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MMLU-Pro / 5292 / What has been the impact of nuclear deterrence on international politics…

Problem

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question

What has been the impact of nuclear deterrence on international politics post-Cold War?

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  1. There is a developing scholarly trend toward proliferation pessimism, a pattern which has gained momentum rather than subsided with the end of the Cold War. There is concern that accidental war may occur, either through misperception, psychological or technical problems that can lead to spiralling tensions which result in a failure of deterrence policy. In addition, normal accidents resulting from the inability of a state to capably anticipate human-machine interactions in the complexities of the international (and anarchical) system may also occur.
  2. Proliferation optimists dispute the claim that nuclear technology leads to a propensity of the holding actor towards war. They do concede that there is the risk that terrorists acquiring the weapon could create an existential threat to the international system, although the threat is not yet a reality. Furthermore, the ability to retaliate can eliminate an opponent's potential gain.
  3. Despite the recognition that the ability to retaliate (the secure second-strike capability) produces a situation known as crisis stability, there is no consensus on the impact of nuclear capabilities, whether a source of stabilization or an existential threat. However there is agreement that the spread of WMD capacity to non-state actors would be fundamentally detrimental to international security based on the recognition that existing deterrence strategies and capabilities do not address the use of nuclear weapons. Indeed whilst the possibility exists, states will have to heighten security efforts.
  4. Deterrence has proved to have been a source of stabilization during the Cold War but proliferation pessimists contend that new states' development programs do not provide sufficient guarantees that the state sponsors will act as good custodians. Weak state structures might result in sabotage, accidental use, or even theft. There is also the problem of states developing technology under the guise of deterrence whilst having ulterior motives. Domestic pressures may result in a regime gravitating towards nuclear war fighting strategies to win a rapid victory and strengthen status.

src

ori_mmlu-security_studies

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Source and history

upstream_id / Original problem ID
5292
task_id
ba417af3-e774-51f9-bf5d-4c55d7f724a9
task_key
default--test--5292
task_revision_id
1
config / split
default / test

Official source

initial import