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MMLU / A recent poll reported that 43% of Americans approve of the job the president is…

Problem

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question

A recent poll reported that 43% of Americans approve of the job the president is doing, with a margin of sampling error of ±3.2% at a 95% level of confidence. Which of these correctly interprets that margin of error?

choices

  1. There is a 3.2% percent chance that the proportion of all Americans who approve of the job the president is doing is not 43%.
  2. There is a 95% chance that the proportion of all Americans who approve of the job the president is doing is 43%.
  3. About 95% of polls conducted in this way will find that between 39.8% and 46.2% of those sampled approve of the job the president is doing.
  4. About 95% of polls conducted in this way will give a sample proportion within 3.2 percentage points of the actual proportion of all Americans who approve of the job the president is doing.

subject

high_school_statistics

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