU scenario will register at 72.5%, 38.2%, and 29.6%, 
respectively, by 2040. 
Figure 14.14: Comparison of Total CO2 in 2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5) 
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
Mt-C
BAU
144.6
104.8
22.3
INDC1
48.9
17.2
8.7
INDC2
86.4
67.8
13.7
INDC2
96.0
83.8
11.5
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
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Figure 14.15: Comparison of Final Energy Consumption 
by Sector in 2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5)
Mtoe
BAU
24.1
22.9
25.2
2.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
INDC1
14.0
7.4
12.0
2.0
INDC2
20.3
16.0
19.2
2.0
APS5
22.1
18.5
21.3
2.0
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,  
 
 
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Industry
Others
Transport
Non-energy
In Figure 14.16, the effect of 70% CO2 reduction in INDC1 will bring down the aggregate 
consumption of oil and coal by 80.3% from its BAU scenario level. The scenario may not 
be possible without other fuels to substitute this aggregate level of consumption of oil and 
coal. In particular, coal consumption in INDC1 will be reduced to a mere 1.4 Mtoe by 
2040 or an almost sevenfold reduction from the BAU scenario, while oil will account for 
an almost fivefold reduction. For INDC2, an assumption to substitute smaller reduction 
of fossil fuels in the demand sectors will bring down the coal and oil demands by 32% to 
33% from the BAU scenario. INDC2’s electricity demand is higher by 6.5% compared with 
the APS5 level to compensate reduction in fossil-fuel demand. Meanwhile, oil demand in 
INDC2 will be reduced significantly compared with the BAU scenario and APS5 but will 
still be the most dominant fuel in the demand sector as could also be observed in the BAU 
scenario and APS5.


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4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
Amongst the fossil fuels under the BAU scenario, coal supply will register the fastest growth 
rate at 4.9% throughout the planning period. This is due to the significant contribution of 
coal in power generation, which corresponds to the increasing demand for electricity at 
4.3% average annual rate. Towards 2040, coal supply level will almost be at equal level 
with the country’s most dominant fuel, oil, that is mainly used in the transport sector. The 
aggregated share of RE at 26.8% is behind by 14.8% of the projected contribution of coal 
in the supply mix. The result of the study indicates that the significant use of coal during 
the planning period is inevitable. Given the current policy of the government to fully 
support the attainment of its development goals as envisioned in Ambisyon 2040, which 
covers the country’s industrialisation and urbanisation goal within the framework of the 
long-term Philippine Development Plan, the DOE is focused on achieving security and 
reliability of energy supply in anticipation of the long-term economic development of the 
country. This is to support the vision of a low-carbon future and adopting a technology-
neutral policy in coming up with an optimal energy mix. At this point, a reliable source 
of energy for power generation such as coal is indispensable; in fact, majority of the 
committed capacities from the private power projects are coal power projects (more than 
70% of the committed capacities). Consistent with the results of the study, the share 
Figure 14.16: Comparison of Final Energy Consumption 
by Fuel Type in 2040 (BAU, INDC, and APS5)
Mtoe
BAU
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
INDC1
INDC2
APS5
36.9
16.8
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions,  
 
Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculations. 
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Natural gas
9.9
0.8
9.8
7.8
12.1
1.4
0.8
13.3
24.5
14.4
6.7
0.8
11.1
29.9
13.5
9.9
0.8
9.8
Others
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of coal in power generation by 2040 will account for almost half of the total generation 
output. Natural gas will comprise one-fourth of the generation output while the remaining 
shares will be sourced from oil and RE. Thus, it is important for the government to push 
for more diversification of energy sources in a feasible manner to achieve an ideal energy 
mix that would be consistent with the goal of the energy sector on energy security. Coal-
fired power plants provide reliable baseload capacity given their dominant share in power 
generation,  while avoiding or controlling their increased capacity in power generation will 
hamper the stability of electricity supply.  The government still needs to safeguard the 
environment through policy interventions such as promoting the use of highly efficient 
and clean coal technologies in power generation and non-power industries. In fact, coal 
demand in the industry sector will be the third highest in utilisation level by 2040 after 
oil and electricity at 13.3% share of the total demand mix. However, there is an issue in 
implementing the policy, considering the power sector is a deregulated industry. Under 
this condition, the government has limited control in choosing the type of power plants 
to be built since the power industry is already deregulated and led by private investment. 
It can be addressed somehow by formulating a fuel mix policy for power generation to 
guide and inform investors and other key players of the industry on the preferred power 
mix of the country for long-term sustainability of the country’s power sector. This policy 
might have been in conflict with technology-neutral policies. However, the role of the 
government here is only to provide a check-and-balance on the share of fuel types in the 
power mix. Each fuel should not be more than the required level that it could dictate the 
price of electricity and disrupt supply that will more likely cause a total power crisis. 
On the demand side, oil will register the biggest share in the final energy consumption 
by almost half of the demand mix at the end of the planning period. This will happen 
despite the current effort of the government to promote the energy efficiency and 
conservation programme and alternative fuel and technology development. The results 
of the model indicate that the share of oil in the total demand is constantly at around 
50% across different scenarios. It would be appropriate for the government to focus on 
the promotion of alternative fuels in the transport sector to substitute partly and directly 
the use of oil in the sector with the extended implementation of alternative fuels in the 
transport programme.
Moreover, the use of alternative technologies and fuels such as electric vehicles, 
compressed natural gas (CNG), autogas (LPG for transportation), and biofuels for 
transport will temper the utilisation of oil in the country in the future, thus, reducing the 
negative impacts of oil price volatility in the world market. The government’s efforts in 
the promotion of alternative fuels in the transport sector will help not only in reducing 
the energy requirements but also in lessening GHG emissions that mostly come from the 
transport sector.


279
On the other hand, under the APS, energy and CO2 intensity will continue to decline 
from 2015 to 2040, although CO2 emissions per energy consumption will increase 
corresponding to the increased share of fossil fuels. In this regard, the government should 
strictly implement plans and/or programmes for energy efficiency and conservation 
that will address volatile oil prices and their inflationary effect on the prices of basic 
commodities, and change the economic structure of the country to rely more on its 
services sector rather than on energy-intensive industries. This is also consistent with the 
target of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) to reduce its aggregate energy 
intensity (energy demand per unit of GDP) by 45% by 2035, with 2005 as the base year. 
Improvement in the energy intensity of the Philippines is expected to be driven in part 
by the country’s changing economic structure, relying more on its service sector than on 
energy-intensive industries. 
In response to the results of this study, the government should pursue its programmes and 
projects that will further increase and enhance the use of indigenous, clean, and efficient 
alternative fuels. The full implementation of the Renewable Energy Act of 2008 to expand 
the utilisation and development of indigenous energy, such as geothermal, hydro, solar, 
wind, and other clean energy, will not only promote the use of sustainable energy but will 
also lessen the country’s need for energy imports. FiT, RPS, and other policy mechanisms 
provided under the law will boost the use of RE.
 Special attention should also be given to the industry sector since its energy demand is 
growing more than the transport sector and could have high potential energy savings. In 
fact, based on the study results, the demand of the industry sector will surpass that of the 
transport sector as early as 2035 across different scenarios.
Currently, the Philippines has a specific quantitative energy-saving requirement as 
provided under Administrative Order (AO) No. 110, Directing the Institutionalisation of 
a Government Energy Management Program. The AO requires the reduction of at least 
10% in the cost of fuel and electricity consumption, amongst others, in the government. 
This can be duplicated or expanded to other sectors if an existing energy conservation law 
will require strict regulation and implementation. 
In addition, there is a need to pass the Energy Conservation Law to realise the targets 
set by the government. The law will institutionalise energy conservation and enhance the 
efficient use of energy in the country.
Moreover, looking at the integration of all the scenarios, the result is effective in reducing 
the carbonisation ratio. This indicates that the government should set the enabling 
environment to ensure that policies will strictly be implemented.
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Finally, it is important to ratify commitment to international environmental agreements 
like the INDC and Nationally Determined Contributions that will direct member countries 
to pursue reduction of CO2 emissions under a certain framework. Based on the results of 
the study, nearly 35% could be a suitable level of CO2 emissions reduction in the country 
by 2040.
 
References
Congress of the Philippines (2007), Republic Act No. 9367, Biofuels Act of 2006. 
Quezon City.
Congress of the Philippines (2008), Republic Act No. 9513, Renewable Energy Act of 
2008. Quezon City. 
DOE (2016a), Energy Sector Accomplishment Report 2016, Taguig: DOE.
DOE (2016b), 2015 Philippine Energy Situationer, Taguig, Manila: Energy Policy and 
Planning Bureau–DOE.
DOE (2016c), 2015 Philippine Energy Supply and Demand Outlook, Taguig, Manila: 
DOE
Department of Energy (DOE) (2017), Philippine Energy Plan 2017 Update, Taguig, 
Manila: DOE.
Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA) (2016), Philippine Statistical Yearbook. Manila: 
PSA.
World Bank (2015), World Bank ICP database/World Development Indicators, 
Washington, DC: World Bank.


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SINGAPORE COUNTRY REPORT
Loi Tian Sheng Allan, Energy Studies Institute, 
National University of Singapore, Singapore
1.   Background
Singapore is a small island-state in Southeast Asia, located along the Strait of Malacca 
between Malaysia and Indonesia. It is the most urbanised and industrialised country in 
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with a per capita gross domestic 
product (GDP) of $52,200 (in constant 2010 US$) in 2015. Singapore submitted its 
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the Secretariat of the United 
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on 3 July 2015 (NCCS, 2015) and has 
signed off to the Paris Agreement as of 22 April 2016 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2016). 
Singapore’s INDC highlights its intentions to reduce its emissions intensity by 36% from 
2005 levels by 2030. In addition to emissions intensity targets, Singapore also intends to 
stabilise emissions with the aim of peaking around 2030. Under the Copenhagen Accord, 
Singapore also has a voluntary target of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 7%–
11% below Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario levels in 2020 (NCCS, 2012), which will 
be increased to 16% if there is a global agreement on climate change. 
2.   Singapore’s Policy Initiatives
The Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change was created in 2007 to facilitate a 
whole-of-government approach to addressing climate change–related issues. Chaired 
by Teo Chee Hean, Deputy Prime Minister and Co-ordinating Minister for National 
Security and Minister of Home Affairs, the committee was attended by the ministers for 
the environment and water resources, finance, foreign affairs, national development, 
trade and industry, as well as transport, to provide an overarching strategic planning for 
Singapore’s mitigation efforts. 
CHAPTER 15


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Switching to cleaner fuels, energy efficiency improvements and the promotion of 
alternative sources of energy were highlighted as the main tenets of Singapore’s mitigation 
policies. These policies were developed as part of the country’s national policy framework 
to support its multipronged objectives of achieving economic competitiveness, energy 
security, and environmental sustainability (Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2007) all at 
the same time.
2.1.  Fuel Switch
Singapore started switching from oil to natural gas as a source for power generation in 
the early 2000s. Today, natural gas remains a key component of the country’s power 
generation mix. Imports into Singapore increased by 2.4% in 2016 and, in 2017, natural gas 
represented 95.2% of the fuel mix for electricity generation in Singapore (Energy Market 
Authority, 2018). Petroleum products, coal, and others accounted for the remaining 
0.7%, 1.2%, and 2.9%, respectively (Energy Market Authority, 2018). In a consultation 
paper released by the Energy Market Authority in 2015, natural gas is expected to remain 
dominant in Singapore’s power sector in the foreseeable future.
To expand the country’s import capability and sourcing options for liquefied natural 
gas (LNG), Singapore has already commenced commercial operations with its newly 
constructed LNG terminal in May 2013. This currently has a throughput capacity of 
6 million tons per year (Boon, 2013) and 9 million metric tons per annum (Mtpa) 
thereafter in 2017 with a fourth storage tank to be constructed. The current aims are to 
increase the targeted annual capacity to 11 Mtpa by 2018 (Veras, 2016).
2.2.  Promoting Solar Energy
Singapore has been active in promoting solar energy as the only alternative renewable 
source of energy to meet its needs. Although solar technology is not subsidised, there is 
policy support for the deployment of solar resources in the form of removal of non-market 
barriers; system support in terms of facilitating system integration of the intermittency 
of solar energy without compromising grid stability; and continued support for research, 
development, and demonstration efforts aimed at reducing costs and improving 
efficiency of solar modules. As part of the policy objective of accelerating the scale of 
solar deployment in Singapore, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) awarded in 
2015 a public tender for the installation and management of 76 megawatt-peak (MWp) 
of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels under the SolarNova programme (HDB, 2015a). The 
SolarNova programme, led by the Economic Development Board (EBD), is a government-


283
Singapore Country Report
led programme that aims to promote solar deployment through aggregating solar demand 
across the public sector (Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2014). The EDB and the Public 
Utilities Board have also partnered to install floating PV platforms in reservoirs (Channel 
News Asia, 2015). Future initiatives will involve the installation of solar-ready roofs on all 
HDB flats with at least 400 square metres of open roof space, with the HDB committing to 
install at least 220 MWp of solar panels at about 5,500 HDB flats by 2020 (HDB, 2017).
Beyond these forms of support, Singapore also has a national target of deploying 350 
MWp of solar PV by 2020 and extending the share of solar PV to 8% of the country’s peak 
electricity demand by 2030 (NCCS, 2016a). 
In 2010, Singapore had explored the nuclear option with a nuclear energy pre-feasibility 
study. The results of the study, which was confirmed in a 2012 statement from the 
Ministry of Trade and Industry, was that nuclear energy was not suitable for deployment, 
given that the high risks associated with the dense urban population of Singapore outweigh 
the benefits (Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2012). However, Singapore will continue 
to monitor technological developments and may revisit the option in the future. In the 
meantime, it shall cooperate with international and regional players to actively tackle 
issues regarding nuclear safety and emergency planning. 
2.3.  Energy Efficiency Improvements
Energy efficiency is another integral part of Singapore’s mitigation effort. An inter-agency 
Energy Efficiency Programme Office, led by the National Environment Agency and the 
Energy Market Authority, was established in May 2007 to help promote and facilitate the 
adoption of energy efficiency across sectors in Singapore (Energy Efficiency Programme 
Office, 2013a). Across the nation, energy efficiency improvements are promoted through 
a plethora of standards and regulations, public awareness, and messaging as well as the 
adoption of more efficient appliance stock.
Households
Households account for about one-sixth of the electricity consumed in Singapore 
(NCCS, 2016b) and are, thus, a key sector for energy efficiency policies. The Mandatory 
Energy Labelling Scheme (MELS) and Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) 
are two pillars of residential energy efficiency policies. The MELS, introduced in 2008, 
imposes compulsory display of energy labels on relevant household appliances. This 
requirement was imposed on all registrable air conditioners and refrigerators, as well as 
smaller appliances such as television sets, clothes dryers, and lighting. MELS serves to 
inform consumers and help them identify, and thereby purchase, more energy-efficient 


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
appliances. MEPS is a supply-side policy that complements MELS by prohibiting the sale 
of appliance models that do not meet the minimum specified energy efficiency levels. 
They help consumers avoid being locked into using inefficient appliances with high 
operating costs and encourage suppliers to import more energy-efficient appliances as 
innovation progresses over time. Both MELS and MEPS are constantly evaluated and 
revised to ensure policy efficacy and efficiency. 
In addition to MELS and MEPS, various public messaging campaigns aimed at targeting 
behavioural change in households were also introduced. These initiatives target both the 
initial purchasing decision as well as behaviour at the consumption stage. For example, 
the Life Cycle Calculator improves consumer awareness during the purchasing stage, 
while the Home Energy Auditor motivates energy efficiency behavioural change when 
consuming electricity at home. Recent public messaging campaigns have also began 
targeting residential interior design with the Resource Efficiency Guide for New Home 
Owners.
Since the early 2010s, the relevant ministries are studying the feasibility and cost–benefit 
of utilising smart home technologies, such as the home energy management systems, 
to reduce residential energy consumption. Residents in the Yuhua estate in the west of 
Singapore will be the first as a pilot estate to experience such technologies, where smart 
features will be progressively implemented until 2018 (HDB, 2015b). Subsequently, the 
rollout of full retail contestability, where residential consumers can choose their own 
electricity supplier in the second half of 2018 (Tang See Kit, 2018), could provide further 
support for conservation efforts should consumers become more aware of their own 
electricity load profiles (Loi, Owen, and Ke, 2017).
Transport
Energy efficiency in the transport sector is governed by three complementary policy 
objectives: (i) reducing private transport (ii) promoting public transport ridership, and (iii) 
promoting non-motorised transport.
The Vehicle Quota System regulates the growth of vehicle population in Singapore. 
Under this system, anyone who wishes to register or buy a new vehicle in Singapore must 
first obtain a certificate of entitlement, which represents a right to vehicle ownership 
for 10 years (Land Transport Authority, 2014a). In view of the land constraints on road 
expansion, the annual vehicle population growth rate has decreased to 0% effectively 
from February 2018 onwards (Land Transport Authority, 2017a). Since 2012, the Fuel 
Economy Labelling Scheme has mandated fuel economy labels to be affixed to vehicles 
at the point of sale. This was complemented by the Carbon Emissions-based Vehicle 


285
Scheme, introduced in 2013 (Land Transport Authority, n.d.), and was in place until 
December 2017. This scheme qualified all new cars and imported used cars with low 
carbon emissions of less than or equal to 135 g carbon emissions per kilometre (CO2/
km) for vehicle tax rebates of S$5,000–S$30,000. Cars with high carbon emissions of 
more than 185g CO2/km also incurred a corresponding registration surcharge between 
S$5,000 and S$20,000. Taxis were imposed higher surcharges to adopt lower emission 
models for their fleet (Land Transport Authority, 2015). This scheme was replaced in 
January 2018 by the new Vehicular Emissions Label, which offers rebates and surcharges 
based on the worst-performing pollutant out of five. These charges range from S$30,000 
(rebates) to S$30,000 (surcharge), depending on the band category in which the new car 
or taxi is being purchased (Land Transport Authority, 2017b).
Public transport is the most energy-efficient mode of travel. Under the Land Transport 
Masterplan, Singapore targets to achieve a 75% public transport modal share during peak 
hours by 2030, up from 66% in 2014. In a nutshell, the promotion of public transport 
ridership is achieved by ensuring the efficiency and reliability of public transport services. 
In addition to constantly upgrading and expanding the current fleet of public transport 
vehicles, actions were also taken to expand existing metro lines and outreach. Mandatory 
give-way operations also ensure bus priority on the roads. The Park & Ride scheme was 
also initiated to ensure a seamless switch between private and public transport. 
The government will create more connections through the construction of two new rail 
lines and three new extensions. By 2030, the rail network would have doubled from the 
existing 178 km in 2013 to about 360 km, and 8 in 10 homes would be located within 
a 10-minute walk from a train station. Public buses would connect commuters to even 
more places, with new bus routes added to the bus network. Singapore is adding about 80 
new bus services under the Bus Service Enhancement Programme. 
To improve the overall experience of commuters, especially in the first and last miles of 
their journeys, the government will also build more than 200 km of sheltered walkways. 
More integrated transport hubs will also be built to enable commuters to switch between 
different types of transport easily, with convenient access to retail, dining, and other 
lifestyle services. Cycling and walking are also encouraged through public messaging 
campaigns. Specifically, the intra-town cycling programme launched by the Land 
Transport Authority promotes cycling through designated specialised road cycling paths. 
The island-wide cycling path network will eventually be well over 700 km in length. In 
addition, the electric vehicle pilot car-sharing programme is in progress, which will see the 
introduction of possibly 1,000 electric vehicles and charging infrastructure by (2020) to 
promote their use (Land Transport Authority, 2014b).
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Buildings
At the design stage, energy efficiency in buildings is governed by the Building and 
Construction Authority (BCA) of Singapore’s Green Mark Scheme. Launched in January 
2005 to promote environment sustainability in the construction and real estate sectors, 
the Green Mark Scheme targets environment-friendly designs in buildings, with a focus 
on energy efficiency, water efficiency, environmental protection, indoor environmental 
quality, and other green features focusing on landlord’s contributions in ‘going green’ (E2 
Singapore, 2016). Since April 2008, all new buildings and existing buildings undergoing 
major retrofitting works with a gross floor area above 2,000 square metres must meet 
Green Mark certified standards. The BCA Green Mark Scheme promotes the adoption 
of green building technologies and reduces the use of electricity in the commercial 
sector via efficiency improvements and conservation. Buildings exceeding the minimum 
requirements are also awarded higher accreditations, such as the Platinum Green Mark, 
which serves to promote exceptional performance. Technical and financial support 
mechanisms are also provided to motivate continued energy efficiency upgrades. The 
Building Energy Efficiency Roadmap, published jointly by the National Climate Change 
Secretariat and the National Research Foundation in 2014, evaluates existing energy 
efficiency technologies for buildings, hence, providing technical expertise in the area. 
Various financial support mechanisms, such as Green Mark Incentive Scheme for Existing 
Buildings and Premises and the Building Retrofit Energy Efficiency Financing scheme, 
are available to provide co-financing for retrofitting and energy efficiency upgrades. The 
target is for at least 80% of the buildings in Singapore to achieve BCA Green Mark certified 
rating by 2030 (BCA, 2013). The most recent updates for the Green Mark Assessment 
Criteria are in 2016 for residential buildings (BCA, 2016), and an ongoing pilot for non-
residential buildings (BCA, 2017).
Since a 2012 survey by the Development Authority of Singapore revealed that the 10 
largest data centre operators in Singapore consumed as much energy as 130,000 
households, data centres became a key sector for policymakers. Data centres have been 
included in the BCA Green Mark Scheme since 2012. A similar technology roadmap has 
been prepared for data centres, which highlights strong growth prospects for improving 
energy efficiency in the sector. This was in line with estimates from the 2012 survey which 
posited that there is an energy efficiency potential of 20%. The Development Authority 
of Singapore also launched a new Green Data Centre Innovation Programme aimed at 
promoting innovative technological approaches to improving energy efficiency in data 
centres. 


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Since 2006, the Public Sector Taking the Lead in Environmental Sustainability (PSTLES) 
initiative has placed the public sector at the front of building energy efficiency. Under 
the PSTLES, all existing public sector buildings must meet a minimum Gold Mark 
rating, as determined by the type of building. Moreover, the Guaranteed Energy Savings 
Performance (GESP) contracts initiative was introduced to ensure reaping the expected 
energy savings. Under the GESP contract structure, the public sector agency is expected 
to engage an accredited energy services company to carry out an energy audit, implement 
the relevant energy efficiency measures, and guarantee annual energy savings over a 3- 
to 5-year contract period (E2 Singapore, n.d.). The efficacy of this initiative could be 
proved with the average electricity savings of 15% across 14 projects by March 2015 (E2 
Singapore, 2015a), contributing to annual monetary savings of S$6 million. 
Industry
The industry-focused Energy Efficiency National Partnership is a voluntary programme 
which started in 2010 that helps companies put in place energy management systems 
and implement projects to improve energy efficiency. Mandatory energy management 
requirements for energy-intensive companies in the industry sector were later introduced 
in April 2013 under the Energy Conservation Act . Energy-intensive companies consuming 
more than 15 GWh (electricity) or 54 terajoules (fuel or steam) each year are required to 
appoint an energy manager, monitor and report energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, 
and submit energy efficiency improvement plans (National Environment Agency, 2014). 
Beside legislation enforcing mandatory energy management practices, policies were also 
introduced to incentivise energy efficiency investments. The ESCO (energy services 
company) Accreditation Scheme supports the Energy Conservation Act by ensuring 
professionalism in energy-related services. As of mid-2018, 29 qualified energy services 
specialists are from 19 accredited ESCOs.
Incentives and grants, such as the Design for Efficiency Scheme, Energy Efficiency 
Improvement Assistance Scheme, and the Grant for Energy Efficiency Technologies, 
were also put in place as co-financing schemes to reduce initial costs of energy efficiency 
upgrades. The One-Year Accelerated Depreciation Allowance for Energy Efficient 
Equipment and Technology is another example of a tax incentive to encourage energy 
efficiency upgrades in industries (E2 Singapore, 2015b). Knowledge-sharing is also 
promoted through industry-focused seminars and provision of energy management 
training and resources. 
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3.   Modelling Assumptions
3.1.  Power Generation Sector
For the BAU scenario, the generation efficiency of combined-cycle gas turbine plants is 
assumed to improve from 50.5% in 2015 to 52% in 2040, registering an increase of 2.9% 
due to progression towards a competitive electricity market. Single-cycle thermal plants 
are expected to improve marginally as well from 34.7% to 42% in 2040. The use of solar 
generation capacity is assumed to grow from 3% in 2015 to around 9% of aggregate demand 
for electricity in 2040, as part of public efforts towards promoting renewable energies. 
With respect to Alternative Policy Scenario (APS2), which considers greater potential for 
efficiency in the power generation sector, combined-cycle gas turbine plants will reach 
60% efficiency by 2040, whilst single-cycle thermal plants could reach 45%. APS3 allows 
for the share of solar to reach 30% of Singapore total electricity needs in 2040.
3.2.  Transport Sector
The demand for gasoline, natural gas, and diesel for Singapore’s road vehicles is assumed 
to be dependent primarily on vehicle growth. Consistent with vehicle quota targets set by 
the Land Transport Authority, vehicle growth would remain at 0.25% from 2015 to 2017, 
before going down to 0% from 2018 thereafter for the BAU scenario. Electricity demand 
for the mass rapid transit system is mainly driven by the expected expansion of railway 
length, which will increase from around 200 km in 2015 to 344 km by 2040, an annual 
average growth rate (AAGR) of 2.2% per year. APS1 is like the BAU scenario here, as no 
further vehicle growth reductions or railway efficiency improvements have been assumed.
3.3.  Residential Sector
In the BAU scenario, electricity demand growth is assumed to follow an AAGR of 6.9% 
from 2015 to 2040. Electricity demand growth can be further reduced to an AAGR of 
6.7% in APS1. Demand for natural gas and oil products remains like the BAU scenario. 


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3.4.  Commercial Sector
In the BAU scenario, electricity demand is assumed to slow down at an AAGR of 0.8% from 
2015 to 2040, which will eventually end up below the baseline econometric forecasts in 
2040. APS1 will lead to a further reduction in AAGR for electricity demand to -0.9%. No 
reduction is expected from natural gas and oil consumption.
3.5.  Industry/Petrochemicals Sector
For industry, the BAU scenario assumes that natural gas, electricity, diesel, kerosene, 
residual fuel oil, as well as refinery gas demand will grow at an AAGR of 1.2% in 2015–2040. 
The demand growth will slow further to 1% in APS1, which is also 10% below econometric 
estimates in 2040. the BAU scenario and APS1 remain similar for the other fuels in the 
industry sector.
The production of ethylene is supposedly tied to policy targets to grow linearly to reach 
6 million tons per year by 2020, which translates to 22.2 Mtoe of naphtha produced 
(EDB, 2012) in the BAU scenario. Naphtha is used as an intermediary fuel to produce 
petrochemicals mainly stockpiled for exports from Singapore to other countries. Here, 
we assume that naphtha demand remains constant at 6,099.53 Mtoe on the observation 
that production figures remain like 2008, having just recovered from a large decline after 
the financial recession.
4. 
  Outlook Results
4.1.   Business-As-Usual Scenario
4.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Singapore’s total final energy consumption (TFEC) grew at an annual rate of 5%, from 
5.01 Mtoe in 1990 to 17.07 Mtoe in 2015. During the same period, oil was the dominant 
energy source, with 3.8 Mtoe and 11.59 Mtoe consumed in 1990 and 2015, respectively. 
About 38.8% of the country’s final energy is consumed for non-energy uses in 2015, 
particularly as feedstock for petrochemical production. In 1990, 27.1% of the TFEC was 
used in the transport sector although its share declined by almost 50%, reaching around 
13.8% only in 2015.
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Under the BAU scenario, the TFEC is projected to grow by 0.9% a year between 2015 and 
2040. The petrochemical sector is expected to remain stagnant in terms of growth (Figure 
15.1). The industry sector’s consumption will increase on average by 1.2% per year. The 
transport sector is projected to grow by 0.3% per year while the ‘others’ (residential and 
commercial) sector is projected to grow by 2.7% per year.
Under the BAU scenario, industry and non-energy consumption will be dominant in the 
TFEC. By the end of 2040, non-energy share in the TFEC will decline to 30.9% while the 
industry sector’s share will increase from 32.7% in 2015 to around 34.7% in 2040.
The transport sector’s share in the TFEC in 2015–2040 is expected to decrease to 11.7% 
from its 27.1% share in 1990. This decrease stems from the country’s national policies 
advocating for more efficient automobile technology and the promotion of public 
transport as the main means of transportation. In addition, the Certificate of Entitlement 
quotas are also expected to remain effective in curbing vehicle growth.
By fuel type, natural gas experienced the fastest growth in 1990–2015 at an average 
rate of 12.7% per year. The growth of natural gas was due to the increasing demand in 
its use mainly in the rapidly expanding industry sector. Also, in 1990–2015, electricity 
consumption grew at an average annual rate of 5.1%.
Figure 15.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Mtoe
-
5.00
1990
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Industry
Others
Transportation
Non-energy


291
Under the BAU scenario, the demand for natural gas is expected to continue expanding 
but at a slower average growth of 2% per year until 2040. Meanwhile, electricity demand 
will be growing at an average rate of 2.5% per year.
Oil is still expected to play a major role in the country’s TFEC. For the past 2 decades, that 
is, from 1990 to 2015, the share of oil fell from 76.1% to around 67.9%. Under the BAU 
scenario, oil’s share to the TFEC will fall to 64.1% in 2020 before falling further to 54.3% in 
2040. This decline is mainly due to the high growth in natural gas use, which will increase 
from its share of 7.3% in 2015 to 9.5% in 2040. Meanwhile, the share of electricity in the 
TFEC will increase to around 27.7% starting 2020 before rising further to 35.5% until 
2040. Figure 15.2 shows the final energy consumption by fuel.
4.1.2. 
 Primary energy supply
Total primary energy supply (TPES) grew by 4.4% per year, from 11.53 Mtoe in 1990 to 
33.63 Mtoe in 2015. Singapore’s dominant source of energy in 1990 was oil, and its supply 
increased by 2.9% yearly from 11.44 Mtoe in 1990 to 23.15 Mtoe in 2015. Following the 
construction of pipelines for gas-fired power plants – the first of which sourced gas from 
Malaysia in 1991 – and two more recent pipelines from Indonesia, the share of natural 
gas consequently increased. Natural gas consumption increased rapidly from 0.4 Mtoe in 
1992 to 9.39 Mtoe in 2015. 
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Figure 15.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
Mtoe
-
5.00
1990
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
2000
2015
2020
2030
2030
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Electricity
Heat
Others
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Figure 15.3: Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Mtoe
-
5.00
1990
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Others
Geothermal
Primary energy supply in the BAU scenario is projected to grow by 1.1% per year during 
2015–2040 (Figure 15.3). Amongst the energy sources, solar energy is expected to grow 
the fastest at 3.9% a year, followed by biomass (2.5% per year) and natural gas (2.2% per 
year). Natural gas demand is expected to grow in line with the expansion of gas-fired 
power plants. 
Singapore’s net generation capacity has already increased by more than 2,000 megawatts 
(MW) or about 20% of current installed capacity with more efficient combined-cycle gas 
turbines (Ministry of Trade and Industry, 2013). Nevertheless, oil is expected to remain 
the primary energy source, accounting for 58.2% of primary energy supply in 2040, 
followed by natural gas at 36.4%. 
4.1.3. 
 Power generation
Electricity generation grew by 4.8% per year from 15.7 terawatt-hours (TWh) to 50.41 
TWh in 1990–2015. The electricity generation mix has changed significantly over the 
past decade. Natural gas, which accounted for 28% of electricity generation in Singapore 
in 2001, grew rapidly to supply 95% of Singapore’s electricity in 2015. Thermal power 
generation from fuel oil was around 0.35 TWh in 2015. In the same period, biomass and 
solar took up a small proportion of the mix, totalling around 3.1%. 
In the BAU scenario, power generation is projected to increase at 2.5% per year as well, 
reaching 94.54 TWh in 2040. By type of fuel, generation from others, which comprise 
biomass and solar power, will have the fastest growth at an average rate of almost 6.6% 


293
per year. Power generation of others is expected to increase its share from a minimal share 
of 3.1% in 2015 to 8.1% in 2040. Coal started to be utilised in 2013 as a substitute for 
hydrogen and carbon monoxide as feedstock for the energy and petrochemical sectors. It 
is projected to grow only marginally at 2.5% per year.
After 2015, at least 90% of the country’s power generation mix will come from natural gas 
under the BAU scenario. Its share of the generation mix will gradually decline over time – 
from 95.0% in 2015 to 90.5% in 2040 – as more solar power is utilised. On the other hand, 
the share of oil will decline to 0.2% over the same period.
The average thermal efficiency of Singapore’s fossil-fuelled power plants was around 
30.3% in 1990 and improved to 49.5% in 2015 as more natural gas–fired power plants 
operated. In the BAU scenario, the thermal efficiency of fossil plants is expected to 
improve further to around 50.9% in 2040. That of natural gas plants will be 52% in 2040, 
and that of oil, 42%.
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Others
Geothermal
Figure 15.4: Electricity Generation, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculation.
TWh
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
4.1.4. 
 Energy indicators
Primary energy intensity, which is computed as the ratio of primary energy supply over 
GDP, is expected to decrease. Similarly, final energy intensity of Singapore (ratio of 
final energy consumption over GDP) will also be declining in 2015–2040. This decrease 
in energy intensity indicates that Singapore is moving towards a highly economically 
productive country; that is, less energy will be used to produce each unit of output. Energy 
and CO2 per capita increases as population growth is expected to remain lower than fossil 
fuel demand growth (Figure 15.5). 
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Figure 15.5: Energy Indicators, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, CO2 = carbon dioxide.
Source: Author’s calculation.
1990=100
-
5.0
1990
Energy Intensity
10.0
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
15.0
20.0
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita
4.2.  Energy Saving and CO2 Reduction Potential
4.2.1. 
 Final energy consumption
The TFEC under APS1 is projected to increase by 0.8% from 2015 to 2040. Like the 
BAU scenario, the non-energy sector grows at 0% per year. The ‘others’ (residential and 
commercial) sector grows at 2.5%; this is followed by the industry sector at 1.0% and the 
transport sector at 0.3%. APS2 and APS3 do not include energy conservation policies for 
end-demand and, hence, are like the BAU scenario. APS5, a combination of all APS, will 
have the same final energy consumption as that of APS1 (Figure 15.6).
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Figure 15.6: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APSs
Mtoe
1990
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Industry
Others
Transport
Non-energy


295
4.2.2. Primary energy supply
Results from APS2 show that the primary energy supply for 2015–2040 will increase at an 
average annual rate of 0.9%, a 1.89 Mtoe decrease from the BAU scenario (Figure 15.7) 
in 2040. This translates to a reduction of 4.2% from the BAU scenario in 2040. APS1 and 
APS3 will help lower primary energy supply by 1.01 Mtoe and 1.5 Mtoe, respectively, in 
2040. This illustrates that policies targeting end-user energy efficiency and renewables 
still play only a secondary role to power generation efficiency policies in reducing primary 
energy supply.
Most of the reduction in primary energy supply will come from natural gas at 1.89 Mtoe, 
which is a drop of 11.7% from the BAU scenario (Figure 15.8). Oil falls only by 0.14% as it 
is limited by the already-declining the BAU scenario consumption for power generation, 
as well as the large consumption in petrochemical non-energy use. Biomass consumption 
will remain relatively constant, whereas solar power progresses significantly but is still 
small in magnitude. Hence, this leads to increased consumption of others by 84.6%.
Figure 15.7: Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APSs 
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Mtoe
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Others
Geothermal
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Figure 15.8: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU and APS5 (2015 and 2040) 
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Source: Author’s calculation.
Mtoe
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
84.6%
–3.5%
–0.2%
–32.1%
4.2.3. 
 Power generation
Results from APS1 and APS5 show decreased electricity generation, registering a drop of 
4.4 TWh or 4.7% from the BAU scenario. APS2 and APS3 assume the same generation as 
the BAU scenario since these do not have energy-saving measures (Figure 15.9).
Figure 15.9: Electricity Generation, BAU and APSs
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour. 
Source: Author’s calculation.
TWh
0.0
BAU
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Others
Geothermal


297
4.2.4. 
 CO2 reduction potential
Under the BAU scenario, CO2 emissions from energy demand are projected to increase 
at an average annual rate of 1.3%, from 12.4 Mt-C in 2015 to around 17.2 Mt-C in 2040 
(Figure 15.10). 
CO2 emissions reduction potential comes mainly from improvements in thermal 
efficiency for power generation (APS2), with savings of 1.21 Mt-C in 2040, equivalent 
to a 7.1% decrease from the BAU scenario. Educational policies and incentives that target 
behavioural changes in end-consumers of energy are also very beneficial, with APS1 
registering emissions reduction of 0.59 Mt-C in the same period (a 3.4% reduction from 
the BAU scenario). Increased use of solar power offers large emissions reduction of 2 
Mt-C (a 11.7% reduction from BAU). Overall, APS5 will contribute to emissions reduction 
of 3.38 Mt-C, which is a 19.7% reduction from the BAU scenario. Under this scenario, 
carbon emissions will increase at an AAGR of 0.4% from 2015 to 2040, compared with 
1.3% under the BAU scenario. 
Figure 15.10: CO2 Emissions from Energy Supply, BAU and APS5 (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Million Tons of Carbon
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
BAU
2015
2040
APS
3.38 Mtoe,-19.7%
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5.   Implications and Policy Recommendations
The Singapore government has been progressively implementing new strategies to help 
incentivise and advocate the adoption of clean energy technologies and conservation 
behaviour amongst industries and households. These programmes include several funding 
schemes, including the Clean Development Mechanism, Documentation Grant that help 
provide companies with financial assistance to engage carbon consultancy services, and 
Grant for Energy Efficient Technologies to help encourage industry investments in energy-
efficient equipment or technologies (Energy Efficiency Programme Office, 2013b). 
Zero-Capex (Capital Expenditure) or similar commercial contracts can also be actively 
promoted to increase the involvement of energy service companies to help conserve 
energy. 
Solar adoption, an electric vehicle car-sharing programme, as well as smart technologies 
pave the way to further reduce carbon in industries and households in the future. 
There is also an initiative to improve the petrochemical industry’s energy efficiency and 
competitiveness by way of a ‘heat-integration’ plan (Lim, 2013). 
Singapore has also taken measures to ensure that its energy needs are diversified across 
more countries for energy imports rather than depending on gas pipeline flows from 
Malaysia and Indonesia as Singapore transits towards using more natural gas to power 
its electricity needs. Currently, Singapore plans to increase LNG import storage facilities, 
and is appointing one or two companies to import LNG for Singapore in the short-term 
future. Coal use for co-generation, as well as the greater adoption of solar energy, shows 
efforts made towards fuel mix diversification.
As shown in the forecast results for the BAU scenario with 2015 as the base year, 
Singapore is already on track to meet its projected 2020 targets of hitting 77.2 million 
tons of MT-CO2, (NCCS, 2016c) where estimations show the potential to go as low as 
13.42 Mt-C or approximately 50 million tons of MT-CO2 if much greater efforts are taken 
to reduce emissions.
Despite the limitations posed by its small size and the paucity of renewable energy 
sources, Singapore’s long-term commitment to building a sustainable city will ensure 
that the efforts of using energy efficiently and in an environmentally viable manner will 
continue to receive broad support.


299
Notes
APS 1 to APS5 are results from an academic exercise and should not be taken to reflect 
Singapore’s national position for climate policies.
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Ministry of Trade and Industry (2014), ‘SolarNova Factsheet,’ https://www.mti.gov.sg/
MTIInsights/SiteAssets/Pages/Budget-2014/SolarNova.pdf (accessed 12 October 
2018).
Ministry of Trade and Industry (2013), ‘Speech by Mr S Iswaran’ at the Committee of 
Supply Debate under Head V, 11 March, https://www.mti.gov.sg/NewsRoom/Pages/
Mr-S-Iswaran,-Second-Minister-For-Trade-and-Industry,-During-The-Committee-Of-
Supply-Debate-Under-Head.aspx (accessed 12 October 2018).
Ministry of Trade and Industry (2012), ‘Factsheet Nuclear Energy Pre-feasibility Study,’ 
https://www.mti.gov.sg/NewsRoom/Documents/Pre-FS%20factsheet.pdf (accessed 
12 October 2018).
Ministry of Trade and Industry (2007), ‘National Energy Policy Report - Energy for Growth,’ 
http://app.mti.gov.sg/data/pages/2546/doc/NEPR.pdf (accessed 12 October 2018).
National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS) (2012), ‘Speech on Climate Change by Mr 
Teo Chee Hean, Deputy Prime Minister, Coordinating Minister for National Security and 
Minister for Home Affairs, at the Committee of Supply Debate,’ http://app.nccs.gov.sg/
news_details.aspx?nid=642&pageid=97 (accessed 12 October 2018).
National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS) (2015), ‘Singapore’s Submission to the 
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),’ https://www.
nccs.gov.sg/news/singapore%E2%80%99s-submission-united-nations-framework-
convention-climate-change-unfccc (accessed 12 October 2018).
National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS) (2016a), ‘Singapore’s Approach to 
Alternative 
Energy’, 
https://www.nccs.gov.sg/climate-change-and-singapore/
national-circumstances/singapores-approach-alternative-energy (accessed 12 October 
2018).
National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS) (2016b), ‘Households,’ https://www.
nccs.gov.sg/climate-change-and-singapore/domestic-actions/reducing-emissions/
households (accessed 12 October 2018).


303
National Climate Change Secretariat (NCCS) (2016c), ‘Singapore’s Emissions Profile.’ 
https://www.nccs.gov.sg/climate-change-and-singapore/national-circumstances/
singapores-emissions-profile (accessed 12 October 2018).
National Environment Agency (2014), ‘Energy Efficiency National Partnership,’ http://
app.e2singapore.gov.sg/Programmes/Energy_Efficiency_National_Partnership.aspx 
(accessed 12 October 2018).
Tang See Kit (2018), ‘Sizzling Competition, ‘Encouraging’ Sign-ups as Electricity Market 
Opens Up in Jurong,’ Channel News Asia, 17 May.
Veras, O. (2016), ‘Singapore aims high as Asia’s LNG trading hub’, The Business Times, 
24 February 2016.
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THAILAND COUNTRY REPORT
1.   Background
Thailand is in the middle of Southeast Asia, with the Pacific Ocean on the southeast coast 
and the Indian Ocean on the southwest coast. Its land area is approximately 513,115 
square kilometres, with great plains in the centre, mountainous areas in the north, and 
highlands in the northeast. Its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 was about US$393.7 
billion (in constant 2010 US$ terms). In 2015, its population was 65.7 million and income 
per capita was around US$5,989.
Thailand is an energy importer, especially of crude oil, because of very limited domestic 
resources. Its indigenous energy resources include natural gas, coal (only lignite), and 
biomass. In 2015, proven reserves were 0.2 billion barrels (26.1 million cubic metres) of 
oil, and 7.3 trillion cubic feet (0.21 trillion cubic metres) of natural gas. Proven reserves of 
lignite amounted to 1,181 million tons but this number was published in 2013. 
Thailand’s total primary energy supply (TPES) reached 135 million tons of oil equivalent 
(Mtoe) in 2015. Oil accounted for the largest share at around 38.7%, followed by natural 
gas (28.1%) and coal (12.5%). ‘Others’ accounted for the remaining 20.7%. In 2015, net 
imports of energy accounted for 46.5% of the TPES. Due to very limited indigenous oil 
resources, Thailand imported around 83.6% of its oil and most of its bituminous coal. 
Although the country produces large quantities of natural gas, about 29.9% of its use was 
imported from Myanmar and other countries. 
In Thailand, natural gas is used as a major energy source for power generation. In 2015, 
primary natural gas supply registered at 37.9 Mtoe; around 75.3% of this level was sourced 
from domestic supply and the rest was imported from neighbouring countries. Liquefied 
natural gas was also sourced from other countries. Coal was mainly consumed in power 
generation and industry. It was also heavily used in cement and paper production.
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305
Thailand generated about 165.7 terawatt-hours (TWh) of power in 2015. The majority 
of the country’s power generation used thermal sources (coal, natural gas, and oil), 
accounting for 91.5% of generation. It is followed by hydro at 3.5% while geothermal, solar, 
small hydro, and biomass made up the remainder.
2.   Modelling Assumptions
GDP growth in 1990–2015 was a moderate 4.2% per year. Thailand’s GDP is assumed to 
grow at an average rate of 3.8% per year in 2015–2040. Population growth is also projected 
to be reasonably slow at around 0.03% per year in 2015–2040, compared with average 
growth of about 0.6% per year in 1990–2015.
Natural gas and coal are projected to be the largest energy sources for power generation. 
Conversely, the shares of fuel oil and diesel power plants are projected to remain constant. 
Nuclear power and renewable energy are projected to increase their shares in the power 
generation mix in the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS). 
Thailand expects its energy-saving goals to be achieved through the implementation 
of energy efficiency programmes in all sectors. In the industry sector, improvements 
in technology development in manufacturing processes should help improve energy 
efficiency. In the residential and commercial (‘others’) sectors, large energy savings are 
projected, driven by programmes to promote public awareness of energy efficiency and 
energy efficiency labelling. In the transport sector, further developments in the Bangkok 
metro area railway network will contribute to energy savings. Significant improvements in 
energy efficiency in passenger vehicles are also expected to be achieved in line with new 
developments in car technologies and the introduction of the next phase of the eco-car 
programme phase 2. 
Government policies will continue to encourage the increased use of alternative fuels, 
especially biofuels. Growth of CO2 emissions is also expected to be reduced through 
the increased adoption of more energy-efficient and lower-emissions technologies. In 
particular, in the APS, nuclear power and renewable energy sources are expected to help 
reduce CO2 emissions from electricity generation. Gasohol and biodiesel as oil alternatives 
are also expected to help curb CO2 emissions from transportation.
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3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario
In 1990–2015, Thailand’s final energy consumption grew at a high rate of 5% per year, 
from 28.9 Mtoe in 1990 to 98.0 Mtoe in 2015. Given moderate economic growth and 
low population growth rate, final energy consumption is projected to grow moderately at 
around 2.9% per year between 2015 and 2040. 
Oil was the dominant energy source in final energy consumption, accounting for 49.3 
Mtoe, or a 50.2% share, in 2015. Electricity was the second-largest energy source, 
accounting for 15 Mtoe, or a 15.3% share, in 2015. 
Oil is expected to remain the largest final energy source throughout the projection period. 
Its share is projected to increase from 2015 level to 52% in 2040. In 2040, the shares of 
electricity will remain the same at the current level, 15.3%, but natural gas and coal in final 
energy consumption are projected to slightly increase to 10.7% and 8.5%, respectively 
(Figure 16.1).
Figure 16.1: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
50
100
150
200
250
Mtoe
-
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Electricity
Heat
Others


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Thailand Country Report
The industry sector has the smallest share, 8.7 Mtoe, in the total final energy in 1990. 
While consumption in the sector highly increased at an average rate of 5.2% a year in 1990–
2015, the share of industry increased from 30.0% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2015, making it the 
largest consuming sector. The industry sector is projected to remain the largest consumer, 
accounting for 34.1% in the final energy consumption in 2040. In addition, non-energy 
use, which consists mainly of naphtha, will also increase its consumption like the industry 
sector. As a result, the ‘others’ (residential and commercial) sector, will account for the 
smallest proportion of final energy consumption at 17.2% in 2040, showing the declining 
trend of its share as has been observed since 1990. 
Primary energy supply grew at an average annual rate of 4.7%, from 42.6 Mtoe in 1990 
to 135.0 Mtoe in 2015, driven largely by fast economic development between 1990 and 
1996 and moderate economic growth after 1997. This growth in primary energy supply 
was achieved despite the severe economic crisis in 1997–1998 and the world economic 
crisis in 2008. In 2015, the major sources of primary energy were oil, natural gas, and 
coal with shares of 38.7% (52.3 Mtoe), 28.1% (37.9 Mtoe), and 12.5% (16.8 Mtoe), 
respectively. Although oil remained the largest source in 1990–2015, its share in primary 
energy demand declined a little from 42.1% in 1990 to 38.7% in 2015. Natural gas, which is 
mainly consumed in the power generation sector, became an important source of energy 
with its share in primary energy demand increasing significantly from 11.7% in 1990 to 
28.1% in 2015. Contrastingly, the share of hydropower declined from 1.0% in 1990 to only 
0.4% in 2015 (Figure 16.2).
Figure 16.2: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
50
100
-
150
200
250
Mtoe
Industry
Others
Transport
Non-energy


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In the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, primary energy demand is projected to grow 
at about 2.5% per year from 2015 to 2040, reaching 250.8 Mtoe in 2040. The highest 
average annual growth rate is expected in oil (3%), with consumption expected to reach 
109.1 Mtoe in 2040, followed by coal and natural gas. The growth rate of coal is expected 
to be around 2.8% in 2015–2040. Natural gas growth is expected to be slower than that 
of primary energy demand. Its average growth rate is about 1.4% per year between 2015 
and 2040.
In 1990, total power generation registered at 44.2 TWh and reached 167.7 TWh in 2015 
with an average growth rate of 5.4% per year. Figure 16.4 shows that natural gas has been 
a major fuel for power generation since 1990. Natural gas power generation grew with a 
robust rate of 7.8% per year from 17.8 TWh (40.2% share) in 1990 to 117.0 TWh (70.6% 
share) in 2015. Coal has the second-largest share at 25.0% in 1990, but its share shrank 
to 19.9% in 2015. Power generation by oil was the smallest, with only 1.7 TWh in 2015.
Figure 16.3: Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent. 
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
50
100
-
150
200
250
Mtoe
300
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


309
Figure 16.4: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hours.
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
50
100
150
TWh
-
200
250
300
350
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
In the BAU scenario, power generation is expected to grow at around 2.3% per year in 
2015–2040 and will reach 294.6 TWh in 2040. In 2040, natural gas will remain to be a 
dominant fuel in power generation, with the highest share of 54.6% or 161.0 TWh. Coal 
will still be the second-largest source of power with 24.4% share, or 71.8 TWh during the 
period. Power generation from hydro will increase slightly by 3.8% per year, from 5.8 TWh 
in 2015 to 14.6 TWh in 2040 (Figure 16.4). 
Thermal efficiency of natural gas improved the highest improvement as combined cycle 
gas turbines technology was applied. The 40.0% efficiency of natural gas in 1990 jumped 
to 47.9% in 2015 and is expected to remain unchanged until 2040. Coal thermal efficiency 
declined almost 4.0% from 1990 to 2015, but the efficiency is also assumed to improve 
from 33.9% in 2015 to 37.3% in 2040 (Figure 16.5). 
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Energy intensity reached 343 toe/million at 2010 US$ in 2015. In the BAU scenario, 
energy intensity is projected to decline by 1.2% per year to reach 251 toe/million 2010 
US$ in 2040. Energy per capita will move upward from 2.1 toe per person in 2015 to 3.8 
toe per person in 2040 (Figure 16.6).
Figure 16.5: Thermal Efficiency by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
2040
Natural Gas
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
0
10
20
%
30
40
50
60
Oil
Coal
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.
Figure 16.6: Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2000
1990
0
100
200
1990=100
300
CO2 per Capita
400
500
600
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Energy
Energy per Capita
Energy Intensity
Sources: 1990–2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2020–2040 compiled by author.


