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MMLU-Pro / 10423 / Say the incidence of a disease D is about 5 cases per 100 people (i.e., P(D) =…

Problem

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question

Say the incidence of a disease D is about 5 cases per 100 people (i.e., P(D) = 0.05). Let Boolean random variable D mean a patient “has disease D” and let Boolean random variable TP stand for "tests positive." Tests for disease D are known to be very accurate in the sense that the probability of testing positive when you have the disease is 0.99, and the probability of testing negative when you do not have the disease is 0.97. What is P(D | TP), the posterior probability that you have disease D when the test is positive?

category

computer science

options

  1. 0.0495
  2. 0.02
  3. 0.05
  4. 0.1
  5. 0.99
  6. 0.635
  7. 0.078
  8. 0.25
  9. 0.97

src

ori_mmlu-machine_learning

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Source and history

upstream_id / Original problem ID
10423
task_id
743ca81b-3b8e-5e52-916d-fd6346a1370e
task_key
default--test--10423
task_revision_id
1
config / split
default / test

Official source

initial import