311
Energy elasticity in 1990–2015 was 1.2, indicating that energy demand rose faster than 
economic growth. In the BAU scenario, energy elasticity is projected at 0.8 between 2015 
and 2040. It means that energy demand will grow at a slower rate than economic output. 
3.2  Energy Saving and CO2 Reduction Potential
 
3.2.1   Final Demand
In the APS (APS5), final energy consumption is projected to grow at 1.6% per year, from 
98.0 Mtoe in 2015 to 147.2 Mtoe in 2040. This is lower by 25.8% than the BAU scenario, 
which will grow at an average annual rate of 2.9% in 2040. The majority of energy savings 
will be achieved through energy efficiency improvement programmes implemented in the 
industry (20.8%) and the transport (69.7%) sectors. Improvements will also be achieved 
in the ‘others’ sector (17%) (Figure 16.7).
Figure 16.7: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Sources:  2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2040 compiled by author.
Mtoe
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
–69.7%
–17.0%
0.0%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–20.8%
3.2.2  Primary Energy Supply
In the APS, growth in primary energy supply is projected to be much slower than in BAU, 
increasing at 1.2% per year (compared with 2.5% in the BAU scenario) to reach 184 Mtoe 
in 2040. Primary energy supply is expected to be about 26.6% lower than in the BAU 
scenario in 2040, an energy saving of about 66.8 Mtoe. 
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Oil and coal are projected to increase at slower average annual rates of 1.7% and 1.3%, 
respectively (3.0% and 2.8% in the BAU scenario). Natural gas is projected to decrease 
at an average annual rate of -0.4% (1.4% in the BAU scenario) from 53.4 Mtoe in 2015 
to 34.2 Mtoe in 2040. The lower growth rates compared to the BAU scenario are mainly 
achieved through energy efficiency and conservation measures on the demand side. The 
differences in the projections between the two scenarios are shown in Figure 16.8.
3.3  Projected Energy Savings
The difference between primary energy supply in BAU and the APS in 2040 is 66.8 
Mtoe (Figure 16.9 ). This represents the potential energy savings that could be achieved 
if energy efficiency and conservation goals and action plans were implemented. Oil will 
contribute the largest energy savings at 29.4 Mtoe. Meanwhile, energy savings from 
natural gas and coal will reach 19.2 Mtoe and 10.1 Mtoe, respectively, in 2040. However, 
the contribution of non-fossil energy sources will also be 10.6 Mtoe lower than in the BAU 
scenario. 
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Sources:  2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2040 compiled by author.
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
–30.4%
–27.0%
–36.0%
–14.5%
Figure 16.8: Primary Energy Demand by Source, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
Mtoe
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0


313
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Sources: 1990 and 2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2040 compiled by author.
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
–66.8 Mtoe, –26.6%
Figure 16.9: Total Primary Energy Supply, BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 2040)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Mtoe
In final energy consumption, the savings in the APS in 2040 will reach 51.1 Mtoe. The 
largest savings are expected to be achieved in the transport sector at 31.3 Mtoe. On the 
other hand, the industry and the ‘others’ sectors are expected to save 14.1 Mtoe and 5.8 
Mtoe of energy, respectively. 
3.4  CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption
CO2 emissions from energy consumption are projected to increase by 2.5% per year on 
average, from 220.6 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 410.1 Mt-C in 2040 under 
the BAU scenario. 
Under the APS, the average annual growth in CO2 emissions in 2013–2040 is projected to 
be 0.5%, with emissions level of 252 Mt-C in 2040. The difference in the CO2 emissions 
between the BAU scenario and the APS is 158.2 Mt-C or 38.6%. This reduction in CO2 
emissions highlights the range of benefits that can be achieved through energy efficiency 
improvements and savings via action plans as well as shifting to lower carbon energy 
(Figure 16.10).
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3.5  Thailand’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions 
 
 
 (INDC)
3.5.1  Thailand’s INDC in Greenhouse Gases 
Thailand submitted its INDC in greenhouse gas to the United Nations Framework 
Convention on Climate Change on 1 October 2015. The target of greenhouse gas 
reduction, according to its INDC, would be 20% off from BAU by 2030; this was forecast 
nationally in 2005. CO2 emissions in the BAU scenario were estimated at 555 Mt-C in 
2030. Consequently, the INDC also targets reduced CO2 of 113 Mt-C in the energy 
sector. 
3.5.2  INDC Achievement and the APS
Under the APS, carbon emission reduction in 2030 was estimated at 80 Mt-C, about 
227 Mt-C lower than 307 Mt-C of the BAU scenario (East Asia Summit outlook). This 
reduction amount of 80 Mt-C is equal to 288 Mt-C. In this regard, the APS’s CO2 reduction 
targets can be achieved through the INDC targets (reduction of 113 Mt-C) in the energy 
sector. Thailand’s policy on energy savings should be satisfied adequately based on the 
target of CO2 reduction commitment described in its INDC. 
Figure 16.10: CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption, 
BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 2040)
Million Tons of Carbon
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-C = million tons of carbon.
Sources: 1990 and 2015 compiled by IEA (2017), 2040 compiled by author.
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
–158.2 Mt-C, –38.6%


315
4. 
  Implications and Policy Recommendations
Strong economic growth before the 1997 Asian financial crisis contributed to relatively 
high energy intensity in Thailand in 1990–2011. However, energy intensity has declined 
since the economy recovered from the 1997 crisis. Furthermore, Thailand’s energy 
efficiency programmes in a wide range of areas (including the industry, transport, and 
building sectors) and higher oil prices in the world market will contribute to a continued 
decline in energy intensity.
Improving energy efficiency will also help Thailand (which is an oil importer) address the 
challenges posed by high world oil prices. Thailand is committed to reduce the intensity 
of energy consumption, particularly oil consumption, and is looking for more sustainable 
energy sources and environment-friendly fuels. The more Thailand saves energy, the 
less sensitive it will be to fluctuations in world energy prices and supply. Furthermore, 
Thailand has realised that energy savings is important; thus, the country should put more 
effort into it. 
Although the country has an alternative policy for the next 23 years, oil will remain a major 
energy source. Oil is one of the most sensitive energy sources in terms of price and security. 
Thailand should focus more on saving oil to be less dependent on this fuel. Furthermore, 
energy use in the transport sector will become the smallest in the future compared to 
other sectors. Nonetheless, this sector is also less productive than the others. It means 
that it consumes more energy, but adds less value. The more energy saving effort in the 
transport sector, the more benefit it will be for the economy as a whole.
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VIET NAM COUNTRY REPORT
1.   Background
Viet Nam has a total land area of about 331,111 square kilometres and lies in Southeast 
Asia. In 2015, its population was 91.7 million and its gross domestic product (GDP) was 
$154.5 billion in 2010 US$ terms. The commercial sector contributes the most to Viet 
Nam’s GDP (38.3%), followed by the industry sector (34.2%), agriculture (16.1%), and 
‘others’ (11.4%). GDP per capita was US$1,685 in 2015.
Viet Nam possesses considerable indigenous energy resources. It has 3,390 million tons 
of proven recoverable reserves of coal, 460 million cubic metres of crude oil reserves, and 
610 billion cubic metres of gas reserves. 
Viet Nam’s total primary energy supply (TPES) was 70.1 million tons of oil equivalent 
(Mtoe) in 2015. Coal represented the largest share of the country’s TPES at 35.9%; oil 
was second at 22.2%, followed by natural gas (13.7%), hydro (7.8%), and others (20.3%). 
Viet Nam is a net exporter of crude oil and coal but is an importer of petroleum products 
because of limited capacity at the Dung Quat oil refinery (6.5 million tons a year) that 
could meet around 45% of domestic demand. 
Coal is mainly used in the industry sector with consumption of 25.2 Mtoe in 2015, while 
natural gas is largely used to generate electricity. 
Viet Nam had around 38.5 gigawatts (GW) of installed generating capacity and produced 
159.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in 2015. Most of its electricity generation 
comes from thermal sources (coal, natural gas, and oil), accounting for 60.2% of total 
generation; the remaining is hydro (39.5%) and others (around 0.3%). 
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317
2.   Modelling Assumptions
In this outlook, Viet Nam’s GDP is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 6.0% from 
2015 to 2040. Growth is projected to be faster in the first outlook period, increasing at 7% 
per year between 2015 and 2020. For the remaining periods of 2020–2030 and 2030–
2040, the country’s economic growth will moderate to an annual rate of 6.2% and 5.2%, 
respectively. Population growth is projected to increase at a much slower rate, increasing 
by 0.6% per year between 2015 and 2040. 
The share of electricity generated from coal-fired power plants is projected to increase 
considerably because of the expense of other energy types (natural gas and hydro). Viet 
Nam is expected to increase its imports of electricity, particularly from the Lao People’s 
Democratic Republic and China. 
Viet Nam’s energy-saving goals are assumed to be 3%–5% of total energy consumption, 
equivalent to 5 Mtoe, between 2006 and 2010, and 5%–8% of total energy consumption, 
equivalent to 13.1 Mtoe between 2010 and 2015, in line with the national target on 
energy efficiency and conservation (EEC).
In 2010, the Law on Energy Efficiency and Conservation, approved by the National 
Assembly, focused on priority policies, such as (i) increasing the use of renewable energy 
in line with Viet Nam’s potential and conditions, (ii) contributing to energy security 
and environmental protection, and (iii) promoting energy efficiency in production and 
residential areas through regulations and technological measures on energy efficiency and 
renewable energy.
In November 2015, the Renewable Energy Development Strategy of Viet Nam was 
approved by the Prime Minister’s Decision1 to accelerate the expansion and use of 
renewable energy sources; gradually increase renewable energy share in national 
energy production and consumption and ensure less dependence on fossil sources; and 
contribute to better energy security, mitigating climate change, environmental protection, 
and sustainable socio-economic development. 
1 
Decision No. 2068/QD-TTg issued on 25 November 2015 to approve the Vietnam Renewable Energy Development 
Strategy to 2030 outlook up to 2050 (in Vietnamese).
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The strategic targets are: 
• 
Increase the share of renewable energy-based electricity to 4.5% in 2020, 15% in 
2030, and 33.1% in 2050.
• 
Increase the proportion of households using solar water-heating devices to 12% in 
2020, 26% in 2030, and 50% in 2050.
• 
Scale up the application of biogas technologies with a construction volume of from 
about 4 million cubic metres (m3) in 2015 to 8 million m3 in 2020, to approximately 
60 million m3 in 2030, and 100 million m3 in 2050.
• 
Increase the production of biofuels to meet the transport sector’s fuel demand: 5% in 
2020, 13% in 2030, and 25% in 2050.
From the above analysis, in this study, Alternative Policy Scenarios (APSs) are proposed: 
EEC scenarios (APS1), improvement of energy efficiencies in power generation (APS2), 
and development of renewable energy (APS3).
• 
APS1: Develop EEC scenarios in potential sectors on the demand side, including:
o 
Industry: Improve technologies in making cement, bricks, non-baked bricks, 
iron, and steel. For the remaining other industries, EEC measures are assumed to 
be implemented to reduce energy consumption by around 15% by 2040.   
o 
Transport: Implement EEC measures such as passenger transport mode 
shift from private to public, freight transport switch from road, and increased 
penetration of electric vehicles. 
o 
Residential: Replace inefficient devices with efficient ones, such as high- 
efficient lamps in lighting, efficient refrigerators, and air conditioners in cooling 
homes.  
o 
Commercial: Use EEC measures in the commercial sector to reduce 12% of 
energy consumption by 2040.
• 
APS2: Improve energy efficiency in thermal power plants
 
The efficiency of coal-fired thermal power plants is assumed to increase to 40% by 
2040 compared with 38% in the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, while natural gas 
with combined cycle gas turbines technologies will increase to 60% by 2040 compared 
with 52% in the BAU scenario.


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Viet Nam Country Report
• 
APS3: Develop renewable energy technologies
 
Installed electricity generating capacity from renewable energy is assumed to reach 
40,200 megawatts (MW) in 2040 with solar photovoltaic contributing 20,000 MW; 
wind,10,000 MW; small hydro, 5,000 MW; biomass,5,000 MW; and biogas, 200 MW.
 
Moreover, the Renewable Energy Development Strategy has set the targets for using 
biofuels in the transport sector, solar water heaters in the residential sector, and 
biogas cook stoves in rural areas to reduce dependency on oil and curb CO2 emissions. 
Therefore, it is assumed that by 2040, the share of households using solar water-
heating devices in urban and rural areas would reach 60% and 25%, respectively, 
biogas cook stoves in rural areas would reach 15%; and the substitution of ethanol for 
gasoline in the transport sector would reach around 20%. 
• 
APS5: Combining from APS1 to APS3. 
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual  Scenario
3.1.1. 
 Total final energy consumption
Viet Nam’s total final energy consumption (TFEC) in 2015 was 56.3 Mtoe, which has 
increased at 5.1% per year, 3.5 times more than its 1990 level of 16.1 Mtoe. On a per 
sector basis, the fastest growth occurred in the transport sector (8.4% per year), followed 
by the industry sector (6.8%), and the residential/commercial (‘others’) sector (3.0% per 
year). Non-energy use is expected to grow at 16.3% per year.
For 2015–2040, the TFEC is projected to increase at an average rate of 4% per year 
under the BAU scenario. Growth is driven by strong economic growth, which is assumed 
to be at an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, and the rising population at an average 
annual growth rate of 0.6%. On a per sector basis, the strongest growth in consumption 
is projected to occur in transport, increasing by 5.2% per year. This is followed by the 
industry sector (4.9% per year) and the residential/commercial (‘others’) sector (1.6% per 
year). Non-energy use is expected to grow at 5.1% per year. Figure 17.1 shows the final 
energy consumption by sector from 1990 to 2040.


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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Figure 17.1: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
20.0
-
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Mtoe
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
The bulk of the country’s energy consumption (around 63% in 1990) comes from the 
residential/commercial (‘others’) sector, where biomass fuel used for residential cooking 
takes the dominant share. This share will decrease from 37.2% in 2015 to 20.7% by 2040 
due to the substitution of biomass fuels by commercial fuels with higher efficiency. The 
decreasing share of the sector is due to the growing economy. Economic growth will 
translate to improvements in the standard of living, thus, increasing the transition from 
biomass to modern fuels.
Starting from 2015 up to 2040, the industry sector will be the largest consuming sector 
in Viet Nam. The share of energy consumption in the industry sector will increase from 
42.0% in 2015 to 51.6% in 2040. The smaller consumer is the transport sector although 
its share will increase slowly from 18.6% in 2015 to 24.9% in 2040. 
Meanwhile, other fuels (mostly biomass) are the most-consumed product, accounting for 
73.9% of the TFEC in 1990; however, this declined to 28.1% in 2015. Oil was the second 
most-consumed product, accounting for 14.5% of the TFEC in 1990 and increasing to 
25.3% in 2015. The share of coal consumed from 1990 to 2015 increased from 8.3% to 
22.5%. Electricity had a small share of 3.3% in 1990 but increased significantly to 21.6% 
in 2015. 


321
On a per fuel basis under the BAU scenario, natural gas is projected to exhibit the fastest 
growth in final energy consumption, increasing at 6.1% per year between 2015 and 2040. 
Electricity and oil are projected to have the second-highest growth rate of 5.3% per year, 
followed by coal at 4.5%. Other fuels (mostly biomass) are projected to decrease at an 
annual rate of 1.8% due to the transition from biomass to modern fuels.
Other fuels (dominated by biomass) had the largest share at 28.1% in 2015 but this share 
will reduce significantly to 6.7% in 2040. Oil products had the second-largest share of 
25.3% in 2015; this share is projected to increase to 34.3% in 2040. The third-largest share 
of demand is coal, which is projected to increase from 22.5% in 2015 to 25.4% in 2040. 
On the other hand, electricity and natural gas were used primarily in the industry sector 
with shares of 21.6% and 2.6% in 2015, respectively. In 2040, the shares of electricity and 
natural gas will increase up to 29.2% and 4.3%, respectively (Figure 17.2).
Figure 17.2: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
20.0
-
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Mtoe
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Coal accounted for the largest share of 35.9% of the TPES in 2015 and will increase  to 
56.2% in 2040. The share of oil was 22.2% in 2015 and will increase to 26.3% in 2040. This 
growth is  due to the projected decline of natural gas (from 13.7% to 12.1%), hydro (from 
7.8% to 2.3%), and others (from 20.3% to 3.1%).
3.1.2. 
 Total primary energy supply
Viet Nam’s total primary energy supply (TPES) grew at a higher rate than final energy 
consumption; it increased at 5.6% per year or 3.9 times, from 17.9 Mtoe in 1990 to 70.1 
Mtoe in 2015. Amongst the major energy sources, the fastest-growing were natural gas, 
hydro, coal, and oil. Natural gas consumption grew at an average annual rate of 38.1% 
between 1990 and 2015 while hydro, coal, and oil grew at 10.4%, 10.2%, and 7.2% per 
year, respectively. 
In the BAU scenario, Viet Nam’s TPES is projected to increase at an annual rate of 4.7% or 
3.1 times, from 70.1 Mtoe in 2015 to 219.9 Mtoe in 2040. The fastest growth is expected 
in coal, increasing at an annual average rate of 6.6% between 2015 and 2040, followed 
by oil (5.4%) and natural gas (4.1%) while hydro and other fuels (mostly biomass) will 
decrease slightly and strongly at 0.2% and 2.9% per year, respectively.  Figure 17.3 shows 
the primary energy supply by source in 1990–2040.
50.0
-
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Mtoe
Figure 17.3: Primary Energy Supply, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


323
3.1.3. 
 Power generation
Power generation output increased at 12.4% per year or 18.4 times, from 8.7 TWh in 
1990 to 159.8 TWh in 2015. The fastest growth occurred in natural gas power generation 
(42.9% per year), followed by coal (13.8%) and hydropower (10.4% per year). This fast 
growth is due to the 5.8% decrease of oil. 
Power generation is projected to increase at an average rate of 5% per year, or 3.4 times 
between 2015 and 2040, to meet electricity demand under the BAU scenario. The fastest 
growth will be in coal power generation (8.3% per year), followed by natural gas (3.6% 
per year). This fast growth is due to the decrease of hydro, oil, and other (mostly small 
hydropower). Figure 17.4 shows the power generation output by the type of fuel under 
the BAU scenario from 1990 to 2040. 
By the end of 2015, the majority of the country’s power came from hydropower, which 
comprised about 39.5% of the total power generation mix. The share of coal-fired power 
generation was around 31.9% while the rest were from natural gas (28.1%), oil (0.2%), and 
other power generation (around 0.3%).
In the BAU scenario, coal will be the major fuel used for power generationbetween 2020 
and 2040, with its share increasing from 64.0% in 2020 to 68.9% in 2040. On the other 
hand, the share of hydro in the total power generation will decline from 20.4% in 2020 to 
around 11.0% in 2040.
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
TWh
Figure 17.4: Power Generation by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Author’s calculations.
100.0
-
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.1.4. 
 Energy indicators 
From 1990 to 2015, Viet Nam’s energy intensity showed a decreasing trend. Both primary 
and final energy intensities of the country decreased from 1,006 toe/million and 905 toe/
million 2010 US$ in 1990 to 453 toe/million and 364 toe/million 2010 US$ in 2015. 
This was due to the high economic growth, which significantly reduced the use of biomass 
fuels in the residential sector, although the energy requirement in the industry and the 
transport sectors had been increasing in recent years. The final energy intensity under 
the BAU scenario is estimated to continue the decreasing trend from 364 toe/million to 
228toe/million 2010 US$ by 2040. This decreasing trend indicates that energy will be used 
efficiently for economic development.
Meanwhile, the primary energy per capita increased from 0.27 toe/person in 1990 to 0.76 
toe/person in 2015; it will continue to increase to 2.06 toe/person by 2040. This indicates 
that, in the future,  living standards and people’s incomes will increase, resulting in rising 
total primary energy consumption (TPEC) per capita.
Regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, CO2 intensity and CO2 per energy increased 
from 265 t-C/million 2010 US$ and 0.26 t-C/toe in 1990 to 317 t-C/million 2010 US$ 
and 0.7 t-C/toe in 2015, respectively. In the BAU scenario, CO2 intensity and CO2 per 
energy will also slightly increase by 2020 at 417 t-C/million 2010 US$ and 0.84 t-C/toe. 
Beyond 2020, CO2 intensity will decline until 2040 at 295 t-C/million 2010 US$, while CO2 
per energy will  slightly increase at around 0.89 t-C/toe. CO2 per capita will continuously 
increase due to energy demand rising faster than population growth. (Figure 17.5).
Figure 17.5: Energy Indicators (1990–2040)
Source: Author’s calculations.
1990=100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Energy Intensity
Energy per capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita


325
3.2.  Energy Savings and CO2 Reduction Potential
3.2.1. 
 Total final energy consumption
In the Alternative Policy Scenario (or APS5, the TFEC is projected to increase at a slower 
rate of 3.4% per year (compared with 4.0% in the BAU scenario), from 56.3 Mtoe in 2015 
to 130.2 Mtoe in 2040 because of EEC measures (APS1) in the industry, transport, and 
‘others’ sectors. The total final consumption by sector in APSs compared to the BAU 
scenario is presented in Figure 17.6.
The bulk of the savings are expected to occur in the industry sector with 13.7 Mtoe 
(equivalent to 17.5% reduction), followed by the transport sector with 4.3 Mtoe 
(equivalent to 11.5% reduction), and the ‘others’ sector with 2.8 Mtoe (equivalent to 9.0% 
reduction).
An improvement in end-use technologies and the introduction of energy management 
systems are expected to contribute to the slower rate of consumption growth, particularly 
in the industry, transport, and ‘others’ sectors (Figure 17.7).
Figure 17.6: Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector in BAU and APSs
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Mtoe
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Industry
Transport
Others
Non-energy
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.2. 
 Total primary energy supply
In APS5, the TPES is projected to increase at a slower rate of 3.9% per year, from 70.1 
Mtoe in 2015 to 183.7 Mtoe in 2040. Coal is projected to grow at the highest average 
annual rate of 5.2% compared with 6.6% in the BAU scenario. This is followed by oil (4.8%) 
and natural gas (3.6%), compared with 5.4% and 4.1% in the BAU scenario, respectively, 
over the same period. 
The slower growth in consumption, compared to the BAU scenario, stems from EEC 
measures on the demand side (APS1), and the more aggressive uptake of energy efficiency 
in thermal power plants (APS2) and renewables (APS3) on the supply side. Coal has 
the highest energy savings potential with 28.2%, followed by oil (13.9%) and natural gas 
(11.9%). Figure 17.8 shows the primary energy saving potential by fuel under the BAU 
scenario and APS.
Figure 17.7: Final Energy Consumption, BAU vs APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Mtoe
0.0%
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
–17.5%
–9.0%
–11.5%


327
Figure 17.8: Primary Energy Saving Potential by Fuel 
Type, BAU and APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
81.8%
–28.2%
–13.9%
–11.9%
The total savings amount to 36.3 Mtoe, equivalent to 16.5% of Viet Nam’s TPEC in 2040. 
(see Figure 17.9).
Figure 17.9: Evolution of Primary Energy Supply, 
BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Mtoe
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
36Mtoe,-16.5%
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.2.3. 
 CO2 reduction potential
CO2 emissions from energy consumption under the BAU scenario are projected to increase 
by 5.7% per year from 49.0 million metric tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 195.2 Mt-C in 
2040. Meanwhile, under APS5, the annual increase in CO2 emissions between 2015 and 
2040 is projected to be 4.6% yearly, which is 1.1 percentage points lower than the BAU 
scenario. 
Reduced CO2 emissions are mostly derived from EEC measures on the demand side 
(APS1). Moreover, improvement of energy efficiency in thermal power plants (APS2) and 
development of renewable energy technologies (APS3) also contributed significantly to 
CO2 reduction (Figure 17.10). 
Improvements on CO2 emissions under the APSs will be around 45.3 Mt-C lower, equal 
to 23.2% reduction in 2040. This indicates that the energy saving goals and action plans of 
Viet Nam are effective in reducing CO2 emissions (see Figure 17.11).
Figure 17.10: CO2 Emissions by Fuel Type, BAU and APSs
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-c = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculations.
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Mt-C
BAU
APS1
APS2
APS3
APS5
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas


329
Figure 17.11: Evolution of CO2 Emissions, 
BAU and APS (1990, 2015, and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mt-c = million tons of carbon.
Source: Author’s calculations.
Mt-C
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
BAU
2015
1990
2040
APS
45.3Mt-C,-23.2%
4. 
  Review of Viet Nam’s INDC and APS5 Results 
In September 2015, Viet Nam submitted its Intended Nationally Determined 
Contributions (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 
Viet Nam’s INDC includes mitigation and adaptation components and covers the entire 
economy, including the energy; agriculture; land use, land use change, and forestry; and 
waste sectors. The mitigation component includes both unconditional and conditional 
contributions. Unconditional contributions are measures implemented using domestic 
resources, while conditional contributions are those that could be implemented if new 
and additional international financial support, technology transfer, and capacity building 
are received.
With domestic resources, by 2030, Viet Nam will reduce GHG emissions by 8% compared 
to the BAU scenario, equal to around 63 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent 
(tCO2e). The contribution of the energy sector on GHG emissions reduction by 2030 
will be 29.5 million tCO2e, accounting for 46.8% of total GHG emissions reduction under 
unconditional contribution.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
The above-mentioned 8% contribution could be increased to 25%, with international 
support, equal to around 197 million tCO2e. The contribution of the energy sector on 
GHG emissions reduction by 2030 will be 65.9 million tCO2e, accounting for 33.5% of 
total GHG emissions reduction under conditional contribution. 
GHG mitigation goals in the energy sector are expected to be attained through the 
potential mitigation options in the industry, transport, and ‘others’ sectors on the demand 
side and the development of renewable energy technologies, particularly solar, wind, and 
biomass for power generation, on the supply side. 
These options were proposed and selected based on the following criteria: government 
prioritisation, GHG reduction potential, cost-effectiveness, and the maturity of technology 
development, which can be classified by unconditional and conditional contributions as 
follows: 
• 
Prioritised mitigation options: GHG reduction potential, alignment with government 
policies, cost-effectiveness, and maturity of technologies
• 
Unconditional: low abatement costs, already implemented in Viet Nam, aligned with 
sectoral plans for 2021–2030
• 
Conditional: higher abatement costs and new technologies currently implemented in 
developed countries.
To evaluate and compare GHG emissions reduction potential and targets with Viet Nam’s 
INDC, the author classified the mitigation technologies in APS5 and based on the above 
criteria to compare APS5 of this study with INDC on GHG emissions reduction.
Under APS5, with domestic resources, Viet Nam will reduce by 2030 33.7 million tCO2e 
(or 6.3% reduction) compared to 29.5 million tCO2e (or 5.5% reduction) in the INDC. 
These GHG emissions will further decrease to 76.9 million tCO2e (or 14.4% reduction) 
compared to 65.9 million tCO2e (or 12.3% reduction) in the INDC under conditional 
contribution with international support.


331
In both the INDC and APS5, the power generation and industry sectors have high 
potential in reducing GHG. Compared to Viet Nam’s INDC on GHG emissions reduction 
targets, those in APS5 look similar but seem to be more ambitious due to new policies and 
technologies being updated. These also prove that if APS5 were implemented, Viet Nam’s 
INDC would be achieved.  
5.   Key Findings and Policy Implications
The following are some key findings from the above analysis on energy savings potential:
• 
Energy demand in Viet Nam is expected to continue to grow significantly, driven 
by robust economic growth, industrialisation, urbanisation, and population growth. 
EEC measures can potentially contribute to meeting higher demand in a sustainable 
manner. 
• 
Viet Nam’s energy intensity, which is amongst the highest in the world, indicates high 
savings potential. 
• 
Electricity demand is increasing with highest annual growth rate of 5.3% in the BAU 
scenario and is projected to decline to 4.7% in the APS. This decline proves that the 
EEC measures are effective in electricity demand. 
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual Scenario, GHG = greenhouse gases,   
 
 
 
INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, Mt-CO2 = million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Source: Author’s calculations.
MtCO2e
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
BAU
Un-Con INDC
Con INDC
Un-Con APS5
Con APS5
Industry
Supply side
Transport
Others
29.5 Mt-CO2,–5.5%
65.9 Mt-CO2,–12.3%
33.7 Mt-CO2,–6.3%
76.9 Mt-CO2,–14.4%
Figure 17.12: GHG Reduction Targets, APS5 vs INDC
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
• 
EEC scenarios on the demand side are most effective compared with other proposed 
scenarios, which are APS2 and APS3. 
• 
Coal-fired thermal power plants will be the major power source in Viet Nam in 
the coming years. Their share in the total power generation output is increasing 
continuously from 31.9% in 2015 to 68.9% in 2040 in the BAU scenario. This is the 
area with the largest energy savings and GHG mitigation potential in both Viet Nam’s 
INDC and APS5.  
• 
GHG mitigation technologies in APS5 will be developed to conform with Viet Nam’s 
INDC and government policies.
The following policies are recommended to effectively implement EEC activities in Viet 
Nam:
• 
Establishment of new targets and a roadmap for EEC implementation: Energy 
demand in Viet Nam in the BAU scenario is expected to continue to grow significantly 
in the coming years. EEC scenarios on the demand side are most effective compared 
to other proposed scenarios (APS2 and APS3). Therefore, Viet Nam needs to 
strengthen EEC activities by updating and setting new targets globally and specifically 
in each sector for the next periods and by preparing specific road maps or action plans 
to achieve these targets.    
• 
Compulsory energy standards and labelling for electrical appliances: The annual 
growth of electricity demand, especially in the ‘others’ sector, is projected to be the 
second highest (5.3%) in the BAU scenario. Therefore, compulsory energy standards 
and labelling for electrical appliances is an effective management measure in energy 
savings.  
• 
Priority for development of advanced coal-fired thermal power technology: 
Coal-fired thermal power plants will be the major source of power generation in Viet 
Nam up to 2040. Therefore, Viet Nam needs to retrofit the existing thermal power 
plants to improve the efficiency of power generation and to prioritise energy-effective 
technologies (clean coal technologies) for the development of new coal-fired thermal 
power plants. 
• 
Priority for renewable energy development: Coal-fired power generation is 
projected to have a dominant share in the future, which will result in the country’s 
reliance on coal imports for power generation. The development of renewable energy 
technologies to replace coal for power generation is an important factor for energy 
independence, energy security, and GHG abatement. This is necessary in setting up 
policy support and mechanisms to promote renewable energy development.


333
References
Government of Viet Nam (2006), Decision 79/2006/QD-TTg dated 14 April 2006 
of the Prime Minister Approving the National Target Program on Energy Savings and 
Conservation. Ha Noi.
Government of Viet Nam (2007), Decision 177/2007/QD-TTg dated 20 November 
2007 of the Prime Minister Approving the Master Plan on Biofuel Development Until 
2015 with Perspective of 2025. Ha Noi.
Government of Viet Nam (2015), Decision No. 2068/QD-TTg dated 2 November 2015 
of the Prime Minister Approving ‘The Vietnam Renewable Energy Development Strategy 
to 2030, Outlook Up to 2050. Ha Noi.
General Statistics Office, Government of Viet Nam (2011), Viet Nam Population 
Forecasts 2009–2049. Ha Noi. 
General Statistics Office, Government of Viet Nam (2015), Statistical Yearbook of Viet 
Nam. Ha Noi. 
Institute of Energy, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Government of Viet Nam (2015), 
Revised Power Development Plan for the Period of 2011–2020 with Perspective to 2030. 
Ha Noi. 
Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (2015), Technical Report. Viet Nam's 
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, Ha Noi: Ministry of Natural Resource and 
Environment.
The National Assembly of Viet Nam (2010), Law on Energy Savings and Conservation 
(2010). Ha Noi: The National Assembly of Viet Nam.
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
UNITED STATES COUNTRY 
REPORT
1.   Introduction
The United States (US) is the fourth-largest country in the world by total area and the 
third largest by population. Since 1990, its population has grown at an average annual 
rate of 2.4%, reaching approximately 321 million in 2015.1 As of 2018, 82.3% of its total 
population lives in urban areas, with the trend towards increased urbanisation expected 
to continue at an average annual rate of change of 0.95% throughout the current 2015–
2020 period (CIA, 2018). 
The US is also the world’s second-largest economy, with a gross domestic product (GDP) 
of $16.9 trillion and per capita income of $51,640 in 2015 (both in constant 2010 US$ 
values). By sector of origin, 80.2% of its GDP can be linked to services, while 18.9% is 
linked to industrial output, including motor vehicles, aerospace, chemicals, and consumer 
goods. Agriculture, including wheat, corn, beef, dairy, and forest products, makes up the 
remaining 0.9% (CIA, 2018). International trade also plays a crucial role in the overall 
strength and health of the US economy. As one measure of this, studies have suggested 
that in numerous areas of the country, more than one-quarter of state-level GDP can 
be attributed to international trade, including in Washington, Michigan, Louisiana, Texas, 
and New Jersey (Perry, 2018). 
CHAPTER 18
Clara Gillispie, The National Bureau of Asia Research 
Seiya Endo, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
1 
Unless otherwise cited, all data in this report can be attributed to economic modelling results for the United States of 
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, which are included in full as an annex to this publication. 


335
1.1.  Energy Situation
The US is the world’s second-largest consumer of energy and the second-largest emitter 
of CO2, though by per capita measures, it ranks first in both categories. In 1990, its final 
energy consumption was 1,294 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe). Over the following 
decade, consumption increased to 1,546 Mtoe in 2000, and then experienced a modest 
overall decline in 2000 to 2015 so that consumption was 1,520 Mtoe as of the end of 
2015. Different studies have contested whether this indicates that US consumption has 
peaked, or if a gradual recovery in economic activity following the 2007–2008 global 
economic crisis may have ultimately reversed this trend. Periodically cited as evidence is 
that between 1990 and 2015, only industry sector consumption declined overall (though 
non-energy sector consumption has also declined in the period since 2000). Meanwhile, 
energy consumption in the ‘others’ (residential/commercial/public) sector and transport 
grew steadily. 
During this period, coal consumption also declined sharply from 56 Mtoe to 20 Mtoe, but 
growth in consumption of natural gas and renewables more than offset this decline. A key 
contributor to this is the major shift under way in the US’s domestic energy supply outlook. 
While the country has long had abundant, diverse resource potential – including substantial 
natural endowments in fossil fuels such as coal, shale oil, and natural gas; geothermal 
and hydroelectric potential; and favourable conditions for wind and solar energy – up 
until recently, significant portions of this potential were not considered technically or 
economically viable. However, since the 2000s, breakthroughs in technology, declining 
production costs, and favourable environments for development and investment have 
contributed to a growing abundance in accessible domestic resource potential. Between 
2008 and 2013, the incremental increase alone of US daily oil production was equivalent 
to the total daily oil production of Iraq in 2010 (Richardson-Barlow et al., 2014). The 
International Energy Agency estimates that the US will be the world’s largest oil producer 
by 2023. Natural gas production also increased twelvefold during a similar period, resulting 
in the US becoming a top producer of natural gas (Richardson-Barlow et al., 2014). 
As has been well documented, such developments are now having a crucial, transformative 
impact on reshaping US energy outlooks. Rises in production levels of oil and natural gas 
are contributing to reducing or backing out of import requirements from Canada and other 
country sources. Combined with other market and policy factors, energy independence 
is also contributing to accelerating trends in transforming the US power generation mix. 
In 2014, for the first time ever, natural gas surpassed coal as the single largest share of 
US power generation. Meanwhile, increasingly favourable economics, coupled with 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
supportive domestic policy environments, also contributed to significant increases in 
consumption levels for wind and solar, which grew at the largest rates of increase of any 
fuel source in between 1990 and 2015. In some states of the US, including Texas and 
Iowa, wind energy is considered cost competitive with traditional fuel sources, which may 
further incentivise further consumption (Gillespie, Johnson, and Schwartz, 2017). 
Expanded production and reduced requirements for domestic consumption (particularly 
of abundant, high-quality indigenous coal resources) have also opened the door for the 
US to play an increasingly important role as a key exporter to the Asia-Pacific region. To 
date, US liquefied natural gas exports have been delivered to several major economies in 
Asia, including Japan, Taiwan, India, the Republic of  Korea, and China, and frequency 
and volumes are anticipated to grow exponentially in the coming decades (EIA, 2018a). 
The US is also becoming an increasingly important supplier of crude oil to Asia. It is 
also an important global exporter of coal, with India, the Republic of  Korea, and Japan 
representing three of the top five recipients of US steam coal exports in 2017 (EIA, 2018b). 
Going forward, while each of these fuel sources may potentially contribute immensely to 
strengthening regional energy security outlooks, factors such as overall competitiveness 
of US supplies, social licence considerations in both the US and Asian countries, and the 
need to overcome current bottlenecks in US transport infrastructure may limit the overall 
potential of US export growth. 
2.   Modelling Assumptions 
Over this study’s outlook period of 2015–2040, both overall GDP and population counts 
are projected to grow, though at markedly different rates – resulting in a trend of an overall 
rising per capita GDP (Figures 18.1 and 18.2). While US birth rates are projected to remain 
below replacement levels during the outlook window, its population continues to grow 
overall due to sustained immigration and improvements in life expectancies. However, at 
0.6% per year, population growth rate for the outlook period is still at a notably slower pace 
than the 1% of the previous 25-year period (CIA, 2018).


337
United States Country Report
Figure 18.1: GDP and Population (1990–2040)
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Authors’ assumptions.
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
5,000
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Population
GDP
billlion 2010 US$
million person
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
thousand 2010 US$/person
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
36
45
52
55
64
74
Figure 18.2: Per Capita GDP (1990–2040)
GDP = gross domestic product.
Source: Calculation based on authors’ assumptions.
Between 1990 and 2015, US GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.4%. Despite 
significant disruption in this overarching trend during the 2007–2008 global economic 
crisis, the US economic outlook appears to have now recovered dramatically by several 
measures. However, ongoing questions about job creation rates and challenges in 
increasing productivity remain looming challenges to realising new gains in GDP growth. 
This model projects that GDP growth rates will re-stabilise over the outlook period at 
rates comparable, though modestly lower, than the prior 25 years. Between 2015 and 
2040, average annual growth will continue at 2.1% per year, and each decade snapshot 
will relatively closely mirror this overall trend (with the 2030–2040 period being the 
sole outlier at the slightly slower pace of 2%). This estimate aligns with expectations of 
continued efficiency and productivity gains alongside the above modest but sustained 


338
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
population growth, as well as continued US leadership and commitment to innovation in 
emerging fields. 
In terms of overall total final energy consumption (TFEC), oil is anticipated to retain its 
dominance through the outlook period, reflecting that by sector, transport also remains 
the single largest driver of the TFEC. In electricity generation, while coal, nuclear energy, 
and hydropower are each anticipated to remain critical components of the overall US mix, 
each of these sources is anticipated to decline in terms of their overall share between 
2015 and 2040. This is primarily due to unfavourable economics and domestic policy and 
social licence factors when compared with the outlooks for non-hydro renewables and 
natural gas. Investments in cleaner consumption technologies as well as the retirement of 
ageing coal-fired power fleets are also anticipated to boost overall efficiency of generation. 
However, uncertainties about the pace and scale of retirement of existing nuclear power 
plants weigh on the overall trajectory for reducing CO2 emissions. 
The Alternative Policy Scenarios (APSs) assume progress towards the full implementation 
and realisation of a range of established efforts to strengthen a country’s energy-saving 
potential. For the US, these include efforts to strengthen efficiency of final energy demand, 
improve efficient thermal power generation, sustain a robust role for nuclear energy as a 
source of baseload power generation, and realise a higher contribution from renewable 
energy in total supply. Calculations are modelled based on a review and assessment of 
current laws and policies in place at the national and state levels. This study then reviews 
the results of the APSs to determine cumulative impact in promoting CO2 emissions 
reductions and encouraging energy savings beyond business-as-usual. 
3.   Outlook Results
3.1.  Business-As-Usual Scenario 
3.1.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the TFEC is anticipated to decline slightly 
between 2015 and 2040, though at 1,515 Mtoe, it remains well above 1990 levels (Figure 
18.3). The transport sector is the only sector whose consumption is anticipated to decline, 
with efficiency improvements and other structural changes within the sector offsetting 
prospects for additional consumption despite continued growth in vehicle ownership. 
Meanwhile, consumption by industry, non-energy, and ‘others’ (residential/commercial) 
sector grows. The largest growth is experienced in the ‘others’ sector, though non-energy 
sector consumption grows at the fastest rate. 


339
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
-
Mtoe
284
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
332
262
629
506
123
1,520
259
613
516
127
1,515
264
584
537
137
1,522
265
559
549
142
1,5,15
588
473
153
1,546
488
403
119
1,294
Non-energy
Others
Transport
Industry
Figure 18.3: Final Energy Consumption by Sector, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
During this same period, electricity consumption is anticipated to grow from 325 Mtoe to 
376 Mtoe. Non-hydropower renewables, primarily wind and solar but also geothermal, 
will experience the most dramatic growth during this period. Natural gas consumption 
remains relatively stable up to 2030 but is anticipated to modestly decline through the 
end of the outlook period. Coal consumption declines throughout the entire 2015–2040 
period, although at a much slower pace than in the previous 25 years. Oil consumption 
experiences the most dramatic decline, given robust expectations for continued efficiency 
gains as well as switching in the transport sector to natural gas, biofuels, and other sources 
as well as increased deployment of electric vehicles (Figure 18.4).
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
3.1.2. Primary energy consumption
Under the BAU scenario, total primary energy consumption is anticipated to decline from 
2,188.3 Mtoe in 2015 to 2,143 Mtoe in 2040, with an average annual rate of decline of 
0.1%. Of note, much of this overall decline is also anticipated to already have occurred 
by 2020. Coal consumption is anticipated to decline at a rate of 1.0% during this period, 
while nuclear declines by 0.5%. In contrast, non-hydropower renewables experience the 
largest growth in consumption during this period at 5.3%, closely followed by geothermal 
at 4.4% (Figure 18.5).
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
-150
-100
-50
50
100
150
0
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Electricity
Heat
Others
Mtoe
2015–2040
1990–2015
Figure 18.4: Changes in Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU


341
Figure 18.5: Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
-
Mtoe
1990
460
757
438
159
63
1,915
2000
534
871
548
208
78
2,273
2015
374
794
646
216
127
2,188
2020
335
766
664
210
152
2,165
2030
311
719
702
209
180
2,167
2040
289
677
725
191
209
2,143
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
3.1.3. 
 Power generation
Figure 18.6: Power Generation under BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual, TWh = terawatt-hour.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
-
1990
3,203
1,700
382
612
2000
2,129
634
798
2015
1,471
1,373
830
2020
1,316
1,512
806
2030
1,303
1,672
801
2040
1,279
1,854
732
273
253
4,026
251
315
4,297
291
495
4,462
295
705
4,831
298
943
5,174
TWh
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Electricity generation in the US, under the BAU scenario, is projected to increase over 
the outlook period, though at a comparatively slower pace than in the previous 25 years. 
Generation output increases from 4,297.0 terawatt hours (TWh) to 5,173.8 TWh 
between 2015 and 2040, for an average annual growth rate of 0.7%. 
After surpassing coal as the single largest share of the US’s power generation mix in 
2014, natural gas retains its number one rank through 2040, representing 35.8% of the 
overall mix. The largest average annual growth rates are seen in non-hydro renewables, 
most prominently solar and wind, as well as potentially geothermal. Improved economics 
alongside other considerations could also contribute to incentivising higher levels 
of consumption of wind and solar though, as aptly noted by the Energy Information 
Administration, many existing tax credits will begin to expire in the early 2020s, potentially 
raising questions for the road ahead (Figure 18.6). 
The retirement of older, less-efficient coal-fired plants and ongoing technological 
improvements promoting more efficient consumption are assumed to play important roles 
in shaping this outlook alongside broader market and policy forces that may incentivise 
switching. Coal continues its decline at 0.6% a year, though it is still anticipated to account 
for roughly one-quarter of all US power generation in 2040. Uncertainties in investments 
and progress towards strengthening existing, ageing grid infrastructure may also challenge 
efforts to bring new generation online in ways that promote energy savings and CO2 
reductions (Figure 18.7). 
Figure 18.7: Share of Power Generation Mix under BAU (1990–2040)
BAU = Business-As-Usual.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990
53%
53%
6%
4%
9%
2000
2015
34%
32%
6%
7%
2020
29%
34%
7%
11%
2030
27%
35%
6%
15%
2040
25%
36%
6%
18%
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Others


343
3.2  Energy Savings in the APS and CO2 Reduction Potential 
3.2.1. 
 Final energy consumption
Under the APS, this study projects that early signs of declining TFEC in the US will be 
affirmed and that the overall rate of decline will also be accelerated. Under the APS, this 
study anticipates that in 2015–2040, consumption will decline from 1,520 Mtoe to 1,379 
Mtoe. When compared with the BAU scenario, this shows an energy savings of 135.8 Mtoe 
or 9% during the period. Transportation realises a savings of 57.6 Mtoe (10.3%); industry, 
21.8 Mtoe (8.2%); and residential and commercial, 56.4 Mtoe (10.3%). Meanwhile, in 
contrast to expectations under the BAU scenario, all sectors save for non-energy now 
realise some level of declining overall consumption (Figure 18.8).
Figure 18.8: Final Energy Consumption by Sector in BAU vs. APS
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Industry
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Transport
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Non-energy
APS
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
Under the APS, US primary energy consumption is anticipated to decrease from 2,188.3 
Mtoe in 2015 from 1,910.2 Mtoe in 2050. This implies that, in 2040, under the APS, 
savings of primary energy consumption will be around 232.73 Mtoe or 10.9% lower 
compared with the BAU scenario (Figure 18.9).
Coal in the primary energy demand in the APS is expected to decline to 129.7 Mtoe. This 
represents a total energy saving of 159.6 Mtoe in 2040 compared with the BAU scenario. 
Oil consumption is also anticipated to decline compared to the BAU scenario, with a 
potential saving of 109.3 Mtoe (or 16.1%) by 2040, while natural gas is also anticipated to 
see a similar level of decline. In contrast, the demand for others (renewables) is anticipated 
to increase to about 270.35 Mtoe (40.9%) compared to the BAU scenario in 2040 (Figure 
18.10).
3.2.2. 
 Primary energy supply 
Figure 18.9: Total Primary Energy Supply in BAU vs APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
1750.0
1800.0
1900.0
2000.0
2050.0
2100.0
2150.0
2200.0
2250.0
1850.0
1950.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
APS


345
Figure 18.10: Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel in BAU vs APS (2015 and 2040)
APS = Alternative Policy Scenario, BAU = Business-As-Usual, Mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent.
Source: Authors’ calculation.
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1000.0
Mtoe
BAU
2015
2040
Coal
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Oil
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Gas
APS
BAU
2015
2040
Others
APS
+40.9%
–55.2%
–16.1%
–13.5%
3.3.  CO2 Emissions 
CO2 emissions from energy consumption, under the BAU scenario, are anticipated to 
decline modestly – from 1,382.9 million tons of carbon (Mt-C) in 2015 to 1,228.9 Mt-C 
in 2040. This is equivalent to a decrease in average annual rate of 0.5%. Key drivers of 
this shift is due to continued fuel switching in the electricity mix of the US. Decreased 
consumption of coal and oil and increased consumption of natural gas and non-fossil 
sources contribute to modest improvements in the country’s overall emissions profile.
In the APS, CO2 emissions are projected to decrease at an average annual rate of 1.7%, 
from 1,382.9 Mt-C in 2015 to 902.2 Mt-C in 2040. Emissions savings in the APS are thus 
26.6% compared to the BAU scenario in 2040. The most dramatic shifts in primary energy 
consumption between the BAU scenario and the APS are linked to the acceleration of 
trends in reducing coal – a difference of 55.2% by 2040 – while oil consumption is reduced 
by an additional 16.1% and gas by an additional 13.5% (Figure 18.11). 
In the official submission of its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), the 
US pledged to reduce CO2 emissions from their 2005 levels by 26%–28% by 2025. While 
the current US (Trump) administration has raised the prospects of revising or abandoning 
its current INDC pledge, this study suggests that the US has already made substantial 
progress towards this goal. However, even under the APS, more robust actions may be 
necessary to achieve this target by 2025. 
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ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
4. 
  Policy Implications 
Based on the results and discussions presented above, the following policy implications 
could be derived:
• 
Coal, oil, and natural gas will continue to dominate the US energy mix in both the 
BAU scenario and the APS. 
• 
Natural gas will remain as the single greatest share of the US electricity generation mix 
in 2015–2040, although non-hydro renewables such as wind and solar are anticipated 
to experience the largest growth rates. 
• 
Improved economics alongside sustained breakthroughs in renewable energy 
technologies could also contribute to incentivising higher levels of consumption in 
ways that further accelerate CO2 emissions and promote energy savings. However, 
as the Energy Information Administration  notes, substantial uncertainties lie ahead, 
including determining the implications and desirable responses to expiring tax credits 
and fiscal incentives for renewable energy in the 2020s. 
• 
Continued efforts to strengthen the transport sector are being envisioned as a critical 
opportunity to save energy under both the BAU scenario and the APS. In addition to 
accelerated deployment of electric vehicles, greater attention to fuel efficiency and 
technologies for overall cleaner consumption will be critical, given expectations of a 
continued prominent role for oil. 
Figure 18.11: CO2 Emissions Trends under APS (1990–2040)
Source: Authors’ calculation.
1990=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990
2000
2015
2020
2030
2040
Energy Intensity
Energy per Capita
CO2 per Energy
CO2 Intensity
CO2 per Capita


347
• 
Growing potential for US energy exports to Asia could contribute immensely to 
strengthening regional energy security outlooks. However, factors such as overall 
competitiveness, social licence considerations on both sides of the Pacific, and the 
need to overcome current bottlenecks in US transport infrastructure may limit overall 
US export growth potential. 
References
Gillispie, C., A. Johnson, and L. Schwartz (2017), Sustainable Futures: Energy and 
Environmental Security in Times of Transition, National Bureau of Asian Research, 
http://nbr.org/downloads/pdfs/eta/PES_2016_report.pdf (accessed 15 June 2018). 
Perry, M.J. (2018), ‘How Important is International Trade to each US State’s Economy? 
Pretty Important for most US States,’ Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, 
http://www.aei.org/publication/how-important-is-international-trade-to-each-us-
states-economy-pretty-important-for-most-us-states/ (accessed 15 June 2018). 
Richardson-Barlow, C., H. Kincaide, and L. Schwartz with V.A.V. Murthy (2014), New 
Frontiers in Trans-Pacific Energy Trade, National Bureau of Asian Research, Seattle, 
http://nbr.org/downloads/pdfs/ETA/PEF_2014_report.pdf (accessed 15 June 2018).
US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) (2018), The World Factbook – United States, 
Washington, DC: US CIA, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-
factbook/geos/us.html (accessed 15 June 2018). 
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2018a), ‘U.S. Natural Gas Exports and Re-
Exports by Country,’ Washington, DC: EIA, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_
expc_s1_a.htm (accessed 15 June 2018).
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2018b), ‘U.S. Coal Exports Increased by 
61% in 2017 as Exports to Asia More than Doubled,’ Washington, DC: EIA, https://www.
eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35852 (accessed 15 June 2018).
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349
Results Summary Tables
RESULTS 
SUMMARY 
TABLES
ANNEX


350
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
16,861
23,941
39,023
46,476
55,279
65,967
78,166
91,534
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.5
Population (millions of people)
2,881
3,313
3,839
3,987
4,114
4,218
4,298
4,357
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.3
0.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 5.85 
 7.23 
 10.17 
 11.66 
 13.4 
 15.6 
 18.2 
 21.0 
2.2
2.8
3.0
3.0
2.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 1.37 
 1.52 
 1.95 
 2.07 
 2.17 
 2.27 
 2.39 
 2.51 
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 235 
 211 
 192 
 177 
 162 
 145 
 131 
 120 
-0.8
-1.5
-2.0
-1.9
-1.9
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 165 
 144 
 129 
 120 
 109 
 98 
 89 
 81 
-1.0
-1.4
-2.0
-1.9
-1.8
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 164 
 148 
 145 
 132 
 119 
 108 
 98 
 89 
-0.5
-1.9
-2.0
-1.8
-1.9
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.70 
 0.70 
 0.76 
 0.74 
 0.74 
 0.74 
 0.74 
 0.75 
0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3,955
5,049
7,488
8,249
8,928
9,595
10,255
10,943
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
2.0
1.5
1.3
1.5
Coal
1,230
1,558
3,103
3,297
3,511
3,754
4,002
4,254
31.1
30.9
41.4
40.0
39.3
39.1
39.0
38.9
3.8
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
Oil
1,361
1,751
2,082
2,320
2,488
2,652
2,801
2,981
34.4
34.7
27.8
28.1
27.9
27.6
27.3
27.2
1.7
2.2
1.3
1.2
1.4
Natural gas
557
772
1,155
1,296
1,444
1,607
1,785
1,972
14.1
15.3
15.4
15.7
16.2
16.8
17.4
18.0
3.0
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.2
Nuclear
227
329
316
404
473
520
526
543
5.8
6.5
4.2
4.9
5.3
5.4
5.1
5.0
1.3
5.0
2.5
0.4
2.2
Hydro
54
63
151
172
183
193
202
209
1.4
1.2
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
4.2
2.6
1.1
0.8
1.3
Geothermal
24
38
48
50
66
72
94
103
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.9
2.9
0.6
3.7
3.7
3.1
Others
501
537
632
710
762
798
845
881
12.7
10.6
8.4
8.6
8.5
8.3
8.2
8.1
0.9
2.4
1.2
1.0
1.3
Biomass
497
523
498
511
504
489
477
464
12.6
10.4
6.7
6.2
5.6
5.1
4.6
4.2
0.0
0.5
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
2
4
75
130
176
224
269
314
0.0
0.1
1.0
1.6
2.0
2.3
2.6
2.9
15.9
11.6
5.5
3.4
5.9
Biofuels
1
7
54
66
76
80
91
96
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
18.2
4.1
1.9
1.9
2.4
Electricity
0
2
5
4
5
6
9
7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
10.1
-4.8
5.3
0.5
1.3
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5,436
7,948
14,290
16,499
18,573
20,752
22,912
25,030
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.9
2.9
2.3
1.9
2.3
Coal
2,618
4,180
7,681
8,379
9,159
10,094
11,095
12,024
48.2
52.6
53.8
50.8
49.3
48.6
48.4
48.0
4.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.8
Oil
566
482
223
171
152
130
108
94
10.4
6.1
1.6
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
-3.7
-5.2
-2.7
-3.2
-3.4
Natural gas
621
1,157
2,546
2,916
3,296
3,748
4,289
4,846
11.4
14.6
17.8
17.7
17.7
18.1
18.7
19.4
5.8
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.6
Nuclear
873
1,262
1,213
1,550
1,816
1,994
2,019
2,084
16.1
15.9
8.5
9.4
9.8
9.6
8.8
8.3
1.3
5.0
2.5
0.4
2.2
Hydro
630
731
1,761
2,004
2,133
2,240
2,344
2,425
11.6
9.2
12.3
12.1
11.5
10.8
10.2
9.7
4.2
2.6
1.1
0.8
1.3
Geothermal
27
37
50
61
82
91
110
120
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
2.6
3.8
4.1
2.8
3.5
Others
101
98
815
1,418
1,935
2,455
2,948
3,436
1.9
1.2
5.7
8.6
10.4
11.8
12.9
13.7
8.7
11.7
5.6
3.4
5.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
910
1,377
2,274
2,440
2,643
2,884
3,150
3,412
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.7
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.6
Coal
643
1,024
1,764
1,890
2,038
2,216
2,403
2,577
70.7
74.3
77.6
77.5
77.1
76.8
76.3
75.5
4.1
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.5
Oil
126
112
53
41
36
30
24
21
13.8
8.1
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.1
0.8
0.6
-3.4
-5.2
-2.8
-3.5
-3.5
Natural gas
141
241
457
510
569
637
722
813
15.5
17.5
20.1
20.9
21.5
22.1
22.9
23.8
4.8
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2,762
3,534
5,660
6,132
6,604
7,108
7,621
8,189
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.5
Coal
1,349
1,719
3,369
3,577
3,824
4,096
4,378
4,673
48.8
48.6
59.5
58.3
57.9
57.6
57.4
57.1
3.7
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.3
Oil
1,033
1,306
1,514
1,645
1,751
1,866
1,987
2,140
37.4
36.9
26.7
26.8
26.5
26.2
26.1
26.1
1.5
1.7
1.3
1.4
1.4
Natural gas
380
509
776
910
1,029
1,147
1,257
1,377
13.8
14.4
13.7
14.8
15.6
16.1
16.5
16.8
2.9
3.2
2.3
1.8
2.3
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
36.0
36.3
39.5
40.4
41.0
41.7
42.3
42.8
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
Coal
35.0
35.1
37.5
38.1
38.7
39.2
39.7
40.1
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
Oil
38.7
37.0
36.3
36.3
36.1
36.8
38.0
37.7
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
Natural gas
37.9
41.2
47.9
49.2
49.8
50.6
51.0
51.3
0.9
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2,785
3,453
5,020
5,565
6,025
6,479
6,926
7,410
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
2.1
1.5
1.4
1.6
Industry
779
957
1,717
1,865
2,011
2,165
2,333
2,529
28.0
27.7
34.2
33.5
33.4
33.4
33.7
34.1
3.2
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.6
Transportation
681
910
1,275
1,466
1,596
1,712
1,817
1,936
24.5
26.4
25.4
26.3
26.5
26.4
26.2
26.1
2.5
2.8
1.6
1.2
1.7
Others
1,093
1,253
1,557
1,697
1,825
1,950
2,068
2,177
39.3
36.3
31.0
30.5
30.3
30.1
29.9
29.4
1.4
1.7
1.4
1.1
1.3
Non-energy
231
333
471
538
593
652
708
768
8.3
9.7
9.4
9.7
9.8
10.1
10.2
10.4
2.9
2.7
1.9
1.7
2.0
Total
2,785
3,453
5,020
5,565
6,025
6,479
6,926
7,410
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
2.1
1.5
1.4
1.6
Coal
456
393
908
963
1,024
1,083
1,141
1,218
16.4
11.4
18.1
17.3
17.0
16.7
16.5
16.4
2.8
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
Oil
1,132
1,506
1,894
2,128
2,295
2,458
2,605
2,779
40.7
43.6
37.7
38.2
38.1
37.9
37.6
37.5
2.1
2.4
1.5
1.2
1.5
Natural gas
351
446
581
658
733
814
893
976
12.6
12.9
11.6
11.8
12.2
12.6
12.9
13.2
2.0
2.5
2.1
1.8
2.1
Electricity
383
574
1,047
1,206
1,359
1,524
1,693
1,858
13.8
16.6
20.8
21.7
22.6
23.5
24.4
25.1
4.1
2.9
2.4
2.0
2.3
Heat
16
35
94
101
107
113
118
122
0.6
1.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
7.4
1.6
1.1
0.7
1.1
Others
446
499
497
509
505
487
475
458
16.0
14.5
9.9
9.2
8.4
7.5
6.9
6.2
0.4
0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.3
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
EAS17 (BAU)


351
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
16,861
23,941
39,023
46,477
55,281
65,971
78,168
91,534
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.5
Population (millions of people)
2,881
3,313
3,839
3,990
4,117
4,222
4,303
4,360
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.3
0.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 5.85 
 7.23 
 10.17 
 11.65 
 13.4 
 15.6 
 18.2 
 21.0 
2.2
2.8
3.0
3.0
2.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 1.37 
 1.52 
 1.95 
 2.02 
 2.06 
 2.10 
 2.13 
 2.18 
1.4
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.4
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 235 
 211 
 192 
 174 
 154 
 134 
 117 
 104 
-0.8
-2.0
-2.5
-2.5
-2.4
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 165 
 144 
 129 
 117 
 104 
 92 
 81 
 72 
-1.0
-1.8
-2.4
-2.4
-2.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 164 
 148 
 145 
 127 
 108 
 92 
 78 
 68 
-0.5
-2.7
-3.1
-3.0
-3.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.70 
 0.70 
 0.76 
 0.73 
 0.70 
 0.69 
 0.67 
 0.65 
0.3
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3,955
5,049
7,487
8,072
8,486
8,857
9,182
9,512
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
1.5
0.9
0.7
1.0
Coal
1,230
1,558
3,103
3,149
3,138
3,144
3,115
3,100
31.1
30.9
41.4
39.0
37.0
35.5
33.9
32.6
3.8
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.0
Oil
1,361
1,751
2,082
2,285
2,372
2,439
2,492
2,573
34.4
34.7
27.8
28.3
27.9
27.5
27.1
27.0
1.7
1.9
0.7
0.5
0.9
Natural gas
557
772
1,155
1,252
1,343
1,441
1,531
1,620
14.1
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.8
16.3
16.7
17.0
3.0
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.4
Nuclear
227
329
316
416
522
603
677
752
5.8
6.5
4.2
5.2
6.2
6.8
7.4
7.9
1.3
5.6
3.8
2.2
3.5
Hydro
54
63
151
175
188
201
212
222
1.4
1.2
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
4.2
2.9
1.4
1.0
1.5
Geothermal
24
38
48
72
109
144
165
166
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
1.8
1.7
2.9
8.3
7.2
1.5
5.1
Others
501
537
632
724
814
886
990
1,078
12.7
10.6
8.4
9.0
9.6
10.0
10.8
11.3
0.9
2.8
2.0
2.0
2.2
Biomass
497
523
498
514
509
495
497
486
12.6
10.4
6.7
6.4
6.0
5.6
5.4
5.1
0.0
0.6
-0.4
-0.2
-0.1
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
2
4
75
139
212
282
364
445
0.0
0.1
1.0
1.7
2.5
3.2
4.0
4.7
15.9
13.0
7.3
4.7
7.4
Biofuels
1
7
54
68
89
104
123
142
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.8
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.5
18.2
4.8
4.3
3.2
4.0
Electricity
0
2
5
4
5
6
7
5
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
10.1
-5.1
3.9
-0.6
0.2
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5,436
7,948
14,289
16,176
17,811
19,498
21,144
22,709
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.9
2.5
1.9
1.5
1.9
Coal
2,618
4,180
7,681
7,915
7,947
8,086
8,111
8,126
48.2
52.6
53.8
48.9
44.6
41.5
38.4
35.8
4.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.2
Oil
566
482
223
196
163
134
103
89
10.4
6.1
1.6
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.4
-3.7
-2.6
-3.7
-4.0
-3.6
Natural gas
621
1,157
2,546
2,790
3,013
3,293
3,561
3,802
11.4
14.6
17.8
17.2
16.9
16.9
16.8
16.7
5.8
1.8
1.7
1.4
1.6
Nuclear
873
1,262
1,213
1,596
2,003
2,314
2,598
2,885
16.1
15.9
8.5
9.9
11.2
11.9
12.3
12.7
1.3
5.6
3.8
2.2
3.5
Hydro
630
731
1,761
2,034
2,181
2,332
2,468
2,586
11.6
9.2
12.3
12.6
12.2
12.0
11.7
11.4
4.2
2.9
1.4
1.0
1.5
Geothermal
27
37
50
75
121
154
175
185
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
2.6
8.3
7.5
1.8
5.3
Others
101
98
815
1,569
2,384
3,183
4,128
5,036
1.9
1.2
5.7
9.7
13.4
16.3
19.5
22.2
8.7
14.0
7.3
4.7
7.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
910
1,377
2,274
2,300
2,278
2,285
2,269
2,260
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.7
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
Coal
643
1,024
1,764
1,771
1,731
1,714
1,675
1,640
70.7
74.3
77.6
77.0
76.0
75.0
73.8
72.6
4.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
Oil
126
112
53
47
39
32
24
21
13.8
8.1
2.3
2.1
1.7
1.4
1.0
0.9
-3.4
-2.1
-3.9
-4.2
-3.7
Natural gas
141
241
457
481
508
540
570
599
15.5
17.5
20.1
20.9
22.3
23.6
25.1
26.5
4.8
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2,762
3,534
5,660
5,884
5,963
6,067
6,118
6,207
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.4
Coal
1,349
1,719
3,369
3,406
3,388
3,401
3,379
3,365
48.8
48.6
59.5
57.9
56.8
56.1
55.2
54.2
3.7
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
Oil
1,033
1,306
1,514
1,615
1,644
1,672
1,695
1,748
37.4
36.9
26.8
27.5
27.6
27.6
27.7
28.2
1.5
1.3
0.3
0.4
0.6
Natural gas
380
509
776
863
931
995
1,044
1,094
13.8
14.4
13.7
14.7
15.6
16.4
17.1
17.6
2.9
2.1
1.4
1.0
1.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
36.0
36.3
39.5
40.8
42.0
43.3
44.6
45.7
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
Coal
35.0
35.1
37.5
38.4
39.5
40.6
41.6
42.6
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Oil
38.7
37.0
36.3
35.5
35.8
36.4
37.5
37.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Natural gas
37.9
41.2
47.9
49.9
51.0
52.5
53.7
54.6
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2,785
3,453
5,020
5,457
5,775
6,058
6,324
6,615
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
1.7
1.1
0.9
1.1
Industry
779
957
1,717
1,821
1,922
2,024
2,127
2,240
28.0
27.7
34.2
33.4
33.3
33.4
33.6
33.9
3.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.1
Transportation
681
910
1,275
1,427
1,504
1,552
1,594
1,653
24.5
26.4
25.4
26.2
26.0
25.6
25.2
25.0
2.5
2.3
0.8
0.6
1.0
Others
1,093
1,253
1,557
1,670
1,756
1,830
1,896
1,954
39.3
36.3
31.0
30.6
30.4
30.2
30.0
29.5
1.4
1.4
0.9
0.7
0.9
Non-energy
231
333
471
538
593
652
708
768
8.3
9.7
9.4
9.9
10.3
10.8
11.2
11.6
2.9
2.7
1.9
1.7
2.0
Total
2,785
3,453
5,020
5,457
5,775
6,058
6,324
6,615
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
1.7
1.1
0.9
1.1
Coal
456
393
908
947
991
1,029
1,060
1,102
16.4
11.4
18.1
17.3
17.2
17.0
16.8
16.7
2.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
Oil
1,132
1,506
1,894
2,087
2,180
2,252
2,311
2,391
40.7
43.6
37.7
38.2
37.8
37.2
36.5
36.1
2.1
2.0
0.8
0.6
0.9
Natural gas
351
446
581
645
703
761
816
871
12.6
12.9
11.6
11.8
12.2
12.6
12.9
13.2
2.0
2.1
1.7
1.4
1.6
Electricity
383
574
1,047
1,182
1,304
1,433
1,563
1,688
13.8
16.6
20.8
21.7
22.6
23.7
24.7
25.5
4.1
2.5
1.9
1.7
1.9
Heat
16
35
94
99
102
106
108
108
0.6
1.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
7.4
1.1
0.7
0.2
0.6
Others
446
499
497
497
495
478
466
455
16.0
14.5
9.9
9.1
8.6
7.9
7.4
6.9
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
EAS17 (APS)


352
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
636
881
1,355
1,561
1,782
2,016
2,260
2,510
3.1
2.9
2.6
2.2
2.5
Population (millions of people)
17
19
24
25
27
28
30
31
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.9
1.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 37.30 
 46.01 
 56.95 
 61.49 
 66.4 
 71.4 
 76.6 
 81.6 
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 5.06 
 5.38 
 5.27 
 5.07 
 4.97 
 4.84 
 4.70 
 4.55 
0.2
-0.8
-0.5
-0.6
-0.6
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 136 
 117 
 92 
 82 
 75 
 68 
 61 
 56 
-1.5
-2.3
-1.9
-1.9
-2.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 89 
 79 
 60 
 54 
 49 
 44 
 41 
 37 
-1.6
-2.1
-1.9
-1.7
-1.9
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 110 
 95 
 73 
 63 
 57 
 51 
 45 
 40 
-1.6
-2.7
-2.3
-2.3
-2.4
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.81 
 0.81 
 0.79 
 0.77 
 0.76 
 0.75 
 0.73 
 0.72 
-0.1
-0.5
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 10 
 12 
 17 
 19 
 20 
 22 
 23 
 24 
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.4
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.573 
 0.642 
 0.721 
 0.734 
 0.748 
 0.762 
 0.776 
 0.789 
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
86.4
103.1
125.3
128.7
133.5
136.7
138.7
140.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.4
Coal
35.1
43.1
42.9
41.0
40.7
39.5
37.6
35.4
40.7
41.8
34.2
31.8
30.5
28.9
27.1
25.3
0.8
-0.9
-0.4
-1.1
-0.8
Oil
31.2
34.2
41.9
42.6
42.8
42.8
42.7
42.3
36.1
33.1
33.4
33.1
32.1
31.4
30.8
30.2
1.2
0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.0
Natural gas
14.8
19.3
32.2
35.1
38.8
41.8
44.5
46.9
17.1
18.7
25.7
27.2
29.0
30.6
32.1
33.5
3.2
1.7
1.8
1.1
1.5
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
1.2
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
-0.2
5.8
0.0
0.0
1.1
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
111.9
1.1
1.0
17.2
Others
4.0
5.1
7.1
8.5
9.7
11.0
12.4
13.8
4.7
5.0
5.7
6.6
7.3
8.0
9.0
9.9
2.3
3.5
2.6
2.4
2.7
Biomass
4.0
4.9
4.6
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.1
4.6
4.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
0.6
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.4
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.1
0.1
1.9
2.9
4.0
5.1
6.4
7.8
0.1
0.1
1.5
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.6
5.6
13.3
9.5
5.7
4.4
5.9
Biofuels
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
-
1.9
1.0
0.9
1.1
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
154.3
209.9
252.3
274.9
299.7
325.1
350.0
373.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.0
1.7
1.7
1.4
1.6
Coal
121.5
174.2
158.6
154.1
153.2
151.8
147.3
141.4
78.7
83.0
62.9
56.0
51.1
46.7
42.1
37.8
1.1
-0.6
-0.1
-0.7
-0.5
Oil
3.6
1.8
6.8
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.6
2.3
0.9
2.7
2.4
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
2.6
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.1
Natural gas
14.4
16.2
52.5
63.0
76.1
90.5
104.4
118.6
9.3
7.7
20.8
22.9
25.4
27.8
29.8
31.7
5.3
3.7
3.7
2.7
3.3
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
14.1
16.4
13.4
17.7
17.7
17.7
17.7
17.7
9.2
7.8
5.3
6.4
5.9
5.4
5.1
4.7
-0.2
5.8
0.0
0.0
1.1
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
111.9
1.1
1.0
17.2
Others
0.8
1.2
21.0
33.4
45.8
58.2
73.8
89.4
0.5
0.6
8.3
12.2
15.3
17.9
21.1
23.9
14.3
9.7
5.7
4.4
6.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
33.3
45.8
52.0
52.2
54.8
56.0
56.2
56.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.8
0.1
0.7
0.0
0.3
Coal
28.9
41.2
38.8
36.9
36.7
35.6
33.9
31.9
86.8
90.0
74.5
70.8
66.9
63.6
60.3
56.9
1.2
-1.0
-0.4
-1.1
-0.8
Oil
0.9
0.5
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.8
1.1
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
1.5
2.4
0.3
-0.1
0.5
Natural gas
3.5
4.1
11.9
13.7
16.6
18.8
20.7
22.6
10.4
8.9
22.9
26.3
30.2
33.5
36.9
40.3
5.0
2.9
3.2
1.8
2.6
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
70.3
83.9
98.8
99.1
101.2
101.9
101.3
100.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.4
0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.1
Coal
37.9
46.6
46.3
44.3
43.9
42.6
40.6
38.3
54.0
55.5
46.9
44.7
43.4
41.8
40.0
38.2
0.8
-0.9
-0.4
-1.1
-0.8
Oil
23.2
25.2
32.3
32.9
33.0
33.0
32.9
32.6
33.0
30.0
32.7
33.2
32.6
32.4
32.4
32.5
1.3
0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.0
Natural gas
9.2
12.1
20.1
21.9
24.3
26.2
27.9
29.4
13.1
14.5
20.4
22.1
24.0
25.7
27.5
29.3
3.2
1.7
1.8
1.2
1.5
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
36.0
36.1
36.0
36.9
37.0
38.3
39.6
40.9
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.5
Coal
36.1
36.4
35.2
35.9
35.9
36.7
37.4
38.1
-0.1
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.3
Oil
32.3
29.2
42.9
37.5
37.2
36.9
36.6
36.3
1.1
-2.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.7
Natural gas
35.6
34.4
38.0
39.5
39.5
41.4
43.3
45.2
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.9
0.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
56.7
69.6
81.3
84.4
87.1
89.7
92.0
94.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.6
Industry
19.3
23.8
24.0
25.1
25.8
26.5
27.0
27.5
34.1
34.2
29.5
29.7
29.6
29.5
29.4
29.2
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.5
Transportation
21.1
25.7
32.5
33.0
33.1
33.3
33.4
33.5
37.3
36.9
40.0
39.1
38.1
37.1
36.3
35.6
1.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
Others
12.3
15.7
20.7
22.2
23.9
25.6
27.2
28.7
21.7
22.6
25.5
26.3
27.5
28.6
29.6
30.5
2.1
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.3
Non-energy
4.0
4.4
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.4
7.0
6.4
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.7
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
Total
56.7
69.6
81.3
84.4
87.1
89.7
92.0
94.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.6
Coal
4.6
4.2
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
8.0
6.0
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
-2.6
-0.5
-0.9
-1.2
-0.9
Oil
29.0
34.7
42.6
43.2
43.4
43.5
43.4
43.2
51.2
49.9
52.4
51.2
49.8
48.5
47.2
46.0
1.5
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.1
Natural gas
8.7
11.4
13.5
14.2
14.7
15.3
15.7
16.1
15.3
16.4
16.6
16.8
16.9
17.0
17.1
17.1
1.8
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
Electricity
11.1
14.9
18.2
19.8
21.7
23.6
25.6
27.5
19.6
21.4
22.4
23.5
24.9
26.3
27.8
29.2
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.7
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
3.3
4.4
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.9
6.4
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
1.4
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.6
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Australia (BAU)


353
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
636
881
1,355
1,561
1,782
2,016
2,260
2,510
3.1
2.9
2.6
2.2
2.5
Population (millions of people)
17
19
24
25
27
28
30
31
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.9
1.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 37.30 
 46.01 
 56.95 
 61.49 
 66.4 
 71.4 
 76.6 
 81.6 
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 5.06 
 5.38 
 5.27 
 4.94 
 4.66 
 4.40 
 4.14 
 3.90 
0.2
-1.3
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 136 
 117 
 92 
 80 
 70 
 62 
 54 
 48 
-1.5
-2.8
-2.6
-2.5
-2.6
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 89 
 79 
 60 
 54 
 47 
 42 
 38 
 34 
-1.6
-2.3
-2.4
-2.2
-2.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 110 
 95 
 73 
 61 
 52 
 44 
 37 
 32 
-1.6
-3.5
-3.2
-3.2
-3.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.81 
 0.81 
 0.79 
 0.76 
 0.74 
 0.72 
 0.69 
 0.67 
-0.1
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 10 
 12 
 17 
 19 
 20 
 22 
 23 
 24 
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.4
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.573 
 0.642 
 0.721 
 0.734 
 0.748 
 0.762 
 0.776 
 0.789 
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
86.4
103.1
125.3
125.5
125.0
124.1
122.3
119.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
Coal
35.1
43.1
42.9
38.8
35.9
33.2
30.2
27.2
40.7
41.8
34.2
30.9
28.7
26.7
24.7
22.7
0.8
-2.0
-1.6
-2.0
-1.8
Oil
31.2
34.2
41.9
41.8
40.7
39.1
37.2
35.2
36.1
33.1
33.4
33.3
32.6
31.5
30.4
29.4
1.2
0.0
-0.7
-1.0
-0.7
Natural gas
14.8
19.3
32.2
33.9
35.4
36.9
37.9
38.5
17.1
18.7
25.7
27.0
28.3
29.7
31.0
32.1
3.2
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.7
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
1.2
1.4
1.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.9
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
-0.2
5.8
0.0
0.0
1.1
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
112.6
3.0
1.1
18.2
Others
4.0
5.1
7.1
9.4
11.4
13.4
15.5
17.5
4.7
5.0
5.7
7.5
9.1
10.8
12.7
14.6
2.3
5.6
3.6
2.7
3.7
Biomass
4.0
4.9
4.6
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.6
4.7
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.1
0.6
1.2
0.2
-0.1
0.3
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.1
0.1
1.9
3.5
5.1
6.7
8.5
10.3
0.1
0.1
1.5
2.8
4.1
5.4
7.0
8.6
13.3
13.5
6.8
4.3
7.1
Biofuels
0.0
0.1
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.6
2.0
2.3
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.9
-
7.6
4.8
3.5
4.8
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
154.3
209.9
252.3
272.0
292.6
313.5
333.7
352.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.3
Coal
121.5
174.2
158.6
146.8
139.3
131.9
122.9
113.0
78.7
83.0
62.9
54.0
47.6
42.1
36.8
32.1
1.1
-1.5
-1.1
-1.5
-1.3
Oil
3.6
1.8
6.8
6.4
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.3
2.3
0.9
2.7
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
2.6
-1.3
-0.7
-1.1
-1.0
Natural gas
14.4
16.2
52.5
60.0
69.2
78.6
87.1
94.8
9.3
7.7
20.8
22.1
23.7
25.1
26.1
26.9
5.3
2.7
2.7
1.9
2.4
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
14.1
16.4
13.4
17.7
17.7
17.7
17.7
17.7
9.2
7.8
5.3
6.5
6.0
5.6
5.3
5.0
-0.2
5.8
0.0
0.0
1.1
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
112.6
3.0
1.1
18.2
Others
0.8
1.2
21.0
41.1
60.2
79.2
100.3
121.4
0.5
0.6
8.3
15.1
20.6
25.3
30.1
34.5
14.3
14.3
6.8
4.4
7.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
33.3
45.8
52.0
49.1
47.7
46.3
44.4
42.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.8
-1.2
-0.6
-0.9
-0.8
Coal
28.9
41.2
38.8
34.9
32.2
29.7
27.0
24.2
86.8
90.0
74.5
71.1
67.6
64.1
60.7
57.2
1.2
-2.1
-1.6
-2.0
-1.9
Oil
0.9
0.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
2.8
1.1
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
1.5
-1.3
-0.7
-1.1
-1.0
Natural gas
3.5
4.1
11.9
12.9
14.2
15.4
16.3
17.0
10.4
8.9
22.9
26.3
29.8
33.3
36.8
40.3
5.0
1.7
1.8
1.0
1.5
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
70.3
83.9
98.8
95.4
92.2
88.8
84.6
80.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.4
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
-0.8
Coal
37.9
46.6
46.3
41.9
38.8
35.8
32.6
29.3
54.0
55.5
46.9
44.0
42.1
40.4
38.6
36.7
0.8
-2.0
-1.6
-2.0
-1.8
Oil
23.2
25.2
32.3
32.3
31.3
29.9
28.3
26.6
33.0
30.0
32.7
33.8
33.9
33.7
33.4
33.3
1.3
-0.1
-0.8
-1.1
-0.8
Natural gas
9.2
12.1
20.1
21.2
22.1
23.0
23.6
24.0
13.1
14.5
20.4
22.2
24.0
25.9
28.0
30.0
3.2
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.7
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
36.0
36.1
36.0
37.4
38.7
40.2
41.7
43.3
0.0
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
Coal
36.1
36.4
35.2
36.2
37.2
38.2
39.2
40.2
-0.1
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
Oil
32.3
29.2
42.9
42.9
42.9
42.9
42.9
42.9
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
35.6
34.4
38.0
39.9
41.9
43.9
45.8
47.8
0.3
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
56.7
69.6
81.3
83.6
84.6
85.0
84.8
84.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.2
Industry
19.3
23.8
24.0
24.9
25.3
25.6
25.7
25.5
34.1
34.2
29.5
29.8
30.0
30.2
30.3
30.2
0.9
0.7
0.3
-0.1
0.2
Transportation
21.1
25.7
32.5
32.7
32.0
31.0
29.9
29.0
37.3
36.9
40.0
39.1
37.8
36.5
35.3
34.3
1.7
0.1
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
Others
12.3
15.7
20.7
21.8
23.0
24.0
24.9
25.6
21.7
22.6
25.5
26.1
27.2
28.3
29.4
30.3
2.1
1.1
1.0
0.6
0.9
Non-energy
4.0
4.4
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.4
7.0
6.4
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
Total
56.7
69.6
81.3
83.6
84.6
85.0
84.8
84.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.2
Coal
4.6
4.2
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.7
8.0
6.0
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.0
-2.6
-0.6
-1.2
-1.7
-1.3
Oil
29.0
34.7
42.6
42.6
41.6
39.9
38.1
36.2
51.2
49.9
52.4
51.0
49.1
47.0
44.9
42.8
1.5
0.0
-0.7
-1.0
-0.6
Natural gas
8.7
11.4
13.5
14.0
14.4
14.6
14.7
14.7
15.3
16.4
16.6
16.8
17.0
17.2
17.3
17.4
1.8
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.3
Electricity
11.1
14.9
18.2
19.6
21.2
22.8
24.4
25.9
19.6
21.4
22.4
23.5
25.0
26.8
28.7
30.6
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.4
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
3.3
4.4
4.7
5.0
5.4
5.6
5.9
6.0
5.9
6.4
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.6
6.9
7.2
1.4
1.4
1.1
0.7
1.0
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Australia (APS)


354
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
6.9
8.6
13.9
17.6
25.5
36.4
51.8
54.5
2.8
4.9
7.5
4.1
5.6
Population (millions of people)
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
1.3
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.3
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 23.0 
 28.7 
 33.3 
 38.09 
 49.3 
 62.7 
 79.7 
 74.9 
1.5
2.7
5.1
1.8
3.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 5.7 
 8.0 
 7.8 
 13.35 
 14.13 
 13.79 
 13.86 
 12.90 
1.3
11.3
0.3
-0.7
2.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 246 
 279 
 235 
 350 
 287 
 220 
 174 
 172 
-0.2
8.4
-4.5
-2.4
-1.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 52 
 65 
 58 
 179 
 143 
 111 
 89 
 88 
0.4
25.3
-4.6
-2.4
1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 130 
 163 
 480 
 535 
 427 
 346 
 291 
 293 
5.4
2.2
-4.3
-1.7
-2.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.5 
 0.6 
 2.0 
 1.53 
 1.49 
 1.57 
 1.67 
 1.70 
5.6
-5.7
0.3
0.8
-0.7
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.70
2.40
3.26
6.18
7.32
8.00
9.01
9.39
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
13.7
2.6
1.6
4.3
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
9.5
8.7
7.7
7.4
-
-
15.8
0.0
-
Oil
0.00
0.50
0.19
0.97
1.16
1.43
1.83
1.84
0.0
20.8
5.7
15.8
15.8
17.9
20.4
19.6
-
39.2
3.9
2.5
9.6
Natural gas
1.70
1.90
3.07
5.04
5.47
5.87
6.48
6.86
100.0
79.2
94.3
81.6
74.7
73.4
71.9
73.0
2.4
10.4
1.5
1.6
3.3
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Biomass
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
10.2
0.0
0.0
2.0
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.17
2.54
3.78
5.83
10.98
12.93
15.94
17.74
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.8
9.1
8.3
3.2
6.4
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.84
3.64
3.64
3.64
3.64
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.4
33.2
28.2
22.9
20.5
-
-
15.8
0.0
-
Oil
0.01
0.02
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.9
0.8
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
5.5
-5.9
-0.6
0.6
-1.2
Natural gas
1.16
2.52
3.74
4.96
7.31
9.26
12.26
14.06
99.1
99.2
99.0
85.1
66.6
71.6
77.0
79.3
4.8
5.8
6.4
4.3
5.4
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
10.2
0.0
0.0
2.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.46
0.87
1.23
1.68
2.63
3.01
3.59
3.96
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
6.5
6.0
2.8
4.8
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.5
26.5
23.1
19.4
17.6
-
-
15.8
0.0
-
Oil
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.0
1.1
0.9
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
-
-5.9
-0.6
0.6
-1.2
Natural gas
0.46
0.86
1.22
1.51
1.92
2.31
2.89
3.26
100.0
98.9
99.1
90.0
73.2
76.7
80.4
82.2
4.0
4.5
4.3
3.5
4.0
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.9
1.4
6.7
9.4
10.9
12.6
15.0
16.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.3
7.2
2.9
2.4
3.6
Coal
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.9
5.9
5.1
4.3
4.1
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
0.2
0.5
1.6
3.0
3.5
4.3
5.3
5.3
22.2
35.7
23.6
32.2
32.3
33.8
35.3
33.4
8.6
14.1
3.4
2.3
5.0
Natural gas
0.7
0.9
5.1
5.8
6.7
7.7
9.1
10.0
77.8
64.3
76.4
60.9
61.8
61.0
60.4
62.5
8.3
2.4
2.9
2.6
2.7
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
22
25
26
30
36
37
38
39
0.8
2.4
2.2
0.4
1.5
Coal
-
-
-
45
45
45
45
45
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
-
17
30
30
30
30
30
30
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
22
25
26
28
33
34
36
37
0.8
1.3
2.0
0.7
1.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.36
0.56
0.80
3.15
3.65
4.04
4.62
4.78
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.3
31.4
2.5
1.7
7.4
Industry
0.06
0.07
0.20
0.32
0.66
0.84
1.13
1.13
16.7
12.5
25.1
10.0
18.1
20.8
24.5
23.7
5.0
9.3
10.3
3.0
7.1
Transportation
0.19
0.26
0.31
0.76
0.82
0.89
0.96
0.96
52.8
46.4
38.2
24.2
22.5
21.9
20.7
20.1
1.9
19.9
1.5
0.8
4.7
Others
0.09
0.21
0.28
0.33
0.43
0.57
0.79
0.94
25.0
37.5
34.3
10.6
11.7
14.1
17.1
19.7
4.6
3.8
5.6
5.1
5.0
Non-energy
0.02
0.02
0.02
1.74
1.74
1.74
1.74
1.75
5.6
3.6
2.4
55.3
47.8
43.1
37.7
36.5
-0.2
146.8
0.0
0.0
19.8
Total
0.35
0.57
0.80
3.15
3.65
4.04
4.62
4.78
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
31.4
2.5
1.7
7.4
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Oil
0.26
0.36
0.52
1.00
1.16
1.40
1.74
1.75
74.3
63.2
64.5
31.7
31.7
34.5
37.6
36.5
2.8
14.0
3.4
2.3
5.0
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.03
1.74
1.75
1.75
1.76
1.77
0.0
0.0
3.6
55.4
48.0
43.4
38.1
37.0
-
127.3
0.1
0.1
17.9
Electricity
0.09
0.21
0.26
0.41
0.74
0.89
1.12
1.26
25.7
36.8
31.9
12.9
20.3
22.1
24.3
26.5
4.3
9.6
8.2
3.6
6.6
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Brunei Darussalam (BAU)


355
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
6.9
8.6
13.9
17.6
25.5
36.4
51.8
54.5
2.8
4.9
7.5
4.1
5.6
Population (millions of people)
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
1.3
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.3
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 23.0 
 28.7 
 33.3 
 38.09 
 49.3 
 62.7 
 79.7 
 74.9 
1.5
2.7
5.1
1.8
3.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 5.7 
 8.0 
 7.8 
 12.75 
 13.26 
 12.22 
 11.12 
 10.49 
1.3
10.3
-0.4
-1.5
1.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 246 
 279 
 235 
 335 
 269 
 195 
 140 
 140 
-0.2
7.4
-5.3
-3.3
-2.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 52 
 65 
 58 
 174 
 134 
 97 
 72 
 71 
0.4
24.6
-5.6
-3.1
0.8
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 130 
 163 
 480 
 497 
 382 
 282 
 204 
 211 
5.4
0.7
-5.5
-2.8
-3.2
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.5 
 0.6 
 2.0 
 1.49 
 1.42 
 1.44 
 1.46 
 1.51 
5.6
-6.2
-0.3
0.4
-1.2
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.70
2.40
3.26
5.90
6.87
7.09
7.23
7.63
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
12.6
1.9
0.7
3.5
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.7
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
0.0
0.5
0.19
0.93
0.99
1.06
1.25
1.25
0.0
20.8
5.7
15.7
14.4
15.0
17.3
16.4
-
37.8
1.4
1.7
7.9
Natural gas
1.7
1.9
3.07
4.81
5.73
5.87
5.82
6.22
100.0
79.2
94.3
81.6
83.3
82.8
80.5
81.5
2.4
9.4
2.0
0.6
2.9
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Biomass
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.02
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.07
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.6
1.0
1.0
-
194.7
8.8
5.1
30.9
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.17
2.54
3.78
5.37
10.28
11.10
11.28
13.08
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.8
7.3
7.5
1.7
5.1
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.7
8.2
7.6
7.5
6.4
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.9
0.8
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
5.5
-10.6
0.8
0.2
-1.8
Natural gas
1.2
2.5
3.74
4.29
9.07
9.71
9.57
11.36
99.1
99.2
99.0
79.8
88.2
87.5
84.8
86.8
4.8
2.8
8.5
1.6
4.5
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.22
0.35
0.52
0.85
0.86
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.2
3.4
4.7
7.5
6.6
-
193.6
8.7
5.2
30.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.46
0.87
1.23
1.46
2.36
2.49
2.43
2.81
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
3.5
5.5
1.2
3.4
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.0
6.8
6.5
6.6
5.7
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.0
1.1
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
-
-10.6
0.8
0.2
-1.8
Natural gas
0.5
0.9
1.22
1.29
2.19
2.32
2.26
2.64
100.0
98.9
99.1
88.5
92.9
93.3
93.1
94.0
4.0
1.2
6.0
1.3
3.1
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.9
1.4
6.7
8.8
9.8
10.2
10.6
11.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.3
5.6
1.6
1.2
2.2
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.4
6.6
6.3
6.1
5.6
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
0.2
0.5
1.6
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.6
3.6
22.2
35.7
23.6
33.1
31.0
31.0
34.4
31.7
8.6
13.0
0.9
1.4
3.4
Natural gas
0.7
0.9
5.1
5.2
6.1
6.4
6.3
7.2
77.8
64.3
76.4
59.5
62.4
62.6
59.5
62.7
8.3
0.5
2.1
1.2
1.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
21.9
25.1
26.5
30.4
36.3
36.6
37.0
37.4
0.8
2.8
1.9
0.2
1.4
Coal
-
-
-
45.0
45.0
45.0
45.0
45.0
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Oil
-
17.2
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
21.7
25.2
26.4
28.6
35.6
36.0
36.4
37.0
0.8
1.6
2.3
0.3
1.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.36
0.56
0.80
3.06
3.42
3.54
3.71
3.86
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.3
30.7
1.5
0.9
6.5
Industry
0.1
0.1
0.20
0.29
0.63
0.76
0.94
0.94
16.7
12.5
25.1
9.5
18.3
21.6
25.3
24.3
5.0
7.7
10.1
2.1
6.3
Transportation
0.2
0.3
0.31
0.74
0.69
0.61
0.60
0.60
52.8
46.4
38.2
24.2
20.2
17.3
16.3
15.7
1.9
19.3
-1.9
-0.2
2.7
Others
0.1
0.2
0.28
0.29
0.36
0.42
0.42
0.57
25.0
37.5
34.3
9.4
10.6
11.9
11.3
14.8
4.6
0.9
3.8
3.1
3.0
Non-energy
0.0
0.0
0.02
1.74
1.74
1.74
1.74
1.74
5.6
3.6
2.4
56.8
50.9
49.2
47.0
45.2
-0.2
146.8
0.0
0.0
19.8
Total
0.35
0.57
0.80
3.06
3.42
3.54
3.71
3.86
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
30.7
1.5
0.9
6.5
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Oil
0.3
0.4
0.52
0.96
1.00
1.04
1.19
1.20
74.3
63.2
64.5
31.2
29.1
29.5
32.1
31.0
2.8
13.0
0.9
1.4
3.4
Natural gas
0.0
0.0
0.03
1.74
1.75
1.75
1.76
1.77
0.0
0.0
3.6
57.0
51.1
49.6
47.5
45.8
-
127.3
0.1
0.1
17.9
Electricity
0.1
0.2
0.26
0.36
0.68
0.74
0.75
0.89
25.7
36.8
31.9
11.8
19.8
20.9
20.4
23.2
4.3
7.2
7.4
1.9
5.1
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Brunei Darussalam (APS )


356
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
4
5
15.9
20.8
27.2
35.5
46.4
60.6
7.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
Population (millions of people)
9
12
15.5
16.7
18.0
19.4
20.9
22.5
2.8
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.4 
 0.4 
 1.0 
 1.24 
 1.5 
 1.8 
 2.2 
 2.7 
4.7
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 0.5 
 0.53 
 0.55 
 0.58 
 0.62 
 0.68 
1.8
3.4
0.8
1.6
1.6
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 775 
 657 
 442 
 430 
 364 
 316 
 277 
 251 
-2.8
-0.6
-3.0
-2.3
-2.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 695 
 567 
 373 
 354 
 302 
 257 
 221 
 194 
-3.1
-1.0
-3.1
-2.8
-2.6
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 108 
 96 
 127 
 158 
 143 
 135 
 127 
 125 
0.8
4.4
-1.6
-0.7
-0.1
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.1 
 0.1 
 0.3 
 0.37 
 0.39 
 0.43 
 0.46 
 0.50 
3.7
5.0
1.5
1.6
2.2
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.84
3.42
7.04
8.94
9.90
11.24
12.86
15.24
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.7
4.9
2.3
3.1
3.1
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.59
1.23
1.44
1.66
2.24
2.97
0.0
0.0
8.3
13.7
14.5
14.8
17.4
19.5
-
16.0
3.0
6.0
6.7
Oil
0.51
0.70
1.93
2.65
3.17
3.64
4.14
4.75
18.0
20.5
27.4
29.7
32.0
32.4
32.2
31.2
5.4
6.6
3.2
2.7
3.7
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.43
0.56
1.25
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.9
4.4
8.2
-
-
-
11.2
-
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.17
0.49
0.67
0.82
1.12
1.51
0.0
0.0
2.4
5.5
6.8
7.3
8.7
9.9
-
23.5
5.2
6.2
9.1
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
2.33
2.72
4.35
4.57
4.62
4.69
4.80
4.76
82.0
79.5
61.8
51.1
46.7
41.7
37.3
31.2
2.5
1.0
0.3
0.2
0.4
Biomass
2.33
2.72
4.22
4.41
4.46
4.53
4.62
4.57
82.0
79.5
60.0
49.3
45.1
40.3
35.9
30.0
2.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.3
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
-
33.7
-5.0
46.5
21.0
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.0
0.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
-
3.6
0.0
0.0
0.7
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.20
0.45
4.40
10.61
14.03
19.05
26.57
38.20
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
13.2
19.3
6.0
7.2
9.0
Coal
0.00
0.00
2.13
4.52
5.95
6.87
9.82
13.04
0.0
0.0
48.4
42.6
42.4
36.1
37.0
34.1
-
16.3
4.3
6.6
7.5
Oil
0.20
0.45
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.0
100.0
5.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.42
3.15
7.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.7
11.8
18.3
-
-
-
11.2
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
2.00
5.74
7.83
9.55
13.05
17.51
0.0
0.0
45.5
54.1
55.8
50.1
49.1
45.8
-
23.5
5.2
6.2
9.1
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.34
0.26
0.21
0.56
0.65
0.0
0.0
0.9
3.2
1.8
1.1
2.1
1.7
-
53.1
-5.0
12.2
11.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.10
0.09
0.63
1.22
1.42
2.08
2.79
4.20
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
13.9
5.5
7.3
7.9
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.57
1.22
1.42
1.64
2.22
2.95
0.0
0.0
90.5
100.0
100.0
79.1
79.8
70.2
-
16.2
3.1
6.0
6.8
Oil
0.10
0.09
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.0
100.0
9.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.43
0.56
1.25
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
20.9
20.2
29.8
-
-
-
11.2
-
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.40
0.50
2.02
3.27
3.90
4.78
5.89
7.60
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.7
10.1
3.9
4.7
5.4
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.63
1.33
1.56
1.80
2.44
3.24
0.0
0.0
31.2
40.8
40.0
37.7
41.5
42.7
-
16.2
3.1
6.0
6.8
Oil
0.40
0.50
1.39
1.94
2.34
2.70
3.08
3.55
100.0
100.0
68.8
59.2
60.0
56.5
52.4
46.8
5.1
6.9
3.4
2.8
3.8
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.28
0.36
0.80
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.8
6.1
10.6
-
-
-
11.2
-
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
17.2
43.0
31.9
32.0
36.0
38.5
40.0
41.0
2.5
0.0
1.9
0.6
1.0
Coal
-
-
31.9
32.0
36.0
36.0
38.0
38.0
-
0.1
1.2
0.5
0.7
Oil
17.2
43.0
32.5
-
-
-
-
-
2.6
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
-
-
-
-
-
48.0
48.0
48.0
-
-
-
0.0
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.543
2.950
5.925
7.350
8.196
9.123
10.272
11.770
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
4.4
2.2
2.6
2.8
Industry
0.44
0.61
1.03
1.14
1.25
1.45
1.80
2.41
17.2
20.7
17.4
15.5
15.3
15.9
17.5
20.5
3.5
2.0
2.5
5.2
3.5
Transportation
0.38
0.43
1.39
1.91
2.29
2.66
3.08
3.59
15.0
14.6
23.5
26.0
27.9
29.2
29.9
30.5
5.3
6.5
3.4
3.0
3.9
Others
1.72
1.90
3.45
4.25
4.59
4.94
5.32
5.67
67.5
64.4
58.3
57.8
56.1
54.2
51.8
48.1
2.8
4.2
1.5
1.4
2.0
Non-energy
0.01
0.01
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.10
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
7.8
3.3
2.3
4.0
3.2
Total
2.54
2.95
5.93
7.35
8.20
9.12
10.27
11.77
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
4.4
2.2
2.6
2.8
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Oil
0.44
0.54
1.87
2.65
3.17
3.64
4.14
4.75
17.3
18.1
31.5
36.1
38.6
39.9
40.3
40.3
6.0
7.3
3.2
2.7
3.8
Natural gas
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.01
0.03
0.43
1.01
1.29
1.70
2.30
3.24
0.4
1.0
7.2
13.8
15.7
18.6
22.4
27.6
15.8
18.8
5.3
6.7
8.4
Heat
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
2.09
2.39
3.62
3.67
3.72
3.77
3.81
3.76
82.3
80.8
61.1
50.0
45.4
41.3
37.1
31.9
2.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.2
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Cambodia (BAU)


357
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
3.7
5.2
15.9
20.8
27.2
35.5
46.4
60.6
7.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
Population (millions of people)
9.0
12.2
15.5
16.7
18.0
19.4
20.9
22.5
2.8
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.4 
 0.4 
 1.0 
 1.24 
 1.5 
 1.8 
 2.2 
 2.7 
4.7
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 0.5 
 0.51 
 0.53 
 0.52 
 0.51 
 0.58 
1.8
2.4
0.2
1.1
1.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 775 
 657 
 442 
 411 
 352 
 284 
 232 
 215 
-2.8
-1.5
-3.6
-2.7
-2.8
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 695 
 567 
 373 
 340 
 279 
 228 
 188 
 165 
-3.1
-1.8
-3.9
-3.2
-3.2
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 108 
 96 
 127 
 142 
 132 
 105 
 84 
 82 
0.8
2.2
-3.0
-2.4
-1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.1 
 0.1 
 0.3 
 0.35 
 0.38 
 0.37 
 0.36 
 0.38 
3.7
3.7
0.7
0.3
1.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.84
3.42
7.04
8.54
9.55
10.08
10.76
13.04
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.7
4.0
1.7
2.6
2.5
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.59
0.88
1.22
1.14
1.10
2.49
0.0
0.0
8.3
10.3
12.7
11.3
10.2
19.1
-
8.6
2.6
8.1
5.9
Oil
0.51
0.70
1.93
2.55
3.23
3.54
3.83
4.35
18.0
20.5
27.4
29.9
33.9
35.1
35.6
33.4
5.4
5.8
3.3
2.1
3.3
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.17
0.14
0.15
0.19
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.4
-
-
-3.2
2.8
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.17
0.35
0.31
0.53
0.83
0.93
0.0
0.0
2.4
4.1
3.3
5.3
7.7
7.1
-
15.5
4.2
5.7
7.0
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
2.33
2.72
4.35
4.55
4.62
4.73
4.86
5.09
82.0
79.5
61.8
53.3
48.3
46.9
45.1
39.0
2.5
0.9
0.4
0.7
0.6
Biomass
2.33
2.72
4.22
4.30
4.24
4.23
4.23
4.32
82.0
79.5
60.0
50.3
44.4
42.0
39.3
33.1
2.4
0.4
-0.2
0.2
0.1
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.03
0.05
0.07
0.09
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
-
107.2
17.3
6.7
26.6
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.24
0.34
0.45
0.56
0.68
0.0
0.0
1.9
2.9
3.5
4.5
5.2
5.2
-
13.3
6.3
4.1
6.8
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.20
0.45
4.40
9.05
10.58
13.04
17.24
25.73
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
13.2
15.5
3.7
7.0
7.3
Coal
0.00
0.00
2.13
3.24
5.03
4.70
4.86
11.29
0.0
0.0
48.4
35.8
47.5
36.1
28.2
43.9
-
8.8
3.8
9.2
6.9
Oil
0.20
0.45
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.0
100.0
5.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.10
0.97
0.79
0.82
1.04
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.2
9.2
6.1
4.8
4.1
-
-
-3.2
2.8
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
2.00
4.11
3.61
6.19
9.69
10.79
0.0
0.0
45.5
45.4
34.2
47.4
56.2
41.9
-
15.5
4.2
5.7
7.0
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.60
0.97
1.36
1.87
2.61
0.0
0.0
0.9
6.6
9.2
10.4
10.9
10.1
-
70.8
8.6
6.7
18.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.10
0.09
0.63
1.07
1.37
1.27
1.22
2.65
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
11.0
1.7
7.7
5.9
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.57
0.87
1.20
1.12
1.08
2.47
0.0
0.0
90.5
81.5
87.4
88.8
88.0
93.0
-
8.7
2.6
8.2
6.0
Oil
0.10
0.09
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.0
100.0
9.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.0
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
-
-
0.00
0.20
0.17
0.14
0.15
0.19
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.5
12.6
11.2
12.0
7.0
-
-
-3.2
2.8
-
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.4
0.5
2.0
2.9
3.6
3.7
3.9
5.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.7
7.8
2.3
2.9
3.7
Coal
0.0
0.0
0.63
0.96
1.32
1.23
1.18
1.83
0.0
0.0
31.2
32.4
36.7
33.2
30.4
36.9
-
8.7
2.6
4.0
4.4
Oil
0.4
0.5
1.39
1.87
2.16
2.39
2.62
3.02
100.0
100.0
68.8
63.3
60.2
64.4
67.2
60.7
5.1
6.0
2.5
2.3
3.1
Natural gas
0.0
0.0
0.00
0.13
0.11
0.09
0.09
0.12
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
3.1
2.4
2.4
2.4
-
-
-3.2
2.8
-
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
17.2
43.0
31.9
35.0
37.5
37.4
39.9
40.0
2.5
1.8
0.7
0.7
0.9
Coal
-
-
31.9
32.0
36.0
36.0
38.8
39.4
-
0.1
1.2
0.9
0.8
Oil
17.2
43.0
32.5
-
-
-
-
-
2.6
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
-
-
-
48.0
48.0
48.0
48.0
48.0
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.54
2.95
5.93
7.08
7.59
8.11
8.75
10.02
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
3.6
1.4
2.1
2.1
Industry
0.44
0.61
1.03
1.10
1.16
1.29
1.53
2.05
17.2
20.7
17.4
15.5
15.3
15.9
17.5
20.5
3.5
1.2
1.6
4.8
2.8
Transportation
0.38
0.43
1.39
1.84
2.12
2.36
2.61
3.05
15.0
14.6
23.5
26.0
27.9
29.2
29.9
30.4
5.3
5.7
2.5
2.6
3.2
Others
1.72
1.90
3.45
4.09
4.25
4.39
4.52
4.82
67.5
64.4
58.3
57.7
56.0
54.1
51.7
48.1
2.8
3.4
0.7
0.9
1.3
Non-energy
0.01
0.01
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.10
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
7.8
3.3
2.3
4.0
3.2
Total
2.54
2.95
5.93
7.08
7.59
8.11
8.75
10.02
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
3.6
1.4
2.1
2.1
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Oil
0.44
0.54
1.87
2.55
2.93
3.24
3.53
4.05
17.3
18.1
31.5
36.1
38.7
39.9
40.3
40.4
6.0
6.5
2.4
2.3
3.1
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.01
0.03
0.43
0.98
1.19
1.51
1.96
2.76
0.4
1.0
7.2
13.8
15.7
18.6
22.4
27.5
15.8
17.9
4.4
6.2
7.7
Heat
0.00
0.00
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
2.09
2.39
3.62
3.53
3.44
3.35
3.24
3.19
82.3
80.8
61.1
49.9
45.4
41.3
37.1
31.9
2.2
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Cambodia (APS)


358
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
830
2,237
8,910
12,206
16,005
20,546
25,701
31,116
10.0
6.5
5.3
4.2
5.1
Population (millions of people)
1,135
1,263
1,371
1,398
1,412
1,415
1,407
1,391
0.8
0.4
0.1
-0.2
0.1
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.73 
 1.77 
 6.50 
 8.73 
 11.3 
 14.5 
 18.3 
 22.4 
9.1
6.1
5.2
4.4
5.1
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.77 
 0.89 
 2.17 
 2.36 
 2.50 
 2.64 
 2.77 
 2.89 
4.2
1.7
1.1
0.9
1.1
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,050 
 505 
 334 
 270 
 220 
 182 
 152 
 129 
-4.5
-4.2
-3.9
-3.4
-3.7
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 789 
 349 
 214 
 175 
 143 
 118 
 98 
 84 
-5.1
-4.0
-3.9
-3.4
-3.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 769 
 386 
 286 
 221 
 175 
 140 
 114 
 94 
-3.9
-5.0
-4.5
-3.9
-4.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.73 
 0.76 
 0.86 
 0.82 
 0.80 
 0.77 
 0.75 
 0.73 
0.6
-0.9
-0.6
-0.5
-0.6
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 5 
 16 
 163 
 250 
 312 
 366 
 405 
 438 
14.7
8.9
3.9
1.8
4.0
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.005 
 0.012 
 0.119 
 0.179 
 0.221 
 0.258 
 0.288 
 0.315 
13.8
8.5
3.8
2.0
4.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
870.7
1,129.8 2,973.3 3,293.5 3,525.8 3,734.5 3,899.2 4,014.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
2.1
1.3
0.7
1.2
Coal
527.6
664.7
1,982.0 2,005.6 2,013.0 2,006.6
1,992.1
1,938.6
60.6
58.8
66.7
60.9
57.1
53.7
51.1
48.3
5.4
0.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
Oil
118.8
220.8
533.7
652.6
729.2
788.9
825.5
853.4
13.6
19.5
18.0
19.8
20.7
21.1
21.2
21.3
6.2
4.1
1.9
0.8
1.9
Natural gas
12.8
20.8
158.5
236.2
313.1
392.7
475.2
556.5
1.5
1.8
5.3
7.2
8.9
10.5
12.2
13.9
10.6
8.3
5.2
3.5
5.2
Nuclear
0.0
4.4
44.5
106.2
151.9
197.5
224.9
252.3
0.0
0.4
1.5
3.2
4.3
5.3
5.8
6.3
-
19.0
6.4
2.5
7.2
Hydro
10.9
19.1
95.8
107.9
113.5
118.5
123.0
125.6
1.3
1.7
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
9.1
2.4
0.9
0.6
1.1
Geothermal
0.0
1.7
5.1
6.0
6.6
7.3
8.0
8.6
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-
3.3
2.1
1.6
2.1
Others
200.6
198.4
153.6
179.0
198.5
222.9
250.5
280.0
23.0
17.6
5.2
5.4
5.6
6.0
6.4
7.0
-1.1
3.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Biomass
200.4
197.0
104.0
101.3
93.7
90.2
93.6
98.9
23.0
17.4
3.5
3.1
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.5
-2.6
-0.5
-1.2
0.9
-0.2
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
1.0
41.2
66.9
92.2
118.0
139.6
161.1
0.0
0.1
1.4
2.0
2.6
3.2
3.6
4.0
33.0
10.2
5.8
3.2
5.6
Biofuels
0.0
1.1
9.5
11.7
13.6
15.8
18.2
21.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
-
4.3
3.0
2.9
3.2
Electricity
0.2
-0.7
-1.1
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-207.9
-1.7
0.0
0.0
-0.3
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
621.3
1,355.7 5,844.2 6,890.9 7,781.0 8,638.0 9,427.9 10,054.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.4
3.4
2.3
1.5
2.2
Coal
441.3
1,060.4 4,109.0 4,345.4
4,540.1 4,690.2 4,858.6 4,889.0
71.0
78.2
70.3
63.1
58.3
54.3
51.5
48.6
9.3
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.7
Oil
50.4
47.3
9.7
9.6
9.3
8.8
8.2
7.2
8.1
3.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-6.4
-0.2
-0.9
-1.9
-1.1
Natural gas
2.8
5.8
145.3
302.9
482.9
682.9
912.1
1,139.3
0.4
0.4
2.5
4.4
6.2
7.9
9.7
11.3
17.2
15.8
8.5
5.3
8.6
Nuclear
0.0
16.7
170.8
407.5
582.7
758.0
863.2
968.3
0.0
1.2
2.9
5.9
7.5
8.8
9.2
9.6
-
19.0
6.4
2.5
7.2
Hydro
126.7
222.4
1,114.5
1,254.3
1,320.3
1,378.0
1,430.7
1,460.2
20.4
16.4
19.1
18.2
17.0
16.0
15.2
14.5
9.1
2.4
0.9
0.6
1.1
Geothermal
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
14.3
4.5
1.4
5.1
Others
0.0
3.1
294.8
571.1
845.4
1,119.7
1,354.8
1,590.0
0.0
0.2
5.0
8.3
10.9
13.0
14.4
15.8
50.4
14.1
7.0
3.6
7.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
144.7
297.2
948.5
1,000.1 1,061.7
1,116.2
1,178.9
1,211.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.8
1.1
1.1
0.8
1.0
Coal
131.7
284.3
920.1
943.7
973.7
993.5
1,016.6
1,010.7
91.0
95.7
97.0
94.4
91.7
89.0
86.2
83.4
8.1
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.4
Oil
12.4
11.6
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.8
8.5
3.9
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
-6.4
-0.2
-0.9
-1.9
-1.1
Natural gas
0.6
1.3
26.1
54.0
85.7
120.6
160.3
199.2
0.4
0.4
2.7
5.4
8.1
10.8
13.6
16.4
16.2
15.7
8.4
5.1
8.5
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
637.8
862.8
2,545.4 2,699.1 2,803.8 2,879.4 2,931.4 2,930.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.6
Coal
549.0
700.9
2,080.5 2,094.7 2,092.8 2,075.8
2,051.3
1,984.0
86.1
81.2
81.7
77.6
74.6
72.1
70.0
67.7
5.5
0.1
-0.1
-0.5
-0.2
Oil
83.5
151.7
369.7
459.9
517.5
559.5
583.5
598.7
13.1
17.6
14.5
17.0
18.5
19.4
19.9
20.4
6.1
4.5
2.0
0.7
1.9
Natural gas
5.3
10.2
95.2
144.5
193.5
244.1
296.7
348.2
0.8
1.2
3.7
5.4
6.9
8.5
10.1
11.9
12.3
8.7
5.4
3.6
5.3
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
29.4
32.2
38.7
40.1
40.8
41.5
42.2
42.8
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.4
Coal
28.8
32.1
38.4
39.6
40.1
40.6
41.1
41.6
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.3
Oil
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
39.0
39.0
47.9
48.2
48.4
48.7
48.9
49.2
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
654.3
781.2
1,905.7 2,133.7 2,286.6 2,421.5 2,524.1 2,602.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
2.3
1.3
0.7
1.3
Industry
233.9
299.0
966.1
1,001.9
1,016.9
1,026.8
1,027.1
1,016.6
35.7
38.3
50.7
47.0
44.5
42.4
40.7
39.1
5.8
0.7
0.2
-0.1
0.2
Transportation
33.5
87.3
298.6
403.4
473.0
524.1
556.6
581.1
5.1
11.2
15.7
18.9
20.7
21.6
22.1
22.3
9.2
6.2
2.7
1.0
2.7
Others
344.1
334.7
483.2
548.2
599.2
653.5
706.7
751.2
52.6
42.8
25.4
25.7
26.2
27.0
28.0
28.9
1.4
2.6
1.8
1.4
1.8
Non-energy
42.9
60.2
157.7
180.2
197.5
217.1
233.7
253.0
6.6
7.7
8.3
8.4
8.6
9.0
9.3
9.7
5.3
2.7
1.9
1.5
1.9
Total
654.3
781.2
1,905.7 2,133.7 2,286.6 2,421.5 2,524.1 2,602.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
2.3
1.3
0.7
1.3
Coal
308.2
274.5
700.8
697.6
678.3
656.7
625.9
588.0
47.1
35.1
36.8
32.7
29.7
27.1
24.8
22.6
3.3
-0.1
-0.6
-1.1
-0.7
Oil
84.6
180.4
480.4
592.1
667.6
723.8
759.0
786.6
12.9
23.1
25.2
27.8
29.2
29.9
30.1
30.2
7.2
4.3
2.0
0.8
2.0
Natural gas
8.9
12.4
105.4
144.0
178.6
212.7
245.2
277.2
1.4
1.6
5.5
6.7
7.8
8.8
9.7
10.7
10.4
6.4
4.0
2.7
3.9
Electricity
39.0
89.1
419.4
495.4
561.1
625.8
687.1
737.6
6.0
11.4
22.0
23.2
24.5
25.8
27.2
28.3
10.0
3.4
2.4
1.7
2.3
Heat
13.2
25.5
83.3
90.4
95.9
101.4
106.2
110.0
2.0
3.3
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
7.6
1.7
1.2
0.8
1.1
Others
200.4
199.3
116.4
114.2
105.0
101.0
100.6
102.5
30.6
25.5
6.1
5.4
4.6
4.2
4.0
3.9
-2.2
-0.4
-1.2
0.1
-0.5
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
China (BAU)


359
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
830
2,237
8,910
12,206
16,005
20,546
25,701
31,116
10.0
6.5
5.3
4.2
5.1
Population (millions of people)
1,135
1,263
1,371
1,398
1,412
1,415
1,407
1,391
0.8
0.4
0.1
-0.2
0.1
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.73 
 1.77 
 6.50 
 8.73 
 11.3 
 14.5 
 18.3 
 22.4 
9.1
6.1
5.2
4.4
5.1
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.77 
 0.89 
 2.17 
 2.31 
 2.38 
 2.44 
 2.48 
 2.51 
4.2
1.3
0.5
0.3
0.6
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,050 
 505 
 334 
 265 
 210 
 168 
 136 
 112 
-4.5
-4.5
-4.4
-3.9
-4.3
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 789 
 349 
 214 
 172 
 138 
 111 
 90 
 75 
-5.1
-4.3
-4.3
-3.8
-4.1
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 769 
 386 
 286 
 216 
 163 
 124 
 95 
 74 
-3.9
-5.5
-5.4
-5.1
-5.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.73 
 0.76 
 0.86 
 0.81 
 0.78 
 0.74 
 0.70 
 0.66 
0.6
-1.0
-1.0
-1.2
-1.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 5 
 16 
 163 
 250 
 312 
 366 
 405 
 438 
14.7
8.9
3.9
1.8
4.0
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.005 
 0.012 
 0.119 
 0.179 
 0.221 
 0.258 
 0.288 
 0.315 
13.8
8.5
3.8
2.0
4.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
870.7
1,129.8 2,973.3 3,232.7 3,357.4 3,452.5 3,494.6 3,494.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
1.7
0.7
0.1
0.6
Coal
527.6
664.7
1,982.0
1,952.8
1,865.0
1,771.8
1,650.6
1,503.0
60.6
58.8
66.7
60.4
55.5
51.3
47.2
43.0
5.4
-0.3
-1.0
-1.6
-1.1
Oil
118.8
220.8
533.7
649.5
708.4
742.6
751.4
752.1
13.6
19.5
18.0
20.1
21.1
21.5
21.5
21.5
6.2
4.0
1.3
0.1
1.4
Natural gas
12.8
20.8
158.5
228.6
289.7
346.4
395.1
435.0
1.5
1.8
5.3
7.1
8.6
10.0
11.3
12.4
10.6
7.6
4.2
2.3
4.1
Nuclear
0.0
4.4
44.5
106.2
170.1
234.1
298.0
362.0
0.0
0.4
1.5
3.3
5.1
6.8
8.5
10.4
-
19.0
8.2
4.5
8.7
Hydro
10.9
19.1
95.8
108.4
115.2
121.6
127.6
131.7
1.3
1.7
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.8
9.1
2.5
1.1
0.8
1.3
Geothermal
0.0
1.7
5.1
6.2
6.5
7.5
8.3
9.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
-
4.2
1.8
2.0
2.4
Others
200.6
198.4
153.6
181.1
202.5
228.7
263.6
302.2
23.0
17.6
5.2
5.6
6.0
6.6
7.5
8.6
-1.1
3.3
2.4
2.8
2.7
Biomass
200.4
197.0
104.0
98.9
89.4
83.8
85.5
90.0
23.0
17.4
3.5
3.1
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.6
-2.6
-1.0
-1.6
0.7
-0.6
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
1.0
41.2
70.0
98.2
126.4
155.0
183.1
0.0
0.1
1.4
2.2
2.9
3.7
4.4
5.2
33.0
11.2
6.1
3.8
6.2
Biofuels
0.0
1.1
9.5
13.1
15.9
19.5
24.1
30.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
-
6.7
4.1
4.4
4.7
Electricity
0.2
-0.7
-1.1
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-207.9
-1.7
0.0
0.0
-0.3
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
621.3
1,355.7 5,844.2 6,766.3 7,461.5 8,121.6 8,704.3
9,129.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.4
3.0
1.8
1.2
1.8
Coal
441.3
1,060.4 4,109.0
4,167.4
4,077.7
3,958.8 3,764.6 3,465.5
71.0
78.2
70.3
61.6
54.6
48.7
43.2
38.0
9.3
0.3
-0.5
-1.3
-0.7
Oil
50.4
47.3
9.7
9.2
8.3
7.4
6.3
5.1
8.1
3.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-6.4
-1.0
-2.1
-3.6
-2.5
Natural gas
2.8
5.8
145.3
290.5
433.7
576.4
706.7
807.6
0.4
0.4
2.5
4.3
5.8
7.1
8.1
8.8
17.2
14.9
7.1
3.4
7.1
Nuclear
0.0
16.7
170.8
407.5
652.8
898.2
1,143.6
1,388.9
0.0
1.2
2.9
6.0
8.7
11.1
13.1
15.2
-
19.0
8.2
4.5
8.7
Hydro
126.7
222.4
1,114.5
1,260.9
1,339.6
1,413.5
1,483.9
1,531.2
20.4
16.4
19.1
18.6
18.0
17.4
17.0
16.8
9.1
2.5
1.1
0.8
1.3
Geothermal
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
19.1
4.8
2.6
6.6
Others
0.0
3.1
294.8
630.6
948.9
1,266.7
1,598.7
1,930.6
0.0
0.2
5.0
9.3
12.7
15.6
18.4
21.1
50.4
16.4
7.2
4.3
7.8
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
144.7
297.2
948.5
964.4
948.1
926.6
889.0
827.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.8
0.3
-0.4
-1.1
-0.5
Coal
131.7
284.3
920.1
910.9
870.5
825.9
767.9
691.5
91.0
95.7
97.0
94.4
91.8
89.1
86.4
83.6
8.1
-0.2
-1.0
-1.8
-1.1
Oil
12.4
11.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.2
8.5
3.9
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
-6.4
-1.3
-2.4
-3.8
-2.7
Natural gas
0.6
1.3
26.1
51.3
75.6
99.0
119.7
134.9
0.4
0.4
2.7
5.3
8.0
10.7
13.5
16.3
16.2
14.5
6.8
3.1
6.8
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
637.8
862.8
2,545.4 2,634.5 2,611.5
2,557.3 2,449.2 2,297.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
0.7
-0.3
-1.1
-0.4
Coal
549.0
700.9
2,080.5 2,037.6
1,933.0
1,822.2
1,682.4
1,513.6
86.1
81.2
81.7
77.3
74.0
71.3
68.7
65.9
5.5
-0.4
-1.1
-1.8
-1.3
Oil
83.5
151.7
369.7
457.3
500.0
520.7
521.5
513.9
13.1
17.6
14.5
17.4
19.1
20.4
21.3
22.4
6.1
4.3
1.3
-0.1
1.3
Natural gas
5.3
10.2
95.2
139.6
178.5
214.4
245.3
270.4
0.8
1.2
3.7
5.3
6.8
8.4
10.0
11.8
12.3
7.9
4.4
2.3
4.3
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
29.4
32.2
38.7
39.8
41.0
42.2
43.3
44.5
1.1
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
Coal
28.8
32.1
38.4
39.3
40.3
41.2
42.2
43.1
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
Oil
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.4
35.8
36.2
36.6
37.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Natural gas
39.0
39.0
47.9
48.7
49.4
50.1
50.8
51.5
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
654.3
781.2
1,905.7 2,097.3 2,201.3 2,278.4 2,318.8 2,334.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
1.9
0.8
0.2
0.8
Industry
233.9
299.0
966.1
977.9
970.2
959.4
938.7
906.0
35.7
38.3
50.7
46.6
44.1
42.1
40.5
38.8
5.8
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
-0.3
Transportation
33.5
87.3
298.6
398.3
455.8
488.2
501.5
509.6
5.1
11.2
15.7
19.0
20.7
21.4
21.6
21.8
9.2
5.9
2.1
0.4
2.2
Others
344.1
334.7
483.2
541.0
577.8
613.6
645.0
666.2
52.6
42.8
25.4
25.8
26.2
26.9
27.8
28.5
1.4
2.3
1.3
0.8
1.3
Non-energy
42.9
60.2
157.7
180.2
197.5
217.1
233.7
253.0
6.6
7.7
8.3
8.6
9.0
9.5
10.1
10.8
5.3
2.7
1.9
1.5
1.9
Total
654.3
781.2
1,905.7 2,097.3 2,201.3 2,278.4 2,318.8 2,334.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
1.9
0.8
0.2
0.8
Coal
308.2
274.5
700.8
687.2
660.0
631.2
593.1
548.0
47.1
35.1
36.8
32.8
30.0
27.7
25.6
23.5
3.3
-0.4
-0.8
-1.4
-1.0
Oil
84.6
180.4
480.4
589.4
648.7
681.5
691.3
693.6
12.9
23.1
25.2
28.1
29.5
29.9
29.8
29.7
7.2
4.2
1.5
0.2
1.5
Natural gas
8.9
12.4
105.4
140.2
169.1
195.0
217.4
237.5
1.4
1.6
5.5
6.7
7.7
8.6
9.4
10.2
10.4
5.9
3.4
2.0
3.3
Electricity
39.0
89.1
419.4
486.4
538.1
588.4
634.3
669.8
6.0
11.4
22.0
23.2
24.4
25.8
27.4
28.7
10.0
3.0
1.9
1.3
1.9
Heat
13.2
25.5
83.3
88.0
91.4
94.5
96.5
97.1
2.0
3.3
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.2
7.6
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.6
Others
200.4
199.3
116.4
106.1
94.0
87.7
86.1
88.6
30.6
25.5
6.1
5.1
4.3
3.9
3.7
3.8
-2.2
-1.8
-1.9
0.1
-1.1
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
China (APS)


360
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
470
809
2,288
3,282
4,710
6,425
8,655
11,486
6.5
7.5
6.9
6.0
6.7
Population (millions of people)
871
1,053
1,311
1,385
1,454
1,515
1,567
1,608
1.7
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.8
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.54 
 0.77 
 1.75 
 2.37 
 3.2 
 4.2 
 5.5 
 7.1 
4.8
6.3
6.0
5.4
5.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.35 
 0.42 
 0.65 
 0.77 
 0.92 
 1.07 
 1.24 
 1.44 
2.5
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 651 
 545 
 372 
 326 
 284 
 253 
 225 
 201 
-2.2
-2.6
-2.5
-2.2
-2.4
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 517 
 390 
 252 
 219 
 190 
 168 
 150 
 136 
-2.8
-2.8
-2.6
-2.1
-2.4
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 315 
 303 
 251 
 229 
 209 
 195 
 179 
 165 
-0.9
-1.8
-1.6
-1.7
-1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.48 
 0.56 
 0.68 
 0.70 
 0.74 
 0.77 
 0.80 
 0.82 
1.3
0.8
0.9
0.6
0.8
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 4 
 9 
 42 
 60 
 91 
 131 
 192 
 284 
9.5
7.5
8.1
8.0
8.0
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.005 
 0.009 
 0.032 
 0.043 
 0.062 
 0.086 
 0.122 
 0.176 
7.7
6.4
7.1
7.4
7.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
305.7
440.9
851.1
1,068.7 1,335.8 1,623.6 1,944.1 2,312.46
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.2
4.7
4.3
3.6
4.1
Coal
92.7
145.9
378.9
505.6
675.2
864.8
1,070.0 1,290.0
30.3
33.1
44.5
47.3
50.5
53.3
55.0
55.8
5.8
5.9
5.5
4.1
5.0
Oil
61.1
112.0
206.2
254.7
316.5
386.2
474.1
592.1
20.0
25.4
24.2
23.8
23.7
23.8
24.4
25.6
5.0
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.3
Natural gas
10.6
23.1
43.2
60.7
83.0
108.8
139.4
175.6
3.5
5.2
5.1
5.7
6.2
6.7
7.2
7.6
5.8
7.0
6.0
4.9
5.8
Nuclear
1.6
4.4
9.8
17.5
25.8
34.7
41.6
48.6
0.5
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.1
7.5
12.4
7.1
3.4
6.6
Hydro
6.2
6.4
11.9
16.0
18.9
21.8
24.7
27.5
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
2.7
6.2
3.1
2.4
3.4
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
133.6
149.1
201.2
214.2
216.5
207.4
194.3
178.6
43.7
33.8
23.6
20.0
16.2
12.8
10.0
7.7
1.7
1.3
-0.3
-1.5
-0.5
Biomass
133.5
148.8
195.5
200.5
195.5
178.9
158.2
134.9
43.7
33.7
23.0
18.8
14.6
11.0
8.1
5.8
1.5
0.5
-1.1
-2.8
-1.5
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.2
4.8
12.5
19.7
27.1
34.6
42.1
0.0
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.8
27.8
21.0
8.0
4.5
9.1
Biofuels
0.0
0.1
0.82
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
-
-1.3
1.9
2.2
1.4
Electricity
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-10.2
121.5
0.0
0.0
17.2
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
292.7
569.7
1,383.0 1,926.1 2,548.9 3,255.4 4,003.6 4,809.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.4
6.8
5.4
4.0
5.1
Coal
191.6
390.2
1,041.5
1,400.9
1,854.6
2,388.5
2,972.4 3,598.9
65.5
68.5
75.3
72.7
72.8
73.4
74.2
74.8
7.0
6.1
5.5
4.2
5.1
Oil
13.3
29.2
23.0
23.4
20.9
13.9
1.4
0.0
4.5
5.1
1.7
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
2.2
0.4
-5.1
-44.6
-22.6
Natural gas
10.0
56.0
68.1
91.1
120.0
153.7
190.2
230.2
3.4
9.8
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
8.0
6.0
5.4
4.1
5.0
Nuclear
6.1
16.9
37.4
67.1
99.0
133.1
159.7
186.3
2.1
3.0
2.7
3.5
3.9
4.1
4.0
3.9
7.5
12.4
7.1
3.4
6.6
Hydro
71.7
74.5
138.1
186.4
219.8
253.3
286.7
320.2
24.5
13.1
10.0
9.7
8.6
7.8
7.2
6.7
2.7
6.2
3.1
2.4
3.4
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
3.0
75.0
157.2
234.6
312.9
393.1
473.4
0.0
0.5
5.4
8.2
9.2
9.6
9.8
9.8
36.4
16.0
7.1
4.2
7.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
56.8
121.4
275.5
357.4
458.6
576.7
700.5
832.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.5
5.3
4.9
3.7
4.5
Coal
48.4
103.2
254.0
331.7
427.9
541.7
662.5
787.5
85.1
85.0
92.2
92.8
93.3
93.9
94.6
94.6
6.9
5.5
5.0
3.8
4.6
Oil
5.0
9.0
7.8
7.5
6.6
4.4
0.5
0.0
8.8
7.4
2.8
2.1
1.4
0.8
0.1
0.0
1.8
-0.8
-5.2
-44.6
-22.9
Natural gas
3.5
9.3
13.6
18.2
24.0
30.6
37.6
45.0
6.1
7.6
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.6
6.0
5.3
3.9
4.9
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
147.9
245.2
574.7
751.7
986.8
1,252.2
1,551.1
1,893.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.6
5.5
5.2
4.2
4.9
Coal
100.1
157.6
409.2
546.0
729.2
934.0
1,155.6
1,393.2
67.7
64.3
71.2
72.6
73.9
74.6
74.5
73.6
5.8
5.9
5.5
4.1
5.0
Oil
44.2
77.7
150.8
185.4
230.2
282.1
349.0
441.2
29.9
31.7
26.2
24.7
23.3
22.5
22.5
23.3
5.0
4.2
4.3
4.6
4.4
Natural gas
3.6
9.9
14.6
20.3
27.5
36.1
46.5
59.3
2.4
4.0
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
5.8
6.7
5.9
5.1
5.8
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.5
33.7
35.4
36.5
37.4
38.1
38.8
39.6
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
Coal
34.1
32.5
35.3
36.3
37.3
37.9
38.6
39.3
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
Oil
22.8
28.0
25.2
26.8
27.1
27.3
27.5
27.7
0.4
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
Natural gas
24.7
52.0
43.0
43.0
43.0
43.1
43.5
44.0
2.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
243.2
315.3
577.7
719.8
896.2
1,081.9 1,299.5 1,560.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.5
4.5
4.2
3.7
4.1
Industry
66.7
83.4
195.3
260.3
341.9
432.8
542.6
673.0
27.4
26.5
33.8
36.2
38.1
40.0
41.8
43.1
4.4
5.9
5.2
4.5
5.1
Transportation
20.8
31.9
86.0
109.9
139.8
176.7
227.6
297.4
8.6
10.1
14.9
15.3
15.6
16.3
17.5
19.1
5.8
5.0
4.9
5.3
5.1
Others
142.3
173.2
249.9
287.3
332.8
370.8
405.2
441.6
58.5
54.9
43.3
39.9
37.1
34.3
31.2
28.3
2.3
2.8
2.6
1.8
2.3
Non-energy
13.3
26.8
46.5
62.3
81.7
101.7
124.1
148.4
5.5
8.5
8.0
8.7
9.1
9.4
9.5
9.5
5.1
6.0
5.0
3.8
4.8
Total
243.2
315.3
577.7
719.8
896.2
1,081.9 1,299.5 1,560.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.5
4.5
4.2
3.7
4.1
Coal
38.6
34.5
108.2
151.0
215.0
281.3
355.0
438.3
15.9
10.9
18.7
21.0
24.0
26.0
27.3
28.1
4.2
6.9
6.4
4.5
5.8
Oil
50.2
94.4
174.4
219.9
278.5
345.9
431.9
542.5
20.6
29.9
30.2
30.6
31.1
32.0
33.2
34.8
5.1
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
Natural gas
5.6
9.7
28.9
41.6
57.7
76.4
99.6
127.7
2.3
3.1
5.0
5.8
6.4
7.1
7.7
8.2
6.8
7.5
6.3
5.3
6.1
Electricity
18.5
32.4
88.3
124.0
165.7
215.1
269.9
331.3
7.6
10.3
15.3
17.2
18.5
19.9
20.8
21.2
6.5
7.0
5.7
4.4
5.4
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
130.3
144.4
177.8
183.4
179.2
163.3
143.2
120.5
53.6
45.8
30.8
25.5
20.0
15.1
11.0
7.7
1.3
0.6
-1.2
-3.0
-1.5
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
India (BAU)


361
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
470
809
2,288
3,282
4,710
6,425
8,655
11,486
6.5
7.5
6.9
6.0
6.7
Population (millions of people)
871
1,053
1,311
1,385
1,454
1,515
1,567
1,608
1.7
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.8
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.54 
 0.77 
 1.75 
 2.37 
 3.2 
 4.2 
 5.5 
 7.1 
4.8
6.3
6.0
5.4
5.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.35 
 0.42 
 0.65 
 0.76 
 0.88 
 0.98 
 1.10 
 1.23 
2.5
3.2
2.6
2.2
2.6
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 651 
 545 
 372 
 320 
 271 
 232 
 199 
 172 
-2.2
-2.9
-3.2
-3.0
-3.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 517 
 390 
 252 
 217 
 185 
 160 
 139 
 122 
-2.8
-3.0
-3.0
-2.7
-2.9
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 315 
 303 
 251 
 223 
 194 
 171 
 148 
 130 
-0.9
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7
-2.6
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.48 
 0.56 
 0.68 
 0.69 
 0.72 
 0.73 
 0.75 
 0.75 
1.3
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.4
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 4 
 9 
 42 
 60 
 91 
 131 
 192 
 284 
9.5
7.5
8.1
8.0
8.0
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.005 
 0.009 
 0.032 
 0.043 
 0.062 
 0.086 
 0.122 
 0.176 
7.7
6.4
7.1
7.4
7.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
305.7
440.9
851.1
1,051.8 1,276.6 1,492.4 1,718.2
1,973.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.2
4.3
3.6
2.8
3.4
Coal
92.7
145.9
378.9
489.1
618.2
741.2
858.1
981.6
30.3
33.1
44.5
46.5
48.4
49.7
49.9
49.7
5.8
5.2
4.2
2.8
3.9
Oil
61.1
112.0
206.2
252.2
307.8
367.0
437.6
526.1
20.0
25.4
24.2
24.0
24.1
24.6
25.5
26.7
5.0
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.8
Natural gas
10.6
23.1
43.2
59.2
78.3
98.9
122.4
149.6
3.5
5.2
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.6
5.8
6.5
5.3
4.2
5.1
Nuclear
1.6
4.4
9.8
17.5
27.7
41.6
55.5
69.4
0.5
1.0
1.1
1.7
2.2
2.8
3.2
3.5
7.5
12.4
9.1
5.2
8.2
Hydro
6.2
6.4
11.9
16.9
20.5
24.1
27.7
31.3
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.7
7.3
3.6
2.6
4.0
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
133.6
149.1
201.2
216.9
224.0
219.7
217.0
215.1
43.7
33.8
23.6
20.6
17.6
14.7
12.6
10.9
1.7
1.5
0.1
-0.2
0.3
Biomass
133.5
148.8
195.5
202.6
197.6
180.4
159.5
136.7
43.7
33.7
23.0
19.3
15.5
12.1
9.3
6.9
1.5
0.7
-1.1
-2.7
-1.4
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.2
4.8
12.7
24.1
35.5
51.1
66.8
0.0
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.9
2.4
3.0
3.4
27.8
21.3
10.8
6.5
11.1
Biofuels
0.0
0.1
0.82
1.2
2.0
3.3
6.0
11.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.6
-
8.1
10.7
12.8
11.0
Electricity
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-10.2
121.5
0.0
0.0
17.2
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
292.7
569.7
1,383.0 1,892.4 2,449.9 3,022.7
3,619.7
4,262.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.4
6.5
4.8
3.5
4.6
Coal
191.6
390.2
1,041.5
1,352.3
1,679.3
2,012.1
2,326.3
2,674.4
65.5
68.5
75.3
71.5
68.5
66.6
64.3
62.7
7.0
5.4
4.1
2.9
3.8
Oil
13.3
29.2
23.0
22.6
18.9
11.7
1.1
0.0
4.5
5.1
1.7
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
2.2
-0.3
-6.3
-45.2
-23.5
Natural gas
10.0
56.0
68.1
87.9
108.6
129.5
148.9
171.1
3.4
9.8
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.3
4.1
4.0
8.0
5.3
3.9
2.8
3.8
Nuclear
6.1
16.9
37.4
67.1
106.5
159.7
212.9
266.2
2.1
3.0
2.7
3.5
4.3
5.3
5.9
6.2
7.5
12.4
9.1
5.2
8.2
Hydro
71.7
74.5
138.1
196.4
238.2
280.1
321.9
363.7
24.5
13.1
10.0
10.4
9.7
9.3
8.9
8.5
2.7
7.3
3.6
2.6
4.0
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
3.0
75.0
166.1
298.5
429.6
608.6
787.5
0.0
0.5
5.4
8.8
12.2
14.2
16.8
18.5
36.4
17.2
10.0
6.2
9.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
56.8
121.4
275.5
341.2
404.8
464.1
514.0
570.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.5
4.4
3.1
2.1
3.0
Coal
48.4
103.2
254.0
317.0
378.9
437.6
488.3
542.4
85.1
85.0
92.2
92.9
93.6
94.3
95.0
95.1
6.9
4.5
3.3
2.2
3.1
Oil
5.0
9.0
7.8
7.4
6.0
3.6
0.3
0.0
8.8
7.4
2.8
2.2
1.5
0.8
0.1
0.0
1.8
-1.1
-7.1
-45.6
-24.1
Natural gas
3.5
9.3
13.6
16.9
20.0
22.9
25.4
28.1
6.1
7.6
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.6
4.4
3.1
2.1
2.9
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
147.9
245.2
574.7
730.9
915.0
1,096.2 1,280.8 1,488.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.6
4.9
4.1
3.1
3.9
Coal
100.1
157.6
409.2
528.2
667.7
800.4
926.7
1,060.1
67.7
64.3
71.2
72.3
73.0
73.0
72.4
71.2
5.8
5.2
4.2
2.8
3.9
Oil
44.2
77.7
150.8
183.4
222.9
266.0
318.4
385.9
29.9
31.7
26.2
25.1
24.4
24.3
24.9
25.9
5.0
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
Natural gas
3.6
9.9
14.6
19.3
24.4
29.8
35.6
42.6
2.4
4.0
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
5.8
5.7
4.4
3.6
4.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.5
33.7
35.4
36.9
38.4
39.9
41.4
42.9
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
Coal
34.1
32.5
35.3
36.7
38.1
39.5
41.0
42.4
0.1
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
Oil
22.8
28.0
25.2
26.2
27.3
28.4
29.4
30.5
0.4
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
Natural gas
24.7
52.0
43.0
44.8
46.7
48.6
50.4
52.3
2.2
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.8
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
243.2
315.3
577.7
713.3
872.9
1,027.7 1,200.9 1,400.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.5
4.3
3.7
3.1
3.6
Industry
66.7
83.4
195.3
258.9
334.0
410.9
496.9
590.7
27.4
26.5
33.8
36.3
38.3
40.0
41.4
42.2
4.4
5.8
4.7
3.7
4.5
Transportation
20.8
31.9
86.0
108.4
134.4
164.5
204.5
257.4
8.6
10.1
14.9
15.2
15.4
16.0
17.0
18.4
5.8
4.7
4.3
4.6
4.5
Others
142.3
173.2
249.9
283.8
322.8
350.6
375.5
403.9
58.5
54.9
43.3
39.8
37.0
34.1
31.3
28.8
2.3
2.6
2.1
1.4
1.9
Non-energy
13.3
26.8
46.5
62.3
81.7
101.7
124.1
148.4
5.5
8.5
8.0
8.7
9.4
9.9
10.3
10.6
5.1
6.0
5.0
3.8
4.8
Total
243.2
315.3
577.7
713.3
872.9
1,027.7 1,200.9 1,400.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.5
4.3
3.7
3.1
3.6
Coal
38.6
34.5
108.2
150.0
209.9
267.7
327.7
390.3
15.9
10.9
18.7
21.0
24.0
26.0
27.3
27.9
4.2
6.7
6.0
3.8
5.3
Oil
50.2
94.4
174.4
217.8
271.4
329.3
398.7
482.1
20.6
29.9
30.2
30.5
31.1
32.0
33.2
34.4
5.1
4.6
4.2
3.9
4.2
Natural gas
5.6
9.7
28.9
41.5
57.0
74.4
95.1
119.0
2.3
3.1
5.0
5.8
6.5
7.2
7.9
8.5
6.8
7.5
6.0
4.8
5.8
Electricity
18.5
32.4
88.3
121.8
159.3
199.7
244.0
293.7
7.6
10.3
15.3
17.1
18.3
19.4
20.3
21.0
6.5
6.6
5.1
3.9
4.9
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
130.3
144.4
177.8
182.3
175.2
156.6
135.5
115.3
53.6
45.8
30.8
25.6
20.1
15.2
11.3
8.2
1.3
0.5
-1.5
-3.0
-1.7
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
India (APS)


362
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
310
453
988
1,300
1,740
2,328
3,101
4,052
4.7
5.6
6.0
5.7
5.8
Population (millions of people)
179
209
258
274
287
298
307
317
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.8
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 1.7 
 2.2 
 3.8 
 4.75 
 6.1 
 7.8 
 10.1 
 12.8 
3.2
4.4
5.1
5.0
4.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.6 
 0.7 
 0.9 
 1.23 
 1.43 
 1.61 
 1.86 
 2.12 
1.9
6.8
2.7
2.8
3.5
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 318 
 341 
 232 
 260 
 236 
 206 
 184 
 166 
-1.3
2.3
-2.3
-2.1
-1.3
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 258 
 265 
 165 
 194 
 176 
 153 
 133 
 118 
-1.8
3.3
-2.3
-2.6
-1.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 132 
 167 
 123 
 168 
 157 
 144 
 127 
 118 
-0.3
6.3
-1.5
-2.0
-0.2
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.4 
 0.5 
 0.5 
 0.65 
 0.67 
 0.70 
 0.69 
 0.71 
1.0
4.0
0.8
0.1
1.2
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
98.62
154.77
229.46
337.80
410.03
478.58
571.54
671.41
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
8.0
3.5
3.4
4.4
Coal
3.55
12.01
46.41
84.65
105.99
141.89
174.66
217.96
3.6
7.8
20.2
25.1
25.8
29.6
30.6
32.5
10.8
12.8
5.3
4.4
6.4
Oil
33.35
57.86
67.70
133.75
168.40
193.36
210.79
234.40
33.8
37.4
29.5
39.6
41.1
40.4
36.9
34.9
2.9
14.6
3.8
1.9
5.1
Natural gas
15.80
26.54
40.23
47.83
55.72
64.17
82.73
111.41
16.0
17.1
17.5
14.2
13.6
13.4
14.5
16.6
3.8
3.5
3.0
5.7
4.2
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.49
0.86
1.18
0.80
1.64
1.55
2.08
2.27
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
3.6
-7.5
6.8
3.9
2.6
Geothermal
1.93
8.37
17.28
9.46
14.81
13.66
30.18
32.97
2.0
5.4
7.5
2.8
3.6
2.9
5.3
4.9
9.2
-11.3
3.7
9.2
2.6
Others
43.50
49.12
56.66
61.31
63.46
63.95
71.10
72.40
44.1
31.7
24.7
18.2
15.5
13.4
12.4
10.8
1.1
1.6
0.4
1.2
1.0
Biomass
43.50
49.12
55.66
55.45
54.56
53.81
54.23
54.60
44.1
31.7
24.3
16.4
13.3
11.2
9.5
8.1
1.0
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
-0.1
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.00
0.03
0.05
0.05
0.19
0.20
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
67.8
4.8
14.5
19.3
Biofuels
-
-
0.99
5.75
8.86
10.09
16.68
17.59
0.0
0.0
0.4
1.7
2.2
2.1
2.9
2.6
-
42.0
5.8
5.7
12.2
Electricity
-
-
0.00
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
133.8
-100.0
-
-100.0
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.67
93.33
233.33
357.09
454.25
577.40
752.99 968.73
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.2
8.9
4.9
5.3
5.9
Coal
9.77
34.00
130.51
264.51
334.19
452.14
558.28
681.30
29.9
36.4
55.9
74.1
73.6
78.3
74.1
70.3
10.9
15.2
5.5
4.2
6.8
Oil
15.33
18.34
19.65
13.04
15.00
12.69
14.06
15.36
46.9
19.7
8.4
3.7
3.3
2.2
1.9
1.6
1.0
-7.9
-0.3
1.9
-1.0
Natural gas
0.73
26.09
58.89
64.07
76.46
85.71
134.19
220.00
2.2
28.0
25.2
17.9
16.8
14.8
17.8
22.7
19.2
1.7
3.0
9.9
5.4
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
5.71
10.02
13.74
9.29
19.09
17.99
24.17
26.41
17.5
10.7
5.9
2.6
4.2
3.1
3.2
2.7
3.6
-7.5
6.8
3.9
2.6
Geothermal
1.13
4.87
10.05
5.50
8.61
7.95
17.55
19.18
3.4
5.2
4.3
1.5
1.9
1.4
2.3
2.0
9.2
-11.3
3.7
9.2
2.6
Others
0.00
0.01
0.49
0.68
0.90
0.92
4.74
6.48
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.7
-
6.9
3.0
21.6
10.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
6.50
17.00
55.68
89.07
109.51
140.06
174.02
223.95
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.0
9.8
4.6
4.8
5.7
Coal
2.32
6.90
36.81
71.09
88.43
117.83
141.21
172.33
35.7
40.6
66.1
79.8
80.8
84.1
81.1
77.0
11.7
14.1
5.2
3.9
6.4
Oil
3.97
4.45
5.53
3.67
4.22
3.57
3.95
4.32
61.0
26.2
9.9
4.1
3.9
2.5
2.3
1.9
1.3
-7.9
-0.3
1.9
-1.0
Natural gas
0.21
5.65
13.35
14.31
16.86
18.66
28.85
47.30
3.2
33.2
24.0
16.1
15.4
13.3
16.6
21.1
18.1
1.4
2.7
9.7
5.2
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
40.9
75.8
122.0
218.0
273.1
335.8
394.8
476.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.5
12.3
4.4
3.6
5.6
Coal
8.4
15.1
49.4
90.1
112.8
151.0
185.8
231.9
20.5
19.9
40.5
41.3
41.3
45.0
47.1
48.7
7.4
12.8
5.3
4.4
6.4
Oil
27.2
46.1
23.9
28.5
32.9
37.4
48.0
64.7
66.6
60.9
19.6
13.1
12.0
11.1
12.2
13.6
-0.5
3.6
2.8
5.6
4.1
Natural gas
5.3
14.6
48.7
99.4
127.5
147.4
161.0
179.5
12.9
19.2
40.0
45.6
46.7
43.9
40.8
37.7
9.3
15.3
4.0
2.0
5.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
34.2
39.7
32.3
33.0
33.4
33.8
34.9
35.2
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.3
Coal
36.1
42.4
30.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
34.0
34.0
-0.7
1.0
0.3
0.3
0.4
Oil
33.2
35.4
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
30.1
39.7
37.9
38.5
39.0
39.5
40.0
40.0
0.9
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
79.817 120.322 162.772 252.265 306.720 357.205 412.712 476.771
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
9.2
3.5
2.9
4.4
Industry
18.09
30.65
41.55
59.09
72.52
91.63
117.66
150.60
22.7
25.5
25.5
23.4
23.6
25.7
28.5
31.6
3.4
7.3
4.5
5.1
5.3
Transportation
10.71
21.87
44.17
108.87
142.28
163.50
179.54
194.09
13.4
18.2
27.1
43.2
46.4
45.8
43.5
40.7
5.8
19.8
4.2
1.7
6.1
Others
43.66
58.01
69.86
75.88
81.44
88.85
98.67
110.80
54.7
48.2
42.9
30.1
26.6
24.9
23.9
23.2
1.9
1.7
1.6
2.2
1.9
Non-energy
7.35
9.80
7.19
8.43
10.48
13.23
16.84
21.28
9.2
8.1
4.4
3.3
3.4
3.7
4.1
4.5
-0.1
3.2
4.6
4.9
4.4
Total
79.82
120.32
162.77
252.27
306.72
357.21
412.71
476.77
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
9.2
3.5
2.9
4.4
Coal
2.13
4.65
9.60
13.56
17.56
24.06
33.45
45.63
2.7
3.9
5.9
5.4
5.7
6.7
8.1
9.6
6.2
7.1
5.9
6.6
6.4
Oil
27.24
49.01
56.19
119.97
153.99
179.60
196.64
219.88
34.1
40.7
34.5
47.6
50.2
50.3
47.6
46.1
2.9
16.4
4.1
2.0
5.6
Natural gas
6.02
11.55
24.24
31.31
37.20
44.41
53.34
64.13
7.5
9.6
14.9
12.4
12.1
12.4
12.9
13.5
5.7
5.2
3.6
3.7
4.0
Electricity
2.43
6.81
17.22
27.26
35.55
46.18
60.22
77.48
3.0
5.7
10.6
10.8
11.6
12.9
14.6
16.3
8.1
9.6
5.4
5.3
6.2
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
41.99
48.31
55.52
60.18
62.42
62.96
69.06
69.65
52.6
40.1
34.1
23.9
20.4
17.6
16.7
14.6
1.1
1.6
0.5
1.0
0.9
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Indonesia (BAU)


363
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
309.8
453.4
988.1
1,300
1,740
2,328
3,101
4,052
4.7
5.6
6.0
5.7
5.8
Population (millions of people)
178.6
208.9
258.2
273.6
287.0
298.1
307.5
317.1
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.8
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 1.7 
 2.2 
 3.8 
 4.75 
 6.1 
 7.8 
 10.1 
 12.8 
3.2
4.4
5.1
5.0
4.9
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.6 
 0.7 
 0.9 
 1.10 
 1.26 
 1.41 
 1.62 
 1.79 
1.9
4.4
2.5
2.4
2.8
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 318 
 341 
 232 
 232 
 208 
 181 
 161 
 140 
-1.3
0.0
-2.5
-2.5
-2.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 258 
 265 
 165 
 170 
 148 
 124 
 108 
 96 
-1.8
0.6
-3.1
-2.6
-2.1
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 132 
 167 
 123 
 124 
 108 
 93 
 80 
 75 
-0.3
0.1
-2.9
-2.1
-2.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.4 
 0.5 
 0.5 
 0.53 
 0.52 
 0.51 
 0.50 
 0.54 
1.0
0.1
-0.4
0.5
0.0
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
99
155
229
302
362
421
500
567
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.4
5.6
3.4
3.0
3.7
Coal
4
12
46.41
46.17
52.91
66.86
82.27
107.09
3.6
7.8
20.2
15.3
14.6
15.9
16.5
18.9
10.8
-0.1
3.8
4.8
3.4
Oil
33
58
67.70
116.15
137.96
150.54
164.04
183.88
33.8
37.4
29.5
38.5
38.1
35.7
32.8
32.4
2.9
11.4
2.6
2.0
4.1
Natural gas
16
27
40.23
46.00
51.48
56.95
69.30
93.70
16.0
17.1
17.5
15.2
14.2
13.5
13.9
16.5
3.8
2.7
2.2
5.1
3.4
Nuclear
0
0
0.00
0.00
2.44
2.46
4.42
4.92
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.9
-
-
-
7.2
-
Hydro
0
1
1.18
2.07
3.12
4.35
5.42
6.04
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
3.6
11.9
7.7
3.3
6.7
Geothermal
2
8
17.28
29.25
47.31
70.27
83.23
77.29
2.0
5.4
7.5
9.7
13.1
16.7
16.7
13.6
9.2
11.1
9.2
1.0
6.2
Others
43
49
56.66
62.23
66.56
69.79
90.90
94.36
44.1
31.7
24.7
20.6
18.4
16.6
18.2
16.6
1.1
1.9
1.2
3.1
2.1
Biomass
43
49
55.66
57.45
59.75
62.42
78.33
81.06
44.1
31.7
24.3
19.0
16.5
14.8
15.7
14.3
1.0
0.6
0.8
2.6
1.5
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.00
0.10
0.17
0.32
0.89
0.98
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
-
112.3
11.9
12.0
27.2
Biofuels
-
-
0.99
4.60
6.64
7.06
11.68
12.32
0.0
0.0
0.4
1.5
1.8
1.7
2.3
2.2
-
35.8
4.4
5.7
10.6
Electricity
-
-
0.00
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
133.8
-100.0
-
-100.0
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.67
93.33
233.33
310.96
384.26
472.61
616.11
792.47
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.2
5.9
4.3
5.3
5.0
Coal
9.77
34.00
130.51
152.90
178.48
226.65
270.64
344.12
29.9
36.4
55.9
49.2
46.4
48.0
43.9
43.4
10.9
3.2
4.0
4.3
4.0
Oil
15.33
18.34
19.65
25.44
26.41
24.69
22.18
24.71
46.9
19.7
8.4
8.2
6.9
5.2
3.6
3.1
1.0
5.3
-0.3
0.0
0.9
Natural gas
0.73
26.09
58.89
83.37
89.74
94.31
124.00
210.71
2.2
28.0
25.2
26.8
23.4
20.0
20.1
26.6
19.2
7.2
1.2
8.4
5.2
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.38
9.43
16.94
18.88
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.4
2.0
2.8
2.4
-
-
-
7.2
-
Hydro
5.71
10.02
13.74
24.06
36.29
50.52
63.03
70.24
17.5
10.7
5.9
7.7
9.4
10.7
10.2
8.9
3.6
11.9
7.7
3.3
6.7
Geothermal
1.13
4.87
10.05
17.01
27.51
40.87
48.41
44.95
3.4
5.2
4.3
5.5
7.2
8.6
7.9
5.7
9.2
11.1
9.2
1.0
6.2
Others
0.00
0.01
0.49
8.18
16.45
26.14
70.90
78.84
0.0
0.0
0.2
2.6
4.3
5.5
11.5
9.9
-
75.7
12.3
11.7
22.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
6.50
17.00
55.68
57.34
62.58
71.38
83.32
114.19
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.0
0.6
2.2
4.8
2.9
Coal
2.32
6.90
36.81
34.60
38.37
47.54
55.42
70.46
35.7
40.6
66.1
60.3
61.3
66.6
66.5
61.7
11.7
-1.2
3.2
4.0
2.6
Oil
3.97
4.45
5.53
7.16
7.43
6.94
6.24
6.95
61.0
26.2
9.9
12.5
11.9
9.7
7.5
6.1
1.3
5.3
-0.3
0.0
0.9
Natural gas
0.21
5.65
13.35
15.59
16.78
16.90
21.66
36.78
3.2
33.2
24.0
27.2
26.8
23.7
26.0
32.2
18.1
3.1
0.8
8.1
4.1
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
40.9
75.8
122.0
161.1
188.6
215.7
249.1
304.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.5
5.7
3.0
3.5
3.7
Coal
8.4
15.1
49.4
49.1
56.3
71.2
87.6
114.0
20.5
19.9
40.5
30.5
29.9
33.0
35.2
37.4
7.4
-0.1
3.8
4.8
3.4
Oil
27.2
46.1
23.9
27.1
29.9
32.4
39.0
53.0
66.6
60.9
19.6
16.8
15.8
15.0
15.7
17.4
-0.5
2.5
1.8
5.0
3.2
Natural gas
5.3
14.6
48.7
85.0
102.4
112.2
122.5
137.8
12.9
19.2
40.0
52.7
54.3
52.0
49.2
45.2
9.3
11.8
2.8
2.1
4.2
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
34.2
39.7
32.3
39.2
40.5
41.6
43.0
43.6
-0.2
4.0
0.6
0.5
1.2
Coal
36.1
42.4
30.5
38.0
40.0
41.0
42.0
42.0
-0.7
4.5
0.8
0.2
1.3
Oil
33.2
35.4
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
30.1
39.7
37.9
46.0
46.0
48.0
49.2
49.3
0.9
3.9
0.4
0.3
1.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
80
120
163
221
257
289
334
388
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
6.3
2.7
3.0
3.5
Industry
18
31
41.55
51.04
61.04
75.05
96.35
123.28
22.7
25.5
25.5
23.1
23.7
26.0
28.8
31.8
3.4
4.2
3.9
5.1
4.4
Transportation
11
22
44.17
88.36
108.89
117.93
130.24
141.79
13.4
18.2
27.1
40.0
42.3
40.8
38.9
36.6
5.8
14.9
2.9
1.9
4.8
Others
44
58
69.86
72.84
77.05
82.60
91.04
101.49
54.7
48.2
42.9
33.0
29.9
28.6
27.2
26.2
1.9
0.8
1.3
2.1
1.5
Non-energy
7
10
7.19
8.43
10.48
13.23
16.84
21.28
9.2
8.1
4.4
3.8
4.1
4.6
5.0
5.5
-0.1
3.2
4.6
4.9
4.4
Total
80
120
163
221
257
289
334
388
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.9
6.3
2.7
3.0
3.5
Coal
2.13
4.65
9.60
11.56
14.54
19.32
26.85
36.63
2.7
3.9
5.9
5.2
5.6
6.7
8.0
9.4
6.2
3.8
5.3
6.6
5.5
Oil
27.24
49.01
56.19
98.88
120.34
133.40
147.60
166.73
34.1
40.7
34.5
44.8
46.7
46.2
44.1
43.0
2.9
12.0
3.0
2.3
4.4
Natural gas
6.02
11.55
24.24
28.20
33.04
38.96
47.10
56.95
7.5
9.6
14.9
12.8
12.8
13.5
14.1
14.7
5.7
3.1
3.3
3.9
3.5
Electricity
2.43
6.81
17.22
23.87
30.22
38.08
49.65
63.86
3.0
5.7
10.6
10.8
11.7
13.2
14.8
16.5
8.1
6.7
4.8
5.3
5.4
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
41.99
48.31
55.52
58.16
59.32
59.04
63.27
63.68
52.6
40.1
34.1
26.4
23.0
20.4
18.9
16.4
1.1
0.9
0.1
0.8
0.5
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Indonesia (APS)


364
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
4,683
5,349
5,986
6,222
6,533
6,948
7,342
7,705
1.0
0.8
1.1
1.0
1.0
Population (millions of people)
124
127
127
125
123
121
118
114
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 37.91 
 42.17 
 47.15 
 49.58 
 53.0 
 57.6 
 62.5 
 67.4 
0.9
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.55 
 4.08 
 3.39 
 3.51 
 3.56 
 3.59 
 3.60 
 3.62 
-0.2
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 94 
 97 
 72 
 71 
 67 
 62 
 58 
 54 
-1.1
-0.3
-1.3
-1.5
-1.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 61 
 61 
 49 
 46 
 43 
 40 
 37 
 35 
-0.9
-1.0
-1.4
-1.5
-1.4
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 62 
 61 
 52 
 48 
 43 
 40 
 37 
 34 
-0.7
-1.5
-1.9
-1.6
-1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.67 
 0.63 
 0.73 
 0.68 
 0.64 
 0.64 
 0.65 
 0.64 
0.4
-1.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.5
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 58 
 72 
 77 
 77 
 77 
 76 
 74 
 72 
1.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.467 
 0.571 
 0.608 
 0.617 
 0.623 
 0.627 
 0.630 
 0.633 
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
438.6
517.9
429.8
440.5
439.6
432.9
423.7
414.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
-0.1
0.5
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
Coal
76.5
97.2
117.5
116.2
110.1
111.8
112.5
110.4
17.4
18.8
27.3
26.4
25.1
25.8
26.5
26.6
1.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
Oil
250.3
255.1
184.9
172.9
160.6
151.5
142.0
132.7
57.1
49.3
43.0
39.2
36.5
35.0
33.5
32.0
-1.2
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
Natural gas
44.2
65.7
100.0
98.8
95.4
98.4
100.4
99.9
10.1
12.7
23.3
22.4
21.7
22.7
23.7
24.1
3.3
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
Nuclear
52.7
83.9
2.5
25.2
42.9
37.9
32.7
32.7
12.0
16.2
0.6
5.7
9.8
8.8
7.7
7.9
-11.5
59.3
4.1
-1.5
10.9
Hydro
7.5
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.6
7.9
8.0
8.1
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.3
0.4
Geothermal
1.6
3.1
2.4
3.0
4.2
5.4
6.4
7.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.7
4.6
6.2
3.2
4.6
Others
5.9
5.7
15.3
17.1
18.7
20.1
21.7
23.1
1.3
1.1
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
5.1
5.6
3.9
2.3
1.6
1.4
1.7
Biomass
4.5
4.7
11.4
11.9
12.2
12.4
12.9
13.3
1.0
0.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.8
0.9
0.5
0.6
0.6
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
1.4
0.9
3.9
4.8
5.9
6.9
8.0
9.0
0.3
0.2
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
4.2
4.7
3.7
2.7
3.5
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-100.0
-
6.0
1.7
-
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
872.6
1,088.1 1,035.3 1,087.5
1,113.8
1,135.9
1,147.7
1,151.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.7
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.4
Coal
117.7
233.8
343.2
329.4
310.1
325.6
337.4
337.4
13.5
21.5
33.2
30.3
27.8
28.7
29.4
29.3
4.4
-0.8
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
Oil
283.7
179.3
102.5
84.9
67.6
58.7
48.4
36.5
32.5
16.5
9.9
7.8
6.1
5.2
4.2
3.2
-4.0
-3.7
-3.6
-4.6
-4.0
Natural gas
170.6
253.6
409.8
390.7
365.4
381.3
392.6
390.4
19.6
23.3
39.6
35.9
32.8
33.6
34.2
33.9
3.6
-1.0
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
Nuclear
202.3
322.0
9.4
96.9
164.8
145.4
125.5
125.5
23.2
29.6
0.9
8.9
14.8
12.8
10.9
10.9
-11.5
59.3
4.1
-1.5
10.9
Hydro
86.9
85.2
85.2
85.0
88.9
91.5
93.2
94.2
10.0
7.8
8.2
7.8
8.0
8.1
8.1
8.2
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.3
0.4
Geothermal
1.7
3.3
2.6
3.3
4.7
6.1
7.3
8.5
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1.6
4.9
6.4
3.3
4.9
Others
9.6
10.7
82.5
97.3
112.4
127.4
143.4
159.3
1.1
1.0
8.0
8.9
10.1
11.2
12.5
13.8
9.0
3.4
2.7
2.3
2.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
117.9
132.8
161.6
151.8
138.3
140.0
140.5
136.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.3
-1.2
-0.8
-0.3
-0.7
Coal
25.2
48.5
69.6
66.0
61.0
62.7
64.0
63.0
21.4
36.5
43.1
43.5
44.1
44.8
45.5
46.2
4.2
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.4
Oil
58.8
35.9
20.3
17.5
13.9
11.9
9.7
7.2
49.9
27.0
12.5
11.5
10.0
8.5
6.9
5.3
-4.2
-2.9
-3.8
-4.9
-4.1
Natural gas
33.9
48.5
71.8
68.3
63.4
65.4
66.9
66.1
28.7
36.5
44.4
45.0
45.9
46.7
47.6
48.5
3.0
-1.0
-0.4
0.1
-0.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
292.1
325.9
312.9
301.3
282.6
278.9
273.4
263.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.3
-0.8
-0.8
-0.6
-0.7
Coal
82.0
104.5
126.5
125.1
118.5
120.3
121.1
118.8
28.1
32.1
40.4
41.5
41.9
43.1
44.3
45.1
1.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.3
Oil
182.0
179.4
122.5
113.0
103.2
95.8
88.2
80.8
62.3
55.0
39.2
37.5
36.5
34.3
32.3
30.7
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.7
-1.7
Natural gas
28.1
42.0
63.9
63.1
60.9
62.8
64.1
63.8
9.6
12.9
20.4
21.0
21.6
22.5
23.5
24.2
3.3
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
41.7
43.2
45.5
45.6
46.2
47.0
47.6
48.2
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
Coal
40.2
41.5
42.4
42.9
43.7
44.7
45.4
46.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
Oil
41.5
42.9
43.5
41.7
42.0
42.4
43.0
43.7
0.2
-0.9
0.2
0.3
0.0
Natural gas
43.3
45.0
49.1
49.2
49.5
50.1
50.5
50.7
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
287.0
328.2
291.4
288.3
283.2
278.8
272.9
266.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
Industry
109.6
99.7
82.1
80.4
80.3
81.0
81.0
80.6
38.2
30.4
28.2
27.9
28.4
29.0
29.7
30.3
-1.1
-0.4
0.1
0.0
-0.1
Transportation
68.1
84.4
71.3
65.5
60.8
57.4
54.4
51.7
23.7
25.7
24.5
22.7
21.5
20.6
19.9
19.4
0.2
-1.7
-1.3
-1.0
-1.3
Others
75.7
102.7
98.8
103.9
104.0
102.6
100.0
96.8
26.4
31.3
33.9
36.0
36.7
36.8
36.6
36.4
1.1
1.0
-0.1
-0.6
-0.1
Non-energy
33.7
41.4
39.2
38.5
38.1
37.8
37.4
36.9
11.8
12.6
13.4
13.4
13.5
13.6
13.7
13.9
0.6
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
Total
287.0
328.2
291.4
288.3
283.2
278.8
272.9
266.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
Coal
30.5
24.4
23.6
22.9
22.6
22.4
21.9
21.3
10.6
7.4
8.1
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
-1.0
-0.6
-0.2
-0.5
-0.4
Oil
170.7
194.5
152.3
143.4
135.1
128.2
121.3
114.7
59.5
59.3
52.3
49.8
47.7
46.0
44.4
43.1
-0.5
-1.2
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
Natural gas
15.2
21.7
29.5
31.5
32.7
33.6
34.1
34.3
5.3
6.6
10.1
10.9
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.9
2.7
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.6
Electricity
66.3
83.3
81.6
85.8
87.9
89.7
90.7
91.0
23.1
25.4
28.0
29.7
31.0
32.2
33.2
34.2
0.8
1.0
0.4
0.2
0.4
Heat
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.8
0.3
-0.4
-1.0
-0.5
Others
4.1
3.8
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.3
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
-0.2
1.5
0.5
-0.1
0.4
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Japan (BAU)


365
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
4,683
5,349
5,986
6,222
6,533
6,948
7,342
7,705
1.0
0.8
1.1
1.0
1.0
Population (millions of people)
124
127
127
125
123
121
118
114
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 37.91 
 42.17 
 47.15 
 49.58 
 53.0 
 57.6 
 62.5 
 67.4 
0.9
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.55 
 4.08 
 3.39 
 3.49 
 3.50 
 3.50 
 3.49 
 3.45 
-0.2
0.6
0.0
-0.2
0.1
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 94 
 97 
 72 
 70 
 66 
 61 
 56 
 51 
-1.1
-0.4
-1.5
-1.7
-1.3
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 61 
 61 
 49 
 46 
 42 
 38 
 35 
 32 
-0.9
-1.2
-1.8
-1.7
-1.6
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 62 
 61 
 52 
 48 
 41 
 36 
 32 
 28 
-0.7
-1.9
-2.7
-2.4
-2.4
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.67 
 0.63 
 0.73 
 0.68 
 0.63 
 0.60 
 0.57 
 0.56 
0.4
-1.5
-1.2
-0.7
-1.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 58 
 72 
 77 
 77 
 77 
 76 
 74 
 72 
1.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.467 
 0.571 
 0.608 
 0.617 
 0.623 
 0.627 
 0.630 
 0.633 
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
438.6
517.9
429.8
438.1
431.7
422.5
409.8
394.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
-0.1
0.4
-0.4
-0.7
-0.3
Coal
76.5
97.2
117.5
115.3
108.0
104.2
95.7
90.2
17.4
18.8
27.3
26.3
25.0
24.7
23.4
22.9
1.7
-0.4
-1.0
-1.4
-1.1
Oil
250.3
255.1
184.9
170.5
154.4
140.6
128.4
118.2
57.1
49.3
43.0
38.9
35.8
33.3
31.3
30.0
-1.2
-1.6
-1.9
-1.7
-1.8
Natural gas
44.2
65.7
100.0
95.0
87.5
82.9
82.4
84.0
10.1
12.7
23.3
21.7
20.3
19.6
20.1
21.3
3.3
-1.0
-1.4
0.1
-0.7
Nuclear
52.7
83.9
2.5
28.9
49.1
58.4
62.1
55.9
12.0
16.2
0.6
6.6
11.4
13.8
15.2
14.2
-11.5
63.6
7.3
-0.4
13.3
Hydro
7.5
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.6
7.9
8.0
8.1
1.7
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.3
0.4
Geothermal
1.6
3.1
2.4
3.7
5.2
6.7
8.3
9.9
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.5
1.7
9.2
6.1
4.0
5.9
Others
5.9
5.7
15.3
17.5
19.8
21.9
24.9
27.8
1.3
1.1
3.5
4.0
4.6
5.2
6.1
7.1
3.9
2.7
2.3
2.4
2.4
Biomass
4.5
4.7
11.4
12.1
12.7
13.2
14.0
14.8
1.0
0.9
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.8
3.8
1.2
0.9
1.2
1.1
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
1.4
0.9
3.9
5.0
6.5
8.0
10.1
12.2
0.3
0.2
0.9
1.1
1.5
1.9
2.5
3.1
4.2
5.2
4.9
4.3
4.7
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
-100.0
-
6.0
1.7
-
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
872.6
1,088.1 1,035.3 1,079.5 1,095.9 1,109.1
1,112.9
1,109.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.7
0.8
0.3
0.0
0.3
Coal
117.7
233.8
343.2
326.2
302.5
293.5
262.7
246.5
13.5
21.5
33.2
30.2
27.6
26.5
23.6
22.2
4.4
-1.0
-1.1
-1.7
-1.3
Oil
283.7
179.3
102.5
82.2
62.8
49.1
37.1
27.9
32.5
16.5
9.9
7.6
5.7
4.4
3.3
2.5
-4.0
-4.3
-5.0
-5.5
-5.1
Natural gas
170.6
253.6
409.8
371.2
325.1
298.5
296.9
308.8
19.6
23.3
39.6
34.4
29.7
26.9
26.7
27.8
3.6
-2.0
-2.2
0.3
-1.1
Nuclear
202.3
322.0
9.4
110.7
188.3
224.1
238.2
214.6
23.2
29.6
0.9
10.3
17.2
20.2
21.4
19.4
-11.5
63.6
7.3
-0.4
13.3
Hydro
86.9
85.2
85.2
85.0
88.9
91.5
93.2
94.2
10.0
7.8
8.2
7.9
8.1
8.3
8.4
8.5
-0.1
0.0
0.7
0.3
0.4
Geothermal
1.7
3.3
2.6
4.1
5.9
7.6
9.5
11.4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.6
9.8
6.3
4.1
6.1
Others
9.6
10.7
82.5
100.1
122.4
144.7
175.2
205.7
1.1
1.0
8.0
9.3
11.2
13.0
15.7
18.5
9.0
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
117.9
132.8
161.6
146.9
128.3
116.9
106.9
102.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.3
-1.9
-2.3
-1.3
-1.8
Coal
25.2
48.5
69.6
65.3
59.2
56.1
49.4
45.5
21.4
36.5
43.1
44.4
46.2
48.0
46.2
44.3
4.2
-1.3
-1.5
-2.1
-1.7
Oil
58.8
35.9
20.3
16.9
12.8
9.9
7.4
5.4
49.9
27.0
12.5
11.5
10.0
8.5
6.9
5.3
-4.2
-3.5
-5.2
-5.8
-5.1
Natural gas
33.9
48.5
71.8
64.7
56.2
50.9
50.2
51.8
28.7
36.5
44.4
44.1
43.8
43.5
46.9
50.4
3.0
-2.1
-2.4
0.2
-1.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
292.1
325.9
312.9
295.9
270.1
251.7
232.3
219.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.3
-1.1
-1.6
-1.4
-1.4
Coal
82.0
104.5
126.5
124.1
116.3
112.1
102.9
97.0
28.1
32.1
40.4
41.9
43.0
44.5
44.3
44.3
1.7
-0.4
-1.0
-1.4
-1.1
Oil
182.0
179.4
122.5
111.1
97.9
86.7
76.8
68.7
62.3
55.0
39.2
37.5
36.3
34.4
33.1
31.3
-1.6
-1.9
-2.4
-2.3
-2.3
Natural gas
28.1
42.0
63.9
60.7
55.9
52.9
52.6
53.6
9.6
12.9
20.4
20.5
20.7
21.0
22.6
24.4
3.3
-1.0
-1.4
0.1
-0.7
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
41.7
43.2
45.5
45.6
46.3
47.1
48.0
48.8
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
Coal
40.2
41.5
42.4
43.0
43.9
45.0
45.8
46.6
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
Oil
41.5
42.9
43.5
41.8
42.2
42.7
43.4
44.2
0.2
-0.8
0.2
0.3
0.1
Natural gas
43.3
45.0
49.1
49.3
49.7
50.4
50.9
51.2
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
287.0
328.2
291.4
285.7
276.2
267.1
257.8
248.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.1
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
Industry
109.6
99.7
82.1
80.4
80.1
80.5
80.3
79.6
38.2
30.4
28.2
28.1
29.0
30.2
31.2
32.0
-1.1
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
Transportation
68.1
84.4
71.3
64.1
56.9
50.8
46.1
42.5
23.7
25.7
24.5
22.4
20.6
19.0
17.9
17.1
0.2
-2.1
-2.3
-1.8
-2.1
Others
75.7
102.7
98.8
102.7
101.1
97.9
94.0
89.7
26.4
31.3
33.9
36.0
36.6
36.7
36.4
36.1
1.1
0.8
-0.5
-0.9
-0.4
Non-energy
33.7
41.4
39.2
38.5
38.1
37.8
37.4
36.9
11.8
12.6
13.4
13.5
13.8
14.2
14.5
14.9
0.6
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
Total
287.0
328.2
291.4
285.7
276.2
267.1
257.8
248.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.1
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
Coal
30.5
24.4
23.6
22.9
22.5
22.3
21.7
21.0
10.6
7.4
8.1
8.0
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.4
-1.0
-0.6
-0.3
-0.6
-0.5
Oil
170.7
194.5
152.3
141.7
130.2
119.8
110.4
102.5
59.5
59.3
52.3
49.6
47.1
44.8
42.8
41.2
-0.5
-1.4
-1.7
-1.5
-1.6
Natural gas
15.2
21.7
29.5
31.3
32.1
32.7
32.9
32.8
5.3
6.6
10.1
11.0
11.6
12.2
12.8
13.2
2.7
1.2
0.4
0.0
0.4
Electricity
66.3
83.3
81.6
85.1
86.5
87.6
87.9
87.7
23.1
25.4
28.0
29.8
31.3
32.8
34.1
35.3
0.8
0.8
0.3
0.0
0.3
Heat
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.8
0.1
-0.7
-1.2
-0.7
Others
4.1
3.8
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.3
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
-0.2
1.5
0.4
-0.1
0.4
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Japan (APS)


366
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
377
710
1,267
1,460
1,683
1,898
2,101
2,272
5.0
2.9
2.7
1.8
2.4
Population (millions of people)
42.9
47.0
51.1
52.0
52.6
52.9
52.8
52.2
0.7
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.1
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 8.80 
 15.09 
 24.80 
 28.09 
 32.0 
 35.8 
 39.8 
 43.5 
4.2
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 2.17 
 4.00 
 5.34 
 5.53 
 5.66 
 5.74 
 5.82 
 5.81 
3.7
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 246 
 265 
 215 
 197 
 177 
 160 
 146 
 134 
-0.5
-1.8
-2.0
-1.8
-1.9
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 172 
 179 
 138 
 127 
 115 
 106 
 97 
 91 
-0.9
-1.7
-1.8
-1.5
-1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 173 
 166 
 125 
 113 
 101 
 90 
 85 
 80 
-1.3
-2.1
-2.2
-1.2
-1.8
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.70 
 0.63 
 0.58 
 0.57 
 0.57 
 0.57 
 0.58 
 0.60 
-0.7
-0.3
-0.2
0.6
0.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 3 
 12 
 21 
 24 
 26 
 28 
 29 
 29 
7.6
2.6
1.5
0.5
1.3
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.079 
 0.256 
 0.411 
 0.460 
 0.496 
 0.523 
 0.546 
 0.560 
6.8
2.3
1.3
0.7
1.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
92.9
188.2
272.7
287.2
297.6
303.8
307.2
303.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
1.0
0.6
0.0
0.4
Coal
25.4
41.9
80.8
83.9
86.3
85.6
90.3
92.3
27.3
22.3
29.6
29.2
29.0
28.2
29.4
30.4
4.7
0.8
0.2
0.8
0.5
Oil
49.7
99.0
102.7
105.0
108.3
110.0
110.5
109.1
53.5
52.6
37.7
36.6
36.4
36.2
36.0
35.9
2.9
0.4
0.5
-0.1
0.2
Natural gas
2.7
17.0
39.3
44.1
49.5
54.1
61.0
67.6
2.9
9.0
14.4
15.4
16.6
17.8
19.9
22.3
11.3
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.2
Nuclear
13.8
28.4
42.9
45.0
42.3
40.8
31.0
18.8
14.8
15.1
15.7
15.7
14.2
13.4
10.1
6.2
4.7
0.9
-1.0
-7.5
-3.3
Hydro
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-4.3
11.8
0.0
0.0
2.3
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-
2.2
1.8
1.1
1.6
Others
0.7
1.4
6.6
8.6
10.7
12.8
14.0
15.2
0.8
0.8
2.4
3.0
3.6
4.2
4.6
5.0
9.1
5.6
4.0
1.7
3.4
Biomass
0.7
1.3
5.0
5.4
5.7
5.9
6.0
5.9
0.8
0.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
8.1
1.8
0.8
0.1
0.7
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.0
0.6
2.1
3.8
5.7
6.8
8.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
1.3
1.9
2.2
2.6
18.1
26.9
10.5
3.4
10.6
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
17.1
3.0
0.9
0.2
1.1
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
105.4
288.5
549.2
595.4
641.6
682.9
719.0
743.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.8
1.6
1.4
0.9
1.2
Coal
17.7
111.4
236.6
241.1
255.4
261.8
287.0
308.6
16.8
38.6
43.1
40.5
39.8
38.3
39.9
41.5
10.9
0.4
0.8
1.7
1.1
Oil
18.9
34.6
12.5
11.2
10.2
8.5
7.2
5.2
17.9
12.0
2.3
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.7
-1.6
-2.2
-2.7
-4.9
-3.5
Natural gas
9.6
29.5
122.9
138.3
161.2
181.3
217.6
255.6
9.1
10.2
22.4
23.2
25.1
26.6
30.3
34.4
10.7
2.4
2.7
3.5
3.0
Nuclear
52.9
109.0
164.8
172.7
162.5
156.4
118.8
72.1
50.2
37.8
30.0
29.0
25.3
22.9
16.5
9.7
4.7
0.9
-1.0
-7.5
-3.3
Hydro
6.4
4.0
2.1
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
6.0
1.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
-4.3
11.8
0.0
0.0
2.3
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.1
10.4
28.4
48.5
71.1
84.6
98.1
0.0
0.0
1.9
4.8
7.6
10.4
11.8
13.2
44.7
22.3
9.6
3.3
9.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.5
40.4
79.6
81.4
86.7
88.9
98.7
106.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
0.4
0.9
1.8
1.2
Coal
6.0
27.1
56.4
57.3
59.4
58.9
63.4
65.9
47.7
66.9
70.8
70.4
68.5
66.2
64.3
61.9
9.4
0.3
0.3
1.1
0.6
Oil
4.5
7.6
4.1
2.6
2.3
2.0
1.6
1.2
36.0
18.9
5.2
3.2
2.7
2.2
1.7
1.1
-0.4
-8.7
-2.8
-5.0
-4.9
Natural gas
2.0
5.8
19.1
21.5
25.0
28.1
33.6
39.4
16.3
14.2
24.0
26.4
28.8
31.6
34.1
37.0
9.4
2.4
2.7
3.5
2.9
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
65.2
118.2
158.7
164.8
170.6
171.7
179.2
182.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.6
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.6
Coal
27.4
45.3
86.7
89.9
92.4
91.5
96.3
98.4
42.1
38.3
54.6
54.6
54.2
53.3
53.8
53.8
4.7
0.7
0.2
0.7
0.5
Oil
36.0
62.0
46.8
46.5
46.5
45.5
43.8
41.1
55.3
52.4
29.5
28.2
27.3
26.5
24.4
22.5
1.1
-0.1
-0.2
-1.0
-0.5
Natural gas
1.7
10.9
25.2
28.3
31.7
34.7
39.1
43.3
2.7
9.2
15.9
17.2
18.6
20.2
21.8
23.7
11.3
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.2
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
31.7
37.3
40.2
41.3
42.3
43.7
44.6
46.0
1.0
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
Coal
25.4
35.4
36.1
36.2
37.0
38.2
38.9
40.3
1.4
0.0
0.6
0.5
0.4
Oil
35.9
39.0
26.1
37.0
37.2
37.5
37.7
37.8
-1.3
7.2
0.1
0.1
1.5
Natural gas
40.6
44.0
55.3
55.4
55.5
55.6
55.7
55.8
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
64.9
127.1
174.2
184.8
193.7
200.3
204.6
205.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
1.2
0.8
0.3
0.7
Industry
19.3
38.5
49.1
52.3
54.7
56.2
57.1
57.1
29.7
30.3
28.2
28.3
28.2
28.1
27.9
27.8
3.8
1.2
0.7
0.2
0.6
Transportation
14.6
26.3
33.4
35.1
35.8
35.8
35.1
33.5
22.5
20.7
19.2
19.0
18.5
17.9
17.1
16.3
3.4
1.0
0.2
-0.7
0.0
Others
24.3
37.3
44.3
47.4
49.7
51.7
53.2
53.8
37.5
29.4
25.4
25.7
25.6
25.8
26.0
26.1
2.4
1.4
0.9
0.4
0.8
Non-energy
6.7
25.0
47.3
50.0
53.5
56.6
59.3
61.3
10.4
19.7
27.2
27.1
27.6
28.3
29.0
29.8
8.1
1.1
1.2
0.8
1.0
Total
64.9
127.1
174.2
184.8
193.7
200.3
204.6
205.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
1.2
0.8
0.3
0.7
Coal
11.7
9.1
11.8
12.4
12.4
12.2
11.9
11.4
18.1
7.1
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.1
5.8
5.6
0.0
1.0
-0.1
-0.6
-0.1
Oil
43.7
79.9
90.3
93.7
96.8
98.5
98.9
97.9
67.3
62.8
51.8
50.7
50.0
49.2
48.4
47.6
2.9
0.7
0.5
-0.1
0.3
Natural gas
0.7
10.9
20.5
22.9
24.7
26.3
27.6
28.4
1.0
8.6
11.8
12.4
12.8
13.1
13.5
13.8
14.6
2.3
1.4
0.8
1.3
Electricity
8.1
22.6
42.6
46.2
49.8
53.0
55.9
57.8
12.5
17.8
24.5
25.0
25.7
26.5
27.3
28.1
6.9
1.6
1.4
0.9
1.2
Heat
0.0
3.3
4.4
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.7
0.0
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
-
1.4
0.6
-0.5
0.3
Others
0.7
1.3
4.7
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.4
5.5
1.1
1.0
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
7.6
1.3
0.8
0.2
0.6
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Republic of Korea (BAU)


367
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
377
710
1,267
1,460
1,683
1,898
2,101
2,272
5.0
2.9
2.7
1.8
2.4
Population (millions of people)
42.9
47.0
51.1
52.0
52.6
52.9
52.8
52.2
0.7
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.1
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 8.80 
 15.09 
 24.80 
 28.09 
 32.0 
 35.8 
 39.8 
 43.5 
4.2
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 2.17 
 4.00 
 5.34 
 5.45 
 5.49 
 5.46 
 5.44 
 5.35 
3.7
0.4
0.0
-0.2
0.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 246 
 265 
 215 
 194 
 172 
 152 
 137 
 123 
-0.5
-2.0
-2.4
-2.1
-2.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 172 
 179 
 138 
 126 
 113 
 102 
 92 
 85 
-0.9
-1.8
-2.1
-1.8
-1.9
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 173 
 166 
 125 
 105 
 84 
 74 
 64 
 59 
-1.3
-3.6
-3.4
-2.3
-3.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.70 
 0.63 
 0.58 
 0.54 
 0.49 
 0.49 
 0.47 
 0.48 
-0.7
-1.5
-1.0
-0.2
-0.8
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 3 
 12 
 21 
 24 
 26 
 28 
 29 
 29 
7.6
2.6
1.5
0.5
1.3
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.079 
 0.256 
 0.411 
 0.460 
 0.496 
 0.523 
 0.546 
 0.560 
6.8
2.3
1.3
0.7
1.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
92.9
188.2
272.7
283.4
288.7
288.9
287.5
279.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
0.8
0.2
-0.3
0.1
Coal
25.4
41.9
80.8
74.4
65.9
65.0
61.0
61.8
27.3
22.3
29.6
26.2
22.8
22.5
21.2
22.1
4.7
-1.6
-1.3
-0.5
-1.1
Oil
49.7
99.0
102.7
104.9
106.0
106.1
104.7
102.2
53.5
52.6
37.7
37.0
36.7
36.7
36.4
36.6
2.9
0.4
0.1
-0.4
0.0
Natural gas
2.7
17.0
39.3
41.4
42.3
45.5
47.4
51.2
2.9
9.0
14.4
14.6
14.7
15.7
16.5
18.3
11.3
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.1
Nuclear
13.8
28.4
42.9
53.4
61.9
56.8
56.8
44.6
14.8
15.1
15.7
18.8
21.4
19.7
19.7
16.0
4.7
4.5
0.6
-2.4
0.2
Hydro
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-4.3
11.8
0.0
0.0
2.3
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-
2.0
1.6
1.0
1.4
Others
0.7
1.4
6.6
8.9
12.0
15.0
17.1
19.1
0.8
0.8
2.4
3.1
4.2
5.2
5.9
6.8
9.1
6.2
5.3
2.5
4.4
Biomass
0.7
1.3
5.0
5.4
5.7
5.9
5.9
5.9
0.8
0.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
8.1
1.8
0.8
0.0
0.7
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.0
0.6
2.3
4.8
7.4
9.4
11.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.8
1.6
2.6
3.3
4.1
18.1
28.7
12.7
4.5
12.3
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
17.1
4.4
3.4
0.4
2.4
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
105.4
288.5
549.2
585.8
619.1
647.1
670.1
681.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.8
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.9
Coal
17.7
111.4
236.6
214.1
190.0
193.4
186.6
198.8
16.8
38.6
43.1
36.5
30.7
29.9
27.8
29.2
10.9
-2.0
-1.0
0.3
-0.7
Oil
18.9
34.6
12.5
10.0
7.6
6.3
4.7
3.3
17.9
12.0
2.3
1.7
1.2
1.0
0.7
0.5
-1.6
-4.5
-4.5
-6.2
-5.2
Natural gas
9.6
29.5
122.9
122.8
120.0
134.0
141.5
164.7
9.1
10.2
22.4
21.0
19.4
20.7
21.1
24.2
10.7
0.0
0.9
2.1
1.2
Nuclear
52.9
109.0
164.8
204.9
237.6
217.8
217.8
171.1
50.2
37.8
30.0
35.0
38.4
33.7
32.5
25.1
4.7
4.5
0.6
-2.4
0.2
Hydro
6.4
4.0
2.1
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
6.0
1.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
-4.3
11.8
0.0
0.0
2.3
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.1
10.4
30.3
60.2
91.8
115.8
139.8
0.0
0.0
1.9
5.2
9.7
14.2
17.3
20.5
44.7
24.0
11.7
4.3
11.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.5
40.4
79.6
71.4
63.1
64.1
61.9
66.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
-2.2
-1.1
0.3
-0.7
Coal
6.0
27.1
56.4
49.4
42.5
42.0
39.4
40.8
47.7
66.9
70.8
69.2
67.5
65.6
63.6
61.6
9.4
-2.6
-1.6
-0.3
-1.3
Oil
4.5
7.6
4.1
3.0
2.1
1.7
1.1
0.8
36.0
18.9
5.2
4.2
3.4
2.6
1.9
1.2
-0.4
-6.0
-5.8
-7.4
-6.5
Natural gas
2.0
5.8
19.1
19.0
18.4
20.4
21.4
24.7
16.3
14.2
24.0
26.6
29.2
31.8
34.5
37.2
9.4
-0.2
0.7
1.9
1.0
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
65.2
118.2
158.7
152.6
142.1
140.6
134.1
133.5
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
3.6
-0.8
-0.8
-0.5
-0.7
Coal
27.4
45.3
86.7
79.6
70.3
69.2
64.7
65.4
42.1
38.3
54.6
52.2
49.5
49.2
48.3
49.0
4.7
-1.7
-1.4
-0.6
-1.1
Oil
36.0
62.0
46.8
46.5
44.6
42.2
38.9
35.2
55.3
52.4
29.5
30.4
31.4
30.0
29.0
26.4
1.1
-0.2
-1.0
-1.8
-1.1
Natural gas
1.7
10.9
25.2
26.6
27.1
29.2
30.4
32.8
2.7
9.2
15.9
17.4
19.1
20.7
22.7
24.6
11.3
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.1
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
31.7
37.3
40.2
41.8
43.3
44.8
46.2
47.6
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.7
Coal
25.4
35.4
36.1
37.3
38.4
39.6
40.7
41.9
1.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Oil
35.9
39.0
26.1
28.3
30.5
32.6
34.8
37.0
-1.3
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.4
Natural gas
40.6
44.0
55.3
55.7
56.1
56.5
57.0
57.4
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
64.9
127.1
174.2
183.3
189.6
193.1
194.3
192.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.4
Industry
19.3
38.5
49.1
51.8
53.5
54.3
54.3
53.2
29.7
30.3
28.2
28.3
28.2
28.1
27.9
27.6
3.8
1.1
0.5
-0.2
0.3
Transportation
14.6
26.3
33.4
34.7
34.6
33.5
31.4
28.9
22.5
20.7
19.2
18.9
18.3
17.3
16.2
15.0
3.4
0.8
-0.4
-1.4
-0.6
Others
24.3
37.3
44.3
46.7
47.9
48.8
49.4
49.2
37.5
29.4
25.4
25.5
25.3
25.2
25.4
25.6
2.4
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.4
Non-energy
6.7
25.0
47.3
50.0
53.5
56.6
59.3
61.3
10.4
19.7
27.2
27.3
28.2
29.3
30.5
31.8
8.1
1.1
1.2
0.8
1.0
Total
64.9
127.1
174.2
183.3
189.6
193.1
194.3
192.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.4
Coal
11.7
9.1
11.8
12.3
12.2
12.0
11.5
10.9
18.1
7.1
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.2
5.9
5.7
0.0
0.9
-0.3
-0.9
-0.3
Oil
43.7
79.9
90.3
93.2
94.9
95.2
94.2
92.0
67.3
62.8
51.8
50.8
50.1
49.3
48.5
47.7
2.9
0.6
0.2
-0.3
0.1
Natural gas
0.7
10.9
20.5
22.7
24.1
25.3
26.3
26.7
1.0
8.6
11.8
12.4
12.7
13.1
13.5
13.9
14.6
2.1
1.1
0.5
1.1
Electricity
8.1
22.6
42.6
45.4
48.0
50.2
52.1
53.0
12.5
17.8
24.5
24.8
25.3
26.0
26.8
27.5
6.9
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.9
Heat
0.0
3.3
4.4
4.6
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.4
0.0
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
-
1.2
0.3
-0.8
0.1
Others
0.7
1.3
4.7
5.0
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6
1.1
1.0
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
7.6
1.4
1.1
0.0
0.7
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Republic of Korea (APS)


368
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
1.1
2.0
5.1
7.2
10.0
13.3
17.6
23.1
6.3
7.1
6.4
5.7
6.2
Population (millions of people)
4.2
5.4
6.7
7.2
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.3
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.3
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.8 
 1.00 
 1.3 
 1.6 
 2.0 
 2.5 
4.4
5.5
5.0
4.4
4.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 1.4 
 1.87 
 2.37 
 2.26 
 2.17 
 3.97 
6.7
5.6
1.9
5.8
4.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,080 
 818 
 1,862 
 1,872 
 1,825 
 1,394 
 1,076 
 1,592 
2.2
0.1
-2.9
1.3
-0.6
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 984 
 743 
 1,791 
 1,581 
 1,492 
 1,145 
 888 
 1,279 
2.4
-2.5
-3.2
1.1
-1.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 180 
 148 
 1,636 
 1,890 
 1,933 
 1,459 
 1,111 
 1,771 
9.2
2.9
-2.6
2.0
0.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.2 
 0.2 
 0.9 
 1.01 
 1.06 
 1.05 
 1.03 
 1.11 
6.9
2.8
0.4
0.6
0.9
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.20
1.65
9.49
13.42
18.18
18.55
18.95
36.81
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.6
7.2
3.3
7.1
5.6
Coal
0.00
0.00
7.04
11.64
16.76
16.80
16.82
36.32
0.0
0.0
74.3
86.8
92.2
90.6
88.7
98.7
-
10.6
3.7
8.0
6.8
Oil
0.16
0.28
0.99
1.09
1.21
1.35
1.50
1.68
13.6
17.2
10.4
8.1
6.7
7.3
7.9
4.6
7.5
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.1
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.07
0.30
1.33
2.42
1.11
1.86
1.86
2.30
5.9
17.9
14.1
18.0
6.1
10.0
9.8
6.2
12.5
12.6
-2.6
2.1
2.2
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.97
1.07
0.12
-1.73
-0.91
-1.46
-1.22
-3.49
80.5
65.0
1.3
-12.9
-5.0
-7.9
-6.5
-9.5
-8.0
-270.3
-1.7
9.1
-214.4
Biomass
1.01
1.30
1.30
1.39
1.48
1.56
1.66
1.75
84.6
78.5
13.7
10.4
8.1
8.4
8.7
4.8
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
-0.05
-0.22
-1.18
-3.12
-2.38
-3.02
-2.88
-5.24
-4.1
-13.6
-12.5
-23.3
-13.1
-16.3
-15.2
-14.2
13.6
21.4
-0.3
5.7
6.1
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.82
3.44
17.76
41.12
33.63
42.32
42.32
71.86
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
13.1
18.3
0.3
5.4
5.7
Coal
0.00
0.00
2.26
13.02
20.71
20.71
20.71
45.17
0.0
0.0
12.7
31.7
61.6
48.9
48.9
62.9
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Oil
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.82
3.44
15.51
28.09
12.92
21.61
21.61
26.69
100.0
100.0
87.3
68.3
38.4
51.1
51.1
37.1
12.5
12.6
-2.6
2.1
2.2
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.00
0.00
0.56
3.20
5.09
5.09
5.09
11.10
-
-
100
100
100
100
100
100
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.56
3.20
5.09
5.09
5.09
11.10
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Oil
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.2
0.3
8.3
13.6
19.3
19.4
19.6
40.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
16.1
10.2
3.7
7.7
6.6
Coal
0.0
0.0
7.5
12.6
18.3
18.3
18.3
39.5
0.0
0.0
90.1
93.3
94.7
94.2
93.6
96.6
-
11.0
3.8
8.0
6.9
Oil
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.4
100.0
100.0
9.9
6.7
5.3
5.8
6.4
3.4
5.8
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.1
Natural gas
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
-
-
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Coal
-
-
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.09
1.50
9.12
11.34
14.87
15.24
15.64
29.58
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.9
4.4
3.0
6.9
4.8
Industry
0.04
0.06
6.70
8.66
11.90
11.95
11.97
25.47
3.6
4.2
73.5
76.4
80.0
78.4
76.5
86.1
22.9
5.3
3.3
7.9
5.5
Transportation
0.16
0.27
0.97
1.08
1.20
1.33
1.49
1.66
14.7
17.7
10.6
9.5
8.1
8.8
9.5
5.6
7.5
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
Others
0.89
1.17
1.44
1.59
1.77
1.96
2.18
2.44
81.7
78.1
15.8
14.1
11.9
12.8
13.9
8.2
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.1
Non-energy
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Total
1.09
1.50
9.12
11.34
14.87
15.24
15.64
29.58
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.9
4.4
3.0
6.9
4.8
Coal
0.00
0.00
6.49
8.44
11.67
11.71
11.73
25.22
0.0
0.0
71.1
74.5
78.5
76.9
75.0
85.3
-
5.4
3.3
8.0
5.6
Oil
0.16
0.27
0.99
1.09
1.21
1.35
1.50
1.68
14.9
18.1
10.8
9.6
8.2
8.9
9.6
5.7
7.5
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.1
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.01
0.06
0.34
0.41
0.50
0.61
0.75
0.93
1.3
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.4
4.0
4.8
3.1
13.6
3.7
4.0
4.2
4.1
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.92
1.17
1.30
1.39
1.48
1.56
1.66
1.75
83.8
78.2
14.3
12.3
9.9
10.3
10.6
5.9
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Lao People’s Democratic Republic (BAU)


369
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
1.1
2.0
5.1
7.2
10.0
13.3
17.6
23.1
6.3
7.1
6.4
5.7
6.2
Population (millions of people)
4.2
5.4
6.7
7.2
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.3
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.3
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.8 
 1.00 
 1.3 
 1.6 
 2.0 
 2.5 
4.4
5.5
5.0
4.4
4.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 1.4 
 1.73 
 2.20 
 2.11 
 2.04 
 3.72 
6.7
4.0
2.0
5.8
3.9
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,080 
 818 
 1,862 
 1,729 
 1,693 
 1,299 
 1,010 
 1,491 
2.2
-1.5
-2.8
1.4
-0.9
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 984 
 743 
 1,791 
 1,425 
 1,345 
 1,032 
 800 
 1,152 
2.4
-4.5
-3.2
1.1
-1.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 180 
 148 
 1,636 
 1,754 
 1,800 
 1,358 
 1,034 
 1,650 
9.2
1.4
-2.5
2.0
0.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.2 
 0.2 
 0.9 
 1.01 
 1.06 
 1.05 
 1.02 
 1.11 
6.9
2.9
0.3
0.6
0.9
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.20
1.65
9.49
12.40
16.86
17.29
17.79
34.47
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.6
5.5
3.4
7.1
5.3
Coal
0.00
0.00
7.04
10.80
15.60
15.63
15.64
33.80
0.0
0.0
74.3
87.1
92.5
90.4
87.9
98.1
-
8.9
3.8
8.0
6.5
Oil
0.16
0.28
0.99
0.99
1.10
1.23
1.37
1.53
13.6
17.2
10.4
8.0
6.5
7.1
7.7
4.4
7.5
0.0
2.2
2.2
1.8
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.07
0.30
1.33
2.47
1.11
1.86
1.86
2.30
5.9
17.9
14.1
19.9
6.6
10.7
10.4
6.7
12.5
13.1
-2.8
2.1
2.2
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.97
1.07
0.12
-1.86
-0.94
-1.43
-1.08
-3.15
80.5
65.0
1.3
-15.0
-5.6
-8.2
-6.1
-9.1
-8.0
-272.8
-2.6
8.3
-213.9
Biomass
1.01
1.30
1.30
1.26
1.34
1.42
1.50
1.58
84.6
78.5
13.7
10.1
7.9
8.2
8.4
4.6
1.0
-0.7
1.2
1.1
0.8
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
-0.05
-0.22
-1.18
-3.12
-2.28
-2.84
-2.58
-4.74
-4.1
-13.6
-12.5
-25.2
-13.5
-16.4
-14.5
-13.7
13.6
21.4
-0.9
5.2
5.7
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.82
3.44
17.76
41.77
33.63
42.32
42.32
71.86
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
13.1
18.6
0.1
5.4
5.7
Coal
0.00
0.00
2.26
13.02
20.71
20.71
20.71
45.17
0.0
0.0
12.7
31.2
61.6
48.9
48.9
62.9
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Oil
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.82
3.44
15.51
28.74
12.92
21.61
21.61
26.69
100.0
100.0
87.3
68.8
38.4
51.1
51.1
37.1
12.5
13.1
-2.8
2.1
2.2
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.00
0.00
0.56
3.20
5.09
5.09
5.09
11.10
-
-
100
100
100
100
100
100
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.56
3.20
5.09
5.09
5.09
11.10
0.0
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
-
42.0
4.7
8.1
12.7
Oil
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.2
0.3
8.3
12.6
17.9
18.1
18.2
38.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
16.1
8.6
3.7
7.8
6.3
Coal
0.0
0.0
7.5
11.8
17.0
17.1
17.1
36.9
0.0
0.0
90.1
93.5
94.9
94.4
93.7
96.7
-
9.4
3.8
8.0
6.6
Oil
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.3
100.0
100.0
9.9
6.5
5.1
5.6
6.3
3.3
5.8
0.0
2.2
2.2
1.8
Natural gas
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
-
-
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Coal
-
-
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.09
1.50
9.12
10.22
13.40
13.73
14.10
26.65
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.9
2.3
3.0
6.9
4.4
Industry
0.04
0.06
6.70
7.80
10.72
10.76
10.78
22.94
3.6
4.2
73.5
76.4
80.0
78.3
76.5
86.1
22.9
3.1
3.3
7.9
5.0
Transportation
0.16
0.27
0.97
0.98
1.09
1.21
1.35
1.51
14.7
17.7
10.6
9.5
8.1
8.8
9.6
5.7
7.5
0.1
2.2
2.2
1.8
Others
0.89
1.17
1.44
1.44
1.59
1.76
1.96
2.20
81.7
78.1
15.8
14.0
11.9
12.8
13.9
8.2
1.9
-0.1
2.1
2.2
1.7
Non-energy
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-0.1
0.9
0.9
0.7
Total
1.09
1.50
9.12
10.22
13.40
13.73
14.10
26.65
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8.9
2.3
3.0
6.9
4.4
Coal
0.00
0.00
6.49
7.60
10.51
10.54
10.55
22.70
0.0
0.0
71.1
74.4
78.4
76.8
74.9
85.2
-
3.2
3.3
8.0
5.1
Oil
0.16
0.27
0.99
0.99
1.10
1.23
1.37
1.53
14.9
18.1
10.8
9.7
8.2
8.9
9.7
5.7
7.5
0.0
2.2
2.2
1.8
Natural gas
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.01
0.06
0.34
0.37
0.45
0.55
0.67
0.83
1.3
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.4
4.0
4.8
3.1
13.6
1.6
4.0
4.2
3.6
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.92
1.17
1.30
1.26
1.34
1.42
1.50
1.58
83.8
78.2
14.3
12.3
10.0
10.3
10.6
5.9
1.4
-0.7
1.2
1.1
0.8
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Lao People’s Democratic Republic (APS)


370
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
81.8
162.5
330.0
403.1
487.1
582.9
679.0
774.9
5.7
4.1
3.8
2.9
3.5
Population (millions of people)
18.0
23.2
30.7
33.0
34.9
36.6
38.2
39.6
2.2
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 4.5 
 7.0 
 10.7 
 12.23 
 14.0 
 15.9 
 17.8 
 19.6 
3.5
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 1.1 
 2.0 
 2.3 
 2.70 
 3.07 
 3.49 
 3.92 
 4.37 
3.0
3.3
2.6
2.3
2.6
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 243 
 287 
 214 
 221 
 219 
 219 
 221 
 223 
-0.5
0.6
-0.1
0.2
0.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 153 
 173 
 150 
 159 
 160 
 160 
 161 
 161 
-0.1
1.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 166 
 189 
 157 
 148 
 148 
 147 
 146 
 150 
-0.2
-1.3
0.0
0.2
-0.2
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.7 
 0.7 
 0.7 
 0.67 
 0.67 
 0.67 
 0.66 
 0.67 
0.3
-1.9
0.0
0.0
-0.4
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
19.84
46.72
70.58
88.92
106.84
127.91
149.80
172.74
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.2
4.7
3.7
3.1
3.6
Coal
1.36
2.31
17.37
20.72
23.76
27.92
32.59
39.00
6.8
4.9
24.6
23.3
22.2
21.8
21.8
22.6
10.7
3.6
3.0
3.4
3.3
Oil
11.35
19.09
27.34
35.03
41.84
49.60
57.01
64.26
57.2
40.9
38.7
39.4
39.2
38.8
38.1
37.2
3.6
5.1
3.5
2.6
3.5
Natural gas
6.80
24.72
24.60
30.34
37.96
47.07
56.87
66.11
34.3
52.9
34.9
34.1
35.5
36.8
38.0
38.3
5.3
4.3
4.5
3.5
4.0
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.34
0.60
1.22
1.45
2.01
2.05
2.05
2.05
1.7
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.2
5.2
3.6
3.5
0.0
2.1
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
-0.01
0.00
0.05
1.38
1.26
1.27
1.30
1.32
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.5
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
-209.3
97.4
-0.8
0.4
14.4
Biomass
0.00
0.00
0.21
1.42
1.42
1.42
1.42
1.42
0.0
0.0
0.3
1.6
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.8
-
46.8
0.0
0.0
8.0
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
7.7
0.0
0.0
1.5
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.39
0.41
0.43
0.45
0.47
0.50
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
-
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Electricity
-0.01
0.00
-0.57
-0.48
-0.62
-0.63
-0.63
-0.63
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
20.9
-3.4
2.7
0.0
0.4
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
23.02
66.65
150.37
182.25
222.77
267.54
316.47
368.13
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.8
3.9
3.9
3.2
3.6
Coal
2.93
7.69
63.47
76.93
87.34
102.95
121.73
145.83
12.7
11.5
42.2
42.2
39.2
38.5
38.5
39.6
13.1
3.9
3.0
3.5
3.4
Oil
10.56
3.01
1.74
1.84
1.56
1.54
1.61
1.60
45.9
4.5
1.2
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
-7.0
1.1
-1.8
0.4
-0.3
Natural gas
5.54
48.99
69.96
81.04
104.92
133.74
163.83
191.40
24.1
73.5
46.5
44.5
47.1
50.0
51.8
52.0
10.7
3.0
5.1
3.6
4.1
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
3.99
6.97
14.17
16.92
23.43
23.81
23.79
23.79
17.3
10.5
9.4
9.3
10.5
8.9
7.5
6.5
5.2
3.6
3.5
0.0
2.1
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
1.02
5.51
5.51
5.51
5.51
5.51
0.0
0.0
0.7
3.0
2.5
2.1
1.7
1.5
-
40.0
0.0
0.0
7.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.16
13.86
31.09
35.39
42.07
50.85
60.79
71.98
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.4
2.6
3.7
3.5
3.4
Coal
0.81
1.50
15.59
18.44
21.00
24.67
28.86
34.78
15.7
10.8
50.2
52.1
49.9
48.5
47.5
48.3
12.5
3.4
3.0
3.5
3.3
Oil
2.99
0.78
0.45
0.48
0.41
0.40
0.42
0.42
57.9
5.7
1.5
1.4
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
-7.3
1.1
-1.8
0.4
-0.3
Natural gas
1.36
11.58
15.04
16.48
20.67
25.78
31.51
36.78
26.4
83.6
48.4
46.6
49.1
50.7
51.8
51.1
10.1
1.8
4.6
3.6
3.6
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
13.6
30.7
52.0
59.5
72.0
86.0
98.8
116.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.5
2.8
3.7
3.1
3.3
Coal
1.4
2.6
18.5
18.6
21.8
25.1
26.8
33.7
10.3
8.5
35.6
31.2
30.4
29.2
27.2
29.0
10.9
0.1
3.0
3.0
2.4
Oil
10.3
15.7
20.6
26.6
31.9
38.0
44.0
49.9
75.7
51.1
39.7
44.7
44.4
44.2
44.6
42.9
2.8
5.2
3.6
2.8
3.6
Natural gas
1.9
12.4
12.9
14.4
18.2
22.9
27.9
32.6
14.0
40.4
24.7
24.1
25.3
26.6
28.3
28.1
7.9
2.2
4.8
3.6
3.8
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
31.7
37.0
37.4
38.8
39.6
40.3
40.6
40.5
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.3
Coal
31.0
44.2
35.0
35.9
35.8
35.9
36.3
36.1
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
Oil
30.4
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
35.0
36.4
40.0
42.3
43.7
44.6
44.7
44.8
0.5
1.1
0.5
0.0
0.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.52
28.13
49.52
64.30
77.93
93.48
109.31
125.14
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
5.4
3.8
3.0
3.8
Industry
5.30
11.41
13.97
16.78
20.65
24.94
29.20
33.29
42.3
40.6
28.2
26.1
26.5
26.7
26.7
26.6
4.0
3.7
4.0
2.9
3.5
Transportation
4.76
10.50
21.10
27.34
33.10
39.73
46.38
53.03
38.0
37.3
42.6
42.5
42.5
42.5
42.4
42.4
6.1
5.3
3.8
2.9
3.8
Others
1.62
3.97
8.53
10.84
13.25
16.04
19.08
22.29
13.0
14.1
17.2
16.9
17.0
17.2
17.5
17.8
6.9
4.9
4.0
3.3
3.9
Non-energy
0.84
2.25
5.93
9.34
10.93
12.76
14.64
16.53
6.7
8.0
12.0
14.5
14.0
13.7
13.4
13.2
8.1
9.5
3.2
2.6
4.2
Total
12.52
28.13
49.52
64.30
77.93
93.48
109.31
125.14
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
5.4
3.8
3.0
3.8
Coal
0.51
0.99
1.78
2.28
2.76
3.25
3.73
4.22
4.1
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
5.1
5.1
3.6
2.7
3.5
Oil
9.19
18.01
26.39
33.74
40.36
47.87
55.26
62.52
73.5
64.0
53.3
52.5
51.8
51.2
50.6
50.0
4.3
5.0
3.6
2.7
3.5
Natural gas
1.09
3.86
9.56
13.86
17.29
21.29
25.36
29.33
8.7
13.7
19.3
21.6
22.2
22.8
23.2
23.4
9.1
7.7
4.4
3.3
4.6
Electricity
1.72
5.26
11.40
14.01
17.08
20.62
24.49
28.57
13.7
18.7
23.0
21.8
21.9
22.1
22.4
22.8
7.9
4.2
3.9
3.3
3.7
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.39
0.41
0.43
0.45
0.47
0.50
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
-
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Malaysia (BAU)


371
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
81.8
162.5
330.0
403.1
487.1
582.9
679.0
774.9
5.7
4.1
3.8
2.9
3.5
Population (millions of people)
18.0
23.2
30.7
33.0
34.9
36.6
38.2
39.6
2.2
1.4
1.1
0.8
1.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 4.5 
 7.0 
 10.7 
 12.23 
 14.0 
 15.9 
 17.8 
 19.6 
3.5
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 1.1 
 2.0 
 2.3 
 2.50 
 2.76 
 3.07 
 3.37 
 3.67 
3.0
1.7
2.1
1.8
1.9
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 243 
 287 
 214 
 204 
 197 
 193 
 189 
 187 
-0.5
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
-0.5
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 153 
 173 
 150 
 153 
 152 
 151 
 151 
 150 
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 166 
 189 
 157 
 132 
 127 
 123 
 118 
 117 
-0.2
-3.5
-0.7
-0.5
-1.2
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.7 
 0.7 
 0.7 
 0.64 
 0.64 
 0.64 
 0.62 
 0.62 
0.3
-2.6
-0.1
-0.2
-0.7
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
19.84
46.72
70.58
82.26
96.05
112.34
128.61
145.21
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.2
3.1
3.2
2.6
2.9
Coal
1.36
2.31
17.37
17.54
18.55
20.42
23.04
25.31
6.8
4.9
24.6
21.3
19.3
18.2
17.9
17.4
10.7
0.2
1.5
2.2
1.5
Oil
11.35
19.09
27.34
33.85
40.28
47.62
54.57
61.37
57.2
40.9
38.7
41.2
41.9
42.4
42.4
42.3
3.6
4.4
3.5
2.6
3.3
Natural gas
6.80
24.72
24.60
27.04
32.62
39.43
45.86
51.04
34.3
52.9
34.9
32.9
34.0
35.1
35.7
35.1
5.3
1.9
3.8
2.6
3.0
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.16
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.34
0.60
1.22
1.51
2.12
2.16
2.18
2.18
1.7
1.3
1.7
1.8
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.5
5.2
4.4
3.7
0.1
2.4
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
-0.01
0.00
0.05
2.32
2.48
2.71
2.95
3.16
0.0
0.0
0.1
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
-209.3
119.0
1.6
1.5
18.4
Biomass
0.00
0.00
0.21
1.60
1.61
1.63
1.68
1.68
0.0
0.0
0.3
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.2
-
50.3
0.2
0.2
8.7
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.20
0.36
0.39
0.40
0.40
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
-
54.0
6.9
0.2
12.1
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.39
1.07
1.25
1.45
1.65
1.85
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
-
22.5
3.1
2.5
6.5
Electricity
-0.01
0.00
-0.57
-0.55
-0.74
-0.77
-0.77
-0.78
0.0
0.0
-0.8
-0.7
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
20.9
-0.8
3.3
0.1
1.2
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
23.02
66.65
150.37
166.57 200.49 236.20 273.90
312.18
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.8
2.1
3.6
2.8
3.0
Coal
2.93
7.69
63.47
68.08
74.10
84.83
100.03
113.92
12.7
11.5
42.2
40.9
37.0
35.9
36.5
36.5
13.1
1.4
2.2
3.0
2.4
Oil
10.56
3.01
1.74
1.91
1.60
1.61
1.66
1.65
45.9
4.5
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
-7.0
1.9
-1.7
0.3
-0.2
Natural gas
5.54
48.99
69.96
70.89
90.18
114.12
136.18
152.28
24.1
73.5
46.5
42.6
45.0
48.3
49.7
48.8
10.7
0.3
4.9
2.9
3.2
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.28
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.7
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
3.99
6.97
14.17
17.58
24.61
25.17
25.32
25.32
17.3
10.5
9.4
10.6
12.3
10.7
9.2
8.1
5.2
4.4
3.7
0.1
2.4
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
1.02
8.12
10.00
10.48
10.71
10.73
0.0
0.0
0.7
4.9
5.0
4.4
3.9
3.4
-
51.3
2.6
0.2
9.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.16
13.86
31.09
29.66
32.64
37.31
42.40
46.00
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.4
-0.9
2.3
2.1
1.6
Coal
0.81
1.50
15.59
15.47
16.10
17.58
19.84
21.77
15.7
10.8
50.2
52.1
49.3
47.1
46.8
47.3
12.5
-0.2
1.3
2.2
1.3
Oil
2.99
0.78
0.45
0.50
0.42
0.42
0.43
0.43
57.9
5.7
1.5
1.7
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.9
-7.3
1.9
-1.7
0.3
-0.2
Natural gas
1.36
11.58
15.04
13.70
16.13
19.31
22.12
23.81
26.4
83.6
48.4
46.2
49.4
51.8
52.2
51.7
10.1
-1.8
3.5
2.1
1.9
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
13.6
30.7
52.0
53.0
61.8
71.6
80.1
90.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.5
0.4
3.0
2.4
2.2
Coal
1.4
2.6
18.5
15.2
16.4
17.2
17.2
19.8
10.3
8.5
35.6
28.6
26.5
24.1
21.4
21.9
10.9
-3.9
1.3
1.4
0.3
Oil
10.3
15.7
20.6
25.6
30.6
36.4
42.0
47.5
75.7
51.1
39.7
48.3
49.5
50.8
52.5
52.6
2.8
4.4
3.6
2.7
3.4
Natural gas
1.9
12.4
12.9
12.2
14.8
18.0
20.9
23.0
14.0
40.4
24.7
23.1
23.9
25.1
26.1
25.5
7.9
-1.0
3.9
2.5
2.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
31.7
37.0
37.4
40.8
43.7
46.2
48.3
50.1
0.7
1.8
1.2
0.8
1.2
Coal
31.0
44.2
35.0
37.9
39.6
41.5
43.4
45.0
0.5
1.6
0.9
0.8
1.0
Oil
30.4
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
33.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
35.0
36.4
40.0
44.5
48.1
50.8
52.9
55.0
0.5
2.1
1.3
0.8
1.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.52
28.13
49.52
61.72
74.20
88.29
102.39
116.25
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
4.5
3.6
2.8
3.5
Industry
5.30
11.41
13.97
15.22
18.38
21.78
25.02
27.96
42.3
40.6
28.2
24.7
24.8
24.7
24.4
24.1
4.0
1.7
3.7
2.5
2.8
Transportation
4.76
10.50
21.10
27.34
33.10
39.73
46.38
53.03
38.0
37.3
42.6
44.3
44.6
45.0
45.3
45.6
6.1
5.3
3.8
2.9
3.8
Others
1.62
3.97
8.53
9.83
11.80
14.01
16.35
18.73
13.0
14.1
17.2
15.9
15.9
15.9
16.0
16.1
6.9
2.9
3.6
2.9
3.2
Non-energy
0.84
2.25
5.93
9.34
10.93
12.76
14.64
16.53
6.7
8.0
12.0
15.1
14.7
14.5
14.3
14.2
8.1
9.5
3.2
2.6
4.2
Total
12.52
28.13
49.52
61.72
74.20
88.29
102.39
116.25
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
4.5
3.6
2.8
3.5
Coal
0.51
0.99
1.78
2.07
2.46
2.84
3.20
3.54
4.1
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
5.1
3.1
3.2
2.3
2.8
Oil
9.19
18.01
26.39
32.54
38.80
45.87
52.81
59.61
73.5
64.0
53.3
52.7
52.3
52.0
51.6
51.3
4.3
4.3
3.5
2.7
3.3
Natural gas
1.09
3.86
9.56
13.34
16.49
20.12
23.74
27.23
8.7
13.7
19.3
21.6
22.2
22.8
23.2
23.4
9.1
6.9
4.2
3.1
4.3
Electricity
1.72
5.26
11.40
12.70
15.21
18.01
20.99
24.02
13.7
18.7
23.0
20.6
20.5
20.4
20.5
20.7
7.9
2.2
3.6
2.9
3.0
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.00
0.39
1.07
1.25
1.45
1.65
1.85
0.0
0.0
0.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
-
22.5
3.1
2.5
6.5
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Malaysia (APS)


372
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
8
16
71
100
139
185
242
316
9.1
7.2
6.3
5.5
6.2
Population (millions of people)
41
46
52
55
57
59
61
63
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.7
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.2 
 0.3 
 1.3 
 1.83 
 2.4 
 3.1 
 4.0 
 5.1 
8.0
6.3
5.5
4.9
5.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.43 
 0.46 
 0.52 
 0.58 
 0.67 
1.5
2.4
2.0
2.5
2.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,333 
 803 
 281 
 234 
 189 
 167 
 148 
 132 
-6.0
-3.6
-3.3
-2.3
-3.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 1,173 
 718 
 251 
 206 
 170 
 145 
 127 
 112 
-6.0
-3.9
-3.4
-2.6
-3.2
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 140 
 150 
 93 
 89 
 75 
 81 
 76 
 74 
-1.6
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-0.9
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.1 
 0.2 
 0.3 
 0.38 
 0.40 
 0.49 
 0.52 
 0.56 
4.7
2.9
2.5
1.4
2.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
10.68
12.84
19.85
23.39
26.23
30.94
35.72
41.79
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.5
3.3
2.8
3.1
3.0
Coal
0.07
0.32
0.38
0.48
0.59
3.92
4.77
6.84
0.6
2.5
1.9
2.1
2.2
12.7
13.4
16.4
7.1
5.3
23.2
5.7
12.3
Oil
0.73
1.97
5.47
7.11
8.87
10.85
13.18
16.00
6.8
15.4
27.6
30.4
33.8
35.1
36.9
38.3
8.4
5.4
4.3
4.0
4.4
Natural gas
0.76
1.20
3.08
4.48
4.59
3.84
4.92
5.77
7.1
9.3
15.5
19.1
17.5
12.4
13.8
13.8
5.8
7.8
-1.5
4.2
2.5
Nuclear
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.10
0.16
0.81
0.90
1.38
1.15
1.41
1.58
1.0
1.3
4.1
3.9
5.3
3.7
4.0
3.8
8.6
2.2
2.5
3.2
2.7
Geothermal
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.02
9.19
10.11
10.41
10.80
11.18
11.43
11.60
84.5
71.5
50.9
44.5
41.2
36.1
32.0
27.8
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.6
Biomass
9.02
9.19
10.11
10.40
10.76
11.12
11.36
11.51
84.5
71.5
50.9
44.5
41.0
35.9
31.8
27.6
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.5
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.09
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
-
-
32.6
3.2
-
Biofuels
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.48
5.12
15.97
23.62
31.50
40.33
50.48
63.00
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
8.2
5.5
4.6
5.6
Coal
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.12
0.20
14.54
17.91
26.61
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.6
36.0
35.5
42.2
-100.0
-
61.6
6.2
-
Oil
0.27
0.69
0.06
0.10
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
10.9
13.5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.2
11.7
-100.0
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.97
2.54
6.51
12.59
13.69
9.30
12.30
13.74
39.3
49.5
40.8
53.3
43.5
23.1
24.4
21.8
7.9
14.1
-3.0
4.0
3.0
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
1.19
1.89
9.40
10.49
16.02
13.37
16.43
18.35
48.1
37.0
58.9
44.4
50.8
33.2
32.5
29.1
8.6
2.2
2.5
3.2
2.7
Geothermal
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
-
-
0.00
0.33
1.53
3.13
3.84
4.29
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.4
4.9
7.8
7.6
6.8
-
-
25.2
3.2
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.51
0.94
2.03
3.33
3.16
5.29
6.70
8.97
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
10.4
4.7
5.4
6.1
Coal
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.05
3.29
4.05
6.02
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.6
62.2
60.5
67.1
-100.0
-
60.3
6.2
-
Oil
0.06
0.19
0.01
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.5
20.6
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.8
11.7
-100.0
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.43
0.74
2.02
3.28
3.10
2.00
2.64
2.95
85.1
79.4
99.3
98.4
98.0
37.8
39.5
32.9
6.3
10.2
-4.8
4.0
1.5
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.1
2.4
6.6
8.9
10.4
15.1
18.5
23.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.3
6.3
5.4
4.5
5.2
Coal
0.1
0.3
0.4067
0.5255
0.6389
4.2362
5.1606
7.3975
8.9
12.5
6.2
5.9
6.1
28.1
28.0
31.6
5.8
5.3
23.2
5.7
12.3
Oil
0.6
1.4
4.3403
5.6188
6.9917
8.5462
10.371
12.588
50.0
58.3
66.0
63.0
67.0
56.7
56.2
53.9
8.5
5.3
4.3
3.9
4.4
Natural gas
0.5
0.7
1.8262
2.7749
2.812
2.28
2.9211
3.3896
41.1
29.2
27.8
31.1
26.9
15.1
15.8
14.5
5.7
8.7
-1.9
4.0
2.5
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
21.7
29.6
27.8
33.0
37.9
38.8
38.8
38.7
1.0
3.5
1.6
0.0
1.3
Coal
28.7
-
-
35.2
35.2
38.0
38.0
38.0
-
-
0.8
0.0
-
Oil
36.4
30.8
32.7
32.7
32.7
-
-
-
-0.4
0.0
-
-
-
Natural gas
19.3
29.3
27.7
33.0
38.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
1.5
3.5
1.9
0.0
1.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
9.400
11.477
17.734
20.557
23.574
26.922 30.740 35.290
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
Industry
0.39
1.15
2.17
3.05
3.86
4.76
5.79
7.01
4.2
10.0
12.3
14.8
16.4
17.7
18.8
19.9
7.1
7.0
4.6
3.9
4.8
Transportation
0.44
1.16
3.53
4.88
6.42
8.19
10.29
12.86
4.7
10.1
19.9
23.8
27.2
30.4
33.5
36.4
8.6
6.7
5.3
4.6
5.3
Others
8.47
9.08
11.76
12.33
12.92
13.50
14.09
14.71
90.1
79.1
66.3
60.0
54.8
50.2
45.8
41.7
1.3
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Non-energy
0.09
0.09
0.27
0.30
0.37
0.46
0.57
0.71
1.0
0.8
1.5
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.0
4.2
2.2
4.6
4.4
4.0
Total
9.40
11.48
17.73
20.56
23.57
26.92
30.74
35.29
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.8
Coal
0.05
0.32
0.38
0.46
0.54
0.63
0.72
0.82
0.5
2.8
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
8.3
4.0
3.3
2.7
3.2
Oil
0.59
1.53
5.43
7.02
8.76
10.74
13.05
15.85
6.2
13.3
30.6
34.2
37.2
39.9
42.4
44.9
9.3
5.3
4.3
4.0
4.4
Natural gas
0.23
0.32
0.71
0.92
1.21
1.57
1.99
2.51
2.4
2.8
4.0
4.5
5.1
5.8
6.5
7.1
4.7
5.4
5.5
4.8
5.2
Electricity
0.15
0.28
1.15
1.83
2.44
3.12
3.93
4.93
1.6
2.4
6.5
8.9
10.3
11.6
12.8
14.0
8.5
9.7
5.5
4.7
6.0
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
8.39
9.02
10.07
10.34
10.62
10.86
11.05
11.18
89.2
78.6
56.8
50.3
45.1
40.4
36.0
31.7
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.4
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Myanmar (BAU)


373
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
8.0
16.0
70.5
101.2
140.8
188.6
244.2
316.2
9.1
7.5
6.4
5.3
6.2
Population (millions of people)
40.6
46.1
52.4
57.1
60.1
63.0
66.0
66.0
1.0
1.7
1.0
0.5
0.9
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.2 
 0.3 
 1.3 
 1.77 
 2.3 
 3.0 
 3.7 
 4.8 
8.0
5.6
5.4
4.8
5.2
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.40 
 0.41 
 0.41 
 0.44 
 0.50 
1.5
1.0
0.2
2.1
1.1
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,333 
 803 
 281 
 225 
 173 
 136 
 120 
 105 
-6.0
-4.4
-4.9
-2.6
-3.9
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 1,173 
 718 
 251 
 197 
 156 
 127 
 111 
 98 
-6.0
-4.7
-4.3
-2.5
-3.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 140 
 150 
 93 
 84 
 66 
 53 
 50 
 46 
-1.6
-2.0
-4.6
-1.4
-2.8
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.1 
 0.2 
 0.3 
 0.37 
 0.38 
 0.39 
 0.41 
 0.44 
4.7
2.5
0.3
1.2
1.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
10.68
12.84
19.85
22.77
24.35
25.70
29.35
33.15
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.5
2.8
1.2
2.6
2.1
Coal
0.07
0.32
0.38
0.46
0.53
0.59
0.68
0.80
0.6
2.5
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
7.1
4.3
2.4
3.1
3.1
Oil
0.73
1.97
5.47
6.83
8.06
9.31
11.30
13.70
6.8
15.4
27.6
30.0
33.1
36.2
38.5
41.3
8.4
4.5
3.2
3.9
3.7
Natural gas
0.76
1.20
3.08
4.27
4.01
3.39
4.33
4.89
7.1
9.3
15.5
18.7
16.5
13.2
14.7
14.7
5.8
6.8
-2.3
3.7
1.9
Nuclear
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.10
0.16
0.81
0.95
1.30
1.47
1.80
2.23
1.0
1.3
4.1
4.2
5.3
5.7
6.1
6.7
8.6
3.3
4.5
4.2
4.1
Geothermal
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.02
9.19
10.11
10.26
10.45
10.94
11.24
11.53
84.5
71.5
50.9
45.0
42.9
42.6
38.3
34.8
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.5
Biomass
9.02
9.19
10.11
10.25
10.41
10.74
11.00
11.23
84.5
71.5
50.9
45.0
42.8
41.8
37.5
33.9
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.4
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.20
0.24
0.30
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.8
0.8
0.9
-
-
49.9
4.2
-
Biofuels
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
2.48
5.12
15.97
23.48
28.40
32.62
40.61
50.40
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.7
8.0
3.3
4.4
4.7
Coal
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.19
0.26
0.37
0.52
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
-100.0
-
8.6
7.3
-
Oil
0.27
0.69
0.06
0.09
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
10.9
13.5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.2
10.5
-100.0
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.97
2.54
6.51
11.93
11.60
8.57
11.24
13.93
39.3
49.5
40.8
50.8
40.8
26.3
27.7
27.6
7.9
12.9
-3.3
5.0
3.1
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
1.19
1.89
9.40
11.04
15.11
17.14
20.88
25.89
48.1
37.0
58.9
47.0
53.2
52.5
51.4
51.4
8.6
3.3
4.5
4.2
4.1
Geothermal
-
-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
-
-
0.00
0.31
1.45
6.66
8.11
10.05
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.3
5.1
20.4
20.0
19.9
-
-
35.8
4.2
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
0.51
0.94
2.03
3.16
2.68
1.81
2.37
2.50
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.7
9.2
-5.4
3.3
0.8
Coal
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.10
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.5
2.9
3.0
4.0
-100.0
-
6.7
6.5
-
Oil
0.06
0.19
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.5
20.6
0.7
0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.8
10.5
-100.0
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.43
0.74
2.02
3.11
2.62
1.75
2.30
2.40
85.1
79.4
99.3
98.4
98.0
97.1
97.0
96.0
6.3
9.0
-5.6
3.2
0.7
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.1
2.4
6.6
8.5
9.4
9.9
12.1
14.4
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
7.3
5.4
1.5
3.8
3.2
Coal
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.9
8.9
12.5
6.2
5.9
6.1
6.4
6.1
6.0
5.8
4.3
2.4
3.1
3.1
Oil
0.6
1.4
4.3
5.4
6.3
7.3
8.9
10.7
50.0
58.3
66.0
63.2
67.8
73.5
73.0
74.4
8.5
4.4
3.1
3.9
3.7
Natural gas
0.5
0.7
1.8
2.6
2.4
2.0
2.5
2.8
41.1
29.2
27.8
31.0
26.1
20.1
20.9
19.6
5.7
7.7
-2.8
3.5
1.8
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
21.7
29.6
27.8
33.0
38.0
42.0
42.1
49.8
1.0
3.5
2.4
1.7
2.4
Coal
28.7
-
-
35.2
42.0
42.0
45.0
45.0
-
-
1.8
0.7
-
Oil
36.4
30.8
32.7
32.7
32.7
-
-
-
-0.4
0.0
-
-
-
Natural gas
19.3
29.3
27.7
33.0
38.0
42.0
42.0
50.0
1.5
3.5
2.4
1.8
2.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
9.40
11.48
17.73
19.97
21.97
23.93
27.17
31.02
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
2.4
1.8
2.6
2.3
Industry
0.39
1.15
 2.17 
 2.92 
 3.49 
 4.03 
 4.88 
 5.89 
4.2
10.0
12.3
14.6
15.9
16.8
18.0
19.0
7.1
6.1
3.3
3.9
4.1
Transportation
0.44
1.16
 3.53 
 4.69 
 5.83 
 7.01 
 8.79 
 10.98 
4.7
10.1
19.9
23.5
26.5
29.3
32.3
35.4
8.6
5.8
4.1
4.6
4.6
Others
8.47
9.08
 11.76 
 12.07 
 12.28 
 12.43 
 12.92 
 13.44 
90.1
79.1
66.3
60.4
55.9
51.9
47.6
43.3
1.3
0.5
0.3
0.8
0.5
Non-energy
0.09
0.09
 0.27 
 0.30 
 0.37 
 0.46 
 0.57 
 0.71 
1.0
0.8
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
4.2
2.2
4.6
4.4
4.0
Total
9.40
11.48
17.73
19.97
21.97
23.93
27.17
31.02
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
2.4
1.8
2.6
2.3
Coal
0.05
0.32
0.38
0.44
0.49
0.53
0.61
0.70
0.5
2.8
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3
8.3
3.1
2.0
2.7
2.5
Oil
0.59
1.53
5.43
6.74
7.96
9.20
11.17
13.55
6.2
13.3
30.6
33.7
36.2
38.5
41.1
43.7
9.3
4.4
3.2
3.9
3.7
Natural gas
0.23
0.32
0.71
0.88
1.11
1.37
1.75
2.20
2.4
2.8
4.0
4.4
5.1
5.7
6.4
7.1
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.8
4.7
Electricity
0.15
0.28
1.15
1.72
2.12
2.50
3.14
3.94
1.6
2.4
6.5
8.6
9.7
10.4
11.6
12.7
8.5
8.4
3.8
4.7
5.0
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
8.39
9.02
10.07
10.19
10.28
10.32
10.50
10.62
89.2
78.6
56.8
51.0
46.8
43.1
38.7
34.2
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Myanmar (APS)


374
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
85
114
169
196
219
238
258
276
2.8
3.0
2.0
1.5
2.0
Population (millions of people)
3.3
3.9
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.3
5.5
1.3
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.7
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 25.42 
 29.60 
 36.80 
 40.76 
 43.7 
 45.9 
 48.2 
 50.4 
1.5
2.1
1.2
0.9
1.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.85 
 4.43 
 4.4881 
 4.53 
 4.59 
 4.63 
 4.55 
 4.4892 
0.6
0.2
0.2
-0.3
0.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 152 
 150 
 122 
 111 
 105 
 101 
 95 
 89 
-0.9
-1.9
-1.0
-1.2
-1.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 115 
 113 
 83 
 74 
 68 
 62 
 57 
 53 
-1.3
-2.2
-1.7
-1.6
-1.8
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 74 
 71 
 52 
 44 
 39 
 35 
 32 
 29 
-1.4
-3.3
-2.3
-1.9
-2.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.49 
 0.47 
 0.43 
 0.40 
 0.37 
 0.35 
 0.33 
 0.32 
-0.5
-1.5
-1.3
-0.7
-1.1
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 2 
 3 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 5 
2.9
1.6
0.9
0.6
0.9
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.538 
 0.672 
 0.799 
 0.827 
 0.836 
 0.838 
 0.840 
 0.842 
1.6
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.8
17.1
20.6
21.8
23.0
24.0
24.3
24.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.9
1.1
1.0
0.2
0.7
Coal
1.2
1.1
1.4
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
9.2
6.5
6.6
3.7
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
0.6
-10.3
-1.1
-0.9
-2.9
Oil
3.5
5.7
6.8
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.5
27.4
33.4
32.8
31.8
30.1
28.5
27.4
26.2
2.7
0.4
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2
Natural gas
3.9
5.1
4.1
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.4
30.2
29.6
19.8
21.2
19.9
18.3
18.1
17.8
0.2
2.5
-0.5
0.0
0.3
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
15.5
12.3
10.2
9.5
9.1
8.9
8.9
8.9
0.2
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
Geothermal
1.5
1.9
4.9
5.8
7.0
8.2
8.7
9.1
11.5
11.4
23.6
26.8
30.5
34.3
35.6
37.0
4.9
3.7
3.5
1.0
2.5
Others
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
6.2
6.9
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.4
2.3
1.6
1.1
0.6
1.0
Biomass
0.7
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
5.6
6.4
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.9
4.8
1.7
1.5
0.2
-0.2
0.3
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
7.2
1.2
3.9
2.3
2.7
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
2.6
4.7
2.1
2.0
2.6
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.3
39.2
44.2
48.0
51.1
53.5
55.7
57.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.3
1.7
1.1
0.8
1.1
Coal
0.7
1.5
1.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
3.9
4.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
-37.8
-100.0
-
-100.0
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-8.8
4.1
-0.9
0.6
0.7
Natural gas
5.7
9.6
6.9
10.5
10.6
9.8
10.2
10.4
17.7
24.4
15.5
21.9
20.8
18.3
18.4
18.0
0.7
8.9
-0.7
0.6
1.7
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
23.2
24.4
24.5
24.1
24.4
24.8
25.2
25.5
71.9
62.3
55.5
50.1
47.8
46.4
45.2
44.3
0.2
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
Geothermal
2.1
2.9
7.9
9.5
11.4
13.5
14.2
14.9
6.6
7.4
17.8
19.7
22.4
25.2
25.5
25.9
5.4
3.8
3.6
1.0
2.6
Others
0.6
0.8
3.1
3.8
4.6
5.4
6.1
6.8
1.8
2.0
6.9
7.9
9.0
10.1
10.9
11.7
7.0
4.3
3.6
2.3
3.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.4
2.3
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.7
1.7
-1.3
0.0
-0.2
Coal
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.9
16.7
27.1
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
-37.7
-100.0
-
-100.0
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-100.0
-
-1.9
-1.0
-
Natural gas
1.2
1.9
1.2
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
87.7
83.3
72.9
97.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
-0.1
7.8
-1.1
0.0
1.1
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
6.2
8.1
8.8
8.6
8.5
8.3
8.1
7.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
Coal
1.3
1.2
1.5
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
20.5
14.7
16.8
10.0
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.9
0.6
-10.3
-1.1
-0.9
-2.9
Oil
2.7
4.5
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.1
42.8
55.8
61.2
63.7
64.5
65.3
65.0
64.7
2.8
0.4
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2
Natural gas
2.3
2.4
1.9
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
36.7
29.4
21.9
26.3
26.2
25.4
26.0
26.5
-0.7
3.3
-0.7
-0.1
0.3
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
38.8
42.0
45.2
50.9
52.5
53.2
54.9
56.2
0.6
2.4
0.4
0.6
0.9
Coal
33.9
34.8
35.8
35.5
-
-
-
-
0.2
-0.1
-
-
-
Oil
14.1
-
-
25.5
26.9
28.2
30.8
33.0
-
-
1.0
1.6
-
Natural gas
39.6
43.4
48.7
51.3
52.5
53.2
54.9
56.2
0.8
1.0
0.4
0.6
0.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
9.7
12.9
14.1
14.6
14.8
14.9
14.8
14.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.7
0.2
-0.1
0.2
Industry
3.6
4.3
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
37.0
32.9
30.8
31.1
30.9
30.7
30.6
30.5
0.8
0.9
0.1
-0.2
0.1
Transportation
3.0
4.1
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.7
30.4
31.4
34.2
33.7
33.3
32.9
32.5
32.0
2.0
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.1
Others
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.1
26.2
23.0
24.9
25.5
26.1
26.7
27.2
27.7
1.3
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.6
Non-energy
0.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
6.4
12.7
10.0
9.8
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.8
3.4
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.0
Total
9.7
12.9
14.1
14.6
14.8
14.9
14.8
14.7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.7
0.2
-0.1
0.2
Coal
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
6.9
4.0
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.7
-0.4
0.7
-0.3
-1.1
-0.4
Oil
4.0
5.3
6.2
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.1
5.9
41.4
41.0
44.1
43.6
43.0
42.2
41.2
40.2
1.8
0.5
-0.1
-0.6
-0.2
Natural gas
1.8
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
18.5
23.3
19.1
18.3
17.9
17.7
17.7
17.7
1.6
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
Electricity
2.4
2.9
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.4
25.0
22.8
23.9
25.1
26.3
27.4
28.7
30.0
1.3
1.7
1.1
0.8
1.1
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.8
1.2
1.204
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.221
8.1
9.0
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.5
8.3
1.7
1.1
0.0
-0.4
0.1
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
New Zealand (BAU)


375
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
85
114
169
196
219
238
258
276
2.8
3.0
2.0
1.5
2.0
Population (millions of people)
3
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
1.3
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.7
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 25.42 
 29.60 
 36.80 
 40.76 
 43.7 
 45.9 
 48.2 
 50.4 
1.5
2.1
1.2
0.9
1.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.85 
 4.43 
 4.49 
 4.60 
 4.59 
 4.53 
 4.37 
 4.24 
0.6
0.5
-0.2
-0.6
-0.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 152 
 150 
 122 
 113 
 105 
 99 
 91 
 84 
-0.9
-1.5
-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 115 
 113 
 83 
 74 
 66 
 59 
 53 
 48 
-1.3
-2.4
-2.2
-2.1
-2.2
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 74 
 71 
 52 
 42 
 36 
 31 
 26 
 23 
-1.4
-4.1
-3.0
-3.1
-3.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.49 
 0.47 
 0.43 
 0.37 
 0.34 
 0.31 
 0.29 
 0.27 
-0.5
-2.7
-1.7
-1.6
-1.8
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 2 
 3 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 4 
 5 
2.9
1.6
0.9
0.6
0.9
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.538 
 0.672 
 0.799 
 0.827 
 0.836 
 0.838 
 0.840 
 0.842 
1.6
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
12.8
17.1
20.6
22.2
23.0
23.5
23.4
23.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.9
1.4
0.6
-0.1
0.5
Coal
1.2
1.1
1.4
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
9.2
6.5
6.6
3.5
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
0.6
-10.7
-1.1
-1.3
-3.2
Oil
3.5
5.7
6.8
6.8
6.6
6.2
5.7
5.2
27.4
33.4
32.8
30.8
28.8
26.5
24.5
22.4
2.7
0.2
-0.9
-1.8
-1.0
Natural gas
3.9
5.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.4
30.2
29.6
19.8
19.0
17.5
15.9
15.4
14.8
0.2
0.6
-1.1
-0.9
-0.7
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
15.5
12.3
10.2
9.3
9.1
9.1
9.3
9.4
0.2
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
Geothermal
1.5
1.9
4.9
6.7
7.8
8.9
9.3
9.8
11.5
11.4
23.6
30.1
33.8
37.7
40.0
42.3
4.9
6.5
2.9
1.1
2.9
Others
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
6.2
6.9
6.9
7.3
7.6
7.8
8.1
8.5
2.3
2.6
1.2
0.7
1.3
Biomass
0.7
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
5.6
6.4
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.7
1.7
1.4
0.0
-0.7
0.0
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.3
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.4
7.2
4.3
3.6
2.5
3.3
Biofuels
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
2.6
11.7
5.2
3.5
5.8
Electricity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
32.3
39.2
44.2
47.6
50.0
51.7
53.4
54.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.3
1.5
0.8
0.6
0.9
Coal
0.7
1.5
1.9
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
3.9
4.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
-40.9
-100.0
-
-100.0
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-8.8
-1.2
-2.6
-1.7
-2.0
Natural gas
5.7
9.6
6.9
8.1
7.6
6.3
6.0
5.3
17.7
24.4
15.5
17.1
15.3
12.3
11.2
9.7
0.7
3.5
-2.5
-1.7
-1.0
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
23.2
24.4
24.5
24.1
24.4
24.8
25.2
25.5
71.9
62.3
55.5
50.6
48.9
47.9
47.1
46.6
0.2
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
Geothermal
2.1
2.9
7.9
10.9
12.7
14.5
15.4
16.2
6.6
7.4
17.8
22.9
25.4
28.1
28.8
29.6
5.4
6.7
2.9
1.1
2.9
Others
0.6
0.8
3.1
4.3
5.2
6.1
6.9
7.7
1.8
2.0
6.9
9.1
10.4
11.8
12.9
14.0
7.0
7.2
3.4
2.4
3.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.4
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.7
-3.5
-3.1
-2.3
-2.9
Coal
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.9
16.7
27.1
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
-40.9
-100.0
-
-100.0
Oil
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-100.0
-
-3.7
-3.3
-
Natural gas
1.2
1.9
1.2
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
87.7
83.3
72.9
97.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
-0.1
2.3
-2.9
-2.3
-1.6
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
6.2
8.1
8.8
8.3
7.9
7.4
6.8
6.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.4
-1.2
-1.1
-1.7
-1.4
Coal
1.3
1.2
1.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
20.5
14.7
16.8
10.2
9.8
10.1
10.3
10.5
0.6
-10.7
-1.1
-1.3
-3.2
Oil
2.7
4.5
5.4
5.4
5.2
4.9
4.5
4.1
42.8
55.8
61.2
65.6
66.3
66.8
66.1
65.5
2.8
0.1
-0.9
-1.9
-1.1
Natural gas
2.3
2.4
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
36.7
29.4
21.9
24.3
23.9
23.1
23.6
24.0
-0.7
0.8
-1.6
-1.3
-1.0
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
38.8
42.0
45.2
51.1
52.9
53.7
55.6
57.2
0.6
2.5
0.5
0.6
0.9
Coal
33.9
34.8
35.8
35.7
-
-
-
-
0.2
-0.1
-
-
-
Oil
14.1
-
-
25.6
27.0
28.5
31.2
33.5
-
-
1.1
1.6
-
Natural gas
39.6
43.4
48.7
51.4
52.9
53.7
55.6
57.2
0.8
1.1
0.4
0.6
0.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
9.7
12.9
14.1
14.5
14.4
14.1
13.7
13.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.5
-0.2
-0.7
-0.3
Industry
3.6
4.3
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.1
37.0
32.9
30.8
31.2
31.2
31.3
31.5
31.5
0.8
0.7
-0.2
-0.6
-0.2
Transportation
3.0
4.1
4.8
4.9
4.7
4.5
4.2
3.9
30.4
31.4
34.2
33.6
32.8
31.8
30.5
29.3
2.0
0.2
-0.8
-1.5
-0.9
Others
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
26.2
23.0
24.9
25.4
26.0
26.7
27.5
28.3
1.3
0.9
0.3
-0.1
0.2
Non-energy
0.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
6.4
12.7
10.0
9.9
10.0
10.2
10.5
10.9
3.4
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.0
Total
9.7
12.9
14.1
14.5
14.4
14.1
13.7
13.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.5
0.5
-0.2
-0.7
-0.3
Coal
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
6.9
4.0
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.0
3.8
-0.4
0.5
-0.6
-1.5
-0.7
Oil
4.0
5.3
6.2
6.3
6.1
5.7
5.2
4.7
41.4
41.0
44.1
43.3
42.1
40.4
38.2
35.9
1.8
0.2
-0.9
-1.9
-1.1
Natural gas
1.8
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
18.5
23.3
19.1
18.4
18.1
18.1
18.4
18.7
1.6
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
Electricity
2.4
2.9
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.1
4.2
25.0
22.8
23.9
25.1
26.4
28.0
29.9
31.9
1.3
1.5
0.9
0.6
0.9
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
8.1
9.0
8.6
8.9
9.1
9.3
9.5
9.7
1.7
1.3
0.2
-0.3
0.2
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
New Zealand (APS)


376
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
94.5
125.3
266.1
368.0
504.1
674.6
881.7
1,146.9
4.2
6.7
6.2
5.4
6.0
Population (millions of people)
61.9
78.0
101.7
109.6
118.0
127.2
137.0
147.6
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 1.5 
 1.6 
 2.6 
 3.36 
 4.3 
 5.3 
 6.4 
 7.8 
2.2
5.1
4.7
3.9
4.5
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.4 
 0.5 
 0.5 
 0.54 
 0.63 
 0.68 
 0.73 
 0.78 
0.4
2.9
2.4
1.4
2.1
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 275 
 299 
 178 
 161 
 147 
 128 
 114 
 101 
-1.7
-2.1
-2.2
-2.4
-2.3
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 208 
 191 
 111 
 102 
 91 
 79 
 71 
 65 
-2.5
-1.7
-2.5
-2.0
-2.1
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 304 
 455 
 358 
 321 
 307 
 282 
 260 
 237 
0.7
-2.1
-1.3
-1.7
-1.6
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 1.1 
 1.5 
 2.0 
 2.00 
 2.09 
 2.20 
 2.28 
 2.35 
2.4
0.0
0.9
0.7
0.6
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
25.95
37.42
47.49
59.09
74.03
86.64
100.49
115.81
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
4.5
3.9
2.9
3.6
Coal
0.73
4.11
11.11
14.50
20.88
26.19
31.52
36.45
2.8
11.0
23.4
24.5
28.2
30.2
31.4
31.5
11.5
5.5
6.1
3.4
4.9
Oil
10.92
15.73
16.55
20.34
23.75
27.68
32.56
38.82
42.1
42.0
34.8
34.4
32.1
31.9
32.4
33.5
1.7
4.2
3.1
3.4
3.5
Natural gas
-
0.01
3.00
2.92
3.92
5.42
7.01
9.49
0.0
0.0
6.3
4.9
5.3
6.3
7.0
8.2
-
-0.6
6.4
5.8
4.7
Nuclear
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.52
0.67
0.75
0.99
1.35
1.40
1.47
1.52
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.4
5.8
3.6
0.8
2.9
Geothermal
4.70
10.00
9.50
11.85
14.69
16.14
17.38
18.36
18.1
26.7
20.0
20.1
19.8
18.6
17.3
15.9
2.9
4.5
3.1
1.3
2.7
Others
9.08
6.90
6.59
8.48
9.43
9.81
10.54
11.17
35.0
18.4
13.9
14.4
12.7
11.3
10.5
9.6
-1.3
5.2
1.5
1.3
2.1
Biomass
9.07
6.89
6.07
7.63
8.43
8.73
9.35
9.87
34.9
18.4
12.8
12.9
11.4
10.1
9.3
8.5
-1.6
4.7
1.4
1.2
2.0
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.08
0.30
0.40
0.42
0.45
0.47
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
-
31.9
3.3
1.1
7.5
Biofuels
0.01
0.01
0.45
0.55
0.60
0.66
0.74
0.84
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
15.8
4.2
1.8
2.5
2.5
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
25.84
45.25
82.41
98.50
134.65
161.47
187.57
215.33
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.7
3.6
5.1
2.9
3.9
Coal
1.93
16.66
36.69
44.71
65.02
80.03
94.15
105.0
7.5
36.8
44.5
45.4
48.3
49.6
50.2
48.7
12.5
4.0
6.0
2.7
4.3
Oil
12.38
9.14
5.86
5.04
6.17
6.34
6.46
7.4
47.9
20.2
7.1
5.1
4.6
3.9
3.4
3.4
-2.9
-3.0
2.3
1.5
0.9
Natural gas
-
0.02
18.88
18.09
24.14
32.99
42.01
55.8
0.0
0.0
22.9
18.4
17.9
20.4
22.4
25.9
-
-0.9
6.2
5.4
4.4
Nuclear
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
6.06
7.80
8.67
11.51
15.74
16.32
17.05
17.6
23.5
17.2
10.5
11.7
11.7
10.1
9.1
8.2
1.4
5.8
3.6
0.8
2.9
Geothermal
5.47
11.63
11.04
13.79
17.08
18.77
20.21
21.4
21.2
25.7
13.4
14.0
12.7
11.6
10.8
9.9
2.9
4.5
3.1
1.3
2.7
Others
0.00
0.00
1.28
5.36
6.49
7.02
7.67
8.2
0.0
0.0
1.6
5.4
4.8
4.3
4.1
3.8
-
33.2
2.7
1.6
7.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3.10
5.89
13.62
15.37
21.73
26.95
31.97
37.08
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.1
2.4
5.8
3.2
4.1
Coal
0.56
3.78
9.26
11.31
16.44
20.24
23.81
26.5
18.0
64.3
68.0
73.6
75.7
75.1
74.5
71.6
11.9
4.1
6.0
2.7
4.3
Oil
2.54
2.10
1.41
1.24
1.52
1.56
1.59
1.8
82.0
35.6
10.3
8.1
7.0
5.8
5.0
4.9
-2.3
-2.5
2.3
1.5
1.0
Natural gas
-
0.01
2.95
2.83
3.77
5.16
6.57
8.7
0.0
0.1
21.7
18.4
17.4
19.1
20.5
23.5
-
-0.9
6.2
5.4
4.4
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
28.7
57.0
95.1
118.1
154.7
190.3
229.0
271.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.9
4.4
4.9
3.6
4.3
Coal
4.4
18.0
45.9
57.6
82.9
104.0
125.1
144.6
15.3
31.5
48.3
48.8
53.6
54.6
54.6
53.2
9.8
4.6
6.1
3.4
4.7
Oil
24.3
39.0
42.2
53.6
62.5
73.6
87.5
104.8
84.7
68.4
44.3
45.4
40.4
38.7
38.2
38.6
2.2
4.9
3.2
3.6
3.7
Natural gas
-
0.0
7.0
6.8
9.2
12.7
16.5
22.3
0.0
0.0
7.4
5.8
6.0
6.7
7.2
8.2
-
-0.6
6.4
5.8
4.7
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
39.7
37.7
38.8
37.9
37.7
38.1
38.4
39.0
-0.1
-0.4
0.0
0.2
0.0
Coal
29.8
37.9
34.1
34.0
34.0
34.0
34.0
34.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
41.9
37.5
35.8
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-0.6
-0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.1
Natural gas
-
16.6
55.0
55.0
55.0
55.0
55.0
55.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
19.65
23.92
29.62
37.60
45.71
53.58
63.00
74.23
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.7
4.9
3.6
3.3
3.7
Industry
4.66
5.35
7.43
9.80
12.46
15.61
19.38
24.10
23.7
22.4
25.1
26.1
27.3
29.1
30.8
32.5
1.9
5.7
4.8
4.4
4.8
Transportation
4.52
8.10
10.61
12.68
14.33
16.53
19.37
22.95
23.0
33.9
35.8
33.7
31.4
30.9
30.7
30.9
3.5
3.6
2.7
3.3
3.1
Others
10.25
10.19
10.53
13.93
17.57
19.90
22.50
25.20
52.1
42.6
35.6
37.0
38.4
37.1
35.7
33.9
0.1
5.8
3.6
2.4
3.6
Non-energy
0.23
0.27
1.05
1.19
1.35
1.54
1.75
1.99
1.2
1.1
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
6.3
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
Total
19.65
23.92
29.62
37.60
45.71
53.58
63.00
74.23
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.7
4.9
3.6
3.3
3.7
Coal
0.61
0.77
2.29
3.20
4.44
5.95
7.71
9.9
3.1
3.2
7.7
8.5
9.7
11.1
12.2
13.3
5.4
6.9
6.4
5.2
6.0
Oil
7.92
13.01
15.01
19.01
22.12
26.00
30.85
36.9
40.3
54.4
50.7
50.5
48.4
48.5
49.0
49.7
2.6
4.8
3.2
3.6
3.7
Natural gas
-
0.00
0.05
0.09
0.15
0.26
0.44
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
1.0
-
11.8
11.4
11.5
11.5
Electricity
1.82
3.14
5.83
7.71
10.54
12.63
14.68
16.8
9.3
13.1
19.7
20.5
23.0
23.6
23.3
22.7
4.8
5.7
5.1
2.9
4.3
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.30
7.00
6.44
7.60
8.46
8.73
9.32
9.8
47.3
29.3
21.7
20.2
18.5
16.3
14.8
13.3
-1.5
3.4
1.4
1.2
1.7
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Philippines (BAU)


377
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
94.5
125.3
266.1
368.0
504.1
674.6
881.7
1,146.9
4.2
6.7
6.2
5.4
6.0
Population (millions of people)
61.9
78.0
101.7
109.6
118.0
127.2
137.0
147.6
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 1.5 
 1.6 
 2.6 
 3.36 
 4.3 
 5.3 
 6.4 
 7.8 
2.2
5.1
4.7
3.9
4.5
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.4 
 0.5 
 0.5 
 0.49 
 0.51 
 0.56 
 0.61 
 0.64 
0.4
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 275 
 299 
 178 
 147 
 119 
 105 
 95 
 83 
-1.7
-3.8
-3.3
-2.4
-3.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 208 
 191 
 111 
 95 
 75 
 67 
 61 
 56 
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
-1.8
-2.7
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 304 
 455 
 358 
 271 
 198 
 193 
 189 
 167 
0.7
-5.4
-3.3
-1.4
-3.0
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 1.1 
 1.5 
 2.0 
 1.84 
 1.66 
 1.83 
 1.99 
 2.01 
2.4
-1.7
-0.1
1.0
0.0
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
25.95
37.42
47.49
54.11
60.10
71.16
83.44
95.05
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
Coal
0.73
4.11
11.11
11.74
12.03
16.58
21.78
24.17
2.8
11.0
23.4
21.7
20.0
23.3
26.1
25.4
11.5
1.1
3.5
3.8
3.2
Oil
10.92
15.73
16.55
18.45
17.87
21.73
26.64
31.63
42.1
42.0
34.8
34.1
29.7
30.5
31.9
33.3
1.7
2.2
1.6
3.8
2.6
Natural gas
-
0.01
3.00
2.04
2.13
3.00
4.20
4.90
0.0
0.0
6.3
3.8
3.5
4.2
5.0
5.2
-
-7.4
3.9
5.0
2.0
Nuclear
-
-
-
0.00
0.42
1.12
1.49
3.76
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
1.6
1.8
4.0
-
-
106.4
12.8
-
Hydro
0.52
0.67
0.75
0.96
1.33
1.33
1.33
2.08
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.8
2.2
1.9
1.6
2.2
1.4
5.3
3.3
4.6
4.2
Geothermal
4.70
10.00
9.50
12.24
16.37
17.11
17.14
17.14
18.1
26.7
20.0
22.6
27.2
24.0
20.5
18.0
2.9
5.2
3.4
0.0
2.4
Others
9.08
6.90
6.59
8.67
9.95
10.28
10.87
11.38
35.0
18.4
13.9
16.0
16.6
14.5
13.0
12.0
-1.3
5.6
1.7
1.0
2.2
Biomass
9.07
6.89
6.07
7.45
8.27
8.48
8.97
9.39
34.9
18.4
12.8
13.8
13.8
11.9
10.8
9.9
-1.6
4.2
1.3
1.0
1.8
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
-
-
0.08
0.63
1.13
1.18
1.18
1.18
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.2
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.2
-
52.7
6.4
0.0
11.6
Biofuels
0.01
0.01
0.45
0.59
0.55
0.62
0.71
0.81
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
15.8
5.8
0.5
2.7
2.4
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
25.84
45.25
82.41
88.65
100.98
125.14
150.05
172.26
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.7
1.5
3.5
3.2
3.0
Coal
1.93
16.66
36.69
35.75
32.51
45.90
60.71
62.2
7.5
36.8
44.5
40.3
32.2
36.7
40.5
36.1
12.5
-0.5
2.5
3.1
2.1
Oil
12.38
9.14
5.86
4.64
3.47
4.63
6.13
6.6
47.9
20.2
7.1
5.2
3.4
3.7
4.1
3.8
-2.9
-4.6
0.0
3.6
0.5
Natural gas
-
0.02
18.88
13.64
13.93
19.29
26.46
29.3
0.0
0.0
22.9
15.4
13.8
15.4
17.6
17.0
-
-6.3
3.5
4.3
1.8
Nuclear
-
-
-
-
1.61
4.31
5.70
14.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.6
3.4
3.8
8.4
-
-
-
12.8
-
Hydro
6.06
7.80
8.67
11.22
15.45
15.45
15.45
24.2
23.5
17.2
10.5
12.7
15.3
12.3
10.3
14.0
1.4
5.3
3.3
4.6
4.2
Geothermal
5.47
11.63
11.04
14.24
19.04
19.90
19.93
19.9
21.2
25.7
13.4
16.1
18.9
15.9
13.3
11.6
2.9
5.2
3.4
0.0
2.4
Others
0.00
0.00
1.28
9.15
14.97
15.65
15.67
15.7
0.0
0.0
1.6
10.3
14.8
12.5
10.4
9.1
-
48.2
5.5
0.0
10.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3.10
5.89
13.62
11.63
10.42
14.51
19.33
20.02
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.1
-3.1
2.2
3.3
1.6
Coal
0.56
3.78
9.26
8.54
7.59
10.63
14.07
14.3
18.0
64.3
68.0
73.4
72.8
73.3
72.8
71.2
11.9
-1.6
2.2
3.0
1.7
Oil
2.54
2.10
1.41
1.14
0.85
1.14
1.51
1.6
82.0
35.6
10.3
9.8
8.2
7.8
7.8
8.1
-2.3
-4.1
0.0
3.6
0.6
Natural gas
-
0.01
2.95
1.96
1.98
2.74
3.75
4.1
0.0
0.1
21.7
16.8
19.0
18.9
19.4
20.7
-
-7.9
3.4
4.2
1.4
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
28.7
57.0
95.1
99.6
99.6
130.0
166.4
191.3
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.9
0.9
2.7
3.9
2.8
Coal
4.4
18.0
45.9
46.5
47.8
65.9
86.6
96.0
15.3
31.5
48.3
46.7
47.9
50.7
52.0
50.2
9.8
0.3
3.5
3.8
3.0
Oil
24.3
39.0
42.2
48.3
46.9
57.0
70.0
83.8
84.7
68.4
44.3
48.5
47.1
43.9
42.1
43.8
2.2
2.7
1.7
3.9
2.8
Natural gas
-
0.0
7.0
4.8
5.0
7.0
9.9
11.5
0.0
0.0
7.4
4.8
5.0
5.4
5.9
6.0
-
-7.4
3.9
5.0
2.0
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
39.7
37.7
38.8
39.9
41.2
41.4
41.5
42.1
-0.1
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.3
Coal
29.8
37.9
34.1
36.0
36.8
37.1
37.1
37.5
0.5
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.4
Oil
41.9
37.5
35.8
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.0
-0.6
-0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.1
Natural gas
-
16.6
55.0
60.0
60.5
60.6
60.6
60.8
-
1.8
0.1
0.0
0.4
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
19.65
23.92
29.62
35.08
37.82
45.18
54.20
63.83
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.7
3.4
2.6
3.5
3.1
Industry
4.66
5.35
7.43
9.34
11.04
14.05
17.71
22.05
23.7
22.4
25.1
26.6
29.2
31.1
32.7
34.5
1.9
4.7
4.2
4.6
4.4
Transportation
4.52
8.10
10.61
11.50
10.85
12.92
15.61
18.48
23.0
33.9
35.8
32.8
28.7
28.6
28.8
29.0
3.5
1.6
1.2
3.6
2.2
Others
10.25
10.19
10.53
13.05
14.58
16.66
19.14
21.31
52.1
42.6
35.6
37.2
38.6
36.9
35.3
33.4
0.1
4.4
2.5
2.5
2.9
Non-energy
0.23
0.27
1.05
1.19
1.35
1.54
1.75
1.99
1.2
1.1
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.1
6.3
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
Total
19.65
23.92
29.62
35.08
37.82
45.18
54.20
63.83
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.7
3.4
2.6
3.5
3.1
Coal
0.61
0.77
2.29
3.20
4.44
5.95
7.71
9.9
3.1
3.2
7.7
9.1
11.7
13.2
14.2
15.5
5.4
6.9
6.4
5.2
6.0
Oil
7.92
13.01
15.01
17.22
16.91
20.48
25.01
29.9
40.3
54.4
50.7
49.1
44.7
45.3
46.1
46.8
2.6
2.8
1.7
3.8
2.8
Natural gas
-
0.00
0.05
0.09
0.15
0.26
0.44
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
-
11.8
11.4
11.5
11.5
Electricity
1.82
3.14
5.83
6.94
7.90
9.79
11.74
13.5
9.3
13.1
19.7
19.8
20.9
21.7
21.7
21.1
4.8
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.4
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.30
7.00
6.44
7.65
8.42
8.70
9.30
9.8
47.3
29.3
21.7
21.8
22.3
19.3
17.2
15.4
-1.5
3.5
1.3
1.2
1.7
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Philippines (APS)


378
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
50.4
100.4
212.9
248.7
288.7
326.7
364.6
402.5
5.9
3.2
2.8
2.1
2.6
Population (millions of people)
3.0
4.0
5.5
5.8
6.1
6.3
6.4
6.6
2.4
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 16.55 
 24.92 
 38.58 
 42.8 
 47.6 
 52.1 
 56.6 
 60.9 
3.4
2.1
2.0
1.6
1.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.78 
 4.63 
 6.22 
 8.23 
 8.35 
 8.47 
 8.62 
 8.56 
2.0
5.8
0.3
0.1
1.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 229 
 186 
 161 
 192 
 175 
 163 
 152 
 141 
-1.4
3.6
-1.7
-1.4
-0.5
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 99 
 83 
 121 
 155 
 141 
 131 
 124 
 114 
0.8
5.2
-1.6
-1.4
-0.2
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 112 
 88 
 73 
 78 
 73 
 69 
 65 
 60 
-1.7
1.4
-1.2
-1.4
-0.8
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.49 
 0.47 
 0.45 
 0.41 
 0.42 
 0.42 
 0.43 
 0.43 
-0.3
-2.1
0.4
0.0
-0.2
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 0.84 
 0.85 
 0.86 
 0.87 
 0.88 
 0.89 
-
-
0.25
0.25
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 0.151 
 0.146 
 0.141 
 0.138 
 0.136 
 0.134 
-
-
-0.52
-0.28
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
11.53
18.67
34.31
47.76
50.60
53.11
55.55
56.61
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.5
6.8
1.1
0.6
2.0
Coal
0.02
0.00
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.36
0.2
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
10.6
1.5
1.3
0.8
1.1
Oil
11.44
17.35
23.81
35.33
36.41
37.42
38.57
39.18
99.2
92.9
69.4
74.0
72.0
70.5
69.4
69.2
3.0
8.2
0.6
0.5
2.0
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
9.84
11.65
13.26
14.63
15.78
16.12
0.0
6.0
28.7
24.4
26.2
27.5
28.4
28.5
-
3.4
2.3
1.0
2.0
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.07
0.20
0.39
0.49
0.61
0.73
0.85
0.95
0.6
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.7
7.1
4.9
4.0
2.7
3.7
Biomass
0.07
0.20
0.37
0.43
0.48
0.53
0.57
0.60
0.6
1.1
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
6.9
2.9
2.2
1.2
2.0
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.07
0.13
0.20
0.28
0.35
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
-
30.6
11.5
6.0
12.8
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
15.71
31.67
50.91
58.66
66.41
73.12
79.06
82.48
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.8
2.9
2.2
1.2
1.9
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.42
0.48
0.54
0.60
0.64
0.67
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
-
2.9
2.2
1.2
1.9
Oil
15.54
25.32
0.56
0.56
0.53
0.48
0.40
0.29
98.9
80.0
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
-12.4
-0.1
-1.6
-4.9
-2.6
Natural gas
0.00
5.86
48.29
55.19
61.97
67.66
72.46
75.06
0.0
18.5
94.8
94.1
93.3
92.5
91.7
91.0
-
2.7
2.1
1.0
1.8
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.17
0.49
1.64
2.44
3.37
4.38
5.56
6.46
1.1
1.5
3.2
4.2
5.1
6.0
7.0
7.8
9.5
8.2
6.0
4.0
5.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
4.42
7.72
8.60
9.70
10.76
11.61
12.28
12.70
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.7
2.5
1.8
0.9
1.6
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.16
0.19
0.20
0.22
0.23
0.0
0.0
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
-
2.9
2.2
1.2
1.9
Oil
4.42
6.60
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.08
0.06
100.0
85.5
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.5
-13.4
-0.3
-1.7
-4.9
-2.7
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
8.33
9.42
10.47
11.31
11.98
12.41
0.0
14.5
97.0
97.1
97.2
97.4
97.5
97.7
-
2.5
1.8
0.9
1.6
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.7
8.8
15.5
19.4
21.1
22.5
23.8
24.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.1
4.6
1.5
0.7
1.8
Coal
0.1
0.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-100.0
-
-
-
-
Oil
5.6
8.0
9.2
12.0
12.6
13.1
13.7
13.7
98.8
90.4
59.4
61.6
59.7
58.3
57.4
57.1
2.0
5.3
0.9
0.5
1.6
Natural gas
0.0
0.9
6.3
7.5
8.5
9.4
10.1
10.3
0.0
9.6
40.6
38.4
40.3
41.7
42.6
42.9
-
3.4
2.3
1.0
2.0
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
30.3
34.8
49.3
49.8
50.4
50.9
51.5
51.5
2.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
Coal
-
-
25.1
25.1
25.0
25.1
25.1
25.1
-
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
30.3
33.0
40.4
40.9
41.1
41.5
42.1
41.5
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
Natural gas
-
45.0
49.8
50.4
50.9
51.5
52.0
52.0
-
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.01
8.31
25.66
38.54
40.83
42.93
45.06
45.88
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.8
8.5
1.1
0.7
2.4
Industry
0.61
2.18
7.11
9.48
11.33
13.03
14.81
15.29
12.1
26.3
27.7
24.6
27.7
30.4
32.9
33.3
10.4
5.9
3.2
1.6
3.1
Transportation
1.36
1.75
2.99
3.09
3.25
3.44
3.66
3.89
27.1
21.1
11.6
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.1
8.5
3.2
0.7
1.1
1.2
1.1
Others
1.13
1.65
2.47
2.79
3.06
3.24
3.36
3.46
22.6
19.9
9.6
7.2
7.5
7.6
7.5
7.5
3.2
2.5
1.5
0.6
1.4
Non-energy
1.91
2.72
13.10
23.18
23.20
23.22
23.23
23.24
38.2
32.8
51.0
60.1
56.8
54.1
51.6
50.7
8.0
12.1
0.0
0.0
2.3
Total
5.01
8.31
25.66
38.54
40.83
42.93
45.06
45.88
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.8
8.5
1.1
0.7
2.4
Coal
0.02
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.4
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
7.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
3.81
5.86
19.84
31.37
32.45
33.48
34.64
35.27
76.1
70.5
77.3
81.4
79.5
78.0
76.9
76.9
6.8
9.6
0.7
0.5
2.3
Natural gas
0.06
0.11
1.51
2.23
2.80
3.32
3.80
3.71
1.2
1.3
5.9
5.8
6.8
7.7
8.4
8.1
13.6
8.1
4.1
1.1
3.7
Electricity
1.12
2.35
4.18
4.82
5.45
6.01
6.49
6.77
22.3
28.3
16.3
12.5
13.4
14.0
14.4
14.8
5.4
2.9
2.2
1.2
1.9
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Singapore (BAU)


379
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
50.4
100.4
212.9
248.7
288.7
326.7
364.6
402.5
5.9
3.2
2.8
2.1
2.6
Population (millions of people)
3.0
4.0
5.5
5.8
6.1
6.3
6.4
6.6
2.4
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.7
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 16.55 
 24.92 
 38.58 
 42.8 
 47.6 
 52.1 
 56.6 
 60.9 
3.4
2.1
2.0
1.6
1.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 3.78 
 4.63 
 6.18 
 8.10 
 8.12 
 8.13 
 8.19 
 8.12 
2.0
5.5
0.0
0.0
1.1
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 229 
 186 
 160 
 189 
 170 
 156 
 145 
 133 
-1.4
3.4
-1.9
-1.6
-0.7
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 99 
 83 
 120 
 154 
 140 
 130 
 121 
 112 
0.8
5.1
-1.7
-1.5
-0.3
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 112 
 88 
 72 
 76 
 70 
 65 
 60 
 55 
-1.7
1.0
-1.6
-1.6
-1.1
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.49 
 0.47 
 0.45 
 0.40 
 0.41 
 0.41 
 0.41 
 0.41 
-0.3
-2.3
0.3
0.0
-0.4
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
11.53
18.67
34.12
47.03
49.21
51.03
52.73
53.68
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.4
6.6
0.8
0.5
1.8
Coal
0.02
0.00
0.27
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.2
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
10.6
1.4
1.2
0.7
1.0
Oil
11.44
17.35
23.78
35.23
36.22
37.13
38.16
38.76
99.2
92.9
69.7
74.9
73.6
72.8
72.4
72.2
3.0
8.2
0.5
0.4
2.0
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
9.68
10.98
12.01
12.76
13.28
13.48
0.0
6.0
28.4
23.3
24.4
25.0
25.2
25.1
-
2.6
1.5
0.5
1.3
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.07
0.20
0.40
0.52
0.67
0.81
0.95
1.09
0.6
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
7.2
5.8
4.5
3.0
4.1
Biomass
0.07
0.20
0.37
0.42
0.47
0.50
0.53
0.55
0.6
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
6.9
2.6
1.8
0.9
1.6
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.10
0.20
0.31
0.42
0.54
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
-
30.9
11.4
5.9
12.7
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Electricity
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
15.71
31.67
50.73
57.90
64.89
70.70
75.54
78.95
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.8
2.7
2.0
1.1
1.8
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.41
0.47
0.53
0.58
0.62
0.64
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
-
2.7
2.0
1.1
1.8
Oil
15.54
25.32
0.51
0.50
0.48
0.43
0.36
0.28
98.9
80.0
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
-12.8
-0.1
-1.5
-4.3
-2.4
Natural gas
0.00
5.86
48.06
54.07
59.73
64.13
67.49
69.47
0.0
18.5
94.7
93.4
92.0
90.7
89.3
88.0
-
2.4
1.7
0.8
1.5
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.17
0.49
1.75
2.86
4.16
5.56
7.07
8.55
1.1
1.5
3.5
4.9
6.4
7.9
9.4
10.8
9.8
10.2
6.9
4.4
6.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
4.42
7.72
8.42
9.05
9.57
9.85
9.95
10.23
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.6
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.8
Coal
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.21
0.22
0.0
0.0
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
-
2.7
2.0
1.1
1.8
Oil
4.42
6.60
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.08
0.07
0.05
100.0
85.5
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.5
-13.8
-0.7
-2.0
-4.6
-2.8
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
8.17
8.79
9.29
9.57
9.67
9.96
0.0
14.5
97.0
97.1
97.1
97.1
97.2
97.3
-
1.5
0.9
0.4
0.8
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.7
8.8
15.4
18.9
20.2
21.1
21.9
22.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.1
4.2
1.1
0.5
1.5
Coal
0.1
0.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-100.0
-
-
-
-
Oil
5.6
8.0
9.2
11.9
12.5
12.9
13.4
13.5
98.8
90.4
59.7
62.8
61.8
61.2
61.1
60.9
2.0
5.2
0.8
0.4
1.5
Natural gas
0.0
0.9
6.2
7.0
7.7
8.2
8.5
8.6
0.0
9.6
40.3
37.2
38.2
38.8
38.9
39.1
-
2.6
1.5
0.5
1.3
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
30.3
34.8
50.0
52.3
54.6
56.9
59.2
59.2
2.0
0.9
0.8
0.4
0.7
Coal
-
-
25.1
25.1
25.1
25.1
25.1
25.1
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
30.3
33.0
40.6
41.7
42.8
43.9
45.0
45.0
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.4
Natural gas
-
45.0
50.6
52.9
55.3
57.6
60.0
60.0
-
0.9
0.9
0.4
0.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
5.01
8.31
25.62
38.36
40.46
42.33
44.18
45.00
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.7
8.4
1.0
0.6
2.3
Industry
0.61
2.18
7.08
9.33
11.02
12.54
14.09
14.57
12.1
26.3
27.6
24.3
27.2
29.6
31.9
32.4
10.3
5.7
3.0
1.5
2.9
Transportation
1.36
1.75
2.99
3.09
3.24
3.42
3.63
3.86
27.1
21.1
11.7
8.0
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.6
3.2
0.7
1.0
1.2
1.0
Others
1.13
1.65
2.46
2.76
3.00
3.15
3.23
3.33
22.6
19.9
9.6
7.2
7.4
7.5
7.3
7.4
3.2
2.3
1.4
0.5
1.2
Non-energy
1.91
2.72
13.09
23.18
23.20
23.22
23.23
23.24
38.2
32.8
51.1
60.4
57.3
54.8
52.6
51.7
8.0
12.1
0.0
0.0
2.3
Total
5.01
8.31
25.62
38.36
40.46
42.33
44.18
45.00
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
6.7
8.4
1.0
0.6
2.3
Coal
0.02
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.4
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
7.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil
3.81
5.86
19.82
31.28
32.28
33.20
34.24
34.86
76.1
70.5
77.4
81.6
79.8
78.4
77.5
77.5
6.8
9.6
0.6
0.5
2.3
Natural gas
0.06
0.11
1.50
2.19
2.72
3.19
3.61
3.52
1.2
1.3
5.9
5.7
6.7
7.5
8.2
7.8
13.6
7.8
3.8
1.0
3.5
Electricity
1.12
2.35
4.17
4.75
5.33
5.81
6.20
6.48
22.3
28.3
16.3
12.4
13.2
13.7
14.0
14.4
5.4
2.7
2.0
1.1
1.8
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
Singapore (APS)


380
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
141.6
217.7
393.7
471.6
570.2
687.8
828.8
998.7
4.2
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
Population (millions of people)
56.6
61.9
65.7
65.8
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.2
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 2.5 
 3.5 
 6.0 
 7.16 
 8.6 
 10.4 
 12.5 
 15.1 
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.8 
 1.2 
 2.1 
 2.30 
 2.60 
 2.91 
 3.28 
 3.79 
4.1
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.5
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 301 
 332 
 343 
 321 
 301 
 279 
 262 
 251 
0.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.0
-1.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 204 
 232 
 249 
 240 
 231 
 221 
 210 
 199 
0.8
-0.7
-0.8
-1.1
-0.9
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 928 
 777 
 560 
 515 
 483 
 446 
 418 
 411 
-2.0
-1.7
-1.4
-0.8
-1.2
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 3.1 
 2.3 
 1.6 
 1.60 
 1.60 
 1.60 
 1.60 
 1.64 
-2.5
-0.4
0.0
0.2
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
42.63
72.27
134.97
151.42
171.76
191.92
217.11
250.81
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.7
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.5
Coal
3.82
7.67
16.82
17.81
20.36
22.53
26.65
33.40
9.0
10.6
12.5
11.8
11.9
11.7
12.3
13.3
6.1
1.2
2.4
4.0
2.8
Oil
17.96
31.88
52.27
60.46
71.06
82.42
95.05
109.13
42.1
44.1
38.7
39.9
41.4
42.9
43.8
43.5
4.4
3.0
3.1
2.8
3.0
Natural gas
4.99
17.36
37.92
41.18
42.60
43.27
45.08
53.43
11.7
24.0
28.1
27.2
24.8
22.5
20.8
21.3
8.4
1.7
0.5
2.1
1.4
Nuclear
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.43
0.52
0.49
0.89
1.04
1.14
1.23
1.26
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
12.4
2.5
1.0
3.8
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
15.43
14.83
27.47
31.08
36.70
42.55
49.10
53.59
36.2
20.5
20.4
20.5
21.4
22.2
22.6
21.4
2.3
2.5
3.2
2.3
2.7
Biomass
14.69
14.59
23.27
25.79
29.70
32.97
36.60
40.39
34.4
20.2
17.2
17.0
17.3
17.2
16.9
16.1
1.9
2.1
2.5
2.0
2.2
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.31
1.05
1.90
2.31
2.66
2.80
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.1
-
27.3
8.2
1.9
9.1
Biofuels
1.53
1.59
1.74
1.94
2.18
2.50
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
-
0.8
2.0
2.6
2.0
Electricity
0.05
0.24
2.35
2.65
3.35
5.32
7.65
7.90
0.1
0.3
1.7
1.7
2.0
2.8
3.5
3.1
16.4
2.4
7.2
4.0
5.0
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
44.18
95.98
165.71
193.52
222.41
237.18
251.27
294.57
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.4
3.2
2.1
2.2
2.3
Coal
11.05
17.77
32.92
31.89
35.66
38.11
49.01
71.82
25.0
18.5
19.9
16.5
16.0
16.1
19.5
24.4
4.5
-0.6
1.8
6.5
3.2
Oil
10.38
10.03
1.68
0.21
0.62
0.62
1.80
3.04
23.5
10.4
1.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.7
1.0
-7.0
-34.3
11.6
17.3
2.4
Natural gas
17.77
61.64
117.01
134.33
145.38
150.58
145.81
160.96
40.2
64.2
70.6
69.4
65.4
63.5
58.0
54.6
7.8
2.8
1.1
0.7
1.3
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
4.98
6.03
5.75
10.30
12.05
13.24
14.29
14.61
11.3
6.3
3.5
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.7
5.0
0.6
12.4
2.5
1.0
3.8
Geothermal
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.51
8.36
16.80
28.71
34.63
40.35
44.13
0.0
0.5
5.0
8.7
12.9
14.6
16.1
15.0
-
15.0
7.5
2.5
6.9
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
8.92
19.24
29.71
32.12
34.98
36.33
38.11
46.10
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.9
1.6
1.2
2.4
1.8
Coal
2.55
4.16
8.35
7.98
8.76
9.18
11.55
16.56
28.6
21.6
28.1
24.8
25.1
25.3
30.3
35.9
4.9
-0.9
1.4
6.1
2.8
Oil
2.55
2.34
0.37
0.05
0.14
0.14
0.40
0.67
28.6
12.2
1.2
0.1
0.4
0.4
1.0
1.5
-7.4
-34.3
11.6
17.3
2.4
Natural gas
3.82
12.73
20.99
24.10
26.08
27.01
26.16
28.87
42.9
66.2
70.6
75.0
74.6
74.3
68.6
62.6
7.0
2.8
1.1
0.7
1.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
131.5
169.2
220.6
242.7
275.2
307.0
346.6
410.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.1
1.9
2.4
2.9
2.5
Coal
37.5
46.1
64.4
69.5
79.5
87.9
104.0
130.3
28.5
27.3
29.2
28.6
28.9
28.6
30.0
31.8
2.2
1.5
2.4
4.0
2.9
Oil
44.6
71.5
94.1
101.8
116.0
132.7
153.3
178.3
34.0
42.2
42.7
41.9
42.1
43.2
44.2
43.5
3.0
1.6
2.7
3.0
2.6
Natural gas
49.3
51.6
62.0
71.4
79.8
86.3
89.3
101.5
37.5
30.5
28.1
29.4
29.0
28.1
25.8
24.7
0.9
2.8
1.9
1.6
2.0
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
37.8
40.0
43.9
44.6
44.7
44.8
44.4
44.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
-0.2
0.0
Coal
37.3
36.7
33.9
34.4
35.0
35.7
36.5
37.3
-0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
Oil
35.0
36.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
38.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Natural gas
40.0
41.6
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
28.87
50.57
98.04
113.33
132.00
152.16
174.02
198.30
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.9
Industry
8.65
16.72
30.61
35.79
42.45
49.90
58.17
67.56
30.0
33.1
31.2
31.6
32.2
32.8
33.4
34.1
5.2
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.2
Transportation
9.01
14.61
23.72
25.88
29.42
33.71
38.78
44.92
31.2
28.9
24.2
22.8
22.3
22.2
22.3
22.7
3.9
1.8
2.7
2.9
2.6
Others
10.78
13.62
21.10
23.42
25.96
28.55
31.25
34.20
37.3
26.9
21.5
20.7
19.7
18.8
18.0
17.2
2.7
2.1
2.0
1.8
2.0
Non-energy
0.43
5.63
22.62
28.25
34.17
40.01
45.82
51.63
1.5
11.1
23.1
24.9
25.9
26.3
26.3
26.0
17.2
4.5
3.5
2.6
3.4
Total
28.87
50.57
98.04
113.33
132.00
152.16
174.02
198.30
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.9
Coal
1.31
3.54
8.16
9.84
11.60
13.35
15.09
16.85
4.5
7.0
8.3
8.7
8.8
8.8
8.7
8.5
7.6
3.8
3.1
2.4
2.9
Oil
14.93
28.77
49.25
57.26
67.25
78.09
89.93
103.21
51.7
56.9
50.2
50.5
50.9
51.3
51.7
52.0
4.9
3.1
3.1
2.8
3.0
Natural gas
0.14
1.11
9.63
11.02
13.14
15.53
18.16
21.16
0.5
2.2
9.8
9.7
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.7
18.5
2.7
3.5
3.1
3.2
Electricity
3.30
7.56
15.04
17.62
20.50
23.55
26.84
30.44
11.4
15.0
15.3
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.4
15.3
6.3
3.2
2.9
2.6
2.9
Heat
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.20
9.59
15.96
17.59
19.52
21.64
23.99
26.65
31.9
19.0
16.3
15.5
14.8
14.2
13.8
13.4
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Thailand (BAU)


381
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
141.6
217.7
393.7
471.6
570.2
687.8
828.8
998.7
4.2
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
Population (millions of people)
56.6
61.9
65.7
65.8
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.2
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 2.5 
 3.5 
 6.0 
 7.16 
 8.6 
 10.4 
 12.5 
 15.1 
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.8
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.8 
 1.2 
 2.1 
 2.11 
 2.20 
 2.33 
 2.49 
 2.78 
4.1
0.6
1.0
1.8
1.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 301 
 332 
 343 
 295 
 254 
 223 
 199 
 184 
0.5
-3.0
-2.7
-1.9
-2.5
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 204 
 232 
 249 
 222 
 198 
 180 
 161 
 147 
0.8
-2.3
-2.1
-2.0
-2.1
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 928 
 777 
 560 
 461 
 388 
 331 
 281 
 252 
-2.0
-3.8
-3.3
-2.7
-3.1
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 3.1 
 2.3 
 1.6 
 1.56 
 1.52 
 1.48 
 1.41 
 1.37 
-2.5
-0.9
-0.5
-0.8
-0.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
42.63
72.27
134.97
139.08
145.12
153.72
165.00
183.98
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.7
0.6
1.0
1.8
1.2
Coal
3.82
7.67
16.82
16.31
17.45
18.65
21.10
23.25
9.0
10.6
12.5
11.7
12.0
12.1
12.8
12.6
6.1
-0.6
1.3
2.2
1.3
Oil
17.96
31.88
52.27
56.05
61.04
66.98
72.37
79.67
42.1
44.1
38.7
40.3
42.1
43.6
43.9
43.3
4.4
1.4
1.8
1.7
1.7
Natural gas
4.99
17.36
37.92
37.05
34.53
31.73
29.94
34.17
11.7
24.0
28.1
26.6
23.8
20.6
18.1
18.6
8.4
-0.5
-1.5
0.7
-0.4
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.18
2.56
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
1.4
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.43
0.52
0.49
0.91
1.02
1.14
1.25
1.36
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.6
13.0
2.3
1.8
4.1
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
15.43
14.83
27.47
28.76
31.07
35.23
39.16
42.96
36.2
20.5
20.4
20.7
21.4
22.9
23.7
23.4
2.3
0.9
2.0
2.0
1.8
Biomass
14.69
14.59
23.27
24.12
25.99
28.41
30.94
34.02
34.4
20.2
17.2
17.3
17.9
18.5
18.7
18.5
1.9
0.7
1.7
1.8
1.5
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.00
0.00
0.31
0.77
1.27
1.76
2.25
2.74
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.4
1.5
-
19.6
8.6
4.6
9.1
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
1.53
1.32
1.13
1.00
0.83
0.76
0.0
0.0
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
-
-3.0
-2.7
-2.7
-2.8
Electricity
0.05
0.24
2.35
2.56
2.67
4.06
5.15
5.44
0.1
0.3
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.6
3.1
3.0
16.4
1.7
4.7
3.0
3.4
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
44.18
95.98
165.71
177.00
189.94
196.96 206.74
233.22
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.4
1.3
1.1
1.7
1.4
Coal
11.05
17.77
32.92
29.33
30.90
31.46
38.34
42.96
25.0
18.5
19.9
16.6
16.3
16.0
18.5
18.4
4.5
-2.3
0.7
3.2
1.1
Oil
10.38
10.03
1.68
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.91
23.5
10.4
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
-7.0
-100.0
-
-
-2.4
Natural gas
17.77
61.64
117.01
123.55
125.99
124.28
114.04
121.09
40.2
64.2
70.6
69.8
66.3
63.1
55.2
51.9
7.8
1.1
0.1
-0.3
0.1
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.53
9.82
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.2
4.2
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
4.98
6.03
5.75
10.59
11.91
13.24
14.56
15.84
11.3
6.3
3.5
6.0
6.3
6.7
7.0
6.8
0.6
13.0
2.3
1.8
4.1
Geothermal
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
0.00
0.51
8.36
13.53
21.13
27.97
35.27
42.59
0.0
0.5
5.0
7.6
11.1
14.2
17.1
18.3
-
10.1
7.5
4.3
6.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
8.92
19.24
29.71
29.50
30.20
29.88
29.49
31.83
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
4.9
-0.1
0.1
0.6
0.3
Coal
2.55
4.16
8.35
7.34
7.60
7.58
9.04
9.90
28.6
21.6
28.1
24.9
25.2
25.4
30.6
31.1
4.9
-2.6
0.3
2.7
0.7
Oil
2.55
2.34
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
28.6
12.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
-7.4
-100.0
-
-
-2.4
Natural gas
3.82
12.73
20.99
22.16
22.60
22.29
20.46
21.72
42.9
66.2
70.6
75.1
74.8
74.6
69.4
68.3
7.0
1.1
0.1
-0.3
0.1
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
131.5
169.2
220.6
217.2
221.3
227.4
232.8
252.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2.1
-0.3
0.5
1.0
0.5
Coal
37.5
46.1
64.4
63.6
68.1
72.8
82.3
90.7
28.5
27.3
29.2
29.3
30.8
32.0
35.4
36.0
2.2
-0.3
1.3
2.2
1.4
Oil
44.6
71.5
94.1
88.5
85.8
86.1
84.6
89.5
34.0
42.2
42.7
40.8
38.8
37.8
36.3
35.5
3.0
-1.2
-0.3
0.4
-0.2
Natural gas
49.3
51.6
62.0
65.0
67.3
68.5
65.9
71.8
37.5
30.5
28.1
29.9
30.4
30.1
28.3
28.5
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.6
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
37.8
40.0
43.9
44.6
44.7
44.8
44.4
44.6
0.6
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.1
Coal
37.3
36.7
33.9
34.4
35.0
35.7
36.5
37.3
-0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
Oil
35.0
36.8
38.8
-
-
-
-
38.8
0.4
-
-
-
0.0
Natural gas
40.0
41.6
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
47.9
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
28.87
50.57
98.04
104.66
112.65
123.63
133.52
147.17
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
1.3
1.7
1.8
1.6
Industry
8.65
16.72
30.61
32.63
36.08
41.35
46.47
53.51
30.0
33.1
31.2
31.2
32.0
33.4
34.8
36.4
5.2
1.3
2.4
2.6
2.3
Transportation
9.01
14.61
23.72
21.35
19.08
17.31
14.65
13.63
31.2
28.9
24.2
20.4
16.9
14.0
11.0
9.3
3.9
-2.1
-2.1
-2.4
-2.2
Others
10.78
13.62
21.10
22.43
23.33
24.96
26.58
28.40
37.3
26.9
21.5
21.4
20.7
20.2
19.9
19.3
2.7
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.2
Non-energy
0.43
5.63
22.62
28.25
34.17
40.01
45.82
51.63
1.5
11.1
23.1
27.0
30.3
32.4
34.3
35.1
17.2
4.5
3.5
2.6
3.4
Total
28.87
50.57
98.04
104.66
112.65
123.63
133.52
147.17
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.0
1.3
1.7
1.8
1.6
Coal
1.31
3.54
8.16
8.97
9.86
11.07
12.06
13.35
4.5
7.0
8.3
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.0
9.1
7.6
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.0
Oil
14.93
28.77
49.25
52.90
57.36
62.73
67.49
74.16
51.7
56.9
50.2
50.5
50.9
50.7
50.5
50.4
4.9
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.7
Natural gas
0.14
1.11
9.63
10.24
11.32
12.67
13.91
15.66
0.5
2.2
9.8
9.8
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.6
18.5
1.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
Electricity
3.30
7.56
15.04
16.26
17.37
19.30
21.15
23.48
11.4
15.0
15.3
15.5
15.4
15.6
15.8
16.0
6.3
1.6
1.7
2.0
1.8
Heat
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
9.20
9.59
15.96
16.29
16.74
17.87
18.91
20.52
31.9
19.0
16.3
15.6
14.9
14.5
14.2
13.9
2.2
0.4
0.9
1.4
1.0
Primary energy supply 
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Thailand (APS)


382
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
 17.8 
 36.8 
 154.5 
 216.7 
 296.9 
 397.3 
 519.3 
 662.8 
9.0
7.0
6.2
5.2
6.0
Population (millions of people)
 66.0 
 77.6 
 91.7 
 96.2 
 100.1 
 103.1 
 105.4 
 107.0 
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.6
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.3 
 0.5 
 1.7 
 2.25 
 3.0 
 3.9 
 4.9 
 6.2 
7.6
6.0
5.5
4.9
5.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.8 
 1.12 
 1.37 
 1.61 
 1.82 
 2.06 
4.2
7.9
3.7
2.5
4.0
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,006 
 780 
 453 
 495 
 461 
 417 
 369 
 332 
-3.1
1.8
-1.7
-2.3
-1.2
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 905 
 681 
 364 
 354 
 325 
 290 
 255 
 228 
-3.6
-0.6
-2.0
-2.4
-1.9
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 265 
 326 
 317 
 417 
 397 
 365 
 326 
 295 
0.7
5.7
-1.3
-2.1
-0.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.7 
 0.84 
 0.86 
 0.88 
 0.88 
 0.89 
4.0
3.8
0.4
0.1
1.0
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
17.86
28.74
70.06
107.36
136.84
165.63
191.56
219.92
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.6
8.9
4.4
2.9
4.7
Coal
2.21
4.37
25.18
57.90
74.65
91.31
107.22
123.54
12.4
15.2
35.9
53.9
54.6
55.1
56.0
56.2
10.2
18.1
4.7
3.1
6.6
Oil
2.71
7.81
15.58
22.50
30.25
38.94
47.63
57.87
15.2
27.2
22.2
21.0
22.1
23.5
24.9
26.3
7.2
7.6
5.6
4.0
5.4
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
9.62
9.63
15.42
20.22
23.25
26.57
0.0
3.9
13.7
9.0
11.3
12.2
12.1
12.1
38.1
0.0
7.7
2.8
4.1
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.46
1.25
5.43
4.26
4.95
5.17
5.12
5.14
2.6
4.4
7.8
4.0
3.6
3.1
2.7
2.3
10.4
-4.7
1.9
0.0
-0.2
Geothermal
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
12.47
14.19
14.25
13.08
11.57
10.00
8.34
6.80
69.8
49.4
20.3
12.2
8.5
6.0
4.4
3.1
0.5
-1.7
-2.6
-3.8
-2.9
Biomass
12.47
14.19
14.78
12.59
11.07
9.45
7.78
6.22
69.8
49.4
21.1
11.7
8.1
5.7
4.1
2.8
0.7
-3.2
-2.8
-4.1
-3.4
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
0.3
5.1
4.1
3.7
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-100.0
-
-
9.1
Electricity
-0.55
0.47
0.47
0.51
0.51
0.51
0.0
0.0
-0.8
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
-
-196.8
0.9
0.0
-199.7
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
8.68
26.57
159.81
242.79
323.27
398.90 469.84
546.15
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
12.4
8.7
5.1
3.2
5.0
Coal
2.00
3.14
51.00
155.30
200.30
253.42
313.14
376.39
23.1
11.8
31.9
64.0
62.0
63.5
66.6
68.9
13.8
24.9
5.0
4.0
8.3
Oil
1.31
4.52
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
15.0
17.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.8
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.01
4.36
44.93
37.58
65.05
85.00
96.72
109.56
0.1
16.4
28.1
15.5
20.1
21.3
20.6
20.1
42.9
-3.5
8.5
2.6
3.6
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
5.37
14.55
63.19
49.56
57.57
60.11
59.60
59.82
61.8
54.8
39.5
20.4
17.8
15.1
12.7
11.0
10.4
-4.7
1.9
0.0
-0.2
Geothermal
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
 -   
 -   
0.39
0.35
0.36
0.38
0.37
0.37
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-
-2.4
0.8
0.0
-0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.27
3.56
20.35
43.92
58.59
73.49
88.11
103.29
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
11.7
16.6
5.3
3.5
6.7
Coal
0.89
1.15
12.53
37.51
47.58
59.21
71.99
85.17
69.8
32.3
61.6
85.4
81.2
80.6
81.7
82.5
11.2
24.5
4.7
3.7
8.0
Oil
0.38
1.31
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.0
36.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.1
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.00
1.10
7.74
6.41
11.01
14.28
16.12
18.12
0.2
30.9
38.0
14.6
18.8
19.4
18.3
17.5
36.9
-3.7
8.3
2.4
3.5
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
4.7
12.0
49.0
90.4
117.9
145.2
169.2
195.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.8
13.0
4.9
3.0
5.7
Coal
2.5
4.7
28.0
63.9
82.7
101.2
118.3
135.7
53.2
39.2
57.2
70.7
70.1
69.7
69.9
69.5
10.1
17.9
4.7
3.0
6.5
Oil
2.2
6.4
13.9
19.4
24.4
30.3
35.3
41.7
46.8
53.3
28.5
21.5
20.7
20.9
20.9
21.4
7.7
6.8
4.6
3.2
4.5
Natural gas
0.0
0.9
7.0
7.1
10.8
13.6
15.7
17.9
0.0
7.5
14.3
7.8
9.2
9.4
9.3
9.1
-
0.2
6.8
2.7
3.8
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
22.4
29.0
40.7
37.8
39.0
39.6
40.0
40.5
2.4
-1.5
0.5
0.2
0.0
Coal
19.4
23.5
35.0
35.6
36.2
36.8
37.4
38.0
2.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Oil
29.4
29.7
32.3
-
-
-
-
-
0.4
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
17.2
34.1
49.9
50.4
50.8
51.2
51.6
52.0
4.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
16.06
25.09
56.31
76.63
96.43
115.35
132.39
150.97
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.1
6.4
4.2
2.7
4.0
Industry
4.54
7.86
23.68
37.01
49.13
59.19
68.17
77.97
28.3
31.3
42.0
48.3
50.9
51.3
51.5
51.6
6.8
9.3
4.8
2.8
4.9
Transportation
1.38
3.50
10.46
14.91
19.89
25.79
31.54
37.56
8.6
13.9
18.6
19.5
20.6
22.4
23.8
24.9
8.4
7.3
5.6
3.8
5.2
Others
10.11
13.60
20.95
23.03
25.18
27.57
29.22
31.24
63.0
54.2
37.2
30.1
26.1
23.9
22.1
20.7
3.0
1.9
1.8
1.3
1.6
Non-energy
0.03
0.13
1.23
1.68
2.23
2.81
3.46
4.20
0.2
0.5
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.8
16.3
6.5
5.3
4.1
5.1
Total
16.06
25.09
56.31
76.63
96.43
115.35
132.39
150.97
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.1
6.4
4.2
2.7
4.0
Coal
1.33
3.22
12.65
20.39
27.08
32.10
35.22
38.37
8.3
12.8
22.5
26.6
28.1
27.8
26.6
25.4
9.4
10.0
4.6
1.8
4.5
Oil
2.33
6.51
14.23
19.96
26.74
34.73
42.92
51.82
14.5
26.0
25.3
26.0
27.7
30.1
32.4
34.3
7.5
7.0
5.7
4.1
5.3
Natural gas
0.00
0.02
1.49
2.57
3.46
4.34
5.37
6.53
0.0
0.1
2.6
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.3
-
11.5
5.4
4.2
6.1
Electricity
0.53
1.93
12.14
19.69
26.13
32.25
37.97
44.15
3.3
7.7
21.6
25.7
27.1
28.0
28.7
29.2
13.3
10.2
5.1
3.2
5.3
Heat
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
11.87
13.41
15.81
14.02
13.02
11.94
10.91
10.10
73.9
53.4
28.1
18.3
13.5
10.3
8.2
6.7
1.2
-2.4
-1.6
-1.7
-1.8
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Viet Nam (BAU)


383
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
 17.8 
 36.8 
 154.5 
 216.7 
 296.9 
 397.3 
 519.3 
 662.8 
9.0
7.0
6.2
5.2
6.0
Population (millions of people)
 66.0 
 77.6 
 91.7 
 96.2 
 100.1 
 103.1 
 105.4 
 107.0 
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.6
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 0.3 
 0.5 
 1.7 
 2.25 
 3.0 
 3.9 
 4.9 
 6.2 
7.6
6.0
5.5
4.9
5.3
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.8 
 1.09 
 1.28 
 1.45 
 1.58 
 1.72 
4.2
7.3
2.9
1.7
3.3
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 1,006 
 780 
 453 
 482 
 432 
 376 
 320 
 277 
-3.1
1.2
-2.4
-3.0
-2.0
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 905 
 681 
 364 
 343 
 306 
 266 
 227 
 196 
-3.6
-1.2
-2.5
-3.0
-2.4
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 265 
 326 
 317 
 397 
 356 
 310 
 263 
 226 
0.7
4.6
-2.4
-3.1
-1.3
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.3 
 0.4 
 0.7 
 0.82 
 0.82 
 0.83 
 0.82 
 0.82 
4.0
3.4
0.0
-0.1
0.6
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
-
-
-
-
-
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
 -   
-
-
-
-
-
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
17.86
28.74
70.06
104.37
128.16
149.37
166.23
183.66
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.6
8.3
3.7
2.1
3.9
Coal
2.21
4.37
25.18
54.63
65.11
74.30
81.81
88.71
12.4
15.2
35.9
52.3
50.8
49.7
49.2
48.3
10.2
16.8
3.1
1.8
5.2
Oil
2.71
7.81
15.58
21.66
28.23
35.30
42.05
49.81
15.2
27.2
22.2
20.8
22.0
23.6
25.3
27.1
7.2
6.8
5.0
3.5
4.8
Natural gas
0.00
1.12
9.62
9.37
14.66
18.63
20.98
23.42
0.0
3.9
13.7
9.0
11.4
12.5
12.6
12.8
38.1
-0.5
7.1
2.3
3.6
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
0.46
1.25
5.43
4.16
4.71
4.85
4.67
4.54
2.6
4.4
7.8
4.0
3.7
3.2
2.8
2.5
10.4
-5.2
1.6
-0.7
-0.7
Geothermal
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
12.47
14.19
14.25
14.55
15.46
16.29
16.72
17.18
69.8
49.4
20.3
13.9
12.1
10.9
10.1
9.4
0.5
0.4
1.1
0.5
0.8
Biomass
12.47
14.19
14.78
13.92
14.13
14.15
13.77
13.12
69.8
49.4
21.1
13.3
11.0
9.5
8.3
7.1
0.7
-1.2
0.2
-0.8
-0.5
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.02
0.16
0.86
1.63
2.25
2.87
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
1.1
1.4
1.6
-
53.8
26.0
5.8
22.3
Biofuels
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.19
0.68
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.4
-
-100.0
-
-
24.0
Electricity
-0.55
0.47
0.47
0.51
0.51
0.51
0.0
0.0
-0.8
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
-
-196.8
0.9
0.0
-199.7
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
8.68
26.57
159.81
236.17
305.82 366.66
418.57
470.84
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
12.4
8.1
4.5
2.5
4.4
Coal
2.00
3.14
51.00
148.23
176.49
209.73
245.31
280.77
23.1
11.8
31.9
62.8
57.7
57.2
58.6
59.6
13.8
23.8
3.5
3.0
7.1
Oil
1.31
4.52
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
15.0
17.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.8
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.01
4.36
44.93
36.66
61.89
77.44
85.86
94.51
0.1
16.4
28.1
15.5
20.2
21.1
20.5
20.1
42.9
-4.0
7.8
2.0
3.0
Nuclear
0.00
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Hydro
5.37
14.55
63.19
48.34
54.77
56.44
54.32
52.81
61.8
54.8
39.5
20.5
17.9
15.4
13.0
11.2
10.4
-5.2
1.6
-0.7
-0.7
Geothermal
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
 -   
 -   
0.39
2.94
12.67
23.05
33.07
42.74
0.0
0.0
0.2
1.2
4.1
6.3
7.9
9.1
-
49.6
22.9
6.4
20.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1.27
3.56
20.35
41.47
50.87
59.35
66.81
73.90
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
11.7
15.3
3.7
2.2
5.3
Coal
0.89
1.15
12.53
35.41
41.01
47.46
54.08
60.36
69.8
32.3
61.6
85.4
80.6
80.0
80.9
81.7
11.2
23.1
3.0
2.4
6.5
Oil
0.38
1.31
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.0
36.8
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-6.1
-100.0
-
-
-100.0
Natural gas
0.00
1.10
7.74
6.06
9.86
11.89
12.73
13.54
0.2
30.9
38.0
14.6
19.4
20.0
19.1
18.3
36.9
-4.8
7.0
1.3
2.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
4.7
12.0
49.0
86.1
105.6
123.2
136.4
149.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
9.8
11.9
3.7
2.0
4.6
Coal
2.5
4.7
28.0
60.3
72.2
82.6
90.5
97.7
53.2
39.2
57.2
70.1
68.4
67.1
66.3
65.1
10.1
16.6
3.2
1.7
5.1
Oil
2.2
6.4
13.9
18.7
22.8
27.4
30.9
35.3
46.8
53.3
28.5
21.8
21.6
22.2
22.6
23.5
7.7
6.1
3.9
2.6
3.8
Natural gas
0.0
0.9
7.0
7.0
10.6
13.2
15.0
17.0
0.0
7.5
14.3
8.1
10.0
10.7
11.0
11.3
-
-0.1
6.5
2.6
3.6
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
22.4
29.0
40.7
38.3
40.3
41.6
42.6
43.7
2.4
-1.2
0.8
0.5
0.3
Coal
19.4
23.5
35.0
36.0
37.0
38.0
39.0
40.0
2.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
Oil
29.4
29.7
32.3
-
-
-
-
-
0.4
-
-
-
-
Natural gas
17.2
34.1
49.9
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
4.4
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
16.06
25.09
56.31
74.36
90.90
105.61
117.66
130.15
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.1
5.7
3.6
2.1
3.4
Industry
4.54
7.86
23.68
35.47
45.37
52.62
58.39
64.29
28.3
31.3
42.0
47.7
49.9
49.8
49.6
49.4
6.8
8.4
4.0
2.0
4.1
Transportation
1.38
3.50
10.46
14.46
18.80
23.82
28.49
33.23
8.6
13.9
18.6
19.4
20.7
22.6
24.2
25.5
8.4
6.7
5.1
3.4
4.7
Others
10.11
13.60
20.95
22.75
24.50
26.36
27.31
28.43
63.0
54.2
37.2
30.6
27.0
25.0
23.2
21.8
3.0
1.7
1.5
0.8
1.2
Non-energy
0.03
0.13
1.23
1.68
2.23
2.81
3.46
4.20
0.2
0.5
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.2
16.3
6.5
5.3
4.1
5.1
Total
16.06
25.09
56.31
74.36
90.90
105.61
117.66
130.15
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5.1
5.7
3.6
2.1
3.4
Coal
1.33
3.22
12.65
19.23
24.09
26.84
27.73
28.35
8.3
12.8
22.5
25.9
26.5
25.4
23.6
21.8
9.4
8.7
3.4
0.5
3.3
Oil
2.33
6.51
14.23
19.13
24.74
31.16
37.34
43.77
14.5
26.0
25.3
25.7
27.2
29.5
31.7
33.6
7.5
6.1
5.0
3.5
4.6
Natural gas
0.00
0.02
1.49
2.66
3.85
5.14
6.48
7.95
0.0
0.1
2.6
3.6
4.2
4.9
5.5
6.1
-
12.3
6.8
4.5
6.9
Electricity
0.53
1.93
12.14
19.17
24.75
29.68
33.88
38.13
3.3
7.7
21.6
25.8
27.2
28.1
28.8
29.3
13.3
9.6
4.5
2.5
4.7
Heat
 -   
 -   
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
-
Others
11.87
13.41
15.81
14.18
13.48
12.80
12.23
11.95
73.9
53.4
28.1
19.1
14.8
12.1
10.4
9.2
1.2
-2.1
-1.0
-0.7
-1.1
Primary energy supply
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy consumption
Viet Nam (APS)


384
ENERGY OUTLOOK AND ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL IN EAST ASIA 2019
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
9,064
12,713
16,598
18,394
20,260
22,629
25,118
27,677
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
Population (millions of people)
250
282
321
333
345
356
367
376
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.6
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 36.31 
 45.06 
 51.64 
 55.24 
 58.8 
 63.5 
 68.5 
 73.6 
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 7.67 
 8.06 
 6.81 
 6.50 
 6.27 
 6.08 
 5.88 
 5.70 
-0.5
-0.9
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 211 
 179 
 132 
 118 
 107 
 96 
 86 
 77 
-1.9
-2.2
-2.0
-2.1
-2.1
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 143 
 122 
 92 
 82 
 75 
 67 
 61 
 55 
-1.8
-2.1
-2.0
-2.0
-2.0
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 145 
 121 
 83 
 72 
 64 
 56 
 50 
 44 
-2.2
-2.9
-2.4
-2.4
-2.5
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.69 
 0.67 
 0.63 
 0.61 
 0.60 
 0.59 
 0.58 
 0.57 
-0.3
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 189 
 221 
 255 
 267 
 278 
 292 
 306 
 319 
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.756 
 0.785 
 0.793 
 0.801 
 0.805 
 0.819 
 0.834 
 0.849 
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,915.1
2,273.3 2,188.3 2,164.6 2,160.6 2,167.3
2,155.3 2,143.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.5
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
Coal
460.3
533.6
374.1
334.6
319.8
311.4
301.4
289.3
24.0
23.5
17.1
15.5
14.8
14.4
14.0
13.5
-0.8
-2.2
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
Oil
756.8
871.1
794.0
765.7
737.3
719.0
697.3
676.9
39.5
38.3
36.3
35.4
34.1
33.2
32.4
31.6
0.2
-0.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
Natural gas
438.2
547.6
646.4
663.6
681.0
702.4
717.1
724.6
22.9
24.1
29.5
30.7
31.5
32.4
33.3
33.8
1.6
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.5
Nuclear
159.4
207.9
216.4
210.0
210.2
208.7
195.9
190.7
8.3
9.1
9.9
9.7
9.7
9.6
9.1
8.9
1.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.9
-0.5
Hydro
23.5
21.8
21.6
25.0
25.2
25.4
25.5
25.7
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
-0.3
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.7
Geothermal
14.1
13.1
9.0
13.5
18.8
20.8
23.6
26.3
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
-1.8
8.4
4.5
2.3
4.4
Others
62.7
78.2
126.9
152.2
168.2
179.6
194.4
209.5
3.3
3.4
5.8
7.0
7.8
8.3
9.0
9.8
2.9
3.7
1.7
1.6
2.0
Biomass
61.5
67.3
60.6
65.9
68.5
70.7
72.2
73.8
3.2
3.0
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
-0.1
1.7
0.7
0.4
0.8
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.3
2.1
22.4
39.3
47.6
57.4
69.4
81.4
0.0
0.1
1.0
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.2
3.8
18.5
11.9
3.9
3.6
5.3
Biofuels
0.7
5.9
38.2
42.5
47.5
46.9
48.3
49.7
0.0
0.3
1.7
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
17.1
2.2
1.0
0.6
1.1
Electricity
0.2
2.9
5.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
15.1
-4.4
0.0
0.0
-0.9
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3,202.8 4,025.9 4,297.0 4,462.4 4,622.7 4,831.2 5,016.1
5,173.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
Coal
1,699.6
2,129.5
1,471.0
1,316.0
1,291.7
1,302.6
1,302.9
1,279.3
53.1
52.9
34.2
29.5
27.9
27.0
26.0
24.7
-0.6
-2.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.6
Oil
130.6
118.5
38.8
14.8
13.8
11.9
11.5
10.8
4.1
2.9
0.9
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
-4.7
-17.5
-2.2
-1.0
-5.0
Natural gas
381.7
634.3
1,372.6
1,512.1
1,581.3
1,671.7
1,778.9
1,854.2
11.9
15.8
31.9
33.9
34.2
34.6
35.5
35.8
5.3
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
Nuclear
611.6
797.7
830.3
805.8
806.6
800.8
751.8
731.9
19.1
19.8
19.3
18.1
17.4
16.6
15.0
14.1
1.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.9
-0.5
Hydro
273.2
253.2
251.0
290.5
293.2
295.4
297.1
298.4
8.5
6.3
5.8
6.5
6.3
6.1
5.9
5.8
-0.3
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.7
Geothermal
16.0
14.6
18.7
28.4
39.9
44.2
50.0
55.9
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
0.6
8.6
4.5
2.4
4.5
Others
90.1
78.1
314.6
494.8
596.2
704.6
824.0
943.3
2.8
1.9
7.3
11.1
12.9
14.6
16.4
18.2
5.1
9.5
3.6
3.0
4.5
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
513.0
668.0
591.4
560.4
551.2
549.9
550.0
544.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-1.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
Coal
396.0
501.6
340.8
303.1
289.3
281.8
272.9
262.0
77.2
75.1
57.6
54.1
52.5
51.2
49.6
48.2
-0.6
-2.3
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
Oil
27.2
29.6
8.9
3.5
3.2
2.7
2.6
2.4
5.3
4.4
1.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
-4.4
-17.2
-2.3
-1.1
-5.1
Natural gas
89.7
136.9
241.7
253.8
258.7
265.4
274.5
279.6
17.5
20.5
40.9
45.3
46.9
48.3
49.9
51.4
4.0
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.6
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,314.7
1,532.0 1,382.9 1,324.4 1,292.2 1,277.6 1,255.4 1,228.9
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.2
-0.9
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
Coal
497.1
576.3
404.1
361.4
345.4
336.3
325.5
312.5
37.8
37.6
29.2
27.3
26.7
26.3
25.9
25.4
-0.8
-2.2
-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
Oil
545.6
615.8
574.4
548.0
521.3
502.6
482.2
464.1
41.5
40.2
41.5
41.4
40.3
39.3
38.4
37.8
0.2
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
-0.8
Natural gas
272.0
339.8
404.4
415.0
425.5
438.7
447.7
452.3
20.7
22.2
29.2
31.3
32.9
34.3
35.7
36.8
1.6
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.4
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
37.1
37.1
41.9
43.6
45.0
46.7
48.4
49.7
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.7
Coal
36.9
36.5
37.1
37.3
38.4
39.8
41.1
42.0
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.5
Oil
41.2
34.5
37.5
36.9
37.2
37.5
37.9
38.2
-0.4
-0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
Natural gas
36.6
39.9
48.8
51.2
52.6
54.2
55.7
57.0
1.2
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.6
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,293.5 1,546.2 1,520.1
1,514.8
1,513.1
1,521.6
1,519.9
1,514.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Industry
283.7
332.3
261.6
259.1
260.3
264.0
265.3
265.0
21.9
21.5
17.2
17.1
17.2
17.4
17.5
17.5
-0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
Transportation
487.6
588.2
629.0
612.6
595.6
583.6
569.8
559.0
37.7
38.0
41.4
40.4
39.4
38.4
37.5
36.9
1.0
-0.5
-0.5
-0.4
-0.5
Others
403.2
472.7
506.3
515.8
525.4
537.3
544.9
549.4
31.2
30.6
33.3
34.1
34.7
35.3
35.8
36.3
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.3
Non-energy
119.0
153.0
123.3
127.2
131.8
136.7
140.0
141.5
9.2
9.9
8.1
8.4
8.7
9.0
9.2
9.3
0.1
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.6
Total
1,293.5 1,546.2 1,520.1
1,514.8
1,513.1
1,521.6
1,519.9
1,514.8
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Coal
55.7
32.6
19.5
18.3
17.5
16.8
16.0
15.1
4.3
2.1
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
-4.1
-1.3
-0.8
-1.1
-1.0
Oil
683.3
793.4
757.9
735.9
710.5
694.7
674.0
654.5
52.8
51.3
49.9
48.6
47.0
45.7
44.3
43.2
0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
-0.6
Natural gas
303.0
359.9
333.2
337.2
344.7
354.2
358.4
359.9
23.4
23.3
21.9
22.3
22.8
23.3
23.6
23.8
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.3
Electricity
226.5
301.0
325.2
336.6
349.1
365.6
380.6
393.9
17.5
19.5
21.4
22.2
23.1
24.0
25.0
26.0
1.5
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
Heat
2.2
5.3
5.5
5.6
5.8
6.1
6.3
6.5
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
3.8
0.4
0.9
0.6
0.7
Others
22.9
54.1
79.0
81.2
85.4
84.1
84.6
85.0
1.8
3.5
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.1
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.3
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
United States (BAU)


385
Results Summary Tables
AAGR(%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
GDP (billions of 2010 US dollars)
9,064
12,713
16,598
18,394
20,260
22,629
25,118
27,677
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
Population (millions of people)
250
282
321
333
345
356
367
376
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.6
GDP per capita (thousands of 2010 US$/person)
 36.31 
 45.06 
 51.64 
 55.24 
 58.8 
 63.5 
 68.5 
 73.6 
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
Primary energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
 7.67 
 8.06 
 6.81 
 6.43 
 6.05 
 5.71 
 5.36 
 5.08 
-0.5
-1.1
-1.2
-1.2
-1.2
Primary energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 
2010 US dollars)
 211 
 179 
 132 
 116 
 103 
 90 
 78 
 69 
-1.9
-2.5
-2.5
-2.6
-2.6
Final energy consumption per unit of GDP (toe/million 2010 
US dollars)
 143 
 122 
 92 
 82 
 73 
 64 
 56 
 50 
-1.8
-2.2
-2.4
-2.5
-2.4
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (t-C/million 2010 US dollars)
 145 
 121 
 83 
 71 
 59 
 48 
 40 
 33 
-2.2
-3.3
-3.7
-3.9
-3.7
CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy consumption 
(t-C/toe)
 0.69 
 0.67 
 0.63 
 0.61 
 0.57 
 0.54 
 0.51 
 0.47 
-0.3
-0.8
-1.2
-1.3
-1.2
Automobile ownership volume (millions of vehicles)
 189 
 221 
 255 
 267 
 278 
 292 
 306 
 319 
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Automobile ownership volume per capita (vehicles per 
person)
 0.756 
 0.785 
 0.793 
 0.801 
 0.805 
 0.819 
 0.834 
 0.849 
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,915.1
2,273.3 2,188.3 2,140.3 2,085.3 2,033.8 1,966.0 1,910.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.5
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
Coal
460.3
533.6
374.1
319.4
259.9
213.7
171.3
129.7
24.0
23.5
17.1
14.9
12.5
10.5
8.7
6.8
-0.8
-3.1
-3.9
-4.9
-4.1
Oil
756.8
871.1
794.0
766.2
712.7
662.5
611.7
567.6
39.5
38.3
36.3
35.8
34.2
32.6
31.1
29.7
0.2
-0.7
-1.4
-1.5
-1.3
Natural gas
438.2
547.6
646.4
647.5
648.7
654.5
648.0
626.6
22.9
24.1
29.5
30.3
31.1
32.2
33.0
32.8
1.6
0.0
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
Nuclear
159.4
207.9
216.4
210.0
210.2
208.7
197.7
206.5
8.3
9.1
9.9
9.8
10.1
10.3
10.1
10.8
1.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
Hydro
23.5
21.8
21.6
25.0
25.2
25.4
25.5
25.7
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
-0.3
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.7
Geothermal
14.1
13.1
9.0
13.5
26.1
33.2
38.0
42.8
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.6
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
-1.8
8.4
9.4
2.6
6.4
Others
62.7
78.2
126.9
158.9
202.5
235.7
273.9
311.3
3.3
3.4
5.8
7.4
9.7
11.6
13.9
16.3
2.9
4.6
4.0
2.8
3.7
Biomass
61.5
67.3
60.6
67.7
70.8
73.3
74.6
76.0
3.2
3.0
2.8
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
-0.1
2.2
0.8
0.4
0.9
Solar, Wind, 
Ocean
0.3
2.1
22.4
43.3
68.7
91.3
121.4
151.4
0.0
0.1
1.0
2.0
3.3
4.5
6.2
7.9
18.5
14.1
7.7
5.2
8.0
Biofuels
0.7
5.9
38.2
43.3
58.4
66.6
73.3
79.3
0.0
0.3
1.7
2.0
2.8
3.3
3.7
4.2
17.1
2.5
4.4
1.8
3.0
Electricity
0.2
2.9
5.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
15.1
-4.4
0.0
0.0
-0.9
TWh
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
3,202.8 4,025.9 4,297.0 4,414.9 4,512.4 4,664.8 4,797.2 4,897.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
1.2
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
Coal
1,699.6
2,129.5
1,471.0
1,256.6
1,038.3
870.9
705.2
525.6
53.1
52.9
34.2
28.5
23.0
18.7
14.7
10.7
-0.6
-3.1
-3.6
-4.9
-4.0
Oil
130.6
118.5
38.8
33.0
27.1
22.6
18.1
13.3
4.1
2.9
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
-4.7
-3.2
-3.7
-5.2
-4.2
Natural gas
381.7
634.3
1,372.6
1,449.8
1,485.3
1,556.8
1,598.1
1,545.6
11.9
15.8
31.9
32.8
32.9
33.4
33.3
31.6
5.3
1.1
0.7
-0.1
0.5
Nuclear
611.6
797.7
830.3
805.8
806.6
800.8
758.5
792.5
19.1
19.8
19.3
18.3
17.9
17.2
15.8
16.2
1.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
Hydro
273.2
253.2
251.0
290.5
293.2
295.4
297.1
298.4
8.5
6.3
5.8
6.6
6.5
6.3
6.2
6.1
-0.3
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.7
Geothermal
16.0
14.6
18.7
28.4
55.5
70.8
81.1
91.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.2
1.5
1.7
1.9
0.6
8.6
9.6
2.6
6.6
Others
90.1
78.1
314.6
550.9
806.3
1,047.5
1,339.1
1,630.7
2.8
1.9
7.3
12.5
17.9
22.5
27.9
33.3
5.1
11.9
6.6
4.5
6.8
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
513.0
668.0
591.4
537.9
476.7
433.4
389.5
334.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-1.9
-2.1
-2.6
-2.3
Coal
396.0
501.6
340.8
288.0
230.1
185.3
144.4
104.6
77.2
75.1
57.6
53.5
48.3
42.7
37.1
31.3
-0.6
-3.3
-4.3
-5.6
-4.6
Oil
27.2
29.6
8.9
7.7
6.2
5.1
4.0
2.9
5.3
4.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.9
-4.4
-3.0
-4.0
-5.4
-4.4
Natural gas
89.7
136.9
241.7
242.2
240.4
243.1
241.1
226.5
17.5
20.5
40.9
45.0
50.4
56.1
61.9
67.8
4.0
0.0
0.0
-0.7
-0.3
Mt-C
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,314.7
1,532.0 1,382.9 1,298.0
1,186.1
1,094.1
998.8
902.2
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.2
-1.3
-1.7
-1.9
-1.7
Coal
497.1
576.3
404.1
344.9
280.7
230.8
185.0
140.1
37.8
37.6
29.2
26.6
23.7
21.1
18.5
15.5
-0.8
-3.1
-3.9
-4.9
-4.1
Oil
545.6
615.8
574.4
548.5
500.6
455.3
410.4
372.6
41.5
40.2
41.5
42.3
42.2
41.6
41.1
41.3
0.2
-0.9
-1.8
-2.0
-1.7
Natural gas
272.0
339.8
404.4
404.6
404.8
408.0
403.4
389.5
20.7
22.2
29.2
31.2
34.1
37.3
40.4
43.2
1.6
0.0
0.1
-0.5
-0.2
%
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
37.1
37.1
41.9
43.8
46.0
48.6
51.3
53.7
0.5
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
Coal
36.9
36.5
37.1
37.5
38.8
40.4
42.0
43.2
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.6
Oil
41.2
34.5
37.5
37.1
37.6
38.2
38.8
39.3
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
Natural gas
36.6
39.9
48.8
51.5
53.1
55.1
57.0
58.7
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.7
Mtoe
Share, %
AAGR (%)
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990
2000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
1990-
2015 
2015-
2020 
2020-
2030 
2030-
2040 
2015-
2040 
Total
1,293.5 1,546.2 1,520.1 1,503.9 1,476.4 1,449.7 1,413.7 1,379.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
Industry
283.7
332.3
261.6
257.5
255.5
254.8
250.3
243.2
21.9
21.5
17.2
17.1
17.3
17.6
17.7
17.6
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
-0.5
-0.3
Transportation
487.6
588.2
629.0
610.0
582.2
553.3
523.6
501.4
37.7
38.0
41.4
40.6
39.4
38.2
37.0
36.4
1.0
-0.6
-1.0
-1.0
-0.9
Others
403.2
472.7
506.3
509.1
506.9
504.9
499.7
493.0
31.2
30.6
33.3
33.9
34.3
34.8
35.4
35.7
0.9
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Non-energy
119.0
153.0
123.3
127.2
131.8
136.7
140.0
141.5
9.2
9.9
8.1
8.5
8.9
9.4
9.9
10.3
0.1
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.6
Total
1,293.5 1,546.2 1,520.1 1,503.9 1,476.4 1,449.7 1,413.7 1,379.0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0.6
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
Coal
55.7
32.6
19.5
18.2
17.2
16.2
15.1
13.9
4.3
2.1
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
-4.1
-1.4
-1.1
-1.5
-1.3
Oil
683.3
793.4
757.9
732.3
684.2
638.9
591.6
550.9
52.8
51.3
49.9
48.7
46.3
44.1
41.9
39.9
0.4
-0.7
-1.4
-1.5
-1.3
Natural gas
303.0
359.9
333.2
333.4
332.9
332.4
327.9
321.4
23.4
23.3
21.9
22.2
22.5
22.9
23.2
23.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
Electricity
226.5
301.0
325.2
333.2
341.4
354.4
366.2
375.8
17.5
19.5
21.4
22.2
23.1
24.4
25.9
27.3
1.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
Heat
2.2
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.0
6.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
3.8
0.3
0.6
0.1
0.4
Others
22.9
54.1
79.0
81.3
94.9
101.7
106.8
111.0
1.8
3.5
5.2
5.4
6.4
7.0
7.6
8.1
5.1
0.6
2.3
0.9
1.4
Primary energy consumption
Power generation output
Power generation input
CO2 Emissions 
Energy and economic indicators
Thermal efficiency
Final energy demand
United States (APS